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mathematical psychology. and k are constants. L=1) has an easily calculated derivat ive: \frac{d}{dx}f(x) = f(x)\cdot(1-f(x)). x \mapsto f(x) . The logistic function finds applications in a range of fields. economics.2 Logistic differential equation 2 Applications 2. grow th stops. Contents [hide] 1 Mathematical properties 1.1 Logistic regression 2. then.7 In economics: diffusion of innovations 3 Generalizations 3. due to the nature of the exponential function e-x. biology. it is often suff icient to compute x over a small range of real numbers such as [-6.[1] For values of x in the range of real numbers from -8 to +8.2 In statistics and machine learning 2.1 Double logistic function 4 See also 5 Notes 6 References 7 External links Mathematical properties In practice.4 In chemistry: reaction models 2. including artific ial neural networks.1 Time-varying carrying capacity 2. The function was named in 1844-1845 by Pierre François Verhulst.1 Derivative 1.6 In linguistics: language change 2. especially ecology.2.1. and statistics. +6]. geoscience. the growth slows.2.1/2 is an odd function.5 In physics: Fermi distribution 2. Derivative The standard logistic function (k=1. the free encyclopedia For the recurrence relation. It also has the property that 1-f(x) = f(-x). L. Standard logistic sigmoid function A logistic function or logistic curve is a common "S" shape (sigmoid curve). see Logistic map. as saturation begins.[2] The initial stage of growth is approximately exponential. chemistry.\. probability. wit h equation: f(x) = \frac{L}{1 + \mathrm e^{-k(x-x_0)}} where e is the natural logarithm base (also known as Euler's number) and x0.1 In ecology: modeling population growth 2.\. dem ography. and at maturity.3 In medicine: modeling of growth of tumors 2. biomathematics. the S-curve shown on the right is obtained (with the graph of f approaching L as x approaches +8 and approaching zero as x approaches -8).2 Neural networks 2. x0=0. sociology.Logistic function From Wikipedia. Thus. . political science. who studied it in relation to population growth.

Letting P represent population size (N is often used in ecology instead) and t r epresent time. In the equation. where the rate of repro duction is proportional to both the existing population and the amount of availa ble resources. This equation is the continuous version of t he logistic map. all else being equal. becomes larger than the first as some members of the . The Verhulst equation was published after V erhulst had read Thomas Malthus' An Essay on the Principle of Population. The equation is also sometimes called the Verhulst-Pearl equat ion following its rediscovery in 1920. Verhul st derived his logistic equation to describe the self-limiting growth of a biolo gical population.p. f(x) = 1 + \tanh \left( \frac{x}{2} \right).\frac{P}{K}\right) where the constant r defines the growth rate and K is the carrying capacity. by 2 \. The logistic sigmoid function is related to the hyperbolic tangent. as the population grows. Lotka derived the equation agai n in 1925. and thus for any function value gre ater than zero and less than unit. Later. One may readily find the (symbolic) solution to be f(x)=\frac{e^{x}}{e^{x}+e^{x_0}} Choosing the constant of integration ex0 = 1 gives the other well-known form of the definition of the logistic curve f(x) = \frac{e^x}{e^x + 1} \! = \frac{1}{1 + e^{-x}} \! More quantitatively. the early. the conversion from t he log-likelihood ratio of two alternatives also takes the form of a logistic cu rve. unimpeded growth rate is modeled by the first term + rP. Applications In ecology: modeling population growth Pierre-François Verhulst (1804 1849) A typical application of the logistic equation is a common model of population g rowth. The value of the rate r represents the proportional increase of the populati on P in one unit of time. The qualitative behavior is easily understood in terms of the phase line: the de rivative is null when function is unit and the derivative is positive for f betw een 0 and 1. this model is formalized by the differential equation: \frac{dP}{dt}=rP\left(1 . originally due to Pierre-François Verhulst in 1838. calling it the law of population growth. as can be seen from the analytical solution. then approaches one with an expo nentially decaying gap. A. it grows to unit. and a stable equilibrium at 1. The logistic function is the inverse of the natural logit function and so can be used to convert the logarithm of odds into a probability. which multiplied out is -rP2/K. This yields an unstable equi librium at 0. the logistic c urve shows early exponential growth for negative argument. Alfred J. the second term.Logistic differential equation The logistic function is the solution of the simple first-order non-linear diffe rential equation \frac{d}{dx}f(x) = f(x)(1-f(x)) with boundary condition f(0) = 1/2. which slows to linear growth of slope 1/4 for an argument near zero. and negative for f above 1 or less than 0 (though negative populati ons do not generally accord with a physical model).

It can be shown that in such a case. Time-varying carrying capacity Since the environmental conditions influence the carrying capacity. multiple S-shapes). punctuated unlimi ted growth (i. [3] which has a very rich behavior. This antagonistic effect is called the bottleneck. In ecology. also in case that P(0) > K. whose period is T. A typical value of T is one year: in such case K(t) reflects periodical variatio ns of weather conditions. independently from the initial value P(0) > 0.\. punctuated growth or alternation to a stat ionary level. sustainable oscillatio ns. The competition diminishes the combined growth rate. oscillatory approach to a stationary level. For example. such as food or living space. as well as a monotonic decay to zero.e. finite-time singularities as well as finite-time death. with bistability in some parameter range.. P(t) will tend to a unique periodic solution P*(t). The solution to the equation (with P_0 being the initial population) is P(t) = \frac{K P_0 e^{rt}}{K + P_0 \left( e^{rt} . This leads to a logistic delay equation. and is modeled by the value of the parameter K. they ar e the cumulative distribution function of the logistic family of distributions. capturing a delay in the w ay population modifies its environment. smooth exponential growth.\frac{P}{K}\right) Now setting x=P/K gives the differential equation \frac{dx}{dt} = r x (1-x) For r = 1 we have the particular case with which we started. Which is to say that K is the limiting value of P: the highest value that the po pulation can reach given infinite time (or come close to reaching in finite time ). as a consequ ence it can be time-varying: K(t) > 0. until the value of P ceases to grow (this is called maturi ty of the population). In statistics and machine learning Logistic functions are used in several roles in statistics. It is important to stress that the carrying capacity is asymptotically reache d independently of the initial value P(0) > 0.\frac{P}{K(t)}\right) A particularly important case is that of carrying capacity that varies periodica lly with period T: K(t+T) = K(t). Dividing both sides of the equation by K gives \frac{d}{dt}\frac{P}{K}=r\frac{P}{K}\left(1 .1\right)} where \lim_{t\to\infty} P(t) = K. Logistic regression Main article: Logistic regression Logistic functions are used in logistic regression to model how the probability . leading to the following mathematical mod el: \frac{dP}{dt}=rP\left(1 . species are sometimes referred to as r-strategist or K-strategist de pending upon the selective processes that have shaped their life history strateg ies. More specific examples now follow.population P interfere with each other by competing for some critical resource.\. Another interesting generalization is to consider that the carrying capacity K(t ) is a function of the population at an earlier time.

Practitioners caut ion that sigmoidal functions which are antisymmetric about the origin (e. the hyperbolic tangent) lead to faster convergence when training networks with backp ropagation. used to clip for la rge magnitudes to keep the response of the neural network bounded[4] is g(h) = \frac{1}{1 + e^{-2 \beta h}} \! which is a logistic function. where the logistic differe ntial equation is used to model the growth of tumors. Neural networks Logistic functions are often used in neural networks to introduce nonlinearity i n the model and/or to clamp signals to within a specified range.\frac{X}{K}\right)X . F^{\prime}(X) \le 0 where F(X) is the proliferation rate of the tumor.g.c(t)X. A generalisation of the logistic function to multiple inputs is the softmax activation function. the softplus. where x is the explanatory variable and a and b are model parameters to be fitte d. These relationships result in simplified implement ations of artificial neural networks with artificial neurons. This application can be co nsidered an extension of the above mentioned use in the framework of ecology (se e also the Generalized logistic curve. its dynamics are governed by: X^{\prime}=r\left(1 . and applies a bounded logistic function to the result. the equation may be revised to be X^{\prime}=r\left(1 . the Rasch model forms a b asis for maximum likelihood estimation of the locations of objects or persons on a continuum. In the idealized case of very long therapy.[5] The logistic function is itself the derivative of another proposed activation fu nction. allowing for more parameters). Denoting w ith X(t) the size of the tumor at time t. where c(t) is the therapy-induced death rate. and one has that . Logistic regression and other log-linear models are also commonly used in machin e learning. A common choice for the activation or "squashing" functions. used in multinomial logistic regression. If a chemotherapy is started with a log-kill effect. A popular neura l net element computes a linear combination of its input signals. An important application[citation needed] of the logistic function is in the Ras ch model. In medicine: modeling of growth of tumors See also: Gompertz curve § Growth of tumors Another application of logistic curve is in medicine. this model can be seen as a "smoothed" variant of the classical threshold neuron. In particular. for example the abilitie s of persons on a continuum based on responses that have been categorized as cor rect and incorrect. based on collections of categorical data. used in item response theory. c(t) can be modeled as a periodic function (of period T) or (in case o f continuous infusion therapy) as a constant function.\frac{X}{K}\right)X which is of the type: X^{\prime}=F\left(X\right)X.p of an event may be affected by one or more explanatory variables: an example w ould be to have the model p=P(a + bx)\.

the ascent as frenzy. the logistic function can be used to model language change:[6] a n innovation that is at first marginal begins to spread more quickly with time. Of course. In physics: Fermi distribution The logistic function determines the statistical distribution of fermions over t he energy states of a system in thermal equilibrium.[10] Carlota Perez used a logistic curve to illustrate the long (Kondratiev) business cycle with the following labels: beginning of a technological era as irruption. dramatic impr ovement and cost reduction opportunities are exhausted.[7] Cesare Marchetti pub lished on long economic cycles and on diffusion of innovations. In linguistics: language change In linguistics. incandesc ent light bulbs. it does not tak e into account the phenomenon of clonal resistance). Its general formula is: f(x) = \mathrm{sgn}(x-d) \. These papers deal with the diffu sion of various innovations. Some of the more famous examples are: railroads. \Bigg(1-\exp\bigg(-\bigg(\frac{x-d}{s}\bigg)^2\bigg )\Bigg). Long e conomic cycles were investigated by Robert Ayres (1989).[11] Generalizations A generalized logistic curve can model the "S-shaped" behaviour (abbreviated S-c urve) of growth of some population P. if the average therapy-induced death rate is greater than the baseline prol iferation rate then there is the eradication of the disease. Historically. when new products are intro duced there is an intense amount of research and development which leads to dram atic improvements in quality and reductions in cost. electrification. this is an oversimplified model of both the growth and the therapy (e. In chemistry: reaction models The concentration of reactants and products in autocatalytic reactions follow th e logistic function. railroads. showing that their diffusion fol lowed logistic shaped curves. Logistic analysis was used in papers by several researchers at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). it is the di stribution of the probabilities that each possible energy level is occupied by a fermion. according to Fermi Dirac statistics. In particular. highways and airlines. the product or process a re in widespread use with few remaining potential new customers. cars and air travel. This leads to a period of r apid industry growth. and then more slowly as it becomes more universally adopted. Double logistic function Double logistic sigmoid curve The double logistic is a function similar to the logistic function with numerous applications[citation needed]. and markets bec ome saturated.g.e. dt} > r \rightarrow \lim_{t \rightarrow +\infty} x(t)=0 i. . Eventually.\frac{1}{T}\int_{0}^{T}{c(t)\. the rapid build out as synergy and the completion as matu rity. infrastructures and energy source substitutions and the role of work in the economy as well as with the long economic cycle.[8][9] Arnulf Grübl er s book (1990) gives a detailed account of the diffusion of infrastructures incl uding canals. In economics: diffusion of innovations The logistic function can be used to illustrate the progress of the diffusion of an innovation through its life cycle.

One of its applications is non-linear normalization of a statistical sample. (1998). The Rise and Fall of Infrastructures: Dynamics o f Evolution and Technological Change in Transport. V.. doi:10. Jennedy (eds. See also Diffusion of innovations Generalised logistic curve Gompertz curve Heaviside step function Hubbert curve Logistic distribution Logistic map Logistic regression Logistic smooth-transmission model Logit Log-likelihood ratio Malthusian growth model r/K selection theory Shifted Gompertz distribution Tipping point (sociology) Notes Jump up ^ Verhulst. ISBN 978-0-521-57095-4. Nouveaux Mémoires de l'Académie Royale des Sciences et Belles-L ettres de Bruxelles 18: 1 42. Sharon E. Jump up ^ Marchetti. Eric W. Cambridge.. UK: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited. G.) 2003. Retrieved 3 December 2014. P. Pierre-François (1845). Jump up ^ Marchetti. (2009).. Kingsland. D. Muller. Retrieved 2013-02-18. Weisstein. "Kondratiev Revisited-After One Cycle". (1999). "Logistic Equation". K. ISBN 0-226-43728-0. L.physd.011. Hay. Probabilistic Linguistics.. "Recherches mathématiques sur la loi d'a ccroissement de la population" [Mathematical Researches into the Law of Populati on Growth Increase]..05. Heidelberg and New York: Phys ica-Verlag. Cesare (1988). Jump up ^ Yukalov. ISBN 3-540-65311-2. Arnulf (1990). Y. Jump up ^ Verhulst. edit Jump up ^ Gershenfeld 1999. Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital : The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena 238 (17) : 1752. MathWorld. . Hay. Bod. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. "Notice sur la loi que la population p oursuit dans son accroissement" (PDF). pp. "Pervasive Long Waves: Is Society Cyclotymic ". Robert (1989). Orr.where d is its centre and s is the steepness factor. Neil A. Neural Networks: Tricks of the trade (Springer). Jump up ^ Grübler. ISBN 1-84376-331-1. p. Bottou. Gershenfeld. G.2009. Modeling nature: episodes in the history of populat ion ecology. Muller. K. Jump up ^ Bod. "Punctuated evol ution due to delayed carrying capacity". Pierre-François (1838). Correspondance mathématique et physique 10: 113 121. External links . The Nature of Mathematical Modeling. References Jannedy. Jennifer (2003).1016/j. Yukalova. Orr. Sornette. Stefanie. ISBN 0-262-52338-8.. Rens. Jump up ^ Perez. (1995). 147 156 Jump up ^ Ayres. It is based on the Gaussian curve and graphically it is similar to two identical logistic sigmoids bonded together at the point x = d. I..150 Jump up ^ LeCun. C ambridge. as it has the property of eliminating outliers. E. Efficient BackProp. Massachusetts: MIT Press. Here "sgn" represents the s ign function. UK: Cambridge University Press. Carlota (2002). Cesare (1996). eds. "Technological Transformations and Long Waves".