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You are on page 1of 6

sity

College of

o Engine

eering

GENG

G 200 Pro

obability and Statistics forr Enginee

ers

Sprring 2012

2: Midterm

m Exam 1

Faculty: D

Dr. Adel E

Elomri

Date: 0

04April2012

CandidatesmustNOTu

useredinkorPencil

WriteCleaarlyandConciisely

ThisExamcontains4Paarts:(PartA:20points,PaartB:30poin

nts,PartC:20

0points,Part

D:30points)

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ngthissheet.

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SuggestedTime:70min

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exam.

___________

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Naame:_____

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st of Luck

Dr. Ad

del Elomrri

GENG200ProbabilityandStatisticsforEngineers,MidtermExam1Spring2012

Part A 20 points

A family that owns two cars is selected, and for both the older and the newer car we note

whether the car was manufactured in America (U), Europe (E), or Asia (A).

(1)- What are the possible outcomes of this experiment (write the sample space S) ?

(New car, Old Car)

S={(UU), (EE), (AA), (UE), (EU),(AE),(EA),(UA), (AU)}

(2)- Which outcomes are contained in the event that one car is American and the other is

foreign ?

{ (UE), (EU), (UA), (AU)}

(3)- Which outcomes are contained in the event that the two cares are made in Europe ?

Identify the outcomes of the compliment of this event.

{(EE)},

The compliment is at least one car is not made in Europe

{(UU), (AA), (UE), (EU),(AE),(EA),(UA), (AU)}

(4)- Identify two events that are mutually exclusive.

There are many mutually exclusive events, for example

Event 1: the two cars are made in Europe {(EE)}, AND Event 2: the two cars are made in

America {(UU)},

Any two events with empty set intersection are mutually exclusive

Page|2/4

GENG200ProbabilityandStatisticsforEngineers,MidtermExam1Spring2012

Part B 30 points

Referring to the previous exercise, a car made in Asia or Europe will be considered as

foreign (F) car. let:

0.7 ,

American},

0.5, and

0.4,

- The new sample space, S

let (New car, Old Car), S={(UU), (UF), (FU), (FF)}

- Event

{(UU), (FU)}

- Event

{(UU), (UF)}

(2)-Write down the following events (which outcomes are contained in the event) AND

calculate the associated probability (you should express the probability first as a

function of

and then find its value, for example for (a.), The older car is Foreign=

the compliment of

{ (UF), (FF)}

P(The older car is Foreign)=P((The older car is American))=

0.3

{ (FU), (FF)}

P(The newer car is Foreign)=P((The newer car is American))=

Page|3/4

0.5

GENG200ProbabilityandStatisticsforEngineers,MidtermExam1Spring2012

Old car or New car is American or both cars are American: {(UU), (UF), (FU)}=

=0.7+0.5-0.4=0.8

{(FF)}, the complement of this event is at least one car is American (

Then P(Neither car is American)=1-P(

0.8

0.2

This is equivalent to say that (old car is American and New car is Foreign) or (New car is

American and old car is Foreign): {(UF),(FU)}

{(UF),(FU)}= {(UU), (UF), (FU)}\ {(UU)} (At least one car is American A A minus

both cars are Americans A A ) , therefore ,

P(Exactly one of the two cars is American)=

P({(UF),(FU)})= P A A

P A A

0.8

0.4

0.4

(3)- Calculate the probability that the older car is American given that the newer car is

American

P A |A

P A A

P A

0.4

0.5

4

5

0.8

Part C 20 points

A couple wishes to have exactly two female children in their family. They will have

children until this condition is satisfied. Assume that the probability of having a boy (B)

Page|4/4

GENG200ProbabilityandStatisticsforEngineers,MidtermExam1Spring2012

or a Girl (G) are equal, that is P(B)= P(G)=0.5. Let Y the random variable that counts the

number of children.

(1)- What is the distribution of Y (specify the parameters of this distribution)?

The couple will keep having kids (keep trying) until having two girls (two successes).

The number of children (the number of trials) is then following a Negative binomial

Distribution with parameter r=2 (the number of success) and p=0.5 (the probability of

success P(G)=0.5)

~

2,

0.5

(2)- What is the probability that the family has exactly three children?

.

(3)- How many children would you expect this family to have?

E[Y]=r/p=2/0.5=4 children

(4)- How many Boys would you expect this family to have?

Since the family will have exactly 2 girls (condition of negative binomial), then the

number of boys will equal the total expected number of children found in question 3

minus 2 (two girls)

E[number of boys]=E[number of children]-E[number of girls]=4-2=2 boys

Part D 30 points

Precious stones are dispersed at random in a large field according to a Poisson

distribution with parameter a=2 per square kilometer.

(1)- How many precious stones would you expect to be found in a field of 5 square

kilometer?

X: random variable counting the number of stones

E[X]=2*5=10 stones/ 5 km^2

(2)- What is the probability that at least two stones are found in an area equal to 5 square

kilometer?

X is following a Poisson distribution with parameter 10

Page|5/4

GENG200ProbabilityandStatisticsforEngineers,MidtermExam1Spring2012

2

1

11

10

0.99

(3)- How large should the radius R of a circular sampling region taken so that the

probability of finding at least one stone in the region equals 0.99?

The region is circular with a radius R km, then the surface of this area is:

Let Y be the random variable counting the number of stones in the area S, then Y would

2

!

1

1

0

0.01

Page|6/4

1

2

log 0.01

2

0.856 km

2

!

0.99

0.99

log 0.01

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