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SUTTMEIER on the US CAPITAL MARKETS

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This Weeks Markets Briefing By Richard Suttmeier February 9, 2015


The Major Equity Averages
The Dow

S&P 500

Nasdaq

Trans

Russell

The SOX

Utilities

17,824
17,165
659
17,823
1
15112 A
14557 A

2,055.5
1,995.0
60.5
2,058.9
-3.4
1585.9 A
1558.2 A

4744
4635
109
4736
8
4635 S
3901 A
3586 A

8932
8649
283
9140
-208
8655 S
8452 S
7289 A

1205.55
1165.39
40.16
1204.71
0.84
954.08 A
975.84 A

671.84
653.14
18.7
686.87
-15.03
619.34 S
600.94 S
432.78 A

613.69
637.20
-23.51
618.05
-4.36
525.86 A
510.04 A

Pivots

17706 M

2053.3 S

4715 S

Risky
Levels

18,144 W
18328 S
18744 S

2076.7 M
2095.3 W
2268.9 Q

4795 W
4931 M
5245 Q

9031 W
9139 M
10009 Q

Five-Week
Stochastics

17,611
6.6 / 6.0

2,037.7
6.6 / 6.1

4700
7.1 / 6.8

8887
5.6 / 5.0

2/6/2015
1/30/2015
Weekly Chg
12/312014
YTD Change
Value
Levels

1192.45 M
1207.39 S
1233.71 W
1287.98 S

1183.47
7.0 / 5.7

683.46 W
699.73 M
724.22 W
763.90 Q
670.7
7.1 / 6.3

621.93 S
621.84 S
627.50 Q
637.27 M
657.41 W
623.00
8.5 / 7.9

U.S. Treasuries, Comex Gold, Nymex Crude Oil, Currencies


10-Year

30-year

Gold

Crude Oil

Euro/$$

$$ Yen

GBP/$$

1.955
1.666
0.289
2.170
-0.215

2.523
2.245
0.278
2.750
-0.227

1235.2
1284.1
-48.9
1183.0
52.2

51.98
47.54
4.44
53.78
-1.8

1.1317
1.1290
0.0027
1.2101
-0.0784

118.91
117.43
1.48
119.77
-0.86

1.5230
1.5061
0.0169
1.5583
-0.0353

Value
Levels

3.147 Q

2.949 S
3.013 A
3.690 Q

892.99 Q

44.22 W

1.0869 W

112.09 S
96.22 S

1.4806 W
1.2801 A

Pivots

1.921 S
1.964 M
1.850 W
1.589 A
1.342 S

2.493 M

1238.7 M
1248.7 W
1348.9 S
1580.7S
1814.7 A

49.89 M

1.1366 M

119.04 W

1.5266 M

2/6/2015
1/30/2015
Weekly Chg
12/31/2014
YTD Change

2.356 W
66.59 M
1.2828 S
121.22 M
1.5821Q
2.177 S
81.58 S
1.2899 Q
124.52 Q
1.6289 S
2.169 A
86.14 Q
2.117 W
95.93 A
1.964
2.565
1240.8
53.62
1.1697
118.08
1.5295
Five-Week
Stochastics
2.6 / 2.5
1.2 / 1.3
7.5 / 7.5
0.6 / 0.9
0.7 / 0.9
7.3 / 6.6
0.8 / 1.1
Value Levels Levels that are likely to hold on weakness. Pivots Levels that could be tested as magnets. Risky Levels
Levels that are likely to restrain strength (W-Weekly, M-Monthly, Q-Quarterly, S-Semiannual and A-Annual)
Five-Week The five-week modified moving average. Int Sent 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading on a scale of 0.0 to
10.0. (Below 2.0 is oversold, above 8.0 is overbought. Rising is positive. Declining is negative)
Weekly Charts Above the Five-Week with rising Stoch is positive. Below the Five-Week with declining Stoch is negative.
Risky
Levels

February Began With a Topsy-Turvy Week. The five major equity averages began the week negative, ended the
week neutral. Dow Utilities began the week positive but overbought, ended the week negative. U.S. Treasury yields
rose anticipation that the FOMC will raise rates in the second quarter. Gold could confirm a peak this week as crude
oil trades around my monthly pivot at $49.89. The dollar was mixed.

SUTTMEIER on the US CAPITAL MARKETS

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The five major equity averages are above their five-week modified moving averages at 17611 Dow Industrials,
2037.7 S&P 500, 4700 Nasdaq, 8887 Dow Transports and 1183.47 Russell 2000. All five major averages have
declining 12x3x3 Weekly Slow Stochastics readings.
The year-to-date lows for the five major equity averages; 17037.76 Dow Industrials on Feb. 2, 1980.90 S&P 500
on Feb. 2, 4563.11 Nasdaq on Jan.16, 8583.54 Dow Transports on Feb. 2, and 1151.30 Russell 2000 on Jan.16.
Dow Industrials: (17824) Annual value levels are 15112 and 14557 with a monthly pivot at 17706, the Dec. 26 alltime intraday high at 18103.45, and weekly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 18144, 18328, 18744 and
19600.
S&P 500 (2055.5) Annual value levels are 1585.9 and 1558.2 with a semiannual pivot at 2053.3, a monthly risky
level at 2076.7, the Dec. 29 all-time intraday high at 2093.55 and weekly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at
2095.3, 2102.2 and 2268.9.
NASDAQ (4744) Annual value levels are 3901and 3596 with semiannual pivots at 4635 and 4715, a weekly risky
level at 4795, the Dec.26 multiyear high at 4814.95, and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 4931 and 5245.
Dow Transports (8932) Semiannual and annual value levels are 8452, 7289 and 6635 with a semiannual pivot at
8655, weekly and monthly risky levels at 9031 and 9139, the Nov. 28 all-time intraday high at 9319.33 and quarterly
risky level at 10009.
Russell 2000 (1205.55) Annual value levels are 975.84 and 954.08 with monthly and semiannual pivots at
1192.45 and 1207.39, the Dec.29 all-time intraday high at 1220.81 and weekly, semiannual and quarterly risky
levels at 1233.71, 1287.98 and 1382.55.
The SOX (671.84) Semiannual and annual value levels are 619.34, 600.94 and 432.78 with weekly and monthly
risky levels at 683.46 and 699.73, the Dec. 8 multiyear intraday high at 704.44 and quarterly risky level at 763.90.
Dow Utilities: - (613.69) Annual value levels are 525.86 and 510.04 with semiannual and quarterly pivots at 621.93
and 627.50, a monthly risky level at 637.27, the Jan. 28 all-time intraday high at 657.17, and weekly risky level at
657.41.
10-Year Note (1.955%) My quarterly value level is 3.147% with semiannual and monthly pivots at 1.921% and
1.964%, and weekly, annual and semiannual risky levels at 1.850%, 1.589%, 1.342% and 0.715%.
30-Year Bond (2.523%) Semiannual, annual and quarterly value levels are 2.949%, 3.013% and 3.690% with a
monthly pivot at 2.493%, and weekly, semiannual and annual risky levels at 2.356%, 2.169% and 2.117%.
Comex Gold ($1235.2) A quarterly value level is $893.0 with a monthly pivot at $1238.7, and weekly, semiannual
and annual risky levels at $1248.7, $1348.9, $1580.7 and $1816.9.
Nymex Crude Oil ($51.98) A weekly value level is $44.22 with the Jan. 2009 low is at $33.20 and the Feb. 3 high
at $54.24, a monthly pivot at $49.89 (magnet), and semiannual risky levels at $66.59 and $81.58.
The Euro (1.1317) A weekly value level is 1.0869 with the Jan. 26 low at 1.1098, a monthly pivot at 1.1366
(magnet), and semiannual and quarterly risky levels are at 1.2828, 1.2899 and 1.3551.
The Dollar vs Japanese Yen (118.91) A semiannual value level is are 112.09 with a weekly pivot at 119.04, and
monthly and quarterly risky levels at 121.22 and 124.52.
The British Pound (1.5230) Weekly an annual value levels are 1.4806 and 1.2801 with a monthly pivot at 1.5266
and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 1.5821 and 1.6289.

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Trading Levels for 16 Key Exchange-Traded Funds

The Diamonds Trust (DIA), the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) ended last week with neutral
weekly charts with closes above their five-week modified moving averages with declining 12x3x3 weekly slow
stochastic readings.
Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Financial, Technology and Transportation
sectors have neutral weekly charts. These had gains of 2.2% (Consumer Staples) to 4.9% (Financial) last week.
The Energy ETF has been upgraded to positive from negative. Energy gained 5.7% last week.
The Healthcare sector is now neutral with a gain of just 0.7% last week.
The Utilities sector shifted to negative from positive but overbought. Utilities lost 3.6% last week. .
The Commodity Fund (GSG) had a gain of 5.4% last week. This ETF is 70% weighed to energy and crude oil and
has a negative but oversold weekly chart.
The 20+ year U.S. Treasury fund (TLT) lost 5.3% last week but is still up 4% year to date.
The Gold Trust ETF (GLD) lost 3.9% last week but is still up 4.5% year to date.

SUTTMEIER on the US CAPITAL MARKETS

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The February Scorecard for the Dow Jones Industrial Average

Earnings Statistics 26 Dow components have reported quarterly results. 12 went into their earnings release with
lowered analysts earnings-per-share estimates. 20 beat estimates, three matched and 3 missed.
The Dow 30 is about unchanged on the year dragged down by YTD losses from American Express (AXP) down
8.6%, Caterpillar (CAT) down 9.1%, Intel (INTC) down 8.3%, JP Morgan (JPM) down 7.5%, and Microsoft
(MSFT) down 8.7%.
Disney (DIS) solidly beat raised earnings estimates and shares popped 12.2% last week setting an all-time intraday
high of $102.99. The stock is up 8.3% year to date behind Boeing (BA) with a 13.9% YTD gain.
Technical Measures 16 components are above their 50-day simple moving averages, up from six a week ago. 11
components are below their 200-day simple moving averages, down from 14 last week. 13 components have
negative weekly charts down from 23 components last week with Caterpillar still oversold.