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cially in scenarios involving time travel. Additionally,

In chaos theory, the buttery eect is the sensitive de- works of ction that involve points at which the storyline diverges during a seemingly minor event, resulting

in a signicantly dierent outcome than would have occurred without the divergence, are an example of the buttery eect.

1 History

Chaos theory and the sensitive dependence on initial conditions were described in the literature in a particular case

of the three-body problem by Henri Poincar in 1890.[1]

He later proposed that such phenomena could be common, for example, in meteorology.[2]

In 1898,[1] Jacques Hadamard noted general divergence

of trajectories in spaces of negative curvature. Pierre

Duhem discussed the possible general signicance of this

in 1908.[1] The idea that one buttery could eventually

have a far-reaching ripple eect on subsequent historic

events rst appears in "A Sound of Thunder", a 1952

short story by Ray Bradbury about time travel (see Literature and print here).

= 8/3. The buttery eect or sensitive dependence on initial

conditions is the property of a dynamical system that, starting

from any of various arbitrarily close alternative initial conditions

on the attractor, the iterated points will become arbitrarily spread

out from each other.

to rerun a weather prediction, when, as a shortcut on a

number in the sequence, he entered the decimal 0.506 instead of entering the full 0.506127. The result was a completely dierent weather scenario.[3] In 1963 Lorenz published a theoretical study of this eect in a well-known

paper called Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow.[4] (As noted

in the paper, the calculations were performed on a Royal

McBee LGP-30 computing machine.[5][6] ) Elsewhere he

said that One meteorologist remarked that if the theory were correct, one ap of a sea gull's wings would be

enough to alter the course of the weather forever. The

controversy has not yet been settled, but the most recent evidence seems to favor the sea gulls.[6] Following suggestions from colleagues, in later speeches and papers Lorenz used the more poetic buttery. According to

Lorenz, when he failed to provide a title for a talk he was

to present at the 139th meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in 1972, Philip

Merilees concocted Does the ap of a butterys wings in

Brazil set o a tornado in Texas? as a title. Although a

buttery apping its wings has remained constant in the

expression of this concept, the location of the buttery,

the consequences, and the location of the consequences

have varied widely.[7]

in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large dierences in a later state. The name of

the eect, coined by Edward Lorenz, is derived from the

metaphorical example of the details of a hurricane (exact

time of formation, exact path taken) being inuenced by

minor perturbations such as the apping of the wings of

a distant buttery several weeks earlier. Lorenz discovered the eect when he observed that runs of his weather

model with initial condition data that was rounded in a

seemingly inconsequential manner would fail to reproduce the results of runs with the unrounded initial condition data. A very small change in initial conditions had

created a signicantly dierent outcome.

The buttery eect is exhibited by very simple systems.

For example, the randomness of the outcomes of throwing dice depends on this characteristic to amplify small

dierences in initial conditionsthe precise direction,

thrust, and orientation of the throwinto signicantly

dierent dice paths and outcomes, which makes it virtually impossible to throw dice exactly the same way twice.

The buttery eect is a common trope in ction, espe1

4 EXAMPLES

create tiny changes in the atmosphere that may ultimately

alter the path of a tornado or delay, accelerate or even

prevent the occurrence of a tornado in another location.

Note that the buttery does not power or directly create

the tornado. The Buttery eect does not convey the notion - as is often misconstrued - that the ap of the butterys wings causes the tornado. The ap of the wings is

a part of the initial conditions; one set of conditions leads

to a tornado while the other set of conditions doesn't. The

apping wing represents a small change in the initial condition of the system, which causes a chain of events leading to large-scale alterations of events (compare: domino

eect). Had the buttery not apped its wings, the trajectory of the system might have been vastly dierent its possible that the set of conditions without the buttery

apping its wings is the set that leads to a tornado.

M and any > 0, there are y in M, with distance d(. , .)

such that 0 < d(x, y) < and such that

Some scientists have since argued that the weather system is not as sensitive to initial condition as previously

believed.[9] David Orrell argues that the major contributor to weather forecast error is model error, with sensitivity to initial conditions playing a relatively small

role.[10][11] Stephen Wolfram also notes that the Lorenz

equations are highly simplied and do not contain terms

that represent viscous eects; he believes that these terms

would tend to damp out small perturbations.[12]

1 1/2

1

(x0 ) . For rational , after a nite number of

sin

iterations xn maps into a periodic sequence. But almost

all are irrational, and, for irrational , xn never repeats

itself it is non-periodic. This solution equation clearly

demonstrates the two key features of chaos stretching

and folding: the factor 2n shows the exponential growth of

stretching, which results in sensitive dependence on initial

conditions (the buttery eect), while the squared sine

function keeps xn folded within the range [0, 1].

for some positive parameter a. The denition does not

require that all points from a neighborhood separate from

the base point x, but it requires one positive Lyapunov

exponent.

The simplest mathematical framework exhibiting sensitive dependence on initial conditions is provided by a particular parametrization of the logistic map:

xn+1 = 4xn (1 xn ), 0 x0 1,

The buttery eect presents an obvious challenge to prediction, since initial conditions for a system such as the which, unlike most chaotic maps, has a closed-form soweather can never be known to complete accuracy. This lution:

problem motivated the development of ensemble forecasting, in which a number of forecasts are made from

xn = sin2 (2n )

perturbed initial conditions.[8]

Illustration

4 Examples

its initial conditions, together with sensitive dependence

on initial conditions, are the two main ingredients for

chaotic motion. They have the practical consequence of

making complex systems, such as the weather, dicult to

predict past a certain time range (approximately a week in

the case of weather) since it is impossible to measure the

starting atmospheric conditions completely accurately.

A dynamical system displays sensitive dependence on initial conditions if points arbitrarily close together separate

over time at an exponential rate. The denition is not

topological, but essentially metrical.

can easily be demonstrated in standard weather prediction

models, for example.[13]

The potential for sensitive dependence on initial conditions (the buttery eect) has been studied in a number

of cases in semiclassical and quantum physics including

atoms in strong elds and the anisotropic Kepler problem.[14][15] Some authors have argued that extreme (exponential) dependence on initial conditions is not expected

in pure quantum treatments;[16][17] however, the sensitive

dependence on initial conditions demonstrated in classical motion is included in the semiclassical treatments

developed by Martin Gutzwiller[18] and Delos and coworkers.[19]

Other authors suggest that the buttery eect can be observed in quantum systems. Karkuszewski et al. consider the time evolution of quantum systems which have

slightly dierent Hamiltonians. They investigate the level

If M is the state space for the map f t , then f t displays of sensitivity of quantum systems to small changes in their

3

given Hamiltonians.[20] Poulin et al. presented a quantum algorithm to measure delity decay, which measures the rate at which identical initial states diverge

when subjected to slightly dierent dynamics. They

consider delity decay to be the closest quantum analog to the (purely classical) buttery eect.[21] Whereas

the classical buttery eect considers the eect of a

small change in the position and/or velocity of an object in a given Hamiltonian system, the quantum buttery eect considers the eect of a small change in

the Hamiltonian system with a given initial position and

velocity.[22][23] This quantum buttery eect has been

demonstrated experimentally.[24] Quantum and semiclassical treatments of system sensitivity to initial conditions

are known as quantum chaos.[16][22]

See also

Actuality and potentiality

Avalanche eect

Behavioral cusp

Buttery eect in popular culture

Cascading failure

Causality

Chain reaction

Clapotis

Determinism

Domino eect

Dynamical systems

Fractal

Great Stirrup Controversy

Innovation buttery

Kessler syndrome

Law of unintended consequences

Point of divergence

Positive feedback

Representativeness heuristic

Ripple eect

Snowball eect

Trac congestion

Tropical cyclogenesis

6 References

[1] Some Historical Notes: History of Chaos Theory

[2] Steves, Bonnie; Maciejewski, AJ (September 2001). The

Restless Universe Applications of Gravitational N-Body

Dynamics to Planetary Stellar and Galactic Systems. USA:

CRC Press. ISBN 0750308222. Retrieved January 6,

2014.

[3] Mathis, Nancy (2007). Storm Warning: The Story of a

Killer Tornado. Touchstone. p. x. ISBN 978-0-74328053-2.

[4] Lorenz, Edward N. (March 1963). Deterministic

Nonperiodic Flow.

Journal of the Atmospheric

Sciences

20

(2):

130141.

Bibcode:1963JAtS...20..130L.

doi:10.1175/15200469(1963)020<0130:DNF>2.0.CO;2.

ISSN 15200469. Retrieved 3 June 2010.

[5] Part19. Cs.ualberta.ca. 1960-11-22. Retrieved 201406-08.

[6] Lorenz, Edward N. (1963). The Predictability of Hydrodynamic Flow. Transactions of the New York Academy of

Sciences 25 (4): 409432. Retrieved 1 September 2014.

[7] The Buttery Eects: Variations on a Meme. AP42

...and everything. Retrieved 3 August 2011.

[8] Woods, Austin (2005). Medium-range weather prediction: The European approach; The story of the European

Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. New York:

Springer. p. 118. ISBN 978-0387269283.

[9] Orrell, David; Smith, Leonard; Barkmeijer, Jan; Palmer,

Tim (2001). Model error in weather forecasting. Nonlinear Proc. Geoph. 9: 357371.

[10] Orrell, David (2002). Role of the metric in forecast error

growth: How chaotic is the weather?". Tellus 54A: 350

362. doi:10.3402/tellusa.v54i4.12159.

[11] Orrell, David (2012). Truth or Beauty: Science and the

Quest for Order. New Haven: Yale University Press. p.

208. ISBN 978-0300186611.

[12] Wolfram, Stephen (2002). A New Kind of Science. Wolfram Media. p. 998. ISBN 978-1579550080.

[13] Chaos and Climate. RealClimate. Retrieved 2014-0608.

[14] Heller, E. J.; Tomsovic, S. (July 1993). Postmodern

Quantum Mechanics. Physics Today.

[15] Gutzwiller, Martin C. (1990). Chaos in Classical and

Quantum Mechanics. New York: Springer-Verlag. ISBN

0-387-97173-4.

[16] Rudnick, Ze'ev (January 2008). What is...Quantum

Chaos (PDF). Notices of the American Mathematical Society.

[17] Berry, Michael (1989).

Quantum chaology, not

quantum chaos.

Physica Scripta 40 (3): 335.

Bibcode:1989PhyS...40..335B.

doi:10.1088/00318949/40/3/013.

[18] Gutzwiller, Martin C. (1971). Periodic Orbits and Classical Quantization Conditions. Journal of Mathematical Physics 12 (3): 343. Bibcode:1971JMP....12..343G.

doi:10.1063/1.1665596.

[19] Gao, J. & Delos, J. B. (1992).

Closed-orbit

theory of oscillations in atomic photoabsorption cross sections in a strong electric eld.

II.

Derivation of formulas. Phys. Rev. A 46 (3):

14551467.

Bibcode:1992PhRvA..46.1455G.

doi:10.1103/PhysRevA.46.1455.

[20] Karkuszewski, Zbyszek P.; Jarzynski, Christopher;

Zurek, Wojciech H. (2002). Quantum Chaotic Environments, the Buttery Eect, and Decoherence.

Physical Review Letters 89 (17): 170405. arXiv:quantph/0111002.

Bibcode:2002PhRvL..89q0405K.

doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.89.170405.

[21] Poulin, David; Blume-Kohout, Robin; Laamme,

Raymond & Ollivier, Harold (2004). Exponential

Speedup with a Single Bit of Quantum Information:

Measuring the Average Fidelity Decay.

Physical

arXiv:quantReview Letters 92 (17): 177906.

ph/0310038.

Bibcode:2004PhRvL..92q7906P.

doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.92.177906. PMID 15169196.

[22] Poulin, David. A Rough Guide to Quantum Chaos

(PDF).

[23] Peres, A. (1995). Quantum Theory: Concepts and Methods. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic.

[24] Lee, Jae-Seung & Khitrin, A. K. (2004).

Quantum amplier:

Measurement with entangled spins.

Journal of Chemical Physics 121

(9):

3949.

Bibcode:2004JChPh.121.3949L.

doi:10.1063/1.1788661.

Further reading

Devaney, Robert L. (2003). Introduction to Chaotic

Dynamical Systems. Westview Press. ISBN 0-81334085-3.

Hilborn, Robert C. (2004). Sea gulls, butteries, and grasshoppers:

A brief history

of the buttery eect in nonlinear dynamAmerican Journal of Physics 72 (4):

ics.

Bibcode:2004AmJPh..72..425H.

425427.

doi:10.1119/1.1636492.

External links

The meaning of the buttery: Why pop culture loves

the 'buttery eect,' and gets it totally wrong, Peter

Dizikes, Boston Globe, June 8, 2008

From buttery wings to single e-mail (Cornell University)

EXTERNAL LINKS

The Chaos Hypertextbook. An introductory primer

on chaos and fractals

ChaosBook.org. Advanced graduate textbook on

chaos (no fractals)

Weisstein, Eric W., Buttery Eect, MathWorld.

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