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Gonzaga Debate Institute 2009

Scholars
Timber DA

Timber DA
Timber DA............................................................................1
***Scenarios***...................................................................2
Timber 1NC 1/2 (Bio-D)......................................................3
Timber 1NC 2/2 (Bio-D)......................................................4
Warming Module..................................................................5
Disease Module....................................................................6
***Uniqueness***...............................................................8
Timber Demand Down.........................................................9
Housing Demand Down.....................................................10
Deforestation Down............................................................11
***Links***.......................................................................12
Link Income = Timber.....................................................13
Link Income = Timber.....................................................14
Link Income = Housing...................................................15
Link Housing = Timber...................................................16
***Internal Links***..........................................................17
Timber Demand = Deforestation........................................18
Timber Demand = Deforestation........................................19
***Impacts***...................................................................20
Deforestation Bio-D/Extinction.......................................21
Deforestation Extinction/Biod Loss................................22
Deforestation Poverty......................................................23
Deforestation = Warming...................................................24
***A2 Brazil***................................................................25
A2 Brazil Non-unique.....................................................26
A2 Brazil No Link...........................................................27
***Aff Answers***............................................................28
***Non-Uniques***...........................................................29
Timber Demand Up............................................................30
Housing Demand Up..........................................................31
Deforestation Up................................................................32
***Links Answers***........................................................33
A2 Demand = Deforestation............................................34
No Link Alt Cause...........................................................35
***Impact Answers***......................................................36
Warming I/L Turn...............................................................37
AT Deforestation - Exaggerated......................................38
AT Biodiversity Loss.......................................................39
Deforestation Good Economy/Food................................40
Deforestation Good Economics.......................................41
Brazil Econ Turn Module...................................................42
Brazil UQ Econ Strong....................................................43
Timber k/t Brazilian Econ..................................................44
Brazil- I/L Ext- K Global Econ..........................................45
Brazil- I/L Ext- K Global Econ..........................................46

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2009

Scholars
Timber DA

***Scenarios***

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2009

Scholars
Timber DA

Timber 1NC 1/2 (Bio-D)


Lack of consumer spending has led to falling demand for wood products
Sayre 9 (Alan, 7-7-9, Closes in Louisiana Mills,
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2009/07/07/weyerhaeuser_closes_louisiana_mill/) LE
The housing meltdown has depressed demand for all kinds of wood products. "We fully understand the
major impact of this closure on our employees, contractors and the Taylor community, and we will work
constructively in the weeks and months ahead on the transition," said Tim Gideon, Weyerhaeuser's executive
vice president of forest products. Weyerhaeuser said it would provide transition benefits for the workers. The
closure, announced Tuesday, is effective immediately and puts 39 people out of work. Weyerhaeuser says it
will provide transition benefits. The company said it continues to employ about 925 people in Louisiana at
manufacturing plants in Arcadia, Dodson, Holden, Natchitoches and Taylor and in the managing of about 1
million acres of timber it owns in the state. Problems in the state's wood products industry preceded the
financial meltdown in October and the resulting deep recession. In late 2008, International Paper Co.
closed its pulp mill in Bastrop, terminating 550 employees, in what started as a seven-week shutdown. In
March, Weyerhaeuser indefinitely shut mills in Simsboro and Dodson, eliminating a total of 185 jobs.
Wood products manufacturers also have trimmed payrolls and ordered temporary production shutdowns in an
attempt to balance supply with demand during the recession. Tembec, a Canadian paper products
company, closed its St. Francisville mill in July 2007, ending about 540 jobs with a $50 million annual
payroll. Tembec said it lost $235 million during its first five years of operation after buying the facility in
2001 from Crown Vantage. On April 17, the state announced an incentive deal under which the mill was
purchased by New York-based PanAmerican Capital Group for $16 million. Gov. Bobby Jindal said 200
workers are expected to be employed at the mill by early 2010.

Income increases lead to an increase demand for wood products


Research and Markets 5 (World Outlook for Industrial, Commercial, and Shelving Particleboard Made from
Wood Products Produced at the Same Location 2006-2011) LE
In order to estimate the latent demand for industrial, commercial, and shelving particleboard made from
wood products produced at the same location on a worldwide basis, I used a multi-stage approach.
Before applying the approach, one needs a basic theory from which such estimates are created. In this case, I
heavily rely on the use of certain basic economic assumptions. In particular, there is an assumption governing
the shape and type of aggregate latent demand functions. Latent demand functions relate the income of a
country, city, state, household, or individual to realized consumption. Latent demand (often realized as
consumption when an industry is efficient), at any level of the value chain, takes place if an equilibrium in
realized. For firms to serve a market, they must perceive a latent demand and be able to serve that demand at
a minimal return. The single most important variable determining consumption, assuming latent demand
exists, is income (or other financial resources at higher levels of the value chain). Other factors that can pivot
or shape demand curves include external or exogenous shocks (i.e., business cycles), and or changes in utility
for the product in question.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2009

Scholars
Timber DA

Timber 1NC 2/2 (Bio-D)


The United States destroys forests worldwide when demand is high
Antara News 6 (America Driving Illegal Timber Market, 6-16-6, http://www.bilaterals.org/article.php3?
id_article=5012) LE
US free trade agreements are accelerating the destruction of tropical forests in Asia and Latin America,
according to a report released today by the Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA). EIA is urging the administration and Congress to
enact a law prohibiting entry of illegal timber imports into the US before signing pending free trade agreements with other timber
trading nations. The EIA report, entitled Americas Free Trade for Illegal Timber - how US trade pacts speed the destruction

of the worlds forests, documents an alarming increase in US imports of illegal timber via Singapore since
the US signed a free trade agreement with that country in May 2003. It also describes how US demand is
fuelling an illegal logging crisis in Honduras, with which the US signed a free trade pact last year. The reports release
coincides with the opening of US free trade negotiations with Malaysia, and the third anniversary of the US and Singapore signing of an
environmental side agreement to the US-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (USSFTA), intended to address illegal timber trade. A free
trade agreement with Peru, another country with a massive illegal logging problem, is awaiting Congressional approval. The USSFTA is
serving as the model for the negotiations with Malaysia, despite the failure of the US and Singapore to implement the environmental side
agreement they signed three years ago. The Malaysia FTA, if approved, will result in yet more illegal timber

flooding into the US from endangered, wildlife-rich rainforests. The US is the worlds biggest importer
of wood in the world. According to EIA, US demand drives both illegal logging in developing countries
and illegal timber trade because of US failure to ban imports of illegal wood. The administration has
failed to act despite an agreement by the G8 nations in July 2005 to prohibit illegal timber imports. The US
has also failed to press Singapore to take action against illegal timber trade. "Unfortunately, US free trade
pacts are speeding the destruction of Asian and Latin American forests by failing to prohibit imports of
illegal timber," said Alexander von Bismarck, Campaigns Director for EIAs Washington, DC office. "The
US government must enact a ban on illegal timber imports if it is interested in the health of the global
environment and the US timber industry."

Deforestation causes biodiversity loss and human extinction


Akhand Jyoti 3 (Akhand Jyoti is the leading magazine in Mathura, India. The Disaster of Deforestation March-April 2003.
http://www.akhandjyoti.org/?Akhand-Jyoti/2003/Mar-Apr/Deforestation/)

Imagining Earth without forests is a horrifying picture to conceive. As its knowledge base has expanded and
deepened, mankind has realised that forests are extremely important to the survival of humans and other life
forms on earth. Yet deforestation continues unabated in different parts of the world. According to the World Resource Institute based at
Washington DC (U.S.A.), the rates of rainforest destruction are 2.4 acre per second, 149 acres per minute, 214000 acres per day and 78
million acres per year. Literature survey and research by Stephen Hui reveals that British Columbia has about 40% of its original forests
remaining, while Europe has less than half; the United States have approximately 1-2% of their original forest cover; more than
80% of the planets natural forests have already been destroyed.1 This article examines the importance of forests,
the effects of deforestation on health and environment and an effective remedy to replenish the flora already lost. Plants and animals,
along with microorganisms, comprise life on Earth. Herbivorous animals sustain their life by consuming plants. Carnivorous animals
and birds kill herbivorous animals for food; therefore indirectly they also depend on plants. Sea creatures eat aquatic plants and humans
consume crop plants. A large variety of birds feed on seeds. There would rarely be any animal or bird who do not use plants directly or
indirectly to satisfy their food requirements. It is thus not surprising that tropical forests are the home to 70% of the worlds plants and
animals (more than 13 million distinct species) 30% of all bird species and 90% of invertebrates.2 Loss of forests has led to the

extinction of thousands of species, estimated to be 50000 species annually. Besides being the source for
food, plants help us in a number of other ways. Animals, including humans, inhale oxygen and exhale
carbon dioxide; plants take up carbon dioxide and in return they release oxygen this exchange is very
important. Forests in particular act as a huge carbon dioxide sink. If there were not enough trees to
absorb carbon dioxide, its accumulation would make the environment poisonous. Over the last 150 years, the
amount of carbon dioxide has increased by about 25%.3 Carbon-dioxide also contributes to global warming.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2009

Scholars
Timber DA

Warming Module
Deforestation is the main cause of warming
Daniel Howden, May 14 2007, Deforestation: The Hidden Cause Of Global Warming, deputy foreign editor of
The Independent, (http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/deforestation-the-hidden-cause-ofglobal-warming-448734.html)
The accelerating destruction of the rainforests that form a precious cooling band around the Earth's
equator, is now being recognised as one of the main causes of climate change. Carbon emissions from
deforestation far outstrip damage caused by planes and automobiles and factories. The rampant slashing
and burning of tropical forests is second only to the energy sector as a source of greenhouses gases according
to report published today by the Oxford-based Global Canopy Programme, an alliance of leading rainforest
scientists. Figures from the GCP, summarising the latest findings from the United Nations, and building on
estimates contained in the Stern Report, show deforestation accounts for up to 25 per cent of global
emissions of heat-trapping gases, while transport and industry account for 14 per cent each; and aviation
makes up only 3 per cent of the total. "Tropical forests are the elephant in the living room of climate
change," said Andrew Mitchell, the head of the GCP. Scientists say one days' deforestation is equivalent to
the carbon footprint of eight million people flying to New York. Reducing those catastrophic emissions
can be achieved most quickly and most cheaply by halting the destruction in Brazil, Indonesia, the Congo
and elsewhere. No new technology is needed, says the GCP, just the political will and a system of
enforcement and incentives that makes the trees worth more to governments and individuals standing than
felled. "The focus on technological fixes for the emissions of rich nations while giving no incentive to
poorer nations to stop burning the standing forest means we are putting the cart before the horse," said
Mr Mitchell.

Warming culminates in extinction


Stein 6 (David, Science Editor for the Guardian, Global Warming Xtra: Scientists Warn about Antarctic melting,
http://www.agoracosmopolitan.com/home/Frontpage/2008/07/14/02463.html, AD: 7-8-9) BL
Global Warming continues to be approaches by governments as a "luxury" item, rather than a matter of basic
human survival. Humanity is being taken to its destruction by a greed-driven elite. These elites, which
include 'Big Oil' and other related interests, are intoxicated by "the high" of pursuing ego-driven power, in a
comparable manner to drug addicts who pursue an elusive "high", irrespective of the threat of pursuing that
"high" poses to their own basic survival, and the security of others. Global Warming and the pre-emptive war
against Iraq are part of the same self-destructive prism of a political-military-industrial complex, which is on
a path of mass planetary destruction, backed by techniques of mass-deception." The scientific debate about
human induced global warming is over but policy makers - let alone the happily shopping general public
- still seem to not understand the scope of the impending tragedy. Global warming isn't just warmer
temperatures, heat waves, melting ice and threatened polar bears. Scientific understanding increasingly
points to runaway global warming leading to human extinction", reported Bill Henderson in
CrossCurrents. If strict global environmental security measures are not immediately put in place to keep
further emissions of greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere we are looking at the death of billions, the
end of civilization as we know it and in all probability the end of humankind's several million year old
existence, along with the extinction of most flora and fauna beloved to man in the world we share.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2009

Scholars
Timber DA

Disease Module
Deforestation causes human extinction through new disease outbreaks
Butler 7 (Rhett Butler has been researching and studying rainforests since 1995. INCREASE OF TROPICAL DISEASES
http://rainforests.mongabay.com/0904.htm)

The emergence of tropical diseases and outbreaks of new diseases, including nasty hemorrhagic fevers like ebola
and lassa fever, are a subtle but serious impact of deforestation. With increased human presence in the
rainforest, and exploiters pushing into deeper areas, man is encountering "new" microorganisms with
behaviors unlike those previously known. As the primary hosts of these pathogens are eliminated or
reduced through forest disturbance and degradation, disease can break out among humans. Although
not unleashed yet, someday one of these microscopic killers could lead to a massive human die-off as
deadly for our species as we have been for the species of the rainforest. Until then, local populations will continue
to be menaced by mosquito-borne diseases like dengue fever, Rift Valley fever, and malaria, and water-borne diseases like cholera.
Many emergent and resurgent diseases are directly linked to land alterations which bring humans in closer contact with such pathogens.
For example, malaria and snailborne schistosomiasis have escalated because of the creation of artificial pools of water like dams, rice
paddies, drainage ditches, irrigation canals, and puddles created by tractor treads. Malaria is a particular problem in deforested and
degraded areas, though not in forested zones where there are few stagnant ground pools for mosquito breeding. These pools are most
abundant in cleared regions and areas where tractors tear gashes in the earth. Malaria is already a major threat to indigenous peoples who
have developed no resistance to the disease nor any access to antimalarial drugs. Malaria alone is cited as being responsible for killing
an estimated 20 percent of the Yanomani in Brazil and Venezuela. Malariacaused by unicelluar parasites transferred in the saliva of
mosquitoes when they biteis an especially frightening disease for its drug-resistant forms. Thanks to poor prescribing techniques on
the part of doctors, there are now strains in Southeast Asia reputed to be resistant to more than 20 anti-malarial drugs. There is serious
concern that global climate change will affect the distribution of malaria, which currently infects roughly 270 million people worldwide
and kills 1-2 million a year 430,000-680,000 children in sub-Saharan Africa alone. The outbreak of disease in the tropics does not
affect only the people of those countries, since virtually any disease can be incubated for enough time to allow penetration into the
temperate developed countries. For example, any Central African doctor infected with the ebola virus from a

patient can board a plane and land in London within 10 hours. The virus could quickly spread,
especially if airborne, among the city's population of 8 million. Additionally, every person at the
airport who is exposed can unknowingly carry the pathogen home to their native countries around the
world.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2009

Scholars
Timber DA

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2009

Scholars
Timber DA

***Uniqueness***

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2009

Scholars
Timber DA

Timber Demand Down


The recession has led to less demand and falling timber production
Reuters 9 (Slashes Quarterly Dividend, Reuters, 7-7-9,
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0741930520090707) LE
U.S. timber and forest products company Weyerhaeuser Co (WY.N) cut its quarterly dividend by 80
percent on Tuesday as the outlook for its businesses continued to remain uncertain. Weyerhaeuser and
its peers, which have been hit hard by the recession and the slump in the U.S. housing market, have
permanently shuttered numerous mills, reduced operations at almost all sites, and cut job aggressively.
The company lowered its quarterly dividend to 5 cents a share from 25 cents. "Although our guidance for the
recently completed quarter remains unchanged, the economic outlook for our businesses continues to be
challenged and uncertain," Chief Executive Dan Fulton said in a statement. "In light of these conditions,
this dividend decision enhances our current liquidity and provides for more financial flexibility, including a
possible REIT conversion should the board make that decision in the future," he said. Weyerhaeuser, which
has sold a number of its non-core operations, is considering converting to a real estate investment trust, or
REIT structure, which is more tax efficient than its current corporate structure. "We are taking many
actions, including deferring timber harvest, shutting and curtailing facilities, and reducing costs
wherever possible to preserve our long-term value and improve our performance," Fulton said. The
company also announced the permanent closure of a lumber mill near Taylor, Louisiana, effective
immediately.

The housing crisis has led to falling demand for wood products
Sayre 9 (Alan, 7-7-9, Closes in Louisiana Mills,
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2009/07/07/weyerhaeuser_closes_louisiana_mill/) LE
The housing meltdown has depressed demand for all kinds of wood products. "We fully understand the
major impact of this closure on our employees, contractors and the Taylor community, and we will work
constructively in the weeks and months ahead on the transition," said Tim Gideon, Weyerhaeuser's executive
vice president of forest products. Weyerhaeuser said it would provide transition benefits for the workers. The
closure, announced Tuesday, is effective immediately and puts 39 people out of work. Weyerhaeuser says it
will provide transition benefits. The company said it continues to employ about 925 people in Louisiana at
manufacturing plants in Arcadia, Dodson, Holden, Natchitoches and Taylor and in the managing of about 1
million acres of timber it owns in the state. Problems in the state's wood products industry preceded the
financial meltdown in October and the resulting deep recession. In late 2008, International Paper Co.
closed its pulp mill in Bastrop, terminating 550 employees, in what started as a seven-week shutdown. In
March, Weyerhaeuser indefinitely shut mills in Simsboro and Dodson, eliminating a total of 185 jobs.
Wood products manufacturers also have trimmed payrolls and ordered temporary production shutdowns in an
attempt to balance supply with demand during the recession. Tembec, a Canadian paper products
company, closed its St. Francisville mill in July 2007, ending about 540 jobs with a $50 million annual
payroll. Tembec said it lost $235 million during its first five years of operation after buying the facility in
2001 from Crown Vantage. On April 17, the state announced an incentive deal under which the mill was
purchased by New York-based PanAmerican Capital Group for $16 million. Gov. Bobby Jindal said 200
workers are expected to be employed at the mill by early 2010.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2009

10

Scholars
Timber DA

Housing Demand Down


The Housing market will decline this brings down demand
Reuters 7/9 (Housing crisis not just result of bubble: New York Fed,
http://www.reuters.com/article/gc03/idUSTRE5686DG20090709, 7/9/09, AD: 7/11/09) JC
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Lax lending standards alone did not bring about the housing bubble, according to a
study by the New York Federal Reserve, challenging the widely held view of the origins of the collapse in
home prices. The study released on Thursday argues that swings in labor productivity played a significant
role in the rapid growth and subsequent steep drop in house prices. Consumers thought that because they
were working harder starting in the mid-1990s, their paychecks would follow suit, encouraging them to pay
high prices for housing, the study found. The optimism continued until 2007, when evidence of a slowdown in
productivity helped quash the rosy view and with it the housing boom. Understanding the link between
productivity -- output per hour of work -- and house prices could help inform policy decisions, said James
Kahn, the study's author. "The current housing crisis stemmed in large measure from a change in economic
fundamentals and was only exacerbated by credit market conditions," Kahn, a professor of economics at Yeshiva
University wrote in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Current Issues in Economics and Finance journal.
"Indeed, what appear in retrospect to be relatively lax credit conditions in the early part of this decade may have
emerged in part because of then-justifiable, although ultimately misplaced, optimism about income growth," he said.
Better understanding of what was behind the current housing crisis could help policymakers gauge the impact that
credit market interventions have on the housing market, Kahn said. The link between productivity and the housing
downturn could also offer insight into when house prices will stop falling. If productivity growth reverts to the
higher rates seen between 1996 to 2004 and between 1947 to 1972, the model used by the study suggests that
housing prices will bottom out and begin growing again faster than overall inflation

Housing down now


Oberbeck 7/10 (Steven, The Salt Lake Tribune, Toughest times for Utah housing may be nearing end,
http://www.sltrib.com/business/ci_12812464, 7/10/09, AD: 7/11/09) JC
These are tough times for Utah's home building industry, but better times may lie ahead.
The collapse of the state's housing bubble in 2008 wiped out at least $20 billion in residential real estate
wealth, eliminated thousands of construction jobs and forced hundreds of homebuilders out of business,
according to James Wood, director of the University of Utah's Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

Housing market collapsing


Oxford Analytica 7/10 (independent strategic-consulting firm drawing on a network of more than 1,000
scholar experts, Housing Market Bottoms Out Slowly, http://www.forbes.com/2009/07/09/mortgages-bankersinterest-business-oxford-prices.html, 7/10/09, AD: 7/11/09) JC
The Obama administration may need to redouble its efforts at supporting the U.S. housing market. The
Mortgage Bankers Association purchase applications index rose to 285.6 in May, up from 267.7 the previous month,
the MBA reported Wednesday. After a vicious plunge since late 2006, when the housing-market bubble reached
its apex, the rate at which prices are falling is slowing. However, for several key reasons, price declines are
unlikely to cease until mid-2010. Unprecedented U.S. bust. From 2000 to 2006, fueled by very low interest
rates and a substantial loosening of mortgage-lending standards, average U.S. housing prices increased by
approximately 80%. Since the housing-market bubble burst in September 2006, prices have declined by
approximately 32%, a slide without precedent in the post-war period. This decline has returned home prices to the
levels prevailing in 2003, and has destroyed an estimated $6 trillion in household wealth. Falling prices
undermined the home building industry. Over the past three years, housing starts have declined by 75% to
the present annualized level of around 500,000 units. The current rate of starts is the lowest level in 50 years and is
substantially below the long term estimated trend rate of 1.3 million units per year of underlying demand for new
home construction. In time, this should help run down the present excess stock of U.S. housing inventories.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2009

11

Scholars
Timber DA

Deforestation Down
The deforestation rate has been cut in half, represents a downward trend
Environmental News Service 5 (Deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon Cut by Half http://www.ensnewswire.com/ens/aug2005/2005-08-29-03.asp)

Over the last 11 months there has been a 50 percent drop in deforestation in the Amazon region,
according to satellite data released Friday by the Brazilian Environment Ministry. From August 2003 to July 2004, a total
of 18,724 square kilometers were logged in the region. From August 2004 to June 2005, the area
destroyed was 9,106 square kilometers, explained Environment Minister Marina Silva at a news conference in the capital .
The new figures are based on images from the Brazilian space agency INPE , the first results of an observation
project called STOP (Detection of Deforestation in Real Time), conducted with the support of the Institute for the Environment and
Renewable Natural Resources (Ibama) and the Environment Ministry. The purpose of STOP is to supply to the government and the
public with information about new areas of deforestation in Amazonia. "STOP underestimates the areas cleared, utilizing sensors of
smaller spatial resolution with high frequency of observation to reduce the limitations of cloud cover," explains Gilberto Cmara,
general coordinator of INPE's Land Observation division. Silva told reporters that two sensors aboard different satellites,
each monitoring deforestation, both show a downward deforestation trend. The MODIS, aboard Landsat, has
spatial resolution of 250 meters and covers Brazil every three to five days. The WFI, carried on the CBERS-2 satellite, presents a spatial
resolution of 260 meters and covers Brazil every five days.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2009

12

Scholars
Timber DA

***Links***

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2009

13

Scholars
Timber DA

Link Income = Timber


Consumer income and demand determines timber in the US
European Forest Institute 7 (Stumpage and Timber Demand, http://foper.unu.edu/course/?page_id=171,
AD: 7-9-9) BL
The demand for wood end products determines the location of the demand curve for timber. So
changes in the end product demand also imply shifts in timber demand (other things being equal). Figure
E14 illustrates such a shift in demand for timber as a result of an increase in the end product demand
caused (i.e., income rise, population growth or changed consumer preferences (see also FOR8). As a result
of this shift, the market price for timber increases from P0 to P1 and cuttings increased from Q0 to Q1.
These changes also imply an increase in gross stumpage earnings to forest owners (from P0Q0 to P1Q1).
The consumer demand for wood end products is the driving force that creates the demand for timber
and has a crucial impact on stumpage earnings and consequently, also on the profitability of timber
production.

Timber demand is going to decreaseincreased income changes that.


CISEH 3 (Center for Invasive Species and Ecosystem Health, Run by the University of Georgia, Timber
Demand, http://www.bugwood.org/intensive/timber_demand.html, AD: 7-9-9) BL
# The demand for forest products is largely determined by growth in U.S. population, income, and
aggregated economic activity as indicated by Gross National Product (GNP) and total personal income.
# In broad terms, future projections for timber demand show rising trends in the consumption of forest
products with a much more cyclical outlook for timber growth and inventories. # Over the period 1990 to
2040, softwood harvests from U.S. forests should rise by 35 percent. Hardwood harvests should rise by more
than 51 percent. This level of consumption requires annual sawtimber stumpage real price growth in the
order of 1-2 percent above general inflation.# With reduced softwood stumpage supply during the 1990 to
2010 period, demand will adjust downward following higher prices. Until 2010 there is expected to be
rising consumption, less rapid growth in timber inventories, and increasing real prices for stumpage and
products. After 2010 there are expected declining growth in rates of consumption and increasing
inventories in an amount to stabilize prices until the end of the projection period in 2040.

Income is the single biggest factor when determining wood demand


Research and Markets 5 (World Outlook for Industrial, Commercial, and Shelving Particleboard Made from
Wood Products Produced at the Same Location 2006-2011) LE
In order to estimate the latent demand for industrial, commercial, and shelving particleboard made from
wood products produced at the same location on a worldwide basis, I used a multi-stage approach.
Before applying the approach, one needs a basic theory from which such estimates are created. In this case, I
heavily rely on the use of certain basic economic assumptions. In particular, there is an assumption governing
the shape and type of aggregate latent demand functions. Latent demand functions relate the income of a
country, city, state, household, or individual to realized consumption. Latent demand (often realized as
consumption when an industry is efficient), at any level of the value chain, takes place if an equilibrium in
realized. For firms to serve a market, they must perceive a latent demand and be able to serve that demand at
a minimal return. The single most important variable determining consumption, assuming latent demand
exists, is income (or other financial resources at higher levels of the value chain). Other factors that can pivot
or shape demand curves include external or exogenous shocks (i.e., business cycles), and or changes in utility
for the product in question.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2009

14

Scholars
Timber DA

Link Income = Timber


Disposable income is directly related to wood product demand
Skog 98 (Kenneth, Wood Fiber Supply and Demand, US Forest Service, 1998,
http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/5923) LE
Assessment, this paper outlines trends and gives an outlook for demand and trade for timber and fiber
products, changes in technology, and wood fiber resource supply. We use the term wood fiber to include
timber for solid wood products, pulp and paper products, and recycled paper for paper products. Demand for
solid wood products and paper and paperboard products will be driven by growth in population, gross
domestic product (GDP), and personal disposable income (PDI). The growth rate of these indicators is
sustained but slowing. Population, GDP, and PDI are projected to grow about 1 percent, 2.7 percent, and 2.5
percent per year, respectively, through 2005. Growth will be slower through 2050. Population growth will be
0.5 percent by 2050, and GDP and PDI will average 1.9 percent growth per year.

Demand for timber depends on disposable income


Sullivan 8 (David, The Forest Fund, Sustainable investing in timberland, March 2008,
http://www.arvopaperi.fi/multimedia/archive/00031/David_Sullivan_31133a.pdf) LE
Timber demand is driven by population growth and disposable income. Excess demand for natural
resources will soon hit the timber industry. Timber is not affected by green compliance cost like other
industries. Reforestation is a priority for global warming. New plantations generate positive emissions
credits.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2009

15

Scholars
Timber DA

Link Income = Housing


Increase in income leads to demand for new housing
Angel 0 (Shlomo, Housing Policy Matters, P312, 2000, http://books.google.com/books?
id=nq_JqHcR12AC&pg=PA312&lpg=PA312&dq=income+increase+new+housing+demand&source=bl&ots=LeN
GkbiQIE&sig=LCKWaS1aYnM9Ix2ZIS3a3zQlNc&hl=en&ei=S9RYSp75KpCwsgOmjpieCQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=2)
LE
The demand model for housing stock growth, shown in the second row of Table 22.3, had R-squared
values of .24 and .25 respectively, implying that they explain only one-quarter of the variation in demand and
supply of housing production in the sample. The demand for housing production was found to increase
modestly, rather than decrease, with increased income. The income elasticity of demand for new housing
production was .13. This may have occurred because, in higher income countries with smaller household
sizes, relatively more unites are produced to accommodate 1,000 people than in lower-income countries with
larger household sizes.

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Timber DA

Link Housing = Timber


Increase housing demand leads to an increase in demand for timber
Nix 9 (Steve, What Affects the demand for lumber?, The timber market explained, Feb 2009- last date cited,
http://forestry.about.com/cs/forestindustry1/a/market_interv_2.htm) LE
Housing starts make the highest impact on lumber demand. The number of housing permits issued can
predict which way housing starts are headed. Softwood prices will be the first to be effected because of
its structural use in home building. Hardwood prices lag by another 6 months. This is due to hardwood
being used in flooring, molding, trim, and furniture - the latter stages of new home completions and
furnishing. There is an industrial demand as well. Industry uses pallets. Railroads use ties, bridge timbers,
and decking. Most industrial stock is produced at a price less than top stumpage value but is higher than chip
and pulpwood prices.

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***Internal Links***

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Timber DA

Timber Demand = Deforestation


Illegal logging and high US demand fuel deforestation around the world
I.L.I. 6 (Illegal Logging Info, America driving deforestation, 6-15-6, http://www.illegallogging.info/item_single.php?item=news&item_id=1525&approach_id=) LE
The US is the world's biggest importer of wood in the world. According to EIA, US demand drives both illegal
logging in developing countries and illegal timber trade because of US failure to ban imports of illegal wood.
The administration has failed to act despite an agreement by the G8 nations in July 2005 to prohibit illegal timber
imports. The US has also failed to press Singapore to take action against illegal timber trade. 'Unfortunately, US
free trade pacts are speeding the destruction of Asian and Latin American forests by failing to prohibit imports
of illegal timber,' said Alexander von Bismarck, Campaigns Director for EIA's Washington, DC office. 'The US
government must enact a ban on illegal timber imports if it is interested in the health of the global
environment and the US timber industry.'

The United States fuels illegal logging and deforestation


Lash 9 (Jonathon, When a tree falls illegally in the forest, World Resources Institute, 1-9-9,
http://www.wri.org/stories/2009/01/when-tree-falls-illegally-forest) LE
As the worlds largest importer of wood products, the U.S. is a significant player in the trade of wood
products. According to the Environmental Investigation Agency, 17% of global forest product exports
are destined for the U.S. market20% if furniture is also includedworth almost $60 billion in 2006.
Research indicates that perhaps 10% of these imports are at high risk of illegal origin.

Population growth and timber demand lead to deforestation Amazon proves


Meyerson 4 (Frederick, Visiting Scholar at the Population Reference Bureau and is currently, Population Growth
and Deforestation: A Critical and Complex Relationship,
http://www.prb.org/Articles/2004/PopulationGrowthandDeforestationACriticalandComplexRelationship.aspx, June
2004, AD: 7/11/09) JC
(June 2004) During the last two decades, agricultural expansion, logging, development, and other human
activities caused the deforestation of more than 120,000 square kilometers each year. In contrast, an area only
one-tenth that size was regained due to reforestation efforts and natural re-growth.1 This is the continuation of
an historical process that has left the world with less than half of its original forests. While population growth and
density are unquestionably related to forest cover trends, there is no simple way to describe or predict that
association. Not surprisingly, the relationship is as complex as the regional and cultural variations in human societies
and the changes in those societies over time. Nonetheless, important patterns are beginning to develop from the
many studies that have been undertaken and the evolving debate around them. An overview of studies
conducted in the 1980s and 1990s reveals a strong relationship between population growth and deforestation in
Central America, East and West Africa, and South Asia, but a much less clear association in Amazonia (South
America) and Central Africa.2 In a number of more developed countries, such as the United States, China and
Russia, forest cover has been recovering for some time after extensive earlier deforestation.3 Emerging Trends From
the deforestation studies to date, a few generalizations can be made. At extremely low population densities (less
than one to two persons per square kilometer), it is possible to maintain large amounts of forest intact in areas
where the population can be sustained primarily through the harvesting of non-timber forest products rather than by
agriculture.4 However, even in sparsely inhabited areas, external forces such as demand for timber or cattle in

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Timber DA
other parts of the country or world can lead to deforestation that is not closely related to local population
growth. This has been the case in parts of the Brazilian Amazon.5

Timber Demand = Deforestation


Forest survival on the brink now increased demand destroys the forests
Worldwatch Institute 98 (Environmental Sustainability Advocates, Accelerating Demand for Land Wood, and
Paper Pushing World's Forests to the Brink, http://www.worldwatch.org/node/1620, 4/4/98, AD: 7/11/09) JC
ACCELERATING DEMAND FOR LAND WOOD, AND PAPER PUSHING WORI.D'S FORESTS TO THE
BRINK Report Calls for Rapid Scaling Up of Efforts to P reserve Health of Forests and Provide Economic Benefits The dramatically
increasing demand for paper and other wood products, combined with government corruption, illegal logging, and industrial
burning of thousands of hectares for quick profit, are turning local forest destruction into a global catastrophe , reports a new study
from the Worldwatch Institute. "Half the forests that once covered the earth pre gone, and deforestation has been
accelerating in the last 30 years," says Janet Abramovitz, author of Taking a Stand: Cultivating a New Relationship With the World's Forests.
"When forests disappear, we lose more than just timber," says Abramovitz, pointing to the role of forests in climate regulation, erosion and flood control,
habitat and watershed protection, and supplying non-wood forest products. Intact forests provide these and other significant economic benefits on an ongoing basis. International trade in non-wood forest products alone. is worth over $11 billion a year, not counting the even greater local value of these
products and the millions of jobs created. As forests have been shrinking, the pressures on them have grown more intense.

In the last 35 years, wood consumption has doubled, and paper use has more than tripled. Each year at least another 16 million
hectares of natural forest are razed-an area the size of Washington State. 'In the face of these mounting pressures, we need to scale up efforts that are
already underway to preserve the health of forests and provide economic benefits--efforts such as eliminating waste in production and consumption,
expanding recycling, reforming forest-destroying subsidies, and restoring the carbon storage role of forests under the Climate Change Convention." Recent
forest fires in Indonesia and Brazil illustrate the global impact of local forest loss and the potent combination of forces fueling their destruction. The world's
forests now lose more carbon to the atmosphere than they absorb-a recent shift. In fact, up to one quarter of all the carbon added to the atmosphere by
human activities now comes from cutting and burning forests. The Indonesian forest fires in 1997 pumped more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere in a
few months than all of Europe's industrial activity did in a year. -MORE Governments worldwide actively encourage forest exploitation and conversion.
"Subsidies for below-cost logging, processing, road building, and infrastructure are so large that governments are essentially paying private interests to take
the timber and convert the land to other uses," says Abramovitz. "Taxpayers don't even know they're footing the bill for these revenue-losers." Indonesia's
give-away timber concessions cost the government $2.5 billion in lost revenues in 1990 alone. In the United States, timber sales from

national forests lost over $1 billion from 1992 to 1994. In British Columbia, liquidation of all old growth forest is explicit government
policy. Corruption is another major contributor to forest destruction. In Indonesia, President Suharto diverted money from the nation's reforestation' fund to
build a paper factory for his personal friend and "timber king" Bob Hasan (recently appointed Minister of Industry and Trade). A recent audit by the
International Monetary Fund found no money in the fund to fight the devastating fires because the money had been diverted to prop up the president's son!
s failing car company. In Cambodia, the prime ministers and. military, illegally control the forests and timber trade. Profits bypass the treasury and fund
their factions in the civil war. Since 1960, legal trade in forest products has tripled $142 billion in 1995, but substantial amounts of illegal trade go
unreported. Brazil, now the world's fourth largest timber producer, estimates that 80 percent of logging in the Amazon is illegal. In Russia, it is estimated
that as many as 12 million hectares are illegally logged each year, compared to only 2 million hectares of legal logging by official estimates. Rising

demand for forest products fuels the booming trade, with the developed world leading the way. The less than
one-fifth of the worlds population who live in Europe, the U.S., and Japan, consume over one-half of the world's timber, and
more than two-thirds of its paper. Japan consumes almost as much paper as China, a country with nearly ten times as many people. In the next fifteen years,
global demand for paper is expected to grow by half again. Prior to the economic crisis, demand in Asia had been growing faster than anywhere else:
consumption of wood -panels, like plywood, was growing at almost six percent a year-more than three times the world average-and paper consumption at
over twice the world average.

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Timber DA

***Impacts***

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Timber DA

Deforestation Bio-D/Extinction
Deforestation causes biodiversity loss and extinction
Rochen and Stock 98 (Andy Rochen and Jocelyn Stock are undergraduate researchers at the University of Michigan. Deforestation
and Society http://www.umich.edu/~gs265/society/deforestation.htm)

To understand why deforestation is such a pressing and urgent issue, forests must first be given credit for
what they bring to global ecosystems and the quality of life that all species maintain. Tropical Rainforests
presently give a place to call home for 50% - 90% of all organisms, 90% of our relatives, the primates, and
50 million creatures that can live no place but the rich rainforests (World Rainforest Movement 16). Not only
are other species at risk, but the human race also benefits from what the trees give. From something as minor as
the spices that indulge food to life giving medicines, the rainforests amplify and save lives. According to the World
Rainforest Movement, 25% of medicines come from the forests (28). This is a number that does not do
justice to all the cures that have yet to be discovered or that have been destroyed. The forests give life, not
only to other species, but they help to prolong the human race. The forests have global implications not just on
life but on the quality of it. Trees improve the quality of the air that species breath by trapping carbon and other particles
produced by pollution. Trees determine rainfall and replenish the atmosphere. As more water gets put back in the
atmosphere, clouds form and provide another way to block out the suns heat. Trees are what cool and regulates the earths
climate in conjunction with other such valuable services as preventing erosion, landslides, and making the most infertile soil
rich with life. Mother earth has given much responsibility to trees .

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Timber DA

Deforestation Extinction/Biod Loss


Deforestation causes biodiversity loss and extinction
Abiola 97 (Jayeola Omotola Abiola is an Undergraduate, Department of Forestry and Wildlife Management, College of Environmental
Resources Management, University of Agriculture, P.M.B. 2240, AbeoLuta, Ogun State, Nigeria. FORESTRY FOR SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT: TOWARD THE 21st CENTURY http://www.fao.org/forestry/docrep/wfcxi/publi/V8/Ee/V8E_E1.HTM)
Forest degradation as a result of deforestation ignites a lot of problems for human existence and the
problem if unchecked can cause further ecological problems leading to human extinction. Forest clearing due
to logging, land degradation resulting from shifting cultivation social and economic development, range10 depletion as a result of
overgrazing, project execution without environmental impact assessment (EIA) leads to climatic changes, global warming,

loss of biological diversity pollution and desertification. The tropical forest ecosystem which has been
described as home to more than half the earth's species (Spore 59 1995) has been disappearing at the rate of tens of
thousands of square kilometers per year. Over this period, tropical deforestation rate increased by more than 50 percent and the world
lost 10% of its tropical forest. Loss of biological diversity is another major area of` concern in forestry for
sustainable development. Countless plants and animals have been driven into extinction through
deforestation, thus contributing to the build up of green house gases. Biodiversity is a comprehensive word for the
degree of nature variety including both the number and frequency of ecosystems, species and genes in a given assemblage (Mc Neely
1988). Biological diversity is a word which embraces both species richness and genetic diversity of an

ecosystem, both of which are threatened. Throughout the world, species extinction and a reduction in
genetic variability is taking place at rates never before witnessed, especially in the tropical forests
which are often thought of as being the richest area. These losses can be attributed to various factors including
pollution, physical disturbance of the forest, exploitation for food and other uses, deliberate extirpation, habitat loss and fragmentation .

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Timber DA

Deforestation Poverty
Deforestation causes poverty
Jakarta Post 7 (Avoiding deforestation will help eradicate poverty http://westpapuafree.wordpress.com/2007/12/08/avoidingdeforestation-will-help-eradicate-poverty/)
Many understand that deforestation

contributes a lot to global warming, but few are aware that forest
plundering will lead to poverty. On the sidelines of the UN climate change conference in Bali, Papuas
Governor Barnabas Suebu, one of Times Hero of the Environment awardees, talked to The Jakarta Post contributor I.
Christianto about his efforts to combat poverty through the protection of 31-million hectares of forest remaining
in the province. Question: You often mention Papuas forests are rich but the people are poor. What are you trying to say? Answer:
Papua is impoverished. The state of peoples health, their nutrition, education, housing and clean water,
to name a few, is still very poor. It will worsen if the forest is destroyed. Therefore we are trying to protect
our forest and stop deforestation. There must be a funding mechanism from the international community, an issue that we have
discussed with some parties like Greenpeace. The fund must go to the people to improve their welfare. No single tree can be felled. The
benefit of forest exploitation for the local government and people is trivial, but the impact is devastating,
including the loss of rich biodiversity inside the forest. Theres no benefit at all to plunder the forest, as it
is the people who are then made to suffer. Logging activities, for example, have impoverished the people.
A timber log is valued at US$10, but the price can climb to more than $10,000 after being processed into wooden goods. Thats why we
have introduced a policy aimed at benefiting both the government and people.

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Timber DA

Deforestation = Warming
Deforestation causes global warming
Christopher Matthews, September 4 2006, Deforestation Causes Global Warming, Information officer with
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, (http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news /2006 /10003
85/index.html)
Most people assume that global warming is caused by burning oil and gas. But in fact between 25 and 30
percent of the greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere each year 1.6 billion tonnes is caused
by deforestation. About 200 experts, mostly from developing countries, met in Rome last week to address
this issue in a workshop organized by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) and hosted by FAO. We are working to solve two of the key environmental issues
deforestation and global warming at the same time, said FAO Senior Forestry Officer Dieter Schoene.
Trees are 50 percent carbon. When they are felled or burned, the C02 they store escapes back into the
air. According to FAO figures, some 13 million ha of forests worldwide are lost every year, almost
entirely in the tropics. Deforestation remains high in Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia. Delegates
of the 46 developing countries present at the Rome workshop signalled their readiness to act on
deforestation, 80 percent of which is due to increased farmland to feed growing populations. Part of the
solution is to increase agricultural productivity so that there is less demand to convert forests into farmland.
But they also stressed that they needed financial help from the developed world to do the job. A major flow
of capital from north to south under new instruments still waiting to be negotiated -- would be required to
help the developing nations conserve their forests.

Majority of carbon emissions come from deforestation


Daniel Howden, May 14 2007, Deforestation: The Hidden Cause Of Global Warming, deputy foreign editor of
The Independent, (http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/deforestation-the-hidden-cause-ofglobal-warming-448734.html)
Most people think of forests only in terms of the CO2 they absorb. The rainforests of the Amazon, the
Congo basin and Indonesia are thought of as the lungs of the planet. But the destruction of those forests
will in the next four years alone, in the words of Sir Nicholas Stern, pump more CO2 into the
atmosphere than every flight in the history of aviation to at least 2025. Indonesia became the thirdlargest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world last week. Following close behind is Brazil. Neither
nation has heavy industry on a comparable scale with the EU, India or Russia and yet they comfortably
outstrip all other countries, except the United States and China. What both countries do have in common
is tropical forest that is being cut and burned with staggering swiftness. Smoke stacks visible from space
climb into the sky above both countries, while satellite images capture similar destruction from the Congo
basin, across the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Central African Republic and the Republic of Congo.
According to the latest audited figures from 2003, two billion tons of CO2 enters the atmosphere every
year from deforestation. That destruction amounts to 50 million acres - or an area the size of England,
Wales and Scotland felled annually. The remaining standing forest is calculated to contain 1,000 billion tons
of carbon, or double what is already in the atmosphere. As the GCP's report concludes: "If we lose forests,
we lose the fight against climate change."

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Timber DA

***A2 Brazil***

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Timber DA

A2 Brazil Non-unique
Brazil is in a recession now
Clendenning 9 (Alan, Brazil Slips into a Recession, Charleston Daily Mail, 6-9-9,
http://www.dailymail.com/ap/ApBusiness/200906090347) LE
Latin America's largest economy slumped into a technical recession in the first quarter as the global
economic crisis slashed demand for its exports and slowed domestic consumption, Brazil's government
statistics agency said Tuesday. The economy shrank 0.8 percent in the January-March period compared
to the fourth quarter of 2008, when it registered a 3.6 percent decline. That pushed Brazil into a
technical recession, defined as two straight quarters of negative growth. In annual terms, Brazil's economy
shrank 1.8 percent from the first quarter of 2008.

The economy is affected by slowing demand due to the global recession - its struggling now
Alves 9 (Fabio, Brazils Real Declines For a Second Week on Economic Outlook, 7-10-9,
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=a_1AA12iB1rU) LE
Brazils real slumped for a second week on concern that a faltering global economic recovery may fail
to revive demand for oil, metals and other commodities the country exports. The real lost 2.1 percent
since July 3, paring its gain to 16 percent this year, the best performer among the 16 most- traded currencies
tracked by Bloomberg. The real gained 0.7 percent today to 1.9958 per U.S. dollar at 5:09 p.m. New York
time, from 2.0092 yesterday. Theres still uncertainty about the global economic recovery and demand
for commodities, Leonardo Breder, a fixed- income manager at Nobel Asset Management, said in a
telephone interview from Rio de Janeiro. Continued weakness in commodities prices will weigh on the
real. Commodities account for about two-thirds of Brazils exports. The S&P GSCI spot index of 24
commodities has lost 7.2 percent this week. Oil dropped 1.1 percent to $59.72 a barrel. The global economy
will shrink 1.4 percent this year before expanding 2.5 percent in 2010, the International Monetary Fund said
July 8. The yield on Brazils benchmark zero-coupon bonds due January 2010 fell two basis points, or
0.02 percentage point, to 8.75 percent. It dropped 10 basis points this week. In the overnight interestrates futures market, the yield on contracts due January 2010 declined one basis point to 8.68 percent today.

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Timber DA

A2 Brazil No Link
Other industries like minerals and agriculture are key recession proves
Clendenning 9 (Alan, Brazil Slips into a Recession, Charleston Daily Mail, 6-9-9,
http://www.dailymail.com/ap/ApBusiness/200906090347) LE
Soaring commodity prices had helped Brazil rack up years of unprecedented growth. But that
expansion ended abruptly in October as the global economic crisis slashed demand for key exports
including iron ore, steel and agricultural products. "After showing strong resilience, the economy finally
succumbed to the deteriorating global conditions," with credit, output and exports declining, Moody's.com
Latin America director Alfredo Coutino said Tuesday in a note to investors. In the first quarter, industry
contracted by 9.3 percent from the year-ago period as production of machinery, metals, cars and
clothes fell, the government said. Farm output fell 1.6 percent, while exports dropped 15.2 percent and
imports 16 percent. But emergency credit lines and stimulus spending may have averted a bigger contraction,
and Brazil now shows signs of a quicker recovery than other emerging markets, analysts said.

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Timber DA

***Aff Answers***

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Timber DA

***Non-Uniques***

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Timber DA

Timber Demand Up
Chinese demand is going to skyrocket.
Clarke 3 (James, Media Liaison & Outreach Manage for Center for International Forestry Research, China's
timber imports raises concerns, CIFOR,
http://www.cifor.cgiar.org/Publications/Corporate/NewsOnline/NewsOnline35/china_timber.htm, AD: 7-10-9) BL
China's import of round wood in 2002 totaled 16 million cubic meters, some 16 times more than the
figure for 1997. It is estimated this figure will reach 100 million cubic meters by 2010, accounting for
half of the total annual demand in the country. Research undertaken by CIFOR and Forest Trends shows that
the value of China's total timber, pulp and paper imports soared 75% to $11.2 billion in 2002 from $6.4
billion in 1997. Such a high demand has serious implications for global forestry conservation. "You
have a country that is growing at eight to nine percent, where its own domestic supply of forest
products is decreasing, so it has created a huge demand for forest products from the region," says
Kaimowitz, CIFOR's Director General. "The growth and changes in China will have a strong impact on
livelihoods, jobs and people transforming forest products. We will also see considerable impact on local and
neighbouring economies, and on the environment.

Timber demand increasing now


Fordaq 7/7 (Worlds leading wood professionals market, West African markets maintain stability,
http://www.fordaq.com/fordaq/news/Log_Sawnwood_Prices_20316.html, 7/7/09, AD: 7/11/09) JC
Producers, on the other hand, have tailored production to maintain stability and cater for the current demand.
They are not speculating if or when European buyers will return to the market. Some producers reported as still
having some quite large overlying stocks of certain species. One positive trend in the market is the increasing
demand for certified timber. The Netherlands and the UK have taken the lead in demanding certified timber
and the UK government in particular is becoming more active in regulating the use of certified timber in
central and local government projects. Some African producers have engaged in the certification process and are
able to supply fully certified timbers. Such producers are in the minority, however, as most mills have not seen
enough demand for certified timber to push them to undertake certification initiatives.

Wood demand increasing now China and India prove


Ensor 7/9 (Blair, The Marlborough Express, Loggers welcome boom as demand skyrockets,
http://www.stuff.co.nz/marlborough-express/news/rural/2575997/Loggers-welcome-boom-as-demand-skyrockets,
7/9/09, AD: 7/11/09) JC
Demand for Marlborough forestry logs is booming. Merrill and Ring NZ forest manager Murray Turbitt said a low
exchange rate and lower shipping costs had contributed to some of the best demand for logs he had seen in the
region. Merrill and Ring NZ is a United States-owned forestry management company that also owns forestry in
Marlborough and employs four Marlborough logging contractors. Mr Turbitt said demand on the domestic and
export market, especially from China and India, had been very strong. This was positive news for the
industry, which late last year faced "grim" levels of demand, he said. Sawmills took extended breaks because of a
lack of orders, and logging contractors were forced to put staff on four-day weeks. Blenheim-based logging
contractor Andy Gale said his gang of eight loggers was busy and back to five-day working weeks. "It's definitely
looking more positive."

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Timber DA

Housing Demand Up
Housing demand rebounding now
Globe and Mail 7/10 (Canadian news service,The good, the bad, the less bad, and the ugly,
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/the-good-the-bad-the-less-bad-and-the-ugly/article1208239/,
7/10/09, AD: 7/11/09) JC
Real estate: The real estate market, which slumped but never crashed as the U.S. market did, has been steadily
rebounding, though some economists wonder if this may have been a spring fling built on pent-up demand
that will soften. Still, construction of new homes surged in June by a surprising 8 per cent, suggesting,
economists say, that, while still depressed from year-earlier levels, the housing market has at least turned the
corner. Building permits, meanwhile, a component that can be volatile and skewed by major projects, surged 14.8
per cent in May, topping the $5-billion mark for the first time since last October, largely on a strong showing in
Ontario condo projects and non-residential projects in Alberta and Ontario. Notable was that in the residential sector,
permits rose for the third consecutive month.

Housing demand boosted now


McKim 7/11 (Jenifer, Globe staff, Mass. to get $110m for housing,
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2009/07/11/mass_to_get_110m_for_housing/, 7/11/09, AD: 7/11/09) JC
Massachusetts will receive $110 million in federal stimulus money to build nearly 1,100 affordable apartments
during the next two years, jump-starting about 25 developments statewide that have been stalled because of
the down economy. State officials yesterday said the money, from two awards under the American Recovery and
Reinvestment Act created by Congress in February, should add at least 1,400 construction jobs at a time when
Massachusetts unemployment rate has soared above 8 percent. Investments from this program will boost our
regional economy as it gets important construction projects back on line, puts people back to work, and creates new
housing opportunities for hard-working families all across the Commonwealth, Governor Deval Patrick said in
announcing the funding. The construction of 1,100 housing units is significant during a time of increasing
homelessness and rising unemployment, said Aaron Gornstein, executive director of the Citizens Housing and
Planning Association, a nonprofit that promotes affordable housing. Housing projects have come to a virtual
standstill during the recession. So far this year, fewer than 3,000 housing units of any kind have received
construction permits. While there are about 243,000 units of subsidized housing in Massachusetts, according to state
housing data, many more are needed. Its going to be a big boost for working families in need of affordable
apartments, said Gornstein

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Timber DA

Deforestation Up
Despite decreased deforestation, rates are rising and forests are still at risk
WWF 7 (The WWF is the largest multinational conservation organization in the world. Amazon Deforestation Rates Decreasing,
Rainforests Still Threatened http://www.worldwildlife.org/who/media/press/2007/WWFPresitem6285.html)

New data from the government of Brazil shows that deforestation rates for the Brazilian Amazon from
August 2006 to July 2007 have fallen for the third consecutive year - and are the lowest registered for the region since 1991.
While these rates have reached historic lows, deforestation in the Amazon still proceeded at an
alarming speed. During the government's survey period more than 2.7 million acres disappeared equaling about four football fields of rainforest per minute. There are also indications that
deforestation rates may be on the increase since the end of the reporting period.

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***Links Answers***

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A2 Demand = Deforestation
Developing nations are expanding their forests
National Geographic News, November 13 2006, Worlds Forests Rebounding , Study Suggests,
(http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/11/061113-forests.html)
This encouraging picture of global forest growth comes from an international research team that
studied data from a 2005 forest-resources assessment by the United Nations Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO). The team advocates "a more sophisticated approach" to measuring forest cover. This
approach takes into account tree density as well as overall tree cover to reveal a country's total forest
resources, the team says. In Japan, for instance, tree cover is shown to be virtually unchanged since World War II, but tree density has
risen, producing an average annual 1.6 percent increase in forest biomass. Lead author Pekka Kauppi of the University of Helsinki,
Finland, admits that the study does not distinguish between planted, homogenous tree stands and biologically richer old-growth forests.
However, he says, much of the recorded increase involves both natural regeneration and the effects of

reforestation programs, particularly in developing nations. The study notes, for example, that tropical
forest in El Salvador expanded more than 20 percent between 1992 and 2001. Reforestation efforts in
China have contributed to a 116-million-acre (47-million-hectare) increase in forest area since the 1970s,
the study adds. Increased human migration from rural to urban areas and higher agricultural yields
may also have aided regeneration, the authors say. Similar factors may have helped in India, where
forest cover was found to have increased since 1990. The team says forest trends in these and other
developing countries may be mirroring those seen in the past in industrialized Western nations. In the
U.S., for instance, forests in Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Illinois have expanded by half since the 19th century. The authors
say factors behind reforestation in North America and Europe range from increased conservation and farming productivity to a decline in
newsprint demand following the rise of electronic media. Whether the transition from deforestation to forest expansion becomes a truly
global phenomenon will depend largely on Brazil and Indonesia, where huge areas of tropical forest are still being cleared, Kauppi says.
Indonesia has recorded a 6 percent annual loss in forest biomass between 1990 and 2005. "But if China and India can do it,

why not Brazil and Indonesia?" Kauppi said.

Indigenous people are preventing deforestation


National Geographic News, February 28 2006, Indigenous Lands Help Protect Amazon Forests, Study
Finds (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/02/0228_060228_amazon.html)
Reserve areas established for Indian peoples in Brazil (map) are as effective as uninhabited nature
parks in preventing burning and clear-cutting, the study finds. An international team of researchers tested
a longstanding assumption: that land in uninhabited parks is better protected than that in reserves with human
populations. The scientists used satellite data taken from 1997 to 2000 to compare rates of fire and
deforestation inside and outside the boundaries of different reserve types. Only protected areas larger than
25,000 acres (10,100 hectares) were included in the analysis. In the February issue of the journal
Conservation Biology, the researchers report that reserves of all types are providing significant Amazon
forest protection, but tribal lands may be especially important to preventing region-wide deforestation.
"Many indigenous groups are very well organized, and they are also willing to use force to defend their
lands," said Daniel Nepstad of the Woods Hole Research Center in Falmouth, Massachusetts, who led the
study.

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No Link Alt Cause


Chinese demand fuels deforestation US is irrelevant
Musa 7 (Tansa, 6-11-7, Chinese demand fuels timber,
http://www.reuters.com/article/scienceNews/idUSSP30942220070611) LE
"Both illegal and authorized exploiters have staged a hold-up on the forest."
From central Africa to the Amazon basin and Indonesia's islands, the world's great forests are being lost at an
annual rate of at least 13 million hectares (32 million acres) -- an area the size of Greece or Nicaragua. The
timber business is worth billions of dollars annually, and experts say few industries that size are as murky as
the black market in wood. Evidence of rampant deforestation around the globe points in one direction:
booming demand in China, where economic growth is fuelling a timber feeding frenzy. In just the past
decade, China has grown from importing wood products for domestic use to become the world's
leading exporter of furniture, plywood and flooring. Chinese firms might not be chopping down the
trees themselves, but their insatiable appetite is driving up prices, spurring loggers to open more tracks
like those torn through Ngambe-Tikar and drawing huge global investment to the companies. COLONIAL
RELICS In Mande village on the fringe of the Cameroon jungle, Pierre, a hunter dressed in tattered shorts
and T-shirt, does not know that more than half his country's original forest cover has been cut down in his
lifetime. But he knows the local eco-system has been ravaged. Once upon a time, wild animals would
sometimes stroll right into his compound. "These days you don't see any. They don't fall into our traps
anymore. You need to go very far, deep in the forest to see or catch one," he tells Reuters.

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***Impact Answers***

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Warming I/L Turn


Despite increases in CO2, deforestation causes global cooling
Bala et al. 7 (G. Bala, K. Caldeira, M. Wickett, T. J. Phillips, D. B. Lobell, C. Delire, and A. Mirin, Combined climate and carbon-cycle
effects of large-scale deforestation Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?
artid=1871823)
Atmospheric CO2 content is greater in the Global deforestation experiment by 381 ppmv because of both

the release of carbon stored in trees in the early 21st century and the loss of CO2 fertilization of
forested ecosystems seen in the Standard simulation (Fig. 1). Despite higher atmospheric CO2
concentrations, the global- and annual-mean temperature in the Global case is cooler by 0.3 K than the
Standard case. Thus, on a global-mean basis, the warming carbon-cycle effects of deforestation are
overwhelmed by the cooling biophysical effects. Relative to the Standard case, the atmospheric CO2 concentration is
higher by 299, 110, and 5 ppmv in the Tropical, Temperate, and Boreal cases. The global-mean temperature differences relative to the
Standard case in year 2100 in the Tropical, Temperate, and Boreal experiments are +0.7 K, 0.04 K, and 0.8 K, respectively (Fig. 1),
implying that the combined carbon-cycle and biophysical effects from tropical, temperate, and boreal deforestation are, respectively, net
warming, near-zero temperature change, and net cooling. These latitude-band experiments thus suggest that projects in the tropics
promoting afforestation are likely to slow down global warming, but such projects would offer only little to no climate benefits when
implemented in temperate regions and would be counterproductive, from a climate-perspective, at higher latitudes. The linear sum of the
area-weighted global-mean temperature change over all of the latitude-band experiments is 0.1 K in the year 2100. This value is close
to the corresponding 0.3 K temperature change of the Global deforestation simulation, suggesting a near-linear behavior of the largescale climate system despite the many nonlinear processes represented by the INCCA model. The linear sum is slightly larger because,
in the latitude-band experiments, our dynamic vegetation model allows the forests to expand in the regions that are not deforested (23,
26), and forests have lower albedo and absorb more solar radiation than grasses. The presence of trees in the latitude-band deforestation
experiments and the consequent higher CO2 fertilization causes the linear sum of CO2 changes from the Tropical, Temperate, and
Boreal experiments to be lower than that of the Global case by 67 ppmv in year 2100. Because the linear sum of the temperature
response from latitude-band experiments is approximately equal to that of the Global case (Fig. 1), we focus our analysis on our globalscale deforestation simulation for brevity. The removal of forests in the Global case results in an atmospheric CO2 concentration at year
2100 that is 381 ppmv greater than in the Standard simulation (1,113 vs. 732 ppmv; Fig. 1). In the Standard A2 scenario, 1,790 PgC
carbon is emitted to the atmosphere over the 21st century (Fig. 2). By year 2100, the terrestrial biosphere in the Global deforestation
experiment has 972 Pg less carbon than in the Standard case. Approximately 82% (799 PgC) of this carbon resides in the atmosphere,
with the oceans taking up the remaining 18% (173 PgC). The ocean uptake increases in the Global case (444 vs. 271 PgC in Standard)
because the higher atmospheric CO2 concentration drives an increased flux of carbon into the oceans.

Deforestation causes net global cooling


Bala et al. 7 (G. Bala, K. Caldeira, M. Wickett, T. J. Phillips, D. B. Lobell, C. Delire, and A. Mirin, Combined climate and carbon-cycle
effects of large-scale deforestation Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?
artid=1871823)

The prevention of deforestation and promotion of afforestation have often been cited as strategies to
slow global warming. Deforestation releases CO2 to the atmosphere, which exerts a warming influence on Earth's climate.
However, biophysical effects of deforestation, which include changes in land surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and cloud
cover also affect climate. Here we present results from several large-scale deforestation experiments performed
with a three-dimensional coupled global carbon-cycle and climate model. These simulations were performed by using a fully threedimensional model representing physical and biogeochemical interactions among land, atmosphere, and ocean. We find that global-

scale deforestation has a net cooling influence on Earth's climate, because the warming carbon-cycle
effects of deforestation are overwhelmed by the net cooling associated with changes in albedo and
evapotranspiration. Latitude-specific deforestation experiments indicate that afforestation projects in the tropics would be clearly
beneficial in mitigating global-scale warming, but would be counterproductive if implemented at high latitudes and would offer only
marginal benefits in temperate regions. Although these results question the efficacy of mid- and high-latitude afforestation projects for
climate mitigation, forests remain environmentally valuable resources for many reasons unrelated to climate .

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AT Deforestation - Exaggerated
There is little scientific information about the extent of deforestation
Rothbard and Rucker 97 (David Rothbard and Craig Rucker, Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, The rainforest issue:
Myths and facts CFACT Briefing Paper #102. http://www.cfact.org/site/view_article.asp?idCategory=5&idarticle=214)
Why these claims are wrong: While some advocates like to make grand, sweeping statements about rainforest
loss and put in big numbers that make it sound catastrophic, Roger Sedjo and Marion Clawson, writing for
Resources for the Future, dug into the available evidence and said, "Information about the tropical moist forests is

relatively scant. What information we do have comes from anecdotal evidence -- provided by isolated
investigations at single times and places -- than from systematic studies conducted over large areas and
lengths of time... A hard look at the available data supports the view that some regions are
experiencing rapid deforestation. However, the view that this is a pervasive phenomenon on a global
level is questionable." (Rational Readings, Julian Simon, p. 745) So what does available evidence show? And where do
environmentalists begin to get their numbers? Well U.S. News and World Report (12/13/93) explains that while the figure of 40 million
acres per year "has taken on a life of its own," it is being "cited and recited without reference to its origins. Yet almost half the estimated
total comes from a very rough estimate made by a Brazilian scientist who used sensors on a U.S. weather satellite to count the number of
fires burning in the Amazon at one time in 1988 [at the height of government-subsidized deforestation]. He estimated the size of each,
[guessing at the number of acres being cleared by each fire then assumed that 40 percent would never return to their forested condition,
and finally doubled this number to arrive at an estimated guess for global deforestation.] The resulting number was into the widely cited
report by the World Resources Institute...that helped fuel the alarm over vanishing tropical forests; [and] was cited by Gore and other
administration officials last spring in announcing support for the Biodiversity Treaty.

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AT Biodiversity Loss
Biodiversity claims are exaggerated, there is no risk of extinction from deforestation
Rothbard and Rucker 97 (David Rothbard and Craig Rucker, Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, The rainforest issue:
Myths and facts CFACT Briefing Paper #102. http://www.cfact.org/site/view_article.asp?idCategory=5&idarticle=214)
Another important fact, according to Sedjo and Clawson, relates to a study done by the Food and Agriculture Organization and U.N.
Environmental Programme by J.P. Lanly. Lanly is Forest Coordinator for the UNEP/FAO Tropical Resources Assessment Project and his
study "indicates that [of the roughly 7 million acres worldwide per year] the undisturbed or "virgin"

broadleaved closed forests have a far lower rate of deforestation than the total, being only 0.27 percent
annually as compared with 2.06 percent annually for logged over secondary forest. This figure indicates that
deforestation pressure on the more pristine and generally more genetically diverse tropical forests is quite low."
Further, "these findings are in sharp contrast to the conventional view that the tropical forests are
`disappearing at an alarming rate' and suggest that concerns over the imminent loss of some of the
most important residences of the world's diverse genetic base, based on rates of tropical deforestation,
are probably grossly exaggerated." (Simon, Rational Readings, p.746) Sedjo and Clawson also said "While the local effects
of rapid deforestation may be severe, the evidence does not support the view that either the world or the tropics are experiencing rapid
aggregate deforestation. Furthermore, the evidence shows that current rates of deforestation are quite

modest in much of the world's virgin tropical forests, for example those of the Amazon; and therefore
they are probably in little danger of wholesale destruction in the foreseeable future." (Eco-Sanity, p.90)
Sandra Brown, professor of forestry at U. of Illinois and Ariel Lugo, project leader at the U.S. Forest Service's Institute of Tropical
Forestry in Puerto Rico also studied available data and "concluded the `dangerous' misinterpretation and exaggeration of the rate of
deforestation has become common." As for the amount of deforestation in relation to total forest area, Thomas Lovejoy, then of the
World Wildlife Fund, offered a low projection of 50% deforestation between 1980 and 2000 in Latin America and a high of 67%. The
source for this was a set of satellite photos taken in 1978 and reported in the Washington Post to show that "as much as one-tenth of the
Brazilian Amazon has been razed." But according to Fulbright scholar and ecologist Robert Buschbacher
working in Brazil, the Landsat photos "concluded that 1.55 percent of the Brazilian portion of the Amazon has

been deforested." "On the basis of this and other evidence, Buschbacher says, `Because of a relatively
low percentage of forest clearing and the remarkable capacity of the forest to recover its structure...the
threat of turning the Amazon into a wasteland is exaggerated.'

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Deforestation Good Economy/Food


Deforestation is key to industry, food production, housing and economic growth
Fiset 7 (Nathalie Fiset, M.D., is an expert author at ezinearticles.com. Benefits of Deforestation March 2007. http://ezinearticles.com/?
Benefits-of-Deforestation&id=504455)
Whenever people talk about deforestation, usually the things that spring to mind are negative thoughts brought on mostly by media
hypes and environmentalist drives. People think about global warming, depletion of natural resources, and the casual extinction of
indigenous fauna and flora. Yet people don't seem to realize that there are actually quite a few benefits of deforestation.
One of the easiest benefits of deforestation to spot are the economic ones. Lumber products are one of the most staple
constructive materials in human society. Whether it's raw lumber used for making tables and houses, or paper and other
wood by-products, we simply cannot live without the use of lumber. Like steel and stone, wood is one of the most basic
natural resources, and unlike steel and stone, it is renewable simply by growing more trees. The only real trick to balancing it's
consumption is to grow more trees to replace the ones taken. On a similarly related note, keep in mind that a lot of jobs revolve

around the use of lumber. Wood cutters aside, there are those who work in processing plants to make
glue from wood sap, process pulp into paper, and others. This is another benefit of deforestation; it
opens more job opportunities for people who would otherwise be unemployed. These job opportunities are more than simply a
humanitarian concept; society at large would suffer if all of the people working in the wood industry were to
suddenly find themselves jobless. This benefit of deforestation not only covers the people who cut down
trees and process them, but also extends to the people who "clean up" after them. For every patch of forest
cut down, arable land becomes available for farmers, or can be used as an area to place urban living
sites like apartments, houses, and buildings. The number of people employed by such a construction project are many and
varied. Or, if the city/government mandates replanting trees to replace the lost ones, then jobs are also provided for those people who do
the seeding after a patch of forest is stripped. Thinking about it, the cleared areas are places which provide a lot of
potential for growth, and this is yet another benefit of deforestation. As stated above, arable land is

valuable, and the act of deforestation to clear a place for farm land provides a much needed additional
food source for man. More often than not, the soil in a forest is much richer than that of regular farm lands because of the wide
variety of life it supports. This new land area grants a much needed place to grow a food supply to deal with the planet's steadily
expanding population of humanity. Then, of course, there is the fact that these cleared areas may be razed for urban renewal. Given

our burgeoning population growth, additional living areas made on cleared forest land is another
benefit of deforestation. These places can be converted into more than just housing areas. Buildings which can house offices for
work, or factories to produce clothing and other essential items, or even research facilities for things like new medical or technological
advances can be placed in these deforested areas. Lastly, another benefit of deforestation to consider is the access it provides to other
natural resources that may lay within the forest's land area. Some places with heavy forests are home to iron ore, mineral, and even oil
deposits which can be used for man's needs. These natural resources would otherwise lay dormant and untapped unless people access
them. The act of deforestation may not be entirely necessary to get at these deposits sometimes, but coupled with the advantages given
above, the combination of opening up a new mine or oil well when taken with extra living spaces or farm lands for food makes a lot of
sense. So, given all of the benefits of deforestation outlined above, you can see that more often than not, the good

outweighs the bad. The planet's environment may indeed suffer from the effects of deforestation, but
that is due to irresponsible use of the resources and other benefits provided, not the deforestation itself.
As people living on the planet, our duty is not to "hold back" and stop cutting trees. It is to use what we glean from the Earth responsibly
and wisely for humanity and the planet's benefit.

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Deforestation Good Economics


The economic benefits of deforestation outweigh the costs
Andersen 97 (Lykke E. Andersen, Professor, Department of Economics University of Aarhus, Demmark. A Cost-Benefit Analysis of
Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon Rio de Janeiro, January 1997 www.ipea.gov.br/pub/td/td0455.pdf)

This paper has attempted to collect the best available evidence on the total economic value of standing
Amazonian rain forest. Estimates were calculated for both a low discount rate of 2% and a higher discount rate of 6%. The low
discount rate is most compatible with the rate a global social planner would adopt. At this rate the total economic value of a standing rain
forest is estimated at roughly $l8,000/hectare (in 1990 US$). The value of a standing forest was compared with

estimares of the net present value of different agricultural land uses. It was shown that a sequence of
land uses provides the optimal development strategy. Loggers should first be allowed to extract the
commercially valuable timber from the virgin forest. Then smallscale farmers should be granted
property rights and be allowed to use the land as they find optimal. This is likely to be unsustainable slash-andburn cultivation of annual crops initially, but as the area develops and population densities and land prices increase, there will be a
natural intensification in the use of land and the area will eventually be covered with sustainable perennial crops. This sequence of land
uses yields an estimated net present agricultural value of roughly $24,000/hectare. With spill-over effects to the urban

sector the total net present value of agricultural land increases to about $l20,000/hectare. The potential
benefits of deforestation thus seem to exceed the costs at the current level of deforestation. However, these
two estimares of the costs and the benefits of deforestation only represent one point on the cost curve and one point on the benefit curve,
namely the points associated with approximately 10% deforestation. As the level of deforestation increases, the global costs of
deforestation will rise, and it will eventually pass the value of agricultural land. At that point, the international comunity has to provide
incentives to induce Brazil to preserve the remainder of the forest. The external benefits of a standing rain forest amounts to roughly
$9,000/hectare at the current level of deforestation. At the optimal level it will be much higher. Thus, international transfers in excess of
$9,000/hectare will be needed to secure that deforestation in the world largest remaining rain forest will not exceed the globally optimal
level.

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Brazil Econ Turn Module


Demand for timber exports is a key factor in Brazils economy
Stevis 1 (Dimitris, The International Political Economy of the Environment, P148, 2001,
http://books.google.com/books?
id=FlaA0HpxkZoC&pg=PA148&lpg=PA148&dq=brazil+economy+based+on+timber&source=bl&ots=DMRNBfo
1Xo&sig=uT_sFX1C7bqYOZEw6tg0wIfXpug&hl=en&ei=tM5YSo79ApGMtAPVm5meCQ&sa=X&oi=book_resu
lt&ct=result&resnum=6) LE
Historically, forest products have not played an important role in Brazils economy. However, exports
of these products have been growing steadily, mainly due to the increase in tropical timber trade
facilitated by trade liberalization and the opening of the economy to foreign investment. Thus, the role of
timber in the Brazilian economy is expanding and experiencing a real boom, encouraged by strong
international demand for tropical hardwoods. A recent World Bank analysis indicates that Brazil is poised
to increase its supply of wood products on the global market.

Brazil economy key to the world economy


Schulz 2k (Donald E, Chairman of the Political Science Department at Cleveland State University and he was
Research Professor of National Security Policy at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College,
THE UNITED STATES AND LATIN AMERICA: SHAPING AN ELUSIVE FUTURE,
http://209.85.141.104/search?q=cache:jxrChqjDPasJ:www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub31.pdf,
March 2000, AD: 7/11/09) JC
What are the major threats confronting Latin America, how do they affect U.S. security interests, and how is this configuration likely to
change over the next quarter century? Currently, there are several concerns. One of the most important is the danger posed by economic
instability. By late 1998, the international financial crisis that had begun in Asia in 1997, and then moved on to devastate Russia in the
summer of 1998, hit Latin America. Brazil seemed to be teetering on the brink of disaster. Capital flight was depleting its reserves,
raising questions about the countrys ability to pay its short-term debt. As the eighth largest economy in the world, Brazil accounts

for almost half of the output of Latin America, a region which buys roughly a fifth of U.S. exports. If
the Brazilian economy went into a deep and prolonged recession, the spillover into other countries
might trigger social and political turmoil that could endanger the regions young and still fragile
democracies. Similarly, the impact on the U.S. banking system and economy would be substantial.
More than 450 of the Fortune 500 companies do business in Brazil, which receives more direct foreign
investment from the United States than any other country except China. 11 Fears about the countrys
economic health were already affecting the U.S. stock market.

Continued economic decline will result in global war.


Mead, 9 (Walter Russell Mead, Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign
Relations. The New Republic, Only Makes You Stronger, February 4 2009.
http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=2 AD 6/30/09) JM
Frequently, the crisis has weakened the power of the merchants, industrialists, financiers, and professionals who want to develop a
liberal capitalist society integrated into the world. Crisis can also strengthen the hand of religious extremists, populist radicals, or
authoritarian traditionalists who are determined to resist liberal capitalist society for a variety of reasons. Meanwhile, the companies and
banks based in these societies are often less established and more vulnerable to the consequences of a financial crisis than more
established firms in wealthier societies. As a result, developing countries and countries where capitalism has relatively recent and
shallow roots tend to suffer greater economic and political damage when crisis strikes--as, inevitably, it does.
And, consequently, financial crises often reinforce rather than challenge the global distribution of power

and wealth. This may be happening yet again. None of which means that we can just sit back and enjoy the
recession. History may suggest that financial crises actually help capitalist great powers maintain their leads-but it has other, less reassuring messages as well.If financial crises have been a normal part of
life during the 300-year rise of the liberal capitalist system under the Anglophone powers, so has war. The
wars of the League of Augsburg and the Spanish Succession; the Seven Years War; the American Revolution; the Napoleonic Wars; the
two World Wars; the cold war: The list of wars is almost as long as the list of financial crises. Bad economic times can breed

wars. Europe was a pretty peaceful place in 1928, but the Depression poisoned German public opinion

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and helped bring Adolf Hitler to power. If the current crisis turns into a depression, what rough beasts
might start slouching toward Moscow, Karachi, Beijing, or New Delhi to be born? The United States
may not, yet, decline, but, if we can't get the world economy back on track, we may still have to fight.

Brazil UQ Econ Strong


Brazils economy is recovering it will continue to be strengthened
Alves 9 (Fabio, Brazil Economy Outlook, Bloomberg News, 7-10-9, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?
pid=20601086&sid=aH9rA6cC1cBA) LE
People are getting comfortable that Brazil has overcome this global crisis and the local economy is doing
way better than in other countries, said Greg Lesko, who manages $500 million in emerging-market
stocks, including Vivo, at Deltec Asset Management LLC in New York. Investors are looking for more
Brazil specific plays, so when you buy Vivo or Tim you dont get U.S. growth risk. Brazils
unemployment rate dropped in May for a second straight month, while companies created jobs for the
fourth month, signs the economy is recovering after the central bank slashed borrowing costs four times
this year to a record low of 9.25 percent. Latin Americas biggest economy will probably expand 4 percent
next year, more than a previous estimate for 3.7 percent growth, Ilan Goldfajn, chief economist at Itau
Unibanco Holding SA, wrote in a report dated July 8.

Brazil is stable despite global crisis


Alface 9 (Jose, Brazil Offers Confidence to Investors, International Business Times, 7-9-9,
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20090709/brazil-offers-samba-confidence-investors.htm) LE
The continued growth of its GDP has led to a booming middle class which now has the highest buying
power in its history. Brazil contains nearly a fifth of the world's fresh water, allowing them to expand
agricultural production and generate carbon-free electricity while recent discoveries of oil reserves has
together painted an atmosphere of prosperity -- a mainframe for foreign investment attraction. "When there
is turbulence in the international market, but to compensate, a country has a growing local market,
then they can more easily overcome the crisis," the Consul General of Brazil in New York, Ambassador
Osmar Chohfi, told IBTimes, speaking about the current state of Brazil's economy.

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Timber k/t Brazilian Econ


Wood exports are the key to maintaining a stable economy in Brazil
Camargo 8 (Mariane, US markets and Brazil, P23, May 2008,
http://wfi.worldforestry.org/media/publications/specialreports/US_markets_Brazil_Camargo.pdf) LE
In order to remain competitive and survive in this market downturn, producers must redefine their products
and services. Key factors are: greater durability, superior quality, new applications and process
improvements. All should be combined with aggressive pricing. The wood products market is critical to
Brazils economy and environment. This will become more significant in the future as Brazil relies
more on sustainable softwood and hardwood plantation forests. Even during difficult economic times,
it is important to continue developing trade relationships. Many forecasts predict good news in the
medium term, but the current economic downturn is a reminder that one must plan for both good and bad
times.

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Brazil- I/L Ext- K Global Econ


Brazils economy is key to the global economy- better positioned than China
Claus Vistesen, macroeconomist- Copenhagen Business School, May 20, 2008, Brazil's Economy - Not
Emerging Anymore? http://globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com/2008/05/brazils-economy-not-emerginganymore.html
Brazil is interesting; not only because of its fabulous nature, its rhythmic and musical heritage, and its
(alleged) repository of beautiful women but also because of the position it commands in the global
economy, the latter topic being the focus of this note. Consequently, Brazil's economy represents an excellent
point of departure for the evaluation of many highly strung discourses in the context of the global economy
and her financial markets. These discourses include the debate on de-coupling/re-coupling, global inflation, Bretton Woods
II/global imbalances, and global liquidity/SWFs just to name a few. In what follows, I will try to present an argument to explain why it is
that I am so very constructive on the upside potential for Brazil's economy, while at the same time trying to untangle (as I have tried so
many times before) some of the above mentioned areas of discussion and debate in the context of the global economy and Brazil.

Perhaps the most telling sign of Brazil's increasing status as a global force to be reckoned with was the
recent announcement by Brazil's National Petroleum Agency (ANP) of the discovery of a new oil field
(Carioca) which potentially holds as much as 33 billion barrels of oil - enough to supply every refinery in the
U.S. for six years - making it the third-largest oil field ever discovered (only Saudi Arabia's Ghawar and
Kuwait's Burgan fields are bigger - Ghawar reputedly holds as much as 83 billion barrels of crude, while
Burgan is claimed to have up to 72 billion). Coupled with the discovery last year of the Tupi field - which has an estimated
reservoir of between 5 and 8 billion barrels of oil, and could itself produce output at the not to be sneezed at rate of a million barrels a
day - this is very likely to fast forward Brazil rapidly up through the ranks of global oil producing nations. This new found oil prowess
even prompted the president Lula da Silva recently to suggest that Brazil enter OPEC. Such oil discoveries come at a near-perfect time
for Brazil who thus seems set not only to enjoy the upward march of commodities such as sugar, rice, beef, soya, oranges, iron ore etc
but now also the black gold. Of course, the set up of a proper supply chain in the context of oil production takes time and it will take at
least one year before we see the first barrels rolling in from Tupi not to speak of Carioca. However, Petrobras (Petroleo Brasileiro SA) is
not sitting idle and the effects of Brazil's oil discoveries are already rippling through the market. Extraordinary evidence of this was
delivered in the context of Petrobras' demand for the world's deepest-drilling offshore rigs to put action behind the recent discoveries.
Petrobras is rumored to be hawking as much as 80% of global capacity as a function of the company's demand for deep drilling rigs and
given the fact that these things don't exactly come off the shelf with the same ease as flat screens it will take some time for supply to
respond to the increased demand thus pushing up rent for these vessels. In many ways, as Edward also hints in a recent

article the oil discoveries mentioned above represent a good initial image of Brazil's growing role in the
global economy. Petrobras thus projects investments to the tune of 112 billion USD between 2008 and 2012 which, if realized, are
sure to calm down even the most careful treasurer in the Brazilian finance ministry. Thus assured of Brazil's current economic potential
we should take a few steps back and have a look at the historical economic performance of Brazil, how it got to where it is today and
where it is likely to go in the future? First, why not take a glance at some charts? It does not take much of a macroeconomist to see how
the stories above tell a story of rapid economic development. Obviously, it is difficult to make solid conclusions solely on

the basis of growth figures but as can readily be observed Brazil is moving up in the world. Especially, the
figures for PPP adjusted GDP are interesting since they show how Brazil is steadily and unrelentlessly
creating an ever larger share of global GDP. The inflation figure also shows that almost a decade's worth
of rampant inflation has now receded to much more comfortable levels. As for the allure of Brazilian
asset markets the last figure just about sums it up. Over the three year period a US investor investing 1 mill
USD the 16th of May 2005 would have been able to walk away with just shy of 4.5 mill USD the
corresponding date 2008 (note that the exchange rate is with our US friend here too). Of course, such
examples are not kosher as we are not looking at risk (e.g. standard deviation or global beta) but the rate of
expansion in the main stock index is still quite remarkable, even border lining on a bubble if you look at
the growth rate alone. This performance is, of course, to some extent shared by the other usual suspects
who make up the notorious BRIC group, as originally coined by Goldman Sachs. I would not want to take
anything away from GS here but simply note that the BRIC narrative is not exactly fitting for what is
happening in the global economy. It is indeed true that the four economies are amongst the fastest growing
economies of the world but they are very difficult in terms of structural setup which tends to blur the
analysis. Specifically, I would distinguish between Brazil, India, and China on one side and Russia on the
other. Soon in fact China may join Russia's side of the fence if the inflation bonfire currently
experienced proves inextinguishable.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2009


46
Lab
File Title

Brazil- I/L Ext- K Global Econ


Brazil is key to the global economy
Property Wire, 03 May 2008, Brazil tipped to be major world economic power,
http://www.propertywire.com/news/south-america/brazil-tipped-to-be-major-world-economic-power20080503906.html
Sam Zell, chief executive of Chicago Tribune and chairman and president of Equity Group Investments
LLC, believes Brazil ticks all the right boxes. He said Brazil's large population of 180 million people,
highly-trained work force, and array of crops and natural resources has made it largely self-sufficient.
'I'd buy Brazil,' Zell told the Milken Institute Global Conference. 'It has the chance 30 years from now of
being a bigger economic power than China.' Goldman Sachs is also tipping Brazil for big things although
on a longer timescale than Zell. The investment bank believes Brazil is on course to be the 5th largest
economy in the world by 2050.

Brazil key to Latin America economy


Walser 8 (Ray, Ph.D., is Senior Policy Analyst for Latin American in the Sarah and Douglas Allison Center for
Foreign Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation, Meeting Energy Challenges in the Western Hemisphere,
http://www.heritage.org/Research/LatinAmerica/hl1079.cfm, 2008, AD: 7/11/09) JC
The future direction of energy policy in South America will, to a very large degree, be determined by
developments in Brazil. With its 190 million citizens and a $1.83 trillion economy, Brazil has become
the globe's eighth-largest economy. In the past decade, it has developed strong macroeconomic stability and
combined market growth with novel and effective programs aimed at tackling poverty and improving human
capital. It is a center for regional trade, via MERCOSUR, and a major player on the international
commodities and economic scene. It is also a potential leader for a more unified South America. But it can,
as The Heritage Foundation's 2008 Index of Economic Freedom indicates, do much more to improve its
current rank of 101st out of 157 nations.[3]

Latin America economy key to world economy


Schulz 2k (Donald E, Chairman of the Political Science Department at Cleveland State University and he was
Research Professor of National Security Policy at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College,
THE UNITED STATES AND LATIN AMERICA: SHAPING AN ELUSIVE FUTURE,
http://209.85.141.104/search?q=cache:jxrChqjDPasJ:www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub31.pdf,
March 2000, AD: 7/11/09) JC
How does Latin America fit into this scheme? The first thing that must be said is that in a hemisphere that is
increasingly integrated and interdependent, the growth and prosperity of the Latin America economies
will profoundly affect the prosperity of the United States. Latin America is the United States fastest
growing market, with exports in 1998 exceeding those going to the European Union. 4 By 2010, indeed,
overall U.S. trade with the region is projected to exceed that with Europe and Japan combined. Some
of this, at least, is of strategic importance Venezuela alone provides as much oil to the United States as do all
of the Persian Gulf states together. 5 The continued provision of Venezuelan and Mexican petroleum, as well
as access to the major new oil reserves of Colombia, constitutes an importantand arguably vitalU.S.
interest which directly affects national well-being.