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1AC Offshore Wind

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Congress is lagging on extending federal tax credits for wind
Richard A. Kessler Friday, May 23 2014
Updated: Friday, May 23 2014 US Senate recesses without PTC vote
The US Senate recessed through the end of May without a vote on extending
several dozen federal tax credits for a range of industries including two that have
driven growth in onshore and offshore wind. Leaders of clean energy groups and
industries that serve the sector lamented the move although lawmakers inaction
came as little surprise. A group of Republican senators last week ago had halted
movement on the so-called bipartisan EXPIRE Act unless they could strip out the
renewable electricity production tax credit (PTC) for wind. Senate Majority Leader
Harry Reid, a Democrat closely allied with the White House, refused to go along and
the bill stalled. He did not schedule a vote after the Senate resumes work in June.

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The United States federal government should provide longterm extensions of tax credits for offshore wind.

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Advantage one is the economy

US recession is coming now:
Toledo Blade, 7/27/2014 (Sluggish growth to weigh down American
economy, economist predicts,, Accessed 8/3/2014, rwg)
Levy, who oversees the Levy Forecast , a newsletter analyzing the economy
that his family started in 1949 and one with an enviable record. Nearly a decade ago, the now
59-year-old economist warned that U.S. housing was a bubble set to burst, and the
damage would push the country into a recession so severe the Federal Reserve would have to
slash short-term borrowing rates to their lowest levels ever to stimulate the economy. Thats exactly what
happened. Now, Mr. Levy says the United States is likely to fall into a recession next
year triggered by downturns in other countries, the first time in modern history. The recession for the
rest of the world ... will be worse than the last one , says Mr. Levy, whose grandfather called the
Thats the view of David

1929 stock crash and whose father won praise over decades for anticipating turns in the business cycle, often
against conventional wisdom. Mr. Levys forecast for a global recession is extreme, but its worth considering given
how much is riding on the dominant view that economies are healing. Investors have pushed U.S. stocks to record
highs, and Fed estimates have the United States growing at an annual pace of at least 3 percent for the rest of the
year and all of 2015. Investors also have poured hundreds of millions of dollars into emerging market stock funds

Worrisome signs are out

there. Unlike their U.S. counterparts, European banks are stuck with too many bad loans from the financial crisis.
recently on hopes economic growth in those countries will pick up, not stall.

Business debt is too high. And confidence is fleeting, as investors saw earlier this month when stocks sold off on
worries over the stability of Portugals largest bank. In China and other emerging markets, the problem of relying on
indebted Americans to buy more of their goods each year and not selling enough to their own people means a glut
of underused factories. The

world hopes to ride on the coattails of the U.S. consumer , says

the U.S. consumer isnt in a position to

Eswar Prasad, an economist at Cornell University, but

take on the burden. Emerging markets bounced back faster from the financial crisis than did rich countries,
but Mr. Levy thinks a big reason for that has made things worse. Overseas companies poured money into factories,
machines, and buildings to make things on the assumption that exports, after snapping back from recession lows,
would continue to grow at their prior pace. They have not, because companies had been investing too much to
expand production before the crisis too. You build factories and stores, and they cant pay for themselves, says
Mr. Levy, chairman of the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, a consulting firm. Businesses cant generate profits, and
they start to contract. Compared to such fragile economies, Mr. Levy says the United States is in decent shape.
Like most economists, hes not worried about the nations 2.9 percent drop in economic output in the first quarter.
He expects growth to return, but not for long, as a recession in Europe or emerging markets spreads to the United
States. Mr. Levy says the United States is more vulnerable to troubles abroad than people realize. Exports
contributed 14 percent of U.S. economic output last year, up from 9 percent in 2002. That sounds good, but it also
makes the country more dependent on global growth, which, in turn, relies more on emerging markets. Those

Mr. Levy predicts a

U.S. recession will throw its housing recovery in reverse and push home prices below the low in
the last recession. He says panicked investors are likely to dump stocks and flood into U.S.
markets accounted for 50 percent of global output last year, up from 38 percent in 2002.

Treasurys, a haven in troubled times, like never before. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which moves
opposite to its price, is likely to fall from 2.5 percent to less than 1 percent an unprecedented low. In 2012, when
investors feared a breakup of the euro-currency bloc, the 10-year yield fell to 1.4 percent.

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Economic decline causes war studies prove

Royal 10 (Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S.
Department of Defense, 2010, Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and
the Problem of Economic Crises, in Economics of War and Peace: Economic,
Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)
periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external
conflict. Political science literature has contributed a moderate degree of attention to the impact of economic
Less intuitive is how

decline and the security and defence behaviour of interdependent stales. Research in this vein has been considered
at systemic, dyadic and national levels. Several notable contributions follow. First, on the systemic level. Pollins

rhythms in
the global economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power and
the often bloody transition from one pre-eminent leader to the next. As such, exogenous
shocks such as economic crises could usher in a redistribution of relative power (see also
Gilpin. 19SJ) that leads to uncertainty about power balances, increasing the risk of
miscalculation (Fcaron. 1995). Alternatively, even a relatively certain redistribution of power could lead to a
(20081 advances Modclski and Thompson's (1996) work on leadership cycle theory, finding that

permissive environment for conflict as a rising power may seek to challenge a declining power (Werner. 1999).
Separately. Pollins (1996) also shows that global economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact
the likelihood of conflict among major, medium and small powers, although he suggests that the causes and
connections between global economic conditions and security conditions remain unknown. Second, on a dyadic
level. Copeland's (1996. 2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that 'future expectation of trade' is a
significant variable in understanding economic conditions and security behaviour of states. He argues that
interdependent states arc likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future

if the expectations of future trade decline, particularly for difficult

to replace items such as energy resources, the likelihood for conflict increases, as states
will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources . Crises could potentially be the
trade relations. However,

trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist moves by
interdependent states.4 Third, others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed
conflict at a national level. Mom berg and Hess (2002) find a strong correlation between internal conflict and

The linkage, between

internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and mutually reinforcing .
external conflict, particularly during periods of economic downturn. They write.

Economic conflict lends to spawn internal conflict, which in turn returns the favour. Moreover, the presence of a
recession tends to amplify the extent to which international and external conflicts self-reinforce each other
(Hlomhen? & Hess. 2(102. p. X9> Economic decline has also been linked with an increase in the likelihood of
terrorism (Blombcrg. Hess. & Wee ra pan a, 2004). which has the capacity to spill across borders and lead to
external tensions. Furthermore, crises generally reduce the popularity of a sitting government. " Diversionary

theory" suggests that, when facing unpopularity arising from economic decline, sitting
governments have increased incentives to fabricate external military conflicts to create a
'rally around the flag' effect. Wang (1996), DcRoucn (1995), and Blombcrg. Hess, and Thacker (2006) find
supporting evidence showing that economic decline and use of force arc at least indirecti) correlated. Gelpi (1997).
Miller (1999). and Kisangani and Pickering (2009) suggest that Ihe tendency towards diversionary tactics arc greater
for democratic states than autocratic states, due to the fact that democratic leaders are generally more susceptible
to being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. DeRouen (2000) has provided evidence showing that
periods of weak economic performance in the United States, and thus weak Presidential popularity, are statistically
linked lo an increase in the use of force. In summary, rcccni economic scholarship positively correlates economic

political science scholarship

links economic decline with external conflict al systemic, dyadic and national levels.' This implied
integration with an increase in the frequency of economic crises, whereas

connection between integration, crises and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-security
debate and deserves more attention.

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Offshore wind will turn the US into a massive economic

Sargent, 9/13/12 [Rob Sargent, U.S. Poised to Join the Race on Offshore
Wind: Lawmakers Must Commit to More Pollution-Free Energy,]
The Turning Point for Atlantic Offshore Wind Energy includes details on the key milestones each Atlantic Coast state
and along with the wind potential and the economic benefits. Among the highlights of the report:


wind energy will be an economic powerhouse for America. Harnessing the 52 gigawatts of
already-identified available Atlantic offshore wind energy just 4 percent of the estimated
generation potential of this massive resource could generate $200 billion in economic
activity, create 300,000 jobs, and sustain power for about 14 million homes. (Europe
already produces enough energy from offshore wind right now to power 4 million homes.) America is closer
than ever to bringing offshore wind energy ashore . Efforts are underway in 10 Atlantic Coast
states, with over 2,000 square nautical miles of federal waters already designated for wind energy development off
of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia. Environmental reviews finding no
significant impacts have been completed, and leases are expected to be issued for some of these areas by the end

Despite this progress, leadership is urgently needed at both the state and
federal level to ensure offshore wind energy becomes a reality in America: President
Obama should set a clear national goal for offshore wind energy development, and
each Atlantic state governor should also a set goal for offshore wind development off their shores. These goals
must be supported by policies that prioritize offshore wind energy and other efforts to
of the year.

secure buyers for this new source of reliable, clean energy.

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Advantage two is energy

The US is heavily dependent on foreign energy sources:
Don Briggs, president of the Louisiana Oil & Gas Association, 7/20/20 14
Why does the current instability in Iraq cause our gas prices to jump? Why should anything going on in Libya affect
the United States energy market? One simple reason:

The United States has been dependent on

foreign resources for several decades. Our dependence has not been on just any ol country.
Specifically, we have been dependent on the Organization of Exporting Countries for our yearly imports of

To be more specific, the latest data from the United States Energy
Information Administration shows that we imported 5.83 million barrels of petroleum
a day from OPEC countries or 55 percent of our net imports for 2012. This fact quickly

answers the previous question of why our market is disrupted by Middle Eastern instability. Naturally, looking at this
data, it would be accurate to say that energy independence needs to occur sooner than late r.
Although this is an accurate statement, the broader scope of energy security cannot be ignored. No one would
argue that the United States is a world super power. However, as instability continues in the Middle East, and the
demand for natural resources in America grows, an obvious tie between our power and our natural resource
stability can be seen. As the oil and natural gas supply increases with each new day here in the United States, it is
vital that our federal government and our individual states recognize the importance of free enterprise. Rather than
hamper new development and exploration, our nation should be doing everything possible to encourage new oil
and gas business. Will oil and gas be the fuel of the future? Authorities on all fronts argue this issue daily. For today,
oil and natural gas are the leading fuels that literally power our country. Petroleum products can be found in nearly
any item you pick up. What are the tangibles of energy security? For starters, the U.S. Department of Defense relies
on petroleum for more than 75 percent of its needs. Another example of energy security is the fact that nearly
every farming and manufactured food and household product is made through the use of petroleum. Just as Russia
has done with the Ukraine by cutting off natural gas supplies, similarly, if Saudi Arabia decided to diminish their
imports to the United States, immediate chaos would be thrown into the U.S. trade market. What is the solution to
achieving energy independence and security? The United States is on the right path. Developing our own
technologies and our own natural resources will only speed up the process of establishing our long-term energy
security. The ripple effect, however, on our energy security and independence starts small. For example, when a
local or parish/county government overregulates or prohibits oil and gas operations, even this action decelerates
our long-term safety and strength as a nation.

Continued energy dependence risks multiple scenarios for

Mark E. Rosen, 2010 (Deputy General Counsel, CNA Corporation),
University of Richmond Law Review, March 2010 44 U. Rich. L. Rev. 977,
There is a growing consensus in U.S. national security circles that American
dependence on imported oil constitutes a threat to the United States because a
substantial portion of those oil reserves are controlled by governments that have
historically pursued policies inimical to U.S. interests . For example, Venezuela, which represents
eleven percent of U.S. oil imports, "regularly espouses anti-American and anti-Western rhetoric both at home and abroad ... [and] ...
promotes ... [an] anti-U.S. influence in parts of Latin and South America ..." n72 that retards the growth of friendly political and
economic ties among the United States, Venezuela, and a few other states in Latin and South America. This scenario plays out in
many different regions. Russia, for example, has used its oil leverage to exert extreme political pressure upon Ukraine and Belarus.
n73 Longstanding Western commercial relations with repressive regimes in the Middle East - i.e., Iran, Sudan, and Saudi Arabia -

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raise similar issues because of the mixed strategic messages that are being sent. Of course, large wealth [*989] transfers have

Chokepoints and Flashpoints For the

foreseeable future, the U.S. military will most likely be involved in protecting access
to oil supplies - including the political independence of oil producers - and the global movements of using oil to help sustain
allowed the Taliban in Saudi Arabia to bankroll terrorism. n74 A.

the smooth functioning of the world economy. The security challenges associated with preserving access to oil are complicated by
geographical "chokepoints," through which oil flows or is transported, but which are vulnerable to piracy or closure. n75


also exist as a result of political - and sometimes military - competition

to secure commercial or sovereign access to oil in the face of disputed maritime and land claims
that are associated with oil and gas deposits. Together, these challenges have necessitated that
the United States and its allies maintain costly navies and air forces to protect sea
lanes, ocean access, and maintain a presence to deter military competition in
disputed regions. A selection of today's chokepoints and flashpoints follow. The
Strait of Hormuz. This strait is the narrow waterway that allows access from the Indian Ocean into the Persian Gulf.
Two-thirds of the world's oil is transported by ocean, and a very large percentage of that trade moves through Hormuz. The northern
tip of Oman forms the southern shoreline of the strait. n76 Hormuz is protected by the constant transits of the U.S. Navy and its
allies. Even though the strait has not been closed, the Persian Gulf has been the scene of extensive military conflict. n77 On
September 22, 1980, Iraq invaded Iran, initiating an eight-year war between the two countries that featured the "War of the
Tankers," in which 543 ships, including the USS Stark, were attacked, while the U.S. Navy provided escort services to protect tankers
[*990] that were transiting the Persian Gulf. n78 There have been past threats by Iran to militarily close the strait. n79 Additionally,
there are ongoing territorial disputes between the United Arab Emirates and Iran over ownership of three islands that are located in
approaches to the strait. n80 Closure of the strait would cause severe disruption in the movements of the world's oil supplies and, at
a minimum, cause significant price increases and perhaps supply shortages in many regions for the duration of the closure. n81
During the War of the Tankers, oil prices increased from $ 13 per barrel to $ 31 a barrel due to supply disruptions and other "fear"
factors. n82 Bab el-Mandeb. The strait separates Africa (Djibouti and Eritrea) and Asia (Yemen), and it connects the Red Sea to the
Indian Ocean via the Gulf of Aden. The strait is an oil transit chokepoint since most of Europe's crude oil from the Middle East passes
north through Bab el-Mandeb into the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal. n83 Closure of the strait due to terrorist activities or for
political/military reasons, could keep tankers from the Persian Gulf from reaching the Suez Canal and Sumed Pipeline complex,
diverting them around the southern tip of Africa (the Cape of Good Hope). n84 This would add greatly to transit time and cost, and
would effectively tie-up spare tanker capacity. Closure of the Bab el-Mandeb would effectively block non-oil shipping from using the
Suez Canal. n85 In October 2002 the French-flagged tanker Limburg was attacked off the coast of Yemen by terrorists. n86 During

Turkish Straits and Caspian Oil. The term "Turkish Straits" refers to the two narrow
straits in northwestern Turkey, the Bosporus and the Dardanelles, which connect the Sea of Marmara with the
Black Sea on one side and the Aegean arm of the Mediterranean Sea on the other. Turkey and Russia have been
locked in a longstanding dispute over passage issues involving the Turkish Straits.
the [*991] Yom Kippur War in 1973, Egypt closed the strait as a means of blockading the southern Israeli port of Eilat. n87

n88 The 1936 Montreux Convention puts Turkey in charge of regulating traffic through the straits; n89 yet Turkey has been hard
pressed to stop an onslaught of Russian, Ukrainian, and Cypriot tankers, which transport Caspian Sea oil to markets in Western
Europe. n90 Because of the very heavy shipping traffic and very challenging geography, there have been many collisions and
groundings in the past, creating terrible pollution incidents and death. n91 Thus far, none of these incidents have been attributed to
state-on-state-conflict or terrorism; n92 however, the confined waterway is an especially attractive target because of the grave
economic and environmental damage that would result from a well-timed and well-placed attack on a loaded tanker. The issues
surrounding the straits are also a subset of larger problems associated with the exploitation of Caspian oil, including severe pollution
of the Caspian Sea as a result of imprudent extraction techniques, as well as the ever-present potential for conflict among the
various claimants to the Caspian's hydrocarbon resources due to an inability of the various Caspian littoral states to agree on their

Any one of these problems could

become a major flashpoint in the future. China vs. Japan. The Daiyu/Senkaku islands
located in the East China Sea have become an increasingly contentious dispute
maritime boundaries - and their [*992] legal areas in which to drill. n93

because both claimants have, in the past, used modern military platforms to patrol the areas of their claims in which there are
suspected oil and gas deposits in the seabed. n94 In September 2005, for example, China dispatched five warships to disputed
waters surrounding its oil and gas platforms, which were spotted by a Japanese maritime patrol aircraft. n95 There have been other
similar military-to-military encounters. n96 Given the fact that both countries have modern armed forces and are comparatively

The Arctic Super

Highway. Traditionalists would probably not include the Arctic as a security
chokepoint. The oil connection is reasonably well known: "22 percent of the world's undiscovered energy
energy starved, it is not difficult to envision serious conflict erupting over these disputed areas.

reserves are projected to be in the region (including 13 percent of the world's petroleum and 30 percent of natural gas)." n97 However, given the very
small margins that transporters earn transporting oil from point A to B, n98 shipping companies are always in search of shorter routes to transport oil to
market. As the thawing of the Arctic Ocean continues as a result of climate change, n99 this may create new shipping routes that transporters of [*993] oil
and other goods will use to maximize their profits and minimize their transit times. As supplies of readily exploitable crude oil are reduced, the probability
increases that some of this trade will result from exploitation activities in the land and littoral areas adjacent to the Arctic Sea. This development is
concerning for a number of reasons: (1) the area is very remote and could provide a safe haven to pirates seeking to hijack cargoes; (2) the environmental
sensitivity of the area, and the concomitant difficulty of mounting a cleanup effort, means that an oil spill in that marine environment will be much more
persistent than an oil spill in temperate waters; n100 (3) the Arctic presents unique navigational difficulties due to the lack of good charts, navigational
aids, and communications towers, as well as the impacts of extreme cold on the operational effectiveness of systems; n101 (4) the unsettled nature of

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claims by various countries, including the United States, to the seabed continental shelf resources in the littoral areas off their coastlines creates the
potential for military competition and conflict over these claims. n102 The International Maritime Organization ("IMO") is now circulating draft guidelines
for ships operating in Arctic areas to promote - but not require - ship hardening against an iceberg strike, better crew training, and environmental
protection measures. n103 These guidelines are merely advisory and can only be implemented via the flag states. n104 Also, neither IMO nor any of the
UN Law of the Sea Institutions have mandatory jurisdiction over any of the flashpoint issues relating [*994] to competing continental shelf claims in the

The above is only a selected list of

potential flashpoints in which oil is the main culprit. Disputes between China and six
other nations of the Spratly Islands, and other territories in the South China Sea,
remain unresolved.
Arctic, n105 meaning that any disputes will remain unresolved for a long time .

Offshore wind power creates energy independence:

Peter J. Schaumberg and Angela F. Colamaria 2009 (former Deputy
Associate Solicitor for the Division of Mineral Resources & former senior
career attorney responsible for mineral development matters, Roger Williams
University Law Review, Summer 2009, Accessed 7/27/2014, rwg)
Renewable energy opportunities on the OCS are a key component to securing this
Nation's energy independence. The offshore wind energy sector, in particular,
has grown exponentially worldwide. Opportunities for development on the OCS will
likely accelerate the pace of that expansion . In addition, recent experience with high energy prices
and the instability associated with dependence on foreign sources of supply are creating opportunities for

OCS final rules are important in that they create the potential for renewable energy
to displace a portion of U.S. fossil fuel use. Such a shift will generate environmental
benefits, reduce U.S. dependence on foreign sources of energy, and create
new renewable energy jobs.
developers to initiate projects on the OCS with newer technologies, such as tidal, wave, and thermal energy.

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Advantage three is US soft power

The US failure to take the lead on climate change is
undermining its soft power:
Joe Romm (staff writer) 4/5/2012 (U.S. Global Warming Denial Will Help
China Overtake America, Experts Warn,, Accessed 7/27/2014)
Raven and biologist Paul R. Ehrlich co-invented the bedrock concept of co-evolution, in 1964. Raven tells ABC bluntly Its not a
matter of conjecture anymore, he said. Climate

change is the most serious challenge probably

that the human race has ever confronted. Raven quickly summarized the virtually unanimous
understanding of the worlds climate scientists and other responsible experts about the great upheavals manmade global warming is
now producing. Blakemore has a great video interview of Raven in the now world-famous, immense and exquisite gardens that .. he
had turned into an expansive vision of what a peaceful and balanced world could look like a sort of international botanical
metaphor. Raven talks warming starting around 2:15: He slams denialism, as Blakemore explains: Americas Prestige Damaged by
Its Climate Denialism; World Has Given Up on Hoped-for U.S. Leadership Two

years ago, Raven added in his email, the

world was hoping for U.S. leadership on this question, global climate change,
and now it has pretty well given up, with us as the only hold-out nation on the science. An extensive
disinformation campaign in the United States about the scientific solidity and gravity of manmade global warming has been
described in detail by a number of academic analyses and extensive professional journalistic enquiry. For example, Merchants of
Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues From Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming, by Naomi Oreskes and
Erik M. Conway, details how ideological, political and fossil fuel industry interests have been able to confuse and intimidate many
leaders in legislature and media. Blakemore notes that other leading experts have made a similar warning of the risks posed to this
country of allowing its science, climate, and energy policy to continue to be captured by the deniers: Also dovetailing with this and
Peter Ravens assessment that the

world has pretty much given up on American leadership in

climate, Christiana Figueres, the head of the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) used even
stronger language, speaking of the tragedy of the U.S. position: The tragedy of the position that the U.S. is taking is that not only

the more tragic part about it is the U.S. is

cutting off its possibilities to be a leader in this field, to be a leader in green
technology (and thus) to create jobs, Figueres said. The U.S. is losing leadership to
China. So we lose moral leadership which will become an increasing threat to
our so-called soft power as the full impact of climate change begins to kick in
over the coming decades and the world sees our intransigence as a major reason
for inaction. And we lose the chance to be a leader in the single biggest job creating
sector of this century carbon-reducing technologies and strategies .
does it act here in a way that is not particularly ambitious, but

Soft power is necessary to solve terrorism, proliferation, and

Mark P. Lagon (International Relations and Security Chair at
Georgetown University's Master of Science in Foreign Service Program)
2011 (The Value of Values: Soft Power Under Obama, Sept/Oct 2011,
Despite large economic challenges, two protracted military expeditions, and the rise of China, India, Brazil, and

the United States still has an unrivaled ability to

confront terrorism, nuclear proliferation, financial instability, pandemic disease, mass
atrocity, or tyranny. Although far from omnipotent, the United States is still, as former Secretary of State
Madeleine Albright called it, the indispensible nation. Soft power is crucial to sustaining
and best leveraging this role as catalyst. That President Obama should have excluded it from his
other new players on the international scene,

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vision of Americas foreign policy assetsparticularly in the key cases of Iran, Russia, and Egyptsuggests that he
feels the country has so declined, not only in real power but in the power of example, that it lacks the moral
authority to project soft power. In the 1970s, many also considered the US in decline as it grappled with
counterinsurgency in faraway lands, a crisis due to economic stagnation, and reliance on foreign oil. Like Obama,
Henry Kissinger tried to manage decline in what he saw as a multipolar world, dressing up prescriptions for policy
as descriptions of immutable reality. In the 1980s, however, soft power played a crucial part in a turnaround for US
foreign policy. Applying it, President Reagan sought to transcend a nuclear balance of terror with defensive
technologies, pushed allies in the Cold War (e.g., El Salvador, Chile, Taiwan, South Korea, and the Philippines) to
liberalize for their own good, backed labor movements opposed to Communists in Poland and Central America, and
called for the Berlin Wall to be torn downover Foggy Bottom objections. This symbolism not only boosted the
perception and the reality of US influence, but also hastened the demise of the USSR and the Warsaw Pact. For
Barack Obama, this was the path not taken. Even the Arab Spring has not cured his acute allergy to soft power. His
May 20, 2011, speech on the Middle East and Northern Africa came four months after the Jasmine Revolution
emerged. His emphasis on 1967 borders as the basis for Israeli-Palestinian peace managed to eclipse even his
broad words (vice deeds) on democracy in the Middle East. Further, those words failed to explain his deeds in
continuing to support some Arab autocracies (e.g., Bahrains, backed by Saudi forces) even as he gives tardy
rhetorical support for popular forces casting aside other ones. To use soft power without hard power is to be

Even France, with its long commitment

to realpolitik, has overtaken the United States as proponent and implementer of
humanitarian intervention in Libya and Ivory Coast. When the American president
has no problem with France combining hard and soft power better than the United
States, something is seriously amiss.
Sweden. To use hard power without soft power is to be China.

Terrorism risks Extinction

Hellman 8 (Martin E. Hellman, emeritus prof of engineering @ Stanford, Risk
Analysis of Nuclear Deterrence SPRING 2008 THE BENT OF TAU BETA PI,

The threat of nuclear terrorism looms much larger in the publics mind than the threat of a full-scale
nuclear war, yet this article focuses primarily on the latter. An explanation is therefore in order before proceeding.

A terrorist attack involving a nuclear weapon would be a catastrophe of immense

proportions: A 10-kiloton bomb detonated at Grand Central Station on a typical work day would likely kill some
half a million people, and inflict over a trillion dollars in direct economic damage. America and its way of life would

The likelihood of such an attack is also

significant. Former Secretary of Defense William Perry has estimated the chance of a nuclear
terrorist incident within the next decade to be roughly 50 percent [Bunn 2007, page 15]. David
be changed forever. [Bunn 2003, pages viii-ix].

Albright, a former weapons inspector in Iraq, estimates those odds at less than one percent, but notes, We would
never accept a situation where the chance of a major nuclear accident like Chernobyl would be anywhere near
1% .... A nuclear terrorism attack is a low-probability event, but we cant live in a world where its anything but

In a survey of 85 national security experts, Senator

Richard Lugar found a median estimate of 20 percent for the probability of an attack involving a
nuclear explosion occurring somewhere in the world in the next 10 years, with 79
percent of the respondents believing it more likely to be carried out by terrorists
than by a government [Lugar 2005, pp. 14-15]. I support increased efforts to reduce the threat of nuclear
terrorism, but that is not inconsistent with the approach of this article. Because terrorism is one of the
potential trigger mechanisms for a full-scale nuclear war , the risk analyses proposed herein will
extremely low-probability. [Hegland 2005].

include estimating the risk of nuclear terrorism as one component of the overall risk. If that risk, the overall risk, or
both are found to be unacceptable, then the proposed remedies would be directed to reduce which- ever risk(s)
warrant attention. Similar remarks apply to a number of other threats (e.g., nuclear war between the U.S. and China
over Taiwan). his article would be incomplete if it only dealt with the threat of nuclear terrorism and neglected the
threat of full- scale nuclear war. If both risks are unacceptable, an effort to reduce only the terrorist component

societys almost total neglect of the threat of fullscale nuclear war makes studying that risk all the more important . The cosT of World War iii
would leave humanity in great peril. In fact,

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The danger associated with nuclear deterrence depends on both the cost of a failure and the failure rate.3 This
section explores the cost of a failure of nuclear deterrence, and the next section is concerned with the failure rate.
While other definitions are possible, this article defines a failure of deterrence to mean a full-scale exchange of all
nuclear weapons available to the U.S. and Russia, an event that will be termed World War III. Approximately 20
million people died as a result of the first World War. World War IIs fatalities were double or triple that number
chaos prevented a more precise deter- mination. In both cases humanity recovered, and the world today bears few
scars that attest to the horror of those two wars. Many people therefore implicitly believe that a third World War
would be horrible but survivable, an extrapola- tion of the effects of the first two global wars. In that view, World
War III, while horrible, is something that humanity may just have to face and from which it will then have to recover.
In contrast, some of those most qualified to assess the situation hold a very different view. In a 1961 speech to a
joint session of the Philippine Con- gress, General Douglas MacArthur, stated, Global war has become a

longer does it possess even the chance of the winner of a duel. It contains now only
the germs of double suicide. Former Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara ex- pressed a similar view:
Frankenstein to destroy both sides. If you lose, you are annihilated. If you win, you stand only to lose.

If deterrence fails and conflict develops, the present U.S. and NATO strategy carries with it a high risk that

Western civilization will be destroyed [McNamara 1986, page 6]. More recently, George Shultz,
William Perry, Henry Kissinger, and Sam Nunn4 echoed those concerns when they quoted President Reagans belief
that nuclear weapons were totally irrational, totally inhu- mane, good for nothing but killing, possibly destructive of
life on earth and civilization. [Shultz 2007] Official studies, while couched in less emotional terms, still convey the
horrendous toll that World War III would exact: The

resulting deaths would be far beyond any

precedent. Executive branch calculations show a range of U.S. deaths from 35 to 77 percent (i.e., 79-160 million
dead) a change in targeting could kill somewhere between 20 million and 30 million additional people on each
side .... These calculations reflect only deaths during the first 30 days. Additional millions would be injured, and
many would eventually die from lack of adequate medical care millions of people might starve or freeze during
the follow- ing winter, but it is not possible to estimate how many. further millions might eventually die of
latent radiation effects. [OTA 1979, page 8] This OTA report also noted the possibility of serious ecological damage
[OTA 1979, page 9], a concern that as- sumed a new potentiality when the TTAPS report [TTAPS 1983] proposed

nuclear explosions and their resultant fire- storms

could usher in a nuclear winter that might erase homo sapiens from the face of the
earth, much as many scientists now believe the K-T Extinction that wiped out the dinosaurs resulted from an
that the ash and dust from so many nearly simultaneous

impact winter caused by ash and dust from a large asteroid or comet striking Earth. The TTAPS report produced a
heated debate, and there is still no scientific consensus on whether a nuclear winter would follow a full-scale
nuclear war. Recent work [Robock 2007, Toon 2007] suggests that

even a limited nuclear exchange or

could have devastating long-

one between newer nuclear-weapon states, such as India and Pakistan,

lasting climatic consequences due to the large volumes of smoke that would be generated by fires in
modern megacities. While it is uncertain how destructive World War III would be, prudence dictates that we apply
the same engi- neering conservatism that saved the Golden Gate Bridge from collapsing on its 50th anniversary
and assume that

preventing World War III is a necessity not an option.

Proliferation risks extinction:

David Wolfe (Director, Oppenheimer Institute for Science and International
Co-operation), 11/13/2011
(, Accessed 8/3/2014, rwg)
weapons are the greatest threat to human survival ever invented. Benn is old
I feel it necessary to respond to the naive letter from Tony Benn et al (Letters, 10 November).

enough, as am I, to remember that some 150,000 human beings were evaporated in August 1945. What is not
generally realised is that the weapons used in Japan were mere firecrackers compared to what is available today.
We must now consider the instantaneous deaths of millions. The cause of non-proliferation was greatly hampered
by the lies of Bush and Blair over Iraq. But there is a real and increasing threat. There is no military need or use for
the horrible instruments. Not from Israel, and certainly not from the UK, where 25bn is foolishly allocated for their
renewal. Israel is the only country with such arms whose very existence has been threatened by Iran. And Iran has
directly violated the non-proliferation treaty for decades, not years, as carefully documented by David Albright and
colleagues at the Institute for Science and International Security. The poison of weapon development has spread
from North Korea to Libya, even to Syria, all regimes with the blood of their citizens on their hands.

It is

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Aniruddh Kannan & Jai Pranav Konuru

proliferation that is the huge threat. Every country that develops these
weapons represents a huge increase in the threat to civilisation. Every weapon
produced increases the possibility of their use, whether on purpose, by accident, or
by terrorism. It is unlikely that Iran's programme can be stopped, and military action is useless, stupid and
counterproductive. But no country should be allowed such production with immunity. Some international actions,

Illegality which threatens the

survival of the human race cannot be allowed to proceed unhindered .
probably in the form of diplomatic pressure and sanctions, are called for.

Diseases cause extinctionnew viruses are constantly

Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Science, 2009 ( Human
Extinction: The Uncertainty of Our Fate,
Accessed 8/3/2014, rwg)
In the past, humans have indeed fallen victim to viruses. Perhaps the best-known
case was the bubonic plague that killed up to one third of the European population in
the mid-14th century (7). While vaccines have been developed for the plague and some other infectious diseases ,
new viral strains are constantly emerging a process that maintains the
possibility of a pandemic-facilitated human extinction. Some surveyed students
mentioned AIDS as a potential pandemic-causing virus. It is true that scientists have been unable thus far to find a
sustainable cure for AIDS, mainly due to HIVs rapid and constant evolution. Specifically, two factors account for the
viruss abnormally high mutation rate: 1. HIVs use of reverse transcriptase, which does not have a proof-reading
mechanism, and 2. the lack of an error-correction mechanism in HIV DNA polymerase (8). Luckily, though, there are
certain characteristics of HIV that make it a poor candidate for a large-scale global infection: HIV can lie dormant in
the human body for years without manifesting itself, and AIDS itself does not kill directly, but rather through the

for more easily transmitted viruses such as

influenza, the evolution of new strains could prove far more consequential. The
simultaneous occurrence of antigenic drift (point mutations that lead to new strains)
and antigenic shift (the inter-species transfer of disease) in the influenza virus could produce a new
version of influenza for which scientists may not immediately find a cure. Since
weakening of the immune system. However,

influenza can spread quickly, this lag time could potentially lead to a global influenza pandemic, according to the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (9). The most recent scare of this variety came in 1918 when bird flu
managed to kill over 50 million people around the world in what is sometimes referred to as the Spanish flu
pandemic. Perhaps even more frightening is the fact that only 25 mutations were required to convert the original
viral strain which could only infect birds into a human-viable strain (10).

The plan allows for the US to demonstrate its leadership in

renewable energy to mitigate climate change:
Jacqueline S. Rolleri (law degree, Roger Williams University) 2010 (Roger
Williams University Law Review, Spring 2010, Lexis/Nexis, Accessed 7/22/14,
States like Rhode Island and Massachusetts will continue to push forward with the development of offshore wind
farms, despite the unavoidable setbacks that have already occurred. The recent release of the MMS final rules is a

the federal government recognizes the urgent need to move away from
conventional energy resources and move toward alternative renewable energy
resources such as offshore wind farms . Several issues arising under the new legislation have been
identified and must be improved upon if the United States is serious about becoming a
global leader in the offshore wind energy industry. While an OZMP is one
sign that

recommendation for how the federal government may attempt to streamline the regulatory process and [*247]

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Aniruddh Kannan & Jai Pranav Konuru

plan for cumulative impacts, there are certainly other viable options that the government should take into

Regardless of which regulatory scheme ultimately prevails, the United

States should continue to push forward with the development of alternative
renewable energy projects in order to meet future energy demands and help
mitigate the detrimental effects of global warming .

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Aniruddh Kannan & Jai Pranav Konuru

New and more permanent investment tax credit key to the
future of offshore wind development.
Clean Energy Leadership Institute, Boosting Off-Shore Wind: S. 401
Incentivizing Off-Shore Wind Power Act December 2, 2013!Boosting-Off-Shore-Wind--S-401-IncentivizingOff-Shore-Wind-Power-Act-/cakg/F75C0686-B9CC-4B06-979E-DBBD6E6AE488
Off-shore wind is an enormous untapped renewable energy resource for the United
States. Just as the production tax credit is boosting on-shore wind farms, the offshore wind market is in need of a federal tax incentive to spur this emerging
industry. The Incentivizing Off-Shore Wind Power Act (S. 401) would extend the
investment tax credit (expiring at the end of 2013) for the production of electricity
from offshore wind and incentivize key projects just ramping up. Off-shore wind
power on the Great Lakes and U.S. coastlines provides an untapped resource four
times the energy potential of the entire U.S. electric power system.[1] The Obama
Administration has made commitments to offshore wind through the National
Offshore Wind Strategy and Climate Action Plan, but federal policy can also play a
role through legislation. S. 401 Incentivizing Off-Shore Wind Power Act will: allow a
30% investment tax credit (ITC) for the first 3 GW of qualifying offshore wind
projects provide a tax credit, that once awarded, will allow companies five years to
install the project.[2] The Department of Energy identifies one of the key industry
challenges for off-shore wind as the high capital cost of deployment.[3] Off-shore
wind development faces the double challenges of high initial capital cost and longer
development timelines (roughly five to seven years). Most projects, scheduled to
come online in 2017, are at the beginning stages of securing financing. [4] Such
long-term investment requires separate incentive from the on-shore production tax
credit (PTC). Offshore wind investment tax credits are considered vital for this new
industry because of long lead times and construction of wind turbines.[5] There are
thirteen in-progress U.S. offshore wind projects. Located in ten states on the
Atlantic, Pacific, Great Lakes and Gulf of Mexico coasts, none of these projects is
currently in operation. On the Atlantic coast, off-shore wind has the capability to
provide peak productivity at peak demand hours outside of key urban areas.
Offshore wind projects are also well placed to enter into power purchase
agreements with neighboring utilities. The Cape Wind Project in Massachusetts has
already partnered with NSTAR Electric. Between 2006 and 2012, DOE provided $300
million in funding for off-shore wind projects (72 separate grants, partnering with 30
private industry firms).[6] The Department of Interior has begun holding
competitive leases for off-shore wind projects in federal waters as a part of the
Climate Action Plan. However, executive actions cannot be the only factors in
helping off-shore wind succeed. Stable federal tax policy will help reduce costs and
speed up deployment. According to the Department of Energys National Offshore
Wind Strategy, the U.S. offshore wind industry has the potential to support 200,000
manufacturing, construction, operation, and supply chain jobs and spur $70 billion

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Aniruddh Kannan & Jai Pranav Konuru

in annual investments by 2030.[7] In order to do so, federal policy must be in place

to provide certainty rather than lurching from year-to-year extensions.

Investment tax credit extension necessary to the future of

offshore wind.
Ned Haluzan 2013 US offshore wind needs prolonged
EU is currently leading the way in offshore wind energy development while China is
also looking to make the most of it. In United States there are several offshore wind
projects in development in Massachusetts, Rhode Island and New Jersey but so far
US still hasn't installed a single offshore wind turbine. The key to the future of US
offshore wind energy industry will be the availability of investment tax credit. Under
the current regulations, at the end of 2012, the US investment tax credit for
offshore wind will expire making the financing of expensive offshore wind projects
extremely difficult. US offshore wind industry therefore needs new bill and Senator
Thomas Carper has already proposed the Incentivizing Offshore Wind Power Act
under which wind energy producers would obtain a tax credit of 30 percent of
qualified investments for the first 3,000 MW of offshore wind facilities placed into
service. It is up to the Congress to make the final decision. The offshore wind energy
projects have several important advantages over wind energy projects on land.
They are able to produce more electricity because of more frequent and powerful
offshore winds and do not kill migratory birds and bats. The only real downside of
offshore wind facilities is their high construction costs. Why does US need strong
offshore wind energy sector? Many energy analysts agree that the future of wind
energy lies offshore and if United States wants to be an important player in global
clean energy map offshore wind energy is certainly one of the best ways to go.
Offshore wind energy is not only good for environment but also for economy
because it is capable producing thousands of new jobs and spurring economic
growth along the way.