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Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

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Chapter 4:

Probability Definitions

o Probability

o Event

o Simple

o Event

o Sample space

Types of Probability

o A priori classical probability

An example

o Empirical classical probability

An example

o Subjective probability

An example

o The differences between the three above. Their calculation methods.

Simple vs. Joint Probability

o Definitions

o Differences

Mutually Exclusive Events

o Definition

o Example

o Counter-example

Collectively Exhaustive Events

o Definition

o Example

o Counter Example

Constructing Contingency Tables

Computing Joint and Marginal Probabilities

o Formulae

o Calculating from a given contingency table

Probability Summary

o Certainty

o Uncertainty

o Impossibility

General Addition and Multiplication Rules

o Solve examples

Computing Conditional Probability

o Solve examples w’th cont’ngency tables and decision trees

Statistical Independence

o Definition

o Give an example

Bayes’ Theorem

o Definition

o Formula

o Example

Chapter 5:

Definitions

o Random Variable

Discrete RV

Continuous RV

o Probability Distribution

Condition of being Mutually Exclusive and Collectively Exhaustive

Representing the discrete probability distribution with a

Simple chart

Bar chart

Expected Value

o Example

Dispersion with RVs

o Example

Covariance

o Definition

o What happens if

Positive

Negative

Zero

o Example

The Sum of Two Random Variables

o Expected value

o Variance

o Standard Deviation

Portfolio Expected Returns and Expected Risk

o What represents expected returns?

o What represents expected risk?

o Example

Important Probability Distributions

o What are the three important discrete probability distributions?

o What are the three important continuous probability distributions?

Binomial Distribution

o When to apply?

o What are its properties?

o What is its formula?

What are the three values you need to calculate a binomial probability?

Example

o What are its characteristics?

Mean

Variance

Standard Deviation

o How does its shape look as n increases and p approaches to 0.5?

Poisson Distribution

o Area of opportunity

o When to apply?

o What is its formula?

What are the two values you need to calculate a Poisson probability?

Example

o How does its shape look for different lambda values?

o What are its characteristics?

Mean

Variance

Standard Deviation

What is the relationship between its mean and variance?

Hypergeometric Distribution

o What difference is there, between the Binomial and Hypergeometric Distribution?

o What are the four values needed in calculating a Hypergeometric probability?

o What is its formula?

Example

o What are its characteristics?

Mean

Variance

Standard Deviation

o Example

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