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Price & Time: A Central Bank Blinks
By Kristian Kerr
Published: January 15, 2014

Instruments covered today: EUR/USD, USD/JPY & EUR/CHF
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as
represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of
various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their
corresponding movements can be achieved.
Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Dec

2015

MVA(EUR/USD.C lose,200): 1.30683
MVA(EUR/USD.C lose,20): 1.20195
MVA(EUR/USD.C lose,50): 1.22715
MVA(EUR/USD.C lose,200): 1.30683

1.27010
1.2700

1.2600
1.25840
1.25800
1.2500
1.24670

0.786 1.24587

1.2400
1.23500
1.2300
1.22350
1x2

1.272 1.21583

0.500 1.21330

1.2200
1.21150
1.2100

1.618 1.20466
1.2000
1.19950

1.1900
1.18750
1.1800
1.17550

2.618 1.17240

1.1700
1.16827
1.16350
1.1600

3.141 1.15553
1x3
11/26/2014

12/02

12/04

12/08

12/10

12/12

12/16

12/18

12/22

12/24

12/29

12/31

01/05/2015

01/07

01/09

01/13

01/15

01/17

OBV(EUR/USD): -2,595,638

0
-1,000K
-2,000K

ROC (EUR/USD.C lose, 17): -4.46413
0.00000

-2.50000

FXC M Marketscope © 2015

-5.00000

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
 EUR/USD touched its lowest level since 2003 earlier this morning
 Our near-term trend bias remains lower in the euro while below 1.1880
 The 1.1640 area is now a key near-term pivot with weakness below this level needed trigger the next
serious push lower
 A medium-term turn window is eyed tomorrow, but a more significant turn date is seen later this
week
 A close over 1.1880 would turn us positive on EUR/USD
EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.1880.
Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.1600

*1.1640

1.1680

1.1725

*1.1880

Trading on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained is
provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. DailyFX assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these
materials, and will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance
on such information. DailyFX does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials.
Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

618 111.695 1x2 0.300 115.930 117.00 120.888-50-FOREX Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY Dec 2015 MVA(USD/JPY.7600 1. DailyFX does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information. and may not be suitable for all investors.00 121. or other information contained is provided as general market commentary.212. which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. research.703 120.618 112.500 118.382 117.00 FXC M 1x8 Marketscope © 2015 11/03/2014 11/13 11/19 11/25 12/01 12/05 12/11 12/17 12/23 12/30 01/06/2015 01/12 01/16 Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr      USD/JPY continues to flirt with the 5th square root relationship of the 2014 high at 116. text.897.00 0.fxcm.262 114.35 116.511 113.00 A close below 116.com www.520 0. Any opinions.00 1x3 116.436 119. graphics. analyses. Instrument USD/JPY Support 2 Support 1 Spot Resistance 1 Resistance 2 115.00 0.00 1.382 115.476 1x4 115.500 118.55 *116.493 1x1 121.560 120.35 A near-term trend bias is negative on the rate while below 118.com 1. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice.230 115.200): 107.630 119.298 8x1 0. inaccuracies or omissions in these materials.786 120. any loss of profit.00 119.528 0.610 2x1 0.546 112. including without limitation to.272 114.618 116.527 122.460 118.340 116.00.00 0. and does not constitute investment advice.500 113.00 Trading on margin carries a high level of risk.60 116. Past performance is not indicative of future results.00 0.00 1x1 1x1 0.000 114.330 116. DailyFX assumes no responsibility for errors.00 will turn us positive on USD/JPY USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while below 118. and will not accept liability for any loss or damage.400 117.119 114.dailyfx.953 118.DailyFX Research www.598 116.C lose.618 119.95 *118. news. links or other items contained within these materials. prices.35 is needed to signal the start of a more important push lower A minor turn window is eyed late this week/early next week A close above 118. .

and may not be suitable for all investors. research. any loss of profit. As a general contrarian I am sympathetic to this line of thinking.7600 1. The bubbles we are experiencing in various markets are really just a byproduct of a much bigger bubble in central banking. news. e-mail kkerr@fxcm.fxcm. Any opinions. or other information contained is provided as general market commentary.com 1. inaccuracies or omissions in these materials. text. I don’t think primary market trends can be manipulated indefinitely and like all bubbles I believe this one will eventually crumble. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The primary trend reasserted itself with a vengeance! To contact Kristian.dailyfx. Ask just about anybody about a “freely” trade instrument these days and it will begin with “Well. It seems the various financial collapses over the past 17 years have somehow made people more attuned to the boom-bust cycle of the financial markets. graphics.888-50-FOREX Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/CHF The big debate over the past few years has been about bubbles and whether we are seeing them in bonds. but I think it is totally wrong. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX Trading on margin carries a high level of risk. including without limitation to.DailyFX Research www. which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. The belief in central banks and their ability to manipulate asset market trends at will most certainly has been at or near all-time highs over the past few months and in this bubble I can almost guarantee that nobody is looking for it. and does not constitute investment advice. links or other items contained within these materials. and will not accept liability for any loss or damage. A common response I get from people whenever we engage in this “great debate” is that if everybody is looking for a bubble it probably really isn’t one. I like to think of myself as a pretty die hard member of the “Austrian School”. analyses. I was starting to have my doubts as to when. etc) is doing this…”. Central banks are the only game in town. stocks and various other instruments. DailyFX assumes no responsibility for errors. but today’s 35 big figure fiasco in the Swiss Franc has ironically restored my faith in markets. .212.com. prices.897. DailyFX does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information. the Fed (or ECB or BOJ or PBOC or SNB.com www.