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International Journal of Pavement Engineering
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Highway Development and Management Model (HDM-4):
calibration and adoption for low-volume roads in local
conditions
Dattatraya Tukaram Thube

a

a

National Rural Roads Development Agency, 5th Floor, 15-NBCC Tower, Bhikaji Cama Place,
New Delhi, 110066, India
Published online: 26 Sep 2011.

To cite this article: Dattatraya Tukaram Thube (2013): Highway Development and Management Model (HDM-4): calibration
and adoption for low-volume roads in local conditions, International Journal of Pavement Engineering, 14:1, 50-59
To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10298436.2011.606320

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International Journal of Pavement Engineering
Vol. 14, No. 1, January 2013, 50–59

Highway Development and Management Model (HDM-4): calibration and adoption
for low-volume roads in local conditions
Dattatraya Tukaram Thube*
National Rural Roads Development Agency, 5th Floor, 15-NBCC Tower, Bhikaji Cama Place, New Delhi 110066, India
(Received 13 October 2010; final version received 15 July 2011)
Pavement deterioration models help in predicting the condition of the pavement at a future date. These models form an
important input in a pavement management system for assessing the state of health of pavements and for selecting the optimal
maintenance and rehabilitation strategies. The model HDM-4 developed by the World Bank is used for pavement
management activities and must be adjusted to the specific conditions of the country or region where they are to be used by
adjusting certain calibration factors. In this study, an attempt has been made to calibrate HDM-4 pavement deterioration
models for paved low-volume roads (LVRs) in India by using the ‘window’ monitoring techniques. Pavement condition data
of in-service LVR sections are collected for a 2-year period for model calibration, and the calibrated models are validated. The
result of this study will be a useful input for deciding optimal maintenance strategies (type and timing) for LVRs in India.

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Keywords: HDM-4; pavement deterioration; calibration; LVR

Kvp

Notations
The following notations are used in this paper:
AAE
CVPD
Ha
HDM-4
HDM-III
Ho
IRI
Kcia
Keb
Kgp
Ki
Kpa
Kpi
Kpp
Krst
Kvi

average absolute error
commercial vehicles per day
alternative hypotheses
Highway Development and Management
Model
Highway Design and Maintenance Standard
Model
base hypotheses
International Roughness Index
coefficient for cracking initiation model in
HDM-4
coefficient for edge break progression model
in HDM-4
coefficient for roughness progression model
in HDM-4
coefficient factor for particular distress
coefficient for cracking progression model in
HDM-4
coefficient for pothole initiation model in
HDM-4
coefficient for pothole progression model in
HDM-4
coefficient for rut depth progression model in
HDM-4
coefficient for ravelling initiation model in
HDM-4

*Email: dattadce@rediffmail.com
ISSN 1029-8436 print/ISSN 1477-268X online
q 2013 Taylor & Francis
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10298436.2011.606320
http://www.tandfonline.com

LVR
PMS
R2
RMSE
SNP
SSD
UI
n
oavg
oi
pi
tcal
ta
b1
K min
K max
K incr
1.

coefficient for ravelling progression model in
HDM-4
low-volume roads
pavement management system
Goodness-of-fit measure (coefficient of determination)
root mean square error
adjusted structural number
sum of squared differences
Unevenness Index
number of observations
average value of distress observations
actual value of distress observation i
predicted value of distress observation i
calculated t-value
theoretical t-value at significance level a
slope of regression line
minimum value of calibration factor
maximum value of calibration factor
increment in value of calibration factor

Need and objectives of the study

India’s 3.3 million kilometres of road network is the
second largest network in the world after USA, carrying
about 85% of passenger and 70% of freight traffic. Eightyfive per cent of its total network comprises low-volume
road (LVR; district roads and village roads), which still
has adhocism in their design, construction and maintenance management. LVRs in India are defined as the roads

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International Journal of Pavement Engineering
carrying traffic volume of less than 450 commercial
vehicles per day (CVPD). The major maintenance
activities for LVRs in India have been elaborated by
Indian Roads Congress (IRC 2002). These guidelines are
subjective in nature without basis of any economic
analysis and broadly based on the past experience of field
engineers. Pavement performance data for LVRs are not
available in India, which results in the absence of
pavement deterioration models for this category of roads.
Hence, there is an immediate need for development of
pavement deterioration models for LVRs, which will be
very useful in suggesting scientific- and economic-based
optimal maintenance strategies for the preservation of a
huge network of this category of road network in India.
This scientific-based approach will also be helpful in
optimally utilising the low-maintenance budget provisions
in developing countries like India.
The aim of this study was to propose performance-based
model calibration recommendations and to establish the
most suitable and appropriate calibration factors for different
HDM-4 pavement deterioration models for thin-surfaced
LVRs in different terrains of India. The models have been
adjusted to the plain, rolling and mountainous terrains by
varying the values of the calibration factors for each distress
type so that the model represents the pavements’ real
performance in respective terrains. This will also increase
predictability of the models and the possibility of conducting
an efficient LVR management process. The results of the
proposed performance model calibration study will also be
useful for managing LVR having similar geographical and
environmental conditions in other parts of India as well as in
nearby South-Asian countries.
2.

Background literature

Central Road Research Institute (CRRI 1994) in India has
conducted a long-term research named pavement performance study and developed pavement deterioration
models for National/State highways but LVR was not
included in the study. Chakrabarti et al. (1995) and Roy
et al. (2003) attempted to calibrate Highway Design and
Maintenance Standard Model (HDM-III) and HDM-4
pavement deterioration models for State Highway Networks in the states of Gujarat and Kerala, India. Rhode
et al. (1998) calibrated and used HDM-4-based pavement
management system (PMS) in the Gauteng Province of
South Africa and showed the influence of calibrated
performance models in the decision of the PMS. Elmi and
Nicolosi (2000) presented a procedure for calibrating four
pavement deterioration models of HDM-III for Italian
two-lane rural roads, but this was only a first-level
calibration as it has been developed only with analytical
algorithms without making use of any experimental data.
Carof et al. (2001) presented a series of examples and
procedures that can be implemented to achieve calibration

51

of HDM task to some countries of Eastern Europe.
Solminihac et al. (2003) attempted to calibrate the
pavement performance models for surface treatment to
Chilean local conditions using the ‘window’ monitoring
techniques. Jain et al. (2005a,b) attempted to calibrate
HDM-4 pavement deterioration models for National
Highway Network in India. Martin (2004, 2005) developed an empirical structural deterioration model based on
42 observations at some 21 monitored arterial road
sections over a number of years, for sealed unbound
granular pavements in Australia. Thube (2006) attempted
to calibrate HDM-4 pavement deterioration models for
low volume road network in India.
3. Highway development and management model
(HDM-4)
The World Bank has developed a computational system
HDM-4 to support professionals involved in management of
pavements. These models are important tools for development of the economic and technical evaluation of highways.
Moreover, these systems incorporate performance models
for bituminous, concrete and unsurfaced roads and the same
needs to be calibrated according to the specific conditions of
a country or region where they are to be used. Calibrating the
HDM-4 pavement performance models to the local
condition is very important because of its economic impact.
The direct influence of the initiation and progression of
pavement distress processes makes it necessary to
adequately adjust them to perform an accurate economic
evaluation of the road studies. The pavement performance
models of HDM-4 contemplated in this study correspond to
distresses of cracking, ravelling, rut depth, pothole, edge
break and roughness progression for thin-surfaced LVR
constructed under various schemes in plain, rolling and
mountainous terrains of the state of Uttarakhand, India.
4. Calibration methodology
To calibrate a pavement performance model, it is
necessary to possess a sufficient group of distress data
that serve to represent the real performance curve;
preferably the data representing a relatively longer period
of time. The process of calibration then consists of
determining the adjustment factors (ki), which will achieve
the best agreement between the model’s predictions and
the field data. ‘Test section’ or ‘film’ method and ‘window’
monitoring technique had been used for development and
calibration of pavement distress models in various studies
(Kenya and Brazil study and PARIS project; The AASHO
Road Test 1961, Hodges et al. 1975, Geipot 1982, LTPP
1996, Pavement Deterioration Models 1998, Solminihac
et al. 2003). In test sections calibration methodology, it is
necessary to measure distress data continuously for an
extended period of time for each selected sections for
obtaining reliable predictive data.

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52

D.T. Thube

For in-service deterioration, the greatest utility is
realised by monitoring a sample of pavements during a
medium period in the order of 35 years, which provides a
‘window’ or ‘snapshot’ of part of lifecycle of those
pavements. By including a range of pavement ages,
pavement types, pavement strengths, traffic and climate,
different pavement sections were selected according to an
experimentally designed factorial, which will permit a
sound statistical analysis of the primary factors, and it is
possible to achieve reliable models of the whole lifecycle
from a manageable sample of pavements in a comparatively shorter period of time. The approach thereby
includes the full-scale, long-term effects of environment,
age and mixed traffic in realistic loading regimes and
is constrained only by the logistics involved for the
number of pavements in the sample, which grows rapidly
as the number of factors in the factorial is increased
(Paterson 1987). This methodology also permits section
distress measurements to be made in a brief period of time
and consequently allows for the evaluation of a greater
number of sections and categories. The other reason for
adopting ‘window’ monitoring techniques in this study is
the absence of long-term historical pavement performance
data for LVR in India, although there is an immediate need
for the development of pavement deterioration models for
this category of roads.
In terms of ‘window’ monitoring technique application, the first step consists of defining homogeneous
LVR sections according to their most representative
variables (structure, traffic, geometry and climate). Each
of these sections has been then considered as a window in a
pavement’s performance curve and together with other
windows (similar individual sections) represents a
particular pavement’s performance. If the sections in a
chosen window have different ages, the performance
curves for different distress types can be obtained. In the
same model, these curves should present relatively similar
trends over the years. The performance data obtained from
field observations may then be compared with the data
obtained through modelling. This methodology enables
one to calibrate the different models using adjustment
factors ki. For another group of sections or for windows
with different characteristics, the data should present
different trends which in turn will modify the ki values
obtained when performing the calibration. The details of
calibration methodology evaluated in this study are shown
in Figure 1.
4.1 Definition of variables and experiment factorial
design
From the analysis of the performance model equations
(Bennett and Paterson 2000, Odoki and Kerali 2000,
Morosiuk et al. 2001), it is evident that the pavement’s
evolution over time fundamentally depends on four global

variables – traffic, pavement age (calculated from the date
of construction or most recent rehabilitation), dominant
climatic conditions and structural capacity. These
variables help to define the initiation as well as the
progression of the distress. They may exhibit together with
the interaction among the different manifestations of
damage and wear. In order to achieve a certain degree of
reliability in selecting a group of roads with sufficiently
similar characteristics, the first step is to create a matrix
through a combination of the distinct levels of its variables
(the four as previously mentioned), which will then allow
one to define the different roads that composed the
experiment factorial. In this category, an effort has been
made to include the largest possible number of
homogeneous road sections with the greatest possible
difference in age in order to reconstitute performance
curves with the greatest level of representation over a
period of time. Once the independent study variables
(factors) have been defined, a criterion is defined that
permits precise determination of how many levels each
variable or factor had to be subdivided into. The details of
variables of factorials adopted in this study, i.e. different
climatic conditions, traffic volume variations, terrain/geographical conditions and age of pavement section after its
construction, are given in Table 1. The individual cell then
represents the details of road sections in any particular
category, and the details of the various cells defined in the
study are given in Table 2. An attempt has been made in
this study to calibrate the pavement performance models
for each individual cell category except for cell 9 due to
the absence of sufficient LVR sections in this cell for
calibration.
4.2

Methodology for selection of test sections

Once the factorials of the experiment have been defined,
the selection of representative LVR sections in each cell
has been made by following two simultaneous compatible
criteria as:
i) Possession of a sufficient number of sections for each
cell category in order to be able to make use of a
minimum quantity of distress data and with the aim
of attaining adequate calibration of the performance
prediction models.
ii) Ranges sufficiently small in magnitude whenever
possible to ensure the greatest similitude and
homogeneity among the characteristics of the
different pavement types and thus ensure greater
reliability with respect to the calibration.
A total of 61 in-service LVR sections in plain, rolling and
mountainous terrains of eight districts of the state of
Uttarankhand, India, have been identified in this study and
the pavement condition data on these road sections are
collected by visual survey in 2004 and 2005. The

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International Journal of Pavement Engineering

Figure 1.
Table 1.

Calibration methodology adopted in this study.
Variable of factorials in this study.

Variables

Levels

Climate

3

Traffic
Terrain/geographical conditions
Age

3
3
3

Types of levels
Plain, rolling and mountainous [based on climatic conditions like moisture classification,
duration of dry season (as a fraction of the year), mean monthly precipitation,
temperature classification, mean temperature, average temperature range, days having
temperature .328C etc. of plain, rolling and mountainous terrains of study area]
High (. 150 CVPD), medium (45 – 150 CVPD), low (up to 45 CVPD)
Plain, rolling and mountainous
Initial (0– 5 years), middle (5– 10 years), final (.10 years)

pavement age has been calculated from the date
of construction or from the most recent rehabilitation
of pavement.
5.

53

Data acquisition and database development

The road network and inventory data consisting of road
class, reference system, section identifications, traffic
volume/composition, climatic and environmental details,
geometry class, carriageway and shoulder width, surface
type and thickness, pavement layer thickness, etc. for each
identified LVR section have been collected from field

studies as well as from the office records of highway
divisions in-charge of the maintenance of these roads. The
main objective of the measurement methodology was to
obtain sufficient quantity of samples to estimate average
distress with an acceptable margin of error and optimal
performance in field measurement. Each sample road
section consists of LVR of 1 km in length and
representative 100-m test section per sample road section
has been selected for distress measurements. The type and
extent of distresses (i.e. areas of cracking, ravelling,
pothole and edge break) have been measured by visual
condition survey by experts having rich experience in this

54
Table 2.

D.T. Thube
Details of cell charts and cell-wise identified low-volume road sections.
Traffic 0 –45 CVPD

Terrain and environmental condition types
Plain
Cell number
Section numbers
Rolling
Cell number
Section numbers
Mountainous
Cell number
Section numbers

Traffic 45 – 150 CVPD

Traffic .150 CVPD

Age 1

Age 2

Age 3

Age 1

Age 2

Age 3

Age 1

Age 2

Age 3

2

Cell 1
2

3

2

Cell 2
NI

2

3

Cell 3
2

2

4

Cell 4
4

2

1

Cell 5
2

NI

2

Cell 6
2

NI

12

Cell 7
2

2

4

Cell 8
2

2

2

Cell 9
NI

NI

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Notes: Age 1, initial age (0 –5 years); Age 2, middle age (5 –10 years); Age 3, final age (. 10 years); cell number represents the road sections in any particular category;
NI, no section available in this category of cell.

area on each test section by marking the affected areas in
the form of geometrical shapes and measuring the areas of
the same. The criteria adopted for the preliminary
identification of the representative test section were that
it should be on the straight reaches avoiding any cross
roads and major cross drainage works and the section in
urban areas and along ribbon development to be avoided to
the extent possible. The rut depth measurements have been
made with a 2-m straight edge and the mean rut depth
value has been measured for each test section. The
pavement roughness for LVR sections in plain and rolling
terrains has been measured in terms of Unevenness Index
(UI) with ‘Fifth Wheel Bump Integrator’ towed by the
mobile van, as per the standard procedure and the same has
been subsequently converted into International Roughness
Index (IRI) using Equation (1) (Sayers et al. 1977,
Paterson 1987, Odaki and Kerali 2000). The average
motorised and non-motorised traffic volume and composition of different types of vehicles in plain, rolling and
hilly terrains have been determined after carrying out 24 h
traffic counts on all selected LVR sections in the study
area. The normal annual traffic growth rate for motorised
and non-motorised traffic has been taken as 6% and 3% as
per the suggested guidelines in IRC:SP:20. The basic
motorised and non-motorised vehicle fleet data items as
per HDM-4 requirements on LVR were developed in the
study area and the same has been used in the calibration
study. Structural capacity of each of the selected LVR
section is evaluated using ‘LOADMAN’ deflection. The
LOADMAN deflection is then converted into Benkelman
Beam deflection using the established correlation for
Indian condition. Adjusted structural number (SNP) values
for each of the pavement section are deduced from the
Benkelman Beam deflection values and the same is used as
HDM-4 input.
UI ¼ 630 £ IRI1:12 ;

ð1Þ

where UI is the Unevenness Index (mm/km) and IRI is the
International Roughness Index (m/km).

6.

Calibration of pavement performance models

The procedure proposed for the statistical calibration of
pavement performance models in this study is mainly
based on determining the factors that will allow for a more
precise or better adjustment of the simulated distress
curves with the real performance data. Two different
procedures have been followed for calibration of
pavement deterioration models in this study, depending
on whether the factor to be determined corresponds to the
initiation or progression phase of distress. The procedure
proposed for calibrating surface distress initiation factors
is based on obtaining the coefficient between the observed
years of occurrence of the distress to the year of
occurrence as predicted by the uncalibrated models.
In case of progression factors, the calibration has been
done by minimising the squares of the differences between
the estimated and observed data or sum of squared
differences (SSD). Minimising the SSD will assist in
reducing the estimated average error, which in turn will
make it possible to locate the calibration factor that
ensures the best adjustment of the distress curve and
therefore the calibration of the analysed performance
model.
An analysis for the verification of distress prediction
quality has been performed by comparing the observed
versus predicted distress values for each models. The
comparison has been made at two levels: with the
recommended calibration factor for each cell category and
with the generalised average factors for different terrains
and for the study area as a whole. The following statistical
indicators are used for comparison of models:
Pn
j oi 2 pi j
AAE ¼ i¼1
;
ð2Þ
n
qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi 
2
Pn 
i¼1 oi 2 pi
RMSE ¼
;
ð3Þ
n
"  

2 ! #
X
oi 2 pi
2
R ¼12
ð4Þ  

2 ;
oi 2 oavg

International Journal of Pavement Engineering
where AAE is the average absolute error, RMSE is the root
mean square error, R 2 is the goodness-of-fit measure
(coefficient of determination), n is the number of
observations, oi is the actual value of distress observation
i, pi is the predicted value of distress observation i and oavg
is the average value of distress observations.
In HDM-4 model, the output from some pavement
performance prediction models serves as an input to other
models. Keeping this in view, the sequence of calibration
of performance prediction models has been decided as
cracking, ravelling, edge break, rut depth, pothole and
roughness progression models.The methodology adopted
for calibration of various pavement deterioration models
in this study is explained in the flow chart as shown in
Figure 2.

6.1 Suggested calibration factors
Three levels of deterioration models for calibration –
Level 1, basic application; Level 2, primary relationships;
Level 3, adaption – have been defined in HDM-4 tool,
which depends on the case involving a certain amount of
effort and resources to be reached. An attempt has been
made in this study for Level 2 of calibration by adopting
the statistical calibration methodology as described above.
Different trial calibration factors have been attempted for
road sections in each cell category and the calibration
factor corresponding to the maximum R 2 and minimum
RMSE value has been suggested amongst them. The details
of suggested calibration factors for various pavement
deterioration models in each cell category as well as for
each type of terrain and global calibration factors for the
study area are given in Table 3.

7.

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55

Analysis and interpretation of results

Using the suggested calibration factors given in Table 3,
HDM-4 analysis has been performed for the average
values of the selected factorial variables (terrain, traffic
and climate) for road sections in each cell. The cellwise
comparison is made with reference to the best fitness
relation (R 2 values) and the RMSE between the observed
versus HDM-4 predicted distresses for the average values
of the factorial variables (terrain, traffic and climate), and
the details of the same are given in Table 4.

7.1

Calibration analysis results

The details of the results of calibration analysis in this study
are given in Tables 3 and 4. The suggested calibration
coefficients for initiation and progressions of various
pavement deterioration models are compared with the
HDM-4 model for default calibration factors as unity. The
following observations are made based on the results of the
study:

Figure 2. Flow chart showing calibration methodology adopted
in this study.

(1) Initiation of surface distresses like cracking and
ravelling starts appearing on the pavement surface
earlier than that predicted by the HDM-4 model for a
default calibration factor for all terrain types. The
crack initiation will begin about 1.07, 1.09 and 1.60
times earlier and the ravelling initiation about 12.93,
15.07 and 15.15 times earlier than that predicted by
HDM-4 models for default calibration factor in plain,
rolling and mountainous terrains, respectively. The
initiation of potholing distress matches with a HDM4 default calibration factor for all three types of
terrains.
(2) The rate of cracking progression (Kcpa) is about 77%
slower than that predicted by the HDM-4 model for
default value of calibration factor in all three types of
terrains.

Notes: NI, sufficient distress data not available for calibration; PACF, plain terrain average calibration factors; RACF, rolling terrain average calibration factors; MACF, mountainous terrain average calibration factors; GCF, global
calibration factors for rural roads in study area.

2.5
2.6
2.2
2.43
2.3
2.1
2.1
2.17
NI
NI
NI
2.30
0.13
0.02
0.015
0.06
0.16
NI
NI
0.16
0.06
0.055
0.0575
0.091
1
1
1
1
1
NI
NI
1
1
1
1
1
2.2
3.2
2.7
2.7
1.5
2.6
2.4
2.17
1.4
1.6
1.5
2.122
0.93
0.59
0.31
0.61
0.9
0.29
0.14
0.44
1.6
1.7
1.65
0.901
0.34
0.34
0.33
0.34
0.39
0.25
0.17
0.27
0.47
0.6
0.54
0.381
0.08
0.075
0.077
0.08
0.07
0.067
0.062
0.07
0.067
0.065
0.07
0.07
0.8
1
1
0.93
1.25
0.75
0.75
0.92
0.75
0.5
0.63
0.825
1
2
3
PACF
4
5
6
RACF
7
8
MACF
GCF

0.2
0.22
0.26
0.23
0.2
0.22
0.27
0.23
0.21
0.24
0.23
0.227

Kgp
Kpp
Kpi
Krst
Keb
Kvi
Kcia
Cell number

Kcpa

Kvp

Progression
Progression
Progression
Progression
Initiation
Progression
Initiation

Rut depth
Edge break
Ravelling
Total cracking

Details of proposed HDM-4 pavement deterioration calibration factors.
Table 3.

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Initiation

Pothole

Progression

D.T. Thube
Roughness

56

(3) The rate of ravelling progression (Kvp) is about 66%,
73% and 46% slower than that predicted by the
HDM-4 model for default value of calibration factor in
plain, rolling and mountainous terrains, respectively.
(4) The rate of edge break progression is about 39% and
56% slower and 1.65 times faster than that predicted
by the HDM-4 model for default value of calibration
factor in plain, rolling and mountainous terrains,
respectively. The probable reason for faster rate of
edge break progression in mountainous terrain may be
due to the interaction between vehicular traffic and
typical geometrical features of mountainous terrain.
(5) The rate of rut depth progression is about 2.7, 2.17 and
1.5 times faster than that predicted by the HDM-4
model for default value of calibration factor in plain,
rolling and mountainous terrains, respectively.
(6) The rate of roughness progression is about 2.43 and
2.17 times faster than that predicted by the HDM-4
model for default value of calibration factor for plain
and rolling terrain, respectively.
(7) As rutting and roughness progression is a complex
phenomena and no detailed analysis regarding
observed faster progression for the same has been
carried out, the reasons regarding its faster progression
cannot be interpreted from the study.
(8) The rate of pothole progression is about 94%, 84% and
94% slower than that predicted by the HDM-4 model
for default value of calibration factor in plain, rolling
and mountainous terrain, respectively. The probable
reason for such less rate of pothole progression might
be the low percentage of truck volume (less than 5%)
plying on these roads.
(9) The HDM-4 calibration factors for ravelling initiation
and pothole progression distress models have been
observed to be very low as compared with the default
value of HDM-4 calibration factors. Hence, there is
need to reformulate these models particularly for LVR
category.
(10) The rsults of the statistical analysis given in Table 4
with reference to the best fitness relation (R 2 values)
and the rRMSE shows a very good agreement between
the observed distresses versus calibrated HDM-4
model predicted distresses. The coefficient of
determination values (R 2) is greater than 0.8 for
cracking and ravelling progression models; greater
than 0.7 for edge break, pothole and roughness
progression deterioration models and greater than
0.74 (except for cell 5, where R 2 ¼ 0.46) in case of rut
depth progression models. The above variations in R 2
values have been expected and accepted for such
complex phenomena of pavement deterioration under
the varied traffic loading, climatic and other
conditions.
(11) The suggested HDM-4 calibration factors for pavement deteriorations in this study can be very well used

International Journal of Pavement Engineering
Table 4.

57

Statistical inference regarding best fitness of calibration analysis.

Model

Total cracking
progression

Cell number

R2

RMSE

R2

RMSE

R2

RMSE

R2

RMSE

R2

RMSE

R2

RMSE

0.916
0.86
0.952
0.942
0.802
0.926
0.951
0.926

4.025
6.03
1.289
1.753
0.764
0.601
1.345
2.073

0.907
0.91
0.946
0.941
0.824
0.883
0.946
0.909

8.513
2.444
4.989
4.349
1.832
1.732
2.76
3.555

0.884
0.926
0.902
0.906
0.732
0.831
0.959
0.907

3.095
5.186
2.523
0.283
3.106
3.518
0.375
1.246

0.905
0.926
0.859
0.853
0.46
0.741
0.841
0.843

1.929
1.971
1.542
1.102
2.19
1.076
0.761
107

0.889
0.862
0.916
0.898
NI
NI
0.726
0.781

0.006
0.007
0.0032
0.002
NI
NI
0.007
0.014

0.863
0.859
0.865
0.841
0.71
0.762
NI
NI

0.625
0.594
0.412
0.261
0.235
0.208
NI
NI

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Ravelling
progression

Edge break
progression

Rut depth
progression

Pothole
progression

Roughness
progression

Notes: RMSE, root mean square error; NI, no model available for this cell.

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for developing HDM-4-based pavement maintenance
system for LVR.
8.

Validation of calibrated models

It is important to validate the calibrated HDM-4 pavement
deterioration models before putting them to use for
checking the adequacy of calibration. The validity of the
calibrated pavement deterioration models in this study has
been checked on LVR sections (different than model
developments) in the study area. Ten numbers of different
LVR sections (four in plain terrain and three each in
rolling and mountainous terrains of study area) are
selected for model validations, and the details of average
annual daily traffic (motorised and non-motorised),
subgrade california bearing ratio, pavement inventory,
construction history details, etc. are collected for each road
section. Measurement of various pavement distresses like
roughness, total cracking, ravelling, pothole and edge
Table 5.

Statistical inference regarding validation of calibrated pavement deterioration models.

Serial number
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

break is carried out for each road section in each years
2004 and 2005. HDM-4 analysis has been carried out for
each LVR validation road section using the suggested
average calibration factors for plain, rolling and
mountainous terrains as given in Table 3 for determining
the predicted distresses corresponding to the suggested
calibration factors. Scatter plots have been plotted between
the observed versus HDM-4 predicted distresses for
checking the significance of relationship between them.
The coefficient of determination value (R 2) between
observed versus HDM-4 predicted distresses for various
deterioration models varied between 0.7 –0.96, 0.84– 0.98
and 0.80– 0.93 in plain, rolling and mountainous terrains,
respectively, as given in Table 5. This shows a very good
agreement between observed versus predicted distress
values and hence proves the adequacy of the calibrated
HDM-4 models for LVR in the study area.

Terrain type

Model
description

P
P
P
P
P
P
R
R
R
R
R
R
M
M
M
M
M

CP
RP
RDP
EBP
PHP
RGP
CP
RP
RDP
EBP
PHP
RGP
CP
RP
RDP
EBP
PHP

R2

Calculated
t-value (tcal)

Degrees of
freedom (n-2)

Tabulated
t-value (t0.05)

Comparison of tcal vs. t0.05

0.98
0.98
0.91
0.98
0.70
0.71
0.99
0.99
0.94
0.84

10.145
12.3178
8.2313
10.6392
3.8083
4.59
28.822
14.146
8.1035
4.6748

2.015
2.015
2.015
2.015
2.015
2.015
2.353
2.353
2.353
2.353

tcal . t0.05
tcal . t0.05
tcal . t0.05
tcal . t0.05
tcal . t0.05
tcal . t0.05
tcal . t0.05
tcal . t0.05
tcal . t0.05
tcal . t0.05

0.63
0.78
0.83
0.90
0.95

4.9701
4.0913
5.8811
6.1514
7.4639

5
5
5
5
5
5
3
3
3
3
NI
3
3
3
3
3
NI

2.353
2.353
2.353
2.353
2.353

tcal . t0.05
tcal . t0.05
tcal . t0.05
tcal . t0.05
tcal . t0.05

Notes: P, plain terrain; R, rolling terrain; M, mountainous terrain; CP, cracking progression; RP, ravelling progression; RDP, rut depth progression; EBP, edge break progression;
PHP, pothole progression; RGP, roughness progression; NI, insufficient data.

58

D.T. Thube

8.1 The t-test
The t-test for testing the hypothesis about the parameter b1
(slope of regression line) is carried out for various distress
models in each terrain for finding the significance of
relationship between observed versus HDM-4 predicted
distresses. The details of base hypothesis (Ho) and
alternative hypothesis (Ha) considered for t-test are given
in Equations (5) and (6) and the rejection rule followed by
testing of the hypotheses (one-tailed ‘t’ test) is given in
Equation (7).
p i ¼ b o þ b1 o i ;
Ho : b1 ¼ 0;

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8.2

Ha : b1 – 0:

Rejection rule
Reject Ho if tcal , 2ta or tcal . ta ;

ð5Þ
ð6Þ

ð7Þ

where ta is based on Student’s t-distribution with (n-2)
degrees of freedom and for level of significance as a.
The calculated t-values (tcal) for various distress
models for road sections in each terrain are compared with
the tabulated t-values for level of significance (a) of 5%
(t0.05) and degree of freedom as (n-2), and the details of the
same are given in Table 5. As the observed value of the test
statistics tcal falls into the rejection region, Ho hypotheses
have been rejected and it can be concluded that there is a
significant relationship between the observed versus
HDM-4 predicted distresses for all three types of terrains.
9.

Conclusions

The following conclusions have been drawn on the basis of
the study:
i) The internationally recognised HDM-4 pavement
deterioration models need to be calibrated for LVR
in local conditions of India, as large variations are
found between the suggested calibration factors for
initiation and progression of various pavement
deterioration models in this study and the corresponding default HDM-4 calibration factors as unity.
ii) The ‘window’ monitoring techniques as explained in
this study will be useful for calibration of HDM-4
pavement distress models in the absence of
availability of any long-term historical pavement
performance data and an immediate need for
development of pavement deterioration models.
iii) The validity of suggested models has been checked
to test their efficacy by comparing the distress
predictions made by the calibrated deterioration
models with those actually observed on the selected
pavement sections in plain, rolling and mountainous
terrains.
iv) The calibrated HDM-4 pavement deterioration
models in this study can be used for the prediction
of distresses and developing optimal maintenance

management strategies for LVR in different terrains
of India.
v) The results of the proposed performance model
calibration recommendations will also be useful in
other parts of India and in South-Asian countries
nearby having similar geographical and environmental conditions.

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