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Case NEG

NYCUDL 2014 – 2015

Statement ...................................................................................................................................................... 2
Aquaculture NEG.......................................................................................................................................... 3
Arctic NEG ................................................................................................................................................... 9
Warming NEG ............................................................................................................................................ 18


Case NEG

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NEG work for 10/20/2014
Jeff Zhang


Case NEG

NYCUDL 2014 – 2015

Aquaculture NEG
Federal agencies already did the plan in 2011 – didn’t solve
Bryan Walsh – 7/8/11, senior editor at TIME, Can the U.S. Close Its Seafood Trade Deficit?, TIME,
The federal government has shown signs that it wants to jumpstart the domestic aquaculture industry.
Last month NOAA and the Department of Commerce finalized a new set of national aquaculture
guidelines, with particular attention paid to growing shellfish production and potentially opening
aquaculture in the rich Gulf of Mexico. ―This is going to provide a national approach to sustainable
domestic marine aquaculture,‖ Larry Robinson, the assistant secretary for conservation and management
at NOAA, told reporters last month.‖ By developing sustainable domestic marine farming we increase
food security, keep dollars here and support working waterfronts.‖ All of those goals are possible, but it‘s
going to take more than official guidelines. Americans will need to decide that a domestic aquaculture
industry is worth having, worth supporting—and worth the space. ―‖Fish farming is one of the most
efficient ways to produce protein, and we can and should be doing more of it,‖ says NOAA‘s Rubino.
―But whether we choose that path remains to be seen.‖

Plan doesn’t cause commercialization – not economical
James Kirkley – July 2008, Professor of Marine Science in the Department of Fisheries Science at the
College of William and Mary, ―The Potential Economic Ramifications of Offshore Aquaculture,‖
Offshore Aquaculture in the United States: Economic Considerations, Implications & Opportunities,
Despite apparent evidence that offshore aquaculture is not only economically feasible but also capable of
generating substantial contributions to the U.S. economy, there remain many obstacles which may hinder
its development and adoption. In this study, it was demonstrated that production of five species popular
with U.S. consumers is economically feasible, provided certain conditions prevailed. Foremost among
these conditions is that prices received will hold at certain levels. Given the increasing level of imports, it
is quite possible that prices received for the primary products will decrease. Also, if resource conditions
do improve in the future, the landings of wild-caught cod and winter flounder would likely expand. The
sea scallop resource is already at a high level of biomass. In addition, all of the species can be produced
near-shore as opposed to offshore, and there are likely to be cost savings for inshore or near-shore
operations. There remain many other concerns which may limit the development of offshore aquaculture
outlined in other chapters in this report. There are potential uncertainties about obtaining loans, which
will be necessary for satisfying up front investment costs. In all instances, these investment costs are quite
high and will likely deter individuals or firms from investing in offshore aquaculture. There is
considerable uncertainty about what constitutes best management practices (BMPs) for various
operations. Present analysis does, however, support the development of offshore aquaculture in waters
within 25 nautical miles of shore. Finally, it is concluded that operations farther offshore will require
larger projects, or farms, and higher levels of investment.


Case NEG

NYCUDL 2014 – 2015

States solve in the squo – California proves
Eric Bradley – 1/8/14, Press-Telegram, California Coastal Commission approves aquaculture facility
off Long Beach shore,
The California Coastal Commission on Wednesday approved the state‘s first aquaculture farm to be
located in federal waters about eight miles offshore of Long Beach. Known as Catalina Sea Ranch, the
facility by KZO Sea Farms will primarily grow Mediterranean mussels on 45 lines anchored in the sea
floor and suspended horizontally by buoys from a depth of a few feet to 200 feet, in a 100-acre patch of
ocean near two existing oil production platforms. The willingness of KZO to agree to extensive
monitoring for its first-of-a-kind project helped earn unanimous approval from commissioners. Phillip
Cruver, co-founder of Long Beach-based KZO, said the ranch, which was previously approved by the
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, will ―put a small dent‖ in the nation‘s $10-billion annual seafood
importation deficit. According to National Marine Fishery Service data, 33.7 million pounds of live
farmed mussels were imported into the United States in 2012, most of it from Prince Edward Island in
eastern Canada. ―We could grow our own (mussels) and save that 3,500 air miles of carbon footprint,‖
Cruver told the commission. Organizations like Heal the Bay, though not opposed to the project, argued
for frequent inspections and video reviews of the site. ―I think it‘s imperative that we are monitoring
almost every aspect of this project,‖ said Dana Murray, a Heal the Bay marine and coastal scientist. She
also was concerned about KZO‘s plan to cultivate nonnative Pacific oysters, but Coastal Commission
staff said the species, though not native, has already been introduced to California waters and is the No. 1
planted and harvested oyster in the state. Concerns were ameliorated further when KZO said it would
consent to monitoring at the facility beyond the five years outlined in its consistency certification.
Catalina Sea Ranch‘s business plan calls for six years of operation to produce a good return for investors,
though the life of the equipment is 10 years, according to Cruver. He told the Los Angeles News Group
last year that the farm could produce 774,000 pounds of mussels and 18,000 pounds of oysters in the first
year of operation worth more than $1.5 million.


Case NEG

NYCUDL 2014 – 2015

Regulations not key – scientific hurdles offshore aquaculture development – Gulf proves
Kristen M. Fletcher – 2004, Marine Affairs Institute @ Roger Williams University School of Law,
Law & Offshore Aquaculture: A True Hurdle or a Speed Bump?, Efforts to Develop a Responsible
Offshore Aquaculture Industry in the Gulf of Mexico: A Compendium of Offshore Aquaculture
Consortium Research, Bridger, C.J., editor,
The legal and regulatory environment surrounding offshore aquaculture is cited consistently as one of the
major hurdles to its development in the United States. Despite the adoption of the National Aquaculture
Act in 1980, the lack of a sound legal and regulatory structure is still cited as the culprit for lack of a U.S.
industry. In reality, the present regulatory regime is inadequate because it is based upon laws that were
adopted to address issues or industries other than aquaculture. Because aquaculture facilities affect
traditionally governed areas such as water supply, the use of navigable waters, food production, and
environmental protection, multiple federal and state agencies have jurisdiction over the industry. While
these agencies have excelled at regulating and permitting land-based aquaculture regimes with refined
and stream-lined licensing procedures and regulations, the offshore aquaculture regulatory structure looks
significantly different with no single lead agency and differences in regulations between states and
regions. Many claim that these issues must be resolved before a sustainable industry can emerge. Law and
policy research conducted in tandem with the environmental and technological research of the Gulf of
Mexico Offshore Aquaculture Consortium revealed some specific legal mechanisms that need to be
addressed but highlighted the reality that offshore aquaculture can develop within the present structure.
This chapter describes some of these immediate legal hurdles but concludes that political and scientific
issues serve as much greater hurdles than the legal and regulatory regime.

Fishing is inevitably doomed – climate change
MSC Mar 16, 2010 (Marine Stewardship Council, committed to being the world‘s leading certification
program for sustainable wild-capture seafood, ―Climate change and fish‖ Mar 16, 2010. 7/4/14 J.M.)
Our oceans and fish stocks may be under threat from changing water temperatures. Fisheries and communities
around the world could be affected.¶ If our climate changes, the temperature of oceans, seas and lakes will change
too. We don‘t yet know the full impact on fishing and marine ecosystems, but it seems likely that vulnerable marine species will be
under more pressure.¶ Many fisheries will be seriously affected as the ecosystems that underpin them face
new and uncertain challenges.¶ How will climate change affect fish and fisheries?¶ The Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change predicts that:¶ as sea temperatures change, fish numbers will change and fish will move to
different areas¶ some species will go extinct in particular areas¶ predators and prey will move to different
areas, disrupting food chains¶ wetlands and other low lying habitats where fish reproduce will be covered
by rising sea levels¶ water in lakes will get warmer¶ bad weather may stop fishers going to sea¶ These changes may affect
fisheries worldwide, but the impacts are likely to be particularly damaging for fishers in developing countries.


Case NEG

NYCUDL 2014 – 2015

Too many barriers to offshore aquaculture – no technology, investment risk, price competition, and
foreign subsidization
Upton and Buck – 10, Harold F. Upton and Eugene H. Buck, Analyst/Specialist in Natural
Resources Policy @ CRS, August 9, 2010, Open Ocean Aquaculture,
Since open water aquaculture is a relatively new industry, many potential operators are inexperienced
with the technical requirements for open ocean facilities. Historically, development has been limited by
technology that requires water depths of 100-150 feet; this narrow band of acceptable depth exists from ¼
mile to about 50 miles offshore, depending on location. Open ocean aquaculture facilities, moored or floating
miles off the coast in a high-energy environment, experience numerous environmental conditions that
differ from nearshore aquaculture operations, including exposure to wind and wave action from all
directions, short and steep wave patterns, strong currents, seasonal anoxic (oxygen-lacking) conditions, and
other severe ocean conditions that can prevent operators from being able to access their cages for days to
weeks.7 Systems have been developed to overcome these obstacles, including cage designs that do not deform under strong current and wave
loads, submersible cages, and single-point moorings. Cage-mounted autonomous feeding systems have been developed that can operate both at
the surface and submerged. Others have developed closed containment systems for open ocean use to address environmental concerns.
Universities and private-sector research interests are developing automated buoys that can monitor the condition of stock and feed fish on a
regular basis for weeks at a time. Other research groups are working on automated, floating cages that would travel with the currents and be
tracked by satellite.8 These ship-like structures could float on favorable oceanic currents or be held in the same location with low-energy
thrusters. Financing Estimating profitability and securing

financing is difficult for new open ocean aquaculture
companies because of an uncertain regulatory environment, the risk associated with operating in exposed open ocean
locations, the risk of catastrophic events (e.g., severe storms), limited operational experience, and high capital
start-up costs. […] More pessimistic critics suggest that open ocean aquaculture is unlikely ever to have an
adequate economic return on investment, and that investment should rather be focused on improving
nearshore or shore-based aquaculture. Eventually, the level of capital investment in open ocean aquaculture will likely depend on
whether its rate of return is competitive with investment alternatives. Economic Potential The economic potential of U.S.
aquaculture will likely depend on both operational costs and product prices. Costs will largely depend on several
factors, including U.S. regulation, the technology adopted, and national and international economic conditions. Economic conditions will
determine labor, energy, capital, and other input costs. Prices of U.S. aquaculture products will likely depend on world demand and the prices of
competing products. Competing products include similar imported cultured products, similar wild species, and other agricultural product
substitutes such as chicken, pork, and beef. The

level of government support in other countries is often greater than
that provided in the United States. Some say that government assistance could promote the initial
development of a U.S. open ocean aquaculture industry, but global market forces would likely determine
whether it matures or withers. The United States has been, for the most part, a technological innovator, and the use of marine
resources to farm new species with high market value could give the United States a competitive edge. On the other hand, operating costs
and environmental standards in other countries are often lower. In addition to capital costs, the location of
aquaculture facilities further from shore will necessitate higher costs for fuel, security, and/or
surveillance. Land-based aquaculture products are also likely to compete with offshore aquaculture. […]
They also state that, without domestic financial support, aquaculture innovation will likely come from other
countries already providing greater investment in technology development.


Case NEG

NYCUDL 2014 – 2015

Offshore aquaculture causes dead zones – aff can’t solve without creating EXPLICIT regulations
Tim Eichenberg – 6/8/06, Director, Pacific Regional Office, The Ocean Conservancy, Testimony
Open ocean aquaculture is promoted as a solution to the ocean's diminishing resources. However, it also poses significant risks,
including escapement of fish, damage to the surrounding environment, harmful effects on native fish populations, and pollution. These risks, and
their consequences, are largely dependent upon the location of the operation, its size or scope, the management practices, the capacity of the
receiving water body, and the choice of species to be raised in a particular area. Fish Escapement: Perhaps the single greatest ecological and
economic threat associated with the growth of offshore aquaculture is the potential to introduce invasive species to the surrounding ecosystem
and nearby coastal communities. Millions of farmed fish escape from fish farms because of storms, human error, and predators. According to the
National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) and many other authorities, escapes result in harmful interactions with native fish, including
competition with wild stock for food, habitat and mates; transfer of potentially deadly diseases and parasites to wild stocks; and genetic
modification of wild stocks through inter- breeding.\6\ Farmed fish are vastly different and can weaken the genetic makeup of wild
populations.\7\ Threat of Disease and Pollution: Offshore

aquaculture also presents numerous additional biological
threats to ocean ecosystems. Fish farms, like animal feed lots, produce enormous pollution. The excreta from an
average floating cage farm can produce nutrients and fecal matter equal to a city of 20,000-65,000,\8\ and the potential wastes for a $5
billion U.S. industry--called for by NOAA--would discharge annually the nitrogen equivalent of the untreated
sewage of 17 million people.\9\ Depending upon pollutant composition and the cumulative effects of similar cages in a particular area,
discharges may cause harmful effects on the surrounding environment. Fish farms can change the
chemical and biological structure of the sediment under net pens, and in severe cases cause ``dead zones.''
[…] Without careful legislative coordination of NOAA's jurisdiction and responsibilities with those of
other agencies, we believe problems will persist, with potentially serious environmental consequences.
Moreover, it is imperative that any management regime address specifically and comprehensively the
potentially serious risks of offshore aquaculture to marine ecosystems, consumer health and safety,
fisheries, and fishing communities.

Turns the case – dead zones destroy fish reproduction and cause species extinction
American Chemical Society – 3/29/06, Ocean 'dead zones' trigger sex changes in fish, posing
extinction threat,
Oxygen depletion in the world‘s oceans, primarily caused by agricultural run-off and pollution, could
spark the development of far more male fish than female, thereby threatening some species with
extinction, according to a study published today on the Web site of the American Chemical Society
journal, Environmental Science & Technology. The study is scheduled to appear in the May 1 print issue
of the journal. The finding, by Rudolf Wu, Ph.D., and colleagues at the City University of Hong Kong,
raises new concerns about vast areas of the world‘s oceans, known as "dead zones," that lack sufficient
oxygen to sustain most sea life. Fish and other creatures trapped in these zones often die. Those that
escape may be more vulnerable to predators and other stresses. This new study, Wu says, suggests these
zones potentially pose a third threat to these species — an inability of their offspring to find mates and
reproduce. The researchers found that low levels of dissolved oxygen, also known as hypoxia, can induce
sex changes in embryonic fish, leading to an overabundance of males. As these predominately male fish
mature, it is unlikely they will be able to reproduce in sufficient numbers to maintain sustainable
populations, Wu says.


Case NEG

NYCUDL 2014 – 2015

Aquaculture in squo hurts the environment

Fisheries and Aquaculture Department – 2014, ―Impact of aquaculture on environment,‖ Food
and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,
Much of the current controversy is centered around environmental degradation resulting in some cases
from inadequate coordination and management of development, as well as from irresponsible practices by
some entrepreneurs risking to bring the whole aquaculture sector into disrepute. Major environmental
impacts of aquaculture have been associated mainly with high-input high-output intensive systems (e.g.
culture of salmonids in raceways and cages) the effects of which included discharge of suspended solids, and
nutrient and organic enrichment of recipient waters resulting in build-up of anoxic sediments, changes in
benthic communities (alteration of seabed fauna and flora communities) and the eutrophication of lakes. Large-scale shrimp
culture has resulted in physical degradation of coastal habitats, for example, through conversion of mangrove forests and
destruction of wetlands, salinization of agricultural and drinking water supplies, and land subsidence due to groundwater
abstraction. However, misapplication

of husbandry and disease management chemicals, collection of seed
from the wild (bycatch of non-target species occurring in the collection of wild seed) and use of fishery resources as
feed inputs, are also causing concern. […] Environmental interactions between aquaculture farms, can include
self-pollution and transmission of diseases and occur in areas where the high density of farms forces use
of water contaminated by neighbouring installations, with significant losses of farmed stocks and
financial returns. Effects can also occur at a distance with interchange of living material between farms
and a consequent spread of disease. The pressure to use resources more efficiently, to increase competitiveness and to
respond to market forces is resulting in some areas in trends toward intensification of aquaculture production. These are
associated with more sophisticated farm management, shift to monoculture of high-value species, and the targeting of more
affluent consumers. There is

an increased risk that such trends to intensification will increase environmental
impacts if inappropriate planning and management of such farming systems and, in particular, the
inefficient use of resources and inputs such as equipment and chemicals, are not avoided.

Chemicals used in aquaculture spread destroys local ecosystems.

NPI ’01 NPI National Pollutant Inventory. (2001) Emission estimation technique manual for aggregated
emissions from temperate water finfish aquaculture. Environment Australia, June 2001.
Outbreak of disease is more common in farming operations than the wild as a result of higher levels of
stress in fish, high stocking densities and establishment of conditions conducive to incubation of disease
organisms. Aquaculture provides opportunity for amplification of disease, though notably it also
facilitates early detection of outbreaks due to frequency of testing to protect valuable fish stocks.
Additionally, increased food resources near farm cages attract large concentrations of escaped and wild
fishes, which may act as vectors for the transfer of disease and parasites to other native fish. The use of
chemotherapeutants, such as antibiotics, is a concern because residuals not absorbed by the fish can
potentially enter the environment in uneaten feed and faeces. […] Chemicals are used in finfish
aquaculture for a wide range of applications. Not only are they used in fish health, but also to control
nuisance organisms on equipment such as nets, and to disinfect and improve water quality. The use of
such chemicals raises a number of environmental concerns, and they must be registered with the National
Registration Authority before use.


Case NEG

NYCUDL 2014 – 2015

Arctic NEG
The Arctic Council’s status quo mapping activities solve the entire aff better than their singlecountry effort could
CCPP, 6/18 Climate Change Policy & Practice, a knowledgebase of UN and intergovernmental
activities addressing global climate change; ―Arctic Council to Produce Harmonized Map Covering
Region,‖ 6/18/2014,
18 June: The

Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF), the Arctic Council's biodiversity working group,
signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to guide national mapping organizations in the Arctic in
producing a harmonized map covering the entire Arctic region, with data on, inter alia, climate and
biodiversity. The aim of the Arctic Spatial Data Infrastructure (Arctic SDI) is to help harmonize, combine and integrate
diverse data sets. A wide range of data with a spatial component has been generated in the Arctic.
However, the management of such data has mainly been national or issue-specific and, thus, many of the
existing datasets are distributed among many organizations. Thus, the Arctic SDI will also contribute to
improved sharing and analysis across the Arctic, and will be critical in helping to understand the impacts
of climate change on nature, biodiversity management, and the adaptability and sustainable use of all
living resources in the Arctic. Spatial data can be used in the Arctic as a tool for integrated planning.
Arctic SDI users include: the Arctic Council Working Groups; scientific groups engaged in Arctic
research; governmental authorities involved in decision regarding the Arctic; and the broader public,
including the private sector, NGOs and media. The national mapping organizations participating in the
project are from the US, Canada, the Russian Federation, Denmark and the Faroe Islands, Greenland,
Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden.


Case NEG

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Specifically, the NOAA has enough maps of the Arctic – our ev post-dates and is from a NOAA
Clark, 3/17 Kate Clark, Acting Chief of Staff for NOAA‘s Office of Response and Restoration;
―NOAA and Private Industry Share Data to Improve Our Understanding of the Arctic,‖ 3/17/2014, // MS
Gathering data and information about Arctic air, lands, and waters is critical to NOAA‘s

missions. We work to protect coastal
communities and ensure safe navigation, healthy oceans, effective emergency response, and accurate
weather forecasting. But we need to be able to access remote areas of land and ocean to get that information in the first place. The
expansive, harsh Arctic environment can make this access risky, expensive, and at times impossible.¶ The
U.S. Arctic is a unique ecosystem that requires unique solutions for solving problems. To continue improving our understanding of the Arctic,

NOAA must seek innovative ways to gather essential data about the climate, ocean, and living things in
this part of our world.¶ The Rules of Sharing¶ We recognize that no single agency or organization has enough resources to do this alone.
We have to collaborate our research efforts and share data with others working in the Arctic. An
innovative agreement between NOAA and industry [PDF] was signed in August 2011 to help identify and
pursue data needs in the Arctic.¶ This agreement between NOAA, Shell, ConocoPhilips, and Stat Oil sets
up a framework for sharing Arctic data in five areas:¶ meteorology.¶ coastal and ocean currents,
circulation, and waves.¶ sea ice studies.¶ biological science.¶ hydrographic services and mapping.¶ Before we
incorporate this data into NOAA products and services, we will conduct stringent quality control on all data provided to us under this agreement.

Having access to additional high-quality data will improve NOAA‘s ability to monitor climate change and
provide useful products and services that inform responsible energy exploration activities in the region.¶
We are committed to openness and transparency in our science. In addition to reviews to ensure the
quality of the data that we receive, NOAA will make the data obtained under this agreement available to
the public.¶ Exactly what data is shared and how it is shared is laid out in a series of annexes to the overarching agreement. NOAA and the
three companies have identified the need for at least three annexes. The first [PDF] and second [PDF] are complete. The third, which covers
hydrographic services and mapping, is being drafted now.¶ Why Sharing (Data) Is Caring¶ This

collaboration will leverage
NOAA‘s scientific expertise and these companies‘ significant offshore experience, science initiatives, and
expertise. By establishing this data-sharing agreement and the associated annex agreements, NOAA is
better equipped to protect the Arctic‘s fragile ecosystem. We will be providing the public—including
energy companies, mariners, native communities, fishers, and other government agencies—with a
stronger scientific foundation, which we believe will better support decision making and safe economic
opportunities in this rapidly changing area.¶ NOAA envisions an Arctic where decisions and actions
related to conservation, management, and resource use are based on sound science and support healthy,
productive, and resilient communities and ecosystems.¶ We are working hard, in an era of shrinking budgets, to make sure
that we are good stewards of the natural resources found in the Arctic. We will hold our industry partners to our high
standards, and make sure that as we learn more, we also prepare for and minimize the risks involved in
Arctic oil and gas development and increased maritime transportation.¶ We look forward to working with these industry
partners to implement this data-sharing agreement. This agreement is the type of innovative partnership we‘d like to build with other entities
willing to share data and work with us—leveraging the best of what we each can bring to the table. ¶


Case NEG

NYCUDL 2014 – 2015

Status quo solves Arctic information – US Navy has it covered
Reuters, 2/27 ―U.S. Navy Eyes Greater Presence In Arctic As Sea Ice Melts,‖ 2/27/2014, // MS
WASHINGTON, Feb 27 (Reuters) - The

U.S. Navy is mapping out how to expand its presence in the Arctic
beginning about 2020, given signs that the region's once permanent ice cover is melting faster than
expected, which is likely to trigger more traffic, fishing and resource mining.¶ "The Arctic is all about
operating forward and being ready. We don't think we're going to have to do war-fighting up there, but we
have to be ready," said Rear Admiral Jonathan White, the Navy's top oceanographer and navigator, and
director of the Navy's climate change task force.¶ "We don't want to have a demand for the Navy to operate up there, and have
to say, 'Sorry, we can't go,'" he said.¶ The Navy this week released an "aggressive" update to its 2009 Arctic plan
after a detailed analysis of data from a variety of sources showed that seasonal ice is disappearing faster
than had been expected even three years ago.¶ The document said the Bering Strait was expected to see open water conditions
about 160 days a year by 2020, with the deep ocean routes of the Transpolar transit route forecast to be open for up to 45 days annually by 2025. ¶

The document includes dozens of specific tasks and deadlines for Navy offices, including calling for
better research on rising sea levels and the ability to predict sea ice thickness, assessment of satellite
communications and surveillance needs, and evaluation of existing ports, airfields and hangars.¶ It also
puts a big focus on cooperation with other Arctic nations and with the U.S. Coast Guard, which is
grappling with the need to build a new $1 billion ice-breaking ship.¶ The Navy is conducting a submarine exercise in the
Arctic next month, and plans to participate in a joint training exercise with the Norwegian and Russian military this summer. ¶ White said the
Navy's new projection was aimed at answering "the billion dollar question" of how much it would cost to prepare for an increased naval presence
in the Arctic, and trying to determine what investments were needed when. ¶ "We're trying to use this road map to really be able to answer that
question," White said, noting that early smaller-scale investments could help avert bigger bills in the future.¶ He said efforts

were under
way now in the Navy to identify specific requirements for weather-hardened ships and other equipment,
land-based infrastructure, and better bandwidth for satellite and shore-based communications capabilities.¶
The Office of Naval Research and the Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency are
already funding numerous Arctic-focused projects with industry, White said, predicting increased publicprivate projects in recent years.¶ He said he realized U.S. military budgets are under pressure, but hoped the plan would help
undergird Arctic-related budget requests in coming years by showing lawmakers that the Navy had carefully studied and evaluated its options. ¶
"As far as I'm concerned, the Navy and Coast Guard's area of responsibility is growing," White said. "We're growing a new ocean, so our budget
should be growing in line with that."¶ The Navy's plan does not alter any current funding, but calls for identification of future ships and other
weapons by the third quarter of fiscal 2014, which ends Sept. 30, in time to be considered for future budget deliberations. ¶ "Our challenge over
the coming decades is to balance the demands of current requirements with investment in the development of future capabilities," Chief of Naval
Operations Admiral Jonathan Greenert wrote in an introduction. "This

roadmap will ensure our investments are informed,
focused, and deliberate as the Navy approaches a new maritime frontier."¶ The Navy has long operated submarines in
the region, and flies surveillance and unmanned aircraft as needed, but by 2020 it plans to boost the number of personnel trained for Arctic
operations. By 2030, as the Arctic Ocean becomes increasingly ice-free, the Navy said it would have the training and personnel to respond to
crises and national security emergencies.¶ The

Navy's updated road map noted that the Arctic has significant oil, gas
and mineral resources, including some rare earth minerals now supplied mainly by China, and estimated
hydrocarbon resources of over $1 trillion.¶ Those resources are attractive to big multinational corporations
and other countries, but they face big financial, technical and environmental risks due to the harshness of
the environment, and the unpredictable weather, White said.¶ "If we do start to see a rush, and people try to
get up there too fast, we run the risk of catastrophes," he said, urging a more gradual, measured move into
the region by the private sector. "Search and rescue in the cold ice-covered water of the Arctic is not somewhere we want to go."
(Reporting by Andrea Shalal; Editing by Ken Wills)¶


Case NEG

NYCUDL 2014 – 2015

Arctic shipping isn’t competitive
Waldie 14 - Paul Waldie has been an award-winning journalist with The Globe and Mail, (―A reality
check on the Northwest Passage ‗boom‘‖, January 7, 2014,
There are other challenges as well. The

Panama Canal is being widened, meaning larger ships will be able to pass
through. And Russia has been far more assertive in staking its claims in the Arctic and developing its own
passageway, the Northern Sea Route, which stretches from the Barents Sea to the Bering Strait. The Russians
have five Arctic icebreakers with plans to build three nuclear-powered ones. They are also building 10 navigational and rescue centres and already have a network of
ports along the route. Transit traffic along the Northern Sea Route has increased from 34 ships in 2011 to about 50 this year.

China has demonstrated

an interest in the Northern Sea Route and another shorter option – sending ships across the top of the world along the Transpolar
Route which skirts the North Pole. By contrast Canada is building one icebreaker and a fleet of eight patrol boats. Much
of the increased shipping activity in the Canadian Arctic has been from cruise ships, government vessels and barges used to resupply remote communities. The
Coast Guard is also developing Northern Marine Transportation Corridors, a network of waterways
through the Arctic that are most commonly used which would then be provided with marine services. But
none of these Arctic routes will ever be more than of limited use, says Malte Humpert, executive director of the Washingtonbased Arctic Institute. Arctic shipping can‘t compete with the Panama Canal, Suez Canal or Strait of Malacca near
Singapore, which sees up to 60,000 ships annually. Container ships in particular won‘t travel through the Far North because these ships typically make
several stops during a transit. ―As a transit route I really don‘t see the Arctic happening where someone says, ‗Oh we
have Japanese computer screens or cars going to Europe.‘ That will never happen,‖ Mr. Humpert said. ― It‘s too unreliable, the season is just
two or three months at the moment. Even if the ice melts dramatically it will never be a year-round season
because the ice will always be there during winter.‖
No internal link – Arctic shipping is seasonal which kills its economic value

CBC, 4/27 CBC, Canadian news agency citing a report by the US Government Accountability Office;
―No Benefit To Developing Arctic Shipping: U.S. Report,‖ 4/27/2014, // MS
A new report issued by the U.S. Government Accountability Office suggests there's no benefit to
developing shipping infrastructure in the Arctic. ¶ The organization serves as a watchdog for federal
spending, and says deep-water ports, mapping and other infrastructure improvements will only go so far
in attracting more ships.¶ For the container-ship companies, the report says one problem is Arctic routes would be
seasonal, while that industry needs steady, year-round schedules. ¶ The report also says mainstream cruise lines aren't
drawn to the Arctic because the 10-day journey, typically in Alaska, is too long, the scenery unvarying
and interesting ports too scarce.
Shipping doesn’t solve – additional concerns
Campbell 12 - Caitlin Campbell USCC Policy Analyst, Foreign Affairs and Energy , (‗U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission Staff
Research Report, ―China and the Arctic: Objectives and Obstacles‖, April 13, 2012,

The benefits shipping companies might gain from a shortened Arctic passage could be offset, however, by
logistical and technical challenges. First, shippers would have to contend with unpredictable and often
violent weather conditions. These include ice storms, extreme temperatures that can impair deck
machinery, and destructive and undetectable blocks of ice.29 Such obstacles can block passages in the
region and cause costly delays.

Case NEG

NYCUDL 2014 – 2015

The affirmative will drastically increase air pollution
ACCESS 13 -ACCESS is the arctic climate change economy and society, L. Marelle*1 , J. L. Thomas,1,
A. Roiger2 , J. C. Raut1 , K. S. Law1 , H. Schlager 2 , C. Granier 1 , L. Granier 1 , T. Onishi 1 , J. D. Fast
3 , W. I. Gustafson 3, 1UPMC Univ. Paris 06; Université Versailles St-Quentin; CNRS/INSU; UMR
8190, LATMOS-IPSL, Paris, France 2 Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für Luftund Raumfahrt (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany 3Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland,
Washington, USA, 2013,
The Arctic is undergoing very rapid changes, such as decreasing sea-ice extent during summer. As a result, transit shipping via the Northern Sea Route, along the

As shipping through the Arctic increases, emissions of air pollutants (aerosols,
are likely to become more significant. In addition to shipping,
emissions linked to extraction of Arctic oil/gas deposits and associated infrastructure will also increase. As
part of the EU ACCESS project, we are investigating the role of current and future anthropogenic activities in the Arctic on regional air
pollution and the concentrations of short-lived climate forcing agents in the Arctic troposphere.
northern coast of Scandinavia and Russia, is already occurring.
ozone, and their precursors) into the lower troposphere

Air pollution causes extinction
Driesen 3 (David M., Associate Professor – Syracuse University College of Law, Fall/Spring,
―Sustainable Development and Air Quality: The Need to Replace Basic Technologies with Cleaner
Alternatives,‖ 10 Buff. Envt'l. L.J. 25, Lexis)
Air pollution can make life unsustainable by harming the ecosystem upon which all life depends
and harming the health of both future and present generations . The Rio Declaration articulates six key principles that are relevant to air pollution. These
principles can also be understood as goals, because they describe a state of affairs that is worth achieving. Agenda 21, in turn, states a program of action for realizing those goals. Between them, they aid understanding of sustainable
development‘s meaning for air quality. The first principle is that "human beings. . . are entitled to a healthy and productive life in harmony with nature", because they are "at the center of concerns for sustainable development." While
the Rio Declaration refers to human health, its reference to life "in harmony with nature" also reflects a concern about the natural environment. 4 Since air pollution damages both human health and the environment, air quality
implicates both of these concerns. Lead, carbon monoxide, particulate, tropospheric ozone, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides have historically threatened urban air quality in the United States. This review will focus upon
tropospheric ozone, particulate, and carbon monoxide, because these pollutants present the most widespread of the remaining urban air problems, and did so at the time of the earth summit. 6 Tropospheric ozone refers to ozone fairly
near to the ground, as opposed to stratospheric ozone high in the atmosphere. The stratospheric ozone layer protects human health and the environment from ultraviolet radiation, and its depletion causes problems. By contrast,
tropospheric ozone damages human health and the environment. 8 In the United States, the pollutants causing "urban" air quality problems also affect human health and the environment well beyond urban boundaries. Yet, the health
problems these pollutants present remain most acute in urban and suburban areas.

Ozone, carbon monoxide, and particulate cause very serious public

health problems that have been well recognized for a long time. Ozone forms in the atmosphere from a reaction between volatile organic compounds, nitrogen oxides, and sunlight. 10 Volatile organic compounds
include a large number of hazardous air pollutants. Nitrogen oxides, as discussed below, also play a role in acidifying ecosystems. Ozone damages lung tissue. It plays a role in triggering asthma attacks, sending thousands to the
hospital every summer. It effects young children and people engaged in heavy exercise especially severely. Particulate pollution, or soot, consists of combinations of a wide variety of pollutants. Nitrogen oxide and sulfur dioxide
contribute to formation of fine particulate, which is associated with the most serious health problems. 13 Studies link particulate to tens of thousands of annual premature deaths in the United States. Like ozone it contributes to
respiratory illness, but it also seems to play a [*29] role in triggering heart attacks among the elderly. The data suggest that fine particulate, which EPA did not regulate explicitly until recently, plays a major role in these problems. 16
Health researchers have associated carbon monoxide with various types of neurological symptoms, such as visual impairment, reduced work capacity, reduced manual dexterity, poor learning ability, and difficulty in performing
complex tasks. The same

pollution problems causing current urban health problems also contribute to long lasting ecological problems .


Case NEG

NYCUDL 2014 – 2015

New shipping routes will uniquely carry invasive species
Luis 14 - Alvarinho J. Luis Ph. D. National Centre for Antarctic ... · Polar Remote Sensing, (―Melting
Arctic opens new passages for invasive species‖, 5/30/2014,
Two new

shipping routes have opened in the Arctic: the Northwest Passage through Canada, and the Northern Sea Route, a 4800-km stretch along
the coasts of Russia and Norway connecting the Barents and Bering seas. While new opportunities for tapping Arctic natural
resources and inter-oceanic trade are high, commercial ships often inadvertently carry invasive species.
Organisms from previous ports can cling to the undersides of their hulls or be pumped in the enormous tanks of ballast water inside their hulls. Now that
climate change has given ships a new, shorter way to cross between oceans, the risks of new invasions are
escalating. Trans-Arctic shipping is a game changer that will play out on a global scale. The economic
draw of the Arctic is enormous. Whether it's greater access to the region's rich natural resource reserves or
cheaper and faster inter-ocean commercial trade, Arctic shipping will reshape world markets. If
unchecked, these activities will vastly alter the exchange of invasive species, especially across the Arctic,
north Atlantic and north Pacific oceans. The first commercial voyage through the Northwest Passage -- a carrier from British Columbia loaded
with coal bound for Finland – took place in September 2013. Meanwhile, traffic through the Northern Sea Route has been rising rapidly since 2009. The scientists
project that at the current rate, it could continue to rise 20% every year for the next quarter century, and this does not take into account ships sailing to the Arctic itself.
For the past 100-plus years, shipping between oceans passed through the Panama or Suez Canals.

Both contain warm, tropical water, likely to

kill or severely weaken potential invaders from colder regions. In the Panama Canal, species on the hulls of ships also had to cope
with a sharp change in salinity, from marine to completely fresh water. The Arctic passages contain only cold, marine water. As
long as species are able to endure cold temperatures, their odds of surviving an Arctic voyage are good.
That, combined with the shorter length of the voyages, means many more species are likely to remain alive throughout the
journey. Though the routes pose major risks to the north Atlantic and north Pacific coasts, the Arctic is also becoming an attractive destination. Tourism is
growing, and it contains vast stores of natural resources. The Arctic holds an estimated 13% of the world's untapped oil and 30% of its natural gas. Greenland's supply
of rare earth metals is estimated to be able to fill 20 to 25% of global demand for the near future. Until

now the Arctic has been largely
isolated from intensive shipping, shoreline development and human-induced invasions, but the scientists
said that is likely to change drastically in the decades to come. The good news is that the Arctic
ecosystem is still relatively intact and has had low exposure to invasions until now. This novel corridor is
only just opening. Now is the time to advance effective management options that prevent a boom in
invasions and minimize their ecological, economic and health impacts."
NSF 10 (National Science Foundation Press Release 10 -244, What Triggers Mass Extinctions? Study
Shows How Invasive Species Stop New Life, 12/29/10,
An influx of invasive

species can stop the dominant natural process of new species formation and trigger

mass extinction events, according to research results published today in the journal PLoS ONE. The study of the collapse of Earth's
planet's current ecosystems, which are struggling with
biodiversity loss, could meet a similar fate. Although Earth has experienced five major mass extinction
events, the environmental crash during the Late Devonian was unlike any other in the planet's history. The
marine life 378 to 375 million years ago suggests that the

actual number of extinctions wasn't higher than the natural rate of species loss, but very few new species arose. "We refer to the Late Devonian as
a mass extinction, but it was actually a biodiversity crisis," said Alycia Stigall, a scientist at Ohio University and author of the PLoS ONE paper.
"This research significantly contributes to our understanding of species invasions from a deep-time perspective," said Lisa Boush, program
director in the National Science Foundation (NSF)'s Division of Earth Sciences, which funded the research. "The knowledge is critical to
determining the cause and extent of mass extinctions through time, especially the five biggest biodiversity crises in the history of life on Earth. It
provides an important perspective on our current biodiversity crises."


Case NEG

NYCUDL 2014 – 2015

New invasive species also collapses our military readiness
Pratt 04 (Robert Pratt, Colonel, Masters in Strategic Studies, USAWC, ―Invasive Threats to the
American Homeland, Parameters, Spring 2004,
One of the primary effects of a terrorist introduction of an invasive species would be economic damage. The 1999
Cornell University study estimated the cost of invasive species to be $138 billion annually in their effects and control
measures in the United States.29 This equates to more than one-third of the funding allocated to the total military budget in the 2003 National
Defense Authorization Act. According to the Congressional Budget Office, discretionary spending for defense as a percentage of the total GDP
has been decreasing from 1962 to 2001. Domestic needs compete heavily for tax dollars. Given the drastic increases forecast in spending for
Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid in the years ahead, expenditures for national defense will undoubtedly be constrained. If an adversary
chooses the right invasive

species, the additional cost to counter its effects could be dramatic. Coupled with a strained
economy and a tight budget, it could become difficult to sustain the funds to fully man and equip US military
forces at current levels. It might become extremely difficult to fund costly transformation forces. Therefore, the second- or third-order
effects of an invasive species attack could mean less money for discretionary spending and ultimately a
weakened military. Second, military resources could also be diverted to meet an emerging crisis. Military forces could be needed to
cordon off infested areas or to assist in caring for the sick from an invasive bacteria or virus. Consider an outbreak of Ebola or smallpox. National
Guard forces would be diverted for homeland security missions and thus not be available for contingencies elsewhere or to support major
regional wars. Military forces also would suffer direct casualties from such an attack, as the same invasive microbes or pathogens that attack the
civilian population would attack military personnel. Whole Army divisions and specialized units could be rendered physically ineffective from an
invasive disease. The ensuing psychological impact would be immense. Third, invasive

species could diminish the industrial
capability and productivity of the United States to support a war. Resources used to mobilize the nation's
industrial base conceivably would be diverted to control the effects of the invasive species. Personnel needed to
support industry and augment military forces could be incapacitated or be unwilling to work in areas where they would be exposed to infectious
bacteria. Invasive species might directly attack timber or other natural resources used as raw material for industry, thereby forcing the United
States to rely on imports or other expensive alternatives for raw materials.

New shipping lanes exacerbates warming
Storey 14 - Ian Storey is a Senior Fellow at ISEAS, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, (―Will Arctic
Shipping Routes Eat Singapore‘s Lunch? Not Anytime Soon, and Maybe Never‖, April 28, 2014,
Will increased shipping on the NSR mitigate climate change? Not necessarily. While the NSR reduces the
geographical distance between Europe and Asia, ice will always be present along the route even during
the summer, and pushing through ice requires ships to burn more fuel than on the open sea. Vessels
traversing Arctic waters require heating for crew members and even for certain kinds of cargo which can
be damaged by low temperatures, both of which increase fuel burn. Ice-strengthened ships are heavier
than other kinds of vessels and consume greater amounts of fuel. Most importantly, ocean-going vessels
today burn low-quality fuels that emit a fine particulate matter known as black carbon. Deposits of black
carbon in the Arctic reduces the reflectivity of ice thus increasing heat absorption and hence ice-melt.16
Until green ship technologies become widely available, therefore, increased traffic on the NSR could
actually exacerbate global warming.


Case NEG

NYCUDL 2014 – 2015

Opening the NSR will cause an inevitable oil spill
AI 13 – ArticInfo, ―Infrastructure of the Northern Sea Route and Environmental Protection in the Arctic
(Federal Media Monitoring: August 19-25, 2013‖,
The route is very beneficial for us, but it also creates problems. How can we effectively monitor all the
possible types of environmental pollution? How can we react quickly to emergency situations? At present - and this
figure also was mentioned at the Conference - the time taken for rescue equipment to reach the Arctic in the event of a disaster is, on average, 7 days. This is not just a long time; if we are talking

This is
because, if there is a major disaster - and all the Arctic countries agree on this point - no one country will
be able to cope on its own […] But, as recent events have shown, international environmental organisations
do not trust Rosneft‘s statements, basing their scepticism on data which indicates that the state company
occupies one of the top spots in terms of oil spills. […] Oil spills are a regular occurence at the company‘s facilities, argues
about a fire on the rig, for example, or a burst oil pipeline, it is an eternity. What can be done? This is why the countries of the Arctic Council meet at these conferences.

Greenpeace, and the total amount is supposedly such that Rosneft occupies first place in terms of spillages among the world's largest oil companies. It is not difficult to imagine what will happen

By some strange coincidence, this unenviable
leadership of Rosneft is barely featured on the television programme Oil on the channel Rossiya 24. At least the
with the Arctic waters, if such careful workers set about exploring the deposits at the bottom of the sea.

various successes and triumphs of Rosneft are mentioned in this programme much more often. This is probably exactly what Rosneft considers ―objective information‖ (Rosneft covers up an
Arctic disaster, Sobesednik, 23.08.2013).

WWF 10 – World Wildlife Foundation funded by the NOAA, (―Drilling for Oil in the Arctic: Too Soon, Too Risky‖, 2010,
Planetary Keystone The Arctic and the subarctic regions surrounding it are important for many reasons. One is their enormous biological diversity: a kaleidoscopic array of land and seascapes
supporting millions of migrating birds and charismatic species such as polar bears, walruses, narwhals and sea otters. Economics is another: Alaskan fisheries are among the richest in the world.

the Arctic is not just
important, but among the most important places on the face of the Earth. A keystone species is generally defined as one
whose removal from an ecosystem triggers a cascade of changes affecting other species in that ecosystem.
The same can be said of the Arctic in relation to the rest of the world. With feedback mechanisms that
affect ocean currents and influence climate patterns, the Arctic functions like a global thermostat. Heat
balance, ocean circulation patterns and the carbon cycle are all related to its regulatory and carbon storage
functions. Disrupt these functions and we effect far-reaching changes in the conditions under which life
has existed on Earth for thousands of years. In the context of climate change, the Arctic is a keystone ecosystem for the
entire planet. […] But until now, a major spill has not occurred in the Arctic. This is not due to an exemplary safety record, but to the fact that most of the Arctic has
been inaccessible to offshore oil and gas exploration because of its remoteness and extreme environment.
Their $2.2 billion in annual catch fills the frozen food sections and seafood counters of supermarkets across the nation. However, there is another reason why

However, as rising global temperatures start to melt the sea ice that has been the Arctic‘s first line of defense against an encroaching world, all this is changing. Within 20 years—perhaps sooner,
according to some researchers—the Arctic Ocean will be ice free in the summer.5 The long-sought Northwest Passage will soon be open to transoceanic shipping throughout much or even most
of the year. New oceanic routes made possible by changing sea ice conditions mean more shipping, with increased probabilities of accidents and oil spills.6 Existing routes will become more
congested with vessel traffic carrying oil both as cargo and fuel.

New sea routes will be exposed to the risk of pollution and spills for

the first time. The world‘s major oil companies also are gearing up for what, if it is not carefully managed, could be the next Gold Rush—a race to mine Arctic waters for what the
U.S. Geological Survey describes as possibly the ―largest unexplored prospective area for petroleum remaining on Earth.‖7 Indeed, the rush has already started. In 2008, its last year in office, the
Bush Administration opened a vast area of the Chukchi Sea to leasing for the first time in more than a decade. Oil companies bid nearly $3.4 billion—a record amount—on 488 blocks within the

Marine spills can
result from any phase of oil extraction, storage or transportation: from well blowouts during subsea
exploration or production, acute or slow releases from subsea pipelines, releases from on-land storage
tanks or pipelines that travel to water, or accidents involving oil transportation vessels or vessels carrying
large quantities of fuel oil. Dynamic ice cover, low temperatures, reduced visibility or complete darkness, high winds, and extreme storms add to the probability of an
nearly 30 million acres opened for drilling, in spite of the fact that little is yet known about the impacts drilling would have on the marine environment.8

accident or error in the harsh Arctic environment.9 The sea ice may be melting, but the Arctic is, and will remain, among the harshest, coldest and most remote places on Earth. Just as the risks of
a spill could be greater in the Arctic, so could the impacts.


Case NEG

NYCUDL 2014 – 2015

Shipping creates acidification hot spots
Hasselov et al 13 -- Ida-Maja Hassellöv1,*, David R. Turner2, Axel Lauer3,4 andJames J. Corbett, Ida-Maja Hassellöv (―Shipping emissions can lead to
high local ocean acidification‖, july 18, 2013,

Strong acids formed from shipping emissions can produce seasonal ‗hot spots‘ of ocean acidification, a recent
study finds. These hot spots, in ocean areas close to busy shipping lanes, could have negative effects on local
marine ecology and commercially farmed seafood species. Shipping emissions can lead to high local
ocean acidification Oceans have become more acidic since pre-industrial times. The average global ocean pH – which decreases with increasing acidity – has dropped by 0.1
because the seas have absorbed 30-40% of manmade CO2. However, it is not only CO2 that can acidify oceans. Shipping emissions,
a significant source of atmospheric pollution, annually release around 9.5 million metric tons of sulphur
and 16.2 million metric tons of nitric oxides. When dissolved in seawater, these pollutants are converted into the strong sulphuric and nitric acids, adding to
ocean acidification. Increasing acidity poses a threat to marine ecosystems, harming species such as coral and
algae, as well as commercial aquaculture species, such as shellfish. The researchers used state of the art computer modelling techniques
and datasets to create a high resolution simulation of global shipping emissions‘ effects on ocean acidity. The simulation calculated the acidifying impacts of shipping sulphur and nitric oxide
emissions on a month by month basis, over one year. In addition to shipping-related influences on acidity, the model also included many physical and environmental factors, such as ocean
surface water mixing and atmospheric effects. The results agreed with previous studies of the average annual ocean acidificat ion, but, importantly, revealed significant differences between

Ocean acidification was highest in the northern hemisphere, occurring in ‗hot spots‘ close to
coastal areas and busy shipping lanes during the summer months. These ‗hot spots‘ coincide with peak activity of some biological processes,
regions and seasons.

such as plankton blooms and fish hatching, where they may cause greater harm. On a local scale, the acidification – a pH drop of 0.0015-0.0020 – was equal to CO2‘s global annual acidifying

The model did not include some coastal ocean areas, such as the Mediterranean Sea, as there were
limitations in the oceanographic atlases used. However, acidification is likely to be high in these areas
given the heavy shipping traffic from ports. International regulation is in place to reduce shipping atmospheric sulphur emissions through the International

Maritime Organization‘s Emission Control Areas (ECA), which are in force in four ocean areas, including the Baltic and North Seas. One technology commonly used to achieve ECA targets is
‗seawater scrubbing‘, where exhaust pollutants are removed using seawater. This study drew on data from 2000 and 2002, prior to the enforcement of ECAs. However, the researchers note that
seawater scrubbing, without additional steps to neutralise the acids that it produces, causes acidification in regions where biodiversity or commercial aquaculture may be most negatively affected.

These previously overlooked sources of ocean acidification and policy impacts could be used to inform
future discussions of controls relating to shipping emissions or ocean acidification.
Acidification devastates the arctic, causes extinction
Solbu 13 - Erlend Lånke Solbu works for the The Norwegian Broadcasting Corporation and writes for ScienceNordic, (‗Arctic waters growing alarmingly
acidic‖, May 11, 2013,

The seas of the world are becoming increasingly acidic and the Arctic is hardest hit. […] As the food chains
in the Arctic are relatively short and simple, marine ecosystems are succeptible to changes when external
factors impact key species. ―Something totally unique is happening. This is the first time we humans are actually changing
the entire planet. We are acidifying the oceans. Our most optimistic prediction is that the seas will be
twice as acidic within a few decades − by the end of this century,‖ says the marine and evolutionary biologist Sam Dupont of the
University of Gothenburg in a press release. Dupont points out that this problem is accelerating in the Arctic. ―So the big question is what consequences the ocean
acidification will have on the arctic species, ecosystems and the functions they have.‖ A global problem The researcher
group writes that the oceans‘ ability to absorb the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide has strongly diminished. The CO2 currently in the atmosphere and that
which will be discharged in coming decades will make ocean acidification a global problem. […] ―One
example is the possible extinction of types of the starfish brittle stars. If you expose their eggs to the
degrees of acidification we expect in a few decades they die within a few days,‖ says Dupont. He points out that while we
might not care about this species, other species that live on brittle stars will be impacted when they die out: ―Scientists
think that similar effects will occur in the Arctic and that they can be even more severe in this region.‖
Impacting life in the Arctic Humans will also be the losers as marine ecosystems collapse. It will affect commercial
fishing in the rich northern waters and undermine the way of life and food supplies for indigenous peoples in the Arctic. ―Changes in the sea will affect human
life in the Arctic in many ways, primarily economically. When fish get scarcer, those whose lives are based on fishing will be impacted. The same goes for the fishing industry,‖ points out
Professor Rashid Sumaila of the Fisheries Economics Research Unit of University of British Columbia. ―We will also notice an effect on tourism and outdoor life. People come from all over the
world to experience animal life in the Arctic. This too will be affected by the changes. If there are no animals to see, nobody will come.‖


Case NEG

NYCUDL 2014 – 2015

Warming NEG
They can’t solve developing countries emitting CO2—means they can’t prevent largest emissions
Lefeber 12 Doctor Chair in International Environmental Law the University of Amsterdam, 12
(Rene, ―Polar Warming: An Opportune Inconvenience,‖ Online:

The single biggest environmental threat for the Polar Regions, however, is global warming. Global
warming is addressed by the international community through the regulation of the concentrations of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that have an anthropogenic origin (mitigation).91 The temperature in the Polar
Regions rises faster than anywhere else on Earth. The causes are not yet fully understood, but it is presumed that specific regional features, such
as the observed

decrease in the power of snow and ice to reflect sunlight (albedo effect), contribute significantly
to the relative fast rise of the temperature. This is caused, amongst others, by the deposit of smut in the Polar Regions
which was released into the atmosphere by the emission of black carbon (or soot). Developing countries are the main
source of emissions of black carbon in the 21st century. The emissions of industrialized countries have
been significantly reduced in the second halve of the last century. Public health considerations were the main reason for
the implementation of various measures, such as the use of catalysts in cars, to achieve emission reductions of black carbon. Black carbon
is a greenhouse gas under the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Climate
Change Convention), but it is not subject to the emission targets of the Kyoto Protocol to that Convention (Art. 3.1
and Annex A). Furthermore, developing countries are not subject to the Kyoto Protocol emission targets even
though these countries are now the main source of contemporary emissions of this greenhouse gas
Warming‘s not an existential risk – adaptation, mitigation, geoengineering, and empirically no runaway.
Muller, Writer on Ethics and Existential Risks, 12
(Jonatas, ―Analysis of Existential Risks‖, Online:
A runaway global warming, one in which the temperature rises could be a self- reinforcing process,
has been cited as an existential risk. Predictions show that the Arctic ice could melt completely within a
few years, releasing methane currently trapped in the sea bed (Walter et al. 2007). Methane is a more
powerful greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Abrupt methane releases from frozen regions may have
been involved in two extinction events on this planet, 55 million years ago in the Paleocene– Eocene
Thermal Maximum, and 251 million years ago in the Permian–Triassic extinction event. The fact that
similar global warmings have happened before in the history of our planet is a likely indication that
the present global warming would not be of a runaway nature. Theoretical ways exist to reverse
global warmings with technology, which may include capturing greenhouse gases from the
atmosphere, deflecting solar radiation, among other strategies. For instance, organisms such as algae
are being bioengineered to convert atmospheric greenhouse gases into biofuels (Venter 2008). Though
they may cause imbalances, these methods would seem to prevent global warming from being an
existential risk in the worst case scenario, but it may still produce catastrophic results.


Case NEG

NYCUDL 2014 – 2015

Plan is too little, too late – enough CO2 in the atmosphere that we’re past the tipping point

Garnet, Senior Analyst at Investology, 2010
(Slowing CO2 emissions cannot end global warming, but removing CO2 from the atmosphere will,

Scarcely a day goes by without some announcement as to yet another effort to limit CO2 emissions, here or
there, for the purpose of fighting global warming. Yet, all such attempts are futile given that so much CO2
has already accumulated in the atmosphere that even if we ended all CO2 emissions today, global
warming would probably continue to increase unabated. However, as explained below, we do have the technology to extract
CO2 from the atmosphere and it is due to inept thinking on the part of United Nations scientists that we are not applying it. Before going into
details, it might be useful to frame the problem: It is since the advent of the industrial revolution circa 1,850 that factories and transportation
caused a large and enduring increase in the amount of CO2 emissions. This phenomenon has been compounded by the rapid increase in the
population given that humans emit CO2 as they breathe. As a result, an

enormous quantity of CO2 has accumulated in the
atmosphere given that we emitted more than could be absorbed by plants and by the sea. So much so, that the
amount of new CO2 that we emit nowadays is a drop in the bucket compared to the quantity of CO2 that has already accumulated in the
atmosphere since around 1,850 as the atmospheric concentration of CO2 increased by about 30%. It is this enormous quantity of atmospheric CO2
that traps the heat from the Sun, thus causing about 30% of global warming. The

point is that, if we are to stop or reverse
global warming, we need to extract from the atmosphere more CO2 than we emit. However, all we are
currently attempting is to limit emissions of CO2. This is too little, too late and totally useless inasmuch it
could reduce our CO2 emissions by only 5% at best, while achieving nothing in terms of diminishing the amount of atmospheric CO 2. Rather
than wasting precious time on attempts to LIMIT our CO2 emission, we should focus on EXTRACTING
from the atmosphere more CO2 than we are emitting. We have a proven method for this that couldn't be simpler, more
effective and inexpensive, so what are we waiting for?


Case NEG

NYCUDL 2014 – 2015

CO2 doesn’t cause ocean feedback loops – it’s all natural

Beisner, Associate Professor of interdisciplinary Studies in Government and Public
policy at University of St. Andrews, 10
(Calvin, ―Forget Global Warming Mini Ice Age May Be on Its Way‖, Online:

The UK's MailOnline did just that this week under the headline The mini ice age starts here. Lead paragraph? " The

bitter winter
afflicting much of the Northern Hemisphere is only the start of a global trend towards cooler weather that is
likely to last for 20 or 30 years, say some of the world's most eminent climate scientists ." Right. MailOnline reporter David
Rose doesn't call them "the world's leading climate skeptics." He calls them "some of the world's most
eminent climate scientists"--and he goes on to cite "Mojib Latif, a leading member of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC)," "Anastasios Tsonis, head of the University of Wisconsin Atmospheric Sciences Group," and "William Gray, emeritus
Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at Colorado State University." Contrary to fears of inexorably diminishing Arctic sea ice, Rose cites the
U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center as reporting that "Arctic summer sea ice has increased by 409,000 square miles, or 26 per cent,
since 2007." Though snow's been unusual for most of the southern half of the United Kingdom in recent decades, the Mail published the
accompanying satellite photo of Great Britain during the recent cold snap. The island is essentially all covered with snow. Rose reported

record lows as far south as Cuba--something I can attest to, living near Miami in south Florida, where we experienced
sub-freezing weather over the weekend. He quoted Tsonis as saying that last week 56% of the United States was
covered by snow--something that hasn't happened in several decades. And the "'Arctic oscillation'--a
weather pattern that sees the development of huge 'blocking' areas of high pressure in northern latitudes ,
driving polar winds far to the south . . . is at its strongest for at least 60 years. As a result, the jetstream--the high-altitude wind that
circles the globe from west to east and normally pushes a series of wet but mild Atlantic lows across Britain--is currently running not over
the English Channel but the Strait of Gibraltar." Consequently, most of the Northern Hemisphere is much colder this

winter than it's been in decades--and the Southern Hemisphere is cooler, too. According to Rose, Latif, Tsonis, and
other scientists attribute the cold shift primarily to a shift in the world's dominant ocean circulations--the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation--from a warm phase to a cool phase, something that happens about every 20 to
30 years. "The scientists' predictions also undermine the standard climate computer models, which assert that the
warming of the Earth since 1900 has been driven solely by man-made greenhouse gas emissions and will continue as long as carbon dioxide
levels rise. They say that their research shows that much of the warming was caused by oceanic cycles when

they were in a 'warm mode' as opposed to the present 'cold mode' ." That's a point made by Dr. Roy W. Spencer in the
science chapter of the Cornwall Alliance's new document A Renewed Call to Truth, Prudence, and Protection of the Poor: An Evangelical
Examination of the Theology, Science, and Economics of Global Warming and illustrated in the graph below. "A significant share of

the warming we saw from 1980 to 2000 and at earlier periods in the 20th Century was due to these cycles,"
said Latif, "perhaps as much as 50 per cent. They have now gone into reverse, so winters like this one will become
much more likely. Summers will also probably be cooler, and all this may well last two decades or longer.
The extreme retreats that we have seen in glaciers and sea ice will come to a halt . For the time being, global
warming has paused, and there may well be some cooling." Tsonis also believes that the ocean current cycles dominated
global climate change in the 20th century, including the post-1970s, the period many point to as driven by human greenhouse
gas emissions, but he doesn't venture to attribute specific percentages to the natural and human causes. "I do not believe in catastrophe
theories," Rose quoted him as saying. "Man-made warming is balanced by the natural cycles, and I do not trust

computer models which state that if CO2 reaches a particular level then temperatures and sea levels will
rise by a given amount. These models cannot be trusted to predict the weather for a week, yet they are running them to give
readings for 100 years." Gray went farther: "Most of the rise in temperature from the Seventies to the Nineties was natural.
Very little was down to CO2--in my view, as little as five to ten per cent." Gray, Tsonis, and Latif all agreed that the
findings about the ocean currents undermined the credibility of the computer climate models on which the
IPCC and other alarmists rely.


Case NEG

NYCUDL 2014 – 2015

No extinction
NIPCC, Bipartisan nongovernmental organization, 11
(Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, ―Surviving the unprecedented climate change of the IPCC,‖ Online:
In a paper published in Systematics and Biodiversity, Willis et al. (2010) consider the IPCC (2007) "predicted climatic changes for the next
century" -- i.e., their contentions that "global temperatures will increase by 2-4°C and possibly beyond, sea levels will rise (~1 m ± 0.5 m), and
atmospheric CO2will increase by up to 1000 ppm" -- noting that it is "widely suggested that the magnitude and rate of these changes will result in
many plants and animals going extinct," citing studies that suggest that "within the next century, over 35% of some biota will have gone extinct
(Thomas et al., 2004; Solomon et al., 2007) and there will be extensive die-back of the tropical rainforest due to climate change (e.g. Huntingford
et al., 2008)." On the other hand, they indicate that some biologists

and climatologists have pointed out that "many of the
predicted increases in climate have happened before, in terms of both magnitude and rate of change (e.g.
Royer, 2008; Zachos et al., 2008), and yet biotic communities have remained remarkably resilient (Mayle and Power,
2008) and in some cases thrived (Svenning and Condit, 2008)." But they report that those who mention these things are often "placed in
the 'climate-change denier' category," although the purpose for pointing out these facts is simply to present "a sound scientific basis for
understanding biotic responses to the magnitudes and rates of climate change predicted for the future through using the vast data resource that we
can exploit in fossil records." Going on to do just that, Willis

et al. focus on "intervals in time in the fossil record when
atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased up to 1200 ppm, temperatures in mid- to high-latitudes
increased by greater than 4°C within 60 years, and sea levels rose by up to 3 m higher than present,"
describing studies of past biotic responses that indicate "the scale and impact of the magnitude and rate of
such climate changes on biodiversity." And what emerges from those studies, as they describe it, "is evidence for rapid
community turnover, migrations, development of novel ecosystems and thresholds from one stable
ecosystem state to another." And, most importantly in this regard, they report "there is very little evidence for broadscale extinctions due to a warming world." In concluding, the Norwegian, Swedish and UK researchers say that "based on such
evidence we urge some caution in assuming broad-scale extinctions of species will occur due solely to
climate changes of the magnitude and rate predicted for the next century," reiterating that "the fossil record
indicates remarkable biotic resilience to wide amplitude fluctuations in climate."


Case NEG

NYCUDL 2014 – 2015