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Probability for Business Management Simplified

Probability for Business Management Simplified

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MANAGEMENT SIMPLIFIED

by :

DR. T.K. JAIN

AFTERSCHO☺OL

centre for social entrepreneurship

sivakamu veterinary hospital road

bikaner 334001 rajasthan, india

for PGPSE participants

PGPSE : FREE FOR ALL, OPEN FOR ALL

mobile : 91+9414430763

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 1

centre for social entrepreneurship

bikaner

WHAT IS EXCLUSIVE

EVENT?

EXPERIMENT ARE SUCH THAT IF ONE

OUTCOME (EVENT) HAPPENS, OTHERS

ARE IMPOSSIBLE, THEN THEY ARE

CALLED EXCLUSIVE EVENTS. FOR

EXAMPLE, IF YOU TOSS A COIN, YOU

CAN GET EITHER HEAD OR TAIL – NOT

BOTH - THESE ARE EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 2

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bikaner

WHAT IS PROBABILITY ?

OUT OF MANY EQUALLY LIKELY

EVENTS IS CALLED PROBABILITY

THUS IF YOU THROW A COIN, THE

PROBABILITY OF GETTING HEAD IS ½

BECAUSE THERE ARE 2 EQUALLY

LIKELY EVENTS AND ONE HEAD.

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 3

centre for social entrepreneurship

bikaner

What is exhaustive list of events?

For example : coin has two possibilities : head

and tail – thus these two are exhaustive - there

is no other possibilitiy

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 4

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bikaner

Q : what is the probability of

getting 2 heads out of 3 tosses of

coins?

First : list down all the possibilities :

H= Head, T=tail

we may have all heads : HHH, we may have all tail : TTT

: 1. HHH 2 TTT 3 HTH 4 THT 5 HHT 6 HTT 7 TTH 8 THH

in simple terms : 2^3 = 8 possibilities : (the formula is options

^ number of trials)

out of these the cases of 2 heads are : 3/8 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 5

centre for social entrepreneurship

bikaner

What is the possibility of getting a

difference of 2 when you toss a

dice twice?

Let us list down all the possibilities :

(1,1) (1,2)(13)(1,4)(1,5),(1,6),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3), (2,4), (2,5),

(2,6),(3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6),(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),

(4,4),(4,5),(4,6),(5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6),(6,1),

(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6)

there are total 36 possibilities out of which, 8 cases

involve difference of 2, so answer : 8/36

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 6

centre for social entrepreneurship

bikaner

What is the chance of picking up a

spade or an ace from a pack of

cards?

cards. Thus there are 13+4 cards = 17 out of

which one ace+spade is included thus we have

16 out of 52 possibilities : 16/52 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 7

centre for social entrepreneurship

bikaner

What is the probability that a committee

of 7 persons has 5 men and 2 women, it

is to be formed out of 8 men and 5 ladies

We have to pick up 7 persons out of (8+5) = 13 members so the total

possibilities are :

13C7 = 13! / (7! * (13-7)!)

=13*12*11*10*9*8*7*6*5*4*3*2*1/

(7*6*5*4*3*2*1*6*5*4*3*2*1)

=1716

methods of selecting 5 men and 2 women :

8C5 * 5C2 = (8*7*6/3*2*1) (5*4/2*1) = 560

answer = 560/1716 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 8

centre for social entrepreneurship

bikaner

A number is picked up out of 25

natural numbers, what is the

probability that it is divisible by 4?

divisible by 4 : 4,8,12,16,20,24

thus the probability is : 6/25 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 9

centre for social entrepreneurship

bikaner

P (A-B) = 1/5 and P(A)=1/3 and

P(B)=1/2, what is the probability

that out of A and B, only B will

happen?

P(A-B) = P(A) (1/3)– (P(A intersection B) =

1/5

thus P(A intersection B)= 1/3-1/5= 2/15

we want P (B-A) = P(B)-P(A intersection B)

=1/2 – 2/15 = 11/30 ans.

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 10

centre for social entrepreneurship

bikaner

A hits 5 out of 9 correct shots and B hits 6

out of 11 correct, what is the probability

that when they try they are able to hit

correct?

hit at all : A not hitting : (1-5/9) = 4/9

A = 4/9 and B = 5/11

A *B = 4/9 * 5/11 = 20/99

thus they will hit : 1-20/99 = 79/99 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 11

centre for social entrepreneurship

bikaner

8 balls are distributed at random

among 3 boxes, what is the

probability that the first box will get 3

balls?

8 balls can be distributed to 3 boxes in 3^8

manners.

We want first box to have 3 balls, so 8C3, now

we have 5 balls left out which have to be

distributed to remaining 2 boxes : 2^5

answer : (8C3*2^5)/3^8 = 1792/6561 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 12

centre for social entrepreneurship

bikaner

Odds in favour of an event is 2:3

and odds against another event is

3:7 ,what is the probability that at

least one of these will happen

First event : happening : 2/5 not happening : 3/5, 2nd event

happen : 7/10 and not happen : 3/10

Find the probability that none of these happen :

3/5 * 3/10 = 9/50

at least one of them will happen is :

1-9/5 =41/50 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 13

centre for social entrepreneurship

bikaner

Two balls are picked up from a bag

containing 5 red and 7 blue balls at

random, what is the probability that the

balls are of 2 different colours?

1 out of 5 = 5C1 and 1 out of 7 = 7C1

total : 12C2

solution : (5*7)/66

=35/66 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 14

centre for social entrepreneurship

bikaner

What is the probability of getting at least

7 in a single cast with 2 dice?

(1,1) (1,2)(13)(1,4)(1,5),(1,6),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3), (2,4), (2,5),

(2,6),(3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6),(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),

(4,4),(4,5),(4,6),(5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6),(6,1),

(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6)

out of these : 16 cases have 7 or more than 7 as total so

answer is : 21/36 or 7/12 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 15

centre for social entrepreneurship

bikaner

What is the probabilty of having

at least one 6 from 3 throws of a

dice?

=125/216

having at least 1 six = 95/216

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 16

centre for social entrepreneurship

bikaner

If 2 letters are taken at random from the

word home, what is the probabilty that

none of the letters would be vowels?

select 2 out of 2 divided by 2 out of 4.

2C2 / 4C2

2C2 = 1 and 4C2 = 6

so answer : 1/6 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 17

centre for social entrepreneurship

bikaner

A,B,C are 3 mutually independent with

probabilities .3, .2 and .4 respectively,

what is P(AintersectionBintersectionC) ?

= .024

answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 18

centre for social entrepreneurship

bikaner

There are 10 balls numbered from 1 to 10

in a box if one of them is selected at

random, what is the probability that the

number printed on the ball would be an

odd number greater than 4?

than 10 but are more than 4 and are odd

numbers. So the probability is 3/10 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 19

centre for social entrepreneurship

bikaner

The wages of 8 workers in $ :

50,62,40,70,45,56,32,45, one worker is

selected randomly, what is the probability

that his wages would be lower than

averge wages?

thus we have 4 values less than 50 so the

answer is : 4/8 or 50% answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 20

centre for social entrepreneurship

bikaner

If an unbiased coin is tossed 3

times, what is the probability of

getting more than 1 head?

TOTAL NUMBER : 2^3 = 8

HHT,HHH,HTH,THH,TTT,TTH,THT,HTT

= 4/8 or ½ answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 21

centre for social entrepreneurship

bikaner

If two dice are rolled, what is the

probability of getting neither 6 nor

9 as total ?

Let us list down all the possibilities :

(1,1) (1,2)(13)(1,4)(1,5),(1,6),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3), (2,4), (2,5),

(2,6),(3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6),(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),

(4,4),(4,5),(4,6),(5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6),(6,1),

(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6)

total of 6 : 5 cases, total of 9 : 4 cases

remaining cases : 27

probability : 27/36 = .75 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 22

centre for social entrepreneurship

bikaner

What is the probability that 4

children selected at random have

different birthdates ?

There are 365 days in a year. So the

probabilities are : for the first date – we have

365 options, for 2nd date, we have 364 days

(one date is reduced), for 3rd person, we have

343 days and so on.

365/365*364/365*363/365*362/365

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 23

centre for social entrepreneurship

bikaner

A box contains 5 white and 7 black balls,

two successive draws of ball are made

with replacements, what is the probability

nd

that the first ball is white and 2 is black

ball?

2nd black : 7C1/ 12C1

=5/12 * 7/12 =

=35/144 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 24

centre for social entrepreneurship

bikaner

A box contains 5 white and 7 black balls,

two successive draws of ball are made

without replacements, what is the

probability that the first ball is white and

2nd is black ball?

2nd black : 7C1/ 11C1

=5/12 * 7/11 =

=35/121 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 25

centre for social entrepreneurship

bikaner

A problem in probability was given to 3 CS

students : A,B,C their chances of solving are

1/3, 1/5 and ½ respectively, what is the

probability that the question will be solved?

For these questions, start with opposites

A will not solve : 2/3

B will not solve : 4/5

c will not solve : ½

none of them will solve

2/3 * 4/5 * ½ = 4/15

problem will be solved : 1-4/15 = 11/15

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 26

centre for social entrepreneurship

bikaner

From a group of students 30%, 40%, 50%

failed in A/c, Eco, and at least one of

these two papers. If an examinee is

selected at random, what is the probability

that he passed in A/c if it known that he

failed in Eco.

50 failed in one of the two papers. 40% failed

in eco and 30% in a/c. 30+40 = 70, which is 20

more than 50, so 20% failed in both the papers.

20 (40-20) failed in eco only, but not in a/c, so

the required probability : 20/40 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 27

centre for social entrepreneurship

bikaner

Out of 2 pots, first contains 3 red and 5 black balls, 2nd

contains 4 red and 6 black. A ball is taken at random

from 1st pot and is transferred to 2nd pot and now

another ball is taken from 2nd pot, what is the

probability the 2nd ball is red?

know about 11th ball, which has been

transferred from 1st pot. So there are two

th

possibilities for 11 ball: red / black

(3/8*5c1/11c1)+(5/8*4c1/11c1) =35/88 answer

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 28

centre for social entrepreneurship

bikaner

THANKS....

AFTERSCHOOOL NETWORK / START

AFTERSCHOOOL NETWORK IN YOUR

CITY

AFTERSCHOOOL@IN.COM

PGPSE – WORLD'S MOST

COMPREHENSIVE PROGRAMME IN

SOCIAL ENTREPRENEURSHIP

5 DECEMBER 09 AFTERSCHOOOL 29

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