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CONTENTS
1

19

35

35

1949.10-1950.6

41

1950.6-1978.12

57

1979.1-1995.6

77

1995.6-2008.5

107

111

111

116

122

129

138

151

167

174

179
179

ECFA

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221

248

251

251

284

325

327

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20085

2120106
ECFA
201310APEC
2014211
ECFA
3

201052012

20128102

20128104
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200881012
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3

20143

201431548

Richard P. Rumelt, Good Strategy, Bad strategy : The Difference and Why It Matters (New York:
Crown Business, 2011), p.19.

7
20018
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201310
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11


12

13

Robert Lawrence Kuhn


Murray Scot TannerSusan L. Shirk

2013946

10

199412170-1831949-1959
199312365-381
19971208-232

11

19943
199736019974
228-26920047238

12

3520011
59-63

13

19989Robert Lawrence Kuhn

www.wunan.com.tw
The Man Who Changed China: The Life and
Legacy of Jiang Zemin20051224-235
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14


15

16

17

18


19

14

200941602009868-72
20065318-350Murray Scot Tanner
Andrew ScobellLarry M. Wortzel
Civil-military Change in China2006465-98
2008
42008820-24Susan L. Shirk, China: Fragile Superpower (Oxford: Oxford University
Press, 2008), pp.224-2612000-2007
200712310-332

15

2012522
http://140.119.184.164/taipeiforum/view_pdf/04.pdf
325201358-12
2013531
http://opinion.cw.com.tw/blog/profile/70/article/377
2013430http://www.tri.org.tw/trinews/doc/1020430_1.
pdf942013
39-612013
2013429www.taiwanthinktank.org

16

9INK2012478

17

20129
271

18

274

19

20111

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20
20

21

1.1
22

Richard C. Bush

1.1

2013929-45

20

2014022622

21

2012630

22

Richard C. Bush

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20105238-265
199612
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23

24

Ellis JoffeDavid Shambaugh


25

26


Michael D. SwaineAndrew Scobell

1980
2008

27

Chas Freeman

28


Robert Sutter

23

2013926

24

Jonathan Unger (ed.), The Nature of Chinese Politics (New York: M.E. Sharpe, 2002).

25

199641-31

26

26-29
Michael D. Swaine, Chinese Decision-Making Regarding Taiwan, 1979-2000 in David M. Lampton,
ed., The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform, (Redwood, CA :
Stanford University Press, 2001), p.289-336; Andrew Scobell, Chinas Use of Military Force: Beyond
the Great Wall and Long March (Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, 2003), pp.171-191.
28
Chas W. Freeman, Jr., The Taiwan Problem and China's Strategy for Resolving It, Remarks at the
www.wunan.com.tw
Center for Naval Analysis, Sept. 12, 2012, website: http://chasfreeman.net/the-taiwan-problem-andchinas-strategy-for-resolving-it/
27

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29

30

31

32

33

34

29

Robert Sutter, Taiwans Future: Narrowing Straits, NBR Analysis (Seattle, Washington: National
Bureau of Asian Research, 2011), p.18.

30

Ibid.

31

2006288-89

32

NOWNEWS2010
1020http://legacy.nownews.com/2010/10/20/pda-162-2656532.htm

33

2013961
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34

2012628
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StratforGeorge Friedman
35

36

37

38


39


40

41

William T. Tow
42

43

35

George FriedmanThe Next 100


Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century2009727-28

36

2012
937-38

37

20095

38

200820093200931012

39

2002
212004919-48

40

131-30

41

38120071
217-226

42

2002974-80William T. Tow, AsiaPacific Strategic Relations: Seeking Convergent Security (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,
2001), p.225-277.

43
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5447-503
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44

45

46


47

48

49

Alexander Wendt

Untying the Knot: Making Peace in the Taiwan Strait


50

44

2012121112

45

60227200911129-32

46

615020071270-74

47

20091

48

4062001111213-30

49

201271-31
50
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Richard C. Bush , Untying the Knot: Making Peace in the Taiwan Strait (Washington,DC: Brookings
Institution Press, 2006).

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51

1978

52


53

1949-19551955

1955
54


19791987
55


19551979

51

198914-5
1999122
200184
1995166
200547-70
20036
5819492008
410223-32

52

2006175-240

53

2002312-3
200560-1200212334

54

26200960-61

173200991-7
28420098
33

55

20012207-233

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11

56

2008
1949-19551955-19781979
57

1949-1983
vs.1983-2013
201211

58

59

1
1949-195821958-19793
1979-199441994
60

2012

11949195821950
11994
319871998
124200020085
2008
61


62

12
34

56

6422
20081237-38

57

199631724

58

20132387-388
He Di, The Last Campaign to Unify China: The CCPs Unrealized Plan to Liberate Taiwan, 19491950, in Mark A. Ryan, David M. Finkelstein, and Michael A. McDevitt (eds.), Chinese Warghting:
The PLA Experence Since 1949 (New York: M.E. Sharpe, 2003), p.73.

59

60

20129
3-12

61

1949-2000420049
189-2282812199512
4

62
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2013950-58
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12

2013
1949-1979
1979-1983198319941995-1997

19972002

63

64


65

20085

66


67


68


69

63

1979-201320139

64

20067

65

20097

66

2272009111
33

67

10220084
1-6

68

200932009
344-46
200952009522-23

69

200910
200912009115-16
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72 2182009246-47
20075200710

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70


71

72

73


74


75


76

8-1122
307
1232009256-62
70

200941602009868-72

71

2008
42008820-24

72

2014031015

73

201271-16

74

4
1602009859-63

75

201271-4

76
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77


78


79


80

81


82

20123

1.2

1.2

77

1999114-22

78

201031615

79

20102215

80


201012613

81

2012554

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1995510
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82

15

1721

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16

2012

83

84

85

83

20129
24-27

84
20124174
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85
20123255
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17

86


87


88

Henry Kissinger
89

1648
90

91

92

93

94

95

96


97

98

86

20124174

87

20124412

88

20124512

89

199311
148-172

90

19993107-108

91

Henry Kissinger, On China (New York: The Penguin Press, 2011), p.515.

92

Richard C. Bush, Untying The Knot: Making Peace in the Taiwan Strait (Washington, DC.: Brookings
Institution Press, 2005),pp.108-139;
201112210-215

93

4220123212

94

2011108

95

Gerry StokerWhy Politics Matters:


Making Democracy Work2009495

96

Max G. Manwaring, The Strategic Logic of the Contemporary Security Dilemma (Carlisle, Pa.: SSI,
2011); Michael Richardson, A Time Bomb for Global Trade: Maritime-related Terrorism in an Age of
Weapons of Mass Destruction (London: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2004).

97

21
2006517-20

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98
Niall Ferguson, Civilization: The West and the Rest (New York: Allen Lane, 2011); Martin Jacques,
(02)2705-5066

18

99


100

101

102


60

60

When China Rules the WorldThe End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order (New
York: Penguin Press HC, 2009).
99

Anthony Giddens
The Politics of Climate Change2011
515

100

21
2006550-64

101
20095
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102
201051312
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19

Andrew J. NathanAndrew Scobell

103

James Fallows

104

105

106

107


108


109

103

Andrew J. Nathan, Andrew Scobell, Chinas Search for Security (New York: Columbia University
Press, 2012), pp.69.

104

James FallowsThe Rise of the New East Asian


Economic and PoliticalSystem199621

105

199547

106

199533-4

107

4062001111213-30

108

20029303-372

1999341-76
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109

20067
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20

110


111

112

113

114


115

116

117

118


119

110

2001884-94

111

2009111
2009137-40

112

19993365-388

113

2009240-41

114

John & Doris NaisbittChinas Megatrends: The 8


Pillars of a New Society2009102640-41

115

Martin Jacques,When China Rules The World: The Rise of the Middle
Kingdom and the End of the Western World,London: Penguin Books, 2012), pp.476-477
Joshua Cooper Ramo
The Age of Unthinkable200910200-205

116

20111176

117

1999736

Anand Girdharadas, Chinese Dreams: An Essay, Amazon Digital Services, January 17, 2011.
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119
199537
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, 2014.09

ISBN 978-957-11-7799-1 ()
1.2.
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