You are on page 1of 14

Contact: Tom Swiss

(773) 485-9477
February 22, 2015

Emanuel Hovering Around 50%
Statistically too close to call runoff or not
CHICAGO, IL - Ogden & Fry, a Chicago-based polling company, is conducting weekly polls for the Mayor
of Chicago. Respondents are selected by random sampling to match Municipal Election turnout ratios
(see Methodology).

February 12, 2015 n= 737

Rahm Emanuel
Jesus “Chuy” Garcia
Willie Wilson
Robert “Bob” Fioretti
William “Dock” Walls

362
169
106
63
36

48.3%
26.5%
15.2%
6.8%
3.3%

Margin of Error +/- 3.68% at 95% Confidence Interval

ANALYSIS
The only question remaining in the Mayor’s race is whether Rahm Emanuel will achieve the allimportant 50%+1 on Tuesday, February 24th. Statistically, the result is within the margin of error so it is
too close to call.
The turnout in the 50 Ward Aldermanic races will be a major influence on the Mayor’s race.

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161

Page 1

PREVIOUS WEEKLY MAYORAL POLL RESULTS
February 14, 2015 n= 736

Rahm Emanuel

362

49.2%

Jesus “Chuy” Garcia
Willie Wilson

169
106

23.0%
14.4%

63
36

8.6%
4.9%

Robert “Bob” Fioretti
William “Dock” Walls

Margin of Error +/- 3.69% at 95% Confidence Interval

WITH “UNDECIDEDS”

WITHOUT “UNDECIDED” OPTION

POLL 1 – February 7, 2015
n= 969

POLL 2 – February 8, 2015
n= 727

Rahm Emanuel

399

41.2%

Rahm Emanuel

373

51.3%

Jesus “Chuy” Garcia

182

18.8%

Jesus “Chuy” Garcia

185

25.4%

Willie Wilson

103

10.6%

Willie Wilson

94

12.9%

Robert “Bob” Fioretti

65

6.7%

Robert “Bob” Fioretti

54

7.4%

William “Dock” Walls

17

1.8%

William “Dock” Walls

21

2.9%

203

20.9%

Undecided

Margin of Error +/- 3.71%

Margin of Error +/- 3.21%

*Once early voting begins, “undecided” is removed as a poll option. The last two weekly Mayoral polls
will not have “undecided” as an option.

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161

Page 2

February 7, 2015 n= 969

Rahm Emanuel
Jesus “Chuy” Garcia
Willie Wilson
Robert “Bob” Fioretti
William “Dock” Walls
Undecided

399
182
103
65
17
203

41.2%
18.8%
10.6%
6.7%
1.8%
20.9%

Margin of Error +/- 3.21% at 95% Confidence Interval

January 31, 2015 n= 884

Rahm Emanuel
Jesus “Chuy” Garcia
Willie Wilson
Robert “Bob” Fioretti
William “Dock” Walls
Undecided

369
147
86
59
15
208

41.7%
16.6%
9.7%
6.7%
1.7%
23.5%

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161

Page 3

Margin of Error +/- 3.36% at 95% Confidence Interval

January 24, 2015 n= 950

Rahm Emanuel

375

39.5%

Jesus “Chuy” Garcia
Willie Wilson

171
105

18.0%
11.1%

Robert “Bob” Fioretti
William “Dock” Walls
Undecided

71
17
211

7.5%
1.8%
22.2%

Margin of Error +/- 3.24% at 95% Confidence Interval

January 17, 2015 n= 1,010

Rahm Emanuel
Jesus “Chuy” Garcia
Willie Wilson
Robert “Bob” Fioretti
William “Dock” Walls
Undecided

384
166
107
68
15
270

38.0%
16.4%
10.6%
6.7%
1.5%
26.7%

Margin of Error +/- 3.15% at 95% Confidence Interval

EMANUEL VS. GARCIA
January 24, 2015 n= 725

Rahm Emanuel
Jesus “Chuy” Garcia

398
327

54.9%
45.1%

Margin of Error +/- 3.71% at 95% Confidence Interval

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161

Page 4

METHODOLOGY
Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote
based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.
Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For a Municipal Election poll, 60% of
the sampled population voted in 3 of the last 3 elections, 30% voted in 2 of the last 3 elections, and 10%
voted in 1 of the last 3 elections. This 60/30/10 ratio reflects Municipal Election voting patterns

CROSSTABS – January 17th Poll
Respondents by Gender
Male
Female

468
542

46%
54%

Respondents by Age
Age 18 - 30
96
9.5%
Age 31 - 45
281
27.8%
Age 46 - 64
357
35.4%
Age 65 plus
275
27.3%
*Age could not be determined for 1 respondent

Respondents by Ward
Ward 1
Ward 2
Ward 3

20
15
33

Ward 26
Ward 27
Ward 28

10
22
31

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161

Page 5

Ward 4
Ward 5
Ward 6
Ward 7
Ward 8
Ward 9
Ward 10
Ward 11
Ward 12
Ward 13
Ward 14
Ward 15
Ward 16
Ward 17
Ward 18
Ward 19
Ward 20
Ward 21
Ward 22
Ward 23
Ward 24
Ward 25

29
30
31
20
23
34
8
19
8
13
19
8
16
21
30
45
23
29
10
15
18
14

Ward 29
Ward 30
Ward 31
Ward 32
Ward 33
Ward 34
Ward 35
Ward 36
Ward 37
Ward 38
Ward 39
Ward 40
Ward 41
Ward 42
Ward 43
Ward 44
Ward 45
Ward 46
Ward 47
Ward 48
Ward 49
Ward 50

20
7
6
22
15
36
15
11
16
17
19
16
22
21
14
18
17
17
30
34
24
19

CROSSTABS – January 24th Poll
Respondents by Gender
Male
Female

444
506

47%
53%

Respondents by Age
Age 18 - 30
Age 31 - 45

79
262

8.3%
27.6%

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161

Page 6

Age 46 - 64
353
37.2%
Age 65 plus
255
26.9%
*Age could not be determined for 1 respondent

Respondents by Ward
Ward 1
Ward 2
Ward 3
Ward 4
Ward 5
Ward 6
Ward 7
Ward 8
Ward 9
Ward 10
Ward 11
Ward 12
Ward 13
Ward 14
Ward 15
Ward 16
Ward 17
Ward 18
Ward 19
Ward 20
Ward 21
Ward 22
Ward 23
Ward 24
Ward 25

13
20
39
30
29
29
22
41
27
7
11
12
13
8
10
9
17
18
30
16
26
6
15
18
6

Ward 26
Ward 27
Ward 28
Ward 29
Ward 30
Ward 31
Ward 32
Ward 33
Ward 34
Ward 35
Ward 36
Ward 37
Ward 38
Ward 39
Ward 40
Ward 41
Ward 42
Ward 43
Ward 44
Ward 45
Ward 46
Ward 47
Ward 48
Ward 49
Ward 50

9
19
30
21
11
15
20
11
25
9
6
22
13
17
22
18
19
26
17
22
29
27
35
18
16

CROSSTABS – January 31st Poll
Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161

Page 7

Respondents by Gender
Male
Female

423
461

47.9%
52.1%

Respondents by Age
Age 18 - 30
Age 31 - 45
Age 46 - 64
Age 65 plus

84
239
306
255

9.5%
27.0%
34.6%
28.8%

Respondents by Ward
Ward 1
Ward 2
Ward 3
Ward 4
Ward 5
Ward 6
Ward 7
Ward 8
Ward 9
Ward 10
Ward 11
Ward 12
Ward 13
Ward 14
Ward 15
Ward 16
Ward 17
Ward 18
Ward 19
Ward 20
Ward 21

17
15
28
27
21
25
28
22
20
8
11
8
21
5
1
24
12
14
32
15
29

Ward 26
Ward 27
Ward 28
Ward 29
Ward 30
Ward 31
Ward 32
Ward 33
Ward 34
Ward 35
Ward 36
Ward 37
Ward 38
Ward 39
Ward 40
Ward 41
Ward 42
Ward 43
Ward 44
Ward 45
Ward 46

11
15
23
18
9
6
19
20
23
5
11
19
22
30
16
22
17
19
24
13
18

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161

Page 8

Ward 22
Ward 23
Ward 24
Ward 25

11
12
26
8

Ward 47
Ward 48
Ward 49
Ward 50

28
20
26
10

CROSSTABS – February 7th Poll
Respondents by Gender
Male
Female

451
518

46.5%
53.5%

Respondents by Age
Age 18 – 30
Age 31 - 45
Age 46 – 64
Age 65 plus

91
270
357
251

9.4%
27.9%
36.8%
25.9%

Respondents by Ward
1 Count
2 Count
3 Count
4 Count
5 Count
6 Count
7 Count
8 Count
9 Count
10 Count
11 Count
12 Count
13 Count
14 Count

19
20
28
31
29
26
24
27
20
9
10
10
8
9

26 Count
27 Count
28 Count
29 Count
30 Count
31 Count
32 Count
33 Count
34 Count
35 Count
36 Count
37 Count
38 Count
39 Count

17
24
22
20
6
8
31
11
29
14
5
31
13
23

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161

Page 9

15 Count
16 Count
17 Count
18 Count
19 Count
20 Count
21 Count
22 Count
23 Count
24 Count
25 Count

6
25
17
17
36
15
28
8
10
16
18

40 Count
41 Count
42 Count
43 Count
44 Count
45 Count
46 Count
47 Count
48 Count
49 Count
50 Count

16
23
29
19
19
24
21
30
29
23
16

CROSSTABS – February 8th Poll
Respondents by Gender
Male
Female

315
412

43.3%
56.7%

Respondents by Age
Age 18 – 30
Age 31 - 45
Age 46 – 64
Age 65 plus

81
196
239
210

11.2%
27.0%
32.9%
28.9%

Respondents by Ward
Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161
10

Page

1 Count
2 Count
3 Count
4 Count
5 Count
6 Count
7 Count
8 Count
9 Count
10 Count
11 Count
12 Count
13 Count
14 Count
15 Count
16 Count
17 Count
18 Count
19 Count
20 Count
21 Count
22 Count
23 Count
24 Count
25 Count

13
7
19
26
25
22
16
20
16
5
15
3
18
7
7
13
18
19
18
11
22
1
12
14
20

26 Count
27 Count
28 Count
29 Count
30 Count
31 Count
32 Count
33 Count
34 Count
35 Count
36 Count
37 Count
38 Count
39 Count
40 Count
41 Count
42 Count
43 Count
44 Count
45 Count
46 Count
47 Count
48 Count
49 Count
50 Count

8
22
16
18
8
4
16
9
24
11
6
15
13
15
12
18
12
17
20
11
12
20
23
12
18

CROSSTABS – February 14th Poll
Respondents by Gender
Male
Female

330
406

44.8%
55.2%

Respondents by Age
Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161
11

Page

Age 18 – 30
Age 31 - 45
Age 46 – 64
Age 65 plus

77
210
277
172

10.5%
28.5%
37.6%
23.4%

Respondents by Ward
1 Count
2 Count
3 Count
4 Count
5 Count
6 Count
7 Count
8 Count
9 Count
10 Count
11 Count
12 Count
13 Count
14 Count
15 Count
16 Count
17 Count
18 Count
19 Count
20 Count
21 Count
22 Count
23 Count
24 Count
25 Count

9
12
19
23
27
18
17
21
18
7
15
6
21
8
1
11
13
19
25
15
21
6
12
13
12

26 Count
27 Count
28 Count
29 Count
30 Count
31 Count
32 Count
33 Count
34 Count
35 Count
36 Count
37 Count
38 Count
39 Count
40 Count
41 Count
42 Count
43 Count
44 Count
45 Count
46 Count
47 Count
48 Count
49 Count
50 Count

4
14
13
22
16
8
15
17
17
5
8
19
9
26
14
12
13
18
10
14
14
28
23
20
8

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161
12

Page

CROSSTABS – February 21st Poll
Respondents by Gender
Male
Female

333
404

45.2%
54.8%

Respondents by Age
Age 18 – 30
Age 31 - 45
Age 46 – 64
Age 65 plus

73
206
269
189

9.9%
28.0%
36.5%
25.6%

Respondents by Ward
1 Count
2 Count
3 Count
4 Count
5 Count
6 Count
7 Count
8 Count
9 Count
10 Count
11 Count
12 Count
13 Count
14 Count
15 Count
16 Count
17 Count
18 Count
19 Count

3
12
30
20
27
19
17
25
24
8
12
10
13
8
7
12
16
11
30

26 Count
27 Count
28 Count
29 Count
30 Count
31 Count
32 Count
33 Count
34 Count
35 Count
36 Count
37 Count
38 Count
39 Count
40 Count
41 Count
42 Count
43 Count
44 Count

12
25
12
21
9
8
18
10
18
8
12
15
7
14
17
16
23
10
18

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161
13

Page

20 Count
21 Count
22 Count
23 Count
24 Count
25 Count

14
12
10
12
12
6

45 Count
46 Count
47 Count
48 Count
49 Count
50 Count

13
12
20
22
16
11

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161
14

Page