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You are on page 1of 6

Related Computer Demonstrations (just check these out, theres nothing to do for

the homework):

Z table: http://davidmlane.com/hyperstat/z_table.html

Part I: Normal Probability Exercises

The lifetime of a certain brand of tires is approximately normally distributed, with a mean of

45,000 miles and a standard deviation of 2,500 miles. The tires carry a warranty for 40,000

miles. Answer the question by computing the requested values in three ways in each of parts

a-c: by the rough approximation of the known area under a symmetric distribution, the

normal table in your text, and using Excel normal functions.

a) What proportion of the tires will fail before the warranty expires?

b) What proportion of the tires will fail after the warranty expires but before they have

lasted for 41,000 miles?

c) What should the warranty be if the company wants no more than a 1% failure rate?

a)

(1) Area using symmetrical distribution

Graph for a normally distributed curve is as follow:

As mentioned in question, warranty of the tires is 40,000 miles.

(2) Using normal table

x = 40,000

= 45,000

= 2,500

z = -5,000 / 2,500

z= -2

By looking at z-value table for -2, probability comes as 0.0228

Hence, total proportion of area using normal table is 2.28%

By using following mentioned normal distribution function NORM.DIST in excel as follow

=NORM.DIST(40000,45000,2500,1)

Value of the excel function comes as 0.02275

Hence, total proportion of the area calculated using excel function is 2.275%

b)

(1) Area using symmetrical distribution

Graph for a normally distributed curve is as follow:

Area between 41,000 and 42,500 is 40% of total area.

40% of 13.5 is equal to 5.4

Slope of the curve is rising. Hence, approximately reducing the percentage by 1.5%

Therefore, percentage of total area comes out to be 3.9%

As highlighted in graph, area below 40,000 is 2.5% of the total area.

(2) Using normal table

Firstly, calculating area for x = 40,000

x = 40,000

= 45,000

= 2,500

z = -5,000 / 2,500

z= -2

By looking at z-value table for -2, probability comes as 0.0228

Secondly, calculating area for x = 41,000

x = 41,000

= 45,000

= 2,500

z = -4,000 / 2,500

z= -1.6

By looking at z-value table for -1.6, probability comes as 0.0548

Subtracting value calculated with x=40,000 from x=41,000

0.0548 0.0228 = 0.032

Hence, total proportion of area using normal table is 3.20%

(3) Using Excel normal functions

By using following mentioned normal distribution function NORM.DIST in excel as follow

=NORM.DIST(40000,45000,2500,1)

Value of the excel function comes as 0.02275

- (1)

=NORM.DIST(41000,45000,2500,1)

Value of the excel function comes as 0.054799

- (2)

= 0.054799 0.02275

= 0.32049

Hence, total proportion of the area calculated using excel function is 3.20 %

c)

(1) Area using symmetrical distribution

Graph for a normally distributed curve is as follow:

Failure rate for a tire running 40,000 miles is 2.5%

Looking at the graph having a rising slope, we count 39,000 miles as the mileage that will

have less than 1% failure rate.

Per z-score table,

Probability at -2.32 and -2.33 is 0.0102 and 0.0099 respectively.

Hence, we will take average of both of the values to have the nearest correct value

Hence,

= (-2.32 -2.33) / 2

= -2.325

z = -2.325

= 45,000

= 2,500

-5812.5 = x 45,000

x = 39187.5

Hence, total distance covered by tire with less than 1% failure rate is 39187.5 miles

(3) Using Excel normal functions

By using following mentioned normal distribution function NORMINV in excel as follow

=NORM.INV(0.01,45000,2500)

Hence, total distance covered by tire with less than 1% failure rate is 39184.13 miles

Use the NORMDIST function and then fill in the blanks accordingly:

X = value of x

Mean = mean of normal distribution

Standard_dev= standard deviation of normal distribution

Cumulative: only use value of 1 which gives you P(X value of x) [Note: if you use 0, then you will get the

height of the curve for that specific value of x, which isnt the probability]

How to get x values given a Normal probability with Excel:

Use the NORMINV function and then fill in the blanks accordingly:

Probability = the normal probability from the left tail to that value of x [ P(X value of x)]

Mean = mean of normal distribution

Standard_dev= standard deviation of normal distribution

Suggestion: Do the calculations by hand first, then try Excel. This will help you make comparisons to see if

you are getting approximately the correct number with Excel.

Go to the following web address to run the Sampling Distribution Simulation (click the Begin

button): http://www.ruf.rice.edu/%7Elane/stat_sim/sampling_dist/index.html

Before answering the questions below, you might try to figure out the simulation demo

by clicking options

The first distribution is the population distribution that can be normal, uniform,

positively skewed, or customized to what ever distribution you want to make (simply

click on the distribution).

You can simulate one sample at a time (animated sample) or sample several at once

(5; 1,000; 10,000)

Answer the following questions about the simulation (set the third distribution option to

mean):

1. Briefly describe the three distributions that are displayed (ignore the bottom

distribution that is empty by default).

Parent population chart: The parent population chart represents distribution of all the

points in the sample population.

Sample Data chart: Sample data chart represents a chart having random sample of n

number of the total population.

Distribution mean chart: The distribution chart, details on individual functions, such as

mean, median, standard deviation etc. out of the sample data that will be collected in

the sample data chart as selected in chart two.

2. Run the simulation several times using different shapes for the population distribution.

For each shape of the population distribution, vary the sample size in the third

distribution. What do you notice about the shape of the third distribution (the

sampling distribution of the mean) as you change sample size for different shapes of

the population distribution?

The variation in the third distribution chart, sampling distribution of the mean, has the

same shape as that of the parent population chart. This is because the third table has

mean of the sample taken out of the first table, population table.

3. Run the simulation using the custom option for the population simulation and sample

size n=5. Click on the empty distribution to create a custom distribution. Make a

distribution that is roughly symmetric with a mean and median approximately 15 and a

standard deviation any value between 1-1.5 (you dont have to be too exact here,

these are just some guidelines to get a rough idea). Examine the sampling

distribution. Now, change the custom population distribution by adding more

dispersion (standard deviation about 5) but keeping the mean and median about 15

(you can do this by simply adding to the tails). Now examine this sampling

distribution. How do the two resulting sampling distributions compare: which has less

variability and why?

The sampling distribution graph for scenario-1 had all the individual lines all stacked up

closely because the population distribution graph was all arranged up closely too.

The sampling distribution graph for scenario-2 had the sample points distributed over

the graph because the population distribution was also scattered up with some of the

population in the center while other stacked up near the tail.

The sampling distribution in scenario-1 has less variability because the population

distribution is set up pretty closely, and also has less standard deviation too, while the

population distribution in scenario-2 has data scattered all over the graph and has

higher standard deviation too. Hence, sampling distribution for scenario-1 has less

variability.

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