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Postlethwait, Lori

From: Stier,Jeffrey K - KE-4 []

Sent: Friday, July 31, 2009 12:02 PM
To: Rock Peters; Puckett, Kathryn J
Subject: Science Ctr modeling thoughts

For a better sense of the kind of modeling envisioned by the Science Center, see my question at the bottom and
replies from Ferguson and Zabel.

I have set up a call with Science Ctr and NOAA folks next Tuesday to discuss a bit further. 1-2 pm. Call in is
a meet-me bridge - 503-230-5600.

-----Original Message-----
From: Rich Zabel []
Sent: Friday, July 31, 2009 8:30 AM
To: John W. Ferguson
Cc: Stier,Jeffrey K - KE-4
Subject: Re: Science workshop R,M&E recommendations

And hopefully we will have a tighter link between modeling and future
monitoring to fill data gaps.

John W. Ferguson wrote:

> Yes, you have the concept. This is what we intended to capture with
> the proposal. It also includes the COMPASS model to cover the d/s
> migration component of the life cycle. We'll have to discuss the
> mechanics of such a model(s) with our modelers (I am clearly not a
> modeler) but the gist is to build a series of linked modules that are
> life-stage specific, or take outputs from specific modules (COMPASS
> for example) and input them into age-structured matrix models.
> Hopefully, we'll be able to link modules together that address
> freshwater rearing and survival, d/s migration, survival below BON and
> in the nearshore habitat, marine survival, and migrations back through
> the FCRPS and pre-spawning mortality. Your data comment is spot on.
> We proposed a budget to cover 4 people to gather information, help
> build the models, run scenarios, and report the findings. There will
> have to be a lot of data mining. Once built, the models can be
> updated as information on relationships improves, pop trend data is
> gathered, climate scenarios are modeled, etc.
> Stier,Jeffrey K - KE-4 wrote:
>> When you say "modeling framework" I am visualizing a set of linked
>> models, which would presumably include climate model(s), downscaled
>> to an appropriate level, an age-structured and stochastic lifecycle matrix
>> model along the lines of the one used in the ICTRT gap analysis,
>> other models including habitat models such as Shiraz and models
>> incorporating hatchery effects, all working together, as it were.
>> Of course this will require a lot of new DATA so the models can be
>> populated with something better than highly educated guesswork.

>> Is my mental picture in the right ballpark?


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