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PROBABILITY FOR BUSINESS

MANAGEMENT SIMPLIFIED

by :
DR. T.K. JAIN
AFTERSCHO☺OL
centre for social entrepreneurship
sivakamu veterinary hospital road
bikaner 334001 rajasthan, india
for PGPSE participants
PGPSE : FREE FOR ALL, OPEN FOR ALL
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5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 1
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WHAT IS EXCLUSIVE
EVENT?

WHEN RESULTS FROM SOME
EXPERIMENT ARE SUCH THAT IF ONE
OUTCOME (EVENT) HAPPENS, OTHERS
ARE IMPOSSIBLE, THEN THEY ARE
CALLED EXCLUSIVE EVENTS. FOR
EXAMPLE, IF YOU TOSS A COIN, YOU
CAN GET EITHER HEAD OR TAIL – NOT
BOTH - THESE ARE EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 2
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WHAT IS PROBABILITY ?

FINDING THE POSSIBILTY OF AN EVENT
OUT OF MANY EQUALLY LIKELY
EVENTS IS CALLED PROBABILITY
THUS IF YOU THROW A COIN, THE
PROBABILITY OF GETTING HEAD IS ½
BECAUSE THERE ARE 2 EQUALLY
LIKELY EVENTS AND ONE HEAD.
5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 3
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What is exhaustive list of events?

All the possibilities are called exhaustive list.
For example : coin has two possibilities : head
and tail – thus these two are exhaustive - there
is no other possibilitiy

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 4
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Q : what is the probability of
getting 2 heads out of 3 tosses of
coins?
First : list down all the possibilities :
H= Head, T=tail
we may have all heads : HHH, we may have all tail : TTT
: 1. HHH 2 TTT 3 HTH 4 THT 5 HHT 6 HTT 7 TTH 8 THH
in simple terms : 2^3 = 8 possibilities : (the formula is options
^ number of trials)
out of these the cases of 2 heads are : 3/8 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 5
centre for social entrepreneurship
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What is the possibility of getting a
difference of 2 when you toss a
dice twice?
Let us list down all the possibilities :
(1,1) (1,2)(13)(1,4)(1,5),(1,6),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3), (2,4), (2,5),
(2,6),(3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6),(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),
(4,4),(4,5),(4,6),(5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6),(6,1),
(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6)
there are total 36 possibilities out of which, 8 cases
involve difference of 2, so answer : 8/36

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 6
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bikaner
What is the chance of picking up a
spade or an ace from a pack of
cards?

There are 13 spade cards. There are 4 ace
cards. Thus there are 13+4 cards = 17 out of
which one ace+spade is included thus we have
16 out of 52 possibilities : 16/52 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 7
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bikaner
What is the probability that a committee
of 7 persons has 5 men and 2 women, it
is to be formed out of 8 men and 5 ladies
We have to pick up 7 persons out of (8+5) = 13 members so the total
possibilities are :
13C7 = 13! / (7! * (13-7)!)
=13*12*11*10*9*8*7*6*5*4*3*2*1/
(7*6*5*4*3*2*1*6*5*4*3*2*1)
=1716
methods of selecting 5 men and 2 women :
8C5 * 5C2 = (8*7*6/3*2*1) (5*4/2*1) = 560
answer = 560/1716 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 8
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A number is picked up out of 25
natural numbers, what is the
probability that it is divisible by 4?

Out of 25 number, there are 6 numbers
divisible by 4 : 4,8,12,16,20,24
thus the probability is : 6/25 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 9
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bikaner
P (A-B) = 1/5 and P(A)=1/3 and
P(B)=1/2, what is the probability
that out of A and B, only B will
happen?
P(A-B) = P(A) (1/3)– (P(A intersection B) =
1/5
thus P(A intersection B)= 1/3-1/5= 2/15
we want P (B-A) = P(B)-P(A intersection B)
=1/2 – 2/15 = 11/30 ans.

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 10
centre for social entrepreneurship
bikaner
A hits 5 out of 9 correct shots and B hits 6
out of 11 correct, what is the probability
that when they try they are able to hit
correct?

First find out the possibility that target is NOT
hit at all : A not hitting : (1-5/9) = 4/9
A = 4/9 and B = 5/11
A *B = 4/9 * 5/11 = 20/99
thus they will hit : 1-20/99 = 79/99 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 11
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8 balls are distributed at random
among 3 boxes, what is the
probability that the first box will get 3
balls?
8 balls can be distributed to 3 boxes in 3^8
manners.
We want first box to have 3 balls, so 8C3, now
we have 5 balls left out which have to be
distributed to remaining 2 boxes : 2^5
answer : (8C3*2^5)/3^8 = 1792/6561 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 12
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Odds in favour of an event is 2:3
and odds against another event is
3:7 ,what is the probability that at
least one of these will happen
First event : happening : 2/5 not happening : 3/5, 2nd event
happen : 7/10 and not happen : 3/10
Find the probability that none of these happen :
3/5 * 3/10 = 9/50
at least one of them will happen is :
1-9/5 =41/50 answer

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