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PROBABILITY FOR BUSINESS

MANAGEMENT SIMPLIFIED

by :
DR. T.K. JAIN
AFTERSCHO☺OL
centre for social entrepreneurship
sivakamu veterinary hospital road
bikaner 334001 rajasthan, india
for PGPSE participants
PGPSE : FREE FOR ALL, OPEN FOR ALL
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5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 1
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WHAT IS EXCLUSIVE
EVENT?

WHEN RESULTS FROM SOME


EXPERIMENT ARE SUCH THAT IF ONE
OUTCOME (EVENT) HAPPENS, OTHERS
ARE IMPOSSIBLE, THEN THEY ARE
CALLED EXCLUSIVE EVENTS. FOR
EXAMPLE, IF YOU TOSS A COIN, YOU
CAN GET EITHER HEAD OR TAIL – NOT
BOTH - THESE ARE EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
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WHAT IS PROBABILITY ?

FINDING THE POSSIBILTY OF AN EVENT


OUT OF MANY EQUALLY LIKELY
EVENTS IS CALLED PROBABILITY
THUS IF YOU THROW A COIN, THE
PROBABILITY OF GETTING HEAD IS ½
BECAUSE THERE ARE 2 EQUALLY
LIKELY EVENTS AND ONE HEAD.
5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 3
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What is exhaustive list of events?

All the possibilities are called exhaustive list.


For example : coin has two possibilities : head
and tail – thus these two are exhaustive - there
is no other possibilitiy

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 4
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Q : what is the probability of
getting 2 heads out of 3 tosses of
coins?
First : list down all the possibilities :
H= Head, T=tail
we may have all heads : HHH, we may have all tail : TTT
: 1. HHH 2 TTT 3 HTH 4 THT 5 HHT 6 HTT 7 TTH 8 THH
in simple terms : 2^3 = 8 possibilities : (the formula is options
^ number of trials)
out of these the cases of 2 heads are : 3/8 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 5
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What is the possibility of getting a
difference of 2 when you toss a
dice twice?
Let us list down all the possibilities :
(1,1) (1,2)(13)(1,4)(1,5),(1,6),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3), (2,4), (2,5),
(2,6),(3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6),(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),
(4,4),(4,5),(4,6),(5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6),(6,1),
(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6)
there are total 36 possibilities out of which, 8 cases
involve difference of 2, so answer : 8/36

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 6
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What is the chance of picking up a
spade or an ace from a pack of
cards?

There are 13 spade cards. There are 4 ace


cards. Thus there are 13+4 cards = 17 out of
which one ace+spade is included thus we have
16 out of 52 possibilities : 16/52 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 7
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What is the probability that a committee
of 7 persons has 5 men and 2 women, it
is to be formed out of 8 men and 5 ladies
We have to pick up 7 persons out of (8+5) = 13 members so the total
possibilities are :
13C7 = 13! / (7! * (13-7)!)
=13*12*11*10*9*8*7*6*5*4*3*2*1/
(7*6*5*4*3*2*1*6*5*4*3*2*1)
=1716
methods of selecting 5 men and 2 women :
8C5 * 5C2 = (8*7*6/3*2*1) (5*4/2*1) = 560
answer = 560/1716 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 8
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A number is picked up out of 25
natural numbers, what is the
probability that it is divisible by 4?

Out of 25 number, there are 6 numbers


divisible by 4 : 4,8,12,16,20,24
thus the probability is : 6/25 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 9
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P (A-B) = 1/5 and P(A)=1/3 and
P(B)=1/2, what is the probability
that out of A and B, only B will
happen?
P(A-B) = P(A) (1/3)– (P(A intersection B) =
1/5
thus P(A intersection B)= 1/3-1/5= 2/15
we want P (B-A) = P(B)-P(A intersection B)
=1/2 – 2/15 = 11/30 ans.

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 10
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A hits 5 out of 9 correct shots and B hits 6
out of 11 correct, what is the probability
that when they try they are able to hit
correct?

First find out the possibility that target is NOT


hit at all : A not hitting : (1-5/9) = 4/9
A = 4/9 and B = 5/11
A *B = 4/9 * 5/11 = 20/99
thus they will hit : 1-20/99 = 79/99 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 11
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8 balls are distributed at random
among 3 boxes, what is the
probability that the first box will get 3
balls?
8 balls can be distributed to 3 boxes in 3^8
manners.
We want first box to have 3 balls, so 8C3, now
we have 5 balls left out which have to be
distributed to remaining 2 boxes : 2^5
answer : (8C3*2^5)/3^8 = 1792/6561 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 12
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Odds in favour of an event is 2:3
and odds against another event is
3:7 ,what is the probability that at
least one of these will happen
First event : happening : 2/5 not happening : 3/5, 2nd event
happen : 7/10 and not happen : 3/10
Find the probability that none of these happen :
3/5 * 3/10 = 9/50
at least one of them will happen is :
1-9/5 =41/50 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 13
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Two balls are picked up from a bag
containing 5 red and 7 blue balls at
random, what is the probability that the
balls are of 2 different colours?
1 out of 5 = 5C1 and 1 out of 7 = 7C1
total : 12C2
solution : (5*7)/66
=35/66 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 14
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What is the probability of getting at least
7 in a single cast with 2 dice?

Let us list down all the possibilities :


(1,1) (1,2)(13)(1,4)(1,5),(1,6),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3), (2,4), (2,5),
(2,6),(3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6),(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),
(4,4),(4,5),(4,6),(5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6),(6,1),
(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6)
out of these : 16 cases have 7 or more than 7 as total so
answer is : 21/36 or 7/12 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 15
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What is the probabilty of having
at least one 6 from 3 throws of a
dice?

Having 0 six : 5/6*5/6*5/6*


=125/216
having at least 1 six = 95/216

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 16
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If 2 letters are taken at random from the
word home, what is the probabilty that
none of the letters would be vowels?

Vowels are 2 and constants are 2. so :


select 2 out of 2 divided by 2 out of 4.
2C2 / 4C2
2C2 = 1 and 4C2 = 6
so answer : 1/6 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 17
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A,B,C are 3 mutually independent with
probabilities .3, .2 and .4 respectively,
what is P(AintersectionBintersectionC) ?

Aintersection B intersection C = .3*.2*.4


= .024
answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 18
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There are 10 balls numbered from 1 to 10
in a box if one of them is selected at
random, what is the probability that the
number printed on the ball would be an
odd number greater than 4?

We have 5,7,9 as three numbers which are less


than 10 but are more than 4 and are odd
numbers. So the probability is 3/10 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 19
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The wages of 8 workers in $ :
50,62,40,70,45,56,32,45, one worker is
selected randomly, what is the probability
that his wages would be lower than
averge wages?

Total of all : 400, so divided by 8 gives 50.


thus we have 4 values less than 50 so the
answer is : 4/8 or 50% answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 20
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If an unbiased coin is tossed 3
times, what is the probability of
getting more than 1 head?

List down all the possibilities :


TOTAL NUMBER : 2^3 = 8
HHT,HHH,HTH,THH,TTT,TTH,THT,HTT
= 4/8 or ½ answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 21
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If two dice are rolled, what is the
probability of getting neither 6 nor
9 as total ?
Let us list down all the possibilities :
(1,1) (1,2)(13)(1,4)(1,5),(1,6),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3), (2,4), (2,5),
(2,6),(3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6),(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),
(4,4),(4,5),(4,6),(5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6),(6,1),
(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6)
total of 6 : 5 cases, total of 9 : 4 cases
remaining cases : 27
probability : 27/36 = .75 answer
5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 22
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What is the probability that 4
children selected at random have
different birthdates ?
There are 365 days in a year. So the
probabilities are : for the first date – we have
365 options, for 2nd date, we have 364 days
(one date is reduced), for 3rd person, we have
343 days and so on.
365/365*364/365*363/365*362/365

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 23
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A box contains 5 white and 7 black balls,
two successive draws of ball are made
with replacements, what is the probability
nd
that the first ball is white and 2 is black
ball?

First white : 5C1 / 12C1


2nd black : 7C1/ 12C1
=5/12 * 7/12 =
=35/144 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 24
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A box contains 5 white and 7 black balls,
two successive draws of ball are made
without replacements, what is the
probability that the first ball is white and
2nd is black ball?

First white : 5C1 / 12C1


2nd black : 7C1/ 11C1
=5/12 * 7/11 =
=35/121 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 25
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A problem in probability was given to 3 CS
students : A,B,C their chances of solving are
1/3, 1/5 and ½ respectively, what is the
probability that the question will be solved?
For these questions, start with opposites
A will not solve : 2/3
B will not solve : 4/5
c will not solve : ½
none of them will solve
2/3 * 4/5 * ½ = 4/15
problem will be solved : 1-4/15 = 11/15

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 26
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From a group of students 30%, 40%, 50%
failed in A/c, Eco, and at least one of
these two papers. If an examinee is
selected at random, what is the probability
that he passed in A/c if it known that he
failed in Eco.
50 failed in one of the two papers. 40% failed
in eco and 30% in a/c. 30+40 = 70, which is 20
more than 50, so 20% failed in both the papers.
20 (40-20) failed in eco only, but not in a/c, so
the required probability : 20/40 answer
5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 27
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Out of 2 pots, first contains 3 red and 5 black balls, 2nd
contains 4 red and 6 black. A ball is taken at random
from 1st pot and is transferred to 2nd pot and now
another ball is taken from 2nd pot, what is the
probability the 2nd ball is red?

Now there are (4+6+1) =11 balls, but we dont


know about 11th ball, which has been
transferred from 1st pot. So there are two
th
possibilities for 11 ball: red / black
(3/8*5c1/11c1)+(5/8*4c1/11c1) =35/88 answer

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