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Assignment

The Narrowing Male-Female Unemployment Differential

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1. INTRODUCTION

4. GENERAL DISCUSSION

5. CONCLUTION

`

19

1. Introduction

The Narrowing Male-Female Unemployment Differential

Unemployment rates of developed and developing countries pose a complicated puzzle. Most

developed countries have higher unemployment rates than developing countries.

Unemployment (or joblessness) occurs when people are without work and actively seeking

work. The unemployment rate is a measure of the prevalence of unemployment and it is calculated as a

percentage by dividing the number of unemployed individuals by all individuals currently in thelabor

force. During periods of recession, an economy usually experiences a relatively high unemployment

rate. According to International Labour Organization report, more than 197 million people globally are

out of work or 6% of the world's workforce were without a job in 2012.

As gender roles have followed the formation of agricultural and then industrial societies, newly

developed professions and fields of occupation have been frequently inflected by gender. Some

examples of the ways in which gender affects a field include:

Discrimination within a field, including wage, management, and prestige hierarchies;

Expectation that mothers, rather than fathers, should be the primary childcare providers.

Note that these gender restrictions may not be universal in time and place, and that they operate to

restrict both men and women. However, in practice, norms and laws have historically restricted

women's access to particular occupations; civil rights laws and cases have thus primarily focused on

equal access to and participation by woman in the workforce. These barriers may also be manifested in

hidden bias and by means of many micro inequities.

Women in the workforce earning wages or a salary are part of a modern phenomenon, one that

developed at the same time as the growth of paid employment for men; yet women have been

challenged by inequality in the workforce. Until modern times, legal and cultural practices, combined

with the inertia of longstanding religious and educational conventions, restricted women's entry and

3

participation in the workforce. Economic dependency upon men, and consequently the poor socioeconomic status of women, have had the same impact, particularly as occupations have become

professionalized over the 19th and 20th centuries.

The main objective of the study is to, identify how the unemployment rate of men willaffect the

unemployment rate of female workers.

In addition, by summarizing the data using descriptive statistics methods and presenting the main

features graphically, we can also compare how each variable affects the other.

2. PRSENTATION OF INFORMATION

The data given is a sample taken from a labour force survey conducted by a research company in Sri

Lanka. The survey was carried out as a household survey and all the members of a randomly selected

household, in the working age population (i.e. age 15) were

considered in the survey.

During the 1975-2010 period the unemployment rate for women

was higher than the rate for men in every year but one. In recent

years, however, a dramatic and unanticipated narrowing of the

male-female unemployment rate differential has occurred. In

2007 and 2008 the female rate was less than the male rate. And

since 2009 the female rate has exceeded the male rate by

historically small amount. The relatively high female

unemployment rate has being taken as evidence of the

disadvantages women face in the job market, or of their

relatively weak attachment to the labour force. Since the

narrowing of the male-female rate differential could indicate a

change in these underlying factors, a new examination of malefemale unemployment differential seems appropriate.

Year

Male UE Female UE

1975

15.1

15.7

1976

12.8

14.4

1977

12.8

13.6

1978

12.8

13.3

1979

15.3

16

1980

14.2

14.9

1981

13.8

14.8

1982

14.1

14.7

1983

16.8

16.8

1984

15.2

15.9

1985

15.4

15.9

1986

16.4

17.2

1987

15.2

16.2

1988

15.2

16.5

1989

14.6

16.2

1990

14

15.5

1991

13.2

14.8

1992

13.1

15.2

1993

12.9

14.8

1994

12.8

14.7

1995

14.4

15.9

1996

15.3

16.9

1997

15

16.6

1998

14.2

16

1999

14.9

16.7

2000

17.9

19.3

2001

17.1

18.6

2002

16.3

18.2

2003

15.3

17.2

2004

15.1

16.8

2005

16.9

17.4

2006

17.4

17.9

2007

19.9

19.4

2008

19.9

19.2

2009

17.4

17.6

2010

17

17.4

5

3. METHODOLOGY

Statistics is a field of mathematics that pertains to data analysis. Statistical methods and equations can

be applied to a data set in order to analyze and interpret results, explain variations in the data, or predict

future data. A few examples of statistical information we can calculate are:

Span of values over which your data set occurs (range), and

Midpoint between the lowest and highest value of the set (median)

Mean

The mean, is obtained by dividing the sum of observed values by the number of observations, n.

Although data points fall above, below, or on the mean, it can be considered a good estimate for

predicting subsequent data points. The formula for the mean is given below as equation,

Median

The median is the middle value of a set of data containing an odd number of values, or the average of

the two middle values of a set of data with an even number of values. The median is especially helpful

when separating data into two equal sized bins.

Standard Deviation

The standard deviation gives an idea of how close the entire set of data is to the average value. Data

sets with a small standard deviation have tightly grouped, precise data. Data sets with large standard

deviations have data spread out over a wide range of values.

Variance

In probability theory and statistics, the variance is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out.

It is one of several descriptors of a probability distribution, describing how far the numbers lie from

the mean (expected value).

Skewness

Skewness is the degree of departure from symmetry of a

distribution. A positively skewed distribution has a "tail" which is

pulled in the positive direction. A negatively skewed distribution

has a "tail" which is pulled in the negative direction.

Since we have a large sample, it appropriate to use Fisher-Pearson statistics to calculate Skewness.

Kurtosis

Kurtosis is the degree of peakedness of a distribution.

A pure leptokurtic distribution has a higher peak than the

normal distribution and has heavier tails.

A pure platykurtic distribution has a lower peak than a

normal distribution and lighter tails.

Most departures from normality display combinations of both skewness and kurtosis different from a

normal distribution.

Correlation

When two sets of data are strongly linked together we say they have a High Correlation.

Correlation is Negative when one value decreases as the other increases

Like this:

0 is no correlation (the values don't seem linked at all)

-1 is a perfect negative correlation

The value shows how good the correlation is (not how steep the line is), and if it is positive or

negative.

A time series is simply a series of data through time. The data can be of different types: continuous

(e.g. temperature), binary (e.g.presence-absence of a species) or nominal (e.g. three different rock types

through a section). The data are usually univariate, but methods have also been devised for multivariate

time series analysis. Many methods require that the data are evenly spaced along the time line, and

unevenly spaced data will then have to be interpolated before analysis. In principle, there is nothing

special about a time series from a mathematical point of view it is simply a function of a single

variable (time). But in practice, time series analysis involves a particular set of problems and methods,

and time series analysis is therefore a distinct field within statistics and engineering. Typical questions

asked in time series analysis are:

Are there periodicities in the data, maybe controlled by daily or annual cycles?

Is there a trend?

Are two time series (e.g. global temperature and CO levels) correlated? If so, is there a delay

between the two?

A variety of methods have been invented to investigate such problems. Although I will endeavor to

make things simple, it cannot be denied that time series analysis is a rather complicated and technical

field, with many pitfalls and subtleties. The case studies will demonstrate some of these issues.

Regression

Linear regression uses one independent variable to explain and/or predict the outcome of Y.

The general form of linear regression is:

Linear Regression: Y = m + bX

Where:

Y= the variable that we are trying to predict

X= the variable that we are using to predict Y

b= the intercept

m= the slope

Regression takes a group of random variables, thought to be predicting Y, and tries to find a

mathematical relationship between them. This relationship is typically in the form of a straight line

(linear regression) that best approximates all the individual data points. Regression is often used to

determine how much specific factors such as the price of a commodity, interest rates, particular

industries or sectors influence the price movement of an asset.

When we choose to analyze your data using linear regression, part of the process involves checking to

make sure that the data you want to analyze can actually be analyzed using linear regression. We need

to do this because it is only appropriate to use linear regression if our data "passes" six assumptions that

are required for linear regression to give a valid result.

Assumption #1: Two variables should be measured at the interval or ratio level (i.e., they

are continuous). Examples of variables that meet this criterion include revision time (measured

in hours), intelligence (measured using IQ score), exam performance (measured from 0 to 100),

weight (measured in kg), and so forth.

Assumption #2: There needs to be a linear relationship between the two variables. Whilst there

are a number of ways to check whether a linear relationship exists between the two

variables.Scatterplot can plot the dependent variable against the independent variable, and then

visually inspect the scatterplot to check for linearity. Scatterplot may look something like one of

the following:

Assumption #3: There should be no significant outliers. Outliers are simply single data points

within data that do not follow the usual pattern. The following scatterplots highlight the

potential impact of outliers:

The problem with outliers is that they can have a negative effect on the regression equation that

is used to predict the value of the dependent (outcome) variable based on the independent

(predictor) variable. This will reduce the predictive accuracy of r results.

10

Assumption #4: Should have independence of observations, which you can easily check using

the Durbin-Watson statistic.

Assumption #5: Data needs to show homoscedasticity, which is where the variances along the

line of best fit remain similar as you move along the line.

Assumption #6: Finally, we need to check that the residuals (errors) of two variables

are approximately normally distributed.

11

Calculation of summary statistics for the Male unemployment data set as follows,

(

Above equation is more appropriate for a small data set where number of observations (n) 10, but our

sample size is 36 Fisher-Pearson equation would be more meaningful.

)(

(

(

)

)

(

(

)

(

)(

(

)(

(

)(

)

)

)

)

12

Calculation of summary statistics for the Female unemployment data set as follows,

Female unemployment data set is bi-modal with values 14.8 and 15.9, therefore we calculate Skewness

for both.

(

)(

)

)

)(

)

(

)

(

(

(

)(

(

)(

(

)

)

)

13

Given below is the descriptive statistics computed for the data set,

Descriptive Statistics

N

Minimum Maximum

Statistic

Male

Unemployment

Femal

Unemployment

Statistic

Statistic

Mean

Std.

Variance

Deviation

Statistic

Statistic

Skewness

Kurtosis

Error

Std.

Error

36

12.80

19.90 15.2694

1.85547

3.443

.734

.393

.380

.768

36

13.30

19.40 16.3389

1.52994

2.341

.209

.393

-.330

.768

Table 1

higher

for the female workers.

positive

kurtosis and indicates that its

leptokurtic distribution has a higher

peak than the normal distribution

and has heavier tails.

Female unemployment has a negative kurtosis and indicates that its pure platykurtic distribution

has a lower peak than a normal distribution and lighter tails.

From the Box & whiskers plot we can see that Female unemployment is symmetrically

distributed while male unemployment is skewed.

In both distributions median is less than the mean, indicating they are positively skewed.

14

Figure 1

Scatter plot (Figure 1) shows how unemployment rate for male and female changes over the time

period and it also shows that both rates move similarly, indicating positive correlations.

Validating assumptions

Assumption #1: Both data sets are percentage values and thus measured at ratio level.

Assumption #2:Above scatter plot positively correlated, thus proving there exist a linear relationship

between two variables.

Assumption #3:No significant outliers are to found by examining the scatter plot (Figure 1)

Assumption #4:Independence of observation is satisfied since the sampling of one person does not

affect the outcome of the second person, thus to confirm Durbin-Watson (0.361) is not in between the

upper or lower margin.

15

assumption that the variability of data around

the regression line be constant for all values of

X. In other words, error must be independent

of X. Generally, this assumption may be

tested by plotting the X or Y values against

the raw residuals for Y.

Notice how there is no 'fanning' pattern to the

data, implying homoscedasticity

Figure 2

Assumption #6:Normality of Error, this assumption is often tested by simply plotting the Standardized

Residuals (each residual divided by its standard error) on a histogram with a superimposed normal

distribution.

Figure 3

From the histogram and the normal p-p plot we can see that the residuals follow a normal distribution

and hence we can conclude that the data set meets all the six assumptions that was examined and a

regression analysis can be carried out on the data set.

16

Xsum - The sum of all the values in the x column (Male UE).

Ysum - The sum of all the values in the y column (Female UE).

XYsum - The sum of the products of the xn and yn that are recorded at the same time (vertical on this

chart).

X2sum - The total of each value in the x column squared and then added together.

Y2sum - The total of each value in the y column squared and then added together.

N - The total number of elements (or trials in your experiment).

The best form for our line is slope-intercept form, which looks like y = mx + b. Therefore, it is only

necessary to compute m and b to determine the best fit line. Those values can be computed by the

following equations:

After plugging in the values that we found, we get: m = 0.767 and b = 4.632.

Since we have a large data set, SPSS was used to analyze and fit the regression line to the data set.

Table 2

R

R Square

a

.930

.865

Model Summary

Adjusted R Square

.861

.57130

.361

This table provides the R and R2 value. The R value is 0.930, which represents the simple correlation. It

indicates a high degree of correlation. The R2 value indicates how much of the dependent variable,

"female unemployment", can be explained by the independent variable, "male unemployment". In this

case, 86.5% can be explained, which is very large.

17

Table 3

Model

1

Regression

Residual

Total

ANOVA

Sum of Squares

70.828

11.097

81.926

df

Mean Square

F

Sig.

1

70.828 217.010 .000b

34

.326

35

Next we look table is the ANOVA table. This table indicates that the regression model predicts the

outcome variable significantly well. We say this because Sig. column value for regression is 0.00, this

indicates the statistical significance of the regression model that was applied. Here, p < 0.0005, which

is less than 0.05, and indicates that, overall, the model applied can statistically significantly predict the

outcome variable.

Table 4

Coefficients

Unstandardized Coefficients

Model

B

1

(Constant)

Male

Unemployment

4.632

.767

Std. Error

.800

.052

Standardized

Coefficients

Sig.

Beta

.930

5.787

14.731

.000

.000

The table above, Coefficients, provides us with information on each predictor variable. This gives us

the information we need to predict female-unemployment from male-unemployment. We can see that

both the constant and male-unemployment contribute significantly to the model (by looking at

the Sig. column). By looking at the B column under the Unstandardized Coefficients column, we can present

the regression equation as:

18

25

y = 0.1094x + 14.316

R = 0.5672

15

y = 0.1103x + 13.229

R = 0.3923

10

Male

Female

Year

Linear (Male )

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

1985

1984

1983

1982

1981

1980

1979

1978

1977

1976

0

1975

Unemployment

20

Linear (Female)

A linear trend line is a best-fit straight line that is used with simple linear data sets. Your data is linear if the pattern in its data points

resembles a line. A linear trend line usually shows that something is increasing or decreasing at a steady rate.

In the data set, a linear trend line clearly shows that both male and female unemployment moves consistently over years, we can

see that the R-squared (fraction of variance explained by a model) value is not significant, which is not a good fit of the line to the

data.

This might have occurred because we have used annual data, any seasonal and cyclical effects might be masked due to this, a better

line of fit might have being possible with monthly or quarterly data.

Further time series modeling is not possible or rather we could say not meaningful as seasonal decomposition cannot be carried out

on annual data, we say a seasonal component is included because of R-squared is not significant.

19

5. GENERAL DISCUSSION

From our results we can conclude the following,

According to our data set we can see that year by year the gap between male-female unemployment

declines and they move in a similar pattern. And can be used to predict one another.

Our preferred explanations focus on the restrictions on the set ofavailable jobs that are acceptable to

women, mainly due to thepresence of young children that create frictions to their employment.

When mothers return to work after childbirth, they have to searchthe set of available vacancies, which

takes time and effort. But manyfirms have increased workplace assistance that helps mothers ofyoung

children return to the previous firm in typical work, and theseoffers are immediately apparent without

the need for job search. Soreturning mothers, on average, now face fewer frictions in findingwork after

childbirth. There is also evidence that new jobs taken bywomen are increasingly likely to continue into

a second year, whichwould also lower the inflow rate into unemployment. These pieces ofevidence

may be consistent with a lowering of the natural rate offemale unemployment, although of course that

is only oneinterpretation.

In order to get a better view how the two variables behave we can do a further analysis by obtaining

monthly or quarterly data, and considering other factors that affect employment, such as education

level, health, inflation.

20

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