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While neoclassical growth model redirects here, it may 1.2 Short-run implications

also refer to the RamseyCassKoopmans model.

In the short run, growth is determined by moving to the

The SolowSwan model is an exogenous growth new steady state which is created only from the change

model, an economic model of long-run economic growth in the capital investment, labor force growth and depreset within the framework of neoclassical economics. It ciation rate. The change in the capital investment is from

attempts to explain long-run economic growth by look- the change in the savings rate.

ing at capital accumulation, labor or population growth,

and increases in productivity, commonly referred to

as technological progress. At its core is a neoclassical aggregate production function, usually of a Cobb

Douglas type, which enables the model to make contact with microeconomics.[1]:26 The model was developed independently by Robert Solow and Trevor Swan in

1956,[2][3] and superseded the post-Keynesian Harrod

Domar model. Due to its particularly attractive mathematical characteristics, SolowSwan proved to be a convenient starting point for various extensions. For instance, in 1965, David Cass and Tjalling Koopmans

integrated Frank Ramseys analysis of consumer optimization, thereby endogenizing the savings ratesee the

RamseyCassKoopmans model.

The standard Solow model predicts that in the long run,

growth will be equal to the new steady state. This is

the biggest weaknesses of the model because it means

that, in the long run, there is no growth. The idea that

a country reaches steady state and stays there forever is

considered by some Economists to be unrealistic, and to

allow a continued growth condition in the long-term the

Solow Romer model is used. By combining the Solow

and Romer models, economists are able to predict a long

run situation that includes sustained growth. However,

there are natural limits to economic growth within the

planetary boundaries that are not addressed by the Solow

Romer approach.

Background

1.4 Assumptions

HarrodDomar model that included a new term: productivity growth. Important contributions to the model

came from the work done by Solow and by Swan in 1956,

who independently developed relatively simple growth

models.[2][3] Solows model tted available data on US

economic growth with some success.[4] In 1987 Solow

was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics for his work.

Today, economists use Solows sources-of-growth accounting to estimate the separate eects on economic

growth of technological change, capital, and labor.[5]

1.1

Extension

model

to

the

that capital is subject to diminishing returns in a closed

economy.

Given a xed stock of labor, the impact on output of

the last unit of capital accumulated will always be less

than the one before.

labor force growth, diminishing returns implies that at

some point the amount of new capital produced is only

just enough to make up for the amount of existing capital

lost due to depreciation. At this point, because of the

HarrodDomar assumptions of no technological progress or labor force

growth, we can see the economy ceases to grow.

matters somewhat, but the basic logic still applies in

the short-run the rate of growth slows as diminishing re Adding labor as a factor of production;

turns take eect and the economy converges to a constant

And capital-labor ratios are not xed as they are in steady-state rate of growth (that is, no economic growth

the HarrodDomar model. These renements allow per-capita).

increasing capital intensity to be distinguished from Including non-zero technological progress is very simtechnological progress.

ilar to the assumption of non-zero workforce growth, in

with constant output per worker-hour required for a unit

1

of output. However, in this case, per-capita output grows Y (t) = K(t) (A(t)L(t))

at the rate of technological progress in the steady-state where t denotes time, 0 < < 1 is the elasticity of

(that is, the rate of productivity growth).

output with respect to capital, and Y (t) represents total

production. A refers to labor-augmenting technology or

knowledge, thus AL represents eective labor. All fac1.5 Variations in the eects of productivity tors of production are fully employed, and initial values

A(0) , K(0) , and L(0) are given. The number of workIn the Solow-Swan model the unexplained change in the

ers, i.e. labor, as well as the level of technology grow

growth of output after accounting for the eect of capiexogenously at rates n and g , respectively:

tal accumulation is called the Solow residual. This residual measures the exogenous increase in total factor productivity (TFP) during a particular time period. The inL(t) = L(0)ent

crease in TFP is often attributed entirely to technological

progress, but it also includes any permanent improvement A(t) = A(0)egt

in the eciency with which factors of production are

The number of eective units of labor, A(t)L(t) , therecombined over time. Implicitly TFP growth includes any

fore grows at rate (n + g) . Meanwhile, the stock of cappermanent productivity improvements that result from

ital depreciates over time at a constant rate . However,

improved management practices in the private or public

only a fraction of the output ( cY (t) with 0 < c < 1 ) is

sectors of the economy. Paradoxically, even though TFP

consumed, leaving a saved share s = 1c for investment:

growth is exogenous in the model, it cannot be observed,

so it can only be estimated in conjunction with the simultaneous estimate of the eect of capital accumulation on

K(t) = s Y (t) K(t)

growth during a particular time period.

dK(t)

The model can be reformulated in slightly dierent ways where K is shorthand for dt , the derivative with reusing dierent productivity assumptions, or dierent spect to time. Derivative with respect to time means that

it is the change in capital stockoutput that is neither

measurement metrics:

consumed nor used to replace worn-out old capital goods

Average Labor Productivity (ALP) is economic out- is net investment.

put per labor hour.

Since the production function Y (K, AL) has constant

it can be written as output per eective

Multifactor productivity (MFP) is output divided by returns to scale,

[note 1]

unit

of

labour:

a weighted average of capital and labor inputs. The

weights used are usually based on the aggregate input shares either factor earns. This ratio is often

Y (t)

= k(t)

quoted as: 33% return to capital and 67% return to y(t) =

A(t)L(t)

labor (in Western nations).

The main interest of the model is the dynamics of capital

In a growing economy, capital is accumulated faster than intensity k , the capital stock per unit of eective labour.

people are born, so the denominator in the growth func- Its behaviour over time is given by the key equation of the

[note 2]

tion under the MFP calculation is growing faster than SolowSwan model:

in the ALP calculation. Hence, MFP growth is almost

always lower than ALP growth. (Therefore, measuring

= sk(t) (n + g + )k(t)

in ALP terms increases the apparent capital deepening k(t)

eect.) MFP is measured by the "Solow residual", not

The rst term, sk(t) = sy(t) , is the actual investment

ALP.

per unit of eective labour: the fraction s of the output

per unit of eective labour y(t) that is saved and invested.

The second term, (n + g + )k(t) , is the break-even

2 Mathematics of the model

investment: the amount of investment that must be invested to prevent k from falling.[8]:16 The equation imThe textbook SolowSwan model is set in continuous- plies that k(t) converges to a steady-state value of k ,

time world with no government or international trade. A dened by sk(t) = (n + g + )k(t) , at which there is

single good (output) is produced using two factors of pro- neither an increase nor a decrease of capital intensity:

duction, labor ( L ) and capital ( K )in an aggregate production function that satises the Inada conditions, which

1

) 1

(

imply that the elasticity of substitution must be asymptots

k =

ically equal to one.[6][7]

n+g+

3

at which the stock of capital K and eective labour AL 3 MankiwRomerWeil version of

are growing at rate (n+g) . By assumption of constant remodel

turns, output Y is also growing at that rate. In essence, the

SolowSwan model predicts that an economy will converge to a balanced-growth equilibrium, regardless of its 3.1 Addition of Human Capital

starting point. In this situation, the growth of output per

worker is determined solely by the rate of technological N. Gregory Mankiw, David Romer, and David Weil created a human capital augmented version of the Solowprogress.[8]:18

Swan model that can explain the failure of international

K(t)

Since, by denition, Y (t) = k(t)1 , at the equilibrium investment to ow to poor countries.[11] In this model outk we have

put and the marginal product of capital (K) are lower in

poor countries because they have less human capital than

rich countries.

s

K(t)

Similar to the textbook SolowSwan model, the produc=

Y (t)

n+g+

tion function is of CobbDouglas type:

Therefore, at the equilibrium, the capital/output ratio depends only on savings, growth, and depreciation rates. Y (t) = K(t) H(t) (A(t)L(t))1

This is the Solow-Swan models version of the Golden

where H(t) is the stock of human capital, which deprecirule savings rate.

ates at the same rate as physical capital. For simplicity,

Since < 1 , at any time t the marginal product of capital

they assume the same function of accumulation for both

K(t) in the Solow-Swan model is inversely related to the

types of capital. Like in SolowSwan, a fraction of the

capital/labor ratio.

outcome, sY (t) , is saved each period, but in this case

split up and invested partly in physical and partly in human capital, such that s = sK + sH . Therefore, there

Y

are two fundamental dynamic equations in this model:

1

1

MPK =

= A

/(K/L)

K

If productivity A is the same across countries, then countries with less capital per worker K/L have a higher

marginal product, which would provide a higher return

on capital investment. As a consequence, the model predicts that in a world of open market economies and global

nancial capital, investment will ow from rich countries to poor countries, until capital/worker K/L and income/worker Y /L equalize across countries.

k = sK k h (n + g + )k

h = sH k h (n + g + )h

The balanced (or steady-state) equilibrium growth path is

determined by k = h = 0 , which means sK k h (n+

g + )k = 0 and sH k h (n + g + )h = 0 . Solving

for the steady-state level of k and h yields:

1

(

) 1

1

higher in poor countries than in rich countries,[9] the ims

s

H

K

plication is that productivity is lower in poor countries. k = n + g +

The basic Solow model cannot explain why productivity

1

is lower in these countries. Lucas suggested that lower

( 1 ) 1

sK sH

levels of human capital in poor countries could explain h =

n+g+

the lower productivity.[10]

Y

If one equates the marginal product of capital K

with In the steady state, y = (k ) (h ) .

the rate of return r (such approximation is often used in

neoclassical economics), then, for our choice of the pro3.2 Econometric estimates

duction function

of the augmented model because Mankiw, Romer, and

Y

K K

rK

Weils estimates of did not seem consistent with ac=

=

cepted estimates of the eect of increases in schooling

Y

Y

on workers salaries. Though the estimated model exso that is the fraction of income appropriated by cap- plained 78% of variation in income across countries, the

ital. Thus, Solow-Swan model assumes from the begin- estimates of implied that human capitals external efning that the labor-capital split of income remains con- fects on national income are greater than its direct eect

stant.

on workers salaries.[12]

3.3

6 NOTES

that have greatly raised their savings rates have experienced the income convergence predicted by the SolowSwan model. As an example, output/worker in Japan, a

country which was once relatively poor, has converged to

the level of the rich countries. Japan experienced high

growth rates after it raised its savings rates in the 1950s

and 1960s, and it has experienced slowing growth of output/worker since its savings rates stabilized around 1970,

as predicted by the model.

the large eect of human capital from schooling in the

Mankiw, Romer and Weil model with the smaller eect

of schooling on workers salaries. He demonstrated that

the mathematical properties of the model include signicant external eects between the factors of production,

because human capital and physical capital are multiplicative factors of production.[13] The external eect of

The per-capita income levels of the southern states of

human capital on the productivity of physical capital is

the United States have tended to converge to the levevident in the marginal product of physical capital:

els in the Northern states. The observed convergence in

these states is also consistent with the conditional convergence concept. Whether absolute convergence beY

tween countries or regions occurs depends on whether

MPK =

= A1 (H/L) /(K/L)1

K

they have similar characteristics, such as:

He showed that the large estimates of the eect of human

capital in cross-country estimates of the model are con Education policy

sistent with the smaller eect typically found on work Institutional arrangements

ers salaries when the external eects of human capital

on physical capital and labor are taken into account. This

Free markets internally, and trade policy with other

insight signicantly strengthens the case for the Mankiw,

countries.[15]

Romer, and Weil version of the Solow-Swan model. Most

analyses criticizing this model fail to account for the external eects of both types of capital inherent in the Additional evidence for conditional convergence comes

from multivariate, cross-country regressions.[16]

model.[13]

If productivity growth were associated only with high

technology then the introduction of information technol3.4 Total Factor Productivity

ogy should have led to a noticeable productivity acceleration over the past twenty years; but it has not: see: Solow

The exogenous rate of TFP (Total Factor Productivity) computer paradox. Instead world productivity appears to

growth in the Solow-Swan model is the residual after ac- have increased relatively steadily since the 19th century.

counting for capital accumulation. The Mankiw, Romer

and Weil model provides a lower estimate of the TFP Econometric analysis on Singapore and the other "East

(residual) than the basic Solow-Swan model because the Asian Tigers" has produced the surprising result that aladdition of human capital to the model enables capital though output per worker has been rising, almost none

accumulation to explain more of the variation in income of their rapid growth had been due to rising per-capita

[5]

across countries. In the basic model the TFP residual in- productivity (they have a low "Solow residual").

cludes the eect of human capital because human capital

is not included as a factor of production.

5 See also

Conditional convergence

predicts that the income levels of poor countries will tend

to catch up with or converge towards the income levels of rich countries if the poor countries have similar

savings rates for both physical capital and human capital as a share of output, a process known as conditional

convergence. However, savings rates vary widely across

countries. In particular, since considerable nancing constraints exist for investment in schooling, savings rates for

human capital are likely to vary as a function of cultural

and ideological characteristics in each country. [14]

Since the 1950s, output/worker in rich and poor countries generally has not converged, but those poor countries

Economic growth

Endogenous growth theory

Golden rule savings rate

6 Notes

[1] Step-by-step calculation:

K(t) (A(t)L(t))1

A(t)L(t)

y(t)

K(t)

(A(t)L(t))

Y (t)

A(t)L(t)

=

K(t)

[A(t)L(t)

+

L(t)A(t)]

[A(t)L(t)]2

K(t)

A(t)L(t)

K(t) L(t)

A(t)L(t) L(t)

= k(t)

K(t)

A(t)L(t)

K(t) A(t)

A(t)L(t) A(t)

Since

K(t)

= sY (t) K(t) , and L(t)

, A(t)

are

L(t)

A(t)

n and g , respectively, the equation simplies to

Y (t)

K(t)

K(t)

K(t)

k(t)

= s A(t)L(t)

A(t)L(t)

n A(t)L(t)

g A(t)L(t)

=

sy(t) k(t) nk(t) gk(t) . As mentioned above,

y(t) = k(t) .

References

Introduction to Modern Economic Growth. Princeton:

Princeton University Press. pp. 2676. ISBN 978-0-69113292-1.

[2] Solow, Robert M. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory

of Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics

70 (1): 6594. doi:10.2307/1884513.

[3] Swan, Trevor W. (1956). Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation. Economic Record 32 (2): 334361.

doi:10.1111/j.1475-4932.

[4] Solow, Robert M. (1957). Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function. Review of Economics and

Statistics 39 (3): 312320. doi:10.2307/1926047.

[5] Haines, Joel D. (2006). A Framework for Managing

the Sophistication of the Components of Technology for

Global Competition. Competitiveness Review 16 (2):

106121.

[6] Barelli, Paulo; Pessa, Samuel de Abreu (2003). Inada

conditions imply that production function must be asymptotically CobbDouglas. Economics Letters 81 (3): 361

363. doi:10.1016/S0165-1765(03)00218-0.

[7] Litina, Anastasia; Palivos, Theodore (2008). Do Inada

conditions imply that production function must be asymptotically CobbDouglas? A comment. Economics Letters

99 (3): 498499. doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2007.09.035.

[8] Romer, David (2011). The Solow Growth Model.

Advanced Macroeconomics (Fourth ed.). New York:

McGraw-Hill. pp. 648. ISBN 978-0-07-351137-5.

[9] Caselli, F.; Feyrer, J. (2007). The Marginal Product of

Capital. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 122 (2):

535. doi:10.1162/qjec.122.2.535.

[10] Lucas, Robert (1990). Why doesn't Capital Flow from

Rich to Poor Countries?". American Economic Review 80

(2): 9296

[11] Mankiw, N. Gregory; Romer, David; Weil, David N.

(May 1992). A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 107

(2): 407437. doi:10.2307/2118477. JSTOR 2118477.

[12] Klenow, Peter J.; Rodriguez-Clare, Andres (January

1997). The Neoclassical Revival in Growth Economics:

Has It Gone Too Far?". In Bernanke, Ben S.; Rotemberg, Julio. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume

12. National Bureau of Economic Research. pp. 73114.

ISBN 0-262-02435-7.

Right? A Reconciliation of the Micro and Macro Eects

of Schooling on Income. Macroeconomic Dynamics 17

(5): 10231054. doi:10.1017/S1365100511000824.

[14] Breton, T. R. (2013).

The role of education

in economic growth:

Theory, history and current returns. Educational Research 55 (2): 121.

doi:10.1080/00131881.2013.801241.

[15] Barro, Robert J.; Sala-i-Martin, Xavier (2004). Growth

Models with Exogenous Saving Rates. Economic Growth

(Second ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill. pp. 3751.

ISBN 0-262-02553-1.

[16] Barro, Robert J.; Sala-i-Martin, Xavier (2004). Growth

Models with Exogenous Saving Rates. Economic Growth

(Second ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill. pp. 461509.

ISBN 0-262-02553-1.

8 Further reading

Agnor, Pierre-Richard (2004). Growth and Technological Progress: The SolowSwan Model. The

Economics of Adjustment and Growth (Second ed.).

Cambridge: Harvard University Press. pp. 439

462. ISBN 0-674-01578-9.

Barro, Robert J.; Sala-i-Martin, Xavier (2004).

Growth Models with Exogenous Saving Rates.

Economic Growth (Second ed.).

New York:

McGraw-Hill. pp. 2384. ISBN 0-262-02553-1.

Burmeister, Edwin; Dobell, A. Rodney (1970).

One-Sector Growth Models. Mathematical Theories of Economic Growth. New York: Macmillan.

pp. 2064.

Dornbusch, Rdiger; Fischer, Stanley; Startz,

Richard (2004). Growth Theory: The Neoclassical Model. Macroeconomics (Ninth ed.). New

York: McGraw-Hill Irwin. pp. 6175. ISBN 0-07282340-2.

Farmer, Roger E. A. (1999). Neoclassical Growth

Theory. Macroeconomics (Second ed.). Cincinnati: South-Western. pp. 333355. ISBN 0-32412058-3.

Gandolfo, Giancarlo (1996). The Neoclassical

Growth Model. Economic Dynamics (Third ed.).

Berlin: Springer. pp. 175189. ISBN 3-54060988-1.

Intriligator, Michael D. (1971). Mathematical Optimalization and Economic Theory. Englewood Clis:

Prentice-Hall. pp. 398416. ISBN 0-13-561753-7.

External links

Solow Model Videos - 20+ videos walking through

derivation of the Solow Growth Models Conclusions

Java applet where you can experiment with parameters and learn about Solow model

Solow Growth Model by Fiona Maclachlan, The

Wolfram Demonstrations Project.

A step-by-step explanation of how to understand the

Solow Model

Professor Jos-Vctor Ros-Rulls course at University of Minnesota

Professor Alex Tabarroks Solow Growth Model

lecture at MRUniversity

EXTERNAL LINKS

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