The Impact of Six Sigma Improvement-A Glimpse into the Future of Statistics

Author(s): Gerald J. Hahn, William J. Hill, Roger W. Hoerl and Stephen A. Zinkgraf
Source: The American Statistician, Vol. 53, No. 3 (Aug., 1999), pp. 208-215
Published by: American Statistical Association
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The Impactof Six Sigma Improvement-AGlimpseInto the

Futureof Statistics
GeraldJ.HAHN, WilliamJ.HILL, Roger W. HOERL, and StephenA. ZINKGRAF
consumingvengeancejust over threeyears ago. We have
and the
investedmore thana billion dollarsin thiseffort,
Six Sigma improvements-ahighlydisciplinedand statis- financialreturnshave now enteredtheexponentialphasetically based approach for removingdefectsfromprod- morethanthreequartersof a billiondollarsin savingsbeucts, processes,and transactions,
involvingeverybodyin yond our investment
in 1998, witha billion and a half in
the corporation-has been adopted as a major initiative sightfor 1999 ... Six Sigma has been an unqualifiedsucby some of our leading companies.This is fundamentally cess."
changingtheparadigmof how statisticsis appliedin busishouldclearly
Witha name like Six Sigma, statisticians
ness and industry,
and has had a career-changing
impact be interested!
In fact,theSix Sigma initiativeis highlystaon thosestatisticians
who have been involved.We describe tisticallybased-even though,as we shallsee,itis notbeing
the Six Sigma initiativeand its evolution,the enthusiastic led principallyby statisticians.
Moreover,its emergenceis
and visionarysupportby the CEOs at some major corpo- havinga profoundimpacton our careers.And, most imrationsthathave embracedit, its successes to date, and portantly,
it is a precursorto the way statisticianswill be
theimpacton statisticsand statisticians.
We thenturnto a workingin the future,even in operationsthatare not exmajor theme-what statisticians
mustdo to be maximally plicitlyinvolvedin Six Sigma, or even in buildinga prodin this excitingnew environment.
effective
These changes uct. We describethe Six Sigma initiative,its impact,and
will notbe limitedto thecompaniesthathave adoptedSix thewaysin whichstatisticians
can be mostresponsiveboth
Sigma, or, for thatmatter,industry,
but are all-pervasive. now and in thefuture.These commentsare based upon our
We discuss the dramaticlongertermimplicationson our combinedexperienceat fourcompanies(AlliedSignal,GE,
profession.
Motorola,and Polaroid) heavilycommittedto makingSix
a
KEY WORDS: Change;Leadership;New paradigm;Pro- Sigma reality.
cess improvement;
Quality.
2. WHAT IS SIX SIGMA QUALITY AND WHAT IS
IT ACHIEVING?
1. INTRODUCTION-WHY

THIS ARTICLE?

The Six Sigma improvementinitiative(Smith 1991;

Harry1994) is havinga majorimpacton theculture,operation,and profitability
of some of our nation'slargestcompanies,includingAsea BrownBavari (ABB), AlliedSignal,
GE, Lockheed-Martin,
Motorola,Polaroid, and Texas Instruments.
The resultshavebeenimpressive.The Six Sigma
initiativewas at least one key factorin Motorolawinning
thecoveted1988 Malcolm BaldrigeAwardforQuality,and
producedreportedsavings of over $940 millionin three
years.Additionally,
AlliedSignalreportedan estimatedsavings of $1.5 billionfromits Six Sigma initiative(per the
company's 1997 annual report).Finally,in its 1998 Annual Report,GE ChairmanJackWelch and his associates
state that "We plungedinto Six Sigma with a companyGeraldJ.Hahn is Managerand Coolidge Fellow,AppliedStatisticsProgram,GE CorporateResearchand Development,P.O. Box 8, Schenectady,
NY 12301 (Email: hahn@crd.ge.com).WilliamJ.Hill is AlliedSignalFellow and Director,Six SigmaMasterBlack Belt Program,BuffaloResearch
Laboratory,AlliedSignal,20 Peabody Street,Buffalo,NY 14210. Roger
W. Hoerl is QualityLeader,GE CorporateAuditStaff,3135 EastonTurnpike,Fairfield,CT 06431. StephenA. Zinkgrafis ChiefExecutiveOfficer,
Sigma Breakthrough
Technologies,Inc.TM, 400 W. Hopkins Street,San
Marcos,TX 78666. The authorsthanktheeditor,associateeditor,and two
refereesfor theirnumeroushelpfulsuggestionsthathave improvedthis
article,and manycolleagues who have impactedour thinking.

208

TheAmerican7
Statistician,
August1999, Vol.53, No. 3

2.1 The Basic Concept of Six Sigma

The Financial Times (Oct. 10, 1997) definesthe Six
Sigma initiativeas "a programmeaimed at the neareliminationof defects from every product,process and
transaction."
This conceptwas introducedat and popularized by Motorolain 1987 (Harry1994) in theirquest to reelectronicsproducts.A brief
duce defectsof manufactured
historyof theevolutionof Six Sigma can be foundin Harry
means
(1998). Whenused as a metric,Six Sigmatechnically
havingno morethan3.4 defectsper millionopportunities,
in any process,product,or service.Statisticiansmay nolimitssix standarddeviations
tice thathavingspecification
away fromthe averageof an assumednormaldistribution
will notresultin 3.4 defectsper million.The numberis arrivedat by assumingthat,in additionto randomvariability,
theprocessaveragedriftsoverthelongtermby 1.5 standard
to controlit.This results
deviations,despiteourbestefforts
in a one-sidedintegration
underthe normalcurvebeyond
4.5 standarddeviations-an area of about 3.4/1,000,000.
is the conMore important
thanthe technicaldefinition
cept of Six Sigma as a disciplined,quantitativeapproach
forimprovement-basedon definedmetrics-in manufacturing,service,or financialprocesses.This drivestheprocess of selectingprojectsbased on theirpotentialto improve
and trainingtheright
performance
metrics,and identifying
people to get the business results.Projects follow a dis-

(?

1999 AmericanStatisticalAssociationl

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ciplinedprocess of fourmacro phases: Measure,Analyze, ity and thatSix Sigma could take GE to the nextlevel of
Improve,and Control(MAIC). Sometimesa preliminary performance-ifthe programwas focusedon gettingtanDefinestepis added; thisrelatesto appropriateselectionof gible businessresults.In short,the sense of urgencyhas to
projects,problemdefinition,
and definingthe metricswith be createdby the company'sseniorleadershipand aggrestheirbaselineand entitlement
(optimal)levels.For example, sivelydeployedto thelowestlevel of theorganization.
at AlliedSignalmetricsincludeCost of Poor Quality,Rolled
The mainfocusof Six Sigma in thesecompanieswas iniThroughput
Yield, and CapacityProductivity,
and methods tiallyon manufacturing,
and specificallyon cost and waste
fortheirvalid estimation.The purposeof each step in the reduction,on yieldimprovement,
and on operationswhere
MAIC processis:
to improvecapacitywithoutmajorcapthereis opportunity
Therewas also strongemphasison underital expenditure.
* Measure-select the appropriateresponses(the "Y's")
customerneeds. In addition,as orstandingand satisfying
to be improved,based on customerinputsand otherconsidganizationsrealized how large the financialimpactcould
erations(such as productyield),ensurethattheyare quanbe on nonmanufacturing
processes,thesehave been heavily
tifiable,and thatwe can accuratelymeasurethem.Deteremphasized.More on thislater.
mine what is unacceptableperformance(i.e., a "defect").
Performancemetricsare establishedthatdirectlymeaGatherpreliminary
data to gauge currentperformance.
in cost, quality,yield,and capacity.
sure the improvement
* Analyze-analyze the preliminarydata to document
Contraryto some "TQM" initiatives,financialfiguresare
currentperformance(baseline process capability),and to
requiredbothto selectprojectsand to evaluatesuccess,and
rootcauses of defects(i.e., the "X's", or
beginidentifying
metricsare trackedrigorously.
performance
independentvariables) and theirimpact,and act accordProjects are typicallytargetedfor at least $50,000 aningly.
nual impacts.At AlliedSignal,theinitialprojectsgenerally
* Improve-determinehow to intervenein the process
exceeded $1 millionin benefits,and many new projects
to significantly
reducethe defectlevels. Several roundsof
are stillof thismagnitude.Practitioners
(engineers,accounimprovements
maybe required.Recently,special emphasis
to work
and so on) are identified
tants,computerscientists,
has been givento reducingvariability.
on theseprojects50% to 100% of theirtime,withhelpfrom
* Control-once the desired improvements
have been
otherteammembers.These people are givenvariousnames
made,put a systemintoplace to ensurethe improvements
in different
companies,such as "Black Belts" (GE, Moare sustained,even thoughsignificantresourcesmay no
torola,Allied Signal), or "VariabilityReductionLeaders"
longerbe focusedon theproblem
(Polaroid).We will referto themas Black Belts (BBs).
The BBs take four to five weeks of intensive,highly
The major elementsof Six Sigma implementation
are
strongleadership,initialfocus on operations,clear perfor- quantitativetraining,roughlycorrespondingto the four
mance metrics,aggressiveprojectselection,and selecting macrostepsof theSix Sigma methodology.
They are asked
ofand trainingthe rightpeople. The initiativeis drivenby to bringtheirlaptopcomputersforin-classdeployment,
leaders at the highestlevels of the organization-suchas ten usingExcel, Minitab,or the simulationpackage CrystheCEOs of GE (JackWelch),Motorola(Bob Galvin),and tal Ball. Each week of trainingis typicallyseparatedby
AlliedSignal (LarryBossidy)-and permeatesthroughall threeor fourweeks for applicationof the learnings/tools
levels of managementand operations.This is notjust cor- to theBBs' projects-see Figure1 fora typicalcourseoutand teamleadership
rea- line. Softtools suchas communication
poratePR, and is, withoutquestion,themostimportant
son forsuccess. These key leadershave createda sense of skills are generallypart of the curriculum.The "price of
urgencyfora radicalculturechange.But how did theybe- admission"is a significant
projectimpactingthe business'
come committedin thefirstplace?
bottomline. These projectstypicallyare derivedfromthe
Of course, we don't know for sure, but we do know businessunit'sstrategicplans and goals.
thatin the early 1980s, Motorolawas at risk of losing its
The initialtrainingcourses in the companyare usually
semi-conductor
businessto Japanesecompetitors.
Simulta- conductedby an externalexpert(e.g., at GE by the Six
neously,Motorolaseniormanagementacknowledgedless- Sigma Academy's Mikel Harry). The studentstypically
than-satisfactory
productquality.In response,Galvin pro- are futureBBs, managerial"Champions,"and carefullysemotedthe developmentof Six Sigma to keep Motorolain lected MasterBlack Belts (MBBs), includingsome statisticians. The MBBs then take over the responsibilityfor
business.
LarryBossidy,upontakingovera complexand "average- trainingthe Black Belts in theirown businessoperations,
createdthe vision of AlliedSignal forprovidingoverallleadership,and forservingas change
qualitymanufacturer,"
as a premiercompanyand used Six Sigma as one of the agents.Six Sigma "Champions"providemanagerialsupprimaryvehicles to achieve thatpositiveimage while at portin termsof projectselectionand evaluation,selection
thesame timecreatingbottomline growthand productivity of MBBs and BBs, and removalof barriersto success.
In 1995,BossidyaddressedtheGE Executive
improvement.
Upon completionof the firstproject,preferablywithin
Counciland impressedthoseleaderswithSix Sigma and its fourmonths,the BB moves on to a new projectrepeating
veryreal and significant
financialresults.
the deploymentof the tools in the MAIC sequence. Good
While GE hadimplemented
severalmajorinitiatives
(e.g., practicerequirestheBBs to formallyand regularlyreport
Workout)overtheyears,JackWelchrealizedthatimproved out on theseprojectsto management.
Also, projectreviews
qualitycould providea substantialboost to GE profitabil- are partof thetraining.
TheAmericanStatisticiacn,
August1999, Vol.53, No. 3

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209

Weeki
- Six Sigma Overview& the MAIC
Roadmap
- Process Mapping
- QFD (QualityFunctionDeployment)
- FMEA (Failure Mode and Effects
Analysis)
- OrganizationalEffectivenessConcepts
- Basic Stats Using Minitab
- Process Capability
- MeasurementSystems Analysis
Week 2
- Review of Key Week 1 Topics
- StatisticalThinking
- HypothesisTestingand Confidence
Intervals(F, t,etc.)
- Correlation
- Multi-varn
Analysis and Regression
- Team Assessment

Week3
- ANOVA
- DOE (Design of Experiments)
* FactorialExperiments
* FractionalFactorials
* Balanced Block Designs
* Response Surface Designs
- MultipleRegression
- FacilitationTools

Week 4
-

ControlPlans

Mistake-Proofing
Team Development
Parallel Special Discrete,
Continuous Process,
Administration
and Design Tracks
Final Exercise

Notes:
1)Project reviewsare done each day in
weeks 1-4
2. Hands-on exercises on most days
3. Three weeks of applied timebetween sessions

Figure 1. Six Sigma -Typical BB TrainingCurriculum.

Green Belts (GBs) receivereducedtraining-six to ten

with
days,forexample.Like theBBs, theyenterthetraining
a charteredprojectimportantto theiroperation'ssuccess.
UnliketheBBs, however,theGBs do notspendthepreponderanceof theirtimeon Six Sigma projects.Many hourly
workersin financialoperations,factories,and so on, have
also been trained,using the titlesof Yellow Belts (YBs).
trainTheymayreceivea totalof-four
daysof introductory
ing on theMAIC toolsto assiston BB or GB teams,or conare intended
ducttheirown projects.These trainingefforts
to geteveryoneinvolvedin Six Sigma,withtheobjectiveof
in theirwork
havingeveryemployeemake improvements
processesa normal,everydaypartof thejob.
While thetoolsare notnew,theSix Sigma approachadds
considerablevalue to the use of existingtools. Its advantages include:
* Providingan overall "roadmap;"that is, a multistep
approach to integratingthe tools appropriately(MAIC).
Many have commentedthattheircollege statisticscourses
leftthemconfusedaboutwhytheyneededto learnvarious
statisticaltools, and how theyfittogether.The Six Sigma
roadmaphelps to make thisclear,and has enabled practitionersto readilyapply the tools to real problems,using
readilyaccessible software.
* Stressingthe need to understandand reducevariation,
versusonlyestimatingit.
* Emphasizinga data-basedapproach to management,
versusgutfeel or intuition.Six Sigma requiresthatevery210

thingbe quantified,even "intangibles"such as customer

opinions.
* Developingstandardizedvocabulary,
metrics,and tools
highlydiversecompanies.
throughout
2.2 The Evolutionof Six Sigma Quality Beyond
Manufacturingand Quality
Althoughmostof theinitialemphasisof Six Sigma was
it is now bein manufacturing,
for qualityimprovement
and beyond
ing appliedin keyareas beyondmanufacturing,
be considered"quality."Emphasis
whatwould traditionally
in these areas has, in fact,recentlyacceleratedwith the
aim of ensuringthatcustomersalso reap thebenefitof Six
Sigma. For example,AlliedSignalhas developedits commercializationthrustaroundSix Sigma concepts,voice of
the customer,value chain analysis,and customersatisfaction.The focusis on gettinggood data on customerrequirements,and on reducingfailuresand variationin product
AlliedSignalalso
design,scale-up,and commercialization.
has significantSix Sigma initiativesongoingin financial
and businessservices.
Similarly,at GeneralElectrictherehas been a majorfocus on whatis called CommercialSix Sigma. This has emphasizedboththeneeds of GE's servicebusinesses(GE InServices,NBC, and themassiveGE Capital Serformation
operationsof GE's manuvices),and thenonmanufacturing
businesses,suchas softwaresystemsand developfacturing
ment,billing,humanresources,and so on. In addition,with
therecognitionthatlong-termsuccess is highlydependent

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on productand servicedesign,therehas been a significant fromone another.Senior leaders recognizethatobtaining

drivein GE forDesign for Six Sigma (DFSS), and, most betterresultsrequiresimprovingtheprocessthatgenerates
recently,
forDesign forReliability(DFR) as a key element theresults-and thatimprovingtheprocessrequiresa disciplined,data-basedapproach,ratherthanthe more tradiof theSix Sigma initiative.
Each of theseextensionshas builton thefoundation
pro- tional"ready,fire,aim" method.This leads directlyto more
vaguestatements,
use of statisticaltools.Similarly,
videdby thebasic Six Sigma conceptsand training,
includ- effective
ing strongemphasison successfulprojectsand quantifica- such as "We thinkwe have thatundercontrol,"or "Perforare no longeraccepted.The
tionof results.Thus, we have seen Six Sigma generalized manceseemsto be improving,"
foruse beyondthetraditional
manufacturing
arenato engi- typicalresponsenow is: "Show me thedata!"
and satisfyingcusThe value placed on understanding
neering,reliability,
financial,
andhumanresourceprocesses.
needs. While most companiesclaim this as a value
forevenbroaderareas such tonmer
Moreover,we see opportunities
already,it has been amazingto us how littlewe reallyknew
as banking.
aboutour customerspriorto Six Sigma. Withtheemphasis
in
on metrics,customerneeds and our currentperformance
2.3 What Have Been The Results?
meetingthemmustbe documented.Formal customerinSix Sigmais workingextremely
well andbuildingfurther teractionsand evaluationshave replacedanecdotes.For exmomentum.Some key reasonsare:
ample,quantitative
measures,such as CustomerSigma and
Quantified
financialimpact.We have alreadymentioned ProductSigma are internallyreportedquarterlyfor most
some reportedpayoffsof theSix Sigma initiativeat various AlliedSignalproductsto assess how well defectsare being
companies.These have been theaccumulationof numerous reduced in manufacturing
and in deliveredproducts.Six
individualprojects.For example,one teamof threeBBs at Sigma qualityor 3.4 defectsper millionopportunities
is
an AlliedSignalsitereturnedmorethan$25 millionin cost thegoal.
on one project alone.
savings and capacityimprovement
Combiningthe rightprojects,the rightpeople, and the
GE's 1997 annual reportlists numerousspecificsavings: righttools. Statisticaltools are clearlypowerful,but only
$70 millionin productivity
gains foraircraftengines;$44 if used by therightpeople on therightprojectsin theright
millionin savings for appliances; $60 millionin new in- manner.When companieshave stressedtools per se, the
surancewrittenfromone customer;$47 millionbenefitsin resultshave, sometimes,been unimportant,
perhapseven
lightingproducts;$42 millionin productivity
improvements trivial,applications.By trivial,we mean thatthe tools did
formedical systems;$137 millionforengineeredplastics; notlead to majorbusinessresults.We have seentremendous
and so on. In his addressat the GE Company1997 annual synergyin carefullyselectingthemostimportant
projects,
meeting,JackWelchaddedthat"Six Sigmahas gonein less and gettingthemosttalentedpeople properlytrainedto apthantwoyearsfrombeingan alien concept,fullof complex ply the appropriatestatistical(and nonstatistical)
tools to
calculationsand unfamiliar
jargon,to a consumingpassion theseprojects.A key lesson learnedis thattrainingis ensweepingacross thecompany."USA Today(July21, 1998) hancedtremendously
applying
by directlyand immediately
providesfurther
examples,includingones fromRaytheon the materiallearnedto a real project-as requiredfor Six
and Lockheed-Martin.
Sigma training.Also, managementhas insistedthatcanContinuedtopmanagement
The didates for significant
supportand enthusiasm.
Six Sigma roles, such as BBs and
supportby top companyleaders for the Six Sigma ini- MBBs be the most highlyregardedpeople in the busitiativeremainsunabated.Accordingto GE's 1997 annual ness,not simply"warmbodies" who were available.Thus,
report,"Six Sigma trainingis now an ironcladprerequi- projectand people selectionhave been just as important
to
site forpromotionto any professionalor managerialposi- achievingresultsas use of thepropertools.
tionin the company-and a requirement
forany award of
To put mattersinto perspective,USA Today (July21,
stockoptions.Seniorexecutivecompensationis now heav- 1998) in an articletitled"Firms aim for Six Sigma Effiand success." ciency,"stated"Today,dependingon whom you listento,
ily weightedtowardSix Sigma commitment
In addition,all professional,supervisoryand managerial Six Sigma eitheris a revolutionslashingtrillionsof dolemployeesmust,as a minimum,be green-belttrainedand lars fromcorporateinefficiency,
or it's themostmaddening
have done a projectby the end of 1998-and this,indeed, managementfadyetdevisedto keep front-line
workerstoo
has happened.Thus,JackWelchhas made it clear,by word busycollectingdata to do theirjobs." The articlethenproand deed, thatif you are notenthusiasticabout Six Sigma, vides evidence on both sides of the argument.Although
GE is simplynot the rightcompanyfor you. All of this we cannotpredictspecificallywhatdirectiontheSix Sigma
does wondersin drivinginvolvement
and enthusiasmat all initiativewill take in thefuture,we are convincedthatthe
levels of theorganization.
of
approachthatis thefoundation
disciplined,data-oriented
The emphasison a quantitative
and disciplinedapproach Six Sigma will surviveand flourish.
to process improvement.
Using the MAIC approachconand Statisticians
sistentlyacross diversebusinesses and processes has al- 2.4 Six Sigma,Statistics,
lowed thesebusinessesto leveragethepowerof thetools to
Statisticsprovidesa major backbonefor the Six Sigma
achievesignificant
tangiblebusinessresults.Six Sigma has initiative.It is mostgratifying,
and sometimesamazing,to
become a commonlanguagefordifferent
businessunitsto hear engineersor MBAs talk about whatdata is needed to
talk to one another,sharesuccesses and failures,and learn "identifythe key X's thatimpactthe Y's." A decade ago,
August1999, Vol.53, No. 3
Statistician,
The Americani

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211

people in our companiesidentified

DOE as theDepartment anyhow?Also, shouldn'twe be concernedabout the comof Energy;todayeverybodyequates it withthe "designof plexityand missionof the system,and shouldn'twe have
In fact,itis commonpracticeto boastto man- different
for,say, a dishwasherfroman airrequirements
experiments."
agementthatthis or thatresultwas obtainedvia a DOE. craftengine?(Of course,we should.) Shouldn'tsome Y's
Statisticaland relatedmethodsare being used extensively be weightedheavierthanothers,even withinthesame proby Six Sigma companies,andby literallythousandsofprac- cess? We findthatsuch discussionsrarelyarise in real aptitionerssystematically
usingstatisticson focusedprojects plications.In practice,fewprocessesactuallyoperateat or
yieldingsignificant
financialresults.
near Six Sigma-even thoughwe mightlike themto. Inwill serveas a leaderto drivethe
One mightbe temptedto conclude thatthe Six Sigma stead,thenew statistician
focus of Six Sigma-that of eleinitiativeis thebrainchildof statisticians,
thatstatisticians real and more important
playedthekey role in its introduction,
and in general,that vatingthe importanceof satisfyingcustomers'needs and
approachto gaining
statisticiansare livingin a stateof exaltedreverence.Al- usinga highlydisciplined,quantitative
thoughwe mightlike to believe theseto be the facts,they improvements.
are not. In general,the originatorsand driversof the Six 3.2 Participatein the Changes
Sigma initiativehave been predominantly
engineersand
in ourcompanieshas certainlybeen
The Six Sigma effort
managers-and notstatisticians.
One reasonsforthisis bea
boost
to
statisticians.
However,as previously
professional
cause statisticianstendedto be more techniques-oriented
noted,most of the statisticalwork is being done without
thanbusinessvision-oriented.
Anotheris thatstatisticians,
This has beenmadepossibleby thewidespread
statisticians.
as principallystaffresources,werenotexpectedto generate
availabilityof easy-to-usestatisticalsoftware.In fact,when
culturechange.
in our
one considersthemagnitudeof theSix Sigma effort
The overwhelmingmajorityof Six Sigma trainersand
one soon concludesthatit is simplynot feacorporations,
leaderstodayare not statisticians,
and statisticiansare not
There
sible forprofessionalstatisticiansto do everything.
directlyconsultedabouttheproperuse of statisticalmethjust are not enough of us to go around!In addition,this
ods on most projects.Thus, we conjecturethatwhile the would
defeatthe whole purposeof tryingto get everyone
use of statisticalmethodsmay have increasedsubstantially involved.We recognizethatthe consequencemightnotbe
in our companiessince the adventof Six Sigma, the num- an optimumanalysisin most instances.However,statistiber of professionalstatisticianshas not changeddramati- cians need to recognizethatan optimum-as opposed to
cally (althoughtheirforceshave been augmentedby exter- a reasonable-analysis is oftenjust not thatvital,or even
nal consultants).
This is notto say thatstatisticians
have not cost-effective.
A good generalstrategyoftenis to identify
been activelyengagedin Six Sigma projects,but onlythat and helptrainknowledgeableengineersor businesspersons
themassivenumberof ongoingprojectsdoes notpermitthe to become the "local statisticalgurus."Ideally,thesepeoroutineinvolvement
of professionalstatisticians.
AlliedSig- ple would respondto mostissues on site,but consultwith
nal maybe an exceptionrelativeto training,
sincein one of professionalstatisticians
whenneeded.
the threemajor businessgroupingsstatisticians
have been
We have also foundthatafterSix Sigma is goingstrong,
amongthelead trainersof MBBs, BBs, and GBs. In short, statisticians
are highlysoughtafterand valued.Statisticians
even thoughthis may be the next generationor, possibly who are willingto takea leadershiprole are oftenrequested
even a "golden age of statistics"in businessand industry, by thebusinessto aid in toughand vitalprojects.In several
it is not necessarilya golden age for applied statisticians, cases at AlliedSignaland GE, professionalstatisticiansin
at least notin termsof massiveutilizationor hiring.
a centralgroupwere asked to relocateto the businessfor
threeto six monthsto lead important
projects.
improvement
3. STATISTICIANS' RESPONSE TO SIX SIGMA
In essence,statisticians
are now "pulled"in by thebusiness,
The Six Sigma initiativeis significantly
pushof thepast.Ratherthanstatisimpactingthe insteadof thetraditional
andtrying
to convince
lives of statisticians
in thecompaniesinvolved.In thissec- ticiansschedulingstatisticaltraining,
are
the
businesses
to
scheduling
training.
people
attend,
tion we provide recommendations,
based on our experiof supabout
lack
who
Statisticians
complained
previously
in thenew
can be mosteffective
ences,on how statisticians
demand
are
now
overwhelmed
with
(a
good
problem
port
environment.
Moreover,most applied statisticianscan exthem. to have!)-though, often,in a less hands-oncapacity.The
pect similarchanges,if theyare notyetencountering
is notthatSix Sigma is passingus by,
We considertheselargerimplicationsin thenextsection. key point,therefore,
butratherthatit has changedtheparadigmof how we add
3.1 Do Not Get Bogged Down on TechnicalDetails
witha strongsense
value.Fromourexperience,statisticians
A traditionalstatistician'sinitialresponseto Six Sigma of how a businessis run and a firmgrasp on engineering
may be to focus on technicaldetails.For example,where conceptswill be the most successful.In a leadershiprole,
will findthata backgroundin businessconcepts
is the proof that all processes shiftexactly 1.5 standard statisticians
into
deviationsfromthemean-as factoredintothe 3.4 defects will provideinsightsintoleveragingSix Sigma efforts
permillionopportunities
calculation?(Of course,thereisn't big businessresults.
one; it is a rule of thumbbased upon Motorola's experience.) And exactlywhat do 3.4 parts defectiveper mil- 3.3 Contributeto the Effort
lion opportunities
mean if the sample size of opportuni- Relievedof manyof theday-to-daytasksof routinedata
ties is less thana million?And what is an "opportunity" analysis,statisticians
become availableto make key contri212

General

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as, forexample,theanalysisof censoreddata.Professional

can provideimportant
guidancehere,although
statisticians
be
to a statisticianat
work
may
"outsourced"
some of the
be
to
help buildknowlOur goal should
a local university.
is steadily
involvement
for
our
future
the
need
Help lead and improvethe training.First,statisticians edge so that
are
of speproblems
that
is
that
of
The
second
case
reduced.
have a majorrole to play in "trainingthe trainers."Statisis
often
that
case,
there
company.
In
to
the
ticians may trainMaster Black Belts in useful advanced cial criticality
with
statistician
and
an
in-house
to
outsource,
a
reluctance
methodsso thatMBBs are betterpreparedwhentheytrain
knowledge
operational
domain,
and
the
necessary
business,
BBs. In fact,at both AlliedSignal and GE, some statisticians are themselvesMBBs, and are activelyengaged in can expeditethedriveto a speedyand correctsolution.
Look towardthefutureand be a force towardproactivetraining.Second, a major aspect of improvedtrainingis
ness.
As we become less involvedin "day-to-day"crises,
exto identifyand add important
topicsthatare currently
we
need
to play a moresubstantialrole in helpingdevelop
ExcludedfromtheSix Sigma qualitytrainingcurriculum.
a
framework
thatwill proactivelyavoid crises in the fuamplesincludegreateremphasison graphicaltools,reliabilture.
One
critical
area is thatof helpingbuild qualityand
ityimprovement
tools,data qualityissues, advancedDOE,
and services up front(see Hahn
into
products
reliability
and requirementsfor valid data-basedinvestigations(indo
this,
we mustseek new tools and
and
Hoerl
1998).
To
betweenanalyticand enucludingDeming's differentiation
in
and be willingto
such
applications,
that
work
techniques
merativestudies).At the same time,we should push for
These should
projects.
these
on
important
and
pilot
promote
some topics,such as statisticalsignificance
de-emphasizing
into
and training.
process
then
be
the
Six
Sigma
integrated
tests-an unfortunate
carry-overfromthe traditionalelethe develin
will
also
require
areas
this
and
other
Success
mentarystatisticscourse.We wouldsuggesta greaterfocus
for
cost
avoidance.
future
of
metrics
appropriate
opment
on confidenceintervals-theseachieve the aim of formal
is technicalguidancein ensuringthe
hypothesistesting,oftenprovideadditionalusefulinforma- Anotheropportunity
and easy-to-use'databases
establishment
of
comprehensive
tion,and are not as easily misinterpreted.
thatprovideearlywarningof problemsand help us underDevelop user-robust
tools.As dataanalysesareconducted standtheirrootcauses. Companiesimplementing
Six Sigma
moreand moreby nonstatisticians,
it becomes our respon- have foundthattheinabilityof existingdatabasesto track
methodsand software. and analyzetheperformance
sibilityto provide "user-friendly"
metricsis oftena majorweakThis includesdevelopingmethodsthatare reasonablyeasy ness.Frequently,
suchdatabasesbecomecriticalto therapid
to use and to understand-forexample,simulation-based identification
ofpotentialcrises,and enabletheorganization
approaches-in a formthat minimizesthe likelihood of to move out of the "fire-fighting"
mode. Theoretically,
the
misuse.Also, we need to documentthese tools in a man- databasesshouldbe proactively
upgraded,butthisissue has
nerthatmakes thembothreadilyunderstandable
and easy generallybeen addressedonlywhentheinadequaciesof the
to implement,
includingprovidingguidanceto help explain current
databasespreventprogress.Because of statisticians'
theoutputs.Whilemostcommercialstatisticalpackagesare understanding
betweendata quantityand
of the difference
becomingeasier to use, theyare all too oftenveryeasy to data quality,we can providesignificant
value in thedesign
misuse,as well. For example,some popularpackages will of databases and measurement
systemsfornew processes,
froma ResolutionIII de- in additionto theretrofit
calculateand plottheinteractions
of existingones.
are
sign,withoutwarningthatthese in factconfoundedwith
themaineffects!
4. LONGER TERM IMPLICATIONS OF SIX
SIGMA: THE FUTURE OF STATISTICS AND
Become personally involvedin the more complexand
STATISTICIANS
moreimportant
problems.Althoughstatisticiansare being
butionsin thoseareas wheretheirtalentsare mostuniquely
required.We commenton some of thebroaderelementsin
the next section.In those companieswhere Six Sigma is
to:
alreadya way of life,we urgestatisticians

replacedby Black Belts and GreenBelts in manyday-toroleto playin

day Six Sigmaprojects,we havean important
two areas.The firstis in problemsthatare technicallycomtendto
plex. Initialwaves of Six Sigma projectsrightfully
be directedat reapingtheproverbial"low-hanging
fruit"oftenrequiringrelativelystraightforward
methods.Thus,
the initialprojectsmay aim to reduce scrap and rework
in factories,or outright
blundersin accountingoperations.
the
focus
switches
to such thingsas increasingcaNext,
pacity,minimizing"dead on arrival"and "infantmortality"
fieldfailuresfor products,or makingbetterdecisions on
creditapplications.Eventually,theemphasismustmove to
more proactiveprojects,such as enhancingoverall product life,or optimizinginventory
management.As our Y's
(using Six Sigma terminology)
move out in time,boththe
neededdata and therequiredassessmentsbecome moreinvolved and will requiremore complex assessments-such

4.1 A New Paradigm

of Six Sigma in our companiesis
The implementation
fundamentally
changingthe paradigmof how statisticsis
We believe thesechanges
appliedin businessand industry.
pointto thefuturedirectionof theentirefieldof statistics,
for statisticsnot only in
and will impactthe environment
businessesthatpracticeSix Sigma,butin all businesses.In
will notbe limitedto
addition,we believetheramifications
but
will
manyotherenimpact
businesses,
manufacturing
and govsuch
as
academia,
banking,healthcare,
terprises,
ernment.
have operated,to a
In thepast,manyappliedstatisticians
large degree,as data analysts.The specificchangeswe see
to thisparadigmincludethe need for exertingmore leadershipand takinga moreholisticapproach(see also Hahn
and Hoerl 1998). The reasonswe feelthatthechangesapply
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213

to the futureof statistics,and will impactvirtuallyall ap- tomersbecome more knowledgeable.Our pointis merely
plied statisticians,
are many.First,theyare logical changes, thatin this arena our role will be less as doers,and more
and appearto workbetter.Second,theyare consistentwith as expertguides.
the changesoccurringin our environment
thatare beyond
our control,such as theinformation
technologyrevolution. 4.3 A HolisticApproach
Third,the methodologyof Six Sigma is generic;it can be
More importantthan data analysis in today's environis theabilityto takea holisapplied not only to profit-seeking
companies,but also to ment,and harderto out-source,
any activitywhichis concernedwithcost, timeliness,and tic approachto problemsolving,and to help othersdo the
qualityof results,includingsuch important
applicationar- same. By "holisticapproach"we mean a disciplined,oband diagnosinga
eas as healthcareand the nationalcensus. Academia will jectiveapproachto accuratelyidentifying
also need to adapt to thesechangesto stayrelevant.In the problem,and developinga multistepstrategyto resolveit.
case of statisticsdepartments,
thiswill notonlyincludethe An excellentexample,thoughnota Six Sigma programper
trainingof statisticians,
butalso thecoursesfornonstatisti- se, can be foundin Sematech'smultistepapproachto prothesechanges cess qualification
(SpencerandTobias 1995). This goes way
cians. Fourth,and perhapsmostimportantly,
are now beingdrivenby theleadersof some of our largest beyondidentifying
theappropriatetool to analyzea particand mostinfluential
companies.Therefore,"just sayingno" ular dataset,and is thereal unique value added by the Six
is not an option.
Sigma approach.While the scientificmethodteaches the
importanceof data,it does notin itselfteachscientistshow
data in lightof variation.Knowledge
to properlyinterpret
4.2 A Broader Leadership Role
of statisticaltools is needed here.In addition,few profesStatisticiansstill have significant
roles to play; in fact, sions,withindustrialengineeringa possible exception,are
theseare moreimportant
roles thaneverbefore.However, routinelytaughtmultistepapproachesto problemsolving.
theserolesare moreas "leaders"thanas "doers."For exam- Unfortunately,
moststatisticians
are notpreparedforholisple, we can influencetrainingcurriculaforthousands.We ticproblemsolvingin theirformaltraining,
despitethefact
can proposethe"right"softwarepackages to management; thattheyhave powerfultools to do it.
we can mentortheBlack Belts and GreenBelts on theirkey
projects;we can identify
bestpracticesto be shared-not to 4.4 ChangingManagementExpectations
outside resources
mentionreviewingprojects,identifying
Anotherkey changehas been the end of whattwo of us
to bringin as needed, and gettingpersonallyinvolvedin (Hahn and Hoerl 1998) havedescribedas theera of "benign
leadingparticularly
difficult
or important
undertakings.
We neglect"of statisticians
by management.In some cases in
in the futurewill spendmore timeon the past,managementhas paid the bills, but did not show
believe statisticians
thesetasks,and less timeanalyzingdata.
much interestin what statisticiansactuallydid, and proThis change of focus presentsa challengeto the pro- vided themlimitedexposure.This is certainlynotthesitufession.Statisticiansare typicallytaughthow to plan ex- ationtoday.Most industrialstatisticians
are definitely
"on
perimentsand analyze data, but may be lean on leader- the firingline,"and thosethatare not are proneto downlike others,are directlyaccountablefor
ship skills,and, therefore,
may feel both unpreparedand sizing.Statisticians,
in exertinga broaderrole. If the preced- financialresultsof projects,have broad visibility,and are
uncomfortable
to management.This requires
ing sounds familiarit should. Deming (1986) and his as- makingmore presentations
and to be able to resociates(e.g.,Joiner1985) have consistently
urgedus to be themto be outstanding
communicators,
"statisticalleaders."This, by and large,has not happened late statisticalanalysesto thingsmanagerscare aboutmost
(Hahn 1995). The role thatwe recommend,thoughbear- strongly,
like cost and sales. It also requiresthemto be
ing importantsimilaritiesto Deming's proposals,is more more selectivein the projectstheyaccept, and to better
focused,and perhapsless ambitious.For example,we do balance completenessof the statisticalanalysiswithtime
notproposethatstatisticalleadersbe givena carteblanche constraints.
to pursuewhateverappears to themto be mostbeneficial
to the company,or thattheynecessarilyreportdirectlyto 4.5 The Need forBroader Statisticians
the CEO. We do propose,however,thatstatisticalleaders
will requirebroaderbased
Increasedmanagerialscrutiny
work towardlookingat the broaderimplicationsof prob- statisticians.
Using a medical analogy,we need more genlems, "thinkout of thebox," and be concernedwithmuch eral practitioners
and fewerspecialists.This is not to sugmorethannarrowtechnicaldetails.
gestthattheprofessionwill notneed some specializedexIt is becomingmore common thatmajor corporations perts. However,such specialistsmay reside permanently
offerleadershipand business acumen trainingand learn- only withinbusinesses where theirspecializationis rouing experiencesfortheiremployees.Industrialstatisticians tinelyrequired,such as forclinicaltrialsin thepharmaceualso need an appreshouldseek out such opportunities
to broadentheirknowl- tical industry.
In addition,statisticians
edge of businesssuccess factorsand to identifyopportuni- ciationof such relatedareas as construction
of databases,
ties to have greaterimpact.
modsimulationand operationsresearch,andnontraditional
Of course,all of thisshouldnot implythatwe need not elingtechniquessuchas neuralnets,to namea few-to say
statistialso be highlyknowledgeablein the technologyof mod- nothingof subjectmatterknowledge.In summary,
erndata analysis.This is imperative,
especiallyas our cus- cians mustadapt to the problemsthe organizationis cur214

Genieral

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rentlyfacingand be flexibleto respondquicklyto a wide need takemostseriouslythenew paradigmand thelessons

rangeof customersand organizationalchallenges.This in- learnedtherefrom.
cludestakingon projectsfroma broadrangeof areas in the
companyto buildthebusinessacumenand otherknowledge
[ReceivedJanuary1998. RevisedSeptember1998.]
forleadingchangeand Six Sigma efforts.
REFERENCES
5. CONCLUDING REMARKS
The Six Sigma fervoris havinga majorimpacton some
of our largestcompanies,and is gettingexcellentresults.
Statisticianscan take just pride in the fact that theyare
the originatorsof manyof the tools of data analysis and
experimental
designupon whichtheseconceptsare based.
The factthatthemethodsare being appliedprincipallyby
practitioners,
ratherthan statisticians,
should be regarded
as a welcome developmentand a significant
challengeto
us to expand our role. We need to broadenour perspective,and be morevitalthaneverbefore-thoughin a more
proactive,leadership,and holisticcapacity.Moreover,we
feel that,althoughthe details may vary,similarforcesto
thoseunderlying
the emergenceof Six Sigma are in force
in mostareas of appliedstatistics.Thus,as a profession,
we

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The AmericanStatisticiani,

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215