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Agro-climate Cropping Pattern Changes Based on

Climate Change Projections with HadCM3 A2 and B2


Climate Change Scenario For Reducing the Risk of
Harvest Failure in Ngijo Watershed, Yogyakarta
Gilang Arya D
a
, Andung Bayu S
a
, Fitria Nucifera
a
, Emilya Nurjani
b

a
Master Program in Planning and Management of Coastal Area and Watershed, Faculty of
Geography, UGM;
email : aryadipayana@gmail.com, bayusekaranom@gmail.com, fnucifera@gmail.com
b
Department of Environmental Geography, Faculty of Geography, UGM
email: n_emilya@geo.ugm.ac.id

ABSTRACT
Global warming has become serious problem that must be facing by all people in
the world today. Global warming, marked by increasing in earth surface temperature, is
caused by increasing green house gas (GHG) emission in the atmosphere. Climate has great
impacts toward almost all majors aspect of human live, especially in agriculture. Weather
and climate become one factor of physical aspects that have very important role for crop
production. As one of human aspects that highly vulnerable to the climate change,
mitigation and adaptation strategies in agriculture must cropping pattern changes
The purposes of this research are: to analyze the present climate of research location
and the future potential climate changes based on HadCM3 A2 & B2 Climate Scenario; to
analyze present agro-climate zone and and the projected agro-climate zone; and to give
advice of the future crop pattern in the research area. Methods used in this research consist
of downscaling HadCM3 A2 & B2 Climate Scenario and classified the result based on crop
pattern recommendation (Balitklimat, 2007)
Based on the downscaled climate scenario result from 2010-2099, the rainfall in
research area will be continuously decreasing. At present climate, the rainfall is about
1300-2300 mm/year, while in the end of period (2071-2099), the rainfall will be about 900-
1500 mm/year. At present climate, Ngijo Watershed classified as Zone II and Zone III
Agro-climate zone, but due the potential climate change that might be happen, it mostly
classified as zone I to zone II at the end of period. Potential changes of agro-climate zone
in Ngijo watershed might cause reduction in crop production and crop failure. Based on the
future agro-climate zone, soybean and peanut are the plants that best suited for the future
climate. Although soybean and peanuts might caused higher erosion and surface runoff,
giving mulch and manure as organic fertilizer might work as well to reduce the erosion and
surface runoff.

Keywords: Climate Change, Climate Projention, HadCM3, Agro-climate Zone, Crop
Pattern, Environmental Management

I. INTRODUCTION
Background
Global warming has become a serious problem that facing the world today. Global
warming is marked by increasing average temperature of the earths surface that is that is
triggered by increased emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (Figure 1a).
IPCC report in 2001 stated that average temperature of the earth's surface and temperature
of seas surface has raising amount 0.6 C since the mid 19
th
century. (Figure
1b). The temperature rises beyond the threshold of natural climate change that has
been recorded in the last 1000 years (Crowley, 2000 in WHO, 2007).

Figure 1a Global temperature changes (1880-2000) (IPCC, 2000 in Susandi, 2006). Figure 1b. Increasing CO
2

concentration in the world (1700-2000) (Susandi, 2006)

Agriculture is one of several aspect that depends and vulnerable to climate change
(Tyasjono, 1999). Weather and climate is environmental factor that an important role in
crop production. Recently, traditional farmers have been discussing about season changing.
Local wisdom of farmers about growing season is disrupted by climate change. Many
farmers got crop failure due to an abnormal season. Most area of Sumatera experienced
delay of rainy season approximately 10 up to 20 days and delay of dry season
approximately 10 up to 60 days (Naylor, 2007).
Facing the impact of climate change requires a mitigation and adaptation efforts.
One of mitigation and adaptation efforts in agriculture is changing in cropping patterns
based on forecasting of future climate (Wolfe et al, 2007; Moediarta dkk, 2007). IPCC
(2000) develop scenarios of future climate based on condition of green house gases
emissions and published in Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES). SRES scenario
that often used in some research (WWF and ITB, 2007; Kurniawan et al, 2009) is A2 and
B2 climate scenario. B2 climate scenario is considered as a basic scenario that produced
maximum temperature forecast at 1,4
o
C in 2050 and further increase up to 2,6
o
C in 2100.
A2 climate scenario produced increasing temperature in Indonesia up to more than 3
o
C in
2100 (WWF and ITB, 2007; Forner dan Santoso, 2006).
The purpose of this research is (i) determine condition of climate change based on
A2 and B2 climate scenario in three climatic period (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-
2100) in study area, (ii) determine an existing agro-climate zone (1970-2009), (iii)
determine a projected agro-climate zone based on A2 and B2 climate scenario in three
b a
climatic period (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) in study area and (iv) determine
suggestion of agro-climate zone based on climate change scenario.
Study Area
Ngijo watershed covered in 3 (three) regency in Yogyakarta Special Province,
namely Sleman, Bantul and Gunungkidul. Ngijo watershed has 56,94 km
2
of area extend
(See Figure 2). Ngijo Watershed includes four districts, namely Prambanan, Berbah,
Piyungan, and Patuk. According to physical aspect, Ngijo Watershed has heterogeneous
physical condition, in terms of climate, topography, geology, soil type and land use. This
area has rainfall variability, it can be observed (in 1971-2009) mean annual rainfall at seven
station, namely Tanjungtirto Station (1979 mm/year), Sorogedug (1933 mm/year),
Karangploso (1587 mm/year), Kalasan (1779 mm/year), Terong (1059 mm/year), Patuk
(2407 mm/year), dan Gantiwarno (1547 mm/year).


Figure 2. Location of study area (Ngijo Watershed)

II. RESEARCH METHODS
References
Climate is a complex system, formed by components include atmosphere,
hydrosphere, land cover, ice and biosphere. These components form an interaction and a
dynamic energy balance (Forner and Santoso, 2006). Climate change based on shifting
meteorological conditions in a long time. This change was caused by single parameter, such
as rainfall and temperature, but usually caused by combination of several weather
components that cause weather conditions are much different (Boroughs, 2005).
Climate change scenarios is a logical illustration of future climate conditions which
simplified based on data and relationships of consistent climate parameter (IPCC, 2000). A
climate change scenario is closely related to projections of future climate conditions
(UKCIP, 2009). IPCC has introduced a climate change projections based on carbon dioxide
emissions scenarios that assume no climate policy (Kurniawan et.al, 2009) (Figure 3).
General Circulation Model (GCM) is a model to predict climate response to
projections of greenhouse gases for global scale (Praskievicz and Chang, 2009) (Figure 4a).
Downscaling process is a method which describes the results of GCM prediction into
regional and local scales (Wilby et al, 2004) (Figure 4b). Wilby (2004) explained that
downscaling process based on statistical process with viewing a climate conditions on local
scale. There are three main techniques in downscaling process included weather
classification, regression model and weather generators (Wilby, 2004).


Figure 3. CO
2
emissions scenarios used in IPCC SRES scenarios showed the greatest CO
2

emissions in A1F1 and A2 scenarios, whereas the ideal scenarios is B2 (IPCC, 2000)


Figure 4a (left). GCM views a complexity of climatic conditions on three-dimensional
(Barry and Chorley, 2003), Figure 4b (right) Adjustment of climate projections into
the local scale with downscaling method (Wilby et al, 2004)

Methods
Types of data, data availability, and data sources can be seen in Table 1. Station
tables used are listed in Table 2.
Table 1. Types of Data, Data Availabilty, and Data Source
Purpose Types of Data Information Data Source Used to
Climate condition
projections with
HadCM3 A2 dan
B2
Daily Rainfall Years1971-2001
BMKG DIY dan
PSDA Opak-Oya
Predictant file in
Downscaling
General Circulation
Model
Years1961-2099 Grid Opak
Watershed HadCM3 A2 and
B2 climate model scenario
http://www.cccsn
.ca
Input for
Downscaling
NCEP/ NCAR
Reanalysis
Years 1961-2000 A2 and B2
scenario
http://www.ncep.
noaa.gov
Input for
Downscaling
Existing condition
Agro-climate
Zone in Ngijo
Watershed
Daily Rainfall Years 1971-2001
BMKG DIY dan
PSDA Opak-Oya
Climate type and
Rainfall Pattern for
Balitklimat
classification

Table 1
Tujuan Jenis Data Keterangan Sumber Data Digunakan untuk
Agro-climate
Zone projections
in 2010-2100
Results of climate
conditions
projections A2 and
B2 scenarios in
2010-2100

Years 2010-2100
Downscaling
results with An
Automated
Statistical
Downscaling
Models
Climate type and
Rainfall Pattern for
Balitklimat
classification
Table 2. Types of Data, Data Availabilty, and Data Source
Station
Location Rainfall Data
(Years)
Y X
Dolo 7
o
44' 14" 110
o
26' 00" 1971-2001
Juwangen 7
o
46' 02" 110
o
26' 47" 1971-2001
Kalasan 1971-2001
Mrican 1971-2001
Playen 7
o
56' 44" 110
o
33' 11" 1971-2001
Tanjungtirto 7
o
47' 39" 110
o
27' 47" 1971-2001
Terong 7
o
53' 28" 110
o
27' 06" 1971-2001
Source : BMKG DIY and BPDAS Opak-Oya
HadCM3 is one of GCM model which developed by Hadley Climate Center.
HadCM3 is the third version of Hadley Climate Center. The model was developed to do
calculations for each grid (3,75
o
x 2,5
o
latitude-longitude resolution) (Collins, Tett, dan
Cooper, 2001). HadCM3 calculate an interaction between atmosphere and ocean for daily
time scale (Jhons et al, 2003).
Climate projections with SRES IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios did using MATLAB 8
Software. MATLAB 8 Software has had ASD (an automated regression based statistical
downscaling model) extensions (Hessami et al, 2008). This model based on SDSM
(Statistical Downscaling Model). SDSM has been using extensively to construct scenarios
of climate change, especially extreme conditions on precipitation and temperature in
several location based on GCM grid data (Hessami et al, 2008). Input in this method is
Predictant File data (daily rainfall data 1971-2001), GCM HadCM3 data and NCEP
Reanalysis data. Output to be generated is tabulation form of daily rainfall data 2011-2011
based on previous rainfall data which is processed by stochastic parameter and linear
regression (Figure 5). NCEP/NCAR reanalysis covers a variety of temporal scales,
covering 4 hours, daily, and monthly entire surface of the earth that are arranged in a grid
system with a spatial resolution of 210 km x 210 km (Kalnay et al, 1996). The composition
of climatic parameters contained in the HadCM3 model and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis
are presented in Figure 6.
Method to determine agro-climate zone using Balitklimat (2007). Recommendation
of cropping patterns based on rainfall availability. Agro-climate zone closely related to
cropping patterns. Rainfall classification in Indonesia can be divided into several classes
(See Table 3). Rainfall is required in determination of agro-climate zone to give
recommendation of cropping patterns. Determination of rainfall patterns based on Trejor
(1976) method with modification and resulted four classes of rainfall patterns. (Table 4).
Method of determining the agro-climate zones can be seen in Table 8.

Figure 5. ASD scheme (An automated regression-based statistical downscaling model)
(Hessami et al., 2008); And Figure 6. Climate factor variable for predictor file in NCEP/NCAR
reanalysis and HadCM3 (Wilby and Dawson, 2008)

Table 3. Rainfall Classification

Table 4. Rainfall Pattern Classification
Class Annually Rainfall (mm)

Rainfall Pattern Type Information
I < 1000

Pola Tunggal atau
Sederhana A
Curah hujan terendah bulan
Juli/ Agustus
II 1000-2000

Pola Fluktuasi/ Majemuk B
III 2000-3000

Pola Ganda C
IV 3000-4000

Pola Tunggal D
Curah hujan tertinggi bulan
Juli/ Agustus
V 4000-5000

VI >5000

Source : Balitklimat, 2007 and Trejor with modification (1976)

Table 5. Agro-climate Zone and Rainfall Pattern Classification
Annually Rainfall Pattern Climate Type
RF 100
(mm/month)
RF 100-150
(mm/month)
RF 150-200
(mm/month)
RF > 200
(mm/month)
< 1000
I A
Iklim Kering
7-10 4 3 2
I B 8-12 3 0 0
I C 8-9 2 2 2
1000-2000
II A 5-8 3 2 4
II B 4 5 5 4
II C 5 5 6 5
2000-3000
III A
Iklim Basah
6 4 5 6
III B 4 4 5 5-6
III C 4 4 5 6-8
3000-4000
IV A 2 3 4 7-9
IV B 2 3 3 8-11
IV C 3 4 4 7-9
IV D 1 3 5 7-9
Table 5
Annually Rainfall Pattern Climate Type
RF 100
(mm/month)
RF 100-150
(mm/month)
RF 150-200
(mm/month)
RF > 200
(mm/month)
4000-5000
V A

2 2 1 7-9
V B 0 0 2 9-12
V C 2 3 2 8-12
V D 0 0 1 10-12
> 5000
VI A 0 0 2 10-12
VI B 0 0 0 12
VI C 1 1 2 9
VI D 0 0 0 12
Source : Balitklimat, 2007


Determination of the direction of the cropping pattern was conducted by Balitklimat
(2007). This method is based on the distribution of rainfall determined by climate and
rainfall patterns. To determine the direction of the cropping pattern based on climate
conditions and rainfall patterns (Table 6).
Table 6 Direction for Cropping Pattern

Source : Balitklimat 2007


Pattern
Cropping Pattern
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ags Sep
I A KE
I B JG/KC
I C JG/KC
II A PG/KC
II B PG/KC
II C KE
III A PS JG/KE
III B PS JG/KE
III C PS JG/KC
IV A PG PG JG/KE
IV B PS PS PS
IV C PG PG JG/KE
IV D PS PS PS
V A SY PS SY
V B SY SY PS
V C SY SY PS
V D PS SY PS
VI A SY PS SY
VI B SY SY PS
VI C SY SY PS
VI D PS SY PS
PS :
Padi
Sawah
KC :
Kacang
Tanah
PG : Padi Gogo
KE : Kedelai
JG : Jagung
SY : Sayuran
III. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Climate Projection with HadCM3 A2 and B2 Climate Change Scenario
Based on observations on the current conditions were observed In 1971-2001, there
is the highest rainfall in the eastern part of the watershed Ngijo, observed in Playen Station.
Average annual rainfall in this area is 2358 mm/year. Relatively high rainfall are also found
in the western part that is equal to 2019 mm/year was observed from Tanjungtirto Station.
Rainfall in the north and south are relatively lower in the north where the rainfall amounted
to 1902 mm/year was observed from Kalasan Station, and in the southern part of the
rainfall of 1336 mm/year was observed from Station Terong (Figure 7. Distribution Zone
Agro-climate based on the Thiessen Polygon).






Figure 7 Agro-climate zone and location of station in
Ngijo watershed

Changes in rainfall based on IPCC SRES scenario A2 (Figure 8) as the impact of
climate change, in the period 2011-2040 that precipitation changes are relatively large in
these watersheds. The west and east with an initial rainfall of more than 2000 mm/year
reduced to 1621 mm/year in the east, while in the west declined drastically to 1336
mm/year. Rainfall occurs in the north and south also became lower, which was initially
greater than 1000 mm/year reduced to 978 mm/year in the north and 890 mm/year in the
south. Changes that occur in the period 2041-2070 was not as the previous period. Despite
a decline in almost all stations of rain, but the losses are not so great.
Climate change in IPCC SRES B2 scenario is shown with an annual rainfall average
in the year 2041 to 2070 the station changed either increased or decreased. Annual rainfall
average of the station in 2041-2070 is lower than the rainfall in the year 1970-2000.
However, when compared with an annual rainfall average of years 2011-2040, the annual
rainfall average of years 2041-2070 has fluctuated. Some stations has decreased and most
experienced increased rainfall. Annual rainfall average in the year 2041-2070 the station
changed either increased or decreased. Annual rainfall average of the station in 2041-2070
is lower than the rainfall in the year 1970-2000. However, when compared with an annual
rainfall average of years 2011-2040, the annual rainfall average of years 2041-2070 has
East Zone represented by Playen Station
West Zone representated by Tajungtirto

Notrh Zone representated by Kalasan

South Zone representated by Terong

fluctuated. Some stations has decreased and most experienced increased rainfall. Climate
projections for the years 2071-2100 reflected the fluctuations in rainfall from year 1970-
2000 until 2071-2100. The amount of annual rainfall average of projections based on IPCC
SRES B2 scenario climate can be seen in Figure 9.


Figure 8 Annually rainfall change in several station around Ngijo watershed with A2 climate scenario and
Figure 9 with B2 scenario (Source : Analysis Results, 2010)
Existing Condition of Cropping Pattern in Ngijo Watershed
Based on rainfall data of 1971-2001, Ngijo watershed is divided into four agro-
climate zones. The four agro-climate zones in the five stations scattered rain. Agro-climate
zones Ngijo DAS consists of rainfall patterns III C, III A, II A, and I A. Rainfall patterns III
A has the largest area in the watershed Ngijo (Figure 10).
IA found in the southern part of the Terong station. This zone is included in this
type of dry climate with dry months 7-10 months in a row all year. The rainfall pattern in
this zone is a simple wave) or only happen once the peak of the rainy season. Cropping
pattern suitable for this zone is a one time planting crops with soybean crop in December to
February.
Rainfall patterns IIA found in the northern part of the Station Kalasan. This zone is
included in this type of dry climate with annual rainfall of 1000-2000 mm/year. Terong
station has an annual rainfall average of 1336 mm/year, whereas rainfall stations Kalasan
has an annual average of 1902 mm/yr. The recommended cropping pattern is Upland Rice
or Peanut in January to March.
III A patterns occupy the majority of the watershed includes parts of central Ngijo
Ngijo watershed. This zone covers an area of hills and plains. Station located in the zone is
Tanjungtirto Station which has an annual rainfall average of 2019 mm/yr. A climatic zone
III included in the wet climate with annual rainfall of 2000-3000 mm/yr. The pattern in this
zone is only happen once the peak of the rainy season. Planting rice and pulses in this
month is not recommended in dry months. Cropping pattern to suit this climate zone is a
one time and one-time rice crops a year. Cropping pattern is recommended that Rice in
October to January and corn or soybeans in February through April.

III C pattern occupies most of the watershed that includes parts of southeastern
Ngijo and eastern watershed Ngijo. This zone is a structural hill. Station located in the zone
is Playen Station. Climatic zones III C is included in the wet climate with annual rainfall of
2000-3000 mm/yr. The pattern of rainfall in this zone is a single pattern of double
patterning (double wave) or occurred only twice the peak rainfall. Rice suggested is
October to February and Corn or peanut in March to June.


Figure 10. Existing cropping pattern in Ngijo watershed
Change of Agro-climate Zone in Ngijo Watershed Based on A2 and B2 Climate
Scenario
Based on the projected results of climate change scenarios A2 and B2 can be
determined the changes that occur in each period of the 2010-2100 period. In this study the
direction of the cropping pattern based on climate change scenarios A2 and B2 are divided
into three periods based on the statistical requirements to view weather conditions. In the
period 2010-2100 is divided into 3 (three) periods, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100.
Agro-climate zone changes can be seen in Table 7.
Under the A2 scenario the northern part of the cropping pattern changes are likely
not too fluctuated, but decreased from the present conditions. For the conditions now
existing cropping pattern is II A, namely the growing season in January to March to plant
upland rice and peanut. Changes that occur for the A2 scenario is a change in cropping
pattern from January to March to the cropping pattern in December to February. So there is
a setback early planting in the period 2011-2040 and 2071-2100. Commodities that can be
planted in this period is Soybean (Table 8).
Table 7. Cropping Pattern Direction Chane 2010-2100
Climate Zone
Cropping Pattern
Eksisting (1970-
2000)
2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2100
A2 B2 A2 B2 A2 B2
North IIA IA IA IA IA IA IA
Center IIIA IIA IIA IIA IIA IIA IIA
South IA IC IC IC IC IIC IIA
East IIIC IA IIA IIA IIA IIA IIA
Source: Analysis, 2010
Table 9. Cropping Pattern Change Based on A2 Climate Scenario

Source: Analysis, 2010
Cropping pattern shown in the B2 scenario is a condition that remains in the
northern region, namely agro-climate zones IA with Soybean cropping pattern in March to
May. The same thing occurs in the middle area that has not changed in three agro-climate
zones period having IIA with Upland Rice cropping pattern or ground beans in April to
June. Changes occur in the southern region, the change of agro-climate zones of the IC with
the planting corn or beans in the period 2011-2040 and 2041-2070 to agro-climate zones
IIA with the cropping pattern of Upland Rice and Peanut on April-June. Changes in
cropping patterns Ngijo watershed will be presented in Table 10.
Spatial changes of agro-climate zones in the watershed Ngijo based on IPCC SRES
scenarios A2 and B2 for 3 (three) time periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100)
can be seen in Figure 11.




Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2011-2040 IA
2041-2070 IA
2071-2100 IA
2011-2040 IIA
2041-2070 IIA
2071-2100 IIA
2011-2040 IC
2041-2070 IC
2071-2100 IIC
2011-2040 IA
2041-2070 IIA
2071-2100 IIA
PG/KC
PG/KC
PG/KC
PG/KC
PG/KC
JG/KC
JG/KC
KE
Pola Tanam
Wilayah 4 (Timur)
Wilayah 3 (Selatan)
Wilayah 2 (Tengah)
Wilayah 1 (Utara)
KE
KE
KE
KE
Periode Waktu
Zona
Agroklimat
Periode
Table 10. Cropping Pattern Change Based on A2 Climate Scenario

Source: Analysis, 2010
Changes in agro-climate zone in Ngijo Watershed in the future will effect on
changes of cropping pattern. Agro-climate zone in Ngijo Watershed changes from Zone I
and III become Zone I and II. It caused by rainfall decreasing. Plants that can grow in this
zone is corn, peanuts, soybean, and upland rice. Corn, peanuts and soybean are vegetations
that has low effectiveness of erosion prevention and runoff (Arsyad, 1989). Therefore it
was required an effort to control erosion and runoff on agricultural land in Ngijo
Watershed.
Most of Ngijo Watershed area are classified in Zone II A in period 2011-2100.
According to Balitklimat, recommendation of cropping pattern for Zone IIA is plant upland
rice or peanuts in April-June. Ngijo Watershed consists of plains and hills. Relief of the
region affected on selection of vegetation that will plant. Upland rice is planted on lowland
or slope with terraces. Upland rice has more effectiveness of erosion control than peanuts.
Peanuts is planted on hills or lowland. Peanuts has less effectiveness of erosion control than
upland rice. Erosion controlling in land that planted peanuts can be done by covered land
with organic mulch. In addition, besides to reduce erosion and runoff, organic mulch can
use as green fertilizer for peanuts. Addition of compost can increase crop production and
control erosion and runoff effectively (Arsyad, 1989)

IV. CONCLUSION
As the impact of possible climate changes that occur in the future DAS Ngijo
predicted to experience a large decline in rainfall compared to current conditions. Rainfall
in the watershed Ngijo which currently has a range of about 1300-2300 mm / year, will be
reduced until it reaches the range of about 900-1500 in the final period in 2100.
The possibility of a decrease in rainfall that occur in the future lead to changes in
the watershed Ngijo agro-climate zones in the watershed. At this time, the zone is
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2011-2040 IA
2041-2070 IA
2071-2100 IA
2011-2040 IIA
2041-2070 IIA
2071-2100 IIA
2011-2040 IC
2041-2070 IC
2071-2100 IIA
2011-2040 IIA
2041-2070 IIA
2071-2100 IIA
PG/KC
PG/KC
PG/KC
PG/KC
PG/KC
PG/KC
PG/KC
JG/KC
JG/KC
Pola Tanam
Wilayah 4 (Timur)
Wilayah 3 (Selatan)
Wilayah 2 (Tengah)
Wilayah 1 (Utara)
KE
KE
KE
Periode Waktu
Zona
Agroklimat
Periode
dominated by agro-climate zones II and III, and the period until the end of the year 2100,
agro-climate zones experienced a decrease of conditions that are dominated by zones I and
II. Changes in agro-climate zones are predicted to occur in the watershed Ngijo resulted in
a decrease in the threat of agricultural production and crop failure, so that the necessary
mitigation measures by utilizing local wisdom surrounding communities. One form of
wisdom is to do the rotation of crops planted each season. By doing a rotation in cropping
patterns, water resources are the main needs in agricultural activity expected to be utilized
optimally.

V. ACKNOWLEDGMENT
Great appreciation to all my seniors who sincerely share their knowledge and skills
especially in the field of study of climate and water resources. Special thank you very much
for Emilya Nurjani, S.Si, M.Si our S1 supervisor, Dr. Aris MarfaI, M.Sc, and the civitas
akademika Faculy of Geography.
Thanks to the Biro Perencanaan dan Kerjasama Luar Negeri

(BPKLN)

Kementrian Pedidikan Nasional Republik Indonesia which has provided master's
program scholarships to the writers, and thank you to fully support our participation in the
International Seminar on Environmental Science (ISES2011) at the University of
Andalas through the program of BEASISWA UNGGULAN. Hopefully this program can
be maintained to enhance Indonesia's human resources in the future.

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Figure 11. Change of Agro-climatic zone 2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2099 A2 and B2 scenario