Professional Documents
Culture Documents
October 8, 2014
Mid-Range Plan
Agenda
Executive Summary
Mid-Range Plan
Agenda
Executive Summary
Corporate Strategy
Vision
A Global Market Share Leader Powered
By The Industry's Best Creative Teams
And Delivering Maximum Profits
Grow Market
Share
Expand and
Grow Digital
Revenue
Models
Maximize
Results
Across All
Our
International
Operations
Maximize
Opportunities
With Broader
Rights and
New Business
Reduce and
Control
Costs/
Maximize
Efficiencies
Aggressively
Pursue
One Sony
Initiatives
5
Full Year
FYE15FC
Revenues
$1,286
$1,261
-$25M
$2,780
Operating
Income
$95
$107
+$12M
$240
$42
$66
+$24M
$138
Full Year
Forecasted
Operating
Income and
Cash Flow
Expected to
be On or
Above
Business Plan
MAGIC!
Meghan Trainor
Ella Henderson
Pharrell Williams
Calvin Harris
Kid Ink
Sia
Rita Ora
Hozier
MKTO
Pentatonix
Fifth Harmony
Kongos
Bobby Shmurda
Future
Tyler Farr
George Ezra
Collabro
Juicy J
Becky G
Tinashe
Bleachers
G-Eazy
7
$2,780
$2,735
$2,763
$2,896
CAGR
+0.4%
FYE12
Actual
FYE15
Forecast
FYE16
FYE17
FYE18
Mid-Range Planning Period
$250
$260
$133
% Operating
Income Margin
$275
CAGR
+12.9%
FYE12
Actual
FYE15
Forecast
4.7%
8.6%
FYE16
FYE17
FYE18
Mid-Range Planning Period
9.1%
9.4%
9.5%
Mid-Range Plan
Agenda
Executive Summary
$1,183
$1,261
-$25M
Vs PY
+$78M
Vs BP
+$12M
Vs PY
+$77M
Vs BP
$107
$95
$30
FYE14ACT
FYE15BP
FYE15ACT
FYE14ACT
Revenues
Operating Income
Net Income
Net Cash Flow
Before Financing
$30
$18
$38
FYE15ACT
Operating Income
Revenues
FYE15BP
$107
$57 *
$66
Vs PY
Vs BP
-$25M
+$78M
+$12M
+$77M
-$44M
+$24M
+$39M
+$28M
Highlights
Favorable Sales Due to:
Success of Michael Jackson and Pharrell Williams
Unbudgeted John Legend Carryover, Jack White and Future
Favorable Sales and Success of MAGIC!
Earlier Than budgeted Release of Sia and Kenny Chesney
Favorable Digital Track Sales of Meghan Trainor, DJ Snake and Calvin Harris
Favorable SoundExchange
Recognition of Digital Unearned Advances/Guarantees (SNEI and XBOX)
Partially Offset by: Slippage of Usher, Rita Ora, Maxwell and Miguel
Favorable Operating Income Due to:
Favorable Flow Through From Sales
Recognition of Beats Gain On Sale and Sale of Nashville Building
Favorable Syco International TV Format Revenues
Favorable Timing of Talent
Favorable Cash Flow Due to:
Higher Operating Results
Proceeds From Sale of Nashville Building and Proceeds From Sale of Beats
Investment
Partly Offset by Syco Dividend Payment to Simon Cowell and Timing of
Payments
* Net Income Significantly Unfavorable to Prior Year As Prior Year Included Favorable Tax Audit Settlement In Holland
11
Michael Jackson*
Chris Brown
Sia
$13M
$29M
Pharrell Williams*
$7M
Miranda Lambert
$7M
$6M
Beyonc
$5M
($11M RTD)
($31M RTD)
John Legend
Barbra Streisand
$10M
Now 88
$9M
$6M
MAGIC!
$6M
$5M
Now 87
($22M RTD)
$5M
($10M RTD)
12
Revenues
Operating
Income
FYE13ACT
FYE14ACT
FYE15FC
$2,790
$2,869
$2,780
$218
$238
Net Income
$192
(1)
$194
Net Cash
Flow Before
Financing
$162 (3)
$150
$240
(2)
$138
FYE15 Forecast
Expected to Be
On or Ahead of
Business Plan
$138
13
Pink Floyd
$9
Garth Brooks
$10
AC/DC
$22
$12
T.I.
$6
Fifth Harmony
$3
Usher
$7
Tamar Braxton
$4
Miguel
$6
Carrie Underwood
$8
Susan Boyle
$5
Future
$3
$12
Jack White
$4
Sia
$8
Pitbull
$1
George Ezra
$6
Barbra Streisand
$5
Foo Fighters
$16
Pharrell Williams
$14
MAGIC!
$8
Kenny Chesney
$8
A$AP Rocky
$6
$3
Chris Brown
$11
NOW 89 (UK)
$20
John Legend
Shakira
$5
Kasabian (UK)
$5
Michael Jackson
$22
Beyonc
$8
NOW 87 (UK)
$13
NOW 88 (UK)
Miley Cyrus
$4
Miranda Lambert
Carryover
1st Quarter
$9
$9
$13
Train
$7
2nd Quarter
$9
Il Divo (UK)
Olly Murs (UK)
$4
$12
Jamie Foxx
$4
3rd Quarter
$45
Kesha
Sara Bareilles
Adele
$20
Meghan Trainor
Kelly Clarkson
$7
$11
Alicia Keys
$7
Rita Ora
$3
J. Cole
$8
Maxwell
$4
Andre 3000
$5
Future
$3
4th Quarter
19
$2
$5
$2
Ciara
John Mayer
Karmin
Miley Cyrus
Matre Gims (FRA)
Christina Aguilera
$3
$3
$3
$11
$3
$4 14
Mid-Range Plan
Agenda
Executive Summary
1H 2014
B/(W)
$571
$482
-15.6%
$1,076
$956
-11.2%
Subscriptions (Paid)
151
204
+35.1%
Streaming (Ad-Supported)
105
165
+57.1%
Digital Radio
267
323
+21.0%
26
17
-34.6%
$1,625
$1,665
+2.5%
99
88
-11.1%
$2,295
$2,235
-2.6%
Downloads
Other
Total Digital
Sync
Total U.S. Industry
7%
4%
3%
1%
1%
-4%
-5%
-7%
-6%
-11%
-13%
-14%
-14%
-16%
-17%
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
2013
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
-15%
-14%
-15%
-17%
May
2014
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Fiscal 15
Budget
Assumption
17
48.2
11.5
Paid Subscriptions
Active Users
7.0
1.0
6.0
12.0
3.0
31.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
5.0
Jun 2012
15.0
8.9
32.9
+26%
Aug From Jan
(11.5M Paid
Subscriptions)
9.1
8.2
36.7
4.0
11.0
9.0
16.8
22.1
23.8
Jan 2014
Aug 2014
71.1
76.4
54.5
36.1
21.0
10.0
QE Jun 2009
QE Jun 2010
QE Jun 2011
QE Jun 2012
QE Jun 2013
QE Jun 2014
18
Actual
Forecast
-1.3%
$11.0
-4.4%
-2.7%
-0.8%
+3.6%
$10.5
$10.3
$10.1
$10.6
$5.9
$6.4
$5.7
$5.3
Digital
Physical
Total
FYE14
+8%
-10%
-1%
$4.6
$3.9
$7.1
$8.2
$3.0
$2.4
FYE15
FYE16
FYE17
MRP
MRP
+4% FYE15BP
+8% Prior
+12% Prior
+12%
+9%
+12%
MRP
MRP
-13% FYE15BP
-16% Prior
-21% Prior
-18%
-16%
-20%
-4%
-3%
-1%
FYE18
+15%
-23%
+4%
19
$5.9
$3.0
$2.9
FYE15
Forecast
$6.4
$3.4
$3.0
Total
CAGR
$8.2
+11%
$4.7
Intl
CAGR
$7.1
$3.9
+16%
$3.2
U.S.
CAGR
$3.5
+6%
FYE16
FYE17
FYE18
Mid-Range Planning Period
20
2%
7%
11%
1%
7%
7%
7%
13%
15%
14%
Other
27%
37%
Digital Radio
48%
59%
Video
40%
20%
0%
Audio Subs/Streaming
52%
Downloads
41%
21%
FYE16MRP
FYE16MRP
FYE17MRP
FYE17MRP
FYE18MRP
FYE18MRP
CAGR
$3,091
$2,606
$2,132
$1,705
-18%
1,614
2,372
3,416
4,782
+44%
Video
661
860
1,033
1,140
+20%
Digital Radio
412
468
513
538
+9%
Other
137
68
17
-69%
Total
$5,915
$6,374
$7,111
$8,169
+11%
Downloads
Audio Subs/Streaming
FYE15FC
FYE15FC
30%
21
Mid-Range Plan
Agenda
Executive Summary
Indies
EMI Acquired
EMI
PLG
NOW!
Organic
2013
22.6%
+0.2%
+2.3%
25.1%
30.6%
+7.8%
-3.4%
35.0%
15.4%
+2.3%
-3.1%
14.6%
10.3%
21.1%
+4.2%
25.3%
Competitors Have Been Aggressive In Their Investment Strategies Over the Last Few Years
Source: IFPI For 2008 Through Proforma 2012. 2013 Based On Internal Estimates.
23
35.0%
25.1%
14.6%
Growth
Rank From 2012
U.S.
UK
Germany
France
Australia/NZ
Canada
ROW (incl. SA)
Asia (excl. Japan)
Latin America
WW (excl. Japan)
39.2%
32.2%
33.1%
32.5%
44.0%
42.0%
32.8%
16.2%
33.2%
35.0%
28.5%
23.9%
22.2%
22.0%
25.9%
21.6%
22.8%
12.2%
32.5%
25.1%
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
+0.5%
+2.7%
+0.9%
+4.3%
+0.2%
+0.3%
+2.1%
+0.6%
+0.5%
+1.2%
17.6%
15.1%
9.9%
14.5%
14.5%
14.5%
14.5%
7.6%
12.2%
14.6%
Includes SMEJ
$5,467
$3,625
$644
SMEJ $774
$2,526
$414
$275
SMEJ $80
Digital
$2,251
Revenues EBITDA
ROS
12%
Digital
$1,273
(SME Only)
Digital
$1,090
Revenues EBITDA
Revenues EBITDA
11%
Revenues & EBITDA Amounts Shown for Comparative Purposes; Adjusted for One-Time and Other Items
UNI, SME & WMG 12 Months Ended June 30, 2014
UNI Includes EMI Acquisition From September 28, 2012; WMG Includes Parlophone Acquisition From July 1, 2013
25
Mid-Range Plan
Agenda
Executive Summary
Grow Market
Share
Expand and
Grow Digital
Revenue
Models
Maximize
Results
Across All
Our
International
Operations
Maximize
Opportunities
With Broader
Rights and
New Business
Reduce and
Control
Costs/
Maximize
Efficiencies
Aggressively
Pursue
One Sony
Initiatives
27
25.85%
25.60%
25.35%
25.10%
+0.25%
pts
+0.25%
pts
+0.25%
pts
Flat Growth
FYE15
Forecast
FYE16
FYE17
FYE18
Grow Market
Share
Core Labels
Classical
Catalog Artists
CMG
Indie Services
Salaam
Remi
ASTRONAUTS
WANTED
Wolfgang
Boss
Creative Partnerships
Asia
Latin Am.
Europe
Germany
France
Japan
Dr
Luke
Exclusive Producer
Local Talent Development
29
UK
Alex &
Sierra
Hozier
Rita
Ora
London
Grammar
MKTO
sgeir
Zhu
Kid
Ink
MAGIC!
Bleachers
Sia
Tinashe
Pentatonix
G-Eazy
A Great
Big World
Fifth
Harmony
Kat
Dahlia
Meghan
Trainor
Kongos
Bobby
Shmurda
Future
Tyler
Farr
Casey
James
Steven Lee
Olsen
The
Henningsens
Jerrod
Neimann
Swon
Brothers
Josh
Dorr
George
Ezra
Laura
Doggett
Nothing
But Thieves
Lonely
The Brave
Rag N
Bone Man
Madeon
Jamie
Joseph
Ella
Henderson
Collabro
Jack
Pack
Etta
Bond
Marlon
Roudette
Ady
Suleiman
Kid
Arkade
Targeting
to Achieve
35% or
Greater
Share of
New Artist
Breakouts
During
MRP Period
Strengthen Our Focus On Country and EDM Genre. Recent Achievements Include Signing of
Garth Brooks, New JV Deal With Disruptor Records and Continued Alignment With Ultra.
30
FYE08
New
Music
63%
Catalog
37%
FYE14
New
Music
59%
Catalog
41%
Total
CAGR
$1.9 B
$1.6 B
$1.3 B
$1.3 B
$1.4 B
$1,060
$868
$577
Expand and
Grow Digital
Revenue
Models
+13%
Considers Market &
Market Share Growth
Downloads
Streaming (Paid & Ad-Supported)
Video
Digital Radio
Other
Total
$636
$686
$701
FYE14A
$817
250
85
69
42
$1,263
FYE15FC
$704
375
120
90
26
$1,315
Intl
CAGR
+19%
$728
$706
$752
$830
U.S.
CAGR
+7%
CAGR
-17%
45%
22%
11%
-68%
13%
Estimated $0.6B Growth In Digital Revenues Over the MRP Period Driven by
Significant Growth In Paid Streaming
An Overall 44% Growth From FYE15
32
AD-SUPPORTED
WITHIN SUBSCRIBTION SERVICES
2013A
2014FC
DIGITAL VIDEO
1BN monthly users
2.4BN music hours / month
62b
581m
844m
1,070m
588m
2006
501m
2007
428m
2008
382m
2009
1,259m
31b
20b
326m
331m
2010
2011
DIGITAL RADIO
OTHER CONSUMPTION
316m
289m
2012
2013
$70
PAID SUBSCRIPTION
$48
DOWNLOADS
$19
$4
PHYSICAL
AD-SUPPORTED
35
Maximize
Results Across
All Our
International
Operations
Artist
Market
Continue to Aggressively
Pursue Opportunities to
Increase Repertoire Base
(Organically and by Acquisition)
Expansion
Aggressively Pursue
Opportunities to Exploit New
and Emerging Markets to
Secure No. 1 Position
38
Negotiation with
COLDPLAY
Negotiation with
STROMAE
Possible Acquisition
with SME Classics:
HARMONIA MUNDI
Possible Label
Acquisition:
NAIVE
Negotiation with
LUIS MIGUEL
Negotiation with
ENRIQUE IGLESIAS
Exploring Acquisition
of TRADEMARK:
BRAVO
Label Acquisition:
PHONAG/TBA
Acquisition targets:
YMC /
CHROME/YEDANG
Exploring
Acquisition
with GDB:
BELIEVE
Negotiation with
major artist
KHALIL
Acquisition target:
RED FOO
Expanding Regionally
LATIN AMERICA
PERU:
Grow and exploit growing Peruvian
market through newly opened office
in Lima
CUBA:
Explore market entry.
Potential Acquisition of Catalogs, e.g.
EGREM for worldwide exploitation.
BRAZIL:
Further Explore Digital Opportunities
Explore opportunities around
Olympic Games 2016
TICKETING
Explore and build Ticketing Business
in Latin America
Overall Goal for Region
To Grow Profits by 40% to $50m
ASIA
CHINA:
Expand Digital Business through
China Mobile Video deal and direct
online license deal with either
Tencent, Alibaba or CMC.
Increase Repertoire through
signing of major artists KHALIL from
Gold Typhoon (recent Warner
Acquisition) and MO MO WU from
Indie Dream China.
INDIA:
Grow Digital Business with new DSP
launches, e.g. Spotify, Google
Hungama, Eros, Rdio, Boinc (Sri
Lanka), Rockville (Pakistan).
Targeting Catalogue acquisitions:
Crescendo & Magnasound.
VIETNAM:
Explore market opportunities,
possibly open office
Passive
Artist Rights
Participation
($ In Millions)
Other
Artist
Management
Merchandising
Brands/
Sponsorship
($33M Profit
From Syco TV JV)
$23
$26
$11
$6
Total
$261
$37
Live
Maximize
Opportunities
With Broader
Rights and New
Business
$74
$84
TV/Film
Artist Services
FYE14
Actual
Reduce and
Control Costs/
Maximize
Efficiencies
9.4%
9.5%
8.6%
FYE15
Forecast
FYE16
FYE17
FYE18
Mid-Range Planning Period
42
Overhead/
Headcount
2005
FYE15FC
FYE16
FYE17
FYE18
Mid-Range Planning Period
Overhead and Headcount Excludes Increases From Investment In Growth Areas and Emerging Markets
$560M
Marketing
Costs
15.3%
2005
$350M
15.3%
FYE15FC
$660M
Supply Chain
(Physical + Digital)
19.7%
% OF
NET SALES
2005
$280M
FYE16
FYE17
FYE18
Mid-Range Planning Period
12.4%
FYE15FC
FYE16
FYE17
FYE18
Mid-Range Planning Period
43
Japan
50%
25%
ELECTRONICS
Aggressively
Pursue
One Sony
Initiatives
44
ELECTRONICS
SME Is Currently Exploring Numerous Hi-Res Audio, 4K, and SOMC collaborations:
- Creating A Global Hi-Res Album Bundle For Xperia, and Potential Hi-Res Offering On Xperia Through
Sprint In the U.S. In Q1 2015
- Working With the U.S. Hi-Res Audio Team On An October Hi-Res Walkman Listening Event
- Shooting Yahoo Live! Music Events In 4K to Build Up SELs 4K Library
- A 12-18 Month Partnership Between Sony and the Foo Fighters Which Would Integrate Hi-Res Audio,
4K and Potentially Other Divisions Around the Artists 2015 U.S. and Global Tour Schedule
- Working With SOMC to Provide On An Emerging Artist Platform and A Recurring Offer/Streaming
Solution For Xperia Users, Allowing the Customer to Stream A Selection of Music Every Month
- Successful Sony Jive Music App to Be Launched In Indonesia and Other Territories
45
Mid-Range Plan
Agenda
Executive Summary
Local
International
Repertoire
Columbia
25%
UK Syco
UK
(ex. Syco)
Nashville
Epic
75%
Major
Repertoire
Centers
RCA
Talent From Major Repertoire Centers (Primarily English Language) Account For 75% of Global
Profits Therefore Critical to Success
Talent From Local Repertoire Centers Account for 25% of Global Profits Therefore Also An
Important Part of Our Business and Potential Growth Area, Particularly In Emerging Markets
47
60%
of
Revenues
Talent
Investment
$173M
Talent
Investment
Talent
Investment
Talent
Investment
New
Music
New
Music
New
Music
New
Music
New
Music
New Catalog
New Catalog
New Catalog
New Catalog
New Catalog
New Catalog
40%
of
Revenues
Existing
Catalog
Existing
Catalog
Existing
Catalog
Existing
Catalog
Existing
Catalog
FYE15
FYE16
FYE17
FYE18
FYE19
Catalog Highly Profitable Due to Upfront Investment In New Music (Talent and Marketing)
Reduction In Talent Spending Will Have A Positive Short-Term Impact On Profit, But A Negative Medium
and Long-Term Impact On Profit and Valuation
Reduced Talent Spend Would Negatively Impact SME Market Share
New Releases Become Part of Catalog 18 Months After Release
48
SME Global
Owned &
Distributed
Market Share
Source: IFPI
25.1%
24.0%
+3.1% pts
Over 2
Years
22.0%
CY11
CY12
CY13
$630M
SME PP&B
Revenues For
FYE14 $166M
$751M
5.2 PPB%
of Industry
6.2 PPB%
of Industry
2010
2013
49
Physical
$4.6
44% $10.5B
Digital Breakdown
Subscriptions
$1.6
27%
Digital
$5.9
56%
Downloads
$3.1
52%
Digital
Breakdown
$5.9B
Video
$0.7
11%
Digital Radio
Ringtones/ $0.4
7%
Other
$0.1
3%
633
727
769
AdSupported
Stream
Digital
Radio
408
109
Paid
Subscription
Stream
AdSupported
Stream
AdSupported
Stream
50
U.S.
Physical Projection of
-20% CAGR of 3 Yr MRP
Other
25%
Anconnect/
Anderson
30%
TransWorld
4%
Amazon
14%
Target
13%
Alliance
14%
Top 5 = 75%
Digital
Digital Projection of
+11% CAGR of 3 Yr MRP
53%
Streaming
11%
Downloads,
Streaming
Downloads
4%
3%
Radio
5%
Streaming
2%
Video
4%
Streaming
2%
Video
4%
Streaming
1%
Top 10 = 89%
Concentration of Major
Accounts to Be Spread Across A
Greater Number of Partners Is
Dependent On Partners Ability
to Achieve Financially Profitable
Business Models (See Spotify
and Pandora Example On Next
Page)
51
Pandora First
Launched In Jan 2000
52
49%
51%
FYE14A
54%
46%
FYE15FC
61%
39%
Tracks
70%
30%
77%
23%
Mid-Range Plan
Agenda
Executive Summary
Key Assumptions
Forecast
FYE15
Comments
Physical Market
-13%
-16%
-21%
-23%
Digital Market
+4%
+8%
+12%
+15%
Market Share
25.10%
To
25.35%
To
25.60%
To
25.85%
Talent Costs
$173M
Flat
$180M
$210M
Inflation
-$20M
$20M
$20M
$20M
Savings
$20M
$15M
$15M
$15M
Real Estate
Flat
Flat
$12M
Flat
Investment In Emerging
Markets & Other Growth
Areas
$0M
$0M
$6M
$20M
-$23M
$20M
23
$20M
$20M
Restructuring
55
Mid-Range Plan
Agenda
Executive Summary
Revenues
Operating Income
Prior MRP
$2,766
$2,831
$2,904
Forecast/MRP
$2,780
$2,735
$2,763
Inc/(Dec)
$14
($96)
($141)
Prior MRP
$230
$240
$250
Forecast/MRP
$240
$250
$260
Improvement
$10
$10
$10
Prior MRP
$130
$130
$135
Forecast/MRP
$138
$140*
$150
Improvement
$8
$10
$15
$2,896
$275
$160
MRP Op. Income Favorable From Prior Year MRP Despite Declining Revenues
* Assumes No Capital Payment Associated With NY Headquarters Relocation
57
$2,768
$2,780
$2,735
$2,763
$2,896
Operating Income
$240
$240
$250
$260
$275
Margin %
8.7%
8.6%
9.1%
9.4%
9.5%
Net Income
$138
$138
$150
$158
$168
$285
$292
$320
$330
$344
$138
$138
$140
$150
$160
Return On Equity
11.5%
11.3%
11.3%
11.2%
11.5%
EBITDA
$348
$341
$350
$367
$389
EBITDA Margins
12.6%
12.3%
12.8%
13.3%
13.4%
Revenues
MRP Reflects
Continued
Improvement In
Operating Income
Margins
58
Reconciliation
FYE14 Actual to FYE15 Forecast ($ In Millions)
Revenues
$2,869
+$21
Breakage +21
+$125
+$34
+$22
-$16
-$143
+$12
$2,780
Other
(New Business)
FYE15
4Q
Actual
Forecast
-$33
-$112
FYE14
FYE14
Actual
Actual
Physical Mkt
Decline -13%
Audio Subs/
Streaming
+50%
Downloads
-14%
Digital Video
+40%
Digital Radio
+32%
Other
-39%
Syco
Operating Income
Total Digital $31
$238
+$24
Breakage +14
Beats Gain +7
Other Gains +3
+$76
+$20
+$18
-$9
-$35
+$10
-$20
-$20
Orchard +6
NOW! +4
VEVO
Equity
Income
+$12
OH Inflation
OH Savings
Talent
New Business
$240
-20
+20
Flat
+12
-$74
FYE14
FYE15
Actual
Physical Mkt
Decline -13%
Downloads
-14%
Audio Subs/
Streaming
+50%
Digital Video
+40%
Digital Radio
+32%
Other
-39%
Syco
Costs/
Other/New
Business
FYE15
FYE16
Forecast
59
Reconciliation
FYE15 Forecast to FYE16 Target ($ In Millions)
Revenues
$2,780
$2,759
-$21
+$25
$2,735
Market Share
Gain +0.25% pt
FYE16
4QTarget
Actual
+$13
+$37
+$176
-$13
Breakage -21
-$151
-$111
FYE15
FYE14
Forecast
Actual
Adj. FYE15
Forecast
Physical Mkt
Decline -16%
Downloads
-16%
Audio Subs/
Streaming
+47%
Digital Video
+31%
Digital Radio
+14%
Other
-50%
Operating Income
Total Digital $64
$240
$216
+$105
+$20
-$44
Adj. FYE15
Forecast
Physical Mkt
Decline -16%
Downloads
-16%
$250
-$64
FYE15
FYE14
Forecast
Actual
+$2
OH Inflation
-20
OH Savings
+15
Other Cost Savings +6
-$8
-$24
Breakage
-14
Beats Gain -7
Other Gains -3
+$12
+$11
Audio Subs/
Streaming
+47%
Digital Video
+31%
Digital Radio
+14%
Other
-50%
Market Share
Gain +0.25% pt
Costs
FYE16
4Q
Target
Actual
60
Reconciliation
FYE16 Target to FYE17 Target ($ In Millions)
Revenues
$2,735
+$245
+$33
+$10
+$27
$2,763
4QTarget
Actual
-$10
-$167
-$110
FYE16
FYE14
Actual
Target
Physical Mkt
Decline -21%
Downloads
-18%
Audio Subs/
Streaming
+44%
Digital Video
+21%
Digital Radio
+10%
Other
-75%
FYE17
Operating Income
Total Digital $82
+$136
$250
+$12
+$9
-$7
-$54
-$70
FYE16
FYE15
Target
+$14
$260
-$12
-$6
-$7
Inflation -20
Savings +15
Other
-75%
-$5
Market
Share Gain
+0.25% pt
Real Estate
Emerging
Market
Investment
Talent
Investment
Costs
FYE17
FYE16
Target
61
Reconciliation
FYE17 Target to FYE18 Target ($ In Millions)
Revenues
$2,763
+$6
+$21
+$325
+$24
$2,896
FYE18
Target
4Q Actual
-$2
-$142
-$99
FYE17
Target
FYE14 Actual
Physical Mkt
Decline -23%
Audio Subs/
Streaming
+40%
Downloads
-20%
Operating Income
Digital Video
+11%
+$7
+$13
+$4
$260
-$1
-$48
Downloads
-20%
-$20
$275
-$30
Audio Subs/
Streaming
+40%
Digital Video
+11%
Digital Radio
+5%
Other
-75%
-$9
Inflation -20
Savings +15
Other
-4
-$63
Physical Mkt
Decline -23%
Other
-75%
+$162
FYE17
FYE15
Target
Digital Radio
+5%
Market
Share Gain
+0.25% pt
Emerging
Market
Investment
Talent
Investment
Costs/Other
FYE18
FYE16
Target
62
Actual
Forecast
FYE14
FYE15
FYE16
FYE17
FYE18
$215
$215
$225
$235
$250
Depreciation/Amortization
83
78
80
87
94
Working Capital
(2)
(1)
15
$320
$330
$344
$296
$292
Capital Expenditures
(22)
(25)
(29)
(26)
(25)
Strategic Investments
(67)
(60)
(60)
(60)
(60)
$231
$244
$259
29 (1)
1
$208
$236
(2)
(34)
(70)
(75)
(77)
(81)
(24)
(28)
(16)
(17)
(18)
$150
1) Includes Proceeds From Sale of Beats ($17M) and Sale of Nashville Building ($12M)
2) Includes Receipt From SCA On Prior Year Taxes
3) FYE14 and FYE15 Reflects Dividends Paid to Simon Cowell and Benefit of X Factor U.S.
$138
$140
$150
$160
63
Mid-Range Plan
Agenda
Executive Summary
MRP Assumes 44% CAGR for Streaming and 20% CAGR for Video
Physical Decline Could Accelerate and Cause Accounts to Exiting Music Cliff Event
Key Superstar Talent Assumed to Perform Consistent With Historical Sales and No Additional
Advance Exposure
JVs Expected to Perform Develop New Talent and Turn Profitable
MRP Assumes $15M Savings Initiatives Per Year ($45M Total) All Currently Unidentified
Mitigated by Restructuring Provisions
MRP Assumes $20M Per Year For Funding of VEVO Operations Which Is Only the Current Run Rate
Drives Up Costs For Key Artist Renegotiations and New Artist Signings
Pricing Decisions Will Force Us to Follow Suit to Maintain Sales and Positioning
Negative Impacts For Recorded Music From By-Product of DOJ Review of Publisher Issues
Contingency Plans
to Mitigate Risks
Would Include:
Deezer (5%)
VEVO (37.7%)
Recognition of Breakage
Unearned Advances
Minimum Guarantees
Flats From Digital Service Providers
66
Lower Case
CAGR
$289
$273
$259
$275
-16%
Base Case
CAGR
-20%
$260
Higher Case
$263
$250
CAGR
-24%
$248
$240
$241
FYE15
Forecast
FYE16
FYE17
Mid-Range Planning Period
FYE18
67
Higher Case
$395
CAGR
+15%
$333
Base Case
$284
$240
$250
$260
$275
+11%
$216
Lower Case
$190
CAGR
$164
FYE15
Forecast
FYE16
CAGR
FYE17
Mid-Range Planning Period
+7%
FYE18
68
Mid-Range Plan
Agenda
Executive Summary
Summary of Potentially Major Strategic Investments Individually Over $25M and Not Included In the MRP Requiring Additional Capital
Investment
Opportunity
Investment Type
Strategic
Priority
Acquisition of
German Compilation
Brand
MEDIUM
Acquisition of 50%
of Syco JV
$3M
$5M
$4M
$3M
(6 Years)
HIGH
FYE15
or
FYE16
$100M+
$10M
$20M
$10M
$15M
HIGH
FYE15
or
FYE16
$175M $300M
$15M
$20M
$20M
$25M
FYE15
or
FYE16
$40M
(Not All
Upfront)
$2M
$6M
$2M
$4M
(2 Years)
Acquisition of
Remaining 49%
Interest
COLDPLAY
$30M
Annual
Impact
Thereafter
$100M+
(Taylor Swift)
Operating Talent
Investment In
Global Rock Band
FYE15
FYE15
or
FYE16
HIGH
Acquisition of
Country Music
Label/Key Executive
Strategic Rationale
~2% Local Market Share
EBIT Accretive
Potential
Potential Investment
Timing
$s
MEDIUM
70
Investment Type
Strategic
Priority
Acquisition of 80%
Shares In Kontor
Records
MEDIUM
Acquisition of Cuban
Record Label
MEDIUM
Acquisition of Key
European Digital
Distribution Company
$52M
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
FYE15 FYE16
~$25M
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
MEDIUM
FYE16 FYE18
$75M $150M
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
MEDIUM
FYE16 FYE18
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
FYE16 FYE18
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
FYE16 FYE19
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
HIGH
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
HIGH
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
MEDIUM
Buyout of Patrick
Moxeys Interest In JV
At End of Term
MEDIUM
Operating Talent
Investment In Global
Superstars
Potential
Investment
$s
FYE15 FYE16
Continued Operational
Funding of VEVO JV
BEYONC
/Others
Strategic Rationale
Strengthens Position of SME In Germany
Increases Digital Market Share In
Germany by 7%-8% pts
Strong Partner In Dance Music
Potential
Timing
71
Bravo
Strategic
Priority
MEDIUM
The BRAVO Hits compilation series is by far the biggest selling compilations product series
in GSA
Until 2013, SME GSA was part of a JV with UMG licensing the brand from Bauer Verlag
Given their market power after EMI acquisition, UMG pushed SME out of the JV contract
and licensed directly from Bauer, resulting in profit loss of $4.6M for SME
Acquiring the trademark gives SME chance to get back into this important compilation brand
Bravo represents in total 2% of market share
In acquiring brand and then forming a JV with UMG would increase SMEs Market share by
roughly 1% (and reduce UMGs respectively)
Estimated cost
~$30M
Timing
F2015
Expected IRR
~11-12%
Incremental
Profit
72
Strategic
Priority
HIGH
Addition of Big Machine label to our Country division and Taylor Swift, the top female
country artist, to our roster
Big Machine founder/owner, Scott Borchetta potential Sony executive
Synergy opportunities in integrating Big Machine with Sony Music Nashville
Position Sony Music as leader in Country music genre
Estimated cost
$100M+
Timing
F2015 - F2016
Expected IRR
TBD
73
Syco
Strategic
Priority
Key Initiative
HIGH
$95.8M
Syco Artists
$99.0M
$62.2M
$61.7M
$48.7M
Revenues
Profit
FYE12ACT
$67.8M
$42.8M
Revenues
Profit
FYE13ACT
Revenues
Profit
FYE14ACT
Revenues
Profit
FYE15FC
74
The Orchard
Strategic
Priority
HIGH
Current equity investment with 51% non-controlling ownership stake. Negotiating with
Dimensional about potential purchase of remaining 49% interest.
Overview/
Long Term
Strategic Value
SMEs investment in the Orchard has created significant value since Mar12. Our $25M cash
investment has generated $14M of equity income to date for a net investment value of
$38M. Orchards CY14 EBITDA is forecasted to be $25M.
Purchase of remaining 49% of the Orchard gives SME full control and allows us to consolidate
Orchard financials. Based upon Orchards 3 year MRP, EBITDA is projected to grow from
$25M to $47M by CY17.
Given current net investment value on our books, purchase of the remainder of company at a
valuation of $350M-$660M could result in significant one time P&L gain due ($144M+)
Preserve Market Share: Based on our agreement we have the last right to match any binding
third party offer to buy Orchard. If we elect not to buy the remaining 49% at the third party
valuation we would be forced to sell our 51% interest. This would result in a loss of over 3.5%
pts in global digital market share.
Estimated cost
$175M - $330M (based on overall valuation of $350M - $660M) Based on offer received from
3rd party
Any deal could include significant earn out component
Timing
3 - 12 months
Current Status
Given current gap between Dimensional and SMEs valuation, Dimensional will explore
potential third party interest to acquire its 49% share.
SME will make a decision on exercising its right to match at the appropriate time
Expected IRR
10%-20%
75
Coldplay
Strategic
Priority
MEDIUM
Signing iconic band Coldplay (currently have one album remaining with WMG) in a
distribution deal & license agreement
Overview/
Long Term
Strategic Value
Estimated cost
Timing
Expected IRR
~20%
Profit Impact
Will increase our artist roster with an iconic band, long-term deal with 3 firm albums,
creation of catalog product
76
Strategic
Priority
MEDIUM
Acquisition of 80% shares in Kontor Records, a local German EDM music label
Overview/
Long Term
Strategic Value
Acquisition in artists, repertoire and brands which immediately increases local digital market
share by 7%-8% pts and strengthen significantly the position of SME in GSA
Acquisition of a very strong partner in dance music with existing brands and license income
Strong digital repertoire securing the future business
Estimated cost
Investment for SME Germany: purchase price = 52M USD for 80% of Kontor Records shares
Payment in cash, due dates to be discussed
Timing
Expected IRR
77
Strategic
Priority
MEDIUM
Cuban music is a very important genre in the Latin region and is so far not exploited
Internationally
Estimated cost
Timing
Expected IRR
N/A
Acquisition of this important Cuban music catalog would put us ahead of the game and
ensure Sony Music holds a significant market share in this important genre
78
Believe Digital
Strategic
Priority
MEDIUM
While The Orchards organic growth prospects continue to be strong, opportunity exists to
achieve synergistic value through this acquisition (as evidenced by the integration of The
Orchard & IODA)
International strength presents a much more attractive acquisition target as it completes the
Orchards global market share profile
Believes distribution fees are in line with the Orchard which should enable a high label
retention rate
Estimated cost
Timing
1-3 years
Expected IRR
10%-20%
79
Strategic
Priority
MEDIUM
Longstanding distribution relationship with proven track record. Creator of popular Kidz Bop
franchise, as well as a diverse artist roster specializing in metal, rock. R&T had 0.5% U.S.
market share CY13
Depending on deal structure, potentially allows us to consolidate Razor & Tie financials (FY14
recorded music revenue through SME of $20M + additional ancillary revenue streams)
R&Ts specialty compliments SMEs catalogue and distribution business
Estimated cost
TBD
Timing
1-3 years
Expected IRR
TBD
80
Kemosabe/Dr. Luke
Strategic
Priority
MEDIUM
$33.8M
$7.6M
Juicy J
Miley Cyrus
Smurfs OST
Kesha
$6.5M
Profit
Revenues
Profit
JV Year 1
JV Year 2
Kesha
G.R.L.
Sophia Black
Becky G
Miley Cyrus
Juicy J
Dr. Luke
-$2.3M
Revenues
Elliphant
Lil Bibby
J Mike
Doja Cat
Miley Cyrus
Yelle
Young Yawn
Saint Johns
Rock City
Dallas K
Smurfs OST
Miley Cyrus
G.R.L.
Becky G
81
Strategic
Priority
MEDIUM
Sony Acquired 50% Interest In An Established Label, Ultra, In December 2012 Increasing Sonys
Footprint In EM (Dance)
- An Established and Profitable Label Therefore No Startup Period Immediate Profit
Patrick Moxey Also Serves As Head of EM For Sony Music International
- Providing Support to All International Affiliates In EM A&R and Marketing Activities
- Several International EM Acts Have Been Signed, Including Mr. Probz, With Patricks Oversight and Format Credibility
Potential Buyout
- Contractual Option to Buy Patrick Moxeys Interest In JV At End of Term (December 2017)
- Potential Timing F17 or F18
- Potential Purchase Price and IRR TBD
$28.8M
$23.0M
$7.0M
Revenues
Profit
Sonys Share
$3.5M
P. Moxey Share $1.0M
$4.5M
Revenues
2012 (Pre-JV)
Profit
JV Year 1
Ultras Yr 1 Profits Declined From Historical Level Due to Fewer Big Hits Than Prior Years
- Deals Expired and Not Renewed On A Few Established Acts
- Universal Aggressively Overpaid For Several EM Acts After Losing Bid to Acquire Ultra
Mr. Probz
Steve Aoki
Benny Benassi
Kaskade
Carnage
Project 46
82
VEVO
Strategic
Priority
HIGH
VEVOs business performing better than forecasted with revenue growing 57% yoy in 1st half
of year. SMEs license revenue from VEVO is forecasted at $85M for FYE15. Overall, net
income to SME from VEVO is positive as net profits from content fees after artist royalties is
forecasted to exceed SMEs equity losses by $31M for FYE15.
While VEVO is expected to continue to experience positive revenue growth, VEVO will
require additional capital funding to continue to expand their business, cover working capital
and other operational cash expenses over the MRP period. Growth in VEVO can be achieved
through investment in original content, launch of a subscription service and International
expansion.
Majority Shareholders (Universal / SME) believe significant value growth can be achieved and
will therefore continue to invest in building of the business. As a result, no outside
investment from 3rd parties is likely during Mid Range Plan.
Exception could be made for investment by Warner Music if antitrust requirements can be
met
Estimated cost
$60M of funding
Timing
Expected IRR
N/A
83
October 8, 2014