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2014 NEW ZEALAND GENERAL ELECTION

ANALYSIS OF RESULTS BY ELECTORATE,

AREA AND REGION

DECEMBER 2014

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

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CONTENTS
CONTENTS ....................................................................................................................................................... 2
INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................... 3
2014 OVERALL ELECTION RESULTS ............................................................................................................ 4
OVERALL ELECTION RESULTS CHANGES 2011 TO 2014 .......................................................................... 5
2014 PARTY VOTE BY REGION ...................................................................................................................... 6
2014 PARTY VOTE BY AREA .......................................................................................................................... 7
PARTY VOTE CHANGE 2011 2014 BY REGION ......................................................................................... 8
PARTY VOTE CHANGE 2011 2014 BY AREA .............................................................................................. 8
NATIONAL 2014 PARTY VOTE ........................................................................................................................ 9
NATIONAL 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ............................................................................................ 10
NATIONAL 2014 ELECTORATE VOTE .......................................................................................................... 11
NATIONAL 2014 ELECTORATE VOTE PERCENTAGE ................................................................................ 12
NATIONAL PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14 ............................................................................................. 13
NATIONAL PARTY VOTE RELATIVE CHANGE 11 TO 14 ........................................................................... 14
NATIONAL ELECTORATE VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14 ................................................................................. 15
NATIONAL ELECTORATE VOTE RELATIVE CHANGE 11 TO 14 ................................................................ 16
NATIONAL 2014 ELECTORATE VOTE/PARTY VOTE .................................................................................. 17
NATIONAL 2014 ELECTORATE MARGINS ................................................................................................... 18
2014 ELECTORATE MAJORITIES ................................................................................................................. 19
LABOUR 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ............................................................................................... 20
LABOUR 2014 ELECTORATE VOTE PERCENTAGE ................................................................................... 21
LABOUR 2014 ELECTORATE VOTE/PARTY VOTE ..................................................................................... 22
LABOUR 2014 ELECTORATE VOTE/LAB + GREEN PARTY VOTE ............................................................ 23
LABOUR PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14.................................................................................................. 24
LABOUR ELECTORATE VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14 .................................................................................... 25
GREENS 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ............................................................................................... 26
GREEN PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14.................................................................................................... 27
NZ FIRST 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE .............................................................................................. 28
NZ FIRST PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14 ................................................................................................ 29
CONSERVATIVE 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE .................................................................................. 30
CONSERVATIVE PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14 .................................................................................... 31
MAORI PARTY 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ..................................................................................... 32
MAORI PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14..................................................................................................... 33
MANA PARTY 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ...................................................................................... 34
MANA PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14 ...................................................................................................... 35
ACT 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ....................................................................................................... 36
ACT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14 ........................................................................................................ 37
UNITED FUTURE 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ................................................................................. 38
UNITED FUTURE PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14 .................................................................................. 39
RIGHT 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE (National/ACT/United Future/Conservative) ............................. 40
sCENTRE 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE (NZ First/Maori) ................................................................... 40
LEFT 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE (Labour/Greens/ /Mana) ............................................................. 42
RIGHT LEFT 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ..................................................................................... 43
RIGHT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14 ..................................................................................................... 44
LEFT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14 ........................................................................................................ 45
2014 VALID (PARTY) VOTERS ...................................................................................................................... 46
2014 TURNOUT .............................................................................................................................................. 47
2014 PARTY VOTE PLACINGS ...................................................................................................................... 48
2014 ELECTORATE VOTE PLACINGS .......................................................................................................... 49

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

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INTRODUCTION

This document shows results for National, Labour, Greens, NZ First, Conservatives, Maori Party, Mana (and
Internet) Party and ACT for the country, by region and area and for each of the 70 electorates. Generally
each page has the electorates ranked in order from best to worst for that particular criterion.
Electorates have been grouped into the five National Party Regions (plus a Maori Region) and also have
been grouped into Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Provincial, and Rural areas so results can be
compared for these groupings.
Parties have also been grouped together for bloc analysis. The following definitions have been used:
R = Right = National + ACT + United Future
C = Centre = NZ First + Maori Party
L = Left = Labour + Greens + Mana (including Internet Party))
R L = Gap between votes for the right and the left parties
Right parties are those who committed to a National-led Government.
Centre parties are those who said they could support either National or Labour, and were not ruled out be
either.
Left parties are those who generally would not support a National-led Government.
Note different definitions were used in my 2011 analysis, based on the different stances at the time. However
in this document the above definitions have been used for both 2014 and 2011 so that any comparisons are
valid.
The 2011 results have been manually adjusted to reflect the 2013 boundary changes. Polling places were
moved to their new electorates and special votes proportionally allocated to calculate nominal votes and
percentages for the 2014 electorates using the 2011 vote. This of course assumes people vote at their local
polling place, which will not be the case for all voters, but is for most.
Inquiries or requests for further information are welcome.

David Farrar
03 December 2014

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

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2014 OVERALL ELECTION RESULTS

Party
Votes

% of all
Party
Votes

% of
effective
party
vote

Seat
Entitlement

Electorate
Seats

List
Seats

Total
Seats

1,131,501

47.04%

50.17%

60

41

19

60

Labour

604,535

25.13%

26.80%

32

27

32

Greens

257,359

10.70%

11.41%

14

14

14

NZ First

208,300

8.66%

9.24%

11

11

11

Maori

31,849

1.32%

1.41%

ACT

16,689

0.69%

0.74%

5,286

0.22%

0.23%

SUB-TOTAL

2,255,519

93.76%

100.00%

120

71

50

121

Conservative

95,598

3.97%

Internet
Mana

34,094

1.42%

ALCP

10,961

0.46%

Ban 1080

5,113

0.21%

Democrats

1,730

0.07%

Civilian

1,096

0.05%

NZIC

872

0.04%

Focus

639

0.03%

2,405,622

100.00%

Party

National

United
Future

TOTAL

Right
Centre
Left

RL

1,249,074
240,149
895,988
353,086

51.92%
9.98%
37.25%

14.68%

The vote for centre-right parties was almost 15% higher than the vote for centre-left parties. Also of note is that
National got over 50% of the effective vote.
The wasted vote was 6.2%, up from 3.4% in 2011 and close to the 6.6% wasted in 2008. Conservatives were
the highest of the parties that did not make it.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

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OVERALL ELECTION RESULTS CHANGES 2011 TO 2014

Party
Vote
Change
%

2014
Party
Vote %

National

-0.27%

47.04%

Labour

-2.35%

Greens
NZ First

2011
Party
Vote %

Electorate
Vote
Change %

2014
Electorate
Vote %

2011
Electorate
Vote %

47.31%

-1.23%

46.08%

47.31%

25.13%

27.48%

-0.99%

34.13%

35.12%

-0.36%

10.70%

11.06%

-0.10%

7.06%

7.16%

2.07%

8.66%

6.59%

1.29%

3.13%

1.84%

Maori

-0.11%

1.32%

1.43%

-0.02%

1.79%

1.81%

Mana

0.34%

1.42%

1.08%

0.20%

1.57%

1.37%

ACT

-0.38%

0.69%

1.07%

-0.25%

1.18%

1.43%

United Future

-0.38%

0.22%

0.60%

-0.24%

0.63%

0.87%

SUB-TOTAL

-1.44%

95.18%

96.62%

-1.34%

95.57%

96.91%

Conservatives

1.32%

3.97%

2.65%

1.07%

3.45%

2.38%

Others

0.12%

0.85%

0.73%

0.25%

0.98%

0.73%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Party

TOTAL
Right

0.29%

51.92%

51.63%

-0.65%

51.34%

51.99%

Centre

1.96%

9.98%

8.02%

1.27%

4.92%

3.65%

-2.37%

37.25%

39.62%

-0.89%

42.76%

43.65%

2.66%

14.67%

12.01%

0.24%

8.58%

8.34%

Left
RL

The gap between right and left grew by almost 3%. This was mainly due to the increase for Conservatives
and decline for Labour.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

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2014 PARTY VOTE BY REGION

Party

Northern

CNI

LNI

C/W

Southern

Maori

National
Labour
Greens
NZ First
Maori
Mana
ACT
United Future

49.3%
26.1%
9.6%
7.5%
0.4%
1.0%
1.3%
0.2%

54.7%
18.5%
7.9%
11.2%
0.7%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%

45.7%
26.4%
12.9%
8.2%
0.5%
0.8%
0.4%
0.3%

50.6%
22.4%
12.3%
7.8%
0.4%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%

48.5%
24.6%
12.3%
8.0%
0.3%
0.8%
0.3%
0.2%

7.9%
41.2%
11.2%
13.0%
14.0%
10.2%
0.1%
0.1%

Conservatives

4.1%

4.9%

4.1%

4.0%

3.8%

0.6%

Right
Centre
Left

54.9%
7.9%
36.7%

60.2%
11.9%
27.1%

50.5%
8.7%
40.1%

55.3%
8.2%
35.4%

52.8%
8.3%
37.7%

8.7%
27.0%
62.6%

RL

18.2%

33.1%

10.4%

19.9%

15.1%

-53.9%

The above figures are on the boundaries of the five National Party Regions. The seven Maori seats are treated
as a de facto sixth Region to allow a cleaner comparison from Region to Region.
National got over 50% in the CNI and C/W Regions. LNI was the lowest Region at 45.7%
LNI Region is the best area for Labour at 26.4% followed by Northern at 26.1%. They are weakest in CNI at
18.5%.
NZ First was strongest in CNI Region at 11.2% and the Maori seats at 13.0%.
Maori and Mana parties were at or below 1% everywhere except the Maori seats where they got 14.0% and
10.2% of the party votes respectively
ACT support is higher in Northern with 1.3%.
Support for the Greens was best in LNI at 12.9%.
Conservatives did best in the CNI Region at 4.9%.
The gap between National and Labour for each Region was:
Northern +23.2%
CNI +36.2%
LNI +19.3%
C/W +28.2%
Southern +23.9%

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

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2014 PARTY VOTE BY AREA

Party

Auckland

Wgtn

Chch

Provincial

Rural

Maori

National
Labour
Greens
NZ First
Maori
Mana
ACT
United Future

48.6%
27.7%
9.7%
6.8%
0.4%
1.0%
1.4%
0.2%

41.3%
27.8%
17.7%
6.4%
0.6%
1.0%
0.5%
0.4%

48.5%
24.4%
13.4%
7.5%
0.4%
0.7%
0.6%
0.2%

48.4%
24.3%
9.9%
9.8%
0.5%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%

56.7%
16.5%
8.7%
10.1%
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%

7.9%
41.2%
11.2%
13.0%
14.0%
10.2%
0.1%
0.1%

Conservatives

3.9%

2.7%

3.5%

4.6%

5.1%

0.6%

Right
Centre
Left

54.1%
7.2%
38.4%

44.9%
7.0%
46.5%

52.8%
7.9%
38.5%

53.6%
10.3%
35.0%

62.4%
10.6%
25.8%

8.7%
27.0%
62.6%

RL

15.7%

-1.6%

14.3%

18.6%

36.6%

-53.9%

Auckland is defined as the 21 seats in greater Auckland stretching from Rodney in the North to Papakura
in the South.
Wellington is the six seats South of and including Mana and Rimutaka.
Christchurch is the six seats wholly or mainly in Christchurch including Waimakariri and Port Hills.
Provincial are those 17 seats which have more than 50% of their population in minor cities such as Nelson,
New Plymouth, Dunedin, Hamilton, Napier etc.
Rural are the 14 seats where less than 50% of the population live in a city.

Labour is strongest in Wellington at 27.8% and weakest in rural NZ at 16.5%

National is lowest in Wellington at 41.3% and highest in rural NZ at 56.7%.
NZ First does very well in provincial and rural NZ and worst in Wellington.
ACT is strongest in Auckland.
Greens are very high in Wellington at 17.7% and also Christchurch at 13.4%.
United Future also strongest in Wellington.
Conservatives did best in rural NZ, where they exceeded 5%.
The gap between National and Labour for each area was:
Auckland +20.9%
Wellington +13.5%
Christchurch +24.1%
Provincial +24.1%
Rural +40.2%

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

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PARTY VOTE CHANGE 2011 2014 BY REGION

Party

Northern

CNI

LNI

C/W

Southern

Maori

National
Labour
Greens
NZ First
Maori
Mana
ACT
United Future

-0.5%
-2.6%
0.2%
1.6%
-0.2%
0.6%
-0.1%
-0.2%

0.7%
-1.8%
-1.3%
1.9%
0.0%
0.3%
-0.8%
-0.5%

0.3%
-3.0%
-0.4%
2.3%
-0.1%
0.5%
-0.5%
-0.5%

-0.4%
-2.7%
-0.6%
2.3%
0.0%
0.5%
-0.3%
-0.6%

0.1%
-2.3%
-0.7%
2.0%
-0.1%
0.6%
-0.8%
-0.5%

-0.7%
0.2%
0.9%
3.5%
-1.6%
-2.8%
-0.1%
0.0%

Conservatives

1.3%

1.4%

1.5%

1.4%

1.6%

0.1%

0.5%
1.4%
-1.8%

0.8%
1.9%
-2.8%

0.8%
2.2%
-2.9%

0.1%
2.3%
-2.8%

0.4%
1.9%
-2.4%

-0.7%
1.9%
-1.7%

2.3%

3.6%

3.7%

2.9%

2.8%

1.0%

Right
Centre
Left
RL

National had the biggest increases in CNI and biggest decrease in Northern.
Labours biggest declines were in C/W and Northern Regions.
The Greens went up in Northern and dropped elsewhere.
In terms of the gap between right and left it increased by 0.1% in C/W to 0.8% in Northern and CNI.

PARTY VOTE CHANGE 2011 2014 BY AREA

Party

Auckland

Wgtn

Chch

Provincial

Rural

Maori

National
Labour
Greens
NZ First
Maori
Mana
ACT
United Future

-0.5%
-2.7%
0.3%
1.4%
-0.2%
0.6%
0.1%
-0.2%

0.2%
-4.3%
0.5%
1.7%
0.0%
0.6%
-0.3%
-0.5%

-0.9%
-2.3%
-0.3%
2.2%
0.0%
0.5%
-0.1%
-0.4%

0.1%
-2.5%
-1.0%
2.2%
-0.1%
0.5%
-0.6%
-0.5%

0.5%
-2.3%
-1.2%
2.4%
0.0%
0.3%
-0.9%
-0.6%

-0.7%
0.2%
0.9%
3.5%
-1.6%
-2.8%
-0.1%
0.0%

Conservatives

1.4%

1.1%

1.3%

1.7%

1.4%

0.1%

0.8%
1.2%
-1.8%

0.5%
1.7%
-3.2%

-0.1%
2.2%
-2.1%

0.7%
2.1%
-3.0%

0.4%
2.4%
-3.2%

-0.7%
1.9%
-1.7%

2.6%

3.7%

2.0%

3.7%

3.6%

1.0%

Right
Centre
Left
RL

National gained the most (0.5%) in rural NZ and dropped the most (0.9%) in Christchurch..
Labour lost the most in Wellington (4.3%) and lost the least (2.3%) in Christchurch and rural NZ.
Greens did best in Wellington with a 0.5% increase in their vote, but dropped 1.0% in provincial NZ and 1.2%
in rural NZ.
The right-left margin increased by 3.7% in Wellington and provincial NZ and only 2.0% in Christchurch.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

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NATIONAL 2014 PARTY VOTE

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Tamaki
Rodney
Epsom
North Shore
Hunua
Selwyn
Waitaki
Clutha Southland
Waikato
Bay of Plenty
New Plymouth
East Coast Bays
Pakuranga
Kaikoura
Waimakariri
Tauranga
Taupo
Helensville
Taranaki-King Country
Coromandel
Ilam
Rangitata
Botany
Wairarapa
Otaki
Ohariu
Port Hills
Tukituki
Rangitikei
Whangarei
Upper Harbour
Napier
Northcote
Papakura
Rotorua
Hutt South

24,091
24,051
23,904
23,762
22,929
22,809
22,656
21,694
21,598
21,096
20,969
20,895
20,854
20,770
20,734
20,728
20,703
20,689
20,637
20,547
20,377
20,108
20,016
19,634
18,854
18,810
18,719
18,680
18,596
18,503
18,122
18,005
17,900
17,733
17,660
17,648

37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Northland
Hamilton East
East Coast
Nelson
Invercargill
Whanganui
Hamilton West
West Coast Tasman
Rimutaka
Christchurch Central
Dunedin South
Mana
Palmerston North
Wellington Central
Maungakiekie
Mt Albert
Mt Roskill
Te Atatu
New Lynn
Wigram
Christchurch East
Auckland Central
Rongotai
Dunedin North
Kelston
Manurewa
Manukau East
Mangere
Te Tai Tonga
Te Tai Tokerau
Hauraki-Waikato
Tamaki Makaurau
Te Tai Hauauru
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Waiariki

17,412
17,395
17,152
16,904
16,880
16,687
16,072
16,058
15,352
15,301
15,003
14,850
14,835
14,689
14,394
14,359
14,275
13,614
13,136
13,117
12,928
12,652
12,606
11,302
9,924
7,612
5,392
4,281
2,977
1,938
1,583
1,575
1,456
1,189
1,120

Tamaki had the highest absolute party vote for National at 24,091 with Rodney second on 24,051.
In total 33 electorates got a party vote over 20,000 ten more than in 2011.
47 (+5) seats got a party vote over 15,000 and 60 (+1) seats had a party vote over 10,000.
The median electorate was Hutt South on 17,648 votes and the worst electorates after the Maori seats were
Mangere and Manukau East.
The number of electors who vote in each electorate can vary by over 10,000 so generally the percentage
National got is seen as a more useful comparison.
Port Hills in 27th place had the highest party vote of the seats we contested (excluding Epsom and Ohariu) but
did not win. Conversely Auckland Central in 58th place had the lowest party vote of the seats National did win.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 10 -

NATIONAL 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Tamaki
Hunua
Epsom
Selwyn
East Coast Bays
Clutha Southland
North Shore
Taranaki-King Country
Rodney
Pakuranga
Waikato
Botany
Helensville
Ilam
Bay of Plenty
Waimakariri
Waitaki
Taupo
Kaikoura
New Plymouth
Tauranga
Rangitata
Upper Harbour
Coromandel
Rangitikei
Wairarapa
Rotorua
Tukituki
Papakura
Northcote
Ohariu
Whangarei
Hamilton East
Invercargill
Napier
Otaki

65.7%
63.9%
63.6%
63.6%
63.4%
63.4%
61.7%
61.5%
61.2%
60.4%
60.2%
59.6%
58.5%
57.7%
57.7%
57.5%
57.2%
57.1%
56.6%
55.8%
55.8%
55.6%
54.5%
54.2%
53.6%
52.5%
52.1%
52.0%
51.3%
50.7%
50.4%
50.2%
50.0%
49.5%
49.4%
49.1%

37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Northland
East Coast
Hamilton West
Whanganui
Port Hills
Hutt South
Auckland Central
West Coast Tasman
Christchurch Central
Nelson
Palmerston North
Wigram
Mt Roskill
Maungakiekie
Rimutaka
Te Atatu
Mana
Dunedin South
Christchurch East
New Lynn
Mt Albert
Wellington Central
Rongotai
Kelston
Dunedin North
Manurewa
Manukau East
Mangere
Te Tai Tonga
Te Tai Tokerau
Tamaki Makaurau
Hauraki-Waikato
Te Tai Hauauru
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Waiariki

49.0%
48.6%
47.7%
47.3%
47.0%
45.3%
44.9%
44.8%
44.7%
44.4%
43.2%
42.9%
42.1%
41.6%
41.5%
41.1%
40.5%
39.9%
39.8%
39.2%
39.1%
37.6%
32.7%
32.3%
32.3%
27.7%
20.3%
15.7%
14.4%
8.6%
7.6%
7.6%
7.1%
5.5%
5.1%

On a percentage basis Tamaki had the best party vote for National at 65.7% followed by Hunua and Epsom.
11 (-2) electorates got over 60% party vote, and 33 (+1) electorates got over 50% party vote. 53 (+2)
electorates got over 40% party vote.
Napier in 35th place was the highest polling seat of those National did not win but contested. Maungakiekie in
50th place had the lowest party vote percentage of the seats National did win.
The median electorate is Otaki on 49.1%.
Apart from the Maori seats Mangere, Manukau East and Manurewa were worse for National on 15.7%, 20.3%
and 27.7%.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 11 -

NATIONAL 2014 ELECTORATE VOTE

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32

Tamaki
Selwyn
Waitaki
Rodney
North Shore
Hunua
Rangitata
Waikato
Helensville
Taupo
Taranaki-King Country
Coromandel
Bay of Plenty
New Plymouth
Clutha Southland
Botany
Otaki
Kaikoura
Tauranga
Rangitikei
Pakuranga
Whangarei
Nelson
Ilam
East Coast Bays
Northcote
Hamilton East
Rotorua
Whanganui
Tukituki
Upper Harbour
Northland

25,539
24,625
24,547
24,519
23,783
23,621
23,518
22,911
22,720
22,448
22,328
21,934
21,735
21,566
21,561
21,044
20,980
20,857
20,711
20,487
20,388
20,111
20,000
19,981
19,957
19,696
19,393
18,715
18,649
18,537
18,315
18,269

33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64

East Coast
Invercargill
Hamilton West
Waimakariri
Wairarapa
Maungakiekie
Hutt South
Port Hills
Papakura
Christchurch Central
Palmerston North
Dunedin South
Te Atatu
West Coast Tasman
Rimutaka
Auckland Central
New Lynn
Epsom
Mana
Wellington Central
Napier
Wigram
Christchurch East
Mt Roskill
Dunedin North
Mt Albert
Kelston
Rongotai
Manurewa
Ohariu
Manukau East
Mangere

18,074
17,526
17,382
17,263
16,223
16,132
16,127
15,933
15,588
15,346
14,673
14,324
12,863
12,653
12,622
12,494
11,977
11,716
11,698
11,540
11,493
11,189
11,148
10,546
10,398
10,314
9,724
9,223
7,636
6,120
4,422
3,975

Tamaki had the highest electorate vote for National at 25,539 with Selwyn and Waitaki following.
23 (+7) National MPs managed to attract over 20,000 votes.
The median electorate was Northland on 18,269 votes and the worst electorates (Maori seats were not
contested) were Mangere and Manukau East.
The number of electors who vote in each electorate can vary by over 10,000 so generally the percentage
National got is seen as a more useful comparison.
Hutt South in 39th place had the highest electorate vote of the seats National contested but did not win.
Conversely Auckland Central in 48th place had the lowest electorate vote of the seats National did win.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 12 -

NATIONAL 2014 ELECTORATE VOTE PERCENTAGE

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32

Tamaki
Selwyn
Taranaki-King Country
Hunua
Rangitata
Waikato
Helensville
Botany
Clutha Southland
Rodney
North Shore
Taupo
Waitaki
East Coast Bays
Pakuranga
Bay of Plenty
Rangitikei
Coromandel
New Plymouth
Ilam
Kaikoura
Hamilton East
Northcote
Tauranga
Upper Harbour
Rotorua
Whangarei
Otaki
Whanganui
Nelson
Hamilton West
Northland

71.4%
70.0%
68.2%
67.6%
67.2%
65.7%
65.6%
65.1%
64.1%
63.4%
63.1%
63.1%
63.0%
61.9%
61.0%
60.7%
60.3%
58.7%
58.4%
58.1%
57.7%
57.4%
57.0%
56.9%
56.5%
56.3%
55.6%
55.4%
53.7%
53.4%
53.1%
52.7%

33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64

Tukituki
East Coast
Invercargill
Waimakariri
Maungakiekie
Papakura
Christchurch Central
Auckland Central
Wairarapa
Palmerston North
Hutt South
Port Hills
Te Atatu
Dunedin South
Wigram
New Lynn
West Coast Tasman
Christchurch East
Rimutaka
Kelston
Mana
Napier
Mt Roskill
Epsom
Wellington Central
Dunedin North
Manurewa
Mt Albert
Rongotai
Manukau East
Ohariu
Mangere

52.5%
52.4%
52.1%
48.6%
48.4%
46.8%
46.2%
45.8%
43.9%
43.5%
42.0%
40.7%
40.0%
38.7%
37.7%
36.9%
35.7%
35.2%
34.7%
32.8%
32.6%
32.0%
32.0%
31.9%
30.3%
30.2%
29.5%
28.9%
24.4%
17.4%
16.6%
15.2%

Tamaki is the only National seat with over 70% of the vote 71.4%. Following that are Selwyn, Taranaki-King Country
and Hunua.
17 seats (nc) had electorate votes of over 60% and 35 (-1) seats had an absolute majority of over 50%.
Palmerston North on 43.5% in 42nd place had the highest electorate vote percentage of any seat which National did not
win. Auckland Central in 40th place had the lowest percentage on 45.8% of a seat National did win.
Nationals electorate vote percentage was lowest in Mangere, Ohariu, Manukau East, and Rongotai.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 13 -

NATIONAL PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37

New Lynn
Rangitata
New
Plymouth
Otaki
Waitaki
Coromandel
Manurewa
Mangere
Ohariu
Kaikoura
Wairarapa
Taupo
Tauranga
Mt Albert
Manukau
East
Bay of Plenty
Hunua
Hutt South
Selwyn
Mana
Clutha
Southland
Waikato
Napier
Tamaki
Hamilton
West
Auckland
Central
Rangitikei
HaurakiWaikato
Mt Roskill
TaranakiKing Country
Dunedin
South
Waimakariri
Rongotai
Rodney
Maungakiekie
Wellington
Central
Rotorua

Change
3.2%
2.4%

2014
39.2%
55.6%

2011
36.0%
53.2%

2.3%
2.2%
1.9%
1.8%
1.6%
1.3%
1.2%
1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%

55.8%
49.1%
57.2%
54.2%
27.7%
15.7%
50.4%
56.6%
52.5%
57.1%
55.8%
39.1%

53.6%
46.9%
55.3%
52.3%
26.1%
14.4%
49.2%
55.4%
51.5%
0.563
55.0%
38.3%

0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%

20.3%
57.7%
63.9%
45.3%
63.6%
40.5%

19.6%
57.0%
63.2%
44.6%
62.9%
40.0%

0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%

63.4%
60.2%
49.4%
65.7%

62.9%
59.8%
49.0%
65.3%

0.3%

47.7%

47.5%

0.2%
0.2%

44.9%
53.6%

44.7%
53.5%

0.1%
0.1%

7.6%
42.1%

7.5%
42.0%

0.1%

61.5%

61.4%

0.1%
0.0%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.4%

39.9%
57.5%
32.7%
61.2%
41.6%

39.8%
57.5%
33.0%
61.5%
42.0%

-0.4%
-0.4%

37.6%
52.1%

38.0%
52.4%

38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Invercargill
Whangarei
North Shore
Te Tai Tonga
Hamilton
East
IkaroaRawhiti
Te Atatu
Whanganui
Papakura
Rimutaka
Tukituki
Te Tai
Tokerau
Ilam
Waiariki
Te Tai
Hauauru
East Coast
Tamaki
Makaurau
Epsom
Palmerston
North
Nelson
West Coast
Tasman
Northland
Wigram
Christchurch
Central
Helensville
Dunedin
North
East Coast
Bays
Northcote
Botany
Pakuranga
Upper
Harbour
Port Hills
Kelston
Christchurch
East

-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.5%
-0.5%

49.5%
50.2%
61.7%
14.4%

49.9%
50.7%
62.2%
14.9%

-0.5%

50.0%

50.5%

-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.6%
-0.6%
-0.6%

5.5%
41.1%
47.3%
51.3%
41.5%
52.0%

6.0%
41.7%
47.8%
51.8%
42.0%
52.6%

-0.6%
-0.6%
-0.6%

8.6%
57.7%
5.1%

9.2%
58.3%
5.7%

-0.7%
-0.7%

7.1%
48.6%

7.8%
49.4%

-0.8%
-0.9%

7.6%
63.6%

8.4%
64.5%

-0.9%
-1.0%

43.2%
44.4%

44.1%
45.4%

-1.0%
-1.2%
-1.2%

44.8%
49.0%
42.9%

45.8%
50.1%
44.1%

-1.3%
-1.3%

44.7%
58.5%

45.9%
59.8%

-1.5%

32.3%

33.7%

-1.5%
-1.6%
-2.1%
-2.4%

63.4%
50.7%
59.6%
60.4%

64.9%
52.3%
61.7%
62.8%

-2.6%
-2.6%
-3.7%

54.5%
47.0%
32.3%

57.0%
49.6%
36.0%

-4.4%

39.8%

44.2%

32 of 70 electorate increased the party vote. New Lynn had the largest increase at 3.2%, followed by
Rangitata at 2.4%%, new Plymouth at 2.3% and Otaki on 2.2%.
The seat with the largest decreases for National were Christchurch East, Kelston and Port Hills.
11 seats had an increase of 1% or more, and 15 seats an decrease of 1% or more.
The median electorate was Wellington Central with a 0.4% decrease.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 14 -

NATIONAL PARTY VOTE RELATIVE CHANGE 11 TO 14

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37

Mangere
New Lynn
Manurewa
Otaki
Rangitata
New
Plymouth
Manukau
East
Coromandel
Waitaki
Ohariu
Kaikoura
Mt Albert
Wairarapa
Hutt South
Taupo
Mana
Tauranga
HaurakiWaikato
Bay of Plenty
Hunua
Selwyn
Napier
Clutha
Southland
Waikato
Hamilton
West
Tamaki
Auckland
Central
Rangitikei
Mt Roskill
Dunedin
South
TaranakiKing Country
Waimakariri
Rodney
North Shore
Rotorua
Rongotai
Invercargill

Change
9.0%
9.0%
6.0%
4.6%
4.5%

2014
15.7%
39.2%
27.7%
49.1%
55.6%

2011
14.4%
36.0%
26.1%
46.9%
53.2%

4.2%

55.8%

53.6%

3.7%
3.5%
3.4%
2.5%
2.2%
2.0%
1.9%
1.5%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%

20.3%
54.2%
57.2%
50.4%
56.6%
39.1%
52.5%
45.3%
57.1%
40.5%
55.8%

19.6%
52.3%
55.3%
49.2%
55.4%
38.3%
51.5%
44.6%
0.563
40.0%
55.0%

1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
0.8%

7.6%
57.7%
63.9%
63.6%
49.4%

7.5%
57.0%
63.2%
62.9%
49.0%

0.8%
0.7%

63.4%
60.2%

62.9%
59.8%

0.6%
0.5%

47.7%
65.7%

47.5%
65.3%

0.5%
0.3%
0.2%

44.9%
53.6%
42.1%

44.7%
53.5%
42.0%

0.1%

39.9%

39.8%

0.1%
0.0%
-0.5%
-0.7%
-0.7%
-0.8%
-0.8%

61.5%
57.5%
61.2%
61.7%
52.1%
32.7%
49.5%

61.4%
57.5%
61.5%
62.2%
52.4%
33.0%
49.9%

38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Whangarei
Maungakiekie
Hamilton
East
Wellington
Central
Ilam
Papakura
Tukituki
Whanganui
Te Atatu
Epsom
Rimutaka
East Coast
Palmerston
North
Helensville
Nelson
West Coast
Tasman
East Coast
Bays
Northland
Wigram
Christchurch
Central
Northcote
Te Tai Tonga
Botany
Pakuranga
Dunedin
North
Upper
Harbour
Port Hills
Te Tai
Tokerau
IkaroaRawhiti
Te Tai
Hauauru
Tamaki
Makaurau
Christchurch
East
Kelston
Waiariki

-0.8%
-0.9%

50.2%
41.6%

50.7%
42.0%

-1.0%

50.0%

50.5%

-1.0%
-1.1%
-1.1%
-1.1%
-1.1%
-1.3%
-1.3%
-1.4%
-1.5%

37.6%
57.7%
51.3%
52.0%
47.3%
41.1%
63.6%
41.5%
48.6%

38.0%
58.3%
51.8%
52.6%
47.8%
41.7%
64.5%
42.0%
49.4%

-2.1%
-2.2%
-2.2%

43.2%
58.5%
44.4%

44.1%
59.8%
45.4%

-2.2%

44.8%

45.8%

-2.3%
-2.3%
-2.7%

63.4%
49.0%
42.9%

64.9%
50.1%
44.1%

-2.8%
-3.0%
-3.2%
-3.4%
-3.8%

44.7%
50.7%
14.4%
59.6%
60.4%

45.9%
52.3%
14.9%
61.7%
62.8%

-4.3%

32.3%

33.7%

-4.5%
-5.2%

54.5%
47.0%

57.0%
49.6%

-6.7%

8.6%

9.2%

-8.8%

5.5%

6.0%

-8.9%

7.1%

7.8%

-9.3%

7.6%

8.4%

-9.9%
-10.2%
-11.0%

39.8%
32.3%
5.1%

44.2%
36.0%
5.7%

The key difference between this table and the previous is the percentage change is not shown as an
absolute shift in the percentage of the party vote, but the relative change as a percentage of the 2011 vote.
Mangere and New Lynn saw National grow their vote 9% in a relative sense.
The median increase was -0.8% in Rongotai.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 15 -

NATIONAL ELECTORATE VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33

Rangitata
Rodney
Hutt South
New Lynn
New Plymouth
Otaki
East Coast
Coromandel
Manukau East
Tamaki
Manurewa
Mangere
Palmerston
North
Christchurch
Central
Dunedin South
Rangitikei
Waitaki
Waikato
Hamilton East
Hunua
Helensville
Maungakiekie
Waimakariri
North Shore
Botany
Hamilton West
Nelson
Selwyn
Te Atatu
Whanganui
Taupo
Christchurch
East
Rongotai

Change
12.3%
10.5%
6.5%
4.5%
4.5%
3.8%
3.5%
3.5%
3.3%
2.8%
2.6%
2.6%

2014
67.2%
63.4%
42.0%
36.9%
58.4%
55.4%
52.4%
58.7%
17.4%
71.4%
29.5%
15.2%

2011
55.0%
52.9%
35.4%
32.4%
53.9%
51.6%
48.9%
55.2%
14.1%
68.6%
26.9%
12.6%

2.4%

43.5%

41.1%

2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.5%
1.1%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
0.0%
-0.4%
-0.5%
-0.5%

46.2%
38.7%
60.3%
63.0%
65.7%
57.4%
67.6%
65.6%
48.4%
48.6%
63.1%
65.1%
53.1%
53.4%
70.0%
40.0%
53.7%
63.1%

44.2%
36.8%
58.5%
61.4%
64.6%
56.3%
66.5%
64.6%
47.6%
47.9%
62.4%
64.6%
52.8%
53.1%
69.9%
40.3%
54.2%
63.7%

-0.9%
-1.0%

35.2%
24.4%

36.2%
25.4%

34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64

Rotorua
Northcote
Wellington
Central
Taranaki-King
Country
Wigram
Ilam
Kelston
Invercargill
Kaikoura
Auckland
Central
Mt Albert
Ohariu
Whangarei
Dunedin North
Upper Harbour
West Coast
Tasman
Rimutaka
Clutha
Southland
Northland
Pakuranga
Tauranga
Port Hills
Tukituki
East Coast
Bays
Bay of Plenty
Mt Roskill
Epsom
Wairarapa
Mana
Papakura
Napier

-1.4%
-1.4%

56.3%
57.0%

57.7%
58.5%

-1.7%

30.3%

32.0%

-2.2%
-2.3%
-2.3%
-2.5%
-2.5%
-2.5%

68.2%
37.7%
58.1%
32.8%
52.1%
57.7%

70.4%
40.0%
60.4%
35.3%
54.6%
60.2%

-2.8%
-2.9%
-3.0%
-3.6%
-3.8%
-4.0%

45.8%
28.9%
16.6%
55.6%
30.2%
56.5%

48.6%
31.8%
19.6%
59.2%
34.1%
60.6%

-4.1%
-4.4%

35.7%
34.7%

39.9%
39.1%

-4.8%
-4.8%
-4.8%
-5.4%
-5.7%
-5.9%

64.1%
52.7%
61.0%
56.9%
40.7%
52.5%

68.8%
57.5%
65.9%
62.3%
46.4%
58.4%

-6.0%
-6.2%
-6.3%
-6.3%
-8.8%
-9.3%
-12.0%
-20.2%

61.9%
60.7%
32.0%
31.9%
43.9%
32.6%
46.8%
32.0%

67.9%
66.9%
38.3%
38.2%
52.6%
42.0%
58.8%
52.2%

Rangitata had the largest electorate vote increase at 12.3% followed by Rodney on 10.5% and Hutt South on
6.5%.
The biggest increase for a seat National did not win after Hutt South was new Lynn at 4.5% and Manukau
East on 3.3%.
National increased the electorate vote % in 28 seats and had it drop in 36 seats.
The median electorate was Christchurch East with a 0.9% decrease.
The largest drops were in Napier 20.2%, Papakura 12.0%, Mana 9.3% and Wairarapa 8.8%

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 16 -

NATIONAL ELECTORATE VOTE RELATIVE CHANGE 11 TO 14

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

Manukau East
Rangitata
Mangere
Rodney
Hutt South
New Lynn
Manurewa
New Plymouth
Otaki
East Coast
Coromandel
Palmerston
North
Dunedin South
Christchurch
Central
Tamaki
Rangitikei
Waitaki
Hamilton East
Waikato
Maungakiekie
Hunua
Waimakariri
Helensville
North Shore
Botany
Hamilton West
Nelson
Selwyn
Taupo
Te Atatu
Whanganui
Rotorua
Northcote
Christchurch
East

Change
23.6%
22.3%
20.9%
19.9%
18.4%
14.0%
9.8%
8.3%
7.4%
7.2%
6.3%

2014
17.4%
67.2%
15.2%
63.4%
42.0%
36.9%
29.5%
58.4%
55.4%
52.4%
58.7%

2011
14.1%
55.0%
12.6%
52.9%
35.4%
32.4%
26.9%
53.9%
51.6%
48.9%
55.2%

5.8%
5.1%

43.5%
38.7%

41.1%
36.8%

4.6%
4.1%
3.1%
2.5%
1.9%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.5%
1.1%
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.0%
-0.8%
-0.9%
-0.9%
-2.4%
-2.5%

46.2%
71.4%
60.3%
63.0%
57.4%
65.7%
48.4%
67.6%
48.6%
65.6%
63.1%
65.1%
53.1%
53.4%
70.0%
63.1%
40.0%
53.7%
56.3%
57.0%

44.2%
68.6%
58.5%
61.4%
56.3%
64.6%
47.6%
66.5%
47.9%
64.6%
62.4%
64.6%
52.8%
53.1%
69.9%
63.7%
40.3%
54.2%
57.7%
58.5%

-2.6%

35.2%

36.2%

35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64

Taranaki-King
Country
Ilam
Rongotai
Kaikoura
Invercargill
Wellington
Central
Wigram
Auckland
Central
Whangarei
Upper Harbour
Clutha
Southland
Kelston
Pakuranga
Northland
Tauranga
East Coast
Bays
Mt Albert
Bay of Plenty
Tukituki
West Coast
Tasman
Rimutaka
Dunedin North
Port Hills
Ohariu
Mt Roskill
Epsom
Wairarapa
Papakura
Mana
Napier

-3.1%
-3.8%
-3.9%
-4.2%
-4.6%

68.2%
58.1%
24.4%
57.7%
52.1%

70.4%
60.4%
25.4%
60.2%
54.6%

-5.4%
-5.7%

30.3%
37.7%

32.0%
40.0%

-5.8%
-6.1%
-6.6%

45.8%
55.6%
56.5%

48.6%
59.2%
60.6%

-6.9%
-7.0%
-7.3%
-8.4%
-8.7%

64.1%
32.8%
61.0%
52.7%
56.9%

68.8%
35.3%
65.9%
57.5%
62.3%

-8.8%
-9.2%
-9.3%
-10.0%

61.9%
28.9%
60.7%
52.5%

67.9%
31.8%
66.9%
58.4%

-10.3%
-11.2%
-11.3%
-12.2%
-15.4%
-16.4%
-16.5%
-16.6%
-20.5%
-22.2%
-38.7%

35.7%
34.7%
30.2%
40.7%
16.6%
32.0%
31.9%
43.9%
46.8%
32.6%
32.0%

39.9%
39.1%
34.1%
46.4%
19.6%
38.3%
38.2%
52.6%
58.8%
42.0%
52.2%

The key difference between this table and the previous is the percentage change is not shown as an
absolute shift in the percentage of the party vote, but the relative change as a percentage of the 2005 vote.
Manukau East had the largest relative change with a 23.6% increase, followed by Rangitata, Mangere and
Rodney.
The median relative increase was Rotorua with a 2.4% relative decrease.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 17 -

NATIONAL 2014 ELECTORATE VOTE/PARTY VOTE

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33

Rangitata
Nelson
Maungakiekie
Hamilton East
Whanganui
Otaki
Rangitikei
Northcote
Helensville
Hamilton West
Taranaki-King
Country
Whangarei
Taupo
Waitaki
Selwyn
Botany
Waikato
Tamaki
Coromandel
Rotorua
East Coast
Northland
Manurewa
Hunua
Invercargill
Bay of Plenty
New Plymouth
Upper Harbour
Rodney
Christchurch
Central
North Shore
Auckland Central
Kaikoura

EV/PV
121.0%
120.1%
116.2%
114.7%
113.6%
112.9%
112.5%
112.4%
112.1%
111.2%

EV
67.2%
53.4%
48.4%
57.4%
53.7%
55.4%
60.3%
57.0%
65.6%
53.1%

PV
55.6%
44.4%
41.6%
50.0%
0.473
49.1%
53.6%
50.7%
58.5%
47.7%

110.9%
110.6%
110.5%
110.2%
110.0%
109.2%
109.1%
108.7%
108.4%
108.2%
107.7%
107.7%
106.5%
105.7%
105.3%
105.3%
104.6%
103.8%
103.7%

68.2%
55.6%
63.1%
63.0%
70.0%
65.1%
65.7%
71.4%
58.7%
56.3%
52.4%
52.7%
29.5%
67.6%
52.1%
60.7%
58.4%
56.5%
63.4%

61.5%
0.502
57.1%
0.572
63.6%
59.6%
60.2%
65.7%
54.2%
52.1%
48.6%
49.0%
27.7%
63.9%
49.5%
57.7%
55.8%
54.5%
61.2%

103.5%
102.3%
102.0%
101.9%

46.2%
63.1%
45.8%
57.7%

44.7%
61.7%
44.9%
56.6%

34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64

Tauranga
Kelston
Clutha Southland
Tukituki
Pakuranga
Palmerston
North
Ilam
East Coast Bays
Mangere
Te Atatu
Dunedin South
New Lynn
Dunedin North
Hutt South
Papakura
Christchurch
East
Wigram
Port Hills
Manukau East
Waimakariri
Rimutaka
Wairarapa
Wellington
Central
Mana
West Coast
Tasman
Mt Roskill
Rongotai
Mt Albert
Napier
Epsom
Ohariu

101.9%
101.5%
101.1%
101.1%
101.0%

56.9%
32.8%
64.1%
52.5%
61.0%

55.8%
32.3%
63.4%
52.0%
60.4%

100.7%
100.6%
97.7%
97.3%
97.3%
97.0%
94.0%
93.6%
92.6%
91.2%

43.5%
58.1%
61.9%
15.2%
40.0%
38.7%
36.9%
30.2%
42.0%
46.8%

43.2%
57.7%
63.4%
15.7%
41.1%
39.9%
39.2%
32.3%
45.3%
51.3%

88.5%
87.9%
86.8%
85.7%
84.5%
83.7%
83.6%

35.2%
37.7%
40.7%
17.4%
48.6%
34.7%
43.9%

39.8%
0.429
47.0%
20.3%
57.5%
41.5%
0.525

80.5%
80.5%

30.3%
32.6%

0.376
40.5%

79.8%
76.0%
74.5%
73.9%
64.8%
50.1%
33.0%

35.7%
32.0%
24.4%
28.9%
32.0%
31.9%
16.6%

0.448
42.1%
32.7%
39.1%
49.4%
63.6%
50.4%

This shows how National did in the electorate vote relative to the party vote in each seat. At 100% it means
the electorate vote percentage was exactly equal to the party vote percentage.
Rangitata just pipped Nelson as the seat where the candidate was most popular relative to the party vote at
121%. This was followed by Maungakiekie and Hamilton East at 116% and 115% respectively.
Manurewa was the highest of the general electorate seats National did not win at 107%.
The median seat was Auckland Central at 102.0%.
The lowest ratio for a seat National did win was Wairarapa at 83.6%.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 18 -

NATIONAL 2014 ELECTORATE MARGINS

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32

Selwyn
Tamaki
Rodney
Helensville
Hunua
Taranaki-King Country
Waitaki
North Shore
Waikato
Coromandel
Bay of Plenty
Taupo
East Coast Bays
Clutha Southland
Tauranga
Rangitata
Botany
Whangarei
Pakuranga
Kaikoura
Ilam
Rangitikei
Hamilton East
New Plymouth
Upper Harbour
Northcote
Northland
East Coast
Otaki
Nelson
Invercargill
Rotorua

20,561
20,421
20,230
18,287
17,376
16,773
16,668
16,503
16,169
15,801
15,096
15,046
15,034
14,886
14,842
14,107
13,495
13,169
12,867
12,570
11,898
11,060
10,199
9,778
9,692
9,664
9,300
7,934
7,782
7,605
7,482
7,418

33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64

Wairarapa
Tukituki
Hamilton West
Papakura
Whanganui
Waimakariri
Christchurch Central
Maungakiekie
Auckland Central
Hutt South
Palmerston North
Port Hills
Te Atatu
Wigram
Napier
Dunedin South
Christchurch East
West Coast Tasman
Epsom
New Lynn
Kelston
Dunedin North
Manurewa
Rimutaka
Ohariu
Mana
Mt Roskill
Wellington Central
Rongotai
Mt Albert
Manukau East
Mangere

6,771
6,490
5,784
5,119
4,505
2,506
2,420
2,348
600
709
2,212
2,228
2,813
3,330
3,850
3,858
4,073
4,094
4,250
4,557
5,367
5,917
6,402
6,664
7,449
7,953
8,091
8,267
9,617
10,656
13,254
14,933

Please note this is the margin between the National Candidate and either the 2 nd place getter or the person
who won the seat. In some seats National came third or lower so the margin shown here is not necessarily
the margin the seat was won by that is on another table.
Amy Adams in Selwyn has the largest majority at 20,561. In total National won 41 seats and have margins of
over 10,000 in 23 (+2) of them and over 5,000 in a further 13 (+1). Nationals most marginal seat is Auckland
Central on 600 votes, followed by Maungakiekie and Christchurch Central.
In three seats the National candidate was more than 10,000 votes behind the winning candidate. In a total of
12 seats the National candidate was more than 5,000 votes behind the winning candidate.
There are four seats (Hutt South, Palmerston North, Port Hills and Te Atatu) National lost by less than 3.000
votes.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 19 -

2014 ELECTORATE MAJORITIES

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Selwyn
Tamaki
Rodney
Helensville
Hunua
Taranaki-King
Country
Waitaki
North Shore
Waikato
Coromandel
Bay of Plenty
Taupo
East Coast Bays
Mangere
Clutha Southland
Tauranga
Rangitata
Botany
Manukau East
Whangarei
Pakuranga
Kaikoura
Ilam
Rangitikei
Mt Albert
Hamilton East
New Plymouth
Upper Harbour
Northcote
Rongotai
Northland
Wellington Central
Mt Roskill
Mana
East Coast

Majority
20,561
20,421
20,230
18,287
17,376

Party
NAT
NAT
NAT
NAT
NAT

16,773
16,668
16,503
16,169
15,801
15,096
15,046
15,034
14,933
14,886
14,842
14,107
13,495
13,254
13,169
12,867
12,570
11,898
11,060
10,656
10,199
9,778
9,692
9,664
9,617
9,300
8,267
8,091
7,953
7,934

NAT
NAT
NAT
NAT
NAT
NAT
NAT
NAT
LAB
NAT
NAT
NAT
NAT
LAB
NAT
NAT
NAT
NAT
NAT
LAB
NAT
NAT
NAT
NAT
LAB
NAT
LAB
LAB
LAB
NAT

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68

Otaki
Hauraki-Waikato
Nelson
Invercargill
Rotorua
Wairarapa
Rimutaka
Tukituki
Manurewa
Dunedin North
Hamilton West
Kelston
Papakura
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
New Lynn
Whanganui
Epsom
West Coast Tasman
Christchurch East
Waiariki
Dunedin South
Napier
Te Tai Tonga
Wigram
Te Atatu
Waimakariri
Christchurch Central
Maungakiekie
Port Hills
Palmerston North
Te Tai Hauauru
Tamaki Makaurau
Te Tai Tokerau

69
70
71

Ohariu
Hutt South
Auckland Central

7,782
7,695
7,605
7,482
7,418
6,771
6,664
6,490
6,402
5,917
5,784
5,367
5,119
4,673
4,557
4,505
4,250
4,094
4,073
3,889
3,858
3,850
3,554
3,330
2,813
2,506
2,420
2,348
2,228
2,212
1,554
1,462
1,053

NAT
LAB
NAT
NAT
NAT
NAT
LAB
NAT
LAB
LAB
NAT
LAB
NAT
LAB
LAB
NAT
ACT
LAB
LAB
MAO
LAB
LAB
LAB
LAB
LAB
NAT
NAT
NAT
LAB
LAB
LAB
MAO
LAB

710
709
600

UFNZ
LAB
NAT

National has the top 13 majorities. William Sua Sio for Labour in Mangere is the 14th. Labours biggest majority
outside South Auckland is Mt Albert in 25th place.
There are 26 (+3) majorities over 10,000 23 National, and three Labour.
Of the 12 majorities below 3,000 four are National held, six are Labour held, one is Maori Party held and one
is United held.
The median majority is Otaki on 7,782.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 20 -

LABOUR 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Mangere
Manukau East
Manurewa
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Hauraki-Waikato
Te Tai Hauauru
Kelston
Tamaki Makaurau
Waiariki
Te Tai Tonga
New Lynn
Mt Roskill
Te Tai Tokerau
Maungakiekie
Te Atatu
Mana
Dunedin South
Rimutaka
Christchurch East
Dunedin North
Palmerston North
Rongotai
Mt Albert
Wigram
Hutt South
Christchurch Central
Napier
Papakura
Hamilton West
Whanganui
Invercargill
Otaki
Nelson
Port Hills
Wellington Central
Hamilton East

67.6%
63.7%
53.0%
48.1%
46.5%
42.2%
42.1%
40.8%
38.8%
36.9%
36.1%
35.6%
35.5%
35.3%
35.0%
34.4%
33.3%
32.9%
32.2%
31.8%
31.0%
30.5%
29.5%
28.7%
28.0%
26.3%
26.0%
25.9%
25.7%
25.5%
25.1%
24.8%
24.7%
23.9%
23.8%
23.8%

37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

West Coast Tasman

Ohariu
Upper Harbour
Tukituki
East Coast
Rangitata
Botany
Northcote
Auckland Central
Rotorua
New Plymouth
Wairarapa
Waimakariri
Taupo
Rangitikei
Waitaki
Whangarei
Ilam
Kaikoura
Northland
Pakuranga
Coromandel
Tamaki
Waikato
Clutha Southland
Tauranga
North Shore
Epsom
Taranaki-King
Country
Hunua
Bay of Plenty
Selwyn
Helensville
Rodney
East Coast Bays

23.5%
23.5%
23.5%
22.8%
22.7%
22.3%
22.3%
22.1%
21.7%
21.2%
21.2%
20.6%
19.0%
18.6%
18.5%
18.1%
17.9%
17.7%
17.1%
16.6%
16.0%
15.7%
14.8%
14.8%
14.7%
14.4%
14.2%
13.4%
13.4%
13.1%
13.1%
13.0%
12.5%
12.3%
12.1%

Mangere had the best party vote for Labour at 67.6% followed by Manukau East.
Labour got over 50% party vote in just three seats, and over 40% in just 8 seats. In 22 seats they got over
30%, and in 40 seats under 25%. They also got below 20% in 23 seats and below 15% in 13 seats.
Their median seat was Hamilton East at 23.8%.
The seat they did best in that National won was Maungakiekie at 35.3%.
West Coast Tasman had the lowest party vote of any seat they won. It was 37th with 23.5%, followed by
Wellington Central and Port Hills.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 21 -

LABOUR 2014 ELECTORATE VOTE PERCENTAGE

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Mangere
Manukau East
Hauraki-Waikato
Mt Albert
Mt Roskill
Mana
Manurewa
Rimutaka
Wellington Central
Kelston
New Lynn
Palmerston North
Rongotai
Dunedin South
Wigram
Te Atatu
Christchurch East
Dunedin North
West Coast Tasman
Port Hills
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Te Tai Tokerau
Hutt South
Auckland Central
Te Tai Tonga
Napier
Waimakariri
Maungakiekie
Te Tai Hauauru
Whanganui
Christchurch Central
Tamaki Makaurau
Hamilton West
Ohariu
Otaki
Tukituki

72.5%
69.5%
61.6%
58.7%
56.5%
54.8%
54.2%
53.0%
52.0%
50.9%
50.9%
50.1%
49.8%
49.1%
48.9%
48.7%
48.1%
47.4%
47.3%
46.4%
46.3%
44.7%
43.8%
43.6%
42.9%
42.7%
41.5%
41.3%
41.3%
40.7%
38.9%
38.3%
35.4%
34.9%
34.8%
34.2%

37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Rotorua
Nelson
New Plymouth
Papakura
Invercargill
East Coast
Northcote
Rangitikei
Waiariki
Hamilton East
Rangitata
Upper Harbour
Northland
Wairarapa
Ilam
Botany
Kaikoura
Pakuranga
Taupo
Waitaki
Clutha Southland
North Shore
Waikato
Whangarei
Bay of Plenty
Hunua
Taranaki-King Country
Tauranga
Tamaki
Helensville
East Coast Bays
Coromandel
Rodney
Selwyn
Epsom

34.0%
33.1%
31.9%
31.4%
29.9%
29.4%
29.0%
27.8%
27.3%
27.2%
26.9%
26.6%
25.9%
25.6%
23.5%
23.4%
22.9%
22.5%
20.8%
20.2%
19.8%
19.3%
19.3%
19.2%
18.5%
17.9%
17.0%
16.1%
14.3%
12.8%
12.1%
11.3%
11.1%
10.9%
9.4%

Mangere had the highest electorate vote for Labour at 72.5% followed by Manukau East at 69.5%.
Labour received over 50% of the EV in 12 (-1) seats.
Their median seat was Tukituki at 34.2%.
Their lowest percentage for a seat which they won was Tamaki Makaurau at 38.3%, Te Tai Hauauru 31.4%
and then Napier at 2.7%. Conversely their best result in a seat they did not win was Auckland Central at
43.6%.
Their worst seat was Epsom at 9.4% and then Selwyn at 10.9%. In 21 seats their candidate got under 25%.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 22 -

LABOUR 2014 ELECTORATE VOTE/PARTY VOTE

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

Waimakariri
Wellington
Central
Auckland
Central
West Coast
Tasman
Mt Albert
Port Hills
Wigram
Napier
Rongotai
Palmerston
North
Rimutaka
Rotorua
Whanganui
Mana
Mt Roskill
Hutt South
Northland
New Plymouth
Rangitikei
Tukituki
Christchurch
East
Dunedin North
Ohariu
Christchurch
Central
Dunedin South
Bay of Plenty
Pakuranga
New Lynn
Otaki
Te Atatu
Hamilton West
Hunua
North Shore
Clutha
Southland

EV/PV
219.1%

EV
41.5%

PV
19.0%

218.2%

52.0%

23.8%

201.4%

43.6%

21.7%

201.0%
199.3%
194.6%
170.7%
164.6%
163.3%

47.3%
58.7%
46.4%
48.9%
42.7%
49.8%

23.5%
0.295
23.9%
28.7%
26.0%
30.5%

161.7%
161.2%
160.7%
159.5%
159.4%
158.6%
156.5%
155.7%
150.9%
150.2%
149.5%

50.1%
53.0%
34.0%
40.7%
54.8%
56.5%
43.8%
25.9%
31.9%
27.8%
34.2%

31.0%
32.9%
21.2%
25.5%
34.4%
35.6%
28.0%
16.6%
21.2%
18.5%
22.8%

149.5%
149.0%
148.6%

48.1%
47.4%
34.9%

32.2%
31.8%
23.5%

148.3%
147.5%
141.8%
141.0%
141.0%
140.3%
139.1%
137.9%
136.4%
136.0%

38.9%
49.1%
18.5%
22.5%
50.9%
34.8%
48.7%
35.4%
17.9%
19.3%

26.3%
0.333
13.1%
16.0%
36.1%
24.8%
35.0%
25.7%
13.1%
14.2%

134.8%

19.8%

0.147

35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Kaikoura
Nelson
Ilam
HaurakiWaikato
Northcote
Waikato
East Coast
Taranaki-King
Country
Te Tai Tokerau
Wairarapa
Papakura
Kelston
Rangitata
Invercargill
Maungakiekie
Te Tai Tonga
Hamilton East
Upper Harbour
Waitaki
Taupo
Tauranga
Manukau East
Whangarei
Mangere
Botany
Manurewa
Helensville
East Coast
Bays
Te Tai Hauauru
Tamaki
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Tamaki
Makaurau
Rodney
Selwyn
Coromandel
Waiariki
Epsom

134.2%
133.9%
133.0%

22.9%
33.1%
23.5%

17.1%
24.7%
17.7%

132.4%
131.4%
130.7%
129.2%

61.6%
29.0%
19.3%
29.4%

46.5%
22.1%
14.8%
22.7%

127.0%
126.1%
124.1%
121.1%
120.8%
120.8%
119.1%
117.1%
116.3%
114.4%
113.5%
111.9%
111.7%
111.7%
109.2%
107.5%
107.3%
104.9%
102.3%
101.9%

17.0%
44.7%
25.6%
31.4%
50.9%
26.9%
29.9%
41.3%
42.9%
27.2%
26.6%
20.2%
20.8%
16.1%
69.5%
19.2%
72.5%
23.4%
54.2%
12.8%

13.4%
35.5%
20.6%
25.9%
42.1%
22.3%
25.1%
35.3%
36.9%
23.8%
23.5%
0.181
18.6%
14.4%
63.7%
17.9%
0.676
22.3%
53.0%
0.125

100.0%
97.9%
96.7%
96.2%

12.1%
41.3%
14.3%
46.3%

12.1%
42.2%
0.148
48.1%

93.7%
90.0%
84.0%
72.2%
70.5%
70.3%

38.3%
11.1%
10.9%
11.3%
27.3%
9.4%

40.8%
12.3%
13.0%
15.7%
38.8%
13.4%

This shows how Labour did in the electorate vote relative to the party vote in each seat. At 100% it means
the electorate vote was exactly equal to the party vote.
Waimakariri is the seat where the candidate was most popular relative to the party vote at 219%. This was
followed by Wellington Central and Auckland Central at 218% and 201% respectively.
The median seat was Nelson at 133%.
The lowest ratio was in Epsom at 70%, Waiariki at 71%, Coromandel 72%.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 23 -

LABOUR 2014 ELECTORATE VOTE/LAB + GREEN PARTY VOTE

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Waimakariri
West Coast
Tasman
Rimutaka
Mt Roskill
Whanganui
Napier
Palmerston
North
Rotorua
Wigram
Mana
Mt Albert
Port Hills
Te Atatu
New Lynn
New Plymouth
Hauraki-Waikato
Tukituki
Dunedin South
Hutt South
Christchurch
East
Rangitikei
Hamilton West
Manukau East
Otaki
Mangere
Pakuranga
Papakura
Auckland Central
Te Tai Tokerau
Wellington
Central
Kelston
Manurewa
Hunua
Northland
Waikato

EV/PV
149.3%

EV
41.5%

PV
27.8%

129.5%
128.0%
124.8%
124.3%
123.0%

47.3%
53.0%
56.5%
40.7%
42.7%

36.5%
41.4%
45.3%
32.7%
34.7%

122.6%
121.8%
118.0%
116.1%
114.6%
113.4%
112.9%
110.3%
109.5%
109.4%
108.7%
107.7%
107.5%

50.1%
34.0%
48.9%
54.8%
58.7%
46.4%
48.7%
50.9%
31.9%
61.6%
34.2%
49.1%
43.8%

40.8%
27.9%
41.5%
47.2%
51.2%
41.0%
43.1%
46.1%
29.2%
56.3%
31.4%
45.6%
40.7%

107.3%
105.6%
104.5%
103.2%
101.6%
101.4%
100.9%
100.8%
99.5%
98.2%

48.1%
27.8%
35.4%
69.5%
34.8%
72.5%
22.5%
31.4%
43.6%
44.7%

44.8%
26.3%
33.9%
67.4%
34.3%
71.5%
22.3%
31.1%
43.8%
45.5%

97.4%
96.3%
95.1%
94.6%
94.2%
94.0%

52.0%
50.9%
54.2%
17.9%
25.9%
19.3%

53.4%
52.9%
57.0%
18.9%
27.5%
20.6%

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Christchurch
Central
Maungakiekie
East Coast
Invercargill
Bay of Plenty
Ohariu
Rangitata
Clutha Southland
Wairarapa
Botany
Rongotai
Upper Harbour
Kaikoura
Dunedin North
Northcote
Nelson
Taupo
Taranaki-King
Country
Te Tai Tonga
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Hamilton East
North Shore
Ilam
Te Tai Hauauru
Tauranga
Tamaki
Makaurau
Waitaki
Whangarei
Tamaki
East Coast Bays
Waiariki
Rodney
Helensville
Selwyn
Coromandel
Epsom

92.5%
92.4%
92.0%
91.5%
91.3%
90.6%
90.4%
88.4%
88.2%
87.7%
87.5%
87.4%
87.3%
86.6%
86.1%
85.1%
84.0%

38.9%
41.3%
29.4%
29.9%
18.5%
34.9%
26.9%
19.8%
25.6%
23.4%
49.8%
26.6%
22.9%
47.4%
29.0%
33.1%
20.8%

42.1%
44.8%
31.9%
32.6%
20.3%
38.6%
29.8%
22.4%
29.0%
26.6%
56.9%
30.5%
26.3%
54.8%
33.7%
38.8%
24.8%

82.5%
80.3%
79.1%
78.2%
77.6%
76.7%
76.3%
74.8%

17.0%
42.9%
46.3%
27.2%
19.3%
23.5%
41.3%
16.1%

20.6%
53.4%
58.5%
34.8%
24.9%
30.6%
54.2%
21.6%

72.7%
69.4%
69.4%
60.6%
59.6%
58.4%
53.2%
48.9%
45.6%
44.4%
36.4%

38.3%
20.2%
19.2%
14.3%
12.1%
27.3%
11.1%
12.8%
10.9%
11.3%
9.4%

52.7%
29.1%
27.7%
23.6%
20.4%
46.8%
20.8%
26.1%
23.9%
25.5%
25.9%

In this table we compare the Labour electorate vote to the combined party vote for Labour and Greens. This
removes the impact of Green voters who tactically voted for the Labour candidate to get a better idea of
which Labour candidates attracted support beyond the main left party vote.
Waimakariri is the seat where the candidate was most popular relative to the L/G party vote at 149%. This
was followed by West Coast Tasman and Rimutaka at 130% and 128% respectively.
In only 27 seats did the Labour candidate get more votes than the combined party vote for Labour and
Greens.
The median seat was Christchurch Central at 93%.
The lowest ratio was in Epsom at 36% and Coromandel at 44%.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 24 -

LABOUR PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Waiariki
Hauraki-Waikato
Kelston
Te Tai Tokerau
Te Tai Hauauru
Tauranga
Rotorua
Tamaki
Makaurau
Christchurch
East
Bay of Plenty
Port Hills
Northland
Dunedin North
East Coast
Auckland Central
Tukituki
Upper Harbour
Hamilton East
Dunedin South
Rodney
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Clutha Southland
Ilam
Botany
Christchurch
Central
Te Tai Tonga
Taupo
Taranaki-King
Country
Whanganui
Waikato
Tamaki
North Shore
Epsom
Papakura
Coromandel

Change
3.7%
2.2%
0.9%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%

2014
38.8%
46.5%
42.1%
35.5%
42.2%
14.4%
21.2%

2011
35.0%
44.3%
41.2%
34.7%
42.0%
14.4%
21.2%

-0.7%

40.8%

41.5%

-0.7%
-0.8%
-0.8%
-1.0%
-1.1%
-1.2%
-1.2%
-1.3%
-1.3%
-1.3%
-1.4%
-1.5%
-1.5%
-1.5%
-1.5%
-1.5%

32.2%
13.1%
23.9%
16.6%
31.8%
22.7%
21.7%
22.8%
23.5%
23.8%
33.3%
12.3%
48.1%
14.7%
17.7%
22.3%

32.8%
13.9%
24.7%
17.6%
32.9%
23.9%
22.9%
24.1%
24.8%
25.1%
34.7%
13.8%
49.6%
16.2%
19.2%
23.8%

-1.6%
-1.6%
-1.6%

26.3%
36.9%
18.6%

27.8%
38.5%
20.3%

-1.7%
-1.8%
-1.8%
-1.9%
-2.0%
-2.1%
-2.2%
-2.2%

13.4%
25.5%
14.8%
14.8%
14.2%
13.4%
25.9%
15.7%

15.0%
27.3%
16.6%
16.7%
16.2%
15.5%
28.1%
17.9%

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Selwyn
Te Atatu
Whangarei
Nelson
Hunua
Pakuranga
Wairarapa
Helensville
Wigram
Kaikoura
Northcote
Palmerston
North
Wellington
Central
Mt Albert
Napier
East Coast Bays
Rangitikei
Manukau East
Ohariu
Rimutaka
Mana
Hutt South
Waitaki
Maungakiekie
Invercargill
Rongotai
Waimakariri
West Coast
Tasman
Hamilton West
Mangere
New Plymouth
Manurewa
Otaki
Mt Roskill
Rangitata
New Lynn

-2.3%
-2.5%
-2.5%
-2.6%
-2.6%
-2.7%
-2.7%
-2.7%
-2.7%
-2.8%
-2.9%

13.0%
35.0%
17.9%
24.7%
13.1%
16.0%
20.6%
12.5%
28.7%
17.1%
22.1%

15.3%
37.5%
20.3%
27.3%
15.7%
18.6%
23.3%
15.2%
31.4%
19.9%
25.0%

-2.9%

31.0%

33.9%

-3.0%
-3.1%
-3.1%
-3.1%
-3.2%
-3.2%
-3.2%
-3.3%
-3.4%
-3.4%
-3.5%
-3.5%
-3.7%
-3.7%
-3.7%

23.8%
29.5%
26.0%
12.1%
18.5%
63.7%
23.5%
32.9%
34.4%
28.0%
18.1%
35.3%
25.1%
30.5%
19.0%

26.8%
32.6%
29.1%
15.3%
21.7%
66.9%
26.7%
36.2%
37.8%
31.4%
21.6%
38.8%
28.7%
34.2%
22.6%

-3.7%
-4.0%
-4.3%
-4.3%
-4.4%
-4.6%
-5.1%
-5.1%
-7.1%

23.5%
25.7%
67.6%
21.2%
53.0%
24.8%
35.6%
22.3%
36.1%

27.2%
29.6%
71.8%
25.4%
57.4%
29.5%
40.7%
27.4%
43.2%

Labour lost party vote in 65 of 71 seats. They increased it in Waiariki, Hauraki-Waikato, Kelston, Te Tai
Tokerau and Te Tai Hauauru.
Overall 25 seats had a party vote decrease of less than 2%, 24 seats had a decrease of or over 3%
The median change was in Selwyn on -2.3%
Labours largest drops were New Lynn, Rangitata and Mt Roskill.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 25 -

LABOUR ELECTORATE VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Te Tai Hauauru
Te Tai Tokerau
Mana
Port Hills
Auckland Central
Tukituki
Dunedin North
Northland
Rotorua
Wigram
Mt Roskill
Papakura
Whanganui
Hauraki-Waikato
Tamaki
Makaurau
Ilam
Clutha Southland
Tauranga
Waiariki
Mt Albert
Wellington
Central
Te Tai Tonga
Napier
Bay of Plenty
Hunua
Waikato
Pakuranga
Nelson
Dunedin South
Taupo
West Coast
Tasman
Northcote
Te Atatu
Rongotai
Ohariu
Maungakiekie

Change
11.5%
7.6%
6.2%
5.2%
5.0%
4.9%
4.4%
4.3%
3.6%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.4%
3.2%

2014
41.3%
44.7%
54.8%
46.4%
43.6%
34.2%
47.4%
25.9%
34.0%
48.9%
56.5%
31.4%
40.7%
61.6%

2011
29.8%
37.1%
48.6%
41.3%
38.7%
29.3%
43.0%
21.6%
30.4%
45.4%
53.0%
27.9%
37.3%
58.4%

3.2%
3.2%
3.1%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%

38.3%
23.5%
19.8%
16.1%
27.3%
58.7%

35.1%
20.3%
16.8%
13.3%
24.5%
56.0%

2.6%
2.3%
1.9%
1.6%
1.5%
0.9%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%

52.0%
42.9%
42.7%
18.5%
17.9%
19.3%
22.5%
33.1%
49.1%
20.8%

49.5%
40.6%
40.8%
16.9%
16.4%
18.5%
21.8%
32.6%
48.9%
20.7%

-0.2%
-0.4%
-0.5%
-0.7%
-0.7%
-0.9%

47.3%
29.0%
48.7%
49.8%
34.9%
41.3%

47.5%
29.5%
49.2%
50.5%
35.7%
42.3%

37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Rimutaka
Rangitikei
Palmerston
North
North Shore
Taranaki-King
Country
Epsom
Botany
Hutt South
Upper Harbour
East Coast
Kelston
Otaki
Kaikoura
Rodney
Selwyn
Whangarei
Waimakariri
Mangere
Waitaki
Tamaki
Hamilton West
Hamilton East
Invercargill
East Coast Bays
Christchurch
Central
Coromandel
Wairarapa
New Lynn
Christchurch
East
Helensville
New Plymouth
Manukau East
Manurewa
Rangitata
Ikaroa-Rawhiti

-1.1%
-1.2%

53.0%
27.8%

54.1%
29.0%

-1.2%
-1.2%

50.1%
19.3%

51.3%
20.6%

-1.2%
-1.3%
-1.3%
-1.5%
-1.8%
-2.5%
-2.6%
-2.7%
-2.8%
-3.0%
-3.2%
-3.3%
-3.4%
-3.4%
-3.8%
-4.0%
-4.1%
-4.9%
-4.9%
-5.3%

17.0%
9.4%
23.4%
43.8%
26.6%
29.4%
50.9%
34.8%
22.9%
11.1%
10.9%
19.2%
41.5%
72.5%
20.2%
14.3%
35.4%
27.2%
29.9%
12.1%

18.2%
10.7%
24.7%
45.3%
28.4%
31.9%
53.5%
37.6%
25.7%
14.1%
14.1%
22.4%
44.9%
75.9%
24.1%
18.3%
39.5%
32.1%
34.8%
17.5%

-5.4%
-5.9%
-6.1%
-6.1%

38.9%
11.3%
25.6%
50.9%

44.3%
17.3%
31.6%
57.0%

-7.1%
-7.4%
-7.6%
-7.8%
-9.0%
-11.0%
-14.4%

48.1%
12.8%
31.9%
69.5%
54.2%
26.9%
46.3%

55.2%
20.2%
39.5%
77.4%
63.3%
37.9%
60.7%

Labours increased the electorate vote in 30 seats. The biggest were Te Tai Hauauru, Te Tai Tokerau, Mana
and Port Hills..
The median change was Maungakiekie on -0.9%.
Labour lost EV in 41 seats. The biggest drops were 14.4% in Ikaroa-Rawhiti, 11.05 in Rangitata, 9.0% in
Manurewa and 7.8% in Manukau East.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 26 -

GREENS 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Wellington Central
Rongotai
Dunedin North
Auckland Central
Mt Albert
Port Hills
Te Tai Tonga
Christchurch Central
Ohariu
Nelson
Helensville
West Coast Tasman
Ilam
Wigram
Mana
Hutt South
Christchurch East
Epsom
Dunedin South
Te Tai Hauauru
Tamaki Makaurau
Northcote
Waitaki
Hamilton East
Selwyn
Northland
Kelston
North Shore
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Te Tai Tokerau
New Lynn
Palmerston North
Coromandel
Whangarei
Hauraki-Waikato
Mt Roskill

29.6%
26.4%
22.9%
22.2%
21.8%
17.1%
16.5%
15.8%
15.1%
14.1%
13.6%
13.0%
13.0%
12.8%
12.8%
12.7%
12.7%
12.5%
12.3%
11.9%
11.8%
11.6%
11.1%
11.0%
10.9%
10.8%
10.7%
10.7%
10.4%
10.1%
10.0%
9.9%
9.8%
9.8%
9.8%
9.7%

37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Otaki
Maungakiekie
East Coast
Kaikoura
Waimakariri
Tamaki
Napier
Tukituki
Rodney
Rimutaka
Wairarapa
East Coast Bays
Hamilton West
Te Atatu
Waiariki
New Plymouth
Rangitikei
Clutha Southland
Invercargill
Rangitata
Bay of Plenty
Whanganui
Taranaki-King Country
Tauranga
Upper Harbour
Rotorua
Pakuranga
Taupo
Hunua
Waikato
Papakura
Botany
Manurewa
Mangere
Manukau East

9.5%
9.5%
9.2%
9.2%
8.9%
8.8%
8.8%
8.6%
8.5%
8.5%
8.4%
8.2%
8.2%
8.1%
8.1%
8.0%
7.8%
7.7%
7.6%
7.5%
7.2%
7.2%
7.2%
7.1%
7.0%
6.7%
6.3%
6.1%
5.8%
5.8%
5.2%
4.4%
4.0%
4.0%
3.7%

The Greens again did exceptionally well in Wellington achieving 29.6% in Wellington Central (beating Labour
in the party vote) and 26.4% in Rongotai. Also above 20% was Dunedin North, Auckland Central and Mt
Albert.
In nine seats they got over 15%, and in 31 seats, over 10%.
Their median seat was Mt Roskill on 9.7%. This is less than their average of 10.6% so their stronger seats
drags them up.
Their worst seats were Manukau East and Mangere. They were below 5% in four seats.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 27 -

GREEN PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Rongotai
Tamaki
Makaurau
Mt Roskill
Wellington
Central
Te Tai Tokerau
Mt Albert
New Lynn
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Te Tai Hauauru
HaurakiWaikato
Te Tai Tonga
Northcote
Helensville
Auckland
Central
Epsom
Port Hills
Maungakiekie
Waimakariri
Manukau East
Christchurch
East
Ohariu
Upper Harbour
Wigram
Dunedin North
Pakuranga
Mangere
Tamaki
Rodney
Manurewa
Mana
East Coast
Bays
Botany
Hutt South
North Shore
Papakura

Change
2.2%

2014
26.4%

2011
24.2%

2.1%
1.9%

11.8%
9.7%

9.7%
7.8%

1.7%
1.4%
1.3%
1.3%
1.1%
0.8%

29.6%
10.1%
21.8%
10.0%
10.4%
11.9%

27.9%
8.6%
20.5%
8.8%
9.4%
11.2%

0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%

9.8%
16.5%
11.6%
13.6%

9.0%
15.8%
10.9%
13.0%

0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%

22.2%
12.5%
17.1%
9.5%
8.9%
3.7%

21.7%
12.1%
16.7%
9.1%
8.5%
3.3%

0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

12.7%
15.1%
7.0%
12.8%
22.9%
6.3%
4.0%
8.8%
8.5%
4.0%
12.8%

12.4%
14.8%
6.8%
12.6%
22.8%
6.2%
3.8%
8.7%
8.5%
3.9%
12.8%

-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.2%
-0.2%

8.2%
4.4%
12.7%
10.7%
5.2%

8.3%
4.4%
12.9%
10.9%
5.4%

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Otaki
Te Atatu
Ilam
Rangitata
Palmerston
North
Hamilton West
Selwyn
Waiariki
East Coast
Waitaki
Whangarei
Invercargill
Clutha
Southland
Christchurch
Central
Northland
Hunua
Rimutaka
Napier
Taranaki-King
Country
Tukituki
Hamilton East
West Coast
Tasman
Dunedin South
Kelston
Waikato
Taupo
Coromandel
Wairarapa
Tauranga
Whanganui
Rangitikei
New Plymouth
Rotorua
Nelson
Kaikoura
Bay of Plenty

The Greens gained support in 30 seats and lost support in 41 seats.

Their biggest increases were Rongotai and Tamaki Makaurau.
The median change was Te Atatu on -0.3%.
The biggest decrease were Bay of Plenty, Kaikoura, Nelson and Rotorua.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

-0.2%
-0.3%
-0.5%
-0.6%

9.5%
8.1%
13.0%
7.5%

9.7%
8.4%
13.4%
8.1%

-0.6%
-0.7%
-0.8%
-0.8%
-0.8%
-0.8%
-0.8%
-0.8%

9.9%
8.2%
10.9%
8.1%
9.2%
11.1%
9.8%
7.6%

10.5%
8.9%
11.7%
8.8%
10.0%
11.9%
10.6%
8.4%

-0.9%

7.7%

8.6%

-0.9%
-0.9%
-1.0%
-1.0%
-1.0%

15.8%
10.8%
5.8%
8.5%
8.8%

16.7%
11.8%
6.8%
9.5%
9.8%

-1.1%
-1.1%
-1.1%

7.2%
8.6%
11.0%

8.3%
9.7%
12.2%

-1.2%
-1.2%
-1.2%
-1.3%
-1.4%
-1.4%
-1.5%
-1.5%
-1.5%
-1.5%
-1.6%
-1.9%
-1.9%
-1.9%
-2.0%

13.0%
12.3%
10.7%
5.8%
6.1%
9.8%
8.4%
7.1%
7.2%
7.8%
8.0%
6.7%
14.1%
9.2%
7.2%

14.2%
13.5%
11.9%
7.1%
7.6%
11.3%
9.8%
8.6%
8.7%
9.4%
9.6%
8.6%
16.0%
11.1%
9.3%

- 28 -

NZ FIRST 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Te Tai Tokerau
Tauranga
Tamaki Makaurau
Bay of Plenty
Whangarei
Hauraki-Waikato
Te Tai Tonga
Northland
Waiariki
Coromandel
Rotorua
Whanganui
East Coast
Te Tai Hauauru
Wairarapa
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Rangitikei
Invercargill
Hamilton West
Papakura
Waikato
Taupo
Rimutaka
Otaki
Kaikoura
Hunua
Manurewa
Taranaki-King Country
Christchurch East
Dunedin South
Rodney
New Plymouth
West Coast Tasman
Palmerston North
Wigram
Waimakariri

14.6%
14.5%
14.1%
13.9%
13.4%
13.4%
12.9%
12.8%
12.7%
12.5%
12.2%
12.0%
11.8%
11.8%
11.7%
11.4%
11.3%
11.2%
10.8%
10.8%
10.8%
10.3%
10.3%
10.0%
9.9%
9.6%
9.5%
9.5%
9.4%
9.1%
9.1%
9.0%
8.7%
8.7%
8.6%
8.5%

37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Kelston
Te Atatu
Rangitata
Manukau East
Nelson
Tukituki
Hutt South
Napier
Helensville
Mangere
Northcote
Christchurch Central
New Lynn
Hamilton East
Pakuranga
Waitaki
Selwyn
Upper Harbour
Mana
Dunedin North
Port Hills
Maungakiekie
Clutha Southland
East Coast Bays
North Shore
Rongotai
Botany
Mt Roskill
Auckland Central
Ilam
Ohariu
Tamaki
Mt Albert
Wellington Central
Epsom

8.5%
8.4%
7.9%
7.8%
7.7%
7.6%
7.5%
7.4%
7.4%
7.3%
7.3%
7.2%
7.2%
7.1%
7.1%
7.0%
7.0%
6.9%
6.8%
6.7%
6.6%
6.6%
6.2%
6.0%
5.8%
5.4%
5.4%
5.3%
5.2%
5.1%
4.8%
4.4%
4.1%
3.6%
3.5%

24 (+17) seats got into double digits for NZ First. In total 66 out of 71 seats had NZ First over the 5%
threshold.
Their median seat was Waimakariri at 8.5%.
Their lowest support was in central city seats such as Epsom and Wellington Central at 3.5% and 3.6%.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 29 -

NZ FIRST PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Te Tai Tokerau
Invercargill
Te Tai Tonga
Rangitikei
Wairarapa
Te Tai Hauauru
Rimutaka
Whangarei
Tamaki
Makaurau
Kaikoura
Hamilton West
Christchurch
East
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Palmerston
North
West Coast
Tasman
New Plymouth
Northland
East Coast
Christchurch
Central
Waikato
Waimakariri
Whanganui
Taranaki-King
Country
Hunua
Wigram
Papakura
Nelson
Kelston
Helensville
Manurewa
Rangitata
Dunedin South
Mana
Selwyn
Port Hills

Change
4.7%
4.3%
4.1%
4.0%
3.9%
3.8%
3.8%
3.7%

2014
14.6%
11.2%
12.9%
11.3%
11.7%
11.8%
10.3%
13.4%

2011
9.9%
6.8%
8.8%
7.3%
7.8%
7.9%
6.5%
9.7%

3.7%
3.3%
3.3%

14.1%
9.9%
10.8%

10.4%
6.6%
7.6%

3.2%
3.1%

9.4%
11.4%

6.3%
8.3%

3.0%

8.7%

5.7%

3.0%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%

8.7%
9.0%
12.8%
11.8%

5.7%
6.4%
10.2%
9.3%

2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%

7.2%
10.8%
8.5%
12.0%

4.7%
8.3%
6.0%
9.5%

2.4%
2.4%
2.3%
2.3%
2.2%
2.2%
2.2%
2.1%
2.1%
2.0%
2.0%
1.9%
1.9%

9.5%
9.6%
8.6%
10.8%
7.7%
8.5%
7.4%
9.5%
7.9%
9.1%
6.8%
7.0%
6.6%

7.0%
7.2%
6.2%
8.6%
5.4%
6.2%
5.2%
7.4%
5.8%
7.1%
4.8%
5.0%
4.7%

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Hutt South
Taupo
Rodney
Napier
Otaki
Te Atatu
Rotorua
Waitaki
Tukituki
Upper Harbour
Waiariki
Northcote
Hamilton East
Manukau East
Mangere
Coromandel
Pakuranga
Clutha
Southland
Maungakiekie
East Coast
Bays
Bay of Plenty
Ilam
Botany
Dunedin North
Rongotai
North Shore
Ohariu
Epsom
Mt Roskill
Wellington
Central
Tamaki
New Lynn
Auckland
Central
Mt Albert
HaurakiWaikato
Tauranga

NZ First gained party vote in 70 of 71 seats.

Their biggest increase was Te Tai Tokerau and Invercargill.
The median increase was Hutt South at 1.9%
Their only decrease was Tauranga at -0.2%.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%

7.5%
10.3%
9.1%
7.4%
10.0%
8.4%
12.2%
7.0%
7.6%
6.9%
12.7%
7.3%
7.1%
7.8%
7.3%
12.5%
7.1%

5.6%
8.4%
7.2%
5.5%
8.1%
6.5%
10.4%
5.2%
5.9%
5.2%
10.9%
5.6%
5.5%
6.2%
5.9%
11.0%
5.7%

1.3%
1.3%

6.2%
6.6%

4.9%
5.3%

1.3%
1.2%
1.2%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
0.8%

6.0%
13.9%
5.1%
5.4%
6.7%
5.4%
5.8%
4.8%
3.5%
5.3%

4.7%
12.7%
4.0%
4.4%
5.7%
4.4%
4.9%
3.8%
2.6%
4.5%

0.7%
0.7%
0.6%

3.6%
4.4%
7.2%

2.9%
3.7%
6.5%

0.4%
0.3%

5.2%
4.1%

4.7%
3.8%

0.1%
-0.2%

13.4%
14.5%

13.3%
14.7%

- 30 -

CONSERVATIVE 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Rodney
East Coast Bays
Tukituki
Northland
Napier
Rangitikei
Tauranga
Waikato
Taranaki-King Country
Bay of Plenty
Pakuranga
Nelson
Coromandel
Whangarei
West Coast Tasman
Clutha Southland
Hunua
Whanganui
Upper Harbour
Hamilton East
Helensville
Taupo
Hamilton West
Kaikoura
Botany
Palmerston North
Otaki
Waitaki
Rangitata
North Shore
Wairarapa
Waimakariri
Northcote
Papakura
East Coast
Rimutaka

6.8%
6.7%
6.6%
6.3%
6.2%
6.1%
5.8%
5.7%
5.7%
5.7%
5.6%
5.5%
5.3%
5.2%
5.1%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
4.8%
4.8%
4.8%
4.8%
4.7%
4.7%
4.5%
4.5%
4.4%
4.4%
4.4%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.1%
4.1%
4.0%

37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Rotorua
Te Atatu
New Lynn
Ilam
Invercargill
Mt Roskill
Wigram
Hutt South
Selwyn
Christchurch East
New Plymouth
Maungakiekie
Port Hills
Christchurch Central
Mangere
Tamaki
Ohariu
Kelston
Dunedin South
Manurewa
Dunedin North
Mana
Epsom
Manukau East
Mt Albert
Auckland Central
Rongotai
Wellington Central
Hauraki-Waikato
Te Tai Tonga
Te Tai Tokerau
Tamaki Makaurau
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Te Tai Hauauru
Waiariki

4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.6%
3.6%
3.5%
3.3%
3.2%
3.2%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.0%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.5%
2.1%
2.0%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%

Conservatives highest party vote was in Rodney at 6.8%. East Coast Bays at 6.7% and Tukituki at 6.6%.
They got over 5% party vote in 18 seats.
Their median seat was Rimutaka on 4.0%.
The Maori seats were their worse seats followed by Wellington Central, Rongotai and Auckland Central.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 31 -

CONSERVATIVE PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

East Coast
Bays
Napier
Nelson
Tukituki
North Shore
Pakuranga
Rangitata
West Coast
Tasman
Clutha
Southland
Rangitikei
Taranaki-King
Country
Botany
Northcote
Waikato
Invercargill
Bay of Plenty
Whanganui
Ilam
Tauranga
Waitaki
Hamilton West
Tamaki
Upper Harbour
Hutt South
Maungakiekie
Palmerston
North
Dunedin South
Mangere
Ohariu
Mt Roskill
Coromandel
Helensville
Epsom
Rimutaka
Hamilton East
Port Hills

Change

2014

2011

3.1%
2.9%
2.8%
2.8%
2.1%
2.0%
2.0%

6.7%
6.2%
5.5%
6.6%
4.3%
5.6%
4.4%

3.6%
3.4%
2.7%
3.8%
2.2%
3.5%
2.4%

1.9%

5.1%

3.2%

1.9%
1.9%

5.0%
6.1%

3.1%
4.2%

1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%

5.7%
4.5%
4.3%
5.7%
3.7%
5.7%
5.0%
3.7%
5.8%
4.4%
4.7%
3.1%
4.8%
3.6%
3.2%

3.8%
2.7%
2.5%
4.0%
2.0%
4.0%
3.4%
2.1%
4.2%
2.8%
3.1%
1.5%
3.3%
2.1%
1.7%

1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%

4.5%
2.9%
3.1%
3.0%
3.7%
5.3%
4.8%
2.5%
4.0%
4.8%
3.1%

3.0%
1.5%
1.6%
1.6%
2.3%
3.9%
3.4%
1.1%
2.7%
3.5%
1.8%

37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

New Plymouth
Hunua
Dunedin North
Wigram
Otaki
Christchurch
East
Papakura
Christchurch
Central
Taupo
Te Atatu
Northland
Selwyn
Waimakariri
Whangarei
Rotorua
East Coast
Mana
New Lynn
Kelston
Kaikoura
Wellington
Central
Auckland
Central
Mt Albert
Manukau East
Wairarapa
Manurewa
Rongotai
Rodney
Te Tai Hauauru
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Te Tai Tokerau
Tamaki
Makaurau
Te Tai Tonga
Waiariki
HaurakiWaikato

Conservatives gained party vote in all 71 seats.

Their biggest increase was East Coast Bays and Napier.
The median increase was Port Hills at 1.3%
The smallest increase was the Maori seats.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.2%
1.2%

3.2%
5.0%
2.7%
3.6%
4.4%

1.9%
3.8%
1.5%
2.4%
3.2%

1.2%
1.2%

3.3%
4.1%

2.0%
3.0%

1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%

3.1%
4.8%
3.8%
6.3%
3.5%
4.3%
5.2%
4.0%
4.1%
2.7%
3.7%
3.0%
4.7%

2.0%
3.7%
2.7%
5.2%
2.5%
3.3%
4.2%
3.0%
3.1%
1.8%
2.8%
2.1%
3.8%

0.8%

1.5%

0.7%

0.8%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%

1.7%
2.0%
2.1%
4.3%
2.8%
1.6%
6.8%
0.6%
0.6%
0.7%

0.9%
1.3%
1.5%
3.8%
2.3%
1.1%
6.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.5%

0.1%
0.1%
0.0%

0.6%
0.7%
0.4%

0.5%
0.7%
0.3%

0.0%

0.8%

0.7%

- 32 -

MAORI PARTY 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Waiariki
Te Tai Hauauru
Tamaki Makaurau
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Hauraki-Waikato
Te Tai Tonga
Te Tai Tokerau
Rotorua
East Coast
Taupo
Wellington Central
Manurewa
Hamilton East
Mana
Rongotai
Tauranga
Northland
Whanganui
Ohariu
Bay of Plenty
Hamilton West
Rangitikei
Auckland Central
Wairarapa
Taranaki-King Country
Waikato
Helensville
Maungakiekie
Whangarei
Hutt South
New Plymouth
Tukituki
Papakura
Coromandel
Mt Albert
Ilam

22.0%
17.6%
12.8%
12.4%
12.0%
11.3%
10.2%
1.4%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%

37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Palmerston North
Tamaki
Wigram
Epsom
Northcote
Christchurch Central
Mangere
North Shore
Otaki
Napier
Te Atatu
Rimutaka
Hunua
Port Hills
Christchurch East
Mt Roskill
East Coast Bays
Rodney
Upper Harbour
Kaikoura
New Lynn
Dunedin North
Clutha Southland
Nelson
Invercargill
Manukau East
Pakuranga
Selwyn
Kelston
West Coast Tasman
Waimakariri
Waitaki
Rangitata
Dunedin South
Botany

0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%

As expected the Maori Party did best amongst the seven Maori seats. They had considerable variation
though ranging from 22.0% in Waiariki to 10.2% in Te Tai Tokerau.
Their next best seat was Rotorua on 1.4%.
Their median seat was Ilam on 0.5%.
Their worst seat was Botany on 0.2%.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 33 -

MAORI PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Waiariki
Rotorua
Taupo
Christchurch
East
Wellington
Central
Wigram
Tauranga
Coromandel
Manurewa
Hamilton East
Bay of Plenty
Christchurch
Central
Rodney
East Coast Bays
Helensville
Hamilton West
Waimakariri
Ohariu
Ilam
New Lynn
Pakuranga
Palmerston
North
Mana
Mt Roskill
Dunedin North
Dunedin South
Tamaki
Port Hills
Hutt South
Selwyn
Wairarapa
Papakura
Rongotai
East Coast
Waikato

Change
0.8%
0.2%
0.2%

2014
22.0%
1.4%
0.8%

2011
21.2%
1.3%
0.7%

0.1%

0.4%

0.3%

0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

0.8%
0.5%
0.6%
0.5%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%

0.7%
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.3%
0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%

0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.3%
0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%

0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.5%
0.3%
0.6%
0.5%
0.6%
0.9%
0.5%

0.5%
0.7%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.6%
0.6%
0.7%
1.0%
0.6%

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Maungakiekie
Botany
Kaikoura
Whangarei
Mangere
New Plymouth
Rangitata
Northcote
Clutha Southland
Otaki
Whanganui
Waitaki
Nelson
Hunua
West Coast
Tasman
Taranaki-King
Country
North Shore
Epsom
Rimutaka
Kelston
Manukau East
Invercargill
Upper Harbour
Napier
Te Atatu
Northland
Rangitikei
Tukituki
Mt Albert
Hauraki-Waikato
Te Tai Tokerau
Auckland Central
Tamaki
Makaurau
Te Tai Tonga
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Te Tai Hauauru

The Maori Party increased their vote in 26 seats and declined in 45 seats.
Their largest increase was Waiariki on 0.8%.
Their median decrease was Maungakiekie on -0.1%.
Their biggest decrease was Te Tai Hauauru on -3.4%.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%

0.5%
0.2%
0.4%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.5%
0.3%
0.4%
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%

0.6%
0.3%
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.6%
0.4%
0.5%
0.7%
0.4%
0.5%
0.5%

-0.1%

0.3%

0.4%

-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.3%
-0.4%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.0%

0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
12.0%
10.2%
0.6%

0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.6%
0.6%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.9%
12.4%
11.2%
1.6%

-1.6%
-2.2%
-2.6%
-3.4%

12.8%
11.3%
12.4%
17.6%

14.4%
13.5%
15.0%
21.1%

- 34 -

MANA PARTY 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Te Tai Tokerau
Waiariki
Tamaki Makaurau
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Hauraki-Waikato
Te Tai Hauauru
Te Tai Tonga
Auckland Central
Dunedin North
Northland
Mt Albert
Wellington Central
Rongotai
Kelston
Mangere
East Coast
Te Atatu
Manurewa
New Lynn
Maungakiekie
Whangarei
Manukau East
Christchurch Central
Hamilton East
Palmerston North
Mana
Helensville
Northcote
Mt Roskill
Christchurch East
Rimutaka
Upper Harbour
Nelson
Epsom
Dunedin South
Rotorua

18.7%
11.4%
10.8%
9.9%
8.1%
6.8%
5.0%
2.0%
1.7%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
1.2%
1.2%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%

37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Papakura
Wigram
West Coast Tasman
Port Hills
Whanganui
Hutt South
Hamilton West
Tamaki
New Plymouth
Ohariu
Coromandel
Tukituki
East Coast Bays
Ilam
North Shore
Otaki
Pakuranga
Invercargill
Botany
Napier
Rangitikei
Rodney
Taranaki-King Country
Taupo
Selwyn
Bay of Plenty
Waikato
Tauranga
Hunua
Clutha Southland
Kaikoura
Wairarapa
Waitaki
Rangitata
Waimakariri

0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%

As expected the Mana Party did best amongst the seven Maori seats. They had considerable variation
though ranging from 18.7% in Te Tai Tokerau to 5.0% in Te Tai Tonga.
Their next best seats were Auckland Central and Dunedin North on.2.0% and 1.7%. In 28 seats they got
over 1%.
Their median seat was Rotorua on 0.8%.
Their worst seats were Waimakariri and Rangitata on 0.4%.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 35 -

MANA PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

Auckland Central
Dunedin North
Mt Albert
Rongotai
Kelston
Wellington
Central
Hamilton East
Christchurch
Central
New Lynn
Palmerston
North
Mt Roskill
Maungakiekie
Helensville
Nelson
Dunedin South
Northcote
Hauraki-Waikato
Christchurch
East
Upper Harbour
Te Atatu
Rimutaka
Epsom
Wigram
Whanganui
Ilam
Port Hills
East Coast Bays
Pakuranga
West Coast
Tasman
North Shore
New Plymouth
Mana
Tamaki
Ohariu

Change
1.4%
1.1%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%

2014
2.0%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%

2011
0.6%
0.6%
0.7%
0.5%
0.5%

0.8%
0.7%

1.5%
1.0%

0.7%
0.3%

0.7%
0.7%

1.0%
1.1%

0.3%
0.4%

0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%

1.0%
0.9%
1.1%
1.0%
0.8%
0.8%
1.0%
8.1%

0.3%
0.2%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
7.4%

0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%

0.9%
0.9%
1.1%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%

0.3%
0.2%
0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%

0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%

0.8%
0.6%
0.7%
1.0%
0.7%
0.7%

0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.5%
0.2%
0.2%

35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Otaki
Rodney
Hutt South
Coromandel
Invercargill
Northland
Rangitikei
Botany
Selwyn
Whangarei
Napier
Hamilton West
Tukituki
Kaikoura
East Coast
Tauranga
Clutha Southland
Rangitata
Waimakariri
Taranaki-King
Country
Manurewa
Waitaki
Papakura
Hunua
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Bay of Plenty
Wairarapa
Waikato
Mangere
Taupo
Manukau East
Rotorua
Te Tai Tonga
Te Tai Hauauru
Tamaki
Makaurau
Waiariki
Te Tai Tokerau

The Mana Party increased their vote in 65 seats and declined in six seats.
Their largest increase was Auckland Central by 1.4% and Dunedin North 1.1%.
Their median increase was Rodney on +0.4%.
The five biggest decreases were in the Maori seats.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%

0.6%
0.6%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
1.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
1.0%
0.6%
0.7%
0.7%
0.5%
1.2%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%

0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
1.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.7%
0.2%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.9%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%

0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
-0.1%
-1.0%
-1.4%

0.6%
1.1%
0.4%
0.8%
0.5%
9.9%
0.5%
0.4%
0.5%
1.2%
0.5%
1.0%
0.8%
5.0%
6.8%

0.3%
0.9%
0.1%
0.5%
0.2%
9.6%
0.3%
0.2%
0.3%
1.0%
0.4%
1.0%
0.9%
5.9%
8.2%

-2.9%
-5.2%
-5.7%

10.8%
11.4%
18.7%

13.7%
16.6%
24.5%

- 36 -

ACT 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Pakuranga
Epsom
Botany
Mt Roskill
East Coast Bays
Northcote
New Lynn
Maungakiekie
North Shore
Tamaki
Te Atatu
Upper Harbour
Auckland Central
Wigram
Kelston
Ilam
Mt Albert
Hunua
Helensville
Hamilton East
Wellington Central
Manukau East
Ohariu
Hutt South
Papakura
Manurewa
Whangarei
Waikato
Palmerston North
Rodney
Christchurch Central
Hamilton West
Whanganui
New Plymouth
Rangitata
Northland

3.0%
2.7%
2.4%
1.8%
1.8%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.2%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%

37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Port Hills
Rotorua
Tukituki
Nelson
Kaikoura
Selwyn
Rangitikei
Coromandel
Tauranga
Taranaki-King Country
Clutha Southland
Rimutaka
Dunedin South
Wairarapa
Invercargill
Christchurch East
Dunedin North
Rongotai
Otaki
Napier
Waitaki
West Coast Tasman
Taupo
Mangere
Bay of Plenty
East Coast
Waimakariri
Mana
Hauraki-Waikato
Tamaki Makaurau
Te Tai Tonga
Te Tai Tokerau
Te Tai Hauauru
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Waiariki

Acts highest party vote was in Pakuranga where Jamie Whyte stood at 3.0%.
They got over 1.2% party vote (enough for a second MP) in 13 seats.
Their median seat was Northland on 0.5%.
The Maori seats were their worst seats followed by Mana.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%

- 37 -

ACT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

Pakuranga
Botany
Mt Roskill
New Lynn
Wigram
Te Atatu
Kelston
Maungakiekie
Upper Harbour
Epsom
Manukau East
Northcote
East Coast
Bays
Mt Albert
Tamaki
Makaurau
HaurakiWaikato
Te Tai Hauauru
Te Tai Tonga
Manurewa
Mangere
Te Tai Tokerau
Waiariki
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Christchurch
East
Ohariu
Ilam
Hutt South
Palmerston
North
Christchurch
Central
Auckland
Central
Mana
Dunedin South
Hamilton East
Rimutaka

Change
1.2%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%

2014
3.0%
2.4%
1.8%
1.6%
1.0%
1.4%
1.0%
1.5%
1.4%
2.7%
0.7%
1.6%

2011
1.8%
1.7%
1.2%
1.0%
0.6%
1.0%
0.7%
1.2%
1.1%
2.5%
0.5%
1.5%

0.2%
0.1%

1.8%
1.0%

1.6%
0.9%

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%

0.2%
0.1%
0.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%

0.2%
0.1%
0.2%
0.6%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.2%

-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.2%
-0.2%

0.3%
0.7%
1.0%
0.7%

0.4%
0.8%
1.2%
0.8%

-0.2%

0.5%

0.7%

-0.2%

0.5%

0.7%

-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%

1.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.7%
0.3%

1.4%
0.5%
0.6%
1.0%
0.6%

35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Waimakariri
Rongotai
Nelson
Otaki
Port Hills
Rotorua
Papakura
Hamilton West
Dunedin North
Wellington
Central
North Shore
Helensville
Rangitata
West Coast
Tasman
Hunua
Whanganui
Selwyn
New Plymouth
Rodney
Kaikoura
East Coast
Napier
Waitaki
Tauranga
Invercargill
Bay of Plenty
Taupo
Coromandel
Wairarapa
Tukituki
Tamaki
Rangitikei
Taranaki-King
Country
Whangarei
Northland
Waikato
Clutha
Southland

ACT gained support in 19 seats and lost support in 52 seats.

Their biggest increase was 1.2% in Pakuranga.
The median drop was Nelson on -0.3%

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.5%

0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%

0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.7%
0.8%
0.8%
1.1%
0.9%
0.8%

-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.6%

0.7%
1.4%
0.7%
0.5%

1.2%
1.9%
1.3%
1.0%

-0.6%
-0.6%
-0.6%
-0.6%
-0.6%
-0.7%
-0.7%
-0.8%
-0.8%
-0.8%
-0.8%
-0.9%
-0.9%
-0.9%
-1.0%
-1.0%
-1.1%
-1.1%
-1.1%

0.3%
0.9%
0.5%
0.4%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.4%
1.4%
0.4%

0.8%
1.4%
1.1%
1.0%
1.1%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.1%
1.1%
1.2%
1.2%
1.1%
1.2%
1.4%
1.3%
1.5%
2.5%
1.5%

-1.1%
-1.2%
-1.2%
-1.4%

0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%

1.5%
1.7%
1.6%
1.9%

-1.5%

0.4%

1.8%

- 38 -

UNITED FUTURE 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Ohariu
Rongotai
Hutt South
Northcote
Rimutaka
Mana
Rangitata
Wellington Central
Hamilton East
Wigram
Helensville
Kaikoura
Ilam
Taupo
Hamilton West
North Shore
Taranaki-King Country
Tauranga
Whangarei
Nelson
Dunedin North
Selwyn
Waitaki
Palmerston North
Maungakiekie
Christchurch Central
Hunua
Christchurch East
Pakuranga
East Coast
Waikato
Rangitikei
Bay of Plenty
Whanganui
Rotorua
East Coast Bays

0.7%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%

37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Upper Harbour
Rodney
Mt Roskill
Port Hills
Northland
Invercargill
Clutha Southland
West Coast Tasman
Otaki
Auckland Central
Tamaki
Waimakariri
New Plymouth
Papakura
Napier
Coromandel
Dunedin South
New Lynn
Tukituki
Epsom
Wairarapa
Te Atatu
Kelston
Mt Albert
Botany
Mangere
Te Tai Tonga
Manurewa
Te Tai Tokerau
Tamaki Makaurau
Te Tai Hauauru
Manukau East
Hauraki-Waikato
Waiariki
Ikaroa-Rawhiti

0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%

Uniteds highest party vote was in Ohariu where Peter Dunne stood at 0.7%. Second was Rongotai at
0.4%
They got 0.4% party vote or higher in just 2 seats.
Their median seat was East Coast Bays on 0.2%.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 39 -

UNITED FUTURE PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14

Change
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37

Tamaki
Makaurau
Auckland Central
Te Tai Tokerau
Hauraki-Waikato
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Te Tai Hauauru
Waiariki
Manukau East
Mangere
Manurewa
Maungakiekie
Epsom
Te Tai Tonga
Botany
Upper Harbour
Mt Roskill
New Lynn
Mt Albert
Helensville
Rodney
Kelston
Rongotai
Te Atatu
Tamaki
North Shore
Pakuranga
Papakura
Northcote
Northland
East Coast Bays
Hunua
Whanganui
Whangarei
Tauranga
New Plymouth
Port Hills
Christchurch
Central

2014

2011
38

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%

0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%

0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.6%
0.4%
0.4%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%

-0.3%

0.2%

0.6%

39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Christchurch
East
Wellington
Central
Dunedin South
Mana
Dunedin North
Waimakariri
Palmerston
North
Bay of Plenty
Napier
Selwyn
Hamilton West
Ilam
Tukituki
Hamilton East
Otaki
Wigram
Coromandel
Waikato
Wairarapa
Rangitata
Rotorua
Waitaki
Rangitikei
Clutha Southland
Invercargill
Rimutaka
Kaikoura
Hutt South
Taupo
East Coast
Nelson
Taranaki-King
Country
Ohariu
West Coast
Tasman

-0.3%

0.2%

0.6%

-0.3%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.4%

0.3%
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%

0.6%
0.5%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%

-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.6%
-0.6%
-0.6%
-0.6%
-0.6%
-0.6%
-0.6%
-0.6%
-0.7%
-0.7%
-0.7%
-0.7%

0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%

0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.8%
0.7%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
1.0%
0.9%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
1.0%

-0.9%
-1.0%

0.3%
0.7%

1.1%
1.7%

-1.2%

0.2%

1.4%

United Future lost votes in all but one seat Tamaki Makaurau
The median drop was Port Hills on -0.3%
23 seats had a drop of over -0.5% with the largest being West Coast Tasman which dropped 1.2%.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 40 -

RIGHT 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE

(National/ACT/United Future/Conservative)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

East Coast Bays

Tamaki
Hunua
Pakuranga
Clutha Southland
Epsom
Rodney
Taranaki-King Country
North Shore
Selwyn
Botany
Waikato
Helensville
Bay of Plenty
Ilam
Taupo
Waimakariri
Tauranga
Waitaki
Kaikoura
Upper Harbour
Rangitata
Rangitikei
Coromandel
New Plymouth
Tukituki
Wairarapa
Northcote
Rotorua
Whangarei
Papakura
Napier
Northland
Hamilton East
Ohariu
Otaki

72.1%
70.3%
70.0%
69.2%
69.0%
69.0%
68.6%
67.7%
67.7%
67.7%
66.7%
66.7%
64.3%
63.8%
62.7%
62.4%
62.2%
62.2%
62.1%
62.0%
60.9%
60.7%
60.3%
60.0%
59.7%
59.1%
57.3%
57.0%
56.7%
56.3%
56.2%
56.1%
55.9%
55.9%
54.8%
54.0%

37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Invercargill
East Coast
Hamilton West
Whanganui
Port Hills
Nelson
West Coast Tasman
Hutt South
Christchurch Central
Palmerston North
Auckland Central
Wigram
Mt Roskill
Maungakiekie
Te Atatu
Rimutaka
New Lynn
Mana
Christchurch East
Dunedin South
Mt Albert
Wellington Central
Kelston
Dunedin North
Rongotai
Manurewa
Manukau East
Mangere
Te Tai Tonga
Te Tai Tokerau
Hauraki-Waikato
Tamaki Makaurau
Te Tai Hauauru
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Waiariki

53.7%
53.1%
53.1%
53.0%
50.7%
50.6%
50.4%
49.9%
48.5%
48.5%
48.0%
47.8%
47.7%
46.5%
46.4%
46.2%
44.7%
43.7%
43.6%
43.3%
42.2%
40.1%
36.4%
35.6%
35.0%
31.2%
23.1%
19.1%
15.4%
9.5%
8.6%
8.5%
7.9%
6.2%
5.5%

East Coast Bays at 72.1% had the highest right vote followed by Tamaki. 24 (+10) seats in total had a right
vote over 60% and 43 (+7) seats had a right vote of over 50%.
The median electorate was Otaki on 54.0%.
13 seats had a right vote of below 40%.
The lowest electorates after the Maori seats and South Auckland were Rongotai, Dunedin North and
Kelston.
The seat with the highest right party vote that Labour won was Napier at 56.1%.
The seat with the lowest right party vote that National won was Maungakiekie at 46.5%.
s

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 41 -

CENTRE 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE

(NZ First/Maori)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Waiariki
Te Tai Hauauru
Tamaki Makaurau
Hauraki-Waikato
Te Tai Tokerau
Te Tai Tonga
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Tauranga
Bay of Plenty
Whangarei
Rotorua
Northland
Coromandel
East Coast
Whanganui
Wairarapa
Rangitikei
Invercargill
Hamilton West
Waikato
Papakura
Taupo
Rimutaka
Otaki
Kaikoura
Manurewa
Taranaki-King Country
Hunua
Christchurch East
New Plymouth
Rodney
Dunedin South
Palmerston North
Wigram
West Coast Tasman
Te Atatu

34.7%
29.4%
27.0%
25.3%
24.7%
24.1%
23.8%
15.1%
14.5%
13.9%
13.6%
13.4%
13.0%
12.8%
12.5%
12.3%
11.9%
11.5%
11.4%
11.3%
11.3%
11.1%
10.7%
10.4%
10.2%
10.2%
10.0%
10.0%
9.8%
9.6%
9.5%
9.4%
9.1%
9.0%
9.0%
8.8%

37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Kelston
Waimakariri
Rangitata
Tukituki
Manukau East
Hutt South
Nelson
Helensville
Napier
Mangere
Northcote
Hamilton East
Christchurch Central
New Lynn
Pakuranga
Mana
Upper Harbour
Selwyn
Waitaki
Maungakiekie
Dunedin North
Port Hills
Clutha Southland
East Coast Bays
North Shore
Rongotai
Auckland Central
Mt Roskill
Botany
Ilam
Ohariu
Tamaki
Mt Albert
Wellington Central
Epsom

8.8%
8.7%
8.1%
8.1%
8.1%
8.0%
8.0%
7.9%
7.9%
7.8%
7.8%
7.8%
7.6%
7.5%
7.4%
7.4%
7.3%
7.3%
7.2%
7.1%
7.1%
7.0%
6.6%
6.3%
6.3%
6.1%
5.7%
5.7%
5.7%
5.6%
5.3%
4.9%
4.6%
4.4%
3.9%

After the Maori seats Tauranga is next highest with 15.1% for centre parties, followed by Bay of Plenty and
Whangarei.
The median electorate was Te Atatu on 8.8%
The lowest electorates for the centre were Epsom, Wellington Central and Mt Albert.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 42 -

LEFT 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE

(Labour/Greens/ /Mana)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Mangere
Manukau East
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Hauraki-Waikato
Te Tai Tokerau
Tamaki Makaurau
Te Tai Hauauru
Rongotai
Te Tai Tonga
Waiariki
Manurewa
Dunedin North
Wellington Central
Kelston
Mt Albert
Mana
New Lynn
Dunedin South
Mt Roskill
Maungakiekie
Auckland Central
Christchurch East
Te Atatu
Christchurch Central
Rimutaka
Wigram
Palmerston North
Port Hills
Hutt South
Nelson
Ohariu
West Coast Tasman
Hamilton East
Napier
Otaki
Northcote

72.7%
68.4%
68.4%
64.3%
64.3%
63.5%
61.0%
58.4%
58.4%
58.2%
58.2%
56.5%
54.9%
54.3%
52.9%
48.2%
47.2%
46.4%
46.2%
45.8%
45.8%
45.7%
44.3%
43.1%
42.3%
42.2%
41.8%
41.7%
41.5%
39.7%
39.3%
37.3%
35.8%
35.3%
35.0%
34.7%

37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Hamilton West
Whanganui
Invercargill
East Coast
Tukituki
Papakura
Upper Harbour
Ilam
Rangitata
New Plymouth
Waitaki
Wairarapa
Northland
Rotorua
Whangarei
Waimakariri
Botany
Helensville
Rangitikei
Epsom
Kaikoura
Coromandel
North Shore
Taupo
Selwyn
Tamaki
Pakuranga
Clutha Southland
Tauranga
Rodney
Taranaki-King Country
Waikato
East Coast Bays
Bay of Plenty
Hunua

34.6%
33.5%
33.3%
33.1%
32.1%
31.9%
31.3%
31.3%
30.2%
29.9%
29.5%
29.4%
29.2%
28.7%
28.7%
28.2%
27.2%
27.1%
26.9%
26.8%
26.7%
26.2%
25.6%
25.3%
24.4%
24.3%
22.9%
22.9%
22.0%
21.4%
21.1%
21.1%
21.0%
20.8%
19.3%

Mangere at 72.7% had the highest left vote followed by Manukau East. 15 seats in total had a left vote over
50%.
The median electorate was Northcote on 34.7%.
42 seats have a total left vote of under 40% and 26 under 30%.
The lowest electorates for the left were Hunua, Bay of Plenty and East Coast Bays.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 43 -

RIGHT LEFT 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

East Coast Bays

Hunua
Rodney
Taranaki-King Country
Pakuranga
Clutha Southland
Tamaki
Waikato
Selwyn
Bay of Plenty
Epsom
North Shore
Tauranga
Botany
Helensville
Taupo
Kaikoura
Waimakariri
Coromandel
Rangitikei
Waitaki
Ilam
Rangitata
New Plymouth
Upper Harbour
Rotorua
Wairarapa
Whangarei
Tukituki
Northland
Papakura
Northcote
Napier
Invercargill
Hamilton East
East Coast

51.0%
50.7%
47.2%
46.6%
46.3%
46.1%
46.0%
45.6%
43.3%
43.0%
42.2%
42.2%
40.2%
39.5%
37.2%
37.1%
35.2%
34.0%
33.8%
33.4%
32.5%
31.4%
30.5%
29.8%
29.6%
28.0%
27.9%
27.6%
27.0%
26.8%
24.3%
22.3%
20.7%
20.4%
20.1%
20.0%

37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Whanganui
Otaki
Hamilton West
Ohariu
West Coast Tasman
Nelson
Port Hills
Hutt South
Palmerston North
Wigram
Christchurch Central
Rimutaka
Auckland Central
Te Atatu
Mt Roskill
Maungakiekie
Christchurch East
New Lynn
Dunedin South
Mana
Mt Albert
Wellington Central
Kelston
Dunedin North
Rongotai
Manurewa
Te Tai Tonga
Manukau East
Waiariki
Te Tai Hauauru
Mangere
Te Tai Tokerau
Tamaki Makaurau
Hauraki-Waikato
Ikaroa-Rawhiti

19.5%
19.0%
18.5%
15.5%
13.1%
10.9%
9.0%
8.4%
6.7%
5.6%
5.4%
3.9%
2.2%
2.1%
1.5%
0.7%
-2.1%
-2.5%
-3.1%
-4.4%
-10.7%
-14.8%
-17.8%
-20.9%
-23.4%
-27.0%
-42.9%
-45.3%
-52.7%
-53.1%
-53.6%
-54.8%
-55.0%
-55.7%
-62.2%

East Coast Bays had the largest margin between the vote for the right and the left at 51.0%. They are
followed by Hunua and Rodney.
23 seats have a greater than 30% gap, and 52 seats (out of 71) have the right with more votes than the left.
In 19 seats the left got more votes than the right, In 12 of those seats, by more than 20%.
The median electorate was east Coast with the right 20.0% ahead of the left.
The seven Maori seats and South Auckland are most favourable to the left with party vote margins of over
25%.
The seat with the highest right-left margin Labour won was Napier at +20.7%. The seat with the lowest rightleft margin that National won was Maungakiekie at 0.7%.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 44 -

RIGHT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38

New Lynn
Rangitata
New Plymouth
Mangere
Otaki
Napier
Waitaki
Manurewa
Mt Roskill
Coromandel
Ohariu
East Coast Bays
Manukau East
Hutt South
Maungakiekie
Mt Albert
Tauranga
Hunua
Bay of Plenty
Hamilton West
North Shore
Dunedin South
Mana
Auckland Central
Kaikoura
Nelson
Te Atatu
Selwyn
Tukituki
Pakuranga
Tamaki
Epsom
Rangitikei
Taupo
Ilam
Waimakariri
Clutha Southland
Botany

Change
4.5%
3.2%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.1%
2.0%
2.0%
1.9%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.4%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.1%
1.1%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%

2014
44.7%
60.7%
59.7%
19.1%
54.0%
56.1%
62.1%
31.2%
47.7%
60.0%
54.8%
72.1%
23.1%
49.9%
46.5%
42.2%
62.2%
70.0%
63.8%
53.1%
67.7%
43.3%
43.7%
48.0%
62.0%
50.6%
46.4%
67.7%
59.1%
69.2%
70.3%
69.0%
60.3%
62.4%
62.7%
62.2%
69.0%
66.7%

2011
40.2%
57.5%
57.0%
16.5%
51.4%
54.0%
60.0%
29.2%
45.8%
58.3%
53.2%
70.6%
21.7%
48.5%
45.2%
40.9%
60.9%
68.9%
62.7%
52.2%
66.8%
42.4%
42.9%
47.3%
61.2%
49.8%
45.7%
67.1%
58.5%
68.6%
69.8%
68.4%
60.0%
62.1%
62.3%
61.9%
68.7%
66.4%

39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Waikato
Whanganui
Northcote
Hauraki-Waikato
Hamilton East
Wairarapa
Wigram
Palmerston
North
Papakura
Taranaki-King
Country
Rimutaka
Invercargill
Rongotai
Rotorua
Wellington
Central
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Te Tai Tokerau
Te Tai Hauauru
Te Tai Tonga
Tamaki
Makaurau
Helensville
Christchurch
Central
Waiariki
West Coast
Tasman
Whangarei
Rodney
Upper Harbour
Dunedin North
East Coast
Northland
Port Hills
Kelston
Christchurch
East

The largest increase in right vote was New Lynn at 4.5% and then Rangitata at 3.2%.
45 of 71 electorates had an increase in the party vote for the right.
The median change was Waimakariri on +0.3%
The largest drops in support for the right was Christchurch East on 3.6% and Kelston.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

66.7%
53.0%
57.0%
8.6%
55.9%
57.3%
47.8%

66.4%
52.7%
56.8%
8.5%
55.8%
57.3%
47.9%

-0.1%
-0.1%

48.5%
56.2%

48.5%
56.3%

-0.1%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.3%
-0.4%

67.7%
46.2%
53.7%
35.0%
56.7%

67.9%
46.4%
53.9%
35.3%
57.0%

-0.4%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.6%
-0.6%

40.1%
6.2%
9.5%
7.9%
15.4%

40.5%
6.6%
10.0%
8.4%
16.0%

-0.6%
-0.6%

8.5%
64.3%

9.1%
64.9%

-0.7%
-0.7%

48.5%
5.5%

49.2%
6.2%

-0.8%
-0.9%
-0.9%
-1.0%
-1.0%
-1.2%
-1.6%
-2.0%
-2.7%

50.4%
56.3%
68.6%
60.9%
35.6%
53.1%
55.9%
50.7%
36.4%

51.2%
57.1%
69.5%
61.9%
36.6%
54.4%
57.5%
52.7%
39.1%

-3.6%

43.6%

47.2%

- 45 -

LEFT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Te Tai Tokerau
Waiariki
Tamaki
Makaurau
Hauraki-Waikato
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Te Tai Hauauru
Te Tai Tonga
Auckland Central
Wellington
Central
Dunedin North
Kelston
Rongotai
Mt Albert
Port Hills
Christchurch
East
Epsom
Tamaki
Dunedin South
Manukau East
Ilam
Christchurch
Central
Upper Harbour
Botany
Maungakiekie
North Shore
Northcote
Ohariu
East Coast
Wigram
Mana
Rotorua
Te Atatu
Helensville
Mangere
Papakura

Change
20.5%
14.0%

2014
64.3%
58.2%

2011
43.8%
44.2%

11.8%
10.3%
9.0%
7.4%
3.4%
0.3%

63.5%
64.3%
68.4%
61.0%
58.4%
45.8%

51.7%
54.1%
59.3%
53.6%
55.0%
45.5%

-0.5%
-0.7%
-1.0%
-1.1%
-1.5%
-1.5%

54.9%
56.5%
54.3%
58.4%
52.9%
41.7%

55.4%
57.2%
55.2%
59.5%
54.4%
43.2%

-1.5%
-2.0%
-2.6%
-3.2%
-3.3%
-3.4%

45.7%
26.8%
24.3%
46.4%
68.4%
31.3%

47.3%
28.7%
26.9%
49.6%
71.7%
34.7%

-3.4%
-3.6%
-3.7%
-3.7%
-3.8%
-3.8%
-3.9%
-3.9%
-4.1%
-4.1%
-4.1%
-4.3%
-4.5%
-4.6%
-4.6%

43.1%
31.3%
27.2%
45.8%
25.6%
34.7%
39.3%
33.1%
42.2%
48.2%
28.7%
44.3%
27.1%
72.7%
31.9%

46.5%
34.9%
30.9%
49.6%
29.3%
38.5%
43.1%
37.0%
46.4%
52.3%
32.9%
48.6%
31.6%
77.3%
36.5%

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Mt Roskill
Hutt South
Hamilton East
Selwyn
Clutha Southland
Tauranga
Pakuranga
Northland
Manurewa
Tukituki
Palmerston
North
Invercargill
Whanganui
Taranaki-King
Country
East Coast Bays
Taupo
Rimutaka
Waimakariri
Bay of Plenty
Nelson
Whangarei
Waikato
Waitaki
Coromandel
Napier
Hunua
Hamilton West
New Plymouth
West Coast
Tasman
Rodney
Otaki
Wairarapa
New Lynn
Rangitata
Kaikoura
Rangitikei

The only increases in left vote were the seven Maori seats, plus Auckland Central.
The median change was Mt Roskill on -4.6%
The largest drops in support for the left was Rangitikei and Kaikoura.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

-4.6%
-4.9%
-5.0%
-5.0%
-5.1%
-5.2%
-5.4%
-5.5%
-5.5%
-5.5%

46.2%
41.5%
35.8%
24.4%
22.9%
22.0%
22.9%
29.2%
58.2%
32.1%

50.8%
46.4%
40.8%
29.4%
28.0%
27.2%
28.4%
34.6%
63.6%
37.6%

-5.6%
-5.9%
-6.0%

41.8%
33.3%
33.5%

47.4%
39.1%
39.4%

-6.0%
-6.2%
-6.2%
-6.2%
-6.3%
-6.3%
-6.4%
-6.5%
-6.6%
-6.7%
-6.9%
-6.9%
-7.0%
-7.0%
-7.1%

21.1%
21.0%
25.3%
42.3%
28.2%
20.8%
39.7%
28.7%
21.1%
29.5%
26.2%
35.3%
19.3%
34.6%
29.9%

27.2%
27.2%
31.5%
48.5%
34.5%
27.1%
46.1%
35.2%
27.7%
36.3%
33.1%
42.3%
26.3%
41.7%
36.9%

-7.3%
-7.3%
-7.4%
-7.5%
-7.5%
-7.7%
-8.0%
-8.3%

37.3%
21.4%
35.0%
29.4%
47.2%
30.2%
26.7%
26.9%

44.6%
28.8%
42.3%
36.9%
54.7%
37.9%
34.7%
35.2%

- 46 -

2014 VALID (PARTY) VOTERS

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Port Hills
Waitaki
Rodney
Wellington Central
Hutt South
Rongotai
North Shore
Otaki
Nelson
Coromandel
Dunedin South
Epsom
New Plymouth
Wairarapa
Ohariu
Tauranga
Rimutaka
Whangarei
Mt Albert
Tamaki
Kaikoura
Mana
Bay of Plenty
Napier
Taupo
Rangitata
Waimakariri
Tukituki
Hunua
Selwyn
Waikato
West Coast Tasman
Northland
Helensville
Ilam
Northcote

39,865
39,639
39,323
39,030
38,962
38,514
38,507
38,412
38,050
37,931
37,628
37,582
37,553
37,409
37,324
37,142
37,035
36,832
36,746
36,670
36,669
36,638
36,587
36,460
36,241
36,197
36,054
35,922
35,876
35,875
35,873
35,861
35,553
35,361
35,304
35,299

37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

Whanganui
East Coast
Dunedin North
Hamilton East
Rangitikei
Papakura
Maungakiekie
Pakuranga
Palmerston North
Christchurch Central
Clutha Southland
Invercargill
Rotorua
Mt Roskill
Hamilton West
Taranaki-King Country
Botany
New Lynn
Upper Harbour
Te Atatu
East Coast Bays
Christchurch East
Kelston
Wigram
Auckland Central
Manurewa
Mangere
Manukau East
Te Tai Tokerau
Waiariki
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Hauraki-Waikato
Tamaki Makaurau
Te Tai Tonga
Te Tai Hauauru

35,295
35,279
35,032
34,767
34,665
34,579
34,561
34,520
34,334
34,264
34,229
34,113
33,927
33,921
33,670
33,579
33,556
33,484
33,273
33,112
32,968
32,489
30,701
30,567
28,157
27,490
27,338
26,569
22,651
22,169
21,811
20,914
20,644
20,605
20,465

Port Hills had the highest number of valid voters at 39,865 followed by Port Hills and Waitaki.
The median electorate was Northcote with 35,299 votes. The mean was 33,882.
After the seven Maori seats which traditionally always have the lowest turnouts, we have South Auckland
and then Auckland Central.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 47 -

2014 TURNOUT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Wellington Central
Selwyn
Ohariu
Rongotai
Otaki
Helensville
Mana
Rodney
Waitaki
Dunedin South
Port Hills
Waimakariri
Hutt South
Rangitikei
Hunua
Napier
Tamaki
Rimutaka
Bay of Plenty
Wairarapa
Taranaki-King Country
West Coast Tasman
Mt Albert
Kaikoura
Tauranga
Nelson
Tukituki
Palmerston North
Dunedin North
Northland
Coromandel
Waikato
Ilam
Rotorua
Taupo
Whangarei

84.6%
84.4%
83.7%
83.6%
83.1%
82.9%
82.3%
82.2%
82.0%
82.0%
81.9%
81.8%
81.7%
81.4%
81.1%
81.1%
81.0%
81.0%
80.6%
80.6%
80.5%
80.5%
80.4%
80.3%
80.3%
80.2%
80.2%
80.2%
80.2%
80.1%
80.0%
79.6%
79.5%
79.3%
79.3%
79.2%

37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71

North Shore
Rangitata
Clutha Southland
Epsom
Auckland Central
Christchurch Central
New Plymouth
Hamilton East
East Coast
Whanganui
Papakura
Invercargill
Christchurch East
Maungakiekie
Northcote
Wigram
New Lynn
Te Atatu
East Coast Bays
Hamilton West
Pakuranga
Mt Roskill
Kelston
Upper Harbour
Botany
Manurewa
Manukau East
Mangere
Te Tai Tokerau
Waiariki
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Te Tai Hauauru
Hauraki-Waikato
Te Tai Tonga
Tamaki Makaurau

79.0%
78.7%
78.7%
78.6%
78.5%
78.5%
78.1%
77.7%
77.4%
77.2%
76.9%
76.9%
76.9%
76.8%
76.6%
76.3%
76.0%
75.9%
75.9%
75.7%
75.5%
75.0%
74.3%
74.3%
71.9%
70.2%
69.7%
69.4%
69.3%
66.3%
66.3%
65.9%
63.6%
63.6%
60.6%

Wellington Central had the highest turnout at 84.6% followed by Selwyn and Ohariu.
The median electorate was Whangarei at 79.2%.
After the seven Maori seats which traditionally always have the lowest turnouts, we have South Auckland
and then Botany.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 48 -

2014 PARTY VOTE PLACINGS

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th

NAT LAB GRE

60
11
4
55
4
1
5
33
0
31
1
3
5

NZF
4
30
36
1

CON MAO MAN ACT

2
60
2
7

3
2
1
1
6
21
35
2

1
0
1
4
42
22
1

1
15
21
31
3

UF

1
4
66

This shows the number of seats in which each party came 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc. in the party vote. This is out of the
seven parliamentary parties plus NZ First only.
National won the party vote in 60 of the 71 seats, was 2nd in 4 and 3rd to 6th or the seven Maori seats.
Labour won the party vote in 11 seats and was 2nd in 55 seats. In five seats they came third - .
The Greens were 2rd in 4 seats and 3rd in 33 seats. Median placing was 3rd.
NZ First were 2nd in the party vote in 4 electorates, 3rd in the party vote in 30 seats Median placing was 4th.
Conservatives were 5th in 60 seats. Median placing was 5th.
The Maori Party were 2nd in three seats. Median placing was 8th.
Mana was 2nd in one seat and 4th in 1 seat, Median placing was 6th.
ACT were 5th in 1 seat. Median placing was 7th.
United Future were 6th in 1 seat. Median placing was 9th.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 49 -

2014 ELECTORATE VOTE PLACINGS

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th

NAT LAB GRE

41
27
22
39
3
1
5
39
15

NZF

16
13
1
1

CON MAO MAN ACT

1
1
1
4
2
6
2
2
31
1
5
2
26
2
6
18
8
14
12
6
3
5
1
1

UF
1

1
6
5
3

This shows the number of seats in which each party came 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc. in the electorate vote. This is out of
the parliamentary parties (and Conservatives) only.
National won the electorate vote in 41 seats, was 2nd in 22 of them and 3rd in one seat (Ohariu-Belmont).
Labour won the electorate vote in 27 of the 70 seats, was 2nd in 39 seats and 3rd in five seats.
The Greens were 2nd in three seats and 3rd in 30 seats.
NZ First were 3rd in 16 seats.
The Maori Party won one Maori seat and were 2nd in four others.
Mana were 2nd in two seats, 3rd in two seats and 4th in five seats.
Conservatives were 2nd in one seat (East Coast Bays) and 3rd in six further seats.

2014 Election Results Analysis David Farrar, david@farrar.com