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Lecture 1 for ITC

Lecture 1 for ITC

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random experiment or we observe a random

phenomenon.

In probability study, a sample space is needed

which is the set of all possible outcomes of

any random experiment.

It is the connectivity b/w Descriptive and

Inferential Statistics.

Drawing a FISH can help us understand the logical

thinking:

lifting your pen once it touches the paper and

without striking out any of your drew line.

diagram

A Venn diagram is a rectangular area showing

the Sample Space & having some circles inside

(usually overlapped) which are showing the

Events.

S

B

A

c

S={a,b,c,d,.,n}

d,e

a,b

g,h

A={a,b,c,f,g,h}

i

f

B={c,d,e,g,h,i}

J,k

l,m,n

C={f,g,h,I,j,k}

C

S

B

For

should

For AB

AB,

it, itshould

AB,

A

, it should

bebebe

For

AB,

should

The Demorgans Law

Random

Experiment

Expectation

Probability

Distribution

Random

Variable

Criteria

Numeric

Counting Rules

Sample

Space

Events

Outcomes

Non Mutually Exclusive (Overlapping)

Probability

Independent

P(AB)=P(A) P(B)

Dependent

Conditional Probability

Gives us a picture of

the variability

and central tendency.

Can also show the

amount of skewness

and Kurtosis.

Central Tendency

Dispersion

2

3

Probability Distributions

For any frequency distribution, we need a

variable while for any probability distribution,

we need a random variable

Random Variable is the data which can be

obtained by converting the outcomes of any

sample space into numeric codes after defining

a particular criteria, so;

Random Experiment is necessary for a

probability distribution

(outcomes) called a random experiment

For example, mixing acid and base will

produce salt and water (Its an experiment)

but;

Tossing a Dice or a Coin, or Drawing a card

from well shuffled deck will produce a random

result (these are examples of random

experiments), so in each random experiment,

we collect all possibilities (outcomes) and

make a sample space

Random Experiments Related to a Fair Coin:

Random Experiment # 1: Tossing a fair-coin once

S={H,T}

21=2 outcomes

Random Experiment # 2: Tossing a fair coin twice or tossing 2

fair coins, once.

S={HH, HT, TH, TT}

22=4 outcomes

Random Experiment # 3: Tossing a fair coin thrice or tossing 3

fair coins, once.

S={HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, THT, TTH, HTT, TTT} 23=8 outcomes

In general, 2n showing the two sided coin is being tossed n times

Formation of Dichotomous SS

A truth Table can help us forming the sample

space: For e.g. Sample Space of Rand. Exp. # 3.

The formation rule is simple S. No. 1 2 3

1

H

H

H

Values of Every next column

2

T

H

H

should be doubled of the

3

H

T

H

preceding column.

4

T

T

H

5

H

H

T

Outcomes can be observed

6

T

H

T

Horizontally.

7

H

T

T

st

nd

rd

Random Experiment #4: Tossing a fair dice, once

S={1,2,3,4,5,6} 61=6 outcomes

Random Experiment #5: Tossing a fair dice, twice or

Tossing two fair dice once

S={11, 12, 13, 14, 15,16

21, 22, 23, ,26

.....

61, 62, 63, ., 66}

62=36 outcomes

Random Experiment #6: Tossing a fair coin and a fair

dice, once

S={H1,H2,H3,H4,H5,H6,T1,T2,.T6} 21 x61=12 outcomes

Random Experiment #7: Tossing 2 fair coins & a fair dice

once.

S={HH1,HH2,HH3,HH4,HH5,HH6

HT1,HT2,HT3,,HT6

..

TT1,TT2,.,TT6}

22x61=24 outcomes

Random Experiment #8: Drawing a card from a

well shuffled Deck of playing cards.

S={ Hearts

Diamonds

Clubs

Spades

King+Queen+Jack+Ace+2+3++10

King+Queen+Jack+Ace+2+3++10

King+Queen+Jack+Ace+2+3++10

King+Queen+Jack+Ace+2+3++10}

Total=

13

13

13

13

52

Formation of Events

What is an Event?

Random Experiment #3

We always collect the matching outcomes from the sample

space after viewing the Event statement.

VENN Diagram

For e.g. if we consider the Random Exp. # 2:

B

A

Object: Tossing a fair coin twice, S={HH,HT,TH,TT}

TH

HH HT

Event(s):

A={First toss should be a Head}

TT

A={HH, HT}

B={Exactly one Tail in the outcome}: B={HT,TH}

Thus we formed two Non-Mutually Exclusive Events

Computing Probability

Probability of an Event

P(A) stands for probability of an Event A such that;

P(A) = n(A)/n(S)

Where,

n(A) is the number of outcomes present in Event A.

n(S) are the number of outcomes present in the

Sample Space.

Probability is a proportion of Event in a Sample Space.

For any Event A; 0 P(A) 1 where A S

Random Experiment # 2: Tossing a fair coin twice or

tossing two fair coins, once.

Sample Space

S={HH,HT,TH,TT},

Event(s)

A={First toss should be a Head},

A={HH, HT}

B={Exactly one Tail in the outcome}: B={HT, TH}

Therefore Probabilities will be,

P(A)=2/4=0.5

50% chances

P(B)=2/4=0.5

50% chances

Interpreting Probability

Probability occurs against every Event and should be interpreted

in 3 components;

1) Object of the Random Experiment

2) Value of the Probability

3) Event Statement

of getting head in the first toss.

Similarly, P(B)=0.5 would be:

of getting exactly one tail in both tosses.

For the same Random Experiment # 2, the following

operations showing results and relevant interpretations

needed (where U=OR, =AND, A=not(A):

Since

S={HH,HT,TH,TT}

A={HH,HT} B={HT,TH}

Therefore,

AUB={HH,HT,TH}

P(AUB)=3/4=0.75 75%

If we toss a fair coin twice, we have 75% chances of getting

head in the first toss OR exactly one Tail in both tosses.

AB={HT}

P(AB)=1/4=0.25 25%

A=S-A={TH,TT}

P(A)=2/4=0.50

50%

P(A)=1-P(A)

Practice Questions

Q1) If we toss a fair coin three times, determine the

following probabilities:

a) P(A)=Probability of getting exactly one Head in all tosses?

b) P(B)=Probability of getting Tail in the first toss?

c) P(C)=Probability of getting exactly one head AND one

tail?

P(One head One Tail)

d) P(D)=Probability of NOT getting exactly one head in all

tosses? P(A)

e) P(F)=Probability of Either getting exactly one head in all

tosses OR tail in the first toss?

P(AUB)

Q2) If we toss a fair dice twice, determine the following

Probabilities: (Ref. Random Experiment #4)

a) P(A)=Probability of getting same number on both Dice?

b) P(B)=Probability of getting odd number in both Dice?

c) P(C)=Probability of getting sum of both numbers equals

to 5?

d) P(D)=Probability of getting an odd number AND an even

number on two Dice respectively.

e) P(F)=Probability of NOT getting the same number on

both Dice?

Q3) If we toss a fair COIN and a Fair DICE once, determine

the following Probabilities: (Ref. Random Experiment #6)

a) P(A)=Probability of getting exactly One head in the coin?

b) P(B)=Probability of getting an odd number on Dice?

c) P(C)=Probability of getting exactly one Head with an Odd

number on Dice? P(AB)

d) P(D)=Probability of getting a number less than 4 on Dice.

e) P(F)=Probability of NOT getting exactly one Head in the

coin? P(A)=1-P(A)

Q4) If we toss two fair COINS and a Fair DICE once,

determine the following Probabilities: (Ref. Random

Experiment #7)

a) P(A)=Probability of getting exactly One head in the coin?

b) P(B)=Probability of getting an odd number on Dice?

c) P(C)=Probability of getting exactly one Head with an Odd

number on Dice? P(AB)

d) P(D)=Probability of getting a number less than 4 on Dice.

e) P(F)=Probability of NOT getting exactly one Head in the

coin? P(A)=1-P(A)

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