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The impact of severe wind episodes on both the travelling public and the transport network
operator is reviewed. The greatest impact is on road, air and sea transport and the examples of
storm-force
winds in 1987 and 1990 reveals the scale and nature of the disruption.
Improvements
to the format of weather forecasts and warnings is considered to offer some
prospect of reducing the hazard, but a databank of wind-related transport accidents is also
needed for planning and preliminary operational statistical analysis.
in which major
on transport
can be divided
Road transport
The authors have already published
jointly reviews
of the wind hazard
(Perry
and Symons,
1991;
Symons and Perry, 1990) and this work will now be
summarized.
There are three main categories of wind hazards:
(1)
(2)
(3)
direct
interference
with a vehicle
through
the force of the wind, as a minimum
making
steering
difficult
but,
with sufficient
wind
strength,
overturning
the vehicle or pushing
it off the road or into the path of another
vehicle;
causing obstruction
by blowing snow. sand or
other material into the highway, blowing down
trees, parts of buildings and other debris: and
indirect effects such as causing build-up of snow
on lee slopes, creating conditions for avalanches,
danger to bridges, etc.
situation (Telionis,
1984). Overturning
accidents are
the most common
type of wind-induced
accidents
and in the 1990 storm 66% of accidents
involved
high-sided
lorries or vans. whilst only 27% involved
cars.
At the interface between the atmosphere
and the
ground surface,
friction reduces wind speeds and
makes the air turbulent,
showing
itself in sharp
fluctuations
in wind speed (gusts and lulls) and
changes
in wind direction.
Added
to all these
hazards, the sharp transitions
in velocity which occur
at tunnel mouths,
bridges,
etc. result in frequent
risks to the stability of high-sided
lorries, doubledecker buses, caravans
and motor-cycles.
Further
studies are required
of both driver behaviour
and
driver perception
of the high wind hazard.
Trees. walls, fencing panels and parts of buildings
may be blown directly on to vehicles or in front of
them in the roadway. In Britain, the most common
obstructions
caused by the wind are fallen trees.
Most roads, other than motorways and major routes
of near-motorway
status.
are fringed
by large
numbers
of trees and many country by-roads
and
lanes are overhung
by them. Trees are among the
principal
causes of the attractiveness
of the British
landscape
but they do cause problems
in stormy
conditions.
Branches and brushwood
are commonly
torn off trees by winds of 4G50 km/h. which are
common in Britain. while winds of 70 km/h upwards
threaten
whole trees, especially shallow-rooted
and
old ones.
The highway engineer will be concerned
with the
effect of wind on traffic using bridges. Wind-induced
accidents must be minimized
because of the danger
to the occupants of vehicles, the bridge itself and the
traffic flow.
The Severn Bridge, the principal road link between
England and South Wales, illustrates
the problems.
Records
of lane closure
on the Severn
Bridge
indicate that, in the 1980s:
(1) lanes
admitted
that it was designed for a maximum
wind
speed of 160 km/h at carriageway
level. This figure
represents
the maximum three-second
gust expected
in the area with a 50-year return period.
Exposure in a given spot is a function of the local
topography
and wind field and its assessment
is
difficult (Baker.
1984). Anemographs
can be produced only by bulky and expensive
equipment
and
widespread
installation
of such equipment
cannot be
expected and would not be cost-effective.
particularly
bearing
in mind the varying
tracks
of storms.
Following
experiments
in the 1960s and 1970s with
Doppler radar, new commercial
wind-profiling
radar
offers important
possibilities
for analysing
wind
patterns
on the mesoscale,
complementing
radiosondes for meteorological
work, but it is unlikely
that there will be early applications
of revolutionary
technology
at the level of the individual
road in the
near future (Fleming and Hayenga,
1987).
For dedicated studies for new roads, realignments,
etc, studies of models in wind tunnels may be useful
though expensive.
an example being in the design of
the M62 motorway across the north of England, with
the resulting
provision
of a windbreak
(Rutter,
1968). A much less expensive method is to use tatter
flags. pioneered
in Britain by the Forestry Commission. which uses them to define planting
limits in
upland regions. The amount of areal loss or tatter of
these flags has been shown to be directly related to
the square of the mean wind speed at the site.
For operational
purposes
it is essential
to have
constant readings, preferably with automatic recording and warning devices. Cost is again, of course, the
problem,
but there is now an opportunity
to utilize
remote
sensing
stations
installed
for ice warning
purposes.
Present practice in relation to measuring
wind at such stations varies - in many cases wind
data are not recorded or transmitted
to the central
processing stations. In the case of the Findlay Irvine
network
established
in Wales,
wind speeds
are
measured and recorded at fixed times when data are
collected and made available to the Meteorological
Office for use in their road weather forecasts.
and
can be accessed at any time. Wind data from these
stations have probably been used in the past mainly
in relation to the likelihood of disturbed air reducing
the risk of freezing of the road surface but during the
1989-90 winter observers
at the University
College
of Swansea
found
some
interesting
material.
Immense
variation
was noted, with recorded
wind
speeds at the same time on 25 February varying from
around 8 km/h to over 70 km/h with no relationship
to relief but entirely related to the passage of the
storm.
Speeds of up to 90 km/h have been observed but.
unfortunately,
the readings are taken only at intervals
of 2.5 minutes and averaged over 30 seconds, thus
and
three-second
gusts. as used in engineering
construction
standards,
are not observable,
though
this could be altered by software changes at moder124
of roads
Motorways
--*s__
Gust speed
(knots).Once
in 50 year
return period
e
-.
--._
CT
I
Figure
exposed
100 km
Air transport
In no other field of transport
is wind as critical and
potentially
dangerous
as in aviation.
A sudden
change
in wind direction
or gustiness
when an
aircraft is taking off or landing may precipitate
an
accident which may be fatal, and a change of wind at
altitude
may also have serious consequences.
A
sudden
cessation
of wind may also result in a
catastrophic
accident.
Less dramatically,
the direction and strength
of winds influence
the range of
aircraft
and an increased
headwind
may lead to
unexpected
diminution
of fuel reserves and the need
to seek a diversionary
airport which introduces
other
hazards,
such as landing
in unfamiliar
and illequipped
airports or in adverse weather conditions.
It is in the take-off and landing operations
that the
greatest hazards occur. This is found to be true when
all causes of accidents are examined but it is most of
all true in the case of weather-related
accidents.
Wind hazards range from a moderate gust across the
runway,
or the addition
of a four- or five-knot
tailwind
component,
to a microburst
associated
with a thunderstorm.
Windshear
is one of the most
dreaded words in the pilots vocabulary.
JLIIIC~.YAcrosoprrce Dictiowry
defines windshear
126
as Exceptionally
large local wind gradient
recognized
as an extremely dangerous
phenomenon
because
encountered
chiefly at low altitude
(in
squall or local front systems) in approach configuration at a speed where [it] makes a sudden
and
potentially
disastrous difference to airspeed and thus
lift (Gunston.
1980).
When the pilot encounters
windshear
everything
depends on his/her reactions within a second or two.
Changes occur so rapidly that rcpcatcd adjustment\
to the controls may be needed within the space of a
few seconds. One false move or wrong interpretation
of the situation
may be disastrous.
All pilots need
training
to deal with these problems.
Simulators
provide valuable opportunities
for airline and military
crews to cope with these. as with other emcrgcncics.
Pilots have been aware of the hazards ol strong
and changeable
winds and gusts from the very
earliest days of flying but the hazards of extreme
windshear
have only been recognized
since the late
1970s when accident investigators
were seaching for
causal factors to explain several spectacular
catastrophes, notably in the USA. It has become widely
recognized
that modern jet aircraft are particularly
vulnerable
to windshear accidents because the quest
for shorter take-off and landing distances
has left
aircraft with less reserve power to cope with sudden
changes,
such as diminution
of headwind
during
take-off.
or an unexpected
tailwind
component
during
landing.
If there is a sudden
change
of
direction from headwind to tailwind on either takeoff or landing there must be immediate
acceleration
to restore the airspeed, otherwise lift diminishes and
the aircraft will fly into the ground despite application
of other control measures.
The most extreme type of windshcar
is associated
with thunderstorms
which produce
violent downdraughts
near their centre,
to which the name
microburst
has been given. Following
extensive
research in the USA an advisory bulletin for pilots.
meteorologists.
air traffic controllers
and flight
operations
officers was produced
by ICAO (International Civil Aviation
Organisation).
It is recognized
that the time taken to discern
windshear
and take action is usually no more than
five to IS seconds.
Convective
activity,
thunderstorms. heavy rain and blowing dust arc all conducive
to windshear.
At 150 knots, the transit time of a microburst
some 4 km across is only about 45 seconds and in
that time an aircraft may be subjected
to multiple
wind changes of 6tMO knot velocities from headwind
to tailwind associated with violent downdraughts
of
up to 60 knots (Figure 2).
There are a number of measures that can bc taken
to reduce the dangers
from windshear.
At some
major airports Low Level Windshear
Alert systems
have been installed.
Basically
these consist of a
number of anemometers
placed around the airport
area providing data which are analysed by a computer
and plcklng
Aqxed
up downdraft
starts
to decrease
Pilot rotates
talwlnd
Vertical s
d starts to lnclease
Core downburst
6000
Mawmum
gusts 70.
(22O-33 5 m)
Normal
Takeoff
PIlot attempts
to malntaln
loon
above ground
V2+10
(3)
An example
of an accident
in which windshear
appeared
to play a significant
part was that to a
Shorts SD 3-60-100 landing at Bristol Airport on 20
December
1989. During the approach the crew were
warned
of adverse
conditions
including
thunderstorm activity to the east of the airport. The aircraft
commander.
because of the severe turbulence
that
was being experienced,
intended to cross the runway
threshold
at 10 knots above the selected
target
threshold
speed of 98 knots. On touch-down
the
aircraft bounced and on the second touch-down
the
landing
gear suffered
damage.
The aircraft
was
brought to a stop and there were no injuries.
The
report by the Air Accidents
Investigation
Board
noted that Bristol Airport did not have a Windshear
Alert Service. Had there been one an alert would
127
probably
have
(AAIR
Large
than
rough
aircraft
weather.
and
There
being
Small
transport\
power
should
ncvcr
are not
for
may
is available.
aircraft.
one failed
to
survive
four
aircraft
also
with
one
their
power).
rescrvc)
such
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power
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failed.
four
all
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engina
than
light
This
i$
reserva
of
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argues
as
that
docs not,
confer
machines
(or
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obvious
with
the
safety
general,
accidents
is
light
than
because
of
qualifications
aircraft,
known
the
an
and
into
accidents
wcrc
in how many
An
October
fixed-wing
the
been
of
to
all the
a total
these
how
many
717
and
factor.
reported
January
and X9 to rotorcraft
in
reports
by weather
accidents
of
All
Rullclitl.
was a major
between
691
W;I\
of
these
factor
seen
ot
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book
import-
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with
flying
to fly
qualifica-
been written
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ot
or other
valuable
the
cxtrcmc
gusts.
instrument
has recently
(Wickson.
in
including
and relatively
bc especially
to
is shown
factor.
but unexpected
demands
and
corporate
wind,
identifiable
cope
;I
to
accidents
cause\
that
aircraft
to
moderate
which
Icat
in 73 of the
(including
of weather
of light
weather.
to acreat
ie 70%.
transport
be
ncccssary
these
accidents
pilots
in cloud.
(63-l
Weather
number
quite
tions.
an
transport
accidents
accidents.
smaller
will
although
in true
incidence
It
training
should
any
for
pilots
of
of
wind
which
limited
1993).
Rail transport
jet
arc detailed
show
caused
that wind
issued
for
Btwtdt
From
made
engaged
identifiable
and cargo
the
rough
qualify
This
training,
service.
in the UK
categories.
revealed
aircraft
airline
major
much
passenger
cvcn
little
aviation
more
jets.
crew
reyuired
in
at least partly
Rulleh
1997
maintenance
it appears
examination
AA/R
of
Itz~wtiptiott
weight
many
especially
level
to aircraft
has
suffer
aircraft.
higher
those
Accidrrtt
attempt
the
the
accidents
Air
aircraft
do large
especially
divided
and Gx (S.
experience
advantages.
In
aircraft.
part
IO-1 (16.6%)
1O-1 weather-related
Many
than
of course,
other
light
were
in
wa\ the
turbulence,
of
its power
aeroplanes
ant in scvcn
of climbing
Icss excess
half
there
T~rhlc 2
four-engined
operating
loses
with
the most
operation\.
flying)
to be more
three-quarter\
engincs
first
not for
For
in man\i
w;i\
report,
Dealing
wind
In
incidents
cause
to be capable
which
other
partial
than
require
accident
many
that
there
to persons.
jet
are likely
(retaining
and
injury
accidents
of modern
i\ because
therefore
aircraft
one engine
that
out
damage
no
as
and 74 to rotorcraft).
better
condition\
This
are designed
engine
twin-engined
fact
in
engines.
and
be emphasized
listed
plancs
to be able to continue
engine,
damage
were
into
It should
events
the
(1986)
designed
the
despite
acceleration.
Collins
had
when
patterns.
have
sudden
cases of
be flown
better
wind
in
through
power
necessarily
hostile
to climb
fitted
helicopters).
safer
avoided
Nevertheless,
and great
types
few
by flying
aircraft
twin-engincd
with
bery
be
lighter
with
been
should
available
power
accident
comfortable
this
at surviving
because
this
generally
more
have
design
they
aircraft
are
are
if at all avoidable.
sophisticated
to
of
destroyed
though
possible.
storms
prior
aircraft
aircraft
weather.
large
issued
multi-engined
small
full
been
Rullctin
in
1990 and
accidents
(essentially
to
Probably
railway
the
most
structure
on 28 December
failure
in
exerting
likelihood
from
high
famous
was the
IX79
structure
loading
on
the
extensive
winds
(1) Overhead
to
arises
bridge
cabling
for
systems
on them.
track
itself.
The
could
fall on British
to
from
will
Trees
lines
Today
rail
the
service4
be disrupted
block
all tree\
is high
7ahle 2. Accidents to transport aircraft in the Ilh: 1990-92 (summer): relationship to wind and other weather elements
gusts
two sources:
may also
cost of removing
Rail
stray
spans.
principally
blown
Bridge
of an engineering
allow
disruption
trees
on
of the Tay
as a result
the
of
effect
failure
by
the
that
and would
(2)
Sea transport
At sea the hazard posed by high winds, gales and
storms is at its most obvious.
Small vessels are
constantly
at risk and quite large vessels face dangers
in very bad weather even in open sea. Substantial
ferries
may be endangered
when entering
and
leaving harbour in high seas and deck personnel
are
constantly
at risk. Vessels are particularly
likely to
get into trouble if cargo shifts, if engine rooms are
flooded or if steering gear is damaged. Once a ship is
Conclusions
The preceding
sections serve to highlight the considerable influence
that high winds can have on the
UK transport
system and its component
parts. In
most years only a few days will be affected and only
very occasionally
is the scale of damage and disruption likely to be severe. Projected
global warming
may well be accompanied
by changes in the frequency
of storms. although it is by no means clear at present
whether more or less severe gales might be expected.
Although
the January
1990 storm remains fresh in
many peoples memory and clearly had a long return
period in southern and central England,
it would be
imprudent
to believe that a more severe storm could
not occur. The great storm of December
1703
probably exceeded in severity that of 1990 and in the
short period from 1664-1720 at least four exceptionally severe windstorms
occurred.
Since the poor forecasts of the 1987 storm by the
Meteorological
Office. the quality and accuracy of
forecasts
has improved
notably.
A new Meteorological Office National
Severe Weather
Warning
Service
(NSWWS)
has now
been
established
(Hymas, 1993). There are two tiers of warnings: Tier
I, warning of severe or exceptionally
severe weather;
Tier 2, warning of hazardous
conditions
(with the
severity of the weather less severe than in Tier 1).
Criteria for the issue of wind warnings are given in
Tdde 3.
From April 1992 Emergency
Flash Messages have
been introduced
when exceptionally
severe conditions are expected
to occur over a wide area. The
messages are intended
to receive prominence
from
the national
media.
129
Tier
50 mph gu\ts
(72 rnk)
60 mph gu\t\
(77 Ill/\)
(31 Ill/\)
so mph
gu\t\
(ih m/s)
Acknowledgement
This research has been supported
by a fellowship
granted
to Professor
Symons by the Leverhulme
Foundation.
I30