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Quantitative Equity Report | Release Date: 13 November 2014 | Reporting Currency: EUR | Trading Currency: EUR

Abengoa SA Class B ABG.P


Last Close

Quantitative Fair Value Estimate

Market Cap (Mil)

Sector

Industry

2.36

2.82

1,985.2

p Industrials

Engineering & Construction

Abengoa SA is engineering & clean Technology Company,


engaged in applying e solutions for development in the
infrastructure, environment & energy sectors. It operates in
Engineering & construction, Concession-type infrastructures &
Industrial production.
Quantitative Scores

Country of Domicile

Price Versus Quantitative Fair Value


2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

24

Sales/Share
Forecast Range
Forcasted Price
Dividend
Split

18

Momentum:

Standard Deviation:

30

Scores
All Rel Sector Rel Country

Quantitative Moat
None
Valuation
Undervalued
Quantitative Uncertainty Very High
Financial Health
Moderate

12
65
56
11

13
68
55
6

ESP Spain

16
76
42
5

Quantitative Fair Value Estimate


12

1.47

Total Return

52-Wk

4.73

6
ABG.P
p

ESP

Undervalued

Fairly Valued

Overvalued

Valuation

Sector
Median

Country
Median

0.89
17.9
14.5
10.3
17.2
1.88
1.6
0.8

0.92
17.7
13.4
10.5
16.5
2.24
1.4
1.1

Current 5-Yr Avg

Sector
Median

Country
Median

10.6
4.5
438.7

8.9
2.3
266.5

Current 5-Yr Avg

Price/Quant Fair Value


Price/Earnings
Forward P/E
Price/Cash Flow
Price/Free Cash Flow
Dividend Yield %
Price/Book
Price/Sales

0.84
16.5
8.1
43.3
-1.1

0.7
0.3

Profitability

Return on Equity %
Return on Assets %
Revenue/Employee (K)

7.9
0.5
274.4

14.2
1.2

Score
100

Quantitative Moat

80
60
40
20
0
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Financial Health
Current 5-Yr Avg

Distance to Default
Solvency Score
Assets/Equity
Long-Term Debt/Equity

2014

Sector
Median

Country
Median

0.6
494.2
1.8
0.2

0.6
799.5
2.6
0.4

0.2
799.5
16.0
3.6

13.4
3.2

1-Year

3-Year

5-Year

10-Year

16.6
50.8
300.0

-23.0
32.9

14.8
13.1
-26.9

-23.7

18.8
21.8
-6.5

12.2

16.2
21.3
4.4

8.1

Growth Per Share


Revenue %
Operating Income %
Earnings %
Dividends %
Book Value %
Stock Total Return %

-9.0
-24.4

8.6
9.9

10.9
0.2

13.6
0.2

16.5
0.3

Total Return %
+/ Market (Morningstar World
Index)
Dividend Yield %
Price/Earnings
Price/Revenue
Undervalued
Fairly Valued
Overvalued

Monthly Volume (Thousand Shares)


Liquidity: High

35,979

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

TTM

4,147
33.2

5,566
34.2

7,089
27.4

7,783
9.8

7,356
-5.5

7,360
0.1

Financials (Fiscal Year in Mil)


Revenue
% Change

431
45.5
203

622
44.3
263

844
35.8
274

775
-8.2
125

794
2.5
101

1,027
29.3
128

Operating Income
% Change
Net Income

803
-2,022
-1,219
-29.4

769
-2,094
-1,325
-23.8

1,353
-2,913
-1,560
-22.0

443
-3,925
-3,482
-44.7

741
-1,884
-1,144
-15.5

49
-2,062
-2,013
-27.3

Operating Cash Flow


Capital Spending
Free Cash Flow
% Sales

0.38
21.3

0.46
21.8

0.48
3.9

0.22
-53.8
-6.24

0.16
-27.3
-1.86

0.14
-10.4
-2.63

EPS
% Change
Free Cash Flow/Share

452,350

538,065

538,063

2.08
825,563

1.60
839,770

1.84
839,770

21.6
1.5
4.1
0.37
10.6

14.8
1.4
3.7
0.38
10.4

15.3
1.4
3.6
0.40
10.9

9.0
0.6
1.6
0.40
19.2

8.5
0.5
1.4
0.35
16.0

4.7
0.5
1.8
0.31
17.2

Profitability
Return on Equity %
Return on Assets %
Net Margin %
Asset Turnover
Financial Leverage

26.3
10.4

32.6
11.2
4,405

27.0
11.9
4,342

32.5
10.0
4,328

39.5
10.8
4,708

42.4
14.0
11,371

Gross Margin %
Operating Margin %
Long-Term Debt

1,171
1.7

1,630
3.2

1,726
4.5

1,071
5.3

1,321
5.3

2,725
0.7

Quarterly Revenue & EPS


Revenue (Mil)
Mar
Jun
2014
1,584.0 1,821.5
2013
1,850.0 1,552.3
2012
1,764.1 1,927.0
2011
1,656.3 1,486.3
Earnings Per Share
2014
0.04
0.04
2013
0.17
-0.05
2012
0.16
0.03
2011
0.12
0.10

Dividends/Share
Book Value/Share
Shares Outstanding (K)

Total Equity
Fixed Asset Turns

Revenue Growth Year On Year %


Sep
1,831.5
1,830.7
1,921.0
1,641.5
0.04
0.01
0.01
0.24

Dec

2,123.5
2,171.2
2,305.1

0.02
0.00
0.06

Total

7,356.5
7,783.3
7,089.2

0.16
0.22
0.48

17.3

17.0
4.9

0.0
-4.7

-5.8

-2.2
-14.4

-19.4
2012

2013

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2014