You are on page 1of 1

2.

DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY

Historical Demand
Electricity demand growth in 2013 tracked closely to the forecast of the last 7-Year Statement. Average
demand increased by 9% to 282 MW (corresponding to 2.47 TWh). The peak demand was 420 MW,10 an
increase of 8% over the 2012 peak demand.
The average annual growth rate in peak demand over the past 5-7 years has been between 9% and 10%, while
single-year growth has reached as high as 15%. The ten-year average growth rate is also about 9%. This rapid
development rate has been common among all principal consumer sectors.
Demand Projections
OPWPs 7-year electricity demand projections for the Salalah System have been developed after consultation
with DPC and representatives of the industrial sector. The projections have been developed in a similar
manner as for the MIS: (1) the projected demands represent the net system demand, in that they are
inclusive of assumed transmission and distribution system losses but exclude the internal auxiliary
consumption of power and desalination plants; (2) the Expected Demand scenario is based on an assumption
of normal weather, whereas the Low Case and High Case scenarios include the effects of weather extremes;
(3) they are built up from separate analyses of underlying demand, and certain bulk loads, comprising mainly
industrial demands, that are assessed on a specific load-wise basis11; and (4) they are presented as a range
with a Low Case, High Case and central, Expected Demand forecast.
The projections are summarized in Figure 9 below.
Under the Expected forecast, average demand is projected to grow from 282 MW (corresponding to 2.47 TWh)
in 2013 to 553 MW (4.86 TWh) in 2020, an average increase of around 10% per year. Peak demand is
expected to grow at about 10% per year, from 420 MW in 2013 to 800 MW in 2020.
The demand drivers in the Salalah system include population-driven residential growth, construction of
commercial and government buildings, infrastructure development, new tourism projects, and industrial
growth in designated economic zones. All sectors are expected to grow rapidly. Underlying Demand primarily
non-industrial sectors is expected to account for the majority of growth in peak demand and about the same
share of energy growth as large industrial loads.
The growth rate of underlying demand is unchanged from OPWPs last 7-Year Statement under the Expected
Demand scenario. The overall forecast has reduced, however, due to a reassessment of development
prospects for a single, large industrial customer that accounted for a significant share of demand in both the
Expected Demand and High Case scenarios. Apart from this, the assessment of other demands has changed
little. The Expected Demand forecast is grounded in historical trends and projects assessed as committed in
the short term. It takes the average growth of Underlying Demand over the past five years, which is about the
middle of the range of growth rates considering the past 5-10 years. Growth in Bulk Loads primarily industrial
projects is limited to committed projects in the near term, and in the medium term a conservative
assessment of the likely realization of identified, prospective projects.
10

DPC reported the net peak demand for the Salalah System as 420 MW at 00:34 pm on Tuesday, May 28th, 2013.
For the Salalah System, individual loads connected (or expected to be connected) to the transmission and distribution
system at 33 kV or above are regarded as bulk loads for purposes of the projections.
11

7-Year Statement (2014-2020)

Page 30