You are on page 1of 2

Puckett, Kathryn J

From: Newsom, Michael A


Sent: Wednesday, August 12, 2009 3:14 PM
To: Puckett, Kathryn J; Spinazola, Joseph M
Cc: Grabowski, Stephen J; Postlethwait, Lori
Subject: RE: triggers

Emergency measures presumably would be taken when a certain probability of extinction occurs. A 4‐yr moving average 
of adult returns to dam facilities is one way to trigger emergency measures. Another more robust way would be to 
generate Monte Carlo probability distributions based on life‐cycle modeling contingencies (conditional probabilities 
based on ocean conditions vs. dam passage conditions versus tributary conditions, etc., with and without FCRPS 
improvements). These simulations would extend the trend analysis and the life‐cycle contingencies would take into 
consideration the out of basin effects. 
 
From: Puckett, Kathryn J
Sent: Wednesday, August 12, 2009 2:05 PM
To: Newsom, Michael A; Spinazola, Joseph M
Cc: Grabowski, Stephen J; Postlethwait, Lori
Subject: RE: triggers
 
I don't understand your words Michael.

From: Newsom, Michael A


Sent: Wednesday, August 12, 2009 11:00 AM
To: Spinazola, Joseph M; Puckett, Kathryn J
Cc: Grabowski, Stephen J; Postlethwait, Lori
Subject: RE: triggers

I think that the proposed full life‐cycle monitoring should address some of the out‐of‐basin issues regarding triggers. 
Meanwhile perhaps we could include in the trigger language some extinction probability analysis which would take into 
consideration longer term trends in adult abundance moderated by expected improvements under the BiOp. 
  
From: Spinazola, Joseph M
Sent: Wednesday, August 12, 2009 9:48 AM
To: Puckett, Kathryn J
Cc: Newsom, Michael A; Grabowski, Stephen J; Postlethwait, Lori
Subject: RE: triggers 
  
Kate‐ 
  
The "Chinook chart" in the attached spreadsheet indicates the years in which the exceedance values occurred. For 
example, low adult returns for SR s/s chinook salmon occurred in 96‐00 shortly after listing. (These values are in the 10% 
"Unexpected/Severe" range.) Higher adult returns occurred after  the BiOps were issued and measures were 
implemented. This pattern occurs with the other chinook ESUs on the chart also. 
  
I'm working on the steelhead chart and will send that as soon as I'm done. 
  
From: Grabowski, Stephen J
Sent: Wednesday, August 12, 2009 10:18 AM
To: Puckett, Kathryn J; Postlethwait, Lori; Spinazola, Joseph M
Cc: Newsom, Michael A
Subject: RE: triggers 
1

BR098
  
Kate, 
Please see attached file. 
sg 
  
Stephen Grabowski 
Bureau of Reclamation, PN-6540 
1150 N. Curtis Rd., Ste. 100 
Boise, ID 83706-1234 
Phone: 208-378-5030 
Fax: 208-378-5305 
E-mail: sgrabowski@usbr.gov 
  
From: Puckett, Kathryn J
Sent: Tuesday, August 11, 2009 8:53 AM
To: Grabowski, Stephen J
Subject: triggers 
  
Steve, I'm hoping you'll look at the appendices on the triggers especially and advise me on what the true ramifications of 
these are.  thx, Kate 
  
Kathryn Puckett 
Program Manager 
Columbia Snake Salmon Recovery Office 
Bureau of Reclamation, PN Region 
1150 N. Curtis Road, Ste 100 
Boise, ID 83706 
208 378 5089 
208 514 8527 
  
  

BR099

Related Interests