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Expected Economic Loss estimation of School Infrastructure in Naltona Union,

Barguna, Bangladesh due to flood and storm surge, earthquake and cyclone.
Bangladesh is among the most disaster prone countries in the world. It experiences extreme
weather conditions and disastrous hazards including: flooding, earthquakes, cyclones and
tidal surges. Several factors including geographical location, vast network of rivers &
channels, an enormous discharge of water heavily laden with sediment, a large number of
islands in between the channels, a shallow northern Bay of Bengal and funneling to the
coastal area of Bangladesh and strong tidal and wind action make the country more
vulnerable to natural disasters. Every year different hazards cause loss of lives and
widespread damage to the economy of Bangladesh. The Naltona Union, Barguna is one of the
most vulnerable areas for disaster since it is located near the Bay of Bengal, at the southern
most part of our country.
Being a disaster prone country, in Bangladesh, the emphasis to make schools safe place of
learning for children is of paramount importance. The United Nations International Strategy
on Disaster Reduction has also given high priority to make school safer. So estimation of
expected economic losses of the school infrastructure in those areas will help the government
and the school authority to have a rough idea about the probable economic loss that can occur
due to a disaster.
There are two types of economic losses due to disaster, such as direct loss and indirect loss.
Direct economic loss quantifies the cost of repair, replacement of structures and lifeline
systems that are damaged as a consequence of a disaster. Example : Repair and replacement
cost of building stocks ,building contents and inventory costs, business interruption losses,
loss of power failure and public utility, loss of transportation and lifeline system.
On the other hand, indirect economic loss assesses the broad and long term implications of
the direct impacts. It estimates the impacts of economic sectors over time and accounts for
both disaster induced supply shortages and demand reductions. Examples of indirect losses
are: Changes in price level, Inflation, Income level, National income/GDP, Unemployment,
loss in different sectors of the economy such as agriculture, manufacturing and service sector.
Compared to a natural disaster's direct effects, indirect losses are more difficult to identify
and measure, and are generally spread over a much wider area.

In this report I have estimated both the direct and indirect expected economic losses of the 21
school infrastructure in Naltona Union, Barguna.
Goals and Objectives:
Being a disaster prone country, every year a good number of academic institutions in
Bangladesh especially school buildings get damaged due to the impact of natural hazards. As
a result, the regular curriculum of the schools gets interrupted and a number of students drop
out of the schools. Because schools are the place where students get their basic education, the
emphasis to make schools safe place of learning for children is of paramount importance.
Realizing the facts, ADPC Bangladesh office conducted the Structural Vulnerabilities of
School Infrastructure in Naltona Union, Barguna, Bangladesh. The study has been
conducted in 21 buildings of 19 selected schools of Naltona Union, Barguna district of
Bangladesh. As an intern in ADPC now we are going to estimate the expected economic loss
of the 21 school buildings based on the findings of structural vulnerability report of ADPC.
The outcome of the study can also be a guideline for the probable loss that can be expected
by those schools if a disaster such as flood, cyclone and earthquake occurs.

Objectives of the study

Calculating the expected direct economic loss of school infrastructure

Calculating the expected indirect economic loss of school infrastructure

Analysis of findings

Overview of the study area:


Barguna Sadar Upazila in Barguna district is located in between 2158 and 2215 north
latitudes and in between 8959 and 9014 east longitudes. It is surrounded by the Bay of
Bengal on its southern part. Naltona Union, the south most part of Barguna Sadar Upzila is
the project area for this particular study. Being located near the sea, Naltona union is very
much vulnerable to flood and storm surge, cyclone and earthquake. 21 school buildings of 19
schools (both Primary and Secondary) of the Union have been studied for estimating
expected economic loss estimation. Focus of the hazard assessment in this project will be
limited to selected hazards only based on the secondary sources (MRVAM 2014). These
hazards are most common and very frequent in Baraguna District. The whole study area is

subjected to water level rise of a range of 90-180 cm. The range for storm surge inundation is
about 0.9 m to 1.8 m. For Cyclone, basic wind speed has been taken from BNBC 2006, which
is 260 Km/hr for Barguna, which has been used for Vulnerability Assessment. Finally for
earthquake, Naltona Union is falling under low earthquake hazard range.
Literature Review:
Natural disasters leave bad impacts on the educational sector. Many educational institutions
in Bangladesh are destroyed either partly or completely in natural disasters. Educational
institutions, especially primary and secondary levels are highly affected with the natural
disasters in Bangladesh. So education is hampered very much, especially in the rural areas of
Bangladesh. Some statistical facts are presented below (Karim,):
Cyclone of 1991, total 9287 educational institutions were damaged either fully or
partly. Among them, primary schools were 5,148 and secondary schools were 1693
Cyclone Sidr in 2007 , in educational sectors resulted in a total value of damage and
losses of BDT 4.7 billion, as some 5,927 educational institutions were partly or fully
damaged. An estimated 4,879 registered secondary and higher secondary schools,
colleges and madrashaes existed prior to the disaster. Out of these, a total of 3,736
(76.6 percent) were either fully or partially

damaged, of which 787 (16 percent)

were fully damaged (The Government of Bangladesh, 2008).

Immediately after any natural disaster students lose their educational materials in the cyclone,
as most people lose their houses. The reconstruction of so many building is very expensive
and time-consuming matter. Many poor students have to stop going to schools for poverty. So
they start looking for means of livelihood at an early age of life. Thus educational activities
are often hindered in Bangladesh due to natural disasters (The World Bank, 2009).
Socio economic Impacts of Disasters on Education Sector:
Floods generally cause much more damage than droughts do in the education sector. Every
year, floods provoke delay of study programs and school damages, mainly those located in
the aforementioned flood prone areas. The compilation of 2006 data obtained from SEILA
Program and the 2003 survey data of WFP/NCDM proves that about 21% of schools in
Cambodia are situated in flood prone areas which equal 1,886 schools, of which 65 percent
are primary schools. Those vulnerable schools are mostly in Kampong Thom (17 percent),

Kandal (15 percent), and Prey Veng (12 percent). The majority of those schools are primary
schools.Among 92 schools interviewed to assess the impacts of flood in Cambodia about 78
% are flooded every year and the scenario gets worsen as 22% are flooded every few years or
rarely. The duration of flooding occurs for more than 3 months per year, ranging from July to
early December. The impacts that are found from the study are:
most of flooding affects schooling at the beginning of the academic year
Flood is one of the factors disrupting study program accomplishment
students always encounter difficulties to go to schools because of road
damages and having to travel across rivers
Mostly, they have to catch a boat to study, which takes longer time and higher
costs to reach schools. Such difficulties could in turn lead to high absenteeism
rate among poor students at the beginning of each academic year.
In some cases, schools were used as an emergency shelters during flooding
time, resulting in damages of school structures, especially school floor.
The other problems incurred by the study in Cambodia due a disaster on the education sectors
are:

Difficulty in Accessing the Schools

High Drop-out Rate caused by Floods

Disruptions to the completion of the Study Programs

Unable to use of Schools as Emergency Shelters

Methodology:
For direct loss estimation I have used the following formula to calculate the expected direct
economic loss of school infrastructure:
Direct economic loss = (Damage ratio) X (Cost of the school infrastructure)
I have found out the cost of school infrastructure using a multiple regression model:
Yi = Bo + B1X1i + B2X2i + B3X3i + B4X4i + B5X5i + B6X6i + B7X7i, {where i=1 to 21}
Yi = cost of infrastructure for school building i.
Bo = fixed cost of school infrastructure such as cost of solar panel, water tank, library, etc.
B1 = per square feet construction cost of school building.
X1i = total area of school building i.

B2 = per square feet construction cost of school playground.


X2i = total area of school playground in school building i.
B3 = construction cost per square feet of approach road in school compound.
X3i = area of approach road in school building i.
B4 = present value of tube well in school compound.
X4i = number of tube well in each school compound i.
B5 = present value of furniture in each class room.
X5 = total number of class room in school building i.
B6 = present value of furniture in each teachers room.
X6i = total number of teachers room in school building i.
B7 = construction cost of toilet outside school building.
X7i = total number of toilet outside school building i.
I have collected the rates such as per square feet cost of school building from LGED office
and gathered the other information from Disaster Management Bureau, Dhaka. And the size
of the school buildings, play ground and other information was gathered from the survey
conducted by ADPC of the 21 school buildings in Naltona Union, Barguna. And the field
information such as the cost of water tank, setup cost of solar panel and also the cost of
furniture in each class room, teachers room and library was collected from the Project
Implementation Officer (PIO) of the UNO office in Barguna Sadar Upazila. And the
remaining information used was from expert advice such as engineer, constructor, etc.
The damage ratio of the 21 school buildings for each disaster such as flood and storm surge,
cyclone and earthquake have been collected from the report Structural Vulnerabilities of
School Infrastructure in Naltona Union, Barguna, Bangladesh, prepared by ADPC.
Damage Functions:
Damage functions utilized in this study for different hazards have been adopted from MultiHazard Risk Assessment Project of Bangladesh Government (MRVAM 2014). The
vulnerability functions specially developed for this study are based on the mathematical
formulation used by International Center for Numerical Methods in Engineering (CIMNE),
2013:

E[] is expected damage ratio (0 = no damage, 1 = complete damage)


E is maximum possible damage ratio (normally 1)
V is hazard intensity parameter
is intensity level giving 50% damage ratio
is a curve shape parameter
Vulnerability assessment for different hazards will be based on the following tables and
figures on damage functions:
Damage Functions for Flood and Storm Surge Hazard:
Vulnerability Assessment for Flood Hazard
Reference

CIMNE (2013). Section 5.6 and Appendix 19.

Hazard intensity measure

Max water level above ground

Output parameter

Mean damage ratio

Suitability

of

model

for Although the model is not specifically designed for

Bangladesh

Bangladesh, it is designed to be used globally and

Partly

considers building types and construction practices in


different countries.

Input properties of element at

Jhupri

CIMNE
(2013)
class
F1L

Kutcha

F1L

Semi-Pucka

F2L

Pucka

F2M

Class

risk

Figure: Vulnerability Curve for Flood Hazard(Source: MRVAM 2014)

After the study conducted by ADPC Bangladesh office on Structural Vulnerabilities of


School Infrastructure in Naltona Union, Barguna, Bangladesh, it was derived that the
inundation depth of Naltona Union Barguna for flood hazard is 1.5m. Inundation depth is
derived by deducting the level of flood from the height of the land that is flooded. Flood
levels are assessed by employing mathematical modeling software systems. Land levels are
obtained from digital elevation model. Hence, by subtracting land levels from flood levels
flood depths (inundation depth) are found.
At 1.5m inundation depth, the damage ratio for pucka school buildings in that area is 20%,
semi-packa is 30% and kutcha school building is 50%.
Damage Functions for Cyclone Hazard:

Vulnerability Assessment for Cyclone/Wind Storm


Observation from NGIs field trip in Bangladesh
in Oct.13 and various references (see Appendix
in report).
Hazard intensity measure Maximum wind speed (km/hr)
Output parameter
Mean damage ratio
Suitability of model for The model is based on the wind damage
Bangladesh
functions found in the literature and the
observations made during the NGI field trip in
Partly
Bangladesh in October 2013.
Reference

Housing

Figure: Vulnerability Curve for Cyclone(Source: MRVAM 2014)

For Cyclone, basic wind speed has been taken from BNBC 2006, which is 260 Km/hr for
Barguna, which has been used for Vulnerability Assessment. Using this information, the
damage ratio for cyclone for katche school building is 100%, for semi-packa and packa is
50%.
Damage Functions for Earthquake Hazard:

Vulnerability Assessment for Earthquake


Reference

Housing

CIMNE (2013). Chapter 5 Physical vulnerability


functions facing each hazard
Hazard intensity measure CIMNE(2013) uses elastic spectral acceleration
for 5% damping as hazard intensity parameter.
In this study an equivalent peak ground
acceleration (PGA) is estimated based on
procedures given in Eurocode 8 (2004),
assuming semi-stiff ground and eigen-periods of
004), assuming semi-stiff ground and eigenperiods of Te = 0.3 s (Jhupri, Kutcha, SemiPucka and Pucka, low rise), and Te = 0.6 s
(Pucka, medium rise) and Te = 1.0 s (Pucka,
high rise)
Output parameter
Mean damage ratio

Vulnerability Assessment for Earthquake


Suitability of model for
Bangladesh
Very Well

Using the mapping proposed by CIMNE (2013),


Bangladesh is assumed to have a Low country
development level and have Low seismic hazard
level giving Low (L) or Poor (P) seismic design
level.

Housing
Input properties of

element at risk

Earthquake vulnerability functions

Figure: Damage Functions for Earthquake (Source: MRVAM 2014)


From the Earthquake Hazard Map of Naltona Union, Barguna it was found that Naltona
Union is falling under low earthquake hazard range. For Katcha school buildings the damage
ratio of earthquake is 5% and for packa and semi-packa school buildings, it is 15%.
Finally, multiplying the damage ratio with the respective schools approximate cost of
infrastructure I have derived the expected direct economic loss of school infrastructure in
Naltona Union Barguna.
Indirect economic loss estimates the lost income/output/incentives due to a disaster. In the 21
school buildings in Naltona Union Barguna, indirect loss includes:
Lost output (in terms of fish) from ponds existing in 8 out of 21 school compound due
to flood and storm surge, cyclone and earthquake.
Lost output (in terms of fruits) from trees existing in those school campuses.

Lost incentives (in terms of money or food) per children for coming to school during
the school closure period after a disaster.
At the end, I have tried to show some correlation of our findings.
Limitations:
One of the major limitations of my study was that I could not physically visit the school
buildings and the campuses and so I was unaware about the following information:
Size of the boundary wall (if there is any) existing in the school premises.
Type of trees existing in the school compound and its market value and also its output
(income from trees) per year.
Size of the pond existing in the school compound and its output per year.
We are also unsure about the exact length of the approach road in the school
compound; we have estimated it from the architectural layout of the school premises.
So both the direct and indirect economic losses have been underestimated due to lack of
information.
Calculating the Direct Economic Loss:
Direct Economic loss is the repairmen or the replacement cost of school buildings, furniture,
utilities, playgrounds, roads and other infrastructure within the school compound.
Direct economic loss = (Damage ratio) X (Cost of the school infrastructure)
We have collected the damage ratio of the 21 school buildings for flood and storm surge,
cyclone and earthquake from the report Structural Vulnerabilities of School Infrastructure
in Naltona Union, Barguna, Bangladesh. And we have calculated the cost of school
infrastructure using the multiple regression model:
Yi = Bo + B1X1i + B2X2i + B3X3i + B4X4i + B5X5i + B6X6i + B7X7i, {where i=1 to 21}
Yi = cost of infrastructure for school building i.
Bo = fixed cost of school infrastructure such as cost of solar panel, water tank, library, etc,
where the cost of water tank and library has been considered to be Tk20000 each and the cost
of solar panel and its accessories has been considered to be Tk40000.

10

B1 = per square feet construction cost of school building {per sq feet cost of katche building
is Tk400, semi packa is Tk900 and packa isTk1400}.
X1i = total area of school building i.
B2 = per square feet construction cost of school playground {Tk100 per sq feet}.
X2i = total area of school playground in school building i.
B3 = construction cost per square feet of approach road in school compound {Tk100 per sq
feet for mud road and Tk150 per sq feet for brick road}.
X3i = area of approach road in school building i.
B4 = present value of tube well in school compound {Tk10000 per tube well}.
X4i = number of tube well in each school compound i.
B5 = present value of furniture in each class room {Tk15000 for katcha class room, Tk20000
for semi packa and Tk25000 for packa}.
X5 = total number of class room in school building i.
B6 = present value of furniture in each teachers room {Tk20000 for katcha teachers room,
Tk30000 for semi packa and Tk40000 for packa}.
X6i = total number of teachers room in school building i.
B7 = construction cost of toilet outside school building { construction cost of katche toilet is
Tk15000 and semi packa toilet is Tk25000}.
X7i = total number of toilet outside school building i.
The detail calculations of the cost of infrastructure have been shown in the annexure.

11

Serial Name of Schools


no
Noltona govt. Primary
1
School
Golbunia govt. Primary
2
School
Nishanbaria govt. Primary
3
School
Garjanbunia govt. primary
4A
school (Building 1) C3L
Garjanbunia govt. primary
4B
school (Building 2) BFL
Garjanbunia high school and
5A
College (Building 1 )
Garjanbunia high school and
5B
College (Building 2 )
Uttorpadma Adarsha Reg.
6
Primary School
Aga padma Surja Ujjal Reg.
7
Primary School
Babuganj govt. Primary
8
School
Purba Garjanbunia govt.
9
primary school
Shialia govt. Primary school

10

Shialia govt. High school


(Under construction)
Babuganj Adarsha Secondary
School
Gorapadma govt. Primary
School
Sonatola govt. Primary
School
Maddha Gazi Mahmood Reg.
Primary School
G.N.S Adarsha Maddhomik
Girls High School
Gazi Mahmood govt.
Primary School
Gazi Mahmood Nimno
Maddhomik School
Pashchim Nishanbaria Reg.
Primary School

11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

Building type
by MRVAM
Study

Damage
probability
for flood and
Cost of
storm surge
school
(return period
infrastructure(TK) 25 years )

Direct
Economic
loss(TK) due
to flood and
storm surge

1460275

0.3

438082.5

900388

0.5

450194

9541968

0.2

1908394

17413406

0.2

3482681

1516752

0.3

455025.6

19137825

0.2

3827565

2892946

0.2

578589.2

561296

0.5

280648

2503200

0.2

500640

7903008

0.5

3951504

3236512

0.2

647302.4

15860296

0.2

3172059

3108576

0.2

621715.2

3805272

0.2

761054.4

2583122

0.2

516624.4

2017504

0.2

403500.8

535994

0.5

267997

959472

0.5

479736

6767996

0.2

1353599

1558381

0.3

467514.3

2522786

0.2

504557.2

Semi Pucka
Kutcha
Pucka
Pucka
Semi Pucka
Pucka
Pucka
Kutcha
Pucka
Kutcha
Pucka
Pucka
Pucka
Pucka
Pucka
Pucka
Kutcha
Kutcha
Pucka
Semi Pucka
Pucka

Table: Direct Economic Loss Calculation due to Flood and Storm Surge

12

4500000
4000000
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0

Noltona govt. Primary


Golbunia govt. Primary
Nishanbaria govt. Primary
Garjanbunia govt. primary
Garjanbunia govt. primary
Garjanbunia high school
Garjanbunia high school
Uttorpadma Adarsha Reg.
Aga padma Surja Ujjal Reg.
Babuganj govt. Primary
Purba Garjanbunia govt.
Shialia govt. Primary school
Shialia govt. High school
Babuganj Adarsha
Gorapadma govt. Primary
Sonatola govt. Primary
Maddha Gazi Mahmood
G.N.S Adarsha Maddhomik
Gazi Mahmood govt.
Gazi Mahmood Nimno
Pashchim Nishanbaria

Direct economic loss (in TK) for flood and storm surge

Direct economic loss for flood and


storm surge

Figure: Direct Economic Loss for Flood and Storm Surge


We can see from the above graph that the highest direct economic loss is incurred by
Babuganj govt. Primary School, followed by Garjanbunia high school and College
(Building 1), which has incurred the second highest direct economic loss. Although the cost
of infrastructure is low in Babuganj govt. Primary School since the school building type is
katche, however, because its probability of damage due to flood is high, so its economic loss
is also high. On the other hand, the probability of damage due to flood is low in Garjanbunia
high school and College (Building 1), only 20%, but because it is a packa building and its
cost of infrastructure is high and so it is also incurring huge economic loss.
On the contrary, Maddha Gazi Mahmood Reg. Primary School and Uttorpadma Adarsha
Reg. Primary School are incurring the lowest direct economic loss due to flood and storm
surge, although its damage probability is high, 50%, but because its cost of infrastructure is
low since both the school buildings are katche buildings, its direct economic loss due to flood
and storm surge are also low.

13

Serial Name of Schools


no
Noltona govt. Primary School
1
2

Golbunia govt. Primary School

Nishanbaria govt. Primary


3 School
Garjanbunia govt. primary
4A school (Building 1) C3L

4B
5A
5B
6
7
8
9
10

Garjanbunia govt. primary


school (Building 2) BFL
Garjanbunia high school and
College (Building 1 )
Garjanbunia high school and
College (Building 2 )
Uttorpadma Adarsha Reg.
Primary School
Aga padma Surja Ujjal Reg.
Primary School
Babuganj govt. Primary
School
Purba Garjanbunia govt.
primary school
Shialia govt. Primary school

Shialia govt. High school


11 (Under construction)
Babuganj Adarsha Secondary
12 School
Gorapadma govt. Primary
13 School
Sonatola govt. Primary
14 School
Maddha Gazi Mahmood Reg.
15 Primary School
G.N.S Adarsha Maddhomik
16 Girls High School
Gazi Mahmood govt. Primary
17 School

18

Gazi Mahmood Nimno


Maddhomik School

Pashchim Nishanbaria Reg.


19 Primary School

Building
type by
MRVAM
Study
Cost of school
infrastructure(TK)
Semi
Pucka
1460275
Kutcha
900388
Pucka
9541968
Pucka
17413406
Semi
Pucka
1516752
Pucka
19137825
Pucka
2892946
Kutcha
561296
Pucka
2503200
Kutcha
7903008
Pucka
3236512
Pucka
15860296
Pucka
3108576
Pucka
3805272
Pucka
2583122
Pucka
2017504
Kutcha
535994
Kutcha
959472
Pucka
6767996
Semi
Pucka
1558381
Pucka
2522786

Damage
probability
for
cyclone(basic Direct Economic
wind speed
loss(TK) due to
260 km/hr)
cyclone

Table: Direct Economic Loss Calculation due to Cyclone

14

0.5

730137.5

900388

0.3

2862590

0.3

5224022

0.5

758376

0.3

5741348

0.3

867883.8

561296

0.3

750960

7903008

0.3

970953.6

0.3

4758089

0.3

932572.8

0.3

1141582

0.3

774936.6

0.3

605251.2

535994

959472

0.3

2030399

0.5

779190.5

0.3

756835.8

Pashchim Nishanbaria

Gazi Mahmood Nimno

Gazi Mahmood govt.

G.N.S Adarsha

Maddha Gazi Mahmood

Sonatola govt. Primary

Gorapadma govt.

Babuganj Adarsha

Shialia govt. High school

Shialia govt. Primary

Purba Garjanbunia govt.

Babuganj govt. Primary

Aga padma Surja Ujjal

Uttorpadma Adarsha

Garjanbunia high school

Garjanbunia high school

Garjanbunia govt.

Garjanbunia govt.

Nishanbaria govt.

Golbunia govt. Primary

8000000
7000000
6000000
5000000
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000
0

Noltona govt. Primary

Direct Economic loss (in TK) due to cyclone

Figure: Direct Economic Loss due to Cyclone


We can see from the above graph that the highest direct economic loss due to cyclone is
incurred by Babuganj govt. Primary School, followed by Garjanbunia high school and
College (Building 1), which has incurred the second highest direct economic loss. Although
the cost of infrastructure is low in Babuganj govt. Primary School since the school building
type is katche, however, because its probability of damage due to cyclone is high, 100%, so
its economic loss is also high. On the other hand, the probability of damage due to cyclone is
low in Garjanbunia high school and College (Building 1), only 30%, but because it is a packa
building and its cost of infrastructure is high and so it is also incurring huge economic loss.
On the contrary, Maddha Gazi Mahmood Reg. Primary School and Uttorpadma Adarsha
Reg. Primary School are incurring the lowest direct economic loss due to cyclone because
both the schools damage probability due to cyclone is 100% and both the school buildings are
katche and have very low cost of infrastructure.

15

Serial
Name of Schools
no
1
2
3
4A
4B
5A
5B
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

Noltona govt. Primary School


Golbunia govt. Primary
School
Nishanbaria govt. Primary
School
Garjanbunia govt. primary
school (Building 1) C3L
Garjanbunia govt. primary
school (Building 2) BFL
Garjanbunia high school and
College (Building 1 )
Garjanbunia high school and
College (Building 2 )
Uttorpadma Adarsha Reg.
Primary School
Aga padma Surja Ujjal Reg.
Primary School
Babuganj govt. Primary
School
Purba Garjanbunia govt.
primary school
Shialia govt. Primary school
Shialia govt. High school
(Under construction)
Babuganj Adarsha Secondary
School
Gorapadma govt. Primary
School
Sonatola govt. Primary
School
Maddha Gazi Mahmood Reg.
Primary School
G.N.S Adarsha Maddhomik
Girls High School
Gazi Mahmood govt. Primary
School
Gazi Mahmood Nimno
Maddhomik School
Pashchim Nishanbaria Reg.
Primary School

Building
Type by
MRVAM
Study

Damage
probability for
earthquake 43
Cost of school
years returning
infrastructure(TK) period)

Semi Pucka
1460275

0.15

219041.3

900388

0.05

45019.4

9541968

0.15

1431295

17413406

0.15

2612011

1516752

0.15

227512.8

19137825

0.15

2870674

2892946

0.15

433941.9

561296

0.05

28064.8

2503200

0.15

375480

7903008

0.05

395150.4

3236512

0.15

485476.8

15860296

0.15

2379044

3108576

0.15

466286.4

3805272

0.15

570790.8

2583122

0.15

387468.3

2017504

0.15

302625.6

535994

0.05

26799.7

959472

0.05

47973.6

6767996

0.15

1015199

1558381

0.15

233757.2

2522786

0.15

378417.9

Kutcha
Pucka
Pucka
Semi Pucka
Pucka
Pucka
Kutcha
Pucka
Kutcha
Pucka
Pucka
Pucka
Pucka
Pucka
Pucka
Kutcha
Kutcha
Pucka
Semi Pucka
Pucka

Table: Direct Economic Loss Calculation due to Earthquake

16

Direct
Economic
loss(TK) due
to
earthquake

3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0

Noltona govt. Primary


Golbunia govt.
Nishanbaria govt.
Garjanbunia govt.
Garjanbunia govt.
Garjanbunia high
Garjanbunia high
Uttorpadma Adarsha
Aga padma Surja Ujjal
Babuganj govt.
Purba Garjanbunia
Shialia govt. Primary
Shialia govt. High
Babuganj Adarsha
Gorapadma govt.
Sonatola govt.
Maddha Gazi
G.N.S Adarsha
Gazi Mahmood govt.
Gazi Mahmood
Pashchim

Direct Economic loss (in TK) due to earthquake

Figure: Direct Economic Loss due to Earthquake


Although the probability of damage due to earthquake is low (15%) in Garjanbunia high
school and College (Building 1), its direct economic loss is high since its cost of
infrastructure is very high compared to the other schools. The same is the case for
Garjanbunia govt. primary school (Building 1) C3L.
On the contrary, Maddha Gazi Mahmood Reg. Primary School, Golbunia govt. Primary
School and G.N.S Adarsha Maddhomik Girls High School are incurring low direct
economic loss because its damage ratio and cost of infrastructure are low since three of the
school buildings are katche.
Calculating the Indirect Economic Loss:
Indirect economic loss is the lost income/output/incentives of the schools due to a disaster. In
case of indirect loss estimation, the lost income of the 19 schools in Naltona Union, Barguna
include lost output from the ponds, trees and lost incentives (money or food) due to closure of
the school after a disaster.

8 out of the 19 schools have a pond in their campuses. If the average yearly income
from fishing in each of the pond is TK 50000, then the amount which is lost due to
flood, cyclone and earthquake is the indirect loss due to flood, cyclone and
earthquake. For instance, if in any year the income from each of the pond turned out
to be TK 40000, then TK 10000 is the lost income or the indirect loss due to flood.

17

The same is the case for lost output from trees in the school campus. All the schools
in the Naltona Union, Barguna have trees. So if the yearly output from trees in each
campus is TK 50000, then the portion of TK 50000 which is lost due to flood, cyclone
and earthquake in a year is the indirect loss of the schools.

For both the cases the indirect loss depends upon the duration of the disaster and the intensity
of the disaster. The greater is the intensity of flood, cyclone and earthquake and the longer
time these disasters stay, the higher is the indirect loss and vice versa.
o Usually in the government primary schools and registered primary schools in the
village, a certain amount of money per student per month (such as TK 100 per
student per month) for encouraging students for coming to schools. Similarly, foods
are also being provided in some schools from the government organization as well as
the NGOs. When the schools remain close after disaster, these incentives are lost.
These are known as the indirect economic loss. Again, the loss amount depends upon
the closure period of the schools due to a disaster which again depends upon the
intensity of the disaster.
Due to lack of information about the yearly output, monthly or daily incentives and also the
intensity of a disaster, we cannot estimate the accurate indirect loss of the schools.

18

19

20000000

15000000

10000000

5000000
Direct eonomic
loss for
earthquake

Cost of
infrastructure
0

Noltona govt.
Garjanbunia govt.
Garjanbunia high
Babuganj govt.
Shialia govt. High
Sonatola govt.
Gazi Mahmood govt.

Noltona govt. Primary


Golbunia govt. Primary
Nishanbaria govt. Primary
Garjanbunia govt. primary
Garjanbunia govt. primary
Garjanbunia high school
Garjanbunia high school
Uttorpadma Adarsha Reg.
Aga padma Surja Ujjal
Babuganj govt. Primary
Purba Garjanbunia govt.
Shialia govt. Primary school
Shialia govt. High school
Babuganj Adarsha
Gorapadma govt.
Sonatola govt. Primary
Maddha Gazi Mahmood
G.N.S Adarsha
Gazi Mahmood govt.
Gazi Mahmood Nimno
Pashchim Nishanbaria

Noltona govt.
Garjanbunia govt.
Garjanbunia high
Babuganj govt.
Shialia govt. High
Sonatola govt.
Gazi Mahmood govt.

Analysis of Findings:
The higher is the cost of infrastructure, the greater is the direct economic loss.

25000000

20000000

15000000

10000000

5000000

Cost of infrastructure

Direct economic loss for flood

The same is true for cyclone and


earthquake.

25000000

30000000

25000000

20000000

15000000

10000000

5000000
Direct
economic loss
due to
cyclone

Figure: Comparison between Direct Economic Loss and Cost of Infrastructure

The higher is the cost of infrastructure, the lower is the damage probability of flood
and cyclone.
Cost of
infrastructure

20
Pashchim

Gazi Mahmood

Gazi Mahmood govt.

G.N.S Adarsha

Maddha Gazi

Sonatola govt.

Gorapadma govt.

Babuganj Adarsha

Shialia govt. High

Shialia govt. Primary

Purba Garjanbunia

Babuganj govt.

Aga padma Surja Ujjal

Uttorpadma Adarsha

Garjanbunia high

Garjanbunia high

Garjanbunia govt.

Garjanbunia govt.

Noltona govt.
Golbunia govt.
Nishanbaria govt.
Garjanbunia govt.
Garjanbunia govt.
Garjanbunia high
Garjanbunia high
Uttorpadma
Aga padma Surja
Babuganj govt.
Purba
Shialia govt.
Shialia govt. High
Babuganj Adarsha
Gorapadma govt.
Sonatola govt.
Maddha Gazi
G.N.S Adarsha
Gazi Mahmood
Gazi Mahmood
Pashchim

Nishanbaria govt.

Golbunia govt.

Noltona govt. Primary

Cost of infrastructure

25000000

20000000

15000000

10000000

5000000

Damage Probability due to flood

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

G.N.S Adarsha

Gazi Mahmood

Gazi Mahmood

Pashchim

G.N.S Adarsha

Gazi Mahmood

Gazi Mahmood

Pashchim

Maddha Gazi

Sonatola govt.

Gorapadma govt.

Shialia govt. High

Babuganj Adarsha

Shialia govt.

Purba

Babuganj govt.

Uttorpadma

Aga padma Surja

Garjanbunia high

Garjanbunia high

Garjanbunia govt.

Garjanbunia govt.

Golbunia govt.

Nishanbaria govt.

1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0

Noltona govt.

Damage probability due to cyclone

Maddha Gazi

Sonatola govt.

Gorapadma

Babuganj

Shialia govt.

Shialia govt.

Purba

Babuganj govt.

Aga padma

Uttorpadma

Garjanbunia

Garjanbunia

Garjanbunia

Nishanbaria

Garjanbunia

Golbunia govt.

0.16
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0

Noltona govt.

Damage probability due to


earthquake

Figure: Comparison between Cost of Infrastructure and Damage Ratio


So there is an inverse correlation between the cost of infrastructure and probability of damage
of flood and cyclone, although in case of earthquake the scenario is different. This is because
the cost of infrastructure is low for katche and semi packa buildings but these buildings are
mostly vulnerable to flood and cyclone, whereas the packa concrete buildings are mostly
vulnerable to earthquake.

The higher is the probability of damage, the greater is the percentage of direct
economic loss.

21

4500000
4000000
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0

22

economic loss due to flood.


Pashchim

Gazi Mahmood

Gazi Mahmood

G.N.S Adarsha

Maddha Gazi

Sonatola govt.

Gorapadma govt.

Babuganj Adarsha

Shialia govt. High

Shialia govt.

Purba

Babuganj govt.

Aga padma Surja

Uttorpadma

Garjanbunia high

Garjanbunia high

Garjanbunia govt.

Garjanbunia govt.

Nishanbaria govt.

Golbunia govt.

Pashchim

Gazi

Gazi

G.N.S

Maddha

Sonatola

Gorapadma

Babuganj

Shialia

Shialia

Purba

Babuganj

Aga padma

Uttorpadm

Garjanbuni

Garjanbuni

Garjanbuni

Garjanbuni

Nishanbari

Golbunia

Noltona

0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0

Noltona govt.

Damage Probability due to flood

Direct economic loss for flood

Figure: Comparison between Probability of Damage and Direct Economic Loss due to Flood

For most of the schools, the higher is the damage probability of flood, the higher is the direct

9000000
8000000
7000000
6000000
5000000
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000
0

23
Noltona govt.
Golbunia govt.
Nishanbaria govt.
Garjanbunia govt.
Garjanbunia govt.
Garjanbunia high
Garjanbunia high
Uttorpadma
Aga padma Surja
Babuganj govt.
Purba
Shialia govt.
Shialia govt. High
Babuganj Adarsha
Gorapadma govt.
Sonatola govt.
Maddha Gazi
G.N.S Adarsha
Gazi Mahmood
Gazi Mahmood
Pashchim

1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Pashchim

Gazi Mahmood

Gazi Mahmood

G.N.S Adarsha

Maddha Gazi

Sonatola govt.

Gorapadma govt.

Babuganj Adarsha

Shialia govt. High

Shialia govt.

Purba

Babuganj govt.

Aga padma Surja

Uttorpadma

Garjanbunia high

Garjanbunia high

Garjanbunia govt.

Garjanbunia govt.

Nishanbaria govt.

Golbunia govt.

Noltona govt.

Damage Probability due to Cyclone

Direct Economic loss due to cyclone

Figure: Comparison between Probability of Damage and Direct Economic Loss due to Cyclone

For some schools the higher damage ratio implies higher economic loss due to cyclone but the

other schools shows inverse relationship between damage ratio and economic loss of cyclone.

0.16
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0

Noltona govt.
Golbunia govt.
Nishanbaria
Garjanbunia
Garjanbunia
Garjanbunia
Garjanbunia
Uttorpadma
Aga padma
Babuganj govt.
Purba
Shialia govt.
Shialia govt.
Babuganj
Gorapadma
Sonatola govt.
Maddha Gazi
G.N.S Adarsha
Gazi Mahmood
Gazi Mahmood
Pashchim

Damage probability due to


earthquake

3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0

Noltona govt.
Golbunia govt.
Nishanbaria
Garjanbunia
Garjanbunia
Garjanbunia
Garjanbunia
Uttorpadma
Aga padma
Babuganj govt.
Purba
Shialia govt.
Shialia govt.
Babuganj
Gorapadma
Sonatola govt.
Maddha Gazi
G.N.S Adarsha
Gazi Mahmood
Gazi Mahmood
Pashchim

Direct economic loss due to


earthquake

Figure: Comparison between Probability of Damage and Direct Economic Loss due to Earthquake
The higher is the damage ratio of earthquake, the higher is the direct economic loss of earthquake
in most of the cases.
However, the probability of damage for flood and cyclone is higher for katha building, whereas
the cost of infrastructure is low for katche building, so the net effect on direct economic loss
depends upon which effect, the cost of infrastructure or the damage probability is higher.
The higher is the duration of the disaster, the greater is the indirect economic loss.
Usually, flood and cyclone stays longer than earthquake and so the indirect economic
loss is greater for flood and cyclone than for earthquake. On the contrary, if the
incentives are given to children for coming to school on monthly basis instead of daily

24

basis, then the incentives are not lost even if the school remains close for 7 to 8 days
for flood or cyclone; in such situation the indirect economic loss of the schools are
minimal.
Recommendations:

Since the Naltona Union, Barguna is located just beside the Bay of Bengal, this Union
is very much vulnerable to flood and cyclone. So the government of our country can
cross subsidize the school infrastructure of the government and registered government
primary and high schools in those areas. This is, instead of equally subsidizing all the
schools our government should reduce the rate of subsidy in the schools existing in the
high land areas and increase subsidy of the school in low land areas such as Naltona
Union so that the kacha and semi packa school buildings can be made packa which
will reduce the probability of damage and thus the direct economic loss will be
reduced.

At the same time various government and non government agencies can give loans to
the katche and semi packa schools on a short term basis at a very low interest rates so
that those schools can restructure themselves in order to reduce their damage
probability and reduce their economic losses.

Alternatively, the schools should also have their disaster risk reduction and
rehabilitation fund so that they can reduce the expected economic loss their own
respective school with their own money.

Conclusion:
Economic losses by severe disaster can cause long-term reductions in the growth of a nations
economy and trigger inflation. Therefore, evaluation of the economic losses is very much
important to better estimate the economic growth/GDP of the nation. Usually the poorer, low
income countries like Bangladesh are more vulnerable to economic losses due to natural
disaster than the rich nations. By estimating the expected economic losses due to a disaster
we can help protect our economy from a severe disaster that is forthcoming. The significance
of calculating the expected economic losses of school infrastructure due to a disaster in
Naltona Union, Barguna is that the government, school authority, local people, students,
teachers and guardians are well aware of the consequences that are expected to occur in the
coming disaster and so that the school authority and the national government can take
precautionary steps in reducing the losses. The government can plan its national policy and

25

programs after incorporating the losses due to the coming disaster and prepare the students
and teachers of the schools accordingly.
Bibliography:
MRVAM (2014). Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Assessment, Modeling & Mapping, an ongoing
project under Department of Disaster Management, Ministry of
Disaster Management & Relief, Peoples Republic of Bangladesh.
ADPC Bangladesh Office. (2014, March). Structural Vulnerabilities in School Infrastructure
N

in Naltona Union, Barguna. Dhaka, ADPC.

Chakos. A. (2004).Learning about seismic safety of schools from community experience in


Berke

Berkely, California. Keeping Schools Safe in Earthquakes, ad hoc experts g

roup

group meeting on earthquake safety in schools Paris, February 9-11, pp-45-51.

51.
ADPC Bangladesh Office. (2009, July). Risk Assessment of Dhaka, Chittagong and Syhlet Co
C

City Corporation Area. Dhaka, ADPC.

Disaster Management Bureau. (2010, April). Standing Orders on Disaster. Dhaka, of


Government of Peoples Republic of Bangladesh.

26