Let the games begin

November

20, 2014
..And may the odds be ever in your favour
Suzanne Collins, The Hunger Games
At the stroke of the midnight hour on 20 November, President Mahinda
Rajapaksa, who turned 69 years old on Tuesday was tipped to finally rubberstamp and reveal the worlds worst kept secret. On 19 November 2014,
President Rajapaksa completed the mandatory four years in office before he
was constitutionally empowered to call snap elections for the presidency.
Speculated for months nationally and internationally, prefaced by two
months of soft campaigning by President Rajapaksas re-election team and
Opposition squabbling and intrigue, the die shall finally be cast. Soon, Sri
Lankans will embark on a brief six-week journey on the road to electing
their seventh executive president.
Over the years, major national elections have often taken on an air of
excitement and expectation in Sri Lanka. Incumbents are always unpopular,
voters spy small chances to cast a revolutionary franchise. There are always
surprises in the ring pleasant and unpleasant. Violence is never a stranger
to Sri Lankan polls. And yet promises of change and new beginnings
whisper in the wind.

Mahinda
Rajapaksa

Ranil
Wickremesinghe

Karu
Jayasuriya

Chandrika
Kumaratunga

Maduluwawe Sobitha Thero Athuraliye Rathana Thero Sarath Fonseka

The election scheduled for early 2015 is a very different beast.

For one thing, it is an election no one really wants, not even the incumbent.
President Mahinda Rajapaksa could have eased the pressure on himself by
punishing corruption and setting out a reforms agenda in 2015, setting the
course for his re-election bid on schedule in 2016. With two years left in his
second term, such a course of action would have helped to stem the tide of
unpopularity his administration is facing on the street and set him up as a
truly invincible incumbent seeking a dubious third term. But when politics is
slave to the stars, reason becomes inconsequential in the equation.
The comedy of errors precipitating this presidential election two years
ahead of schedule begins in celestial realms. It includes a motley crew of
opposition players who appear to be running somewhere very fast and for a
very long time, with no clear idea of where they are headed. So far, the
road to the election proclamation has been fraught with intrigue, scandal
and false starts. It has made for highly potent political gossip, conspiracy
theory, wild speculation that alternates between despair and hope all of it
hungrily devoured by the public. The incumbents massive edge is already
clear. As the JVPs Tilvin Silva pithily remarked a few days ago, President
Rajapaksa has already run half a presidential race unchallenged.
Winning all the battles
With the full might of the state machinery at his beck and call and systems
that ensure the countrys democratic health remains sound severely eroded
by nine years of his reign, President Rajapaksa has already won every battle

ahead of the announcement.

The Chief Justice installed following the unconstitutional sacking of Shirani
Bandaranayake in January 2013 has played his part with aplomb. Chief
Justice Mohan Peiris paved the way for President Rajapaksa to declare
elections this month by issuing a still undisclosed opinion about the
legitimacy of a third term for the incumbent on 10 November.
The opinion is to be tabled in Parliament in due course, but for the moment
copies of the document, sent under confidential cover to President
Rajapaksa, have been leaked and excerpts are available in sections of the
media.
Peiris and five other judges of the Supreme Court argue in a unanimous
opinion that a popular incumbent must not be prevented from contesting a
third time. The alleged leaked version of the opinion is coming in for quiet
criticism in legal circles for its tenor and language, legal sources noted.
It would appear that having regard to the fact that a two-time victor at a
presidential election has garnered the popular support of the majority of the
people as a political leader at successive elections, such a mandate holder
should not be fettered with the sanction of a bar for a third time in
accordance with the vision of that time. The imposition of such a
disqualification is anathema to popular sovereignt

y as recognised in the determinations of

18th Amendment. It would appear that it was in these circumstances that
the legislature thought it fit to remove such a bar in a manifestation of its
commitment to take the nation to great heights on the anvil of
reconciliation and reconstruction.
This is not the first time the Chief Justice has taken it upon himself to
advocate for Government policy on matters such as reconciliation, human

rights and urban development.

The dangerous consequences of the Shirani Bandaranayake sacking have
come home to roost. Other sections of the 18th Amendment have ensured
President Rajapaksa controls every other crucial arm of the state. The
Rajapaksa administration has the Elections Commission, the police
department and the public service in a vice-like grip that will prove highly
advantageous in a bitterly fought election. In many ways, the regime has
been prepping for this battle to the death for years now.
But the greatest despair still lies, even on eve of this most vital
announcement, in the lack of a credible challenger.
In search of commonality
For months now Opposition groups have been trying to cement a common
platform to challenge the Rajapaksa juggernaut at this election everyone
knew was coming. Maduluwawe Sobitha Theros National Movement for
Social Justice was able to gain significant ground over the past year,
advocating hard for the abolition of the executive presidency.
The UNP, as the nucleus around which any Opposition alliance will coalesce,
has see-sawed shamelessly on the issue. At times the UNP appears to coyly
agree with the abstract concept of common candidacy. But at others it
engages in a boisterous show of strength as the main base of Opposition
support that must call the shots on the candidate. Despite the UNPs
stronger showing at the Uva provincial elections in September, it is the
Sobitha movement which has created the most amount of excitement in
the Opposition and civil society circles and a great deal of disturbance in
the Rajapaksa campaign.
The meeting between President Rajapaksa and Sobitha Thero engineered
by DNA politician Tiran Alles exposed the regimes concerns about the
monks campaign. It also went some distance to expose Alles, who most
recently engineered the reappointment of UNP MP Sajith Premadasa as the
partys deputy leader.
Premadasa has since been the most vocal opponent of the common
Opposition platform and the staunchest backer of UNP Leader Ranil
Wickremesinghes candidacy at the January poll. Alles publications have
recently become the most ardent advocate of a Ranil Wickremesinghe
candidacy. They had vilified Wickremesinghe in the crudest fashion and
denounced him for clinging to the leadership of the UNP for over a year, but

now market him as the most viable Opposition option. Premadasa told BBC
Sandeshaya earlier this week that he would support the candidature of Karu
Jayasuriya or Chandrika Kumaratunga if his party made the decision to back
either as a presidential candidate. Audio of the interview is freely available,
yet Premadasa denied the report in one of Alles publications the next day.
The dangerous Alles-Premadasa nexus and its machinations with regard to
the Oppositions fortunes at the election became too stark to ignore
however only when news broke of the meeting brokered by the DNA MP
between Sobitha Thero and the President.
Other envoys have also visited the Chief Incumbent of the Kotte Naga
Viharaya, including President Rajapaksas campaign manager Basil
Rajapaksa, sources said. As a main benefactor of the Naga Viharaya, Alles
commands influence to arrange such meetings with the monk. The
Economic Development Minister had been particularly curious about the
individuals involved in Sobitha Theros campaign to abolish the presidency
and the movement to forge a common Opposition.
Sobitha Theros woes
Matters came to a head when Sobitha Thero was suddenly admitted to
hospital for medical treatment soon after these high level meetings. The
monk has been admitted to the Malabe private medical college hospital
with severe bronchitis and a back ailment, sources close to the monk
disclosed.
His decision to be admitted to the Malabe hospital was motivated by the
fact that his trusted physician is a full-time consultant at the institution, the
sources explained. While it is unclear if the pressure brought to bear upon
the monk by senior sections of the Government had any impact on his
health condition, Sobitha Thero remains highly frustrated by the UNPs
ongoing personality clashes that he believes is derailing the common
Opposition movement. Opposition groups are fathoms deep in negotiations
this week, with an announcement on the candidate expected by the
weekend or soon after.
Four names remain in play for the role of President Rajapaksas main
Opposition challenger. Former President Chandrika Kumaratunga remains
an option, as UNP Leadership Council Chairman Karu Jayasuriya, who many
acknowledge would be an intelligent and credible choice. Ranil
Wickremesinghe remains very much in the running, while a fourth name

drawn from the Governments own ranks is also being measured for

suitability.
Maithripala Sirisena, the SLFPs own General Secretary was being vetted by
opposition teams as a potential fourth option. The hope would be to use
Sirisena to break a chunk of SLFP votes from the incumbents tally and
convince other disgruntled SLFP members in the Government to rally
behind a true blue instead of a Rajapaksa who has consistently sidelined
SLFPers during his tenure.
Wickremesinghe is clearly the preference of the Rajapaksa regime, which
believes it can denounce him as a traitor and capitalise on his string of
defeats at elections to re-clinch the presidency with relative ease.
Conversely, Sobitha Theros success at bringing Opposition forces together
remains the regimes worst nightmare. If Ranil Wickremesinghe emerges as
the common Opposition candidate however, with the backing of the monk
and other civil society groups, he could still pose a formidable challenge to
the incumbents campaign.
Common candidacy advocates fear the UNP leaders bona fides with regard
to abolition less than they do the drop in morale and excitement should
Wickremesinghe prove the last man standing. Theoretically, and based on
the current predictions, Wickremesinghe should be able to garner no more
or no less than any of the other contenders for Opposition candidate. He
will certainly ensure minority votes are locked in for the Opposition even
before the campaign kicks off officially. But with only four weeks of
campaigning left for the Opposition, concerns are being raised about

whether the single-issue campaign will have the time necessary to resurrect
Ranil Wickremesinghes image with the electorate and portray him as a
credible challenger to President Mahinda Rajapaksa.
A third player?
On the other hand, should the UNP decide to run alone, it may find its
fortunes diminished by the likelihood of a third candidate in the ring, put
forward by Sobitha Thero, the JHU and other social movements determined
to bring about constitutional changes. The main Opposition party may also
find itself in the throes of a crisis should it go it alone, having barely
prevented Opposition stalwart Mangala Samaraweera from crossing over to
the Government by vowing to revisit the common Opposition option. A third
candidate would also create headaches for the Rajapaksa campaign which
must also fear the prospect of a split vote between not two, but three major
candidates that could deprive the President from claiming 50% of the votes
and force the election into a second count.
Announcement of the snap election will raise this charged situation to fever
pitch. Horse trading will begin in earnest, even as the Government mounts
last-ditch attempts to retain disgruntled members from casting their lot
with the Opposition.
Realistically, the odds still heavily favour the incumbent in the January poll.
But the drama has only barely begun. History is about to be made in this
election, with President Rajapaksas decision to throw his hat in the ring for
the third time. Post-election, history will also be altered and re-written.
Victories will be sweet and punishments cruel.
President Rajapaksa is gambling it all on this election, including his two
remaining years in office. It is not a battle his regime is willing to lose.
Opposition forces must take cognizance of this fact. This time, defeat could
mean the end of many things.
Darker shadows
Lurking in the background of this riotous political atmosphere in the run-up
to the January snap election are long dark shadows of change. The issues
and personalities in play have turned the election to choose the next Sri
Lankan President into a poll of polls of sorts.
If the Oppositions star is on the ascent, the January poll could well be the
last presidential election under the terms of the 1978 Constitution that
established the all powerful executive presidency. If his astrologers are

proved correct on the other hand, and President Rajapaksa is re-elected to

serve irrespective of victory margins, the country is poised to face more farreaching changes. A third Rajapaksa term could alter the very nature of the
Sri Lankan state; what is left of democratic institutions may be further
eroded, an all powerful military establishment further entrenched and the
last dregs of Opposition decimated.
If the Opposition wants the concept of democratic opposition to live on and
thrive, it will have to begin to treat this battle with the seriousness it
deserves.
There is little doubt that President Rajapaksa, if re-elected, will serve out
the two remaining years of his second term which ends in 2016 before
commencing his third six-year term. Voters therefore will face a crucial test
on polling day in early January. As they weigh their options between
changing and keeping the status quo, one question will persist. If the
system is to continue and personalities remain unaltered, will they still
recognise their country in the year 2022?
Posted by Thavam