Lecture on Type 2 errors and determining samples size

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Lecture on Type 2 errors and determining samples size

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11.11.2010

Agenda

Review of Type I and Type II errors

2. Use of p-value (versus conventional test of hypothesis)

3. Exercises

1.

Statistical Hypothesis

Definition

Statistical definition

an assertion about the distribution of one or more random

variables

an assertion about the parameters of a distribution or a model.

It is a statement that needs to be proven or disproven

Two types of statistical hypotheses:

Simple completely specifies the distribution

Composite does not completely specify the distribution

Hypothesis Testing

A test of statistical hypothesis is a rule which when the

to reject or not reject the hypothesis under consideration

The critical region, C, is that subset of the sample space

consideration

The construction and choice of this critical region are what

1. State null and alternative hypothesis

2. Choose and compute for the test

statistic

3. Determine critical area/acceptance

region

4. Compare test statistic and critical

region to make conclusion

Example

Suppose that X, is a random variable, an outcome of a random

experiment

Example

The random experiment is the M&M pack with X denoting

its weight.

We assume that X is normally distributed

0

= 2.5

this interval

(48.5, 51.5)

Example

Null Hypothesis

Alternative Hypothesis

pack is 50 grams

= 50

50

Definition

Type I Error

Type II Error

Hypothesis when it is

true

Alpha()

is false

Beta()

Power of the Test (1- )

Probability of rejecting

H0 when it is false

A decrease in the probability of on error

generally results an increase in the

probability of the other

The size of the critical region, and therefore

can always be reduced by adjusting the

critical values

Possible situations in Testing a Statistical

Hypothesis

M&Ms Example

Situation

Conclusion from

the Experiment

Weight of the packs is 50g

50g

Weight of the packs is

not 50g

Weight of the packs is

Weight of the packs is 50g

not 50g

Weight of the packs is

not 50g

Type of

Conclusion

Correct

Type I error

Type II error

Correct

M&Ms Example

Suppose that we are getting 10 M&Ms packs to test if our

What is the Type I Error?

What if

We widen the

We increase our

acceptance region sample size to 16

to (48, 52)

What will be the

Type I error?

Type I Error?

We could reduce the Type I Error value by

Increasing the sample size

M&Ms Example

We use the new acceptance region (48,52)

What if the weight of the pack is really 52g and not 50g

The variance is still the same.

Sample Size is still 10

What if

What if the weight of the pack is really 50.5g and not

50g

The variance is still the same.

Sample size is 16

Take Note

1 -

Probability of rejecting the null hypothesis

Measure of the sensitivity of a statistical

test

M&Ms Example

Additional Concepts

Type I Error is related to the rejection region

Type II Error is related to the acceptance

It would be impossible to compute Type II error

P-values

Definition

Smallest level of significance that would lead to the

Lowest level of significance at which the observed

Present convention require the pre-selection of the

critical region accordingly

1. State null and alternative hypothesis

statistic

3. Compute p-value based on the test

statistic

4. Use judgement to conclude based on

the p-value

If p-value >

Do not reject H0

If p-value

If p is low,

make it go

Reject H0

Note: Most statistical software refers to p-values

More on p-values

P-values are actually difficult to

compute except for the standard

normal distribution (Z)

P-values inform us how well the TS falls

into the critical region

Using the P-values preclude the need to

determine a level of significance

Example

Consider the case of a two tailed test with

= 5%

H0 : = 50

critical value: Z/2=

Test

Sample size = 16

Sample Standard deviation = 4

Sample Mean = 51.9

In Perspective

Critical Region

Exercises

Problem 1

Suppose and allergist wishes to test the

hypothesis that at least 30% of the

public is allergic to some cheese

products. Explain how the allergist

could commit

Type I Error

Type II Error

Problem 2

A sociologist is concerned about the effectiveness

to use seatbelts in automobiles.

What hypothesis is she testing is she commits a

type I error by erroneously concluding that the

training course is ineffective?

What type of hypothesis is she testing if she

commits a type II error by erroneously

concluding that the training course is effective?

Problem 3

The proportion of adults living in a small town who are

hypothesis, a random sample of 15 is selected. If the

number of college graduates in our sample is anywhere

from 6 to 12, we will fail to reject the null hypothesis

that p=0.6; otherwise we shall conclude that p is not

equal to 0.6.

Evaluate assuming p=0.6, using the binomial

distribution.

Evaluate for the alternatives p=0.5 and p=0.7. what

about if p=0.59. What does this show?

Problem 4

Repeat the previous exercise when 200

adults are selected and the acceptance

region is defined to be 110<x<130

where x is the number of college

graduates in our sample. Use the

normal to binomial distribution.

Problem 5

A random sample of 400 samples in a certain city asked

badly needed revenues for street repairs. If more than

220 but fewer than 260 favor the tax, we shall conclude

that 60% of the voters are for it.

Find the probability of committing a type I error if

60% of the voters favor the increased tax.

What is the probability of committing a type II error

using this test if actually only 48% of the voters are in

favor of the additional gasoline tax.

Problem 6

A consumer products company is formulating a new

Foam height is approximately normally distributed and

has a standard deviation of 20 millilitres. The company

wishes to test H0: = 175 mL versus H1: > 175mL,

using the results of 10 samples.

Find the type I error probability, if the critical region is

x > 185mL

What is the probability of Type II error if the true

mean foam height is 195mL?

HOMEWORK

Montgomery

9-6

9-8

9-15

9-19

fin

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