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Qatarr Univers

sity
College of
o Engine
eering
GENG
G 200 Pro
obability and Statistics forr Enginee
ers
Sprring 2012
2: Midterm
m Exam 1

Faculty: D
Dr. Adel E
Elomri

Date: 0
04April2012

CandidatesmustNOTu
useredinkorPencil
WriteCleaarlyandConciisely
ThisExamcontains4Paarts:(PartA:20points,PaartB:30poin
nts,PartC:20
0points,Part
D:30points)
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ngthissheet.
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ninpage4
n
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orthatIdono
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Dr. Ad
del Elomrri

GENG200ProbabilityandStatisticsforEngineers,MidtermExam1Spring2012

Part A 20 points
A family that owns two cars is selected, and for both the older and the newer car we note
whether the car was manufactured in America (U), Europe (E), or Asia (A).
(1)- What are the possible outcomes of this experiment (write the sample space S) ?
(New car, Old Car)
S={(UU), (EE), (AA), (UE), (EU),(AE),(EA),(UA), (AU)}
(2)- Which outcomes are contained in the event that one car is American and the other is
foreign ?
{ (UE), (EU), (UA), (AU)}

(3)- Which outcomes are contained in the event that the two cares are made in Europe ?
Identify the outcomes of the compliment of this event.
{(EE)},
The compliment is at least one car is not made in Europe
{(UU), (AA), (UE), (EU),(AE),(EA),(UA), (AU)}
(4)- Identify two events that are mutually exclusive.
There are many mutually exclusive events, for example
Event 1: the two cars are made in Europe {(EE)}, AND Event 2: the two cars are made in
America {(UU)},
Any two events with empty set intersection are mutually exclusive

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GENG200ProbabilityandStatisticsforEngineers,MidtermExam1Spring2012

Part B 30 points
Referring to the previous exercise, a car made in Asia or Europe will be considered as
foreign (F) car. let:

={the older car is American} and


0.7 ,

American},

0.5, and

={the newer car is


0.4,

(1)-Write down the following:


- The new sample space, S
let (New car, Old Car), S={(UU), (UF), (FU), (FF)}
- Event

={the older car is American}


{(UU), (FU)}

- Event

={the newer car is American}.


{(UU), (UF)}

(2)-Write down the following events (which outcomes are contained in the event) AND
calculate the associated probability (you should express the probability first as a
function of

and then find its value, for example for (a.), The older car is Foreign=

the compliment of

a. The older car is Foreign


{ (UF), (FF)}
P(The older car is Foreign)=P((The older car is American))=

0.3

b. The newer car is Foreign


{ (FU), (FF)}
P(The newer car is Foreign)=P((The newer car is American))=

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0.5

GENG200ProbabilityandStatisticsforEngineers,MidtermExam1Spring2012

c. At least one car is American


Old car or New car is American or both cars are American: {(UU), (UF), (FU)}=

=0.7+0.5-0.4=0.8

d. Neither car is American (both cars are foreign)


{(FF)}, the complement of this event is at least one car is American (
Then P(Neither car is American)=1-P(

0.8

0.2

e. Exactly one of the two cars is American


This is equivalent to say that (old car is American and New car is Foreign) or (New car is
American and old car is Foreign): {(UF),(FU)}
{(UF),(FU)}= {(UU), (UF), (FU)}\ {(UU)} (At least one car is American A A minus
both cars are Americans A A ) , therefore ,
P(Exactly one of the two cars is American)=
P({(UF),(FU)})= P A A

P A A

0.8

0.4

0.4

(3)- Calculate the probability that the older car is American given that the newer car is
American
P A |A

P A A
P A

0.4
0.5

4
5

0.8

Part C 20 points
A couple wishes to have exactly two female children in their family. They will have
children until this condition is satisfied. Assume that the probability of having a boy (B)
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GENG200ProbabilityandStatisticsforEngineers,MidtermExam1Spring2012

or a Girl (G) are equal, that is P(B)= P(G)=0.5. Let Y the random variable that counts the
number of children.
(1)- What is the distribution of Y (specify the parameters of this distribution)?
The couple will keep having kids (keep trying) until having two girls (two successes).
The number of children (the number of trials) is then following a Negative binomial
Distribution with parameter r=2 (the number of success) and p=0.5 (the probability of
success P(G)=0.5)
~

2,

0.5

(2)- What is the probability that the family has exactly three children?
.

(3)- How many children would you expect this family to have?
E[Y]=r/p=2/0.5=4 children
(4)- How many Boys would you expect this family to have?
Since the family will have exactly 2 girls (condition of negative binomial), then the
number of boys will equal the total expected number of children found in question 3
minus 2 (two girls)
E[number of boys]=E[number of children]-E[number of girls]=4-2=2 boys

Part D 30 points
Precious stones are dispersed at random in a large field according to a Poisson
distribution with parameter a=2 per square kilometer.
(1)- How many precious stones would you expect to be found in a field of 5 square
kilometer?
X: random variable counting the number of stones
E[X]=2*5=10 stones/ 5 km^2
(2)- What is the probability that at least two stones are found in an area equal to 5 square
kilometer?
X is following a Poisson distribution with parameter 10

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GENG200ProbabilityandStatisticsforEngineers,MidtermExam1Spring2012

2
1

11

10

0.99

(3)- How large should the radius R of a circular sampling region taken so that the
probability of finding at least one stone in the region equals 0.99?
The region is circular with a radius R km, then the surface of this area is:

Let Y be the random variable counting the number of stones in the area S, then Y would
2

follow a Poisson distribution with a parameter

!
1

P(finding at least one stone in the region S) =


1

0
0.01

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1
2

log 0.01
2

0.856 km

2
!

0.99
0.99
log 0.01