Global Warming

So What? .
July 2009 .

Droughts Worsen. Deserts Spread.

The Culprit?

. Damages from our emissions so far will intensify for decades to come.

Evaporation . .

The more stuff we put in the air now, the faster the damages worsen and the worse they eventually get.

Droughts Worsen .

“We are already experiencing dangerous human interference in the climate system: … increased incidents of heat waves, of floods, of droughts, of intense tropical storms, of accelerated sea level rise…. The issue now is whether we can avoid catastrophic human influence on the climate system. I believe we still have a good shot at avoiding catastrophic interference. … I sometimes say that the situation we are in is like driving a car with bad brakes toward a cliff in the fog.”
President Obama’s Science Adviser John Holdren, April 8, 2009 . .

The Way It Is .

•  Oil has become expensive; it stayed above $80 a barrel for months. •  Gasoline last year topped $3 a gallon for months in the US. •  The US imports 60% of its oil. That’s up from 53% in 2000, when George W. Bush took over, and 38% when his father took office. •  The US imports twice as much oil as any other nation uses. Texas uses 3.1 times as much oil as it pumps out, Louisiana 4.1 times as much. •  US oil production peaked in 1970. •  World oil use outpaces oil found by 3:1 each year, and rising. •  World oil production is peaking over 2005-10. •  The era of cheap gasoline in America is over.
Oil Imports

Greenhouse Effect
Dark Earth absorbs sunlight. Earth warms up and radiates heat. Greenhouse gases in the air (GHGs) intercept some outgoing radiation and re-radiate it back down. This warms Earth more. More GHGs = warmer still. Cyclic changes in solar output have warmed and cooled Earth modestly. By now, human GHGs warm Earth much more than solar changes do. Light surfaces reflect sunlight. Those surfaces don’t warm Earth much. Changing a light surface (ice) to a dark one (water) warms Earth. Changing a dark surface (forest) to a lighter one (desert) cools Earth.

Greenhouse Gases
• GHGs warm Earth by 32°C (58°F).
Earth would average 0°F without them.

• Water vapor (H2O) does 2/3 of this warming.
But H2O stays up for only 2-3 weeks, on average. Concentrations vary many-fold over time and space. As Earth warms up, evaporation increases H2O in the air. This amplifies warming from other GHGs considerably. So, scientists often treat H2O not as a GHG, but a feedback for other GHGs.

•  Carbon dioxide (CO2) does 55% of the remaining net warming.
Almost all US CO2 comes from burning coal, oil & natural gas. Per unit of energy, coal emits 4 units of CO2, oil 3, natural gas 2.

•  Methane (CH4, natural gas) does 16%.
CH4 comes from wetlands, cows, rice, landfills, coal mines. •  CFCs (old air conditioners, ozone hole) do 11%, ozone (O3) 10%, net. •  Nitrous oxide (N2O - fertilizers) does 5%, black soot most of the rest.

Vostok Ice Core Data
For hundreds of thousands of years, temperatures have tracked the levels of GHGs CO2 and CH4 in the air. The difference between 190 and 280 ppm of CO2 was 10°C (18°F) and ice almost a mile deep covering Chicago. ∆
+ 2006 temperature

Thousand Years before Present ppm = parts per million ppb = parts per billion

Vimeux, Cuffey & Jouzel, Earth and Planetary Science Vostok Ice (2002) Letters 203: 829-843 Core Data


Up 38%

Acceleration began.

300 ppm (maximum between ice ages)

Annual Averages

So far, half the CO2 we emited has stayed in the air. The rest has gone into carbon sinks - into oceans, trees, soils, rocks. But ocean carbon sinks are fading. Disappearing forests weaken another sink. The difference between 280 and 380 ppm of CO2 remains to be seen. We’ve seen some of it so far. But much of the effect is delayed. It materializes slowly.

C

CO2 Levels in the Air

Watts / m2
- World Radiation Center - NASA

∆ °C

Solar Irradiance at Earth Orbit, Annual Average Global Air Temperature, Land Surface, 3-Year Moving Average

In 2007, solar output was the lowest yet recorded (in 28 years), but Earth’s air temperatures (land surface) were the highest yet recorded.
Sun vs Temp

• Half the sunlight reaching our atmosphere makes it to the surface.
Barriers include blue sky (not black), clouds, haze & the ozone layer.

Clouds
• Clouds reflect some sunlight away, cooling Earth. They also keep outbound heat in, warming Earth, esp. at night. •  Low clouds cool Earth more than they warm it. High clouds do the reverse. •  Clouds cover a little more than half of Earth. On balance, they cool Earth. •  Changes in cloud cover affect global temperature. So do changes in % high clouds vs low clouds. • Many factors affect cloud formation & distribution. At night & going up over mountains, air cools. Cool air holds less H2O, so it will often cloud up & rain.
Clouds

Sulfates & Cooling
•  Dark sulfates in the air block sunlight. That cools Earth. •  Sulfates make haze & become cloud condensation nuclei. More sulfates = cloudier = cooler.
•  Most sulfates come from burning coal, some from volcanoes.
SO2 goes up the smokestacks. It changes to SO4 (sulfate) up in the air.

•  GHGs stay in the air many years, sulfates usually for days. •  GHG levels keep rising. Sulfate levels don’t. •  Sulfates currently offset 40% of warming from human GHGs.

∆°C

Sulfate Cooling Un-Smooths GHG Warming
NASA GISS - Earth’s
7,000 weather stations - adjusted for urban heat island effects

sulfates still 3x 1880 levels
Brown . cloud . grows over . India, . China. . cool Mt. Pinatubo cool

Sulfates up 46%. cool
Krakatoa erupts Soufriere, Katmai erupts S Maria, Pelee erupt cooler

Sulfates fall 13%.

Sulfates up 110%. major cooling

El Chichón cool

Colima erupts cool cool cool WW I: more SO2 up the stacks cool

Great Depression less SO2 up the stacks
unmasked

WW II: more SO2 cool

warming

US SO2 JFK-LBJ cuts start Expansion: warming more SO2 cool Agung erupts cooler

Sulfates up 52%. Cooling 40 offsets 61 1880 GHG 1900 warming.

89
1920

77

116
1960

162

118
2000

Sulfate Levels in Greenland Ice
milligrams of Sulfate per Ton of Ice

(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2002)

Sulfate Cooling Un-Smooths GHG

Land warms more (faster) than oceans.

It warms more when & where it’s coldest: in winter, at night, & especially toward the poles.

Earth Is Heating Up.

Our Greenhouse effect intensifies.

•  Earth now absorbs 0.5% more energy than it emits - . a 435 million MW heat gain
(±75 million MW)

435 million MW = 100 x global electric supply = 30 x human energy use.

This absorption has been accelerating, from near zero in 1960. •  Air at the land surface is 1.0°C warmer than 100 years ago. Half that warming happened in the last 25 years. Another 0.6°C warming (so far) is “in the pipeline.” That is,
Earth will warm another 0.6°C, so it emits enough heat to balance absorption.

• Air at the sea surface is 0.8°C warmer than 100 years ago. •  The oceans have gained ~ 10 x more heat in 40 years than ALL the energy humans have EVER used.
One MW can power several hundred US homes. ~ means “approximately, roughly, is about equal to” 1°C = 1.8°F.

The Tipping Points
•  Report to US & British Legislators - January 2006
in the US, to Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME)

What would make climate change accelerate, so natural forces defeat our efforts to slow it? 1  Disappearance of sea ice
means more heat is absorbed by the water below.

2  Carbon sinks fade & fail
in oceans & forests.

3 Methane release from permafrost
revs up warming in a vicious circle.

More Heat - So? Water
Hurricanes convert ocean heat to powerful winds & heavy rains. Intense hurricanes are becoming more common. Higher hurricane energy closely tracks sea surface warming.
Percentage of Hurricanes, by Intensity
All Ocean Basins Combined
50%
weakest
Category 1 Categories 2-3 Categories 4-5

North Atlantic Hurricane Activity
1.5 1.3 1.1
East of Caribbean, west of Africa 6-18°N, 20-60°W
Total Energy from Hurricanes / Year (Divided by Adjusted Baseline) September Sea Surface Temperature (°C - Baseline)

40%

30%
strongest

0.9 0.7 0.5
Webster, 2005

20%

10% 1972

1977

1982

1987

1992

1997

2002

5-Year Averages

0.3 1945

Emanuel, 2005

1955

1965

1975

1985

1995

2005

With more carbon, oceans have grown more acidic. Shells dissolve easier. Warmer water holds less dissolved oxygen. Fish & mollusks suffer. Oceans warmed 0.15°C over 1997-2004, so plankton absorbed 7% less CO2. Warming was far strongest in the N Atlantic. CO2 uptake there fell by half.

Reservoirs in the Sky
Mountain glaciers and snowpacks are dwindling ever faster.
Himalayan glaciers may vanish by 2035, & with them the Ganges River in the dry season, the Indus River too, the Yellow River maybe. Mountain snows melt earlier. California’s San Joaquin River (Central Valley, US “salad bowl”) could dry up by July. The Colorado and Rio Grande too? The Colorado’s 10-year drought is the worst since white men came. Lake Mead water levels dropped 60 feet from 2000 to 2003. 50% chance it’s functionally dry by 2021. .

Earth’s Thermostat
Greenland’s ice-melt rate rose 150% over the past decade.
Its net melt-water already ~ US water use.

Arctic Ocean ice is shrinking fast.
2007’s minimum ice area was 20% below 2005’s record. That’s down 40% in 25 years. In 2008, icepack volume was the lowest on record, ice area the 2nd lowest. The icepack could melt away by fall in ~ 10 years and be gone all summer in ~ 50.

West Antarctica’s net ice-melt is ~ half of Greenland’s.
Its smaller ice shelves, along the Antarctic Peninsula, are breaking up.

Sea level could rise more than 3 feet, in this century alone. Thawing permafrost holds 2-4 x MORE carbon than ALL the carbon humans have EVER emitted. Permafrost area shrank 7% from 1900 to 2000. Thawing permafrost will likely add 50-100 ppm of CO2 to the air by 2100.
Frozen subsea methane hydrates hold even more carbon. The Arctic Ocean has begun emitting big burps of methane.

What Else? Droughts
From 1979 to 2005, the tropics spread & the sub-tropic arid belts grew ~140 miles toward the poles, a century ahead of schedule. Forest fires now burn 6 x as much area / year as before 1986. Severe drought hit 45% of North America in 2002, so plants absorbed 50% less CO2. Canada’s forests recently turned into a net carbon source.
The Amazon’s 2005 drought was the worst in years, so the rainforest temporarily became a carbon source.

Australia’s 7-year drought is the worst in many centuries.
North China & Argentina’s Pampas now suffer 50-year droughts. In 2007, a 100-year drought hammered Atlanta & the whole Southeast. California’s 3-year drought is an official emergency.
In 2006-7, Los Angeles rainfall was the lowest on record.

Is That All?
No Water
..

Over the last 13 years, deserts grew from 18 to 27% of China’s area.

With more evaporation & irrigation, many water tables fall 3-20 feet / year. . Remember the Ogalalla! (aquifer under the Great Plains) .
Since 1985, half the lakes in Qinghai province (China) vanished. 92% in Hebei (around Beijing).

Irrigation wells chase water ever deeper. Water prices rise. Inland seas and lakes dry up & vanish, for example: the Aral Sea, Sea of Galilee, Lake Chad (Darfur), Lake Eyre. More rivers fail to reach the sea: - the Yellow, Colorado, Indus, Darling Rivers so far.

In 2005-6, the Union of Concerned Scientists calculated how climate would change for 9 Northeast and 6 Great Lakes states in 2 scenarios: #1 - a transition away from fossil fuels, or #2 - continued heavy reliance on them (business as usual emissions). By 2085, averaged across 15 states, the climate change would be like moving 330 miles to the SSW (coal & oil use dwindle), or moving 650 miles to the SSW (heavy coal & oil use). Consider central Kansas, heart of wheat country. 330 miles to the SSW lies the area from Amarillo to Oklahoma City. 650 miles to the SSW lies the area around Alpine & Ft. Stockton, Texas. 2 people / square mile. Cactus grows there. Mesquite & sagebrush too. No wheat
Turning Wheat into Cactus

Some scientists are saying publicly that if humanity goes on with business as usual, climate change could lead to the collapse of civilization, even in the lifetime of today's children. United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon said “I think that is a correct assessment.” He added carefully “If we take action today, it may not be too late.”
September 24, 2007
UN Chief on Climate Change

1969

By 2059, “Once a Century” Drought Can Cover 45% of Earth. Supply-Demand Drought Index .
1999

• •

Business . as Usual . Emissions .
in 2059 2 x CO2 +4.2°C +14% rain 2029 2059

Climate Model: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)
DRY 0 1 5 16 36 36 16 5 1 0 WET

% Occurrence in Control Run

Fig. 1 in David Rind, R. Goldberg, James Hansen, Cynthia Rosenzweig, R. Ruedy, “Potential Evapotranspiration and the Likelihood of Future Droughts,” Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 95, No. D7, 6/20/1990, 9983-10004.

Projected Drought Conditions
70 60 50


2x CO2

Land Surface, except Antarctica June-August, Business as Usual Emissions
Based on Supply-Demand Drought Index
Dry 16% Drought 5% Extreme Drought 1%

}

Occurrence in Control Run

Occurence (%)

40 30 20 10 0 1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060
2x CO2

Fig. 2 in Rind et al., 1990

“Once a century” drought can cover 45% of Earth’s land by 2059.

Over 2000-04, the average frequencies are 18% for “Drought” and 33%Projected Droughts by Year . for “Dry”. A weighted average for “as dry as 11% of the time” drought is ~ 27%.

Thanks for the crystal ball.
BUT Is any of this actually happening? YES. . Remember forest fires, falling water tables, disappearing lakes and rivers, spreading deserts?
(Please also remember “11% of the time” drought was projected to increase to 27% of the time over 2000-2004.)

Now for the BIG

PICTURE

Switch from what could happen to what has happened already.
% with Severe or Extreme Drought .
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 1950

Droughts Are Spreading Already.
30% = 16 million square miles.


.

Very Dry Areas - % of Global Land Area, 60°S - 75°N

. Palmer Drought Severity Index < -3.0

precipitation effect warming effect precipitation + warming

Compare 2002 to 1979.
11% of the area during 1951-80 once per 9 years

Area where rain is scarce increased by quite a bit: 3-5 million square miles.

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

from Fig. 9 in Aiguo Dai, Kevin E. Trenberth, Taotao Qian [NCAR], "A Global Dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: Relationship with Soil Moisture and Effects of Surface Warming,” Journal of Hydrometeorology, December 2004, 1117-1130

Compare 30% actual severe drought area in 2002 (11% of the time during 1951-80) to 27% projected for 2000-2004 in previous slide. Droughts spread, as projected or faster.

Earth’s area in severe drought has tripled since 1979. Evaporation at work Over 23 years, the area with severe drought grew by the size of North America.

OK, So Warming Produces More Dry Areas.

What about Wet Areas?
Won’t rainfall increase elsewhere? Won’t wet areas increase as much as dry areas? After all, what goes up must come down. Right?

20

Very Wet Areas - % of Global Land Area, 60°S - 75°N
precipitation effect warming effect precipitation + warming

20% = 10.6 million square miles.

Drought Severity Index > +3.0

% Very Wet - Palmer

15

Rainy area shrank & grew.

10
During 1950-1980, the precipitation effect made 11.2% of areas very wet. Cooling (1957, ‘66, ‘77, ‘79) kicked that up to 11.5%.

Compare 2002 to 1979.

5

combined effect: decrease 2-6% (1-3 million square miles)

0

-5 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

from Fig. 9 in Dai, Trenberth & Qian, 2004

The combined decrease was 6% from 1979 to 2002 alone, but only 3% from the 1950-80 mean to the 1992-2002 average. Over 23 years, the soggy area shrank by the size of India, more or less. Areas Very Wet

RECAP
Severe drought has arrived, as projected or faster. Severe drought now afflicts an area the size of Asia.
So, farmers mine groundwater ever faster for irrigation.

From 1979 to 2002

(+0.5°C) .

1) The area where rain is scarce increased by the size of the United States. Add in more evaporation. . 2) The area with severe drought grew by the size of North America. 3) The area suffering severe drought tripled. 4) The similarly wet area decreased by the size of India.

What Drives Drought?
•  The water-holding capacity of air rises
exponentially with temperature.

•  Air 4°C warmer holds 33% more moisture
at the same relative humidity.
(That’s the flip side of “air cools. .It holds less H2O, so it clouds up & rains.”)

More moisture in the air does not equal more clouds. To maintain soil moisture, ~10% more rain is required to offset each 1°C warming. Warmth draws more water UP (evaporation), so less goes DOWN (into soils) or SIDEways (into streams). More water is stored in the air, less in soils.
Satellites are already showing more water vapor in the air. Not all the water that goes up comes back down.

Droughts - Why Worry?
2059 - 2 x CO2 (Business as Usual Emissions)
Rind et al., 1990

•  More moisture in the air, but 15-27% less in the soil.
•  Average US stream flows decline 30%, despite 14% more rain.
Over 56 years, inflow to Pacific fell 6%, Indian Ocean 3%.
Dai 2009

•  Tree biomass in the eastern US falls by up to 40%. •  More dry climate vegetation: savannas, prairies, deserts The vegetation changes mean

• Biological Net Primary Productivity falls 30-70%.
SWITCH from PROJECTIONS to ACTUALS. .

• Satellites show browning of the Earth began in 1994.

Fung 2005 Droughts - Why Worry?

Crop Yields Fall.

Rind et al., 1990

United States: 2059 Projections - doubled CO2 - Business as Usual –  Great Lakes, Southeast, southern Great Plains •  Corn, Wheat, Soybeans - 3 of the big 4 crops (rice is the 4th) 2 Climate Models (Scenarios) .

•  NASA GISS Results
Goddard Institute for Space Studies

(based on 4.2°C warmer, 14% more rain)

– Yields fall 30%, averaged across regions & crops.
•  NOAA GFDL Results
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab

(based on ~ 4.5°C warmer, 5% less rain)

– Yields fall 50%, averaged across regions & crops.
CO2 fertilization not included . So things won’t be this bad, especially this soon. Temperature effects of doubled CO2 will keep growing - eventually to 4.2 or 4.5°C - but over many decades, even after 2100. CO2 fertilization boosts yields 6-30% or more in experiments, where water and other nutrients are well supplied, and weeds and pests are controlled. That won’t happen as well in many fields. Groundwater and snowmelt for irrigation grow scarcer in many areas. Other factors (esp. nitrogen) can limit growth. Thus CO2 fertilization benefits in fields may be less.

Plants evaporate (transpire) water in order to (1) get it up to leaves, where H2O & CO2 form carbohydrates, (2) pull other soil nutrients up from the roots to the leaves, and

. [like blood]

[like sweat] .

(3) cool leaves, so photosynthesis continues & proteins aren’t damaged. When water is scarce, fewer nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus) get up to leaves.
With more CO2 but less H2O, plants make more carbohydrates, less protein.

For wheat, corn & rice, photosynthesis in leaves slows above 35°C (95°F) and stops above 40°C (104°F). Warming (above 35 or 40°C) hurts warm, tropical areas harder & sooner. Warming above the norm cuts corn, rice & soybean yields by ~10% / °C. 1°C warming cut corn & soybean yields 17% in 618 or more US counties. 2°C warming cut yields by 37-58% for irrigated wheat in India, but only 8-38% with CO2 fertilization.
Photosynthesis, Warming & CO2



• •

.

2400 2000
Millon Tons

World Grain Production

UN Food & Agriculture Organization; Worldwatch Institute, 2006

400 350 300 250
kg / capita

1600 1200 800 400 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
.

Million Tons per capita

200 150 100 50 0 2010

80% of human food comes from grains. •  World grain production rose little from 1992 to 2006.

•  Production per capita fell from 343 kilograms in 1985 to 306 in 2006.

World Grain Production .

•  Any future food production increases will occur away from the tropics. In the tropics, food production will fall. •  Soil erosion continues. Water to irrigate crops will grow scarcer, as glaciers and snowpacks vanish, water tables fall, and rainfall becomes more variable. •  Satellites show that, since 1994, hot dry summers outweigh warm, wet springs. A world that was turning greener is now turning browner. •  Grain stocks (below) are at low levels.

World Grain Stocks
140

Days of Consumption

120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1960
FAO: Crop Prospects and Food Situation

1970

1980

1990

2000

World Grain Stocks

2010

With less food, feed fewer animals. Eat less meat.

Farm Adaptations to Drought
•  Plant more drought-resistant crops. •  Plant smarter, like System for Rice Intensification. More space between
the roots cuts fertilizer & pests, hikes yields & raises drought tolerance.

•  Plant crops that rebuild soil carbon. Suck CO2 out of the air.

•  Use much more drip irrigation.
•  Cover reservoirs and irrigation canals to slow evaporation. •  Plant more wheat, less rice. Rice is water-hungry.

•  Go North, young man!
Mexicans to the US, Americans to Canada, Pakistanis to Britain, Algerians to France, Turks to Germany, Chinese to Siberia, Arabs to Russia.

With food stocks at low levels, food prices rose steeply in 2007.

UN, Food & Agriculture Organization: World Food Situation / FAO News

Poor people, in poor nations, could not afford to buy enough food in 2007-8. Malnutrition rose. So did starvation. The problem has abated, for now.
Food Price Indices, by Type

World Grain Prices
900 850 800 750 700 650

Rice

US $ / Tonne

600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 J F M A M J J A S O N D

Over 2005-7, • . world prices . rose 125% . for wheat, . 100% for corn, . 27% for rice. + . soybeans 83% . in just 1 year. . Look at 2008. .
.

Wheat

Corn
UN, Food & Agriculture Organization
J F M A M J J A S O N D J

2007

2008

Over 2006-7, . food prices rose . 18% in China, . 13% in Indonesia. & Pakistan, . 10+% in India, . Russia & . Latin America. . .

Over 2007-8, world food prices rose 20-150%.

In the US, food prices rose too: whole wheat bread 12%, milk 29%, eggs 36%. Why? Grain for ethanol, more meat for China, droughts in Australia & Ukraine, devalued $. High oil prices mean more $ for fertilizer & pesticides, & especially to fuel pumps & tractors.
World Food Prices .

Deserts Are Already Spreading.
50 Year Trend in Palmer Drought Severity Index, 1950-2002
75 60 45 30 15 0 -15 -30 -45 -60 -180
Fig. 7 in Dai, Trenberth & Qian, Journal of Hydrometeorology, Dec. 2004

-120 -6.0 -4.0

-60 -2.0

0 0.0 +2.0

60 +4.0

120 +6.0

180

More negative is drier.

More positive is wetter.

The Sahara Desert is spreading south, into Darfur & the Sahel. See Spain, Italy, Greece. . The Gobi Desert is spreading into northeast China. More sandstorms visit Beijing. Retreating glaciers moisten the soil in Tibet. .The USA has lucked out so far. .

1°C warming is here. 0.6° more is in the pipeline. + Emissions continue.

2°C warming is unavoidable, but it is manageable. Holding warming to 2°C, not 4°, prevents these losses:

Gross World Product
$45 Trillion, ~ GWP

1/5 of the World’s Food Amazon Rainforest 1/5 of the world’s oxygen supply Gulf Stream + West Antarctic Icecap 1/2 of All Species
4°C warming threatens civilization itself. 5°C is worse.
2° vs 4° Warming

much of Florida, Long Island, Norfolk area, Cape Cod

Details to follow: first 2, next 3, then 4, finally 5°C.

2°C Warming - 450 ppm CO2e

.

(Waxman-Markey bill or Sanders-Boxer bill in Congress) .
Stern Review, British government, Oct. 2006. (a report by scores of scientists, headed by World Bank’s chief economist) . selected effects - unavoidable damages

.

•  Hurricane costs double. Many more major floods •  Major heat waves are common. Forest fires worsen. •  Droughts intensify. Deserts spread.
•  Civil wars & border wars over water increase: more Darfurs.
CNA Corp. - 11 retired US Generals & Admirals, April 2007

•  Crop yields rise nowhere, fall in the tropics. •  Greenland icecap collapse becomes irreversible.
If we play it right, melting takes ~3,000 years. If we play it wrong, ~300 years.

•  The Ocean begins its invasion of Bangladesh.
The invasion lasts for centuries. We choose now how fast and how far.

3°C Warming - 550 ppm CO2e
(McCain-Lieberman bill, watered down)
additional damages - avoidable .
Stern Review & CNA Corp.

•  Droughts & hurricanes get much worse. •  Hydropower and irrigation decline. Water is scarce. •  Crop yields fall substantially in many areas. •  More water wars & failed states. Terrorists multiply. •  Amazon rainforest collapse becomes obvious. •  Tropical diseases spread farther and faster. •  15-50% of species face extinction.

.

4°C Warming - 650 ppm CO2e
(double pre-industrial levels)

(Bingaman bill, no price cap)
further damages - avoidable
. Stern Review & CNA

Water shortages afflict almost all people.

•  Crop yields fall in ALL regions, by 1/3 in many. •  Entire regions cease agriculture altogether, e.g., Australia. •  Water wars, refugee crises & terrorism become intense. •  Methane release from permafrost accelerates. •  The Gulf Stream may stop, monsoons often fail.
“Gulf Stream” is shorthand for the world ocean thermohaline circulation, to which it’s connected.

•  West Antarctic ice sheet collapse speeds up.

We played it wrong.

Adios to New Orleans, Amsterdam, Venice, Miami, Shanghai, Calcutta, & later much of New York, London, Washington.

5°C Warming - 750 ppm CO2e
(Business as Usual Emissions)
my extrapolations +

.

Deserts GROW by 2-4 x the size of the US.
Much of southern Europe would look like the Sahara.
Lord Stern, 2009

Agriculture would be destroyed and life would be impossible, over much of the planet.
Lord Stern, 2009

World food falls by 1/3 to 1/2.
The result? Extended conflict, social disruption, war essentially, over much of the world, for many decades. Lord Stern, 2009

Human population falls a lot, . to match the reduced food supply. Other species fare worse. Act now to avoid this.
5°C Warming .

Solutions Put way less carbon in the air. Take carbon out of the air, big time.

90 80 70

CO2 Emission Paths to Stabilization
Stern Review
Business as Usual 550 ppm CO2e 450 ppm CO2e

Global Emissions - . Billion Tons CO2e/yr

60 50 40

CO2e (CO2 equivalent) includes warming from CO2 & other GHGs, less the cooling effect of sulfates.

-32%
30 20 10 0 2000

Total Warming -67% +3°C -75% +2°C

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

Holding eventual warming to 2°C, above 1750 levels, will be challenging. We are already at 435 ppm CO2e (including 385 of CO2). 450 is not far.
(Feb. 2007 IPCC projections OMIT warming before 1990 and after 2099. That’s almost as much as they include. They understate total warming.) 435 ppm CO2e = 385 CO2 + 310 other GHGs - 260 sulfate cooling. CO2 Stabilization Paths

Paul Volcker, former chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, spoke to the American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt on February 5, 2007.

He said he did not think that taxes on oil or carbon emissions would ruin the economy. In fact, he thought they would not have that much of an impact on the economy overall. He added, if we don't cut carbon emissions, we can be sure that the economy will go down the drain in the next 30 years. “What may happen to the dollar, and what may happen to growth in China or whatever,” he said, raising his voice, “pale into insignificance compared with the question of what happens to this planet over the next 30 or 40 years if no action is taken.”

Paul Volcker, Fed Chairman .

Stern Review

Costs of Inaction

.

Costs

inflation-adjusted $

a HUGE hidden TAX!
$50,000 / American

(Business as Usual Emissions: +5°C)

Costs of Action $30-75 / year / American – EPA, CBO Spend 1% of GWP, each year, ± 2%.
(-1% = energy efficiency)

–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

$74 Trillion (present value) ~ 1.6 x GWP . by 2100, $20 Trillion Damages per year (~1.5 x US GNP) . that is, 11-14% of future GWP each year $85 / Ton of CO2

Damages fall to $20 - $30 / Ton of CO2. Savings ~ $2.5 Trillion, net from each year’s spending.
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

Annualized, Benefits

~ 7 x $420 Billion Expenses.

Use Low-Carbon Products: $500++ Billion/Year Market by 2050.

Geo-Engineering Solutions - Smoke & Mirrors
1 Mirrors in Space - to block sunlight
We’d need half a million square miles of mirrors now, twice the size of Texas. Add that much in 30 years, and again in 50. Even if the mirrors are as thin as Saran Wrap, we’d need dozens of space shuttle-sized cargo launches every day this century.

Mirrors in space make good solar sails, they move cargo to Mars.

2

Sulfates in the Stratosphere - to block sunlight
We’d need hundreds of flights every day to the stratosphere by big cargo planes. The sulfates will fall out eventually, so we will breathe them in. Sulfates already kill over 1 million people a year. Sulfate deaths would soar.

3

Farm the Oceans - take carbon out of the air.
Add iron filings to iron-poor areas of oceans. Algae bloom & suck CO2 from the air. Algae must suck 8 x as much carbon from the air as the food we harvest contains. Every year, just to break even. Oceans may be too small, even if fertilization is perfect. Algae may not sink. Tiny creatures eat them. Soon carbon can re-enter the air. Additional fertilizers (K, P, N) may be needed. Other problems will arise.

Take More Carbon Out of the Air.
1  Plant more trees. It’s a good idea, but deforestation continues
- for lumber, palm oil, soybeans, fuelwood, subsistence farms. Trees need water, but soils will have less. Forest fires run wild.

2 

Maintain forest soils: humus, roots, fungi, bacteria, leaf litter.
Below-ground carbon ~ above-ground (20-70°N). Drought & fires hurt.

3

Rebuild prairie grasslands. Perennial grass roots add carbon to soil.
Imitate buffalo herds - with short rotation cattle grazing. Dung beetles move carbon underground. Lots more rain soaks in. .
Absorb ~ 2 Tons carbon / acre / year. Take 80 ppm CO2 from the air.
.

4

Put CO2 into crushed rock. Speed natural process up 20,000 x. Rocks have weathered for eons, taking CO2 out of the air. Spread around millions of 2-story towers with crushed rock, & take CO2 from power plant stacks to make salable gypsum, etc.

World CO2 Emissions
from Fossil Fuels
India’s increase was 93% of US’. China’s 2,396 increase ~ US + Europe + Mid East + misc Asia + Russia + Latin America + Japan

International Energy Agency, 2008

28.5 Billion Tons in 2006
Mid-East & C Asia 8.1% Misc* Asia 6.9% Russia 6.0%

Changes, 1997-2006

Latin America 5.5%
Japan 4.4%

* Misc. = Korea, Indonesia, Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.

Million %/ Tons Year 358 0.70 US 2,396 6.54 China 227 0.52 Europe 741 4.39 Middle East 488 3.21 misc. Asia 222 1.57 Russia 286 2.25 Latin America 112 1.05 Japan 332 3.68 India 201 2.36 Africa 71 1.38 Canada 96 2.56 Australia+ 5,562 2.44 World +25% over 9 years +3% from 2005 to 2006

India 4.2%

Europe 17.4%

Other 11.7%

Africa 3.7%

China 19.3%

Canada 2.2%

United States 20.7%

Oceania 1.6%

China passed the US in 2007. US emissions fell 3% 2005-08, China’s grew slower.
In the US, fossil fuel CO2 comes 44% from oil, 36% from coal, 20% from natural gas. 40% comes from electricity, 33% from transportation, 17% from industry.

1900-2002 World Resources Institute 1980-2006 US Department of Energy - EIA 1950-1980 Oak Ridge National Lab

China 8.9%

Russia 8.3%

Mid-East & C Asia 5.5%

Cumulative (1900-2006) CO2 Emissions 1.1 Trillion Tons
Rich Countries
Japan 4.3% Latin America 3.7% misc Asia 3.4% Other 8.5%


CO2 People . 66% 13% 16%
.

Russia, Mid-East+ Developing Countries

8% .
.

21% 76%

.

Africa 2.5%

Poor . nations . believe rich countries created the problem.

.
. . . .

India 2.5%

Canada 2.2% Oceania 1.3% United States 29.0%

.

. Europe
28.4%

Warming melts away Himalayan glaciers. When they vanish, perhaps by 2035,

.

the Ganges & maybe the Yellow River will dry up part of the year.

. That’s bad for crops in India and China. At Bali in December 2007, a Chinese delegation told US Senator John Kerry

China was ready to cut its own GHG emissions - IF the United States first set mandatory reductions of its own.

11 10 9

US CO2 Reduction Paths: Bills in Congress
), tri (H ll / Pe cap Uda price with
+5°C

CO2e Emissions Billion Tons / Year

8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Bingaman (S ), no price ca p ~ Bush prop osal, April 20 08

+4°C

McCain / Lieberman (S) early 2007: New York Times, World Resources Institute; November 2007, NRDC; June 2008, House Global Warming Committee April 2009 House Commerce Committee Olver / Gilchrest (H)
Warn e eber man (S) Kerr y/S now e (S ) r / Li

+3°C +2.8°C

+2.4°C +2.2°C

80% Reduction

+2°C

2035

2040

2045

2050

Please contact your US Senators (and Representative). Ask them to support a US carbon cap & trade system that reduces caps steadily, to at least 80% below 2007 levels by 2050. Limit warming to 2°C. CO2 Cap Bills in Congress . Ask your friends and relatives to do the same. Pass this show on to them.

Solutions are out there, ready for a carbon cap.

In January 2007, 10 companies called for a carbon cap & trade system to cut US CO2 emissions 60-80% by 2050. General Electric BP America Caterpillar Alcoa Duke Energy DuPont PNM Resources Florida P&L Pacific G&E Lehman Brothers In May 2007, 12 companies joined them: General Motors Shell Johnson & Johnson AIG ConocoPhillips Pepsi John Deere Siemens Dow Chemical Alcan Boston Scientific Marsh Inc.

• More than 40 other big companies are supportive. Examples: Boeing Wal-Mart Staples National Grid Ford Whirlpool Exelon Texas Utilities (revamped) Chevron Chrysler Google American Electric Power Xerox IBM NRG Energy Bank of America

Companies are set to cash in on green technologies.
•  •  •  •  •  •  For example, . GE Wind Philips Electronics (CFL lighting) GE Wind Evergreen Solar (PV cells) Archer Daniels Midland (ethanol & biodiesel) Entergy (nuclear power plants) Johnson Controls (energy management systems) Bechtel (IGCC coal plants) Magna International (lightweight auto parts) Wheelabrator (landfill gas) Southwestern Energy (natural gas) Halma (detect water leaks) Veolia Environnement (desalinization plants)
IGCC = integrated gasified combined cycle, helps sequester CO2. CFL = compact fluorescent light.

PV = photovoltaic.

Meanwhile, the insurance industry has begun to act.
•  Re-insurers - Lloyd’s of London, Swiss Re, and Munich Re look to cut their losses by urging governments to mitigate climate change. •  Direct insurers - like Allstate, State Farm, MetLife, Hartford are cutting back coverage in vulnerable areas, such as Florida. •  Nebraska insurance commissioners require planning for drought risk. •  Large investors push many companies to disclose their climate-related risks to shareholders. A few examples include investors Merrill Lynch, Dreyfus, the California Retirement System, & the Investor Network on Climate Risk ($5 Trillion in managed assets). Among the targets are ExxonMobil, GM, & Ford.

* Trucks, airlines, railroads, buses, pipelines, ships

Other Transportation 14% *

US CO2 Emissions, by Use


Cars & Other Personal Transportation 20%

Gas & Oil for . Electricity 7%

Industry 17% Coal for Electricity . 33% Home Heat . 6%.

Commercial Buildings 3%

2007: USDOE - EIA (US Department of Energy Energy Information Administration)

Concentrate on the BIG stuff: coal for electricity (with a carbon cap) & personal transportation.

US CO2 by Source

2009 rates, 3 mo
-4.6%, from 2008, 3 mo


US DOE - EIA
.94% 6.5%

3.92 Trillion kWh

20.3%

21.2%

1.76%
1.3% 2.7%

.42%

Geothermal .36%
.38%

CO2

-9.4%

Coal 48.5%
46.8%

.01%

-11.1% since 2007

Wind was up from .63% in 2006. Coal was down 1.3% since 2004. US MWh by Source

Solutions - Electricity
• Price it right retail, for everyone: low at night, high by day, highest on hot afternoons.
•  Coal: Use less. Scrub out the CO2 with oxyfuel or pre-/post-combustion process. Store the liquid CO2 far underground. There’s room for over 100 years of output. •  Natural Gas & Oil follow loads up & down all day, but are getting expensive. To
follow loads: store energy in car batteries, water uphill, compressed air, flywheels, hydrogen.

•  Wind - Resource easily exceeds total use: US Plains, NC-MA coast, Great Lakes. Growing 30+%/year, it’s now cheaper than coal in many places. 3% of US GW
Wind turbines off US East Coast could replace most US coal plants. In last 3-4 years, US coal capacity fell 0.3 GW, while wind capacity rose 21 GW.

•  Solar - Resource dwarfs total use. Output peaks near when cooling needs peak.
Growing 30+%/yr. PV costs 20¢/kWh, thermal (with flat mirrors) 10¢. Most is used overseas.

•  Nuclear - new plants in China, India, US Southeast. Compress air underground. •  Water, Wood, Waste - Rivers will dwindle. More forest fires limit growth. •  Geothermal - big potential in US West, Ring of Fire, Italy. Pump water uphill at night.

Solutions - Personal Vehicles
US cars get 22 mpg. Pickups, vans & SUVs get . 18. Average 20. Detroit is now mostly bankrupt. Toyota has begun to outsell Ford in the US & GM around the world. . Hybrid sales are soaring, up to 56 mpg. . New cars average 37-44 mpg in Europe, 45 in Japan. To cut US vehicle CO2 by 50% in 20 years is not hard. . GM already did it in Europe. HOW? .

Lighten up, downsize, don’t over-power engines. . Use 5-speeds, hybrid-electric, diesel. Ditch SUVs. . Use pickup trucks & vans only for work that requires them. . Store wind on the road with plug-in hybrids. Charge them up at night.

Solutions - Other Transportation
•  Fuels - Cut CO2 emissions further with low-carbon fuels? –  Save ethanol & biodiesel for boats & long-haul trucks & buses. –  Get ethanol from sugar cane (energy out / in ratio = 8:1). BUT corn ethanol’s ratio is only 0.8:1, maybe 1.7:1.
Use cellulose?
Grain for ethanol to fill one SUV tank could feed a man for a year. Palm oil & prairie grass energy out / in = 0.7:1, up to 6:1. Better microbes? For biofuels, GHGs from land use changes DWARF GHG savings. Hydrogen has low energy density, is hazardous. Limit to airplanes, ships.

•  Trains, Planes, and Ships
Use high-speed magnetic levitated railroads (RRs) for passengers. Shift medium-haul (150 - 800 miles) passengers from

airplanes to maglev RRs (faster than TGV, bullet trains). Shift long distance freight from trucks to electric RRs. Big cargo ships use 2 MW wind turbines, hydrogen, nuclear reactors.

Solutions - Efficient Buildings +
•  At Home
Use ground source heat pumps.

Better lights - compact fluorescents (CFLs) & LEDs. Turn off un-used lights.
Energy Star appliances - front load clothes washers, refrigerators, air conditioners Insulation - high R-value in walls & ceiling, honeycomb window shades, caulking Low flow showerheads, microwave ovens, trees, awnings, clotheslines, solar roofs

•  Commercial -

Use micro cogeneration, ground source heat pumps.

Don’t over-light. Use day-lighting, occupancy sensors, reflectors.
Use LCD Energy Star computers. Ventilate more with Variable Speed Drives.

Use free cooling (open intakes to night air), green roofs, solar roofs. Make ice at night. Melt it during the day - for cold water to cool buildings.

•  Industrial

- Energy $ impact the bottom line. Check % IRRs.

Efficiency is generally good already. Facility energy managers do their jobs. Case-specific process changes as energy prices rise. Use more cogeneration.

Solutions - Personal
Make your home & office efficient. Don’t over-size a house. Drive an efficient car. Don’t super size a vehicle.
Don’t drive much over 55 mph. Combine errands, idle 10 seconds tops. Walk. (Be healthy!) Carpool. Use bus, RR, subway. Bicycle.

Buy things that last. Fix them when they break. Eat less meat. It’s healthier! 1 calorie of beef = 7-10 of grain. Reduce, re-use, recycle. Minimize packaging. Use cloth bags.

WRITE to CONGRESS.

• • •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  • 

Oil pumped, found, peak - Brown 2007, USDOE-EIA. CO2 levels: 1958-2005 - Keeling et al., 2005; 1740-1960 - IPCC Mini-References GHGs & % effect: IPCC; H2O role: www.nature.com/climate/2008/0812/full/climate.2008.129.html CO2 un-dissolves as H2O warms: HS chemistry text. CH4 sources: http://www.radix.net/~bobg/faqs/scq.methane.html Solar output: www.pmodwrc.ch/pmod.php?topic=tsi/composite/SolarConstant. UCS study: www.climatechoices.org/ne/ 435 million MW heat gain = area of Earth x 0.85 W/m2 - Hansen 2005. 0.6°C “in the pipeline” - Hansen 2005 Temperature increases: land surface & land-ocean - NASA GISS: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ Ocean heat: Miles 2004 (1.45 x 1023 J added 1955-98) + 10 yrs @ 0.6 W/m2 ~ 2.5 x 1023 J. US use ~ 1020 J/yr. Intense category 4/5 hurricanes - Webster 2005. Hurricane energy tracks SSTs - Emanuel 2005 Greenland km3 icecap melting - Rignot 2006. Arctic ice area - www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm Arctic Ocean icepack volume & thickness - Meier 2008, Rothrock 1999, Yu 2004. (USS Nautilus data, 1960s) Permafrost: 3-5 x the carbon humans emitted - Zimov 2006; shrank 7% - IPCC Feb. 2007; to 2100 - Friedlingstein 2006. Ocean CO2 uptake fell 7%, 50% - Behrenfeld 2006, Schuster 2007, Lee 2009, news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7053903.stm Subtropical arid belts moved ~140 miles: Seidel 2007; Reichler 2006. Severe drought cut CO2 uptake: Jacobson 2007. US forest fires up 6 x since 1986 - Westerling 2006. Siberian fires: Soja 2007. Canadian fires: Stock 2006 Falling water tables, vanishing lakes & rivers: Lester Brown, Plan B, 2006. China deserts +50%: Globe & Mail, 3/6/08 Ocean pH - Turley 2005. Land & sea carbon sinks fade - Jacobson, Potter, Wiedinmyer, Canadel, Le Quere - all 2007 33% > H2O in air at = relative humidity - Rind 1990. 10% > rain offsets +1°C - M. Parry 2005 & Lester Brown. Tree biomass falls 40%: Overpeck & Bartlein, 1989 (in Rind 1990). Simulation: species not allowed to migrate north. Browning of Earth began in 1994: Fung, 2005. Ganges dry in 2035: www.earthpolicy.org/Updates/2008/Update71.htm Crop yields could fall 30-50% - Peart et al., Ritchie et al., Rosenzweig et al., all 1989 (in Rind et al., 1990) CO2 fertilization in greenhouses - e.g., Wittwer 1992, Idso 2001; in open fields - Idso 2002, Kimball 2002 Photosynthesis above 35°C & crop yields fall 8-58% with 1°C or 2°C rise - Lester Brown, Plan B v 2.0, 2006 Grain: production - FAO, Worldwatch Institute; use - Climate Change Futures: Swiss Re & Harvard S Public Health Food price rises: FAO www.fao.org/docrep/011/ai473e/ai473e00.htm, Brown (EPI) 2008, Chicago Board of Trade Damages for 2°, 3°, 4°C - most from Stern Review, 2006. Wars: CNA, 2007. Oxygen: www.rain-tree.com/facts.htm Damages: $74 trillion (T) - Watkiss 2006; $20 T/yr - Kemfert 2005; 11-14% GWP/yr, $20-85/T CO2 - Stern Review 2006 Mirrors & sulfates block sun: Wikipedia & back of envelope. Iron in ocean, e.g., Planktos Inc. (www.planktos.com) Carbon reduction costs - Stern Review 2006. Green Companies - Smith Barney/Citigroup 2007, 08; CERES 2005, 06 Coal oxyfuel process, 100 years of emissions storable underground - Metz et al. (IPCC) 2005; Herzog, MIT, 2006 US wind MW & kWh % - USDOE-EIA. Wind & solar growth %/yr - e.g., USDOE (distributed energy - wind tech) Average mpgʼs - USDOE EIA (Monthly Energy Review, Table 1.9). Hydrogen cars - Spessard 2006. Ethanol: energy out: Pimentel 2005, Shapouri 2004; SUV / food: Brown 2007; Land use: Searchinger, Fargione 2008. Taking Carbon Out of the Air: 1) prairie soils www.holisticmanagement.org/; 2) a) trees & forest soils & b) rock: www.onearth.org Spring 2008: a) giving trees & b) mad scientist; 3) smokestack to products: www.carbonsciences.com

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