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ASCE 7-10 Wind Speed Map

Peter J. Vickery
Applied Research Associates, Inc.
8537 Six Forks Road, Suite 600
Raleigh, NC, 27615

Objectives of Presentation

Rationale behind 300, 700 and 1700 return period


maps
Basis for new wind speed maps
Basis for re-introduction of Exposure D
Basis for missile impact area

Facts About the ASCE 7-05 Wind


Speed Map

In most of the non-hurricane US mainland, the


mapped values are exactly a 50 year mean
recurrence interval (MRI)
Wind speeds in hurricane prone regions are NOT 50
year MRI values. The mapped values vary from ~50
to ~100 years along the hurricane coastline.
Wind speeds along the hurricane coastline have
been adjusted upward so that when incorporated with
the wind LF, produce a wind load having a consistent
hazard level with the interior US (~700 MRI)

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

ASCE 7-10 Wind Maps

New Hurricane Simulation Model


Windfield
Filling (weakening after landfall)
Holland B (pressure-wind Relationship)
Tracks and pressures (Landfall location and intensity)
Results in Lower Design Wind Speeds
ASCE 7-10 uses a strength or limit state wind speed map (wind
load factor = 1 for strength design, 0.6 for ASD)
Strength map corresponds to 700 year RP
ASCE 7-05 Equivalent Map = V700/1.6
Category III and IV structures use 1700 year RP winds
Category I structures use 300 year RP winds

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

2.5
Hurricane(Miami)

LoadFactor[VT/V50]2

2.0

WLF*1.143=1.828
WLF=1.6

1.5

NonHurricane
[VT/V50]2=[0.36+0.1ln(12T)]2

1.0

0.5

1.00

1.143

0.0
1

50

10

709 1000 1697

100

10000

ReturnPeriod(Years)

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

2.5
Hurricane(NewYorkCity)

LoadFactor[VT/V50]2

2.0

WLF*1.143=1.828
WLF=1.6

1.5

NonHurricane
[VT/V50]2=[0.36+0.1ln(12T)]2

1.0

0.5

1.00

1.143

0.0
1

10

50

100

709 1000 1697

10000

ReturnPeriod(Years)

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

Basis of Design Wind Speeds

New Hurricane Simulation Model


Improved wind field model
New filling model (weakening
after landfall)
New Holland B model
(pressure-wind relationship)
New model for tracks and
pressures (landfall location and
intensity)
Results in lower design wind
speeds

180

Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph)

Hurricanes

160

Non-Hurricanes

140

Combined

120
100
80
60
40
20
0
10

100

1000

10000

Return Period (Years)

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

Additional Data in New Model


Parameter
Number of full scale wind speed traces (with maximum wind
recorded) used to validate windfield model
Number of dropsonde profiles used to verify marine
boundary layer model
Number of hurricanes used to develop Holland B model
Number of landfall hurricanes
Number of landfall intense hurricanes (defined by pressure)
Number of hurricanes used to develop filling model
Number of years of landfall data used to develop model

2000
Model
63

Current
Model
245

650

17
167
70
38
96

35
189
84
57
107

Increase
390%

100%
13%
20%
68%
11%

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

Simulation Methodology
!

987

!9

88

!9

and Long . direction


Site Lat
vs
e inland
Distanc

!
!

991
991

Step 3:
Storm Filling
, 2005)
Central pressure filling (Vickery
B filling

985

985

966

! !

! !
!

95
3

6
96

re
ssu
Pre rval)
tral
te
Cen our in
(6 h

6
96
! ! !

5
97

76

8 7
98 98 987 981 982 73 69
9
! !
9
!
!
!

! ! !9
!

! ! !

Step 2: s
o
re
5 Squa
and V t
new
I
Sam ple new value of
008)
te
hera (2
Compu P c, B, RMW
te
and Wad
Compu from Vickery
B, RMW

8
1
99 99 998 997
!
!

2
98

2
97

10
08

0
95 941
!

993

97

!
!

991

936

970

4
97

10
06

928 !
924 !

998

3
94
5
94

987

d on
rne
) tu

981

987

8
20 0

981!

9
94

983

1
95

986

1
96

t al,
ry e ite
icke
s
el (V m of
p 4: ld mod 250 k }
te
S dfie
V t, r
ithin
Win rm w RMW ,
to
,
s
B
,
if
f {P c
V=

974

9
96

90

973

946

6
97

949

"

984
982

960
954
948

2
98

!
!

88

!9

990

rr
We
torm
p 1:
Ste li ze S nd RM
a
Initia ple B
Sam pute I
Com

rms
or te

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

Wind Model Overview

Described in peer reviewed engineering and


meteorological literature.
Includes asymmetries caused by variable friction as
well as translation speed
Wind speed variation with height model using
dropsonde data
Extensively validated over land and water

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

10

Track Model Verification


Comparison of land fall rates by pressure
Comparisons of modeled and observed translation
speeds, heading, occurrence rates and distance of
closest approach

!9

98

88

!9

g
n
and Lon
directio
Site Lat
inland vs.
Distance

99
0

!
!9

!
99
1
91

981

!
!

0
95 941
!
!

! !

10
100
Return Period (years)

6
96

! ! !

5
97

76

8 7
98 98 987 981 982 73 69
9
! !
9
!
!
!

! ! !9
!

! !
!

95
3

6
96

! ! !

1
8
8
99 99 99 997
!
!

2
98

2
97

936

74

1000

Step 2:
es
o
5 Squar
and V t
new
I
Sample new value of
08)
Comp ute P c, B, RMW
dhera (20
and Wa
Comp utefrom Vickery
W
RM
B,

10
08

re
ssu
P re rval)
tral
te
Cen our in
(6 h

928 !
924 !

4
97

970

966

10
0

998

3
94
5
94

890

on

981!

49

993

ed
turn

991

08)

987

910

985
!

1
95

983

930

1
96

986

984

982

985

987

!
!

974

950

69

946

6
97

"

949

2
98

960
954
948

Central Pressure
(mb)

970

90

al, 20
ry et
icke o f site
l (V
ode 0 km
p 4:
Ste field m in 25 V t, r}
d
ith
Win orm w RMW ,
if st {P c, B,
f
V=

Step 3:
Storm Filling
2005)
Central pressure filling (Vickery,
B filling

88

973

TX
990

!9

W er
torm
p 1:
Ste li ze S d RM
an
ia
Init ple B
Sam p ute I
Com

s
term
ror

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

11

Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph) - Modeled

Charley Validation Summary

Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph)

Hurricane Charley - KPGD


150
120
90
60

120
y = 0.98x
R = 0.92
100

30

0
8/13/04 18:00

80
60
40
Right
Left

20
0
0

8/13/04 19:00

8/13/04 20:00

8/13/04 21:00

20

40

60

80

100

120

Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph) - Observations

8/13/04 22:00

Time (UTC)

Mean Wind Speed (mph)

Hurricane Charley - KPGD

ASOS

Description

KFMY
KMCO
KSFB
KORL
KMIA
KMLB
KPBI
KRSW
FCMP T0
FCMP T1
FCMP T2
FCMP T3
SAUF1

Fort Myers International Airport


Orlando International Airport
Orlando Sanford International Airport
Orlando Executive International Airport
Miami International Airport
Melbourne Regional Airport
Palm Beach International Airport
Ft Myers Regional Airport
FCMP Tower 0
FCMP Tower 1
FCMP Tower 2
FCMP Tower 3
St Augustine C-MAN Platform

120
100
80
60
40
20

0
8/13/04 18:00

8/13/04 19:00

8/13/04 20:00
Time (UTC)

8/13/04 21:00

8/13/04 22:00

Peak Gust Speed


(mph)
Obs
Model
85
81
107
109
94
92
87
98
41
34
49
53
41
37
81
70
54
59
76
82
49
46
39
43
71
65

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

Why Lower Wind Speeds?

New model produces more intense landfalling


hurricanes than the old model but results in lower wind
speeds.
Lower winds largely associated with a new statistical
model for the Holland B parameter, which controls the
wind-pressure relationship.
Paper describing the statistical model for B was
published in the Journal of Applied Meteorology in
December 2008.

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

13

Holland B defines the width and


peakedness of the wind field
60
B=
B=
B=
B=

50
40

RMW
p(r ) pc p exp

0.75
1
1.3
1.5

-1

(ms )

Gradient Balance Wind Speed

RMW B

RMW B Bp exp[( r ) ] r 2 f 2

)
VG (

4
r

30
20
10
0
0

1/ 2

fr
2

10

Distance from Storm Center (r/RMW)

VG max

1020
1010
Pressure e (hPa)

Bp
e

1000
990
980
B=
B=
B=
B=

970
960
950

0.75
1
1.3
1.5

940
930
0

10

Distance from Storm Center (r/RMW)

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

14

Holland B Pressure Fits


Andrew -1992/08/23-0542,B=1.6,p=75mb,RMW=11km

Andrew -1992/08/23-0550,B=1.7,p=79mb,RMW=13km

1020

1020

1000

1000
Pressure(hPa)

Pressure(hPa)

980
960
940

980
960
940

150

100

50

50

Radius(km )
1020

1020

1000

1000
Pressure(hPa)

Pressure(hPa)

150

Luis-1995/09/04-1704,B=1.5,p=71mb,RMW=38.5km

980
960
940

980
960
940

150

100

50

50

Radius(km )

100

150

Radius(km )

Floyd-1999/09/15-0518,B=1.15,p=80mb,RMW=66km

Floyd-1999/09/15-0525,B=1.1,p=81mb,RMW=65km

1020

1020

1000

1000
Pressure(hPa)

Pressure(hPa)

100
Radius(km )

Luis-1995/09/04-1700,B=1.4,p=71mb,RMW=42km

980
960
940

980
960
940

150

100

50

50

Radius(km )

100

150

Radius(km )

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

15

Effect of Holland B on
Predicted Wind Speeds
Wilmington,NC

PeakGustWindSpeed(mph)

200

BfromVickery, etal.(2000)
BfromVickeryandWadhera(2008)
150

100

50

0
1

10
100
ReturnPeriod(years)

1000
Expanding the Realm of Possibility

16

Wind Speed Comparisons


ASCE 7-10 Equivalent
(V700/1.6)

ASCE 7-98 through 7-05


90(40)
100(45)
110(49)

110(49)

90(40)

120(54)

110(49)
120(54)
130(58)

130(58)

140(63)

90(40)
120(54)
100(45)
110(49)

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

17

700 Year Return Period Winds


114(51)
120(54)
130(58)

108(48)

140(63)

114(51)

114(51)

140(63)
150(67)

150(67)
140(63)

130(58)
120(54)
110(49)
160(72)

170(76)

114(51)
150(67)
120(54)
130(58)140(63)

110(49)

140(63)
150(67)
160(72)
170(76)

180(80)
180(80)

120(54)
130(58)
140(63)
150(67)
158(71)
158(71)

Location
Hawaii
Guam
Virgin Islands
American Samoa

Vmph
129
196
167
158

(m/s)
(58)
(88)
(75)
(71)

150(67) 160(72)
170(76)

Puerto Rico

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

18

Wind speeds at selected locations


Location

ASCE 7-05
Exposure C

Bar Harbor, Maine


Boston, MA
Hyannis, MA
New Port, RI
Southampton, NY
Atlantic City, NJ
Wrightsville Beach, NC
Folly Beach, SC
Miami Beach
Clearwater, FL
Panama City, FL
Biloxi, MS
Galveston, TX
Port Aransas, TX
Hawaii
Guam

V700 / 1.6
Exposure C
95
103
112
109
110
102
119
115
136
115
107
129
119
117
103
155

97
106
117
117
120
114
132
131
145
128
129
138
131
134
105
170

Exposure D
103
112
122
119
119
111
129
125
148
125
116
140
129
127
112
168

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

Simulated vs. Historical


Maximum Wind Speeds

10
100
Return Period (years)

Camille

1000

10
100
Return Period (years)

1000

220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1

Labor Day

Andrew

1926
Charley

Donna

Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph)

Camille

1926

Frederic

100

Florida

Katrina

Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph)

Elena
1

10

Return Period (years)

MS/AL
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0

Carmen

Rita
Katrina
Audrey
1

1000

Betsy

Louisiana

220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0

Andrew

Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph)

Carla

1932

1900
1

Audrey

Celia

Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph)

Texas

220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0

10
100
Return Period (years)

1000

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

20

Peak Gust Wind Speeds


Anywhere in US vs. Return Period

150
Charley

Wind Speed (mph)

Labor Day

Camille

Hazel

200

Andrew

Betsy (LA)
Carla

250

ARA Modeled
Probabilistic
Powell & Reinhold (2007)
Powell (2007)
Powell & Aberson (2001)
Dunion et al, (2003)
HWind
FIU FCHLPM
Houston & Powell (2003)
Goldman & Ushijima (1974)

100

50

0
1

10

100

1000

Return Period (years)


Expanding the Realm of Possibility

Reintroduction of Exposure D in
Hurricane- Prone Regions

Research showed that the roughness of ocean does


not continue to increase with increasing wind speed
and Exposure D is valid

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

Exposure D

Analysis of dropsonde data


indicate that at high wind speeds
the ocean roughness does not
continue to increase as
previously thought.
Reduced drag possibly due to
surface bubbles and/or sea
spray.
Limits the aerodynamic
roughness length to a value
comparable to that used to
50
define Exposure D.

100

Height (m)

10

0.1

0.01

0.001

0.0001
0

10

20

30

40

WInd Speed (m/sec)

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

23

AerodynamicSurfaceRoughness(m)

Roughness Length vs. Wind


Speed
CAT1

CAT2 CAT3

CAT4

CAT5

ExposureB

0.1
OldModel(ASCE705)

ExposureC

0.01

ExposureD
NewModel (LargeHurricanes)
NewModel (SmallHurricanes)

0.001

EstimatesfromDropsondes

0.0001
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

HourlyMeanWindSpeedOverWater(m/sec)
Expanding the Realm of Possibility

24

Windborne Debris Region

ASCE 7-05 Standard


V > 120 or 110 within one mile of coast
Exact Mapping (new 700 year map)
1201.6=152~150
110 1.6=139~140
Implemented
V > 140 or 130 within one mile of coast
Results in less area within WBD Region than in the
ASCE 7-05

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

25

ASCE 7-10 Windborne


Debris Region

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

26

Wind Map Summary

New data and data analysis indicate that the ASCE 7-05
hurricane wind speeds were generally conservative
Introduction of ultimate wind speed maps
LRFD Wind Load Factor = 1.0
ASD Wind Load Factor
= 0.6
Specific maps for each building category
Exposure D for hurricane coastline
New windborne debris region results in less area subject
to windborne debris design criteria

Expanding the Realm of Possibility