Iowa Floods 21st Century visuals

100-yr type floods are now expected to average one in 17-years. With Climate change; 100-yr type floods could average one in 5-years

Rain days per year have increased substantially

Ames, IA Precipitation by year 1893-2007
60
y = 0.0517x - 69.076

50

40

30

20

10

0 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

100+ yr Precipitation, 20%+ increase

Final, Revised for: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 77, No. 2, Feb. 1996, pp 279-292.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/gcps/papers/icc-us.pdf

1950-1993 Precipitation

Most of the United States experienced significant precipitation increase. Diminished Tropical Storms impacted Florida.

Heavy rain events are more common.

Increased River Flow (NE Iowa)
Turkey River at Garber, IA
3500 y = 6.932x - 12627 3000

2500

6-fold increase of Flood Prone Years

2000

1500

1000

500

0

2-fold increase in annual river flow
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

1920

Nishnabotna @Hamburg, IA
http://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/ia/nwis/annual
6000 5000 4000
mean annual cfs

(SW Iowa)

6-fold increase of Flood Prone Years

Kishwaukee @ DeKalb

3000 2000 1000 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

y = 18.825x - 35716

2-fold increase in annual river flow
Year

Iowa River@ IowaCity
9000 8000 7000

mean annual cfs

6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1900 y = 14.586x1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1910 1920 - 26619 year

Flood prone years have reduced amplitude during years that reservoir is effective

Cedar River @ Austin, MN
900 800 700 600 500 400 300

200
100 0 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

South Central MN Precip Oct- Sep
50

40

30

20

10 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

a
2020

Wet Interval

Wet Interval

Dry Interval

Wet/Dry Intervals are typical of 2/3 of USA

Cyclic Climate Events, Global Scale
• Some contend that since 1950 or so all global scale climate change is related to the CO2 change. • Some contend that a global scale cyclic climate event will impact the global climate. • Cyclic cooling or precipitation reduction should not be considered to negate “greenhouse” potential impact on climate.

Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.

Dominance of greenhouse over some other factors influencing global scale climate. Periodic major ocean currents are not included and are considered to have a major global temperature impact.

• Dr. Don J. Easterbrook (PDO + CO2)

The PDO

Pacific impact on temperature at global scale. Dr. Easterbrook feels the PDO remains functional.

Do Not be fooled by 30 years of “cooling”

Iowa Not Dry @ +2.5C

Iowa Oct 15, 2007

Climate change models: like pattern, 17% more rain.

Wm Gutowski

PET @ +2.5C
• Will crops benefit from a 17% increase in precipitation or will potential evapotranspiration increase exceed it? • Assuming that the diurnal range is 13C (23F) in summer now and at +2.5 C and that most midsummer mornings have dew. • July average high now: 30C, Mid-day VPD= 15.73 • July with change: 32.5C, for a VPD= 17.74 • Increase in PET = 13% • Assumes sun and wind are unchanged from now. • So the added rain exceeds the max added water use by 4%. A 4% increase in water increases the flood events by 3x (that is have 3 times the floods in Iowa we have now.
A 2.5C global scale warming could be expected to increase Iowa flood events by 3X

• The ice change demonstrates a major short coming of the GCMs (none can put the melt to CO2 forcing). • Clearly state of the science GCM (global climate models) cannot at this time explain the global scale reduction of sea ice observed in the 15 years. This indicates that it is not yet time to withdraw GCM modeling research and development funding.

Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by Global Climate Models

2005 2008 2007

Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 10, p. 771

Where has all the Sea Ice gone?

• It may be differential impacts of particulates • 2009 is the year to learn

• http://www.bluewaterstudios.com/ • David Thoreson , Iowa

END
Elwynn Taylor Iowa State University setaylor@iastate.edu

www.extension.iastate.edu
Iowa State University Extension

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