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analysis

MATSUOKA Takeshi1, 2

1. College of Nuclear Science and Technology, Harbin Engineering University No.145-1, Nantong Street, Nangang District, Harbin,

Heilongjiang Province, 150001 China

2. Center for Fundamental Education, Utsunomiya University, 350 Mine-machi, Utsunomiya City, 321-8505 Japan

(mats@cc.utsunomiya-u.ac.jp)

Abstract: Bases of Monte Carlo simulation are briefly described. Details of the application of Excel software

to Monte Carlo simulation are shown with an analysis example. Three-component system is taken up and

analysis is performed with the consideration of repair actions. Finally, it is shown that loop structure can be

solved by Monte Carlo simulation method, which is realized by Excel software. The simulation results are

compared with the analytical calculation results and good agreement is confirmed.

Keyword: Monte Carlo simulation; reliability analysis; repair of component; loop structure

1 Introduction1

In this lecture note, explanations are given for a

Monte Carlo simulation method for system reliability

analysis.

Many system reliability analysis methods are

proposed and used for probabilistic safety

assessments (PSAs), mainly to assess the safety of

nuclear power plants [1]. Although event tree and

fault tree analyses are widely used in nuclear field,

the system structures of nuclear plants are mostly

very complex. System operational modes such as

"phased mission" are sometimes complicated, and

there are various dependencies between operation of

subsystems or component failures. Components have

many kinds of failure modes and failure distributions,

and failed components are repaired and maintained in

the actual operational conditions.

Taking into account these conditions, system

reliability analysis through analytical models will

become very difficult and restrictive. Simulation

methods can straightforwardly treat these many

complicated conditions in one analysis framework.

We first explain the bases of Monte Carlo simulation.

Detailed explanations are given for the application of

Excel software to Monte Carlo simulation. Three

Received date: March 7, 2013

44

**components system is taken up and analysis is
**

performed with the consideration of repair actions.

Finally, the Monte Carlo simulation method is

applied to a system in which there is mutually

supportive relation (loop structure). Reliability of a

system with loop structure was not generally obtained

in terms of the arithmetic operators of Boolean algebra,

but it is shown that loop structure can be

straightforwardly solved by this simulation method.

If the readers find out an advantage of this simulation

method, kindly utilize Monte Carlo simulation to

your analysis.

**2 Monte Carlo simulation
**

The idea of Monte Carlo methods[2] is the generation

of random events in a computer model, and this

generation is repeated many times and count the

occurrence number of a specific condition. Monte

Carlo methods are often used in simulations of

physical and mathematical systems.

During the wartime period, the first electronic

computer ENIAC was developed at the University of

Pennsylvania. It was used for the calculation of

thermonuclear problem in Manhattan Project. After

the war, Stan Ulam, who was well versed with

statistical sampling techniques, had an idea to use

ENIAC's miraculous ability for this technique. He

discussed with John von Neumann. In 1947,

Neumann showed a detailed outline of a possible

Nuclear Safety and Simulation, Vol. 4, Number 1, March 2013

Start with a sound state of a component and observe it for certain time duration t. (3) Perform deterministic judgments of system states based on the events. For a specific observation. (2) Generate events randomly. failure happens at a certain time. As an example.O t}. and the success probability reflects an assigned failure model. (2) Suppose that a demand for the start of operation is given at time t1. This was the start of the Monte Carlo method[3]. for example tf. Failure of a component is a stochastic phenomenon. The reliability R(t) in standby state is governed by the following equation: dR(t ) S R (t ). Additionally. The simulation is treated as a series of real experiments. 4. a famous casino where many people. (4) Count the occurrence number of a specific system state among total observations. We can avoid the restrictive modeling assumptions that had to be introduced to fit the models to available solutions. stand-by condition. operating: O) and demand probability QD. including Ulam's uncle. dt (1) With the initial condition R(t=0)=1. Vol. After a small time duration t from t2. (5) The above relations are schematically illustrated as shown in Fig. would often gamble away their money. repair and maintenance for components. then the reliability is: R (t1 ) QD exp{S t1}. redundancies. The component will be in sound or failed state at time t with the aid of random events in a computer model. consider component failure phenomenon. the Nuclear Safety and Simulation. 1 t2 time Reliability of a component with time. (3) After the start of operation. (4) Let us denote the reliability of a component at a certain time t2 as R(t2). Before time tf. Neumann conceived the algorithm for generating uniformly distributed pseudo-random numbers.A Monte Carlo simulation method for system reliability analysis statistical approach to solving the problem of neutron diffusion in fissionable material. t t1 Fig. and statistical inference will be used to estimate the confidence intervals for the performance. Repeat this observation many times and collect the events the component is in sound state. the reliability becomes: R (t2 t ) R(t2 ) exp{S . March 2013 45 . aging effects. A weakness of the Monte Carlo method is the computing time expended particularly when we deal with a large complex system. the reliability is expressed by the following equation: R (t ) QD exp{S t1} exp{O (t t1 )}. 1. which is used in the generation of random events. The Monte Carlo simulation allows us to consider various aspects of system characteristics which cannot be easily captured by analytical methods such as K-out-of-N success criteria. Number 1. reliability becomes: R (t ) exp{S t}. 3 Monte Carlo simulation by Excel Let us first consider the failure process of one component with constant failure rates (standby: S. standby 1. the component is completely in sound condition and after time tf the component loses its function. Numerical value of success probability is easily obtained. The method was named after the Monte Carlo Casino. that is. phased mission.0. Fraction of the number of sound states over total observation number gives the success probability of a component at time t. and this probability is the reliability R(t) of this component. The Monte Carlo simulation is used to complement these theoretical derivations.0 operating Failure occurs Keep sound state The basic procedure of Monte Carlo method is: (1) Define a domain of possible events.

It means that the component unfortunately fails during 14 to 16 minutes.01×2min). that is. component is thereafter maintained at failed state. repair is not considered. Nuclear Safety and Simulation. This judgment is expressed by "0" in the cell D11. 20 minute and 30 minute. Time span of 30 minutes are divided into 15 sections by each 2-minute time duration. and failed state by "0".O t} . a random value of 0. It means that the component successfully starts the operation.2 46 Simulation by Excel table for one component. by counting the number of "1" in the cells F7.. and also the number of the cases in which component is in sound state at specific time t. 2. collect the numbers of success cases for the time 10 minute. F8.9 are assumed. If we make numerous amount of observations for the same component under the same condition (as idealistic experiments).417410082 is given.03×2min). QD=0. Component in standby state is denoted as S(0-2). 4. In cell C11. This judgment is expressed by "1" in the cell D3 in Excel table. If failure rates are not constant values but a function of time. which is calculated by exp(-O t) = exp(-0. In column D. If random number is greater than exp{S .O t} as seen from Eq.9 (= demand probability QD). In this model. just after the demand. in column C. This means that judgments in D12 to D18 are not used in this case. This value is smaller than the value of 0. Transition from sound state to failed state during time interval t can be found by using random number between 0 to 1.MATSUOKA Takeshi component is in failed state with the probability of 1. S=0. and one at operating state as O(10-12) in column B. Vol. March 2013 . then Eq. In line 3. Fig. Now. This is the probability that the component is still in sound state after t time passed. Sound state is denoted by "1".941765.99626777 is given. and they are written in column A. In this case. a random number of 0. and it is larger than the value of 0. Therefore. In column E. Figure 2 shows the results of one experiment. the following approximation is useful: t2 t t2 t dt (t2 ) t (7) The above transition process can be simulated by the Excel software as shown in Fig. it is judged that the component failed during this time interval t in a specific observation. In this case. a random value of 0.9801987. Random numbers are given at each time section.1 ］ by Excel function RAND( ).O=0. Figure 3 shows the results.01/min. Demand for the start of operation (QD) is given at 10 minutes. This is denoted by "1" in the cell D8. F13 and F18 in a series of numerous experiments (trials). one case that happened by chance. state of the component is expressed at each time. Number 1. The ratio R(t2 t ) R(t2 ) equals exp{S . which is calculated by exp(-S t) = exp(-0.(5).388347194 is given. Uniformly distributed random number is generated in interval ［ 0.03/min. (6) If analytical integration is difficult. we judge the component maintains a sound state during 0 to 2 minutes. In cell C8. which is smaller than the value of 0. the distribution of tf is obtained. The proportion of this number against total observation number becomes the reliability R(t). transition from sound state to failed state is judged.0. (5) becomes: R (t2 t ) R(t2 ) exp{ t2 t t2 t dt}. once failure occurs.

01/min. Number 1. after Demand ) QD 0. component is not operated ("0" in cells H2 to H7). The simulation results shown in Fig. 3 give good agreement at 5000 trials with the above analytical calculation.. If random number(2) is greater than exp{ t} . Vol. (8) R(10.03 10} 0. consequently rendering component Nuclear Safety and Simulation. If the component is in sound state in previous time interval and failure occurs ("0" in column D).03/min. then component state is changed to failed state ("0" in cell G3). (13) Operating probability of one component can be obtained by an Excel simulation as shown in Fig. 4. PO(t) becomes as follows: PO (t ) ( ) P(0) exp(( )t ). During 2 to 4 minutes repair action has been succeeded ("1" in cell F4).03 20} 0. Component is successfully started ("1" in cell D8). If failed component is continuously repaired with constant repair rate . During the standby state. In other conditions..814. Fig. analytical calculation can be easily performed and results are as follows: R(t 10) exp{0.9. For the reliability of one component with constant failure rates. 4.0110} 0. and =0. The state of component (column G) is judged as follows.447. 4 Three-component repair action system with Now. "Random number(1)" in column C is used for the judgment of failure and "Random number(2)" in column E is used for repair. Failure again occurs ("0" in cell D10).03/min. failure occurs during time interval 0 to 2 minutes ("0" in cell D3).905. (11) R (30) R (10) exp{0.603. the probability PO(t) is governed by the following equation: dPO (t ) PO (t ) 1 PO (t ) dt (12) With the initial condition PO(t=0)=P(0).3 Simulation results for one component.4 Simulation for one component with repair action. component state is unchanged. and the operation started ("1" in cell H8). QDA=0. If the component is in failed state in previous time interval and repaired ("1" in column F).A Monte Carlo simulation method for system reliability analysis In this case. take an example of a three-component system and monitor the operating state of the system with the consideration of repair action. March 2013 47 . then component state is changed to sound state ("1" in cell G4). In Fig. component state is changed to sound state ("1" in column G). (9) (10) R (20) R (10) exp{0.905 0.O=0. Fig. The success of repair action is expressed by "1" in the column F. the following assumptions are made: S=0. component state is changed to failed state ("0" in column G). it is judged that the component is repaired during this time interval t in a specific observation. 4. Let us denote the probability of operating state of a component at time t as PO(t).

consider the three-component system as shown in Fig. component is already in failed state and this judgment is not used. Analytical values can be obtained by Eq. PO (40) 0. and is placed in operating condition.0.9 exp{0. Commencement of operation for component A. first prepare the Excel table for each component as shown in Fig.03/min. Now.01/min..678. B and C are in operating state at time 40 minutes.). 4.05/min. B and C are given at 10. QDA A Success judgment appears in cell D11.6 OR/AND SYSTEM OPERATION Three-component system. (15) 0. 20 and 30 minutes.598.825. QD. For example.06 0.MATSUOKA Takeshi to be in failed state ("0" in cell G10) and operation stops ("0" in cell H10). Any kind of system operational logic can be written by logical formula.5 Simulation results for one component with repair action. 0. Vol. (16) (17) The simulation results at 5000 trials again give good agreement with the analytical values. ) for components A.0.006/min. Failure data (S. 0.0. "OR" logic between three components is written as "IF(I23+I74+I100>=1.03/min. system operation or configuration can be easily modeled in this simulation method.03 0..01 10} 0. However in this case. (13). 0. Fortunately repair is made ("1" in cell F14) and component is in sound state. Therefore. Finally count appeared number of "1" in cell J23. respectively.. Compared to the results shown in Fig. respectively.1.99. 6. (0. Figure 5 shows the simulation results.O. respectively. Number 1. March 2013 .01/min. Here.) and (0. Then.9. express system operational logic in Excel table. cells I23. PO (20) (14) (O ) PO (10) exp{( O ) 10} O O 0. For the simulation analysis. Figure 7 shows the simulation result for "OR" logic. The ratio of this number to the total observation number becomes the probability of the system operation by "OR" logic at the 40 minutes.).9. the repair effects are apparent.01/min.. 0.03/min.7 48 Simulation results for three component system. 0.6} 0. I74 and I100 have values "1" when components A. after Demand ) QDA exp{S 10} 0.. Fig..3.825 exp{0. 4.5 0.554.0)" in a cell (J23).06 PO (30) 0. Fig. B and C are assumed as (0. 0.01/min. Nuclear Safety and Simulation. QDB B QDC C Fig. as follows: PO (t 10.

71371 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Excel table for SS-type component S1. we think of a system as shown in Fig. (0.18981 0.).553231 0.).001/min.8 Loop structure for simulation analysis..392672 0.. tB(=12 min.9). The authors have shown that loop structure could be solved by analytical procedure and also by a simulation method[8]. 0..95) and (0. (0.01/min. components S1 and S2 are stopped at times of 24 min.01/min..) are not variables but express fixed time points. Time sequence of the starts of operation is set as ts1 (= 4 min.01/min.0. B and C are G-type components.740703 0. and components A. repair action is not considered.826852 0.03/min.751363 0.003/min.658205 0. (18) both A(t=16 min.428757 0. Number 1. the Boolean relation has to be described with unknown variable(s). Failure data (S.516484 0.703634 0. The operating probability of component C has been obtained by the following analytical equation [9]: X(t)= S1(C) S2(τA)･A(t)B(t)C(t)+ S2(t)B(t)C(t) (18) In Eq.A Monte Carlo simulation method for system reliability analysis 5 Analysis of loop structure by Monte Carlo simulation For a system.). Nuclear Safety and Simulation.979722 Success State of or Failure Component 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 Operable state 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 Excel table for G-type component A.203622 0.9).35546 0. and 28 min. 0. which has logical loop structure(s).003/min. respectively.543767 0. For the simplicity. we encounter infinite circulation of the unknown variable(s). As a fundamental configuration of a loop structure. the loop structure continues its operation and the probability is: (19) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 0.O.770618 0.202294 0. State of Operation Random Success mode number or Failure Component Time 0 2 4 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 S(0) S(0-2) S(2-4) Qd-S1 O(4-6) O(6-8) O(8-10) O(10-12) O(12-14) O(14-16) O(16-18) O(18-20) O(20-22) O(22-24) Qd-S1X - Fig.892056 0.845381 0.95) . Components' states of S1 and A are obtained by Excel tables as shown in Figs. 4.038305 0.988171 0.) and tC(=20 min. detailed explanations regarding the procedure to solve a loop structure by Monte Carlo simulation method are given.03/min.. If we try to solve the Boolean equation(s) with unknown variable(s).007939 0. This is an additional condition in the analysis of loop structure. B and C as (0. 0.771356 0..650115 0. 0. In this lecture note. Without the supports of SS-type components. A. X(t)= S1(τC) S2(τA)･A(t)B(t)C(t). 0.96376 0.001/min.579538 0. Components S1 and S2 are self sustained type (SS-type) components.9 and 10.503788 0...000603 0. which require support for their operation.. not required in previous cases.9 Time Fig.003/min.401957 0.479275 0. Operation Random mode number S(0) S(0-2) S(2-4) S(4-6) S(6-8) S(8-10) S(10-12) S(12-14) S(14-16) Qd-A O(16-18) O(18-20) O(20-22) O(22-24) O(24-26) O(26-28) O(28-30) O(30-32) O(32-34) O(34-36) O(36-38) O(38-40) Fig. Logical loop was not generally solved in terms of the arithmetic operators of Boolean algebra[4-7]. (0. 0. March 2013 49 .).95). ts2(=8 min. 8. tA(=16 min.0..378489 0. respectively.0.166524 0.209107 0. Vol. S2.301401 0.690876 0.0. After the establishment of loop operation.10 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - Operating state 0.) and C(t=20 min.641034 0. QD) are assumed for components S1.

and component A has no ability to be operated after 32 min.0) 0 1 C At a time of 12 min. After the successful start of operation. and components A and C are in standby condition. At the right side of the component name. In this case. it becomes operating state "1".. because it is a SS-type component. Therefore. March 2013 . failure occurs during a time interval from 30 to 32 min. T=12(B starts) 1 S1 C T=12-16 S1 1 C Figure 10 shows a table for G-type component A. Therefore.1.1.11 1 A 0 B 1 A 0 B 1 A 1 B 1 A 1 B 1 A 1 B 1 A 1 B 1 A 1 B 1 A 1 B 1 A 1 B 1 A 1 B 1 S2 1 S2 1 S2 1 S2 1 S2 1 S2 1 S2 1 S2 1 S2 1 S2 1 Excel table for a loop structured system. in this case. Cell G124 is next to component name A and gives A's operating state. 10. Demand for start of operation is given to component B. Cell N82 gives operability of component B at time of 16 min.MATSUOKA Takeshi Figure 9 is a table for component S1. operating state is "0" (not operating).. components S1 and S2 are already in operating state. and operating states are evaluated for time of 16 min. Component B's state is judged by the following formula: IF(N82*G126*(G129+I130)>=1. Number 1. Next box is prepared for time interval of 12 to 16 min. Cell G126 gives the operating state of B at the end of previous time interval (=12 min. Soundness of a component and existence of support are not sufficient for the judgment of operating state of a component at specific time. The reason of this condition is as follows. then operating states are "0" after the time of 24 min. Component states are judged for each time or time interval. and operation is judged by the following logical formula: 0 T=16(A starts) 1 S1 C System with a loop structure (shown in Fig. 8) is simulated by an Excel table as shown in Fig. last column is "operable state" and "1" in this column means that a component is in sound state and has a possibility to be operated with the proper support. Indeed. Vol. This type of component requires the support for its operation. it will not go back to operating state without additional demand of start. 11. component B can be supported only by component S2 at the time 12 min. S1 is stopped at time of 24 min. in this case). 4. Nuclear Safety and Simulation. operating state is shown as "1" (operating) or "0" (not operating)..0) 50 (21) 0 1 0 T=20(C starts) 1 S1 C T=20-22 S1 T=22-24 S1 1 1 1 1 C 1 T=24(S1 stops) 0 S1 C IF(N80*(G124+I125)>=1. During the standby period. C T=16-18 S1 C T=18-20 S1 (20) Successful start ("1") or not ("0") is taken from the cell N80 in the component B's table like Fig. If component stops operation due to failure or lack of support. continuous operation in the past is essential for the operation at a specific time. 0 T=24-26 S1 1 0 C Fig. Cell I125 is next to component name S2 and has a value of "1" (S2 is operating).

12. This is the same situation of G126 in Eq. The results are shown in Fig. Number 1. We therefore can avoid the restrictive modeling assumptions that had to be introduced in analytical methods. (Component S2 stops) and t=40 min. B and C. The system has loop structure and components C and A are connected. support by C becomes effective after the time of 20 min.. (after the start of C). Cell G134 gives the operating state of A at the previous time (=16 min.1.1498.. (18) has been considered. t=24 min. explanations have been given for a Monte Carlo simulation method for system reliability analysis. X (28.0) (23) Fig. (18). This is also seen in Eq. (18) or Eq. 6 Conclusion In this lecture note. and operating state becomes "0" in the cell D164 (right side of component name "S1"). and just after the stop of S1 have exactly the same values. (21). the support by C also has to be considered. March 2013 51 . This means that S1 has no contribution to the probability at time of 24 min. At time of 24 min. Modeling method to treat repair actions has been explained in detail and three-component system has been analyzed. operating states of the components are identified step by step with time. S1 is stopped.1. In the present operational sequence. Monte Carlo method can straightforwardly treat any kind of system structure and operating conditions. Vol. component A is started. X (24) 0. The values of X(t) can be calculated from Eq. In a similar way. C -starts ) 0. and gives the information of successful start ("1") or not ("0"). Component A's operation after the start is judged by the following logical formula: IF(N57*(D134+E131)>=1. t=28 min. S 2-stops) 0. component A's operation is judged by the following logical formula: IF(N58*G134*(D139+E136)>=1.2018. The simulation results have been compared with the analytical calculation results and good agreement has been confirmed in all cases.12 Results of simulation analysis for a loop structured system. Thus.4349. Detailed explanations have been given for the application of Excel software to Monte Carlo simulation. Operating probabilities at time of 24 min. 4. X(24). Nuclear Safety and Simulation.0) (22) Cell N57 is in the component A's table. Observation is made for the time t=18 min. in this case). The basic idea of Monte Carlo simulation has been described.5004. (Component C starts). Finally.A Monte Carlo simulation method for system reliability analysis At time of 16 min. X (40) 0. The operating probability of component C is obtained by counting the number of "1" in the cells next to the component name "C" through the numerous number of observations. the dependency between the first and second terms in Eq.. But the states of other components are operating ("1") with the support of S2 or mutual supports between components A. (24) (25) (26) (27) For the calculation of X(20).(19) as follows: X (20. In the time interval of 16 to 18 min. Possible supports are from S1 (cell D134) and from C (cell E131). it has been shown that loop structure can be solved by this simulation method. (Component S1 stops). The simulation results at 5000 trials give good agreement with the analytical values.

Helsinki. Reliability Engineering and System Safety. JH. Finland. MATSUOKA. Nov. HAN. Japan.: The beginning of the Monte Carlo Method. Los Alamos Science. JE. 1. Osaka.. T. 3. special issue. 2000: 1461-1465. In: Proceedings of PSAM-V. Vol.: Method for solving logical loops in system reliability analysis. 2012. 2007: 1473-1475. T. 4. 56. T.: Generalized Method for Solving Logical Loops in Reliability Analysis.: the Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis. Nuclear Safety and Simulation. March 2013 .: Overview of system reliability analyses for PSA. 2010: 328-339. 2012: 25-29. 2012: 59-72. YH. MATSUOKA. T.: An exact method for solving logical loops in reliability analysis. MATSUOKA. 94. PARK. JK.: Analytic method to break logical loops automatically in PSA. MATSUOKA. Number 1. SH. N.MATSUOKA Takeshi It is the author’s hope that readers find out an advantage of the simulation method presented here. Springer series in Reliability Engineering.. Reliability Engineering and System Safety.Dec.: A method to solve logical loops in the GO-FLOW Methodology. International Journal of Nuclear Safety and Simulation. 1997: 101-105. VAURIO. 1. In: Proceeding of PSAM-11. [7] [8] [9] YANG. Reliability Engineering and System Safety. International Journal of Nuclear Safety and Simulation. [5] [6] References [1] [2] [3] [4] 52 MATSUOKA. and utilize Monte Carlo simulation for futures research activities. 1987: 125–130.. 92.: A recursive method for breaking complex logic loops in Boolean system models. E. T. JIN. Jun. ZIO.. 2009: 1282-1288. METROPOLIS. 27.

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