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T. Osaki & T. Takada

Department of Architecture, the University of Tokyo, Japan

ABSTRACT: This paper deals with development of seismic fragility curves of buildings associated with

seismic performance index (Is) based on Bayesian updating theory. Several buildings empirical fragility

curves based on damage data in the Hyogo-ken Nambu earthquake in 1995 have been established. But estimated fragility curves are too approximate to apply to a particular building, because they have been constructed from various types of building data, from simulated spatial distribution of ground motion intensity.

For more accurate estimation of a building, more detailed information of building such as the result of seismic

diagnosis has to be reflected to the fragility estimation. These precise information will be fully utilized in the

fragility estimation, based on Bayesian updating theory.

INTRODUCTION

terms of fragility curves which describe the conditional limit state probability under the specified

earthquake ground motion intensity. Building fragility curves in Japan have been estimated by several

researchers using the large amount of building damage data gathered in the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nambu

earthquake in Japan (Murao, 2000; Hayashi, 2000).

The fragility curves thus constructed have large

variation, say, 0.6 in a standard deviation of lognormal distribution, since the used data include wide

range of soil conditions, structural types, estimation

error of ground motion intensity, the way of describing ground motion intensity and so on. Although

these fragility curves can be easily used for the fragility estimation of a group of buildings subjected to

different levels of the ground motion intensity, they

may not be adequate for the fragility estimation of a

particular building from which more information

can be taken through design documents, the results

of seismic diagnosis, in-site test and so on.

Buildings built before 1981 when the new seismic design code was put into practice must be

checked to see whether or not they meet the new

code in Japan according to the guideline of seismic

diagnosis.

Hayashi (2000) has recently proposed that these

results of seismic diagnosis are to be reflected in the

building fragility evaluation. His idea is that a fragil-

the Is value. However, the fragility curves have been

constructed with subjective engineering judgment,

and have no clear evidence. It then leads to needs of

more rational treatment of new information to subjectively selected results.

The Bayesian updating technique can be effectively utilized to this kind of problem. Once the detailed information of buildings, such as structural

types, predicted ground motion intensity and the Is

values can be obtained, the empirical fragility curves

can be elegantly updated with the Bayesian theory.

Thus, the present paper applies this technique to the

building fragility estimation with information of

newly investigated buildings.

2

More than hundred thousand buildings were severely damaged and hundred and fifty thousand

buildings were moderately damaged in the Hyogoken Nambu earthquake on January 17, 1995. A large

amount of damage data were gathered by Architectural Institute of Japan (AIJ), Kobe City and others.

The seismic fragility can be estimated by utilizing

the damage data and the spatial ground motion distribution was proposed by several studies (Yamaguchi, 1999). The empirical fragility curves have been

185

drawn to same categories of structural types, building vintage and the number of stories, and often

have the following lognormal function, (Murao,

2000)

ln PGV O

)

Pf ( PGV )

(1)

where )() is the standard normal cumulative distribution function and Oand ] are the mean and standard deviation of the logarithm of building fragility

in terms of the peak ground velocity, respectively.

Oand ] are often determined by the least-square

method.

2.2 Seismic performance index Is

The seismic performance index based on Guideline

for Evaluation of Seismic Capacity of Existing Reinforced Concrete Buildings (1997) in Japan has been

commonly used to judge whether seismic strengthening is necessary or not for future strong motions.

The second performance index Is is expressed as in

the following

Is

E0 SDT

(2)

E0

CF

(3)

estimated by the ultimate shear capacity in terms of

a story shear coefficient, and F is an index associated with the story ductility, estimated by ultimate

deformation capacity normalized by the story drift

of 1/250 when a standard size column is assumed to

fail in shear. For most ductile columns, F is assumed

3.2, and for a short and extremely brittle column F

becomes 0.8. SD in Eq.(2) is a modification factor,

related to the stiffness discontinuity along height,

eccentric distribution of stiffness in planes, irregularity of framing and so on, ranging from about 0.5

to 1.2. T is a reduction factor, reflecting the grade of

deterioration, ranging from about 0.5 to 1.0.

If the second seismic performance index Is which

represents energy dissipation capacity till the story

shear collapse is far less than 0.6, the building would

be judged to need to be strengthened to achieve Is

greater than 0.6. This critical value 0.6 is empirically

determined based on the intensive studies on building damage in the past big earthquakes in Japan.

Building designed according to the current seismic

design code (after 1981) are considered to possess Is

value more than 0.6.

186

AIJ (1997) has investigated damage of RC buildings

in the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nambu earthquake and classified damage state into 5 levels. They are shown in

the Table 1.

Table 1. Damage state levels defined by AIJ (1997)

Damage State

Contents

Nonstructural damage

w<0.2mm

0.2mm<w<1.0mm

1mm<w<2mm

w>2mm

Reinforcements are exposed.

Some parts of RC-structure

is collapsed

Collapse

Structure is collapsed

w=crack width

The fragility function Pf of a PGV value which is

proposed by Hayashi is associated with the second

seismic performance index Is in the following form

similar to Eq.(1).

ln PGV ln(T1 Is)

Pf ( PGV , Is | 4) )

T2

(4)

4 (T1 ,T 2 )

(5)

are TandT by using the regression analysis to fit

the fragility of RC buildings including all buildings

whose seismic performance indexes are equal to Is.

7he parameterT is the standard deviation of lognormal distribution and the parameter T is related to

a buildings resistance in 50% probability of failure.

In his study, T is assumed to be constant (=0.6) and

by utilizing Is distribution (Hori, 1997) constructed

by using a few number of RC building damage, the

parameter Tis estimated by regression analysis.

There are, however, not enough supportive reasons

to set the constant T (=0.6) and this assumption

seems to be somewhat subjective. These parameters

should be determined on the basis of the available

damage data. The parameters of Hayashis equation

will be updated with the Bayesian theory in the following.

This information is shown in Table 2 (Yamaguchi, 1999; Kabeyasawa, 1997) and building location,

Estimated PGV distribution and epicenter of the

earthquake are shown in Figure 1.

The aim of this study is to update the empirical fragility proposed by Hayashi with utilizing the detailed data collected by Kabeyasawa et al (1997).

The Bayesian theorem is fully used with the following well known from

f (4) v cL(4) p(4)

Site

:

:

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

:

:

(6)

c L(4) p(4)d 4

1

(7)

in which 4 is the vector of parameters to be estimated, p(4)is the prior distribution representing our

knowledge about 4 before making observations,

L(4) is the likelihood function representing the information contained in the set of observations, c is a

normalizing factor, and f(4) is the posterior distribu

tion representing our updated state of knowledge

about 4. The prior may incorporate any subjective

information about 4 that is based on our engineering

experience and intuition (Der Kiureghian, 2000).

This study deals with the available detailed data

as new information.

41 - 80

81 - 120

121 - 160

161 - 200

201 - 240

241 - 280

!(

^_

Location

Epicenter

!(

(! !(

!( !(

Damage state

:

:

No damage

Severe damage

Collapse

Moderate damage

Collapse

Moderate damage

Moderate damage

Slight damage

Minor damage

:

:

p(4) const 0 d T1 d 1000 0 d T2 d 1

area in the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nambu earthquake and

detailed buildings information such as structural Is,

damage state, building site can be combined together. Most parts of the investigated buildings are

three or four story public schools.

0 - 40

Is

:

:

1.49

0.46

0.3

0.45

0.59

0.57

0.64

0.71

0.55

:

:

3.1 The detailed damage data in the 1995 Hyogoken Nambu earthquake

PGV (Kine)

PGV

:

:

83

84

84

87

96

98

105

57

77

:

:

(8)

The range of 4is determined referring to several researches on RC seismic fragility curves.(Murao,

2000; Hayashi, 2000)

!(

(!!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!( !( !(

(!!(

!(

(!!(!( !(

!(

!(

!(

!(

12

16

km

^_

Figure 1. Building location and estimated PGV distribution

187

(Kiureghian, 2000; Shinozuka, 1998)

of fragility assessment associated with seismic performance index Is was proposed in this study.

Bayesian theory can synthesize subjective and available objective information, as a result of the updating, well-balanced fragility curves are constructed.

To construct more detailed fragility curves which

reflect individual buildings both analytical and empirical fragility curves will be synthesized by utilizing the Bayesian updating theory, as a next step.

L(T1 ,T 2 )

ln PGVi ln T1 Isi

T2

ln PGVi ln T1 Isi

1 )

T2

)

i

(9)

all buildings that failed in a damage state which are

severer than the particular damage state and the second product is for all buildings that did not fail in

the particular damage and in the severer damage.

3.4 Point estimates of fragility

One option for the fragility estimation is to use point

estimates of parameters 4(Kiureghian, 2000; Shinozuka, 1998)This study adopts maximum likelihood estimate 4 of the posterior distribution.

Pf ( PGV , Is | 4

T2

CONCLUSIONS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The prediction of strong ground motion and the RC

structural damage survey data used in this paper

were provided by Dr. Naoya Yamaguchi et al at the

University of Tokyo and Prof. Toshimi Kabeyasawa

at the University of Tokyo. The authors would like

to acknowledge their technical support.

1000

(10)

900

800

Proposed

Hayashi

700

lognormal standard deviation of the fragility) are

computed in order to maximize ln L(T ,T ) or ln f (T ,T ) ,

which satisfies the following conditions:

600

500

400

300

w ln f (T1 ,T2 )

wT1

w ln f (T1 ,T2 )

wT2

(11)

200

100

0

0

standard optimization algorithm.

Figure 2 shows the contours of the posterior distribution in the collapse damage state. Table 3 shows

the statistics of the fragility parameters proposed by

this study based on the Bayesian updating along

with Hayashis results. Figures 3 to 7 are comparison of two fragility curves in each damage state:

based on proposed by this study and proposed by

Hayashi. It is found that each of the fragility curves

proposed by this study is evaluated more conservative than Hayashis fragility curves and T which are

the standard deviations of lognormal distribution

proposed by this study are smaller than T proposed

by Hayashi.

0.4

0.6

0.8

this study and Hayashi

1

0.9 Is=0.2

Is=0.6

0.8

3.5 Results

0.2

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

Proposed

Hayashi

0.1

0

0

50

100

PGV(kine)

150

200

188

0.9

0.9

0.8

Dam age probability

Proposed

Hayashi

Is=0.2

0.8

0.7

0.6

Is=0.2

0.5

Is=0.6

0.4

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.3

Is=0.6

0.1

0.2

0

0

Proposed

Hayashi

0.1

0

0

50

100

PGV(kine)

150

200

Proposed

Hayashi

0.8

Dam age probability

150

200

Slight damage

Minor damage

Moderate damage

Severe damage

Collapse

Proposed

1

2

75.0

0.5

190.0

0.6

250.0

0.3

300.0

0.3

540.0

0.5

Hayashi et. al

1

2

125.0

0.6

250.0

0.6

375.0

0.6

500.0

0.6

625.0

0.6

0.7

Is=0.2

0.6

REFERENCES

0.5

Is=0.6

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0

0

50

100

PGV(kine)

150

200

1

Proposed

Hayashi

0.9

0.8

Dam age probability

100

PGV(kine)

study with those proposed by Hayashi et al

0.9

50

0.7

Is=0.2

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

Is=0.6

0

0

50

100

PGV(kine)

150

200

assessment, Applications of statistics and Probability, Volume2, BALKEMA

Sasani, M. Der Kiureghian A. & Bertero. V 2002. Seismic fragility of short period reinforced concrete structural walls

under-source ground motions, Structural Safety 24 123-138,

ELSEVIER

Shinozuka, M. 1998. Statistical Analysis Bridge Fragility

Curves, 19 Proceeding of the US-Italy Workshop on Prospective Systems for Bridges, New York, N. Y., April 26-28.

Hayashi, Y. Miyakoshi, J. & Watanabe, M. 2000. Seismic risk

evaluation of RC building based on Kobe earthquake of

1995, Japan, journal of Institute of Social Safety Science

No.2

Hori, S. et al. 1997. Study of relationship between seismic index of structure and damage to reinforced concrete school

buildings during the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nambu earthquake,

Summaries of technical papers of annual meeting AIJ

Okada, S. & Takai, N. 2002. Damage Pattern Classification to

Stone Masonry, Wood-Frame, and Concrete-Frame Structure Buildings for Earthquake Field Investigation, Proc. of

China-Japan Comparative Study on Earthquake Damage

Survey and Related Research Fields, 10/9-11/2000, Kunming, China, 75-83

Miyakoshi, J. Hayashi Y, Tmura K. & Fukuwa N. 1998. Damage ratio functions of buildings using damage data of the

1995 Hyogo-ken Nambu earthquake, Proceedings of 7th International conference on Structural Safety and Reliability,

Vol.1 33-42

Kabeyasawa, T. et al. 1997. Report of RC buildings damages

due to Hyogo-ken Nambu earthquake, AIJ

Murao, O. & Yamazaki, F. 2000. Development of Fragility

Curves for Building based on Damage Survey data of local

government after the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nambu earthquake,

Journal of Structural and Construction engineering,

AIJ,527

Yamaguchi, N. & Yamazaki, F. 1999. Estimation of ground

motion in the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nambu earthquake based on

building damage data, JSCE journal No.612:325-336

189

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