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Econometrics 7590

´

Zsuzsanna HORVATH

and Ryan JOHNSTON

Abstract: We define the AR(1) process and its properties and applications. We demonstrate the applicability of our method to model time series data consisting of daily values

of the interest rate on federal funds. We show that correctly identifying the distribution

of the errors terms allows for correct modelling of the data. Furthermore, we show our

conclusions concerning the hypothesis test for goodness-of-fit cannot be rejected.

1

Contents 1 Introduction 3 2 AR(1) Time Series 4 3 Fitting the Data to the Model 6 4 Proof 8 5 Time Series 9 6 Conclusion: Modeling High Volatility 10 7 Bibliography 12 2 .

stock market analysis. Assumptions about the error terms are made to guarantee a unique stationary solution. the integrated (I) models. For example. These assumptions limit our ability to model time series that exhibit 3 . written as AR(1). we typically think of a time series as an ordered sequence of values (data points) of variables at equally spaced time intervals. There exist many models used for time series. census analysis. utility studies. The most commonly used model for time series data is the autoregressive process. Time series models are used in an attempt make sense of time series. . economic forecasting. it is desirable to have a unique solution that is independent of time (stationary) and a function of the past error terms. where the εk are called the error terms or innovations and are what make up the variability in the time series. there are three very broad classes that are used most often. A solution as a function of the past error terms is necessary in models used to forecast. Time series analysis is the study of these models and is used in many applications including budgetary analysis. . The distribution of such random variables is the key component in modeling time series. It is important to note that the existence of a unique stationary solution is non-trivial. the autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) combines the (AR) model and the (MA) model. Another example of this is the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. however. The autoregressive process is a difference equation determined by random variables. The time series considered in this paper is the first order autoregressive equation. The results are then used to fit these models for predictive forecasting and monitoring. process and quality control. Much of the literature on AR models assume that the error terms are an uncorrelated sequence of random variables with a probability distribution that has zero for the mean and a finite variance. ±1. These are the autoregressive (AR) models. which may be difficult to find or at an inconvenient location in a time series. These models are often intertwined to generate new models. ±2. They are used to obtain an understanding of the underlying factors and theory (where did the data come from? What are the statistical properties of the data? What trends are present?) that produce the observed data. k = 0. inventory studies. . workload projections. and the moving average (MA) models. For practical reasons.1 Introduction Any array of time and numbers that are associated can be considered a time series. however. The AR(1) equation is a standard linear difference equation Xk = ρXk−1 + εk . and yield projections. A solution that is independent of time allows one to be able to avoid an initial condition. which combine all three of the models previously mentioned.

and in turn Xk−1 is obtained from knowing Xk−2 and so on. ρp 6= 0 and the εt are typically assumed to be uncorrelated (0. the ε′k s are regarded as random variables and are often referred to as the error terms or innovations.1. a solution for Xk can be found through recursive substitution . k = 0. . ±2. ±1. The value of ρ will be considered shortly. Nothing has yet been mentioned about the variable ρ. Xk is obtained from knowing the value of Xk−1. a difference equation is an equation directly relating the value X at time k to the value of X at a previous time period. σ 2 ) random variables (i. . E[ε20] = σ 2 ). For the AR(1) process. Observe that Xk can be obtained from an initial value X0 that is k-time periods prior. the AR(1) process is a f irst order autoregressive time series and most commonly defined by the following equations Xk = ρXk−1 + εk k = 0. . Thus.1) Xk = ρXk−1 + εk is called a first-order difference equation because only the first backshift or lag of the variable appears in the equation. ±2. Fortunately it has been shown that weaker assumptions can be made to allow the use of distributions that more closely model high volatility time series data without losing the guarantee that there exists a unique stationary solution. i=0 where ρ0 6= 0. Using the difference equation above.e. which is simply a first order linear difference equation. Note that Xk is represented as a linear function of Xk−1 and εk . A difference equation written as (2. They generally make up the variability that is part of the system when it moves from one time period to the next. E[ε0 ] = 0. . Thus. A difference equation is an expression relating a variable Xk to its previous values. . .2 AR(1) TIME SERIES 4 more volatile behavior such as the stock market or interest rates. plus another variable ε dependent on time k (εk ). ±1. 2 AR(1) Time Series The pth order autoregressive time series (often written as AR(p)) Xk is given by the following equation p X ρi Xk−i = εk . which is a constant. For example.

i=0 P i The limit as N → ∞ of equation (2. . Thus. the value of X at time k (Xk ) can be obtained using recursive substitution Xk =ρXk−1 + εk =ρ(ρXk−2 + εk−1 ) + εk =ρ2 Xk−2 + ρεk−1 + εk =ρ3 Xk−3 + ρ2 εk−2 + ρεk−1 + εk . ... Xkj ) is the same as that of (Xk1+h . for every N (2.. . denoted as k − N. FXk1 .. . xkj ) = FXk1+h . ρN −1 geometrically goes to zero. the joint distribution of (Xk1 . . . . .Xk2 . in other words. consider two time periods. kj ). Xk2+h . .2 AR(1) TIME SERIES 5 Xk =ρXk−1 + εk =ρ(ρXk−2 + εk−1) + εk =ρ2 Xk−2 + ρεk−1 + εk =ρ3 Xk−3 + ρ2 εk−2 + ρεk−1 + εk . in the general case.Xkj (xk1 . one at time k and the other counted N time periods back from k.2. =ρk X0 + ρk−1 ε1 + · · · + ρεk−1 + εk .2. . . . For example.. If εk is stationary. xk2 .Xk2+h .. Thus. It may also be observed that the effect of εk−(N −1) on Xk is ρN −1 .. . . . xk2+h . . xkj+h ). . ρN −1 grows exponentially over .1) and for |ρ| < 1 indicates Xk = ∞ i=0 ρ εk−i P i must be the solution of the difference equation. where X0 is the initial value. Recall that stationary implies that the time series is independent of time.1) Xk = ρN Xk−N + N −1 X ρi εk−i. . . Whereas when |ρ| > 1. The value of X at time k − N is like the initial value. not on the time (k1 .. . . Thus for |ρ| < 1. then i=0 ρ εk−i is also stationary. More specifically. The joint distribution depends only on the difference h.Xkj+h (xk1+h .. This can be generalized to the case wherein the initial value is Xk−N . assuming that the infinite sum ∞ i=0 ρ εk−i P∞ i exists. =ρN Xk−N + ρN −1 εk−(N −1) + · · · + ρεk−1 + εk . Xk2 . Xkj+h ). .. so Xk−N becomes the value of X known at time k − N.

For obvious reasons it is typically assumed the value of |ρ| to be less than one since it would not serve to be practical to use a model that requires knowledge of observations from the future rather than the past. we would need to know the value of ρ. For |ρ| > 1. the less it will affect the present. we need to obtain the distribution of the error terms since the AR(1) equation is determined simply by past observations of the random variable X and the error terms. or the further back in time a given change occurs. which in fact is the reason we chose the data set that we did.3 FITTING THE DATA TO THE MODEL 6 time. It is important to note that for |ρ| < 1.economagic. for |ρ| < 1. The chi-squared goodness-of-fit test is considered a good test in trying to determine the distribution of a random variable even when the paramaters are unknown. the system blows up. This is done in order to try to fit the shape of the histogram as closely to a distribution curve of a specific probability distribution. but the solution is given as a function of the error terms from the future. We now take a look at a time series data set taken from the Economagic website (http://www. So. 1992 to March 13. The given change eventually dies out over time. The data consists of roughly 18 months of daily values of the interest rate on federal funds. We hope for the data to be stationary. The details of obtaining all of this information is explained in the following section. In addition. There are approximately 500 data points from October 29. Thus. if we knew the distribution of the error terms. we observe a plot of the data to get an idea of what trends there might be. For practical purposes. the solution is given as a function of the error terms from the past. we would have the distribution of the AR(1) equation. We also create a histogram of the observed data to begin to get an idea of what distribution we could use to test for goodness-of-fit. it is desirable to have a system that is less effected the further we go into the past. We want to minimize the sum of the square of errors . Now we calculute the estimators for ρ and our distribution function and use the chi-squared goodness-of-fit test to determing whether the observed data could be of the hypothesized distribution. the system is considered stable. For |ρ| > 1. This will be accomplished using the least squares estimation. The error term is ǫk . 3 Fitting the Data to the Model The first step in fitting the collected data to the AR(1) model described in the previous section is to estimate the value of ρ. which is the case we are faced with. it is possible to obtain a stable solution. Thus. which we find an estimator for using the method of least squares. A given change from the past increasingly affects the future as time goes on.com). 1994. First. It may be necessary to “play around” with the parameters of the histogram by decreasing or increasing the interval length for the data to be binned. We desire to obtain the distribution of the solution to this time series.

ǫ500 ˆ . Our next step in modelling the data is to determine the approximate distribution that the data may have come from. Recall. . Hence. we can see the correlation between each observation from time period to time period. To determine this. we solve for ǫk . By estimating ρˆ.3 FITTING THE DATA TO THE MODEL 7 for our observed values with respect to ρ. The question now becomes estimating the parameters of the Cauchy to get a nice fit for the error terms. Therefore. . we generate a histogram that has 40 equally spaced bins. we obtain our least squares estimator for ρ: Pn k=2 Xk Xk−1 . We take the derivative of the sum of squares to get n n X ∂ X 2 (Xk − ρXk−1 ) (−Xk−1 ) . (Xk − ρXk−1 ) = 2 ∂ρ k=2 k=2 We set the derivative equal to 0 and obtain the following: 2 n X (Xk − ρXk−1 ) (−Xk−1 ) = 0 k=2 n X k=2 − n X 2 −Xk Xk−1 + ρXk−1 =0 Xk Xk+1 + ρ n X 2 Xk−1 =0 ρ n X 2 Xk−1 k=2 k=2 = k=2 n X Xk Xk−1 k=2 Hence. knowing the distribution of the ǫ′k s will give us the exact distribution of the observed data. ǫk . the least squares estimator yields that ρˆ = 0. (3. The only thing that is different between the observations are the random error terms.6538525. ǫˆ2 . The distribution is clearly Cauchy. In order to obtain a detailed picture. To find the distribution of our data. We find that a Cauchy with parameters. Xk = ρXk−1 + ǫk ǫˆk = Xk − ρˆXk−1 We now have all of the information necessary to generate the histogram. we need to first find the distribution of our error terms.1) ρˆ = P n 2 k=2 Xk−1 From our observed data. we create a histogram of ǫˆ1 . .

Y2 . ∞) Let K = 8 and n = 500. [1. . scale=. We define this as Y1 .02.8. 1. [0.0499 Ha : H0 is not true We will divide the interval into K cells and calculate the number of observations that fall into each cell.4 PROOF 8 location = 1. [0.1.5.02). we provide a χ2 test. along with the density of a Cauchy can be found in Figure 4. [2. 4 Proof H0 : time series data has Cauchy Distribution with parameter: location=1. the density of the Cauchy distribution: 1 1 f (x) = . scale = .97). To further strengthen the assumption that the ǫ′k s came from a Cauchy distribution.8.97. The histogram of the error terms. . ti−1 Recall K X (Yi − Ei )2 i=1 Ei ∼ χ2 (K − 1) We obtain that: Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 = 90 = 10 = 20 = 111 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 = 258 =4 =6 =1 Using the definition of Ei gives: E1 E2 E3 E4 = 110 = 14 = 18 = 107 E5 E6 E7 E8 = 234 =6 =6 =4 . 1. [1. We define the range of our 8 cells as [−∞.8). π 1 + x2 We define Ei = 500 Z ti f (x)dx.0499 provides a good fit.5). Y8 .02. [1.02. .96. Recall. 0.96). . 2. 0.8). 0.98).98. [0. 1.

1 Histogram of ǫˆ1 .51.07 with 95% probability. . ǫˆ2 . we have just computed K X (Yi − Ei )2 i=1 Ei = 10. .9 0 1 2 3 4 5 5 TIME SERIES 0. Hence.0 0.0 2.161466.5 1.0 Figure 4. . 5 Time Series We generate X1 . . Xn satisfying the equation. Xn = ρXn−1 + ǫn . which strengthens our conclusion that the null hypothesis cannot be rejected at any reasonable levels of significance.5 3. the corresponding p-value is . ǫ500 ˆ Using the definition of χ2 we get: (90 − 110)2 (10 − 14)2 (20 − 18)2 (111 − 107)2 + + + + 110 14 18 107 (258 − 234)2 (4 − 6)2 (6 − 6)2 (1 − 4)2 + + + ∼ χ2 (7) 234 6 6 4 More succinctly. .0 1. Referencing a standard χ2 table shows that χ2 (7) can be as large as 14. . . Furthermore. X2 .5 2. the null hypothesis that these values are Cauchy cannot be rejected (at a significance level of 5%).

02. In each case the error terms are Cauchy random variables.2 we superimpose the two graphs. X2 . the random error term. scale = . The plot of the 500 simulated values of X1 . . ǫn .1. allows for the correct modelling of our data.2. . . This result is shown on Figure 5. We have shown that correctly identifying the distribution of the error terms. Due to our extemely high p-value. . namely that it does not have a defined mean or variance.1 and 5. 6 Conclusion: Modeling High Volatility We have capitalized upon the properties of the Cauchy distribution. which guarantee a stationary solution to the time series. X2 .10 1 2 3 4 5 6 CONCLUSION: MODELING HIGH VOLATILITY 0 100 200 300 400 500 Figure 5. The original 500 observed values from the data set can be found in Figure 5. The properties of the Cauchy distribution satisfy the requirements from the literature. our conclusions concerning the hypothesis test for goodness-of-fit cannot be rejected at any reasonable level of significance.0499. finance and other various fields. Having such a distribution has not only become convenient. but necessary in forecasting and monitoring data sets in economics. These characteristics are essential for the modelling of volatile data. .1 is a simulation of the AR(1) time series for the value of ρ = 0.3. . Xn As previously discussed. Figure 5. . . .Essentially.1 500 simulated values of X1 . Xn can be found in Figure 5. was generated using a Cauchy distribution with parameters: location = 1. To further compare Figures 5.6538525.

3 Simultaneous plot of observed and simulated values .2 500 observed values from original dataset 0 100 200 300 Figure 5.11 1 2 3 4 5 6 CONCLUSION: MODELING HIGH VOLATILITY 0 100 200 300 400 500 400 500 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Figure 5.

1991. New York: Academic Press. Kai Lai. • Harris. University of Utah: 2006. NJ: John Wiley & Sons Inc. NY: Chapman and Hall. 1976. Christopher. New York: Springer–Verlag. NY: Cambridge University Press. Princeton. David. A Course in Probability Theory. Time Series: Theory and Methods.. Effect of Aggregation On Estimators in AR(1) Sequence. New York. 1987. New York. • Chung. 1984. Introduction To Statistical Time Series. . Time Series Analysis.7 BIBLIOGRAPHY 7 12 Bibliography • Brockwell. • Chatfield. Applied Time Series Modelling and Forecasting. and Richard A. The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction. Peter J. Richard and Robert Sollis. • Fuller. 2003. • Williams. 1974. Preprint. Hoboken. Probability with Martingales. Wayne A. 2005.. NJ: Princeton University Press. Jon. James D. • Hamilton. • Gunnip. New York: John Wiley & Sons Inc. Lajos and Remigijus Leipus. 1994. • Horvath. Davis. Analyzing Aggregated AR(1) Processes.

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