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Sustainable Transport and

Sustainable Development:
Framing Policy, Measuring
Progress
Michael Replogle
Presentation at
Asian Development Bank
January 31, 2014

2008 Climate Works

Millenium Development Goals


Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
Achieve Universal primary education
Promote gender equality and empower women
Reduce Child Mortality

Transport
Improve Maternal Health
Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria and other dieseases
Ensure Environmental Sustainability
Develop a Global Partnership for Development

Still Rising
Traffic deaths
Traffic related air pollution
Inequality of access
Non-renewable fossil fuel use
Transport GHG emissions
Lock-in of high carbon,
unsustainable transport and
urban development patterns
Motor vehicle dependence
Private motor vehicle trip
share
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Also Rising
National urban transport laws,
policies, funding programs
Effective motor vehicle emission
& fuel economy standards
Efforts to cut fossil fuel subsidies
High quality Bus Rapid Transit
Public bike programs
Parking reforms
Green freight initiatives
Awareness that sustainable
transport is vital enabler of
sustainable development
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Integrated
Transport
System
Management

Supply side

Demand side
HOV
lanes

New
highways
Adding
lanes
New railway
lines
Toll roads

Smart
Growth
Cordon
tolls

HOT
lanes

Traffic
calming
Public transport
priority

Parking
control
Congestion
charges
Information
systems
Taxation
policy
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The Paradigm Shift Continues


from Predict and Provide to.

Solutions for
Sustainable
Transport

Avoid

Avoid the need


to travel

Shift

Shift to more
efficient
transport
modes

Improve

Improve fuel
and vehicle
technologies
and transport
network
management

SLoCaT Partnership and the UN Sustainable


Transport Action Network

Key Processes on
Sustainable Transport and
Sustainable Development

Economic and Social


Commission

UN General
Assembly

Belgium and Guyana (lead


reform discussion ECOSOC)

High Level Poli cal Forum on


Sustainable Development
(Successor to CSD, Brazil and Italy
lead development of HLPF format)

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2
3
4

UN-Secretary General
led:

High Level Group on Sustainable Transport

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Friends of Sustainable Transport
High Level Panel of Eminent Persons on
Post-2015 Development Agenda
Open Working Group on Sustainable
Development Goals

High Level Panel of Eminent


Persons on Post 2015
Development Agenda

(Led by UK, Indonesia and Liberia)

UN- Task Team on Post 2015


Development Agenda

Country (Party)
led:

Open Working
Group on
Sustainable
Development
Goals (SDGS)

Intergovernmental
commi ee for
financing of
sustainable
development

(Hungary and
Kenya led)

(Norway and
Kazakhstan led)

(internal UN-team)

Friends on Sustainable Transport


High Level Group on
Sustainable Transport (HLG-ST)

Technical Working Group


(TWG) on Sustainable
Transport
(supports HLG-ST)

(Netherlands , Kenya and Thai led)

Regional EST Forums


(Africa, Asia, Europe and La n America)
UNCRD or WHO led in coopera on with
Regional Commissions

Na onal and City Transport Policies


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Series of SLoCaT Submissions to Open Working Group on


Sustainable Development Goals and Results Framework
Universal Access to Safe, Clean and Affordable Energy
and Transport for All

Target

Target

Target

Secure universal access by sustainable transport by 2030 for rural and


urban populations (Indicators: mean daily travel time to reach
employment, education, healthcare, community services less than 90
minutes and share of income spent on transport by poor under 20%;
double public transport, walking, and cycling trips by 2030)

Access
Economic

Traffic related deaths and serious injuries are cut in half by 2030

Social

Cut PM10 from transport 80% by 2030 and achieve universal sulfur of 50
PPM or less by 2030. Reduce GHG emissions from transport by 1.6-2.5
GT by 2020 globally and cut black carbon by 60% by 2030

Environmental
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Voluntary Commitment by MDBs


Shift $175 billion of MDB transport funding over next
decade towards more sustainable transport
Road
safety
Fuel
economy
and fuel
standards

Public
transport
Sustainable
transport

Non-

500 Staff to
provide
knowledge
& expertise

Green
freight

motorized
transport
Urban
transport

Assistance
to 150
Countries
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MDB Sustainable Transport Voluntary Commitment


Asian Development Bank
African Development
Bank
Latin American
Development Bank
European Bank for
Reconstruction and
Development
European Investment
Bank
Islamic Development
Bank
World Bank

Over the coming decade we


expect to provide more than $175
billion of loans and grants for transport
in developing countries. These
investments will help to develop more
sustainable transport systems

MDB Funding Shift Towards More Sustainable Transport?


Asian Development Bank Transport Funding

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MDB Sustainable Transport Voluntary Commitment


Asian Development Bank
African Development
Bank
Latin American
Development Bank
European Bank for
Reconstruction and
Development
European Investment
Bank
Islamic Development
Bank
World Bank

Over the coming decade we


expect to provide more than $175
billion of loans and grants for transport
in developing countries. These
investments will help to develop more
sustainable transport systems
We are committed to
introducing annual reporting on our
sustainable transport related lending
and to developing common
arrangements for this purpose.
We have initiated work on definitions,
setting targets and choosing indicators
for sustainable transport/mobility and
assistance provided to support
sustainable transport/mobility, with a
view to finalizing these within 2012.
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Initial reporting
on Rio+20
Voluntary
Commitments

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Sustainable Transport
Appraisal Rating (STAR)

Appraisal Tool for MDB Commitment Should Be:


Objective-driven
Impact-based
Qualitative & Quantitative
Unified

Transparent
Suited for Ex-Ante Evaluation

Adapted from: Adrien Veron-Okamoto, Rating Project


Sustainability, ADB 2012 Transport Forum
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STAR Application
Context
uptake by member
developing
countries

Setting

Situation
analysis

management
performance
evaluation

Assess
Performance

Performance
Evaluation

Adapted from: Adrien VeronOkamoto, Rating Project


Sustainability, ADB 2012
Transport Forum

country plans

Objective

Align

Investment
Planning
Maximize

ST
Objectives
Performance
indicators

Evaluate
Results
Monitor

Implementation

Optimize

portfolio
analysis

Project Concept

Appraise

Project Approval

annual
progress
evaluation

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Considerations
MDBs vary in approach to
sustainability appraisal
MDB reporting on GHG impacts
of transport
Appraising sustainable
transport in country plans influence requests of member
developing countries
Complementing STAR with
global sustainable transport
results framework, analysis &
monitoring
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Credit: Yang JIANG, Daizong LIU, Suping CHEN, Assessment Tools for China LowCarbonCity Projects From the CSTCs Perspective, 2011

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Sustainable Transport Scenario Study `

Evaluate & report on potential impacts of sustainable


transport on sustainable development
Input to
High Level Panel on Sustainable Transport
post-2015 UN development agenda
UNFCCC climate policy

Collaboration of ITDP, IEA, UC Davis, MDBs, EMBARQ, ICCT, other key


SLoCaT stakeholders

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Research Questions

What might a much more transit/NMT oriented urban


future look like in terms of mode share and
infrastructure requirements?
What are the implications for passenger travel in
2030 and 2050?
What possible impacts would such a future have on
energy use, CO2/GHG, pollutant emissions, safety,
traffic congestion?
What might the impacts be in terms of costs and
benefits (direct costs, external costs, cost savings)
What might be the mobility impacts across
demographic/socio-economic group?
Develop a policy basis and narrative for achieving this
alternative future
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Approach

Analysis builds up from data on current travel


patterns in different parts of the world, projections
of where these may go out to 2050, using IEA
Mobility Model
World broken into 30+ countries and regions
Urban mobility modules being developed
More modes added
Modal shift potential based more on potential to
increase capacity of transit/NMT systems to
allow fewer cars

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Features of new scenario

High Shift Scenario:


Build up bus and rail systems so that most major
cities have large capacity systems
Encourage walking and cycling for short trips
Major push for e-bikes in lieu of motor cycles (and
cars)
Cut car travel in cities by half
This is compared to a Base Case that aligns with the
IEA 4 degree scenario
Some fuel economy improvement
No shift away from car growth
Other modes static
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Our starting point :


MoMo result from IEA ETP 2012
Modal shift plays an important role in 2 degree scenario

Passenger kilometres (trillions)

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50
40

Pass Rail

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Buses

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Air

10

LDV
2-3W

2010

2050
4DS

OECD

2050
2DS

2010

2050
4DS

2050
2DS

Non-OECD
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The new High Shift Scenario


Doubling of transit and NMT urban travel and about a
halving of LDV travel in 2050 v. Baseline

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HS Scenario travel per capita


Total travel in non-OECD preserved, travel cuts in
OECD

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Assumptions and metrics for BRT


build out
Example for a City with a 100km system

Non-OECD

OECD

Implied City
Population
Time of day
3,436,426 peak
off peak
total all day
8,000,000 peak
off peak
total all day

Assumed
average trip
Total daily pkmslength, kms Total trips per day

Avg percapita trips


per day

Pct of population riding


each day (assumes
one round trip per rider)

4,320,000
1,440,000
5,760,000

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6

720,000
240,000
960,000

0.21
0.07
0.28

10%
3%
14%

2,160,000
720,000
2,880,000

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6

360,000
120,000
480,000

0.05
0.02
0.06

2%
1%
3%

Summary of results for built out global BRT system in 2050

Population in
Total population Total urban pop BRT cities
(billions)
(billions)
(billions)

Non-OECD
OECD
World

8.1
1.4
9.5

5.0
1.2
6.3

total system
length
(thousand Total BRT Travel per
kms)
day (mil pkm/day)

2.5
0.6
3.1

67.9
8.5
76.3

3,910
244
4,153

Average percapita Pkm Total BRT Travel per


per day
year (bil pkm/year)

1.6
0.4
1.3

1,427
89
1,516

Passenger travel
per km of system
length (mil
pkm/km/year)

21.0
10.5
19.9

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Total urban bus and rail passenger-kms


travelled (PKT) by region and scenario

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High shift case: total lane/track kms,


2010 and 2050

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Infrastructure utilization: PKM per


lane-km

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Walking and cycling trip


assumptions
Trips per capita increase in High Shift case

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E-bikes a revolution?
Development of projection e-bike ownership per capita

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Walking and cycling PKT

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Trips per Capita

Used as a calibration too for now 4-5 trips per day


assumed around the world, this may change

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Reporting levels
Countries/regions in MoMo
OECD
North
America
Euope

OECD
Pacific
Africa /
Middle
East
Asia

Americas

Reporting level for this study

USA
Canada
Mexico

USA/Canada
Mexico

OECD Europe
Other EU/non-OECD
Eastern Europe
Former Soviet Union (CEE) Europe
Japan
S Korea
Austrailia/NZ
South Africa
Middle East/North Africa
Other Africa

OECD Europe w/other EU


Eastern Europe/FSU Europe

OECD Pacific

Africa/Middle East

China
India
ASEAN
Russia
Asian Transition Economies (ATE)
Other Developing Asia (ODA)
Brazil
Chile
Other Latin America/Caribbean

China
India
Russia
Other Asia (ASEAN/ODA/ATE)

Brazil
Other LAC

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Results at full reporting detail


Passenger kilometers of travel, High Shift case

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CO2 emissions ~ 50% reduction (4.9


to 2.5 gt in 2050)

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Potential $50 Trillion Cost Savings from Sustainable Transport

Global public/private spending through 2050

Source: Lew Fulton, IEA MoMo Analysis

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Efforts Needed to Enhance Appraisal Tools


Especially to evaluate
distribution of benefits
and burdens of transport

26%
Use of Roadspace in Key
Corridors, Chennai, India

64%

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Demographic/Economic/Equity Module Data

Bogota: for those with incomes below USD 20,000, public transport
plays the dominant role in providing mobility.
We need to document such distributions across income, gender and
age groups and develop projection systems to understand how well
different future transport/mode configurations will likely serve
different parts of the population.
Trips per day per capita

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Progress on Transport NAMAs

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Interactions with UNFCCC


NAMA MRV Guidance
Mitigation potential of
transportation sector
Organize Transport Day at
UNFCCC COPs

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Transport CO2 Analysis Needed at


Multiple Analysis Scales

Project &
Portfolio
Need to take
care to evaluate
system-wide
impacts, induced
demand

Plan &
Region
Optimal scale to
consider system
impacts for
metropolitan
plans/programs

Nation
Often best for
evaluating large
networks and
system policies
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Especially in Developing World, Many Projects


Lack Data, Resources to Estimate These
Factors
Low availability of regional travel models and data
Low institutional capacity
High-fidelity CDM style evaluation not worth the cost
Time and budget pressures in project appraisal

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Introduction to TEEMP: what and why


TEEMP Transport Emissions
Evaluation Model for Projects
Excel-based, free-of-charge, open
source models

Designed to facilitate consideration


of options and potential impacts
Most appropriate for ex-ante
evaluation in places with poor data
Developed collaboratively by Clean
Air Asia and ITDP with support from
ADB, GEF, others
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TEEMP: Separate Tools for Different


Project Types
1. Bike sharing
2. Bikeways
3. Pedestrian Facility Improvement

4. BRT
5. LRT/MRT
6. Roads Projects Expressways, Rural Roads and Urban
Roads
7. Railway
8. City Sketch Analysis and Other Strategies - Commuter
Strategies, Pricing Strategies, Eco-Driving , PAYD
Insurance
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Run through of TEEMP: baseline scenario


Number of trips

Emissions from
the motorized
vehicles within the
scope of the
analysis are
quantified under
the baseline
scenario

Activity

Average Trip Lengths


Average Speeds
Mode shares (%)

Structure

Average occupancies
Vehicle fuel split
Vehicle emission standards split

Intensity
Fuel

Fuel Efficiencies of vehicles


Emission Factors

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Run through of TEEMP: project scenario


(1)
Number of trips

Emissions from the


motorized vehicles
within the scope of
the analysis are also
quantified under the
project scenario,
accounting for
changes in ASIF
parameters

Activity

Average Trip Lengths


Average Speeds
Mode shares (%)

Structure

Average occupancies
Vehicle fuel split
Vehicle emission standards split

Intensity
Fuel

Fuel Efficiencies of vehicles


Emission Factors

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TEEMP BRT 2012


Updated version of
TEEMP BRT model
for 2012:
Easier to use menu

and shortcuts
Integration of peerreviewed BRT
Scorecard
Inclusion of more
co-benefits in
Results page

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Conclusions
Macro trends still in the wrong direction
Promising developments portend a
turning point
Results framework for sustainable
development impacts of sustainable
transport needed if transport is to gain
under SDGs
Need to strengthen equity analysis for
sustainable transport
Tools are available at project and global
level

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With the right collaboration, this can be the


turning point
Thank you

Michael Replogle
Institute for Transportation &
Development Policy

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