Handbook of Risk Theory

) Handbook of Risk Theory Epistemology. Ethics. Rafaela Hillerbrand. Decision Theory.Sabine Roeser. and Social Implications of Risk With 85 Figures and 62 Tables . Per Sandin. Martin Peterson (Eds.

microfilming. electronic.springer. stored in a retrieval system.com) . for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Policy and Management Delft University of Technology Delft The Netherlands and Philosophy Department University of Twente Enschede The Netherlands Rafaela Hillerbrand Human Technology Center RWTH Aachen University Aachen Germany Per Sandin Department of Plant Physiology and Forest Genetics Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Uppsala Sweden Martin Peterson Section for Philosophy and Ethics Eindhoven University of Technology Eindhoven The Netherlands ISBN 978-94-007-1432-8 e-ISBN 978-94-007-1433-5 Print and electronic bundle under ISBN 978-94-007-1434-2 DOI 10. or transmitted in any form or by any means. photocopying. without written permission from the Publisher. recording or otherwise.1007/978-94-007-1433-5 Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg London New York Library of Congress Control Number: 2011941145 © Springer ScienceþBusiness Media B. 2012 No part of this work may be reproduced.Editors Sabine Roeser (Editor-in-Chief) Philosophy Department Faculty of Technology. mechanical. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer ScienceþBusiness Media (www. with the exception of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system.V.

and it also addresses specific case studies. We hope that the Handbook of Risk Theory will be a helpful starting point for all risk scholars who are interested in broadening and deepening their current perspectives. questions like these have attracted interest from philosophers and other scholars into risk theory. and legal scholars. from decision theory. This handbook brings together leading philosophers and scholars from other disciplines who work on risk theory. Rafaela Hillerbrand. and economics. to ethics and social implications of risk. The editors: Sabine Roeser (Editor-in-Chief). The contributions are accessibly written and highly relevant to issues that are studied by risk scholars. risk perception. This handbook provides an overview into key topics in a major new field of research. It aims to promote communication and information among all those who are interested in theoretical issues concerning risk and uncertainty. medicine. Per Sandin. It addresses a wide range of topics. and Martin Peterson . psychologists. But the topic of risk also leads to more fundamental questions such as: What is risk? What can decision theory contribute to the analysis of risk? What does the human perception of risk mean for society? How should we judge whether a risk is morally acceptable or not? Over the last couple of decades.Preface Risk has become one of the main topics in fields as diverse as engineering. and it is also studied by social scientists.

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Acknowledgments Sabine Roeser’s work for the Handbook of Risk Theory has been conducted at the philosophy departments of TU Delft and Twente University and was sponsored by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). Centre for Ethics and Technology. specially Ties Nijssen. Per Sandin’s work for this handbook was done in the Department of Plant Physiology and Forest Genetics. a center of excellence of the federation of the three technical universities in the Netherlands (Delft. Uppsala and in the Department of Philosophy and History of Technology. We are very grateful to the contributors of this handbook. Thanks to all members of the research group eet . and Misse Wester. Sabine Roeser and Martin Peterson are members of the 3TU. In addition. Special thanks to Andreas Pfennig. and Christine Hausmann. Stockholm. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences. RWTH Aachen University. . and Twente). Royal Institute of Technology. each of whom provided expert reviews for a chapter. Martin Peterson has conducted his work for the handbook at the philosophy department of TU Eindhoven. Jutta Jaeger-Hamers. We would like to thank the staff at Springer for the excellent collaboration. Rafaela Hillerbrand’s work on this volume was supported by the excellence initiative of the German federal and state governments and conducted at the Human Technology Centre (HumTec) and the Institute of Philosophy. Nick Shackel. and Peter Taylor for numerous fruitful discussions on the topic.ethics for energy technology for insights into risks from various disciplines. we would like to thank Katie Steele. Eindhoven. Linda Soneryd. with VIDI-grant number 276-20-012.

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. . 179 Annette Rid 9 Understanding and Governing Public Health Risks by Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Sabine Roeser . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Martin Peterson Part 1 2 General Issues in Risk Theory A Panorama of the Philosophy of Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Table of Contents Preface . . . . . . . . Marjan Sjerps 7 Risks and Scientific Responsibilities in Nanotechnology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 Louis Eeckhoudt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213 Erika Mansnerus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Editors . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 Hauke Riesch Part 2 5 Specific Risks The Economics of Risk: A (Partial) Survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Henri Louberge´ 6 Interpretation of Forensic Evidence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Sven Ove Hansson 3 The Concepts of Risk and Safety . . . . . . . . . . . xv Volume 1 1 Introduction to Risk Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Niklas Mo¨ller 4 Levels of Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . List of Contributors . . . . 159 John Weckert 8 Risk and Risk-Benefit Evaluations in Biomedical Research . . . . . . . . . . . Rafaela Hillerbrand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Per Sandin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Stoel . . v . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 Reinoud D. . . . . . . . vii xiii . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 319 Rafaela Hillerbrand 14 Earthquakes and Volcanoes: Risk from Geophysical Hazards . Taylor 18 Unreliable Probabilities. . . . 499 Till Gru¨ne-Yanoff 20 Multi-Attribute Approaches to Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 405 Karsten Klint Jensen 17 The Mismeasure of Risk . . . . . . 295 Behnam Taebi 13 Climate Change as Risk? . . . . . . . . . 477 Nils-Eric Sahlin 19 Paradoxes of Rational Choice Theory . . 375 Claus Beisbart 16 A Philosophical Assessment of Decision Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Paradoxes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Vieider . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265 Claudia Basta 12 Intergenerational Risks of Nuclear Energy . . . . . Ferdinand M. 239 John Adams 11 Risk and Spatial Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 341 Amy Donovan Part 3 Decision Theory and Risk 15 A Rational Approach to Risk? Bayesian Decision Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . 545 John R. . . . . . . . . .x Table of Contents 10 Management of the Risks of Transport . . . . . . . . . . . Trautmann . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . and Epistemic Risks . . . 575 Stefan T. . . . Welch 22 Social Influences on Risk Attitudes: Applications in Economics . . . . . 517 Paul Weirich 21 Real-Life Decisions and Decision Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 441 Peter R. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . Jessica Nihle´n Fahlquist xi . . . . . . . . . Rebecca Ferrer 28 Cultural Cognition as a Conception of the Cultural Theory of Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 661 Lennart Sjo¨berg 26 The Role of Feelings in Perceived Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . 877 Ibo van de Poel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Nickel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Krist Vaesen 35 Risk and Responsibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Wolfgang Gaissmaier 25 Risk Perception and Societal Response . . . . . . . . . . . . Kahan 29 Tools for Risk Communication . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cranor 32 Moral Emotions as Guide to Acceptable Risk . . . . . . Nafsika Athanassoulis 34 Risk and Trust . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 819 Sabine Roeser 33 Risk and Virtue Ethics . . . . . . . . . . . 603 Dylan Evans 24 Risk Communication in Health . . . . . 677 Melissa L. . . . . . . . Warnings. . 725 Dan M. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 693 Ross Buck . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 761 Britt-Marie Drottz-Sjo¨berg Part 5 Risk Ethics 30 Ethics and Risk . . . . . . . . . . 805 Carl F. . . 833 Allison Ross . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 791 Douglas MacLean 31 Toward a Premarket Approach to Risk Assessment to Protect Children . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Table of Contents Volume 2 Part 4 Risk Perception 23 Risk Intelligence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 857 Philip J. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Finucane 27 Emotion. . . . . . . . . . 621 Nicolai Bodemer . . . . . . . . . and the Ethics of Risk Communication . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1119 Marjolein B. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 909 Madeleine Hayenhjelm 37 Intergenerational Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1165 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1029 Misse Wester 42 Risk and Soft Impacts . . . . . . . 1049 Tsjalling Swierstra . 1067 Rinie van Est . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Frans Brom 44 Risk Governance . . Per Sandin 39 The Capability Approach in Risk Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 961 Marko Ahteensuu . . . . . . . . 1137 Val Dusek Index . . . . . . van Asselt 45 EU Risk Regulation and the Uncertainty Challenge . . . . . . . . . . Tessa Fox . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xii Table of Contents 36 What Is a Fair Distribution of Risk? . . . . Hermans . . . . . . 1093 Marijke A. Hedwig te Molder 43 Risk and Technology Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A. . . . . Go¨ran Sundqvist 41 Risk and Gender: Daredevils and Eco-Angels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Marjolein B. . . Paolo Gardoni Part 6 Risk in Society 40 Sociology of Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 931 Lauren Hartzell-Nichols 38 The Precautionary Principle . . 979 Colleen Murphy . . 1001 Rolf Lidskog . . . . . . . . Ellen Vos 46 Risk Management in Technocracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Bart Walhout . . . . van Asselt . . . .

Policy and Management Delft University of Technology Delft The Netherlands and Philosophy Department University of Twente Enschede The Netherlands Rafaela Hillerbrand Human Technology Center RWTH Aachen University Aachen Germany Per Sandin Department of Plant Physiology and Forest Genetics Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Uppsala Sweden Martin Peterson Section for Philosophy and Ethics Eindhoven University of Technology Eindhoven The Netherlands .Editors Sabine Roeser (Editor-in-Chief) Philosophy Department Faculty of Technology.

xiv Editorial Board .

List of Contributors John Adams Department of Geography University College London London UK Nicolai Bodemer Harding Center for Risk Literacy Max Planck Institute for Human Development Berlin Germany Marko Ahteensuu Public Choice Research Centre (PCRC) University of Turku Turku Finland Frans Brom Department of Technology Assessment Rathenau Institute The Hague The Netherlands Nafsika Athanassoulis Oswestry UK Ross Buck Department of Communication Sciences University of Connecticut Storrs. Cranor Department of Philosophy University of California Riverside. Centre for Ethics and Technology Delft The Netherlands and Land Use Planning Group Wageningen University and Research Centre Wageningen The Netherlands Claus Beisbart Fakulta¨t Humanwissenschaften und Theologie Institut fu¨r Philosophie und Politikwissenschaft Technische Universita¨t Dortmund Dortmund Germany Carl F. CA USA Amy Donovan Department of Geography University of Cambridge Cambridge UK Britt-Marie Drottz-Sjo¨berg Risk Psychology. Environment and Safety Research Group Department of Psychology Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) Trondheim Norway . CT USA Claudia Basta Section Philosophy Delft University of Technology 3TU.

MD USA Wolfgang Gaissmaier Harding Center for Risk Literacy Max Planck Institute for Human Development Berlin Germany Paolo Gardoni Zachry Department of Civil Engineering Texas A&M University College Station. HI USA Madeleine Hayenhjelm Department of Philosophy University College London London UK Tessa Fox Department of Technology and Society Studies Faculty of Arts & Social Sciences Maastricht University Maastricht The Netherlands Marijke A. NH USA Louis Eeckhoudt IE´SEG School of Management Lille France and The Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) Universite´ catholique de Louvain Louvain Belgium Dylan Evans School of Medicine University College Cork Cork Ireland Rebecca Ferrer Behavioral Research Program Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences National Cancer Institute Rockville.xvi List of Contributors Val Dusek Department of Philosophy University of New Hampshire Durham. Hermans Department of Technology and Society Studies Faculty of Arts & Social Sciences Maastricht University Maastricht The Netherlands . Finucane East-West Center Honolulu. TX USA Till Gru¨ne-Yanoff Helsinki Collegium of Advanced Studies University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland Sven Ove Hansson Division of Philosophy Royal Institute of Technology Stockholm Sweden Lauren Hartzell-Nichols Program on Values in Society University of Washington Seattle. WA USA Melissa L.

TX USA Philip J. Kahan Yale Law School Yale University New Haven.List of Contributors Rafaela Hillerbrand Human Technology Center & Institute for Philosophy RWTH Aachen University Aachen Germany Karsten Klint Jensen Danish Centre for Bioethics and Risk Assessment Institute of Food and Resource Economics University of Copenhagen Frederiksberg C Denmark Dan M. NC USA Annette Rid Institute of Biomedical Ethics University of Zurich Zurich Switzerland Erika Mansnerus Health and Social Care London School of Economics London UK Hauke Riesch Judge Business School University of Cambridge Cambridge UK xvii . CT USA Rolf Lidskog Centre for Urban and Regional Studies O¨rebro University O¨rebro Sweden Niklas Mo¨ller University of Cambridge Cambridge UK Colleen Murphy Department of Philosophy Texas A&M University College Station. Nickel Department of Philosophy and Ethics School of Innovation Sciences Eindhoven University of Technology Eindhoven The Netherlands Jessica Nihle´n Fahlquist Delft University of Technology Delft The Netherlands and Royal Institute of Technology Stockholm Sweden Henri Louberge´ Department of Economics Geneva Finance Research Institute (GFRI) University of Geneva Swiss Finance Institute Geneva Switzerland Martin Peterson Section for Philosophy and Ethics Eindhoven University of Technology Eindhoven The Netherlands Douglas MacLean Department of Philosophy University of North Carolina Chapel Hill.

Stoel Department of Science. and Knowledge Management Netherlands Forensic Institute The Hague The Netherlands Go¨ran Sundqvist Centre for Technology. Interdisciplinary Investigations. Statistics. Interdisciplinary Investigations. PA USA Per Sandin Department of Plant Physiology and Forest Genetics Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Uppsala Sweden Lennart Sjo¨berg Center for Risk Research Center for Media and Economic Psychology Marketing and Strategy Department Stockholm School of Economics Stockholm Sweden and Center for Risk Psychology. Statistics. Taylor Oxford Martin School University of Oxford Old Indian Institute Oxford UK . and Knowledge Management Netherlands Forensic Institute The Hague The Netherlands Reinoud D. Environment. and Safety Department of Psychology Norwegian University of Science and Technology Trondheim Norway Marjan Sjerps Department of Science. Innovation and Culture University of Oslo Oslo Norway Tsjalling Swierstra Department of Philosophy University of Maastricht Maastricht The Netherlands Behnam Taebi Department of Philosophy Delft University of Technology Delft The Netherlands Peter R.xviii List of Contributors Sabine Roeser Philosophy Department Delft University of Technology Delft The Netherlands and Philosophy Department University of Twente Enschede The Netherlands Allison Ross London UK Nils-Eric Sahlin Department of Medical Ethics Lund University Lund Sweden and Center for Philosophy of Science University of Pittsburgh Pittsburgh.

ACT Australia Paul Weirich Department of Philosophy University of Missouri Columbia.List of Contributors Hedwig te Molder Faculty of Behavioral Sciences. Vieider Institut fu¨r Volkswirtschaftslehre Ludwig-Maximilians-Universita¨t Mu¨nchen Munich Germany Ellen Vos Faculty of Law Maastricht University Maastricht The Netherlands Bart Walhout Department of Technology Assessment Rathenau Institute The Hague The Netherlands John Weckert Centre for Applied Philosophy and Public Ethics (CAPPE) Charles Sturt University Canberra. Trautmann Tilburg Institute of Behavioral Economics Research Department of Social Psychology & Center Tilburg University Tilburg The Netherlands Krist Vaesen Department of Philosophy and Ethics Eindhoven University of Technology Eindhoven The Netherlands Marjolein B. van Asselt Department of Technology and Society Studies Faculty of Arts & Social Sciences Maastricht University Maastricht The Netherlands Ferdinand M. MO USA Ibo van de Poel Delft University of Technology Delft The Netherlands John R. Science Communication University of Twente/Wageningen University Enschede/Wageningen The Netherlands Stefan T. Welch Department of Philosophy Saint Louis University. A. Madrid Campus Madrid Spain Rinie van Est Department of Technology Assessment Rathenau Institute The Hague The Netherlands Misse Wester Division of Philosophy The Royal Institute of Technology Stockholm Sweden xix .