KIM/LIU

Plan: The United States Federal Government should invest all necessary resources to
establish a hydrogen fueling station network in the United States.

They all handle like traditional gas-powered vehicles. solar and wind power generation. However. 41 percent less than the $170 million budgeted for fiscal year 2010. For fiscal year 2012. It also eliminates funding of the Solid State Exchange Conversion Alliance (SECA). you fill up at the pump that dispenses gas. It also . Just as with electric cars.html President Obama’s proposed 2012 budget boosts Department of Energy spending. to demonstrate its usability.examiner.autoobserver. Despite that. Mercedes also took the FCell on an around-the-world test drive in 2011. in her opening remarks. fuel cell vehicles June 21. which opened last Monday just as the figures were made public and concluded on Wednesday. "We have hundreds of fuel cell electric vehicles on the roads. called the F-Cell. President Obama's proposed fiscal year 2012 budget raises Department of Energy funding to $29. a nearly 12-percent increase from the current 2010 fiscal year level of $26. I‘ve test driven both. less competitive in the global hydrogen energy arena and send "a message to American industry and the world that fuel cells and hydrogen aren't viable near-term options for America's clean energy portfolio. Many of these filling stations will be added to existing fueling stations. 2/22/11) http://www.jpg The proposed budget cuts make the U. and she noted that fuel cells can complement other means of power generation by providing "a conversion and storage mechanism to make excess power available as hydrogen to fuel vehicles. a DOEmanaged program to develop solid oxide fuel cells that would be used as range-extending auxiliary power units in electric trucks. While the brunt of the cuts would not be felt for a while. so depending on the type of vehicle you drive. Fuel-Cell Backers Criticize DOE Budget Cuts. Building a network of hydrogen filling stations will help eliminate what‘s called “range anxiety” – the fear of running out of fuel. "America's leadership in fuel cells and hydrogen energy is in jeopardy. Thomas Weber.KIM/LIU Contention One: Inherency US is the hydrogen leader now. president and executive director of the Fuel Cell Hydrogen Energy Association. 2012) http://www. The network is to be completed by 2015. especially for electric vehicles. Cox also declared that "the funding to sustain our current leadership in fuel cells and hydrogen technologies is modest" by comparison. when hydrogen and fuel cell cars are expected to be widely available. it’s a case of chicken and egg – you can’t have the cars without places to refuel them. Mercedes-Benz already offers a zero-emission fuel cell BClass compact. Prof. But they have the sound of silence of a hybrid or electric. while it drastically cuts hydrogen and fuel-cell research.despite the overall hike and the nod to EVs in general . along with the Chevrolet Equinox fuel cell demonstration vehicle. to the dismay of backers of those technologies. the proposed DOE budget devotes $100 million to hydrogen and fuel cell technologies. there is an immediate effect: raising the ire of fuel cell and hydrogen energy proponents at their annual national conference.com/2011/02/fuel-cell-backers-criticize-doe-budget-cuts. with plenty of torque for acceleration.cuts deeply the DOE's funding for research and development of hydrogen and fuel cell technologies." she said. The FCX Clarity won the Green Car of the Year Award in 2009. work that could help to build a future market for fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs).com/article/more-filling-stations-for-hydrogen-fuel-cell-vehicles Germany is spending more than 40 million Euros to build a network of filling stations for hydrogen and fuel cell cars." said Ruth Cox. A similar effort last year by Energy Secretary Steven Chu to slash automotive fuel cell research in his 2010 budget proposal was reversed in Congress – but with budget-cutting Republicans in control of the House of Representatives this year. says.S. his administration has been misguided about the critical role fuel cells and hydrogen energy have to play in its realization. The hydrogen filling stations are being focused on the corridors connecting German cities. already is available for leasing in Germany and in California. because although we have a President who is committed to creating a clean energy economy. and it includes $588 million to stimulate sales of one million electric vehicles by 2015." Dorgan quote. Member of the Board of Management of Daimler AG.4 billion. but 2012 cuts will stop this Auto Observers 11 (AutoObserver 11. "Electric vehicles equipped with a battery and fuel cell will make a considerable contribution to sustainable mobility in the future. she continued. Noting the Obama administration's pursuit of battery. that's not as likely an outcome." Fueling Station key to success of 2015 Hydrogen cars and the public’s “range anxiety” Kanter 6-21 (Evelyn Kanter Green Car Examiner More filling stations for hydrogen. the success . The Honda FCX Clarity fuel cell sedan also is available for leasing in California. and more hydrogen refueling stations in the state of California alone than in the entire rest of the world.5 billion. diesel or hydrogen.

Recommendation 10-3a. pipeline materials. The logistics of interconnecting hydrogen production and end use are daunting. The Department of Energy program in infrastructure requires greater emphasis and support. The hydrogen infrastructure program should address issues such as storage requirements.KIM/LIU of fuel cell technology depends crucially on certain conditions being in place. Costs. and R&D Needs. and permitting. or independent. hydrogen purity. complementary. because the current incentives for companies to make early investments in hydrogen infrastructure are relatively weak. leak detection. 2004 (119) In the area of infrastructure and delivery there seem to be significant opportunities for making major improvements. The DOE does not yet have a strong program on hydrogen infrastructures. such as the availability of a nationwide hydrogen infrastructure. Barriers. National Academy of Engineering (NAE) Board on Energy and Environmental Systems (BEES). the committee believes that exploratory research focused on new concepts for hydrogen delivery requires additional funding. The Department of Energy should strive to create better linkages between its seemingly disconnected programs in large-scale and small-scale hydrogen production. with the objective of clarifying the conditions under which large-scale and small-scale hydrogen production will become competitive.‖ Government leadership key – the market won’t invest in hydrogen on its own NRC 04 (National Research Council. Accordingly."The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities. The committee recognizes that there is little understanding of future logistics systems and new concepts for hydrogen delivery—thus making a systems approach very important. DOE leadership is critical. Committee on Alternatives and Strategies for Future Hydrogen Production and Use. Because it is very customer-friendly – with its great range and short refilling times – fuel cell technology has enormous potential for massively advancing Germany on its path to becoming the lead market for electric mobility. . compressors. and all current methods of hydrogen delivery have poor energy-efficiency characteristics and difficult logistics. National Academy of Engineering .

economy would inflict enormous. The Conference Board said worries about the job market outweighed lower gas prices and steady improvement in the housing market. June 28.000. . pressed too far. the first quarterly decline since the final three months of 2008. economic might is sticky power. exports. U. Under those circumstances.9 percent.KIM/LIU Advantage One: Economy The economy continues faltering – No turnaround is in sight Washington Post 6/28/12 [―Economy growing too slowly to lift US job market.S. which was 8. economic system provides the United States with the prosperity needed to underwrite its security strategy.washingtonpost. 6:05 PM.” said Jennifer Lee. according to the latest data that suggest June has been another weak month for hiring.-led system.S. although some are hopeful that lower gas prices could help lift consumer spending over the summer. The report on the first quarter‘s economic growth showed that U. Weekly applications fell only slightly last week to a seasonally adjusted 386. according to a survey by FactSet. economy and the ruin of the dollar would do more than dent the prosperity of the United States.S. Other recent indicators have painted a mixed picture of the economy. corporations earned less profit overseas. That is sticky power with a vengeance. Two government reports released Thursday added to the picture of an economy that is faltering for the third straight year after a promising start. based on the level of people applying for unemployment benefits. The government will issue the June employment report on July 6. the report said.000 jobs were added in June and the unemployment rate did not change. a development that is unlikely to help the employment outlook. pg. unacceptable damage on the rest of the world.S. in the last 60 years. When applications are above 375. a collapsing U. That‘s likely a result of Europe‘s economic woes and slowing growth in countries like China and India.2 percent last month. consumers are less confident and Europe’s financial crisis has dampened demand for U.000 jobs a month in April and May after averaging 226. the Labor Department said. Lexis) Similarly. direct and portfolio private investments--more and more of them have acquired an interest in maintaining the strength of the U. pg.S.S. hard power that compels others or soft power that attracts the rest of the world. economy in the January-March quarter was unchanged at a tepid 1. The financial strength of every country would be severely shaken should the United States collapse. and other countries fear to break with the United States because they need its market and own its securities. THE SUM OF ALL POWERS? The United States' global economic might is therefore not simply.‖ said Jeremy Lawson.com/business/economy/economy-growing-too-slowly-to-lift-us-job-marketanother-weak-month-of-hiring-expected/2012/06/28/gJQA2ctO9V_print.S. ―With global weakness continuing .‖ Associated Press.S. corporate profits fell.S. economy is growing too slowly to pull the job market out of a slump. Lower overseas profits could discourage U. The Fed now predicts the economy will grow between 1. Slow improvement in the economy threatens President Barack Obama‘s re-election hopes. Growth of around 1. Applications have climbed nearly 5 percent in the past two months.000. Applications for unemployment benefits stayed above a level last week that is generally considered too high to lower the unemployment rate. not a weakness. But. debt becomes a strength.000 jobs a month. but it also encourages other countries to accept U.S. A collapse of the U. Most economists don’t see growth accelerating much from the first-quarter pace. Job growth has tumbled.html] WASHINGTON — The U. the U. a large national debt can turn from a source of strength to a crippling liability. That‘s considered too weak to lower the unemployment rate. Of course. And the annual growth rate for the U. US is key to global economic growth Mead 4 (Walter Russell. countries including China and Japan would fall into depressions. to use Nye's formulations. A closely watched private survey released this week showed consumer confidence fell in June for the fourth straight month.. He is likely to face voters with the highest unemployment rate of any president since the Great Depression. And it doesn‘t see the unemployment rate falling much lower this year. Employers added an average of only 73. another weak month of hiring expected. Hiring hasn‘t likely improved in June. like Samson in the temple of the Philistines. U.000 a month in the first three months of the year. Without their best customer. employers from adding some jobs in the second half of the year. Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. an economist at BMO Capital Markets.4 percent this year — a half a percentage point lower than its forecast in April.9 percent and 2. and the United States must continue to justify other countries' faith by maintaining its long-term record of meeting its financial obligations. leadership.S. as foreigners have acquired a greater value in the United States--government and private bonds. The Federal Reserve last week downgraded its outlook for 2012 growth.. Certainly. April 1. it generally means that hiring isn‘t strong enough to rapidly lower the unemployment rate. http://www.S.9 percent typically generates roughly 90. an economist at BNP Paribas. Foreign Policy. Updated: Thursday. Economists are predicting that 100. ―Jobless claims are still too high and show that employment growth is slowing and no progress is being made. corporate profits are likely to remain under pressure.

KIM/LIU US support for hydrogen will rejuvenate the financial markets – We prevent a civilizational collapse Rifkin 02 – Economist and president of the Foundation on Economic Trends [Jeremy Rifkin. of the kind used in World War I and other major conflicts. however. and status. such that other nations cannot compete with it even in their home as its global predominance. a new energy regime has the potential to remake civilization along radical new lines. The international order we know today reflects the distribution of power in the world since World War ii. political. For instance. Now. a multipolar world in which the poles were Russia. and heavy oil--which will only worsen global warming and imperil the earth's already beleaguered ecosystems. One novel aspect of such a multipolar world is that most of these powers would possess nuclear weapons. intensity. ―The dawn of the Hydrogen economy: when there is no more oil or gas … the next great commercial revolution. with different rules and norms reflecting the interests of the powerful states that would have a hand in shaping it. that great geopolitical miracle.‖ RMA Journal. would disrupt trade flows in a way that is now impossible. For the banking community. American predominance prevents these rivalries from intensifying — its regional as well Were the United States to diminish its influence in the regions where it is currently the strongest power. however. and social institutions. some of the world's leading petroleum geologists are suggesting that global oil production could peak and begin a steep decline much sooner. influence. leaving most of the remaining reserves in the politically unstable Middle East. August & September 2007.com/p/articles/mi_m0ITW/is_2_85/ai_n14897180/pg_5/?tag=content.html] The jostling for status and influence among these ambitious nations and would-be nations is a second defining feature of the new post-Cold War international system. the U. it is the "forever fuel. sending oil prices through the roof. In a more multipolar world. http://www. Return of History.col1 Experts had been saying that we had another 40 or so years of cheap available crude oil left. owes its founding to American power. The Forever Fuel As the fossil-fuel era is entering its sunset years. Such order genuinely regions and possibly beyond.S. It is shaped by configurations of power. waters. when properly harnessed. the other nations would settle disputes as great and lesser powers have done in the past: sometimes through diplomacy and accommodation but often through confrontation and wars of varying scope. http://findarticles. Even when the United States engages in a war. the aspects of international order that they like would remain in place. the United States is the dominant naval power everywhere. A different configuration of power. that would not be possible without renewing the danger of world war. that the United States could step in to check any dangerous development on the continent. 2002. But that ‘s not the way it works. it would not. and Europe. They imagine that in a world where American power was diminished. India. They believe the order the world enjoys today exists independently of American power. the United States. Non-OPEC oil-producing countries already are nearing their peak production. . In a genuinely multipolar world. Even the European Union. and destructiveness.hoover. Nations would compete for naval dominance at least in their own embargos. pg. China.‖ Policy Review. it is able to play its role as guardian of the waterways. for without it the European nations after World War ii would never have felt secure enough to reintegrate Germany. and other nations could turn to dirtier fossil fuels--coal. Most Europeans recoil at the thought. honor.org/publications/policyreview/8552512. Would that international order be an improvement? Perhaps for Beijing and Moscow it would. A new economy powered by hydrogen will fundamentally change the nature of our market. just as coal and steam power did at the beginning of the Industrial Age. and especially since the end of the Cold War. International order does not rest on ideas and institutions. They either happily or grudgingly allow the United States Navy to be the guarantor of international waterways and trade routes. In desperation. It is the stuff of the stars and of our sun and. People who believe greater equality among nations would be preferable to the present American predominance often succumb to a basic logical fallacy. Wars will be numerous and go nuclear Kagan 07 – Senior associate @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [Robert Kagan (Senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund). would produce its own kind of order. if it ever went away. or it could simply make them more catastrophic. Nationalism in all its forms is back. It is easy but also dangerous to underestimate the role the United States plays in providing a measure of stability in the world even as it also disrupts stability. but even today Europe ‘s stability depends on the guarantee. Financing the infrastructure for a hydrogen economy and investing in the many new commercial ventures that will accompany the new energy regime will rejuvenate financial markets around the world and could lead to a qualitative leap forward for the whole of the world economy in the coming decades. Conflict between nations would involve struggles on the oceans as well as on land. Looming oil shortages make industrial life vulnerable to massive disruptions and possibly even collapse. the hydrogen era offers a vast new opportunity for investment. But it is doubtful that it would suit the tastes of enlightenment liberals in the United States and Europe. That could make wars between them less likely. tar sand. of international access to markets and raw materials such as oil. Armed as exists in the world rests not merely on the goodwill of peoples but on a foundation provided by American power. Oct. as early as the end of this decade. and so is international competition for power. ―End of Dreams. however distant and one hopes unnecessary. the only by-products are heat and pure water. pg." It never runs out and produces no harmful CO2 emissions when burned. Hydrogen is the most basic and ubiquitous element in the universe.

which neither a sudden end to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians nor an immediate American withdrawal from Iraq would change greater stability there. where most nations agree that a reliable American power has a stabilizing and pacific effect on both the region. which could in turn draw the United States back in under unfavorable circumstances. which seeks gradually to supplant the United States as the dominant power in the region. paired with the American commitment to protect strategic oil supplies for most of the world. too. If the United States withdrew from Europe — if it adopted what some call a strategy of ―offshore balancing‖ — role would lead to security became threatened. or Iran. In an era of burgeoning nationalism. ―offshore‖ without Soviet communism. to expand and fill the vacuum. regional conflicts involving the large powers may erupt. history suggests that conflicts in Europe involving Russia are possible even this could in time increase the likelihood of conflict involving Russia and its near neighbors. obviate the need to come to Israel ‘s aid if its . is not only far from perfect but also offers no guarantee against major conflict among the world ‘s great powers. could draw in other great powers. The vital interest the United States has in access to oil and the role it plays in keeping access open to other nations in Europe and Asia make it unlikely that American leaders could or would stand back and hope for the best while the powers in the region battle it out. competition for influence among powers both inside and outside the region has raged for at least two centuries. It could periphery. It is also optimistic to imagine that a retrenchment of the American position in the Middle East and the assumption of a more passive. nationalist Japan. independent. But they are more likely to erupt if the United States weakens or withdraws from its positions of regional dominance. The rise of Islamic fundamentalism doesn ‘t change this. That is certainly the view of most of China ‘s neighbors. practically ensures a heavy American military presence in the region. as does conflict between Iran and Israel or other Middle Eastern states. if only to secure their interests. stability. Although some realist theorists seem to imagine that the disappearance of the Soviet Union put an end to the possibility of confrontation between Russia and the West. and therefore to the need for a permanent American role in Europe. Conflict between India and Pakistan remains possible. It will produce a new instability. China. one likely to draw the United States back in again. which some see as the magic key to unlocking peace. faces the dilemma that an American withdrawal could unleash an ambitious.KIM/LIU The current order. Even under the umbrella of unipolarity. War could erupt between Russia and Georgia. It only adds a new and more threatening dimension to the competition. An American withdrawal from Iraq will not return things to ―normal‖ or to a new kind of stability in the region. It is further competition. That commitment. One could expect deeper involvement by both China and Russia. and comity in the Middle East. of course. In Europe. Nor would a more ―even-handed‖ policy toward Israel. 18 And one could also expect the more powerful states of the region. It is doubtful that any American administration would voluntarily take actions that could shift the balance of power in the Middle East further toward Russia. A diminution of American influence would not be followed by a diminution of other external influences. // 1nc . including the United States. too. The region and the states within it remain relatively weak. War could erupt between China and Taiwan and draw in the United States and Japan. In the Middle East. no one should imagine that a reduction of American power or a retraction of American influence and global involvement will provide an easier path. Difficult as it may be to extend American predominance into the future. The world hasn ‘t changed that much. forcing the United States and its European allies to decide whether to intervene or suffer the consequences of a Russian victory. the departure of the United States from the scene — even if it remained the world‘s most powerful nation — could be tempt Russia to an even more overbearing and potentially forceful approach to unruly nations on its destabilizing. both on the seas and on the ground. This is especially true in East Asia. the future is likely to be one of intensified competition among nations and nationalist movements. particularly Iran. The subtraction of American power from any region would not end conflict but would simply change the equation. Such conflicts may be unavoidable no matter what policies the United States pursues. But even China. The alternative to American predominance in the region is not balance and peace. These. The alternative to American regional predominance in the Middle East and elsewhere is not a new regional stability.

It has long been evident to policymakers that new sources of energy are desperately needed to compensate for the eventual disappearance of existing fuels as well as to slow the buildup of climate-changing "greenhouse gases" in the atmosphere. fossil fuels will still account for exactly the same share of world energy as in 2004. .in the trillions of dollars . we would need a massive influx of alternative fuels. fossil fuels .KIM/LIU Advantage Two: Oil Peak Oil will come around 2030. but that. key older "elephant" oil fields like Ghawar in Saudi Arabia and Canterell in Mexico are already in decline or expected to be so soon.supplied 86% of world energy. which now contribute only a tiny percentage of the world's net fuel supply. According to the DoE.4% of global energy in 2004. Meanwhile. To meet soaring energy demand. The rise of the new energy world order. solar and hydropower (along with "traditional" fuels like firewood and dung). Oil supplies reaching a peak will be catastrophic without alternative fuels available Klare 08 (Michael T Klare. and the rate of new oil-field discoveries plunges year after year. The record level of global oil prices in 2011 added to the debt burden of many oil-importing nations.oil. supplied but 7. nuclear power another 6%. including wind. In a report. So expect global energy shortages and high prices to be a constant source of hardship. are simply not being developed fast enough to avert the multifaceted global energy catastrophe that lies ahead.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JD17Dj04. The painfully slow development of energy alternatives. If cheap. there is no hope of averting the worst effects of climate change. adding it expects increasing complexity to push production costs higher for marginal barrels. the implications are nothing short of catastrophic: Rising reliance on coal (especially in China. India and the United States) means that global emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to rise by 59% over the next quarter-century. up from only $30-$35 a barrel in the early 2000s.1% . from 26.atimes. A number of other innovative energy solutions have already been developed and even tested out in university and corporate laboratories. it could dampen demand growth. The expected increase in renewables and biofuels is so slight . Based on current rates of development and investment. which would mean equally massive investment . The meaning of this is simple. Daily business-page headlines point to a vortex of clashing trends: worldwide demand will continue to grow as hundred of millions of newly-affluent Chinese and Indian consumers line up to purchase their first automobile (some selling for as little as $2. But these alternatives.as to be virtually meaningless.com/article/update-statoil-sees-global-oil-demandpeak-at-103-million-bd-around-2030-20120621-00101 OSLO--Norwegian oil giant Statoil ASA (STO) said Thursday it expects global oil demand to peak at 103 million barrels a day around 2030. harder-to-get barrels. the company said. The most expensive barrels come from Canadian oil sands projects.a mere 8. coal and natural gas . Inc. Hoyland 6/21/2012 Kjetil Malkenes Hovland ―UPDATE: Statoil Sees Global Oil Demand Peak at 103 Million B/D Around 2030‖ 0621-120523ET.nasdaq. If these figures hold. conventional crude oil is increasingly replaced by more expensive. In global warming terms.500). the implications are nearly as dire. http://www. the DoE offers the following dismal projection: In 2030.to ensure that the newest possibilities move rapidly from laboratory to full-scale commercial production. For oil companies. higher production costs on new projects will likely reduce returns unless the oil price increases further.9 billion tons.html) So expect global energy shortages and high prices to be a constant source of hardship. is not in the cards. When it comes to global energy supplies. biofuels added another 0.3%. renewable fuels. wind and solar power have gained significant footholds in some parts of the world. http://www. the company estimated the current cost of marginal oil barrels to be in the range of $75-$90. Dow Jones & Company. In fact.9 billion metric tons to 42. sad to say. professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College.

Dipl. the transformation process will proceed rather fast. All major automakers are committed to hydrogen as the fuel of the future. we need the ability to produce fuel from electricity. and electrolyser load is dropped-off if stationary power supply is needed to cover the electricity demand from industry and households.g. This is different in the transportation sector where basically no practically acceptable alternative exists. 5. with wind some 99% of the land area can still be used for other purposes. 6. globally. Transportation fuel supply is the bottleneck due to its high dependency on oil. and to help others mitigate and adapt to climate change through technological progress and financial assistance.‖ Pg. Remarkably. the critical transition period will be between 2015 and 2025 when conventional energy supplies are declining that this change may have started already and is still gaining momentum. Coal and nuclear energy cannot fill the gap. Admiral Dennis Blair.S. Current developments in the conventional energy market—especially the disruptions in oil and natural gas supplies—could be a first signal According to LBST analyses.KIM/LIU US pave the way for a global shift away from oil CNA Military Advisory Board 09 – Retired generals and admirals from all four services [Center for Naval Analyses: Analysis and Solutions (A not-for-profit company which provides indepth analysis and results-oriented solutions to help government leaders set policy and manage military operations). . natural gas by 2020. due to demand and supply mismatch).‖ (2008) ScienceDirect) Hydrogen is an energy carrier. 5. Conclusions It is beyond doubt that the future energy landscape will be fundamentally different from todays. May 2009] A global consensus on the need for responses to climate change is leading governments to embrace policies designed to discourage the use of fossil fuels. The yield per land used is significantly higher than with biofuels (see Fig. in an integrated network.). fuel cells. Market entry and large-scale use of hydrogen in transportation is anticipated between 2010 and 2015. researcher atLudwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH). This cannot be provided by biofuels as these can only be produced from specific. In case of PV. FH Versorgungstechnik). Hydrogen can be produced from almost any primary energy at high efficiency and can be used for efficient power generation in e. and thus requires primary energy for its production. This could apply to remote areas or property as well as islands without grid connection. Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH ―Alternative World Energy Outlook (AWEO) and the role of hydrogen in a changing energy landscape.g. Ing.S.S Dipl. M. will be expected to play a leading role in this regulatory advance [71]. where battery electric vehicles are not expected to fulfil all the users‘ expectations in the foreseeable future. Patrick Schmidt. For the transition from a fuel dominated energy economy to an electricity based one. (M. University Karlsruhe). This trend. it allows for a higher penetration of intermittent renewable energies into the energy system. hydrogen use is mainly seen in the transportation sector. 3). which they believe would slow their economic growth. already underway. Coal will peak before 2050 depending on the extent coal might be used also for the production of transportation fuels. not an energy source.S. suggested that the U. the Director of National Intelligence. 1/3rd of the area is occupied by panels only.2. Most likely. to reduce its own emissions. –Ing. Hubert Landinger. and advance the development of alternatives. Transport sector Today. Even with the current recession. ―Multilateral policymaking on climate change is likely to be highly visible and a growing priority among traditional security affairs in the coming decades. Hence. (M. We observe the United States is seen by the world as occupying a potentially pivotal leadership role between Europe. Using hydrogen as an intermediate storage medium for stationary electricity is rather inefficient compared to alternative storage media.1. limited sources. and where more efficient storage (such as hydropower reservoirs) is not available. Stationary sector Hydrogen for production of stationary power is mainly anticipated where direct use of renewable electricity is impossible (e. hydrogen offers a crosscut from electricity to transportation fuels and energy storage. The largest barriers for introduction are the high cost of fuel cell technologies and the need for a completely new fuel production and supply infrastructure. Christoph Stiller. In February 2009 testimony before Congress. the United States will come under increasing pressure to join the international community in setting meaningful long-term goals for emissions reductions. not only electricity from fuel as is prevalent today.1 Well-to-wheel analyses show that hydrogen as a transportation fuel is superior to its practical alternatives with respect to efficiency and emissions [10] and [11]. hydrogen still facilitates effective and energy-efficient load management: transportation fuel is—beside other production pathways—produced at times when abundant electricity is available in the grid. Moreover. Munich College. World oil production will peak before 2010. which is committed to long-term and dramatic reduction in carbon emissions. Powering America’s Defense: Energy and the Risks to National Security. (Professor Macalester College. and a heterogeneous group of developing states wary of committing to greenhouse gas emissions reductions. increase efficiency. the pace of this trend is likely to quicken. 18 //1ac Hydrogen is key to smooth the inevitable transition from oil Zerta et al 08(Martin Zerta winner of Vaillant award for fuel cell research. which is of special importance for a future dominated by renewable energies. will continue. Thus. at the same time relieving the transport sector from today's strong dependency on oil and its associated greenhouse gas emissions. As effects of climate change begin to mount.

China and India in particular . transportation fuels will be produced with higher efforts. Jet fuel so expensive that three low-cost airlines stopped flying in the past few weeks. this picture will turn up-side down. such as wind power and PV.35 (or more) per gallon. are going to live . In stationary applications it can contribute to effective and energy-efficient load management through the time-triggered production of fuels from excess electricity. in this country and around the world. and the contraction of the global energy supply is demolishing the energy-abundant world we are familiar with and creating in its place a new world order.though that will occur sooner or later . signaling a profound change in how all of us. however. according to the US Department of Energy (DoE). in case you hadn't quite taken it in.along with its "First World" allies in Europe and the Pacific. The combination of rising demand. as well as by a tidal shift in power and wealth from energy-deficit states like China. land use competition for fuel and food production is a very critical issue which needs to be addressed in order to avoid distortions in food provision. Diesel fuel at $4 per gallon. Decreasing oil supplies will cause escalating great power wars – transition is key Klare 08 (Michael T Klare. A significant share of the available biomass is already allocated to the stationary sector to provide heat and power. Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. The rise of the new energy world order.KIM/LIU Contributions from nuclear energy will remain marginal on a global level and without considerable increase despite its relevance for some regions. Gasoline at $3. A growing risk of conflict: Throughout history. This expansion benefited the United States above all . Instead. Hydrogen is primarily suited as transportation fuel due to its feedstock flexibility and well-to-wheel efficiency. the major powers are employing military means in . such as hydrogen or biofuels. Nevertheless. Especially this crosscut from electricity to transportation fuels makes hydrogen a key technology for a future dominated by fluctuating renewable energy.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JD17Dj04. has led to an unprecedented spurt in global energy consumption . Today. That's most of us and our children. natural gas. a select group of former "Third World" countries . These supplies are not exactly disappearing . protracted violent upheavals. This new world order will be characterized by fierce international competition for dwindling stocks of oil. This is just a taste of the latest energy news. we face a frightening reality: a marked slowdown in the expansion of global energy supplies just as demand rises precipitously. Independent truckers forced off the road. or challengers have fought to topple those at the top of the heap.or to eliminate competitors among their deficit-state rivals? The high costs and risks of modern warfare are well known and there is a widespread perception that energy problems can best be solved through economic means.a 47% rise in the past 20 years alone. professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College. Think of it as rising powers/shrinking planet. so far as anyone can predict. coal and uranium.trends that.have sought to participate in this energy bonanza by industrializing their economies and selling a wide range of goods to international markets.atimes. Moreover.the Bush administration's war in Iraq might already be thought of as one such attempt -. Energy of all sorts was once hugely abundant. While most RES produce electricity directly. the emergence of powerful new energy consumers. In the process. making possible the worldwide economic expansion of the past six decades. in turn. Either states at the pinnacle of power have struggled to prevent the loss of their privileged status. In general. will only become more pronounced as energy supplies dwindle and the global struggle over their allocation intensifies.in some cases. electricity is generated with significant input of primary energy while transportation fuel is provided with few conversion losses in oil refineries. sustainable energy supply. Biomass potentials are limited and cannot cover the current world energy demand on its own. Furthermore. In the future.html Oil at US$110 a barrel.with poor and middle-class consumers in the energydeficit states experiencing the harshest effects. Will that happen now? Will energy-deficit states launch campaigns to wrest the oil and gas reserves of surplus states from their control -. http://www. energy efficiency and energy saving are key elements to minimise disruptions in energy provision and allow for a long-term. not military ones. Home heating oil rising to unconscionable price levels. An increase of this sort would not be a matter of deep anxiety if the world's primary energy suppliers were capable of producing the needed additional fuels. major shifts in power have normally been accompanied by violence -. new technology vectors such as hydrogen are required to fulfill the transition of the energy system. Recently. the lives of everyone will be affected in one way or another . This. 5.but they are not growing fast enough to satisfy soaring global demand. Japan and the United States to energy-surplus states like Russia.

further cementing Russia's control over the trade in natural gas. In this new world order. will provoke regional arms races.and gasproducing regions of the Caspian Sea basin and the Persian Gulf. it is totally dependent on foreign oil. Once one nation launches a nuclear weapon. multiplied over time. for example. like Russia or China. In particular. and Sudan in Africa and. The United States has little to no capacity to produce oil. Central Asia and the Caspian today. Moscow seeks a monopoly on the transportation of Central Asian gas to Europe via Gazprom's vast pipeline network. where Chinese-led oil operations are threatened by insurgencies in both the South and Darfur. there would of course be retaliation. where to live. energy-centric world we have all now entered. In the new. bear more than a glancing resemblance to the Balkans in the years leading up to 1914. increasingly. of course. is that such endeavors. we use our cars. for others. One conspicuous use of military means in the pursuit of energy is obviously the regular transfer of arms and military-support services by the major energy-importing states to their principal suppliers. the price of oil will dominate our lives and power will reside in the hands of those who control its global distribution. for all of us. In fact. for some of us. Russia is also using arms transfers as an instrument in its efforts to gain influence in the major oil. have stepped up their deliveries of arms and equipment to oil-producing states like Angola. This leads to a final observation: The most pressing decision facing the next president and Congress may be how best to accelerate the transition from a fossilfuel-based energy system to a system based on climate-friendly energy alternatives. History has all too many examples of such miscalculations leading to wars that spiral out of control. The United States has placed particular emphasis on suppressing the armed insurgency in the vital Niger Delta region of Nigeria.KIM/LIU their efforts to gain advantage in the global struggle for energy. or even if. Kazakhstan. it also wants to tap into Iran's mammoth gas fields. These endeavors could easily enough lead to unintended escalation and conflict. and for what purposes. where most of the country's oil is produced. what businesses we engage in. If the United States stopped getting foreign oil. with their multiple ethnic disorders and great-power rivalries. and four more likely to have them there could be major consequences of another world war. exacerbate regional tensions. Its urge is not to procure energy for its own use. .com/opinions/will-an-economic-collapse-kill-you/) Now it‘s time to look at the consequences of a failing world economy. and no one should be deluded on the subject. we travel. With five official nations having nuclear weapons. energy will govern our lives in new ways and on a daily basis. Nigeria. when and under what circumstances we go to war or avoid foreign entanglements that could end in war. Both the United States and China. and Kyrgyzstan. when. Without hydrogen. Beijing has emphasized arms aid to Sudan. What this adds up to is simple and sobering: the end of the world as you've known it. It will determine when. what foods we eat (given that the price of producing and distributing many meats and vegetables is profoundly affected by the cost of oil or the allure of growing corn for ethanol). where. The risk is so high that acting to save the economy is the most important issue facing us in the 21st century. if there were a war with any other major power over oil. in the Caspian Sea basin. and with five or more countries with nuclear weapons there would most likely be a world nuclear war. and increase the danger of great-power involvement in any local conflicts that erupt. Think of the years leading up to World War I. The danger. the government would go to no ends to secure more. oil wars go nuclear Broward 9 ((Member of Triond) http://newsflavor. these wars would most likely involve nuclear weapons. how high (or low) we turn our thermostats. but to dominate the flow of energy to others. Azerbaijan. The United States currency will become useless and will have no way of securing reserves. The first thing that will happen after an economic collapse will be war over resources.

Nevertheless. sea level rise. p. stating that ―in the judgment of most climate scientists. Although climatic the debate over the science of historical changes has been largely resolved and there is agreement about the potential influence of continued greenhouse gas emissions on climate. Biofuels. hydrogen fuel cell vehicles can reduce the well-to-wheels carbon given off by light-duty vehicles because of the greater efficiency of the fuel cell. The hydrogen technologies discussed in this report are particularly promising for large-scale reductions over the longer term.The committee has not assessed climate change risks but concludes that if immediate action is required to reduce CO2 emissions. as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures. Pg. in 2007. ―eleven of the last twelve years (1995-2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850)‖ (p. Although long-term in consequence. The warming has been especially acute since 1995. however. the 2005 NRC report notes that ―there is still legitimate debate regarding how large. ―The global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased from a pre-industrial value of about 280 parts per million (ppm) to 379 ppm in 2005. the transportation sector could provide a significant share of the reductions. so reductions in the transportation sector can be effected only by improved fuel economy and/or replacement of current fuels with lower-carbon or zero-carbon fuels. as well as greater use of low-carbon or zero-carbon energy sources for electricity generation. are very likely (greater than 90 percent). 23-24//1ac (greater than 66 percent) to CO2 emission from cars is the main source of warming. achieving deep reductions in emissions from hydrogen production will require development and use of processes that can capture and sequester the CO2 generated in hydrogen manufacture. 2008 The second element of the energy ―trilemma‖ concerns the environmental consequences of the buildup of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. also would reduce carbon emissions relative to conventional fuels. However. 2). Most recently. which can lead to flash floods and severe erosion. 2007. Zachary Shahan 2010 (Zachary Shahan. a National Research Council (NRC) report focused on these conclusions. Increased heat waves and heavy precipitation events. the 2007 IPCC report noted that climate change risks are likely include droughts. 2007. how fast. and where these effects will be‖ (p.KIM/LIU Advantage Three: Global Warming Scientific consensus is on our side – Earth is warming and humans are the cause NRC 08 . in the short run. In 2005. 5). Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences.000 years (180 to 300 ppm) as determined from ice cores‖ (IPCC. NASA actually reported in February that motor vehicles are the largest net contributor to global warming pollution. Light-duty vehicles generate one-third of global CO2 emissions and about a third of U.‖ finds that. 2). According to the IPCC. p. According to the world‘s clearinghouse for peer-reviewed climate science. With regard to the consequences of the greenhouse gas buildup. especially if produced renewably. 2). a new scientific finding in the journal Environmental Science & Technology shows that. 2010) It is rather well known now that transportation is one of the leading causes of global warming pollution in the world. Capturing CO2 emissions from individual vehicles is effectively impossible. driving a car causes more global warming pollution than flying the same distance in a plane. and increased tropical cyclone activity. Even including these production-derived carbon emissions. 2005. the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide [and methane] in 2005 exceeds by far the natural range over the last 650. former Executive Director of a non-profit organization promoting sustainable development and clean transportation.National Research Council provides independent and expert driven research for the United States National Academies [Committee on Assessment of Resource Needs for Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Technologies. Earth’s warming in recent decades has been caused primarily by human activities that have increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere‖ (NRC. Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies--A Focus on Hydrogen. Now. because moderate actions taken now could preclude the need for drastic actions taken later. ―Cars Cause Global Warming More than Planes. The study. ―Specific Climate Impact of Passenger and Freight Transport. Hydrogen contains no carbon at all. widespread melting of snow and ice. but the production processes currently available emit CO2—either from natural gas and other fossil fuels used to manufacture hydrogen or from fossil fuels that generate the electricity used to make hydrogen via electrolysis. the threat of global warming is of immediate concern. Board on Energy and Environmental Systems. planes cause more global warming because they create more short-lived warming processes at high altitudes. the IPCC wrote that “[w]arming of the climate system is unequivocal. emissions. Study Finds‖ August 9. 5). counter to what most of us believe. and especially in the United States. . p.S. and rising global average sea level‖ (IPCC.

their impact on ozone and clouds is disproportionately high. Nonetheless. Dr. ―As planes fly at high altitudes.and short-lived gases. According to a paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Carmakers have been told to improve mileage rates from 2012 through existing technology or alternatives. said. stability and predictability.5 miles per gallon within the next seven years. All cars and light lorries will have to meet a fuel efficiency target of 35. but this is the general finding. Although the exact magnitude is uncertain. though short lived." The fuel rules will apply to vehicles imported from Germany and Japan as well as American cars.Spring/Summer 2010. because they were far too conservative.[v] Despite the pretensions of ‗climate sceptics. pg. but on the contrary. a new national standard aimed at both increasing gas mileage and decreasing greenhouse gas pollution for all new cars and trucks sold in America. for the first time in history. As carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere longer than the other gases. Warming risks planetary extinction Ahmed 10 – (Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Research & Development [NAFEEZ MOSADDEQ AHMED. Furthermore. "That made it difficult for you to plan down the road. Carbon dioxide emissions from exhausts will be reduced by a billion tons over the same period.‖ The point that you probably wouldn‘t take such long trips by car that you take by plane was not a part of the study and is an important matter to bring up as well. Paul. Tough new rules for the car industry are aimed at making the US more environmentally friendly by 2016. there are a lot of intricacies (i. Mr Obama said his changes will add about Pounds 600 to the cost of a new car. the specific car or plane or bus used). the earth‘s global average temperature would likely rise by 6°C by the end of the 21st century creating a largely uninhabitable planet – was a wake-up call to the international community. Speaking yesterday to car workers at a General Motors plant in Ohio. short-term. "For too long our auto companies faced uncertain and conflicting fuel economy standards. Mr Obama said the new fuel rules were the way forward. Energy. The landmark 2007 Fourth Assessment Report of the UN that at then-current rates of increase of fossil fuel emissions. cars have a more harmful impact on climate change in the long term.8 billion barrels of oil from 2012 to 2016. This implies that the IPCC‘s worst-case six-degree scenario severely underestimates Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – which warned the most probable climate trajectory under current rates of emissions. aerosols and cloud effects from transportation around the world — into account.e.[vi] . Jens Borken-Kleefeld. PhD (Professor of international relations and globalization @ Brunel University and the University of Sussex). But he said drivers will save more than Pounds 2. Get out of your car and onto a bike or bus or subway or train today in order to help stop global warming.com/6v3q3mb]) Perhaps the most notorious indicator is anthropogenic global warming. Issue 2 . he said. Of course. "This action will give our auto companies some long-overdue clarity.‖ lead author of the study. and Economic Crises. ―Globalizing Insecurity: The Convergence of Interdependent Ecological. passenger trains and buses cause even four to five times less global warming pollution than automobiles per passenger mile. Hydrogen cars will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by a billion tons Paul Thompson. http://tinyurl. such as hybrid cars powered by hydrogen.KIM/LIU when you take ‗everything‘ — long. 2009 (Thompson. the net effect is a strong. an average car trip increases global temperatures more than an average flight the same distance. temperature increase.000 over the life of their car in fuel bills. Evening Standard [London (UK)] 16 Sep 2009 ―Obama's greener cars 'will reduce CO2 by 1 bn tons‖) PRESIDENT Barack Obama signaled the end of gas guzzling cars in America with a carrot and stick approach. That's why we are launching. Volume 5. current CO2 emissions are worse than all six scenarios contemplated by the IPCC. As a result of the new targets White House officials said America will save 1. this study confirms again that driving is one of the leading ways humans cause global warming. ―Car travel emits more carbon dioxide than air travel per passenger mile.‖ Spotlight on Security.’ the peer-reviewed scientific literature has continued to produce evidence that the IPCC’s original scenarios were wrong – not because they were too alarmist.

degrees by the end of the century – a situation endangering the survival of all life on earth. the melting of Arctic permafrost triggering massive methane injections into the atmosphere.[xi] LOOK TO: CHEMISTRY BEHIND H2 FUEL CELL STORAGE (EXCESS SOLAR/WIND  ELEC?) HOW MUCH ARTIC SEA ICE LEFT HOW MUCH AMAZON LEFT (SCOTT WALLACE) TAE-HUN SPEAKER POSTIONS + FIRST EDITS 2AC SHIT TO 1NC SHIT POP 1NC ARGS PEAK OIL STATS + WHO‘S IN OPEC CRUDE OIL FORMS (SHALE?!) PICS OF THESE CARS FIND PLOT OF OIL PRICES OVER LAST DECADE . could tip the whole earth climate system into a process of irreversible. and increased microbial activity in the earth‘s soil leading to further huge releases of stored carbon. even as high as eight. accelerating warming.[vii] Unfortunately. Emissions beyond 350 ppm over decades are likely to lead to the total loss of Arctic sea-ice in the summer triggering magnified absorption of sun radiation. we are already well past this limit.[viii] Worse still. catastrophic impacts. there is a possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects. argues that the absolute upper limit for CO2 emissions is 350 ppm: ―If the present overshoot of this target CO2 is not brief. cutting-edge scientific data suggests that the safe upper limit is in fact far lower. the loss of half the Amazon rainforest triggering the momentous release of billions of tonnes of stored carbon. and six. in turn. James Hansen. to name just a few. the operation of which could intensify the warming process. catastrophic effects that could tip the whole earth climate system over the edge. accelerating warming. runaway warming.‖[ix] A wealth of scientific studies has attempted to explore the role of positive-feedback mechanisms between different climate sub-systems.[x] Recent studies now estimate that the continuation of business-as-usual would lead to global warming of three to four degrees Celsius before 2060 with multiple irreversible.KIM/LIU It is often presumed that a 2°C rise in global average temperatures under an atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gasses at 400 parts per million (ppm) constitutes a safe upper limit – beyond which further global warming could trigger rapid and abrupt climate changes that. with the level of greenhouse gasses as of mid-2005 constituting 445 ppm. director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. accelerating warming. Each of these feedback sub-systems alone is sufficient by itself to lead to irreversible. accelerating warming.