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Hvem er IFF

Grundlagt i 1970 af Thorkil


Kristensen
Medlemsbaseret non-profit
forening
Privat, neutral og uafhngig
Tvrfaglig tnketank

(konomer, politologer, etnologer,


kommunikationsfolk, sociologer, en
astrofysiker og filosoffer)

Ca. 20 medarbejdere
City Future Clubs

Hvad laver vi?


Prisvindende magasin

Medlemsrapporter

Projekter

At studere fremtiden er en del af


den menneskelige natur
Det er en afgrende faktor i vores
politiske, sociale, kulturelle og
konomiske udvikling.

Det er et grundlggende aspekt i:


Hvem vi er?
Og hvordan vi fungerer?

Tidssyn - fremtidsperspektiv
Fortidsorienterede

Nutidsorienterede

Fremtidsorienterede

De goe gamle dage

Seeing is beliving

Bring the change

Udfordring: Hvordan fr vi dem til at arbejde sammen?

Implementation eats strategy for breakfast

Vi ser verden som som vi er og ikke som


verden er

Tidssyn 2014 og 2004


2004
Skabere 15%
Navigatrer 32%
Tilpassere 33%
Fastholdere 20%

2014

2004
20%

15%

55%

2014

Fremtidsorien
terede
Nutidsoriente
rede
Fortidsorient
erede

Forudsigelser er sjldent selvopfyldende

I am not an economist, but I do believe that we are growing


President George W. Bush July 2008

Kunderne bliver stadig mere krvende

"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?

H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.

Kan vi sprge dem?

If I asked people what they wanted, I


would have made a faster horse
Henry Ford

Megatrends er aggregerede enkeltbegivenheder, der alle trkker i samme


retning og ndrer vores omverden.

Top level
megatrend

Sub-trend
trends

Individual
observations

Tidshorisont p 10-15 r ikke ndvendigvis linere


Pvirker samfundet over en bred front
Stor effekt man kan ikke gemme sig for en megatrend
Implikationerne afhnger af, hvor man str internt afhngige
Vi har en tendens til at overvurdere konsekvenserne p kort sigt
Og undervurdere dem p lngere sigt

En god model til anvendelse af megatrends


og identifikation af strategiske temaer

Society and values


Technology developments
Economic
Environmental stresses
Political developments

Regional and
national
stakeholders
(outside of
industry)

Media options
Funding
Competitors
Political and legislative actors
(relevance in industry)
Suppliers
Meeting of physical and digital
infrastructure
Influencers
Players in value chain
Consumer advocates

Din
Organisation
Megatrends

Contextual
environment

Transactional
environment

Strategy
Business development
Innovation

Trusler

Muligheder

13

Et eksempel fra IFF


Vi m regne med et voksende antal
mellemindkomstlande som konkurrenter,
men ogs som markeder - hvis vi forstr at
arbejde under deres politiske og kulturelle
omstndigheder. Inden r 2005 m vi
regne med, at Kina, og mske Indien, vil
hre til disse lande

Kilde, IFF: Mod r 2005, 1980

Megatrends

Network society

Demographic
development

Sustainability
Knowledge society

Focus on health
Polarization

Immaterialization

Globalization

Democratization

Commercialization

Acceleration and
complexity
Technologic
development

Individualization
Economic growth

Megatrends

Network society

Demographic
development

Sustainability
Knowledge society

Focus on health
Polarization

Immaterialization

Globalization

Democratization

Commercialization

Acceleration and
complexity
Technologic
development

Individualization
Economic growth

Accelerating pace of change

Accelerating pace of change

Exponential rate of ICT


development
Technological progressin
particular, improvements in
computer hardware, software,
and networkshas been so rapid
and so surprising that many
present-day organizations,
institutions, policies, and
mindsets are not keeping up.

Hyper-competition is accelerating
creative destruction
CEOs cannot keep up: 40% of
CEOs last less than 2 years and
median tenures lasted 5.5 years
(in Australia it is down to 3.9
years)

The rate of replacement of Fortune1000


80

70
60
50

40
30
20

10
0
1973-1983

1983-1993

1993-2003

2003-2013

Source: Nathan Furr, Big Business ... The End is Near: Why 70% of the Fortune
1000 Will Be Replaced in a Few Years. Forbes. 21 April 2011
http://www.tlnt.com/2010/07/28/so-long-and-farewell-lon-youre-simply-partof-the-ceo-trend/

When assets become liabilities


Blockbuster video

Customers, innovation, competitors


the biggest threat to organizations
Political
Risk
Customer
Preference

Significance

Competitor
Shifts

Innovation

Business
Interruption

Technology
Shifts

Economic
Conditions

Reputation
Regulation
Terrorism

Interest
rates

Hazards

Foreign
Exchange

Credit Risk
Compliance

Likelihood
Source: Torben Juul Andersen, SRM (2006)

Industries converge
Five largest mobile handset manufacturers
worldwide based on quarterly sales figures
(total units sold)
2000

2012

1. Nokia

1. Samsung

2. Motorola

2. Nokia

3. Ericsson

3. Apple

4. Siemens

4. ZTE

5. Panasonic

5. LG Electronics

Source: Gartner dataquest, 2010, 2012

Hvilke markeder konvergerer i jeres


branche?
Er i tt p kunderne/markedet?

Accelerating pace of change

Exponential rate of ICT


development
Technological progress - in
particular, improvements in
computer hardware, software,
and networks - has been so rapid
and so surprising that many
present-day organizations,
institutions, policies, and
mindsets are not keeping up.

Hyper-competition is accelerating
creative destruction
CEOs cannot keep up: 40% of
CEOs last less than 2 years and
median tenures lasted 5.5 years
(in Australia it is down to 3.9
years)

The rate of replacement of Fortune1000


80

70
60
50

40
30
20

10
0
1973-1983

1983-1993

1993-2003

2003-2013

Source: Nathan Furr, Big Business ... The End is Near: Why 70% of the Fortune
1000 Will Be Replaced in a Few Years. Forbes. 21 April 2011
http://www.tlnt.com/2010/07/28/so-long-and-farewell-lon-youre-simply-partof-the-ceo-trend/

get acceleration og kompleksitet


imdegs med nsket om get
fleksibilitet/agilitet i vrdikden.
Eksempelvis p forpligtelser overfor medarbejdere:

I OECD-landene har vksten i midlertidige jobs vret


1.5 2 gange s hj som vksten i faste ansttelser
siden 90erne
I Frankrig har vksten vret 66% mod 7% i faste jobs fra
2000 2010
Tendensen er strk og rammer alle virksomhedens omrder

Source: McKinsey, 2012

The world is
changing fast.
Big will not beat
small anymore.
It will be the fast
beating the
slow.
Rupert Murdoch

Vi gr fra produkt til service

Eje

Aktiver/Pant

Lease

Service

Cash flow

Answer: Seek networks and


partnerships

Hierarkier udfordres af Netvrk

1900er
Non-social interaktion
Vrdi i transaktioner
Businessstabilitet
Veldefinerede industrier og hierarkier
Envejsmarkeder
Begrnset information
Overskud af ressourcer
Institutioner

2000er
Gennemgribende social
interaktion
Vrdi i forhold
Business i flux
Industritransformation
Tovejsmarkeder
Informations overflod
Ressourcemssige begrnsninger
Fllesskaber

Drivkrfter
Ambient kommunikation
Globale informationsstrmme
Social computing
Markedets diskontinuitet

KONTROL
Source: Dion Hinchchiffe, 2010

Hvordan gr I fra produkt til service?


Hvordan ger I kundens fleksibilitet?

Implikationer af acceleration og
kompleksitet
Kan vi spotte ndret kundeadfrd i vores BI (early
warning)
Er vi gearet til at lede/styre fremtidens
projektorganisation
Hvordan samarbejder vi i vores vrdikde med
specialiserede eksterne aktrer
Hvordan hndterer vi sikkerhed i en mere ben struktur

How does this


affects private
consumption?

MR1 2013

Megatrends

Network society

Demographic
development

Sustainability
Knowledge society

Focus on health
Polarization

Immaterialization

Globalization

Democratization

Commercialization

Acceleration and
complexity
Technologic
development

Individualization
Economic growth

Adgang/service er
vigtigere end ejerskab

Robottaxien kommer nr man


kalder

Fordele ved leje- og


deleordninger

Strre fleksibilitet og mobilitet


Bedre service
Stordriftsfordele
Koordinering via internet
Del af et fllesskab
Fremfor alt: Mere bekvemmelighed

Sharing economy

Source: The Economist (2013)

FREEDOM FROM OWNING

Megatrends

Network society

Demographic
development

Sustainability
Knowledge society

Focus on health
Polarization

Immaterialization

Globalization

Democratization

Commercialization

Acceleration and
complexity
Technologic
development

Individualization
Economic growth

Demografi

OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mnd

Female
Kvinder

100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79

1950

70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000
0
10,000
Population
tusental)
Population (i(in
1000)

20,000

30,000

40,000

Median age

28,6

OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mnd

Female
Kvinder

100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79

1960

70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000
0
10,000
Population
tusental)
Population (i(in
1000)

20,000

30,000

40,000

Median age

29,6

OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mnd

Female
Kvinder

100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79

1970

70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000
0
10,000
Population
tusental)
Population (i(in
1000)

20,000

30,000

40,000

Median age

30,6

OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mnd

Female
Kvinder

100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79

1980

70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000
0
10,000
Population
tusental)
Population (i(in
1000)

20,000

30,000

40,000

Median age

31,9

OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mnd

Female
Kvinder

100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79

1990

70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000
0
10,000
Population
tusental)
Population (i(in
1000)

20,000

30,000

40,000

Median age

34,4

OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mnd

Female
Kvinder

100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79

2000

70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000
0
10,000
Population
tusental)
Population (i(in
1000)

20,000

30,000

40,000

Median age

37,6

OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mnd

Female
Kvinder

100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79

2010

70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000
0
10,000
Population
tusental)
Population (i(in
1000)

20,000

30,000

40,000

Median age

40,8

OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mnd

Female
Kvinder

100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79

2020

70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000
0
10,000
Population
tusental)
Population (i(in
1000)

20,000

30,000

40,000

Median age

43,8

OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mnd

Female
Kvinder

100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79

2030

70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000
0
10,000
Population
tusental)
Population (i(in
1000)

20,000

30,000

40,000

Median age

46,6

OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mnd

Female
Kvinder

100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79

2040

70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000
0
10,000
Population
tusental)
Population (i(in
1000)

20,000

30,000

40,000

Median age

49,4

OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mnd

Female
Kvinder

100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79

2050

70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000
0
10,000
Population
tusental)
Population (i(in
1000)

20,000

30,000

40,000

Median age

51,1

Were not alone

Senior lines
K-citymarket (Finland) testing slow-track checkout lane
for the old and handicapped
Slow moving belt, help with placing items on belt, small
talking with the co-worker
Lane is called: SLOW
Grab a chair - sit down and enjoy the atmosphere

Livsfaser:
Fortid

Fremtid

20

40

60

80

Age

ldre

60

Frie 2

Forldre

40

Frie 1

Uafhngige

20

Afhngige

80

Age

Vi har det bedre end forventet


Omkari Panwar, 70 r

Hvad sker der nr vi kombinere aldring med urbanisering


Urban population by major geographical area (in per cent of total population)

United Nations:World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision

Genkai Shuraku?
Andel af befolkningen i 2012 og 2020,
der er fyldt 65 r

Et by-samfund rammer en kritisk grnse, nr 50% af


borgerne er over 65 r. Ultimativt forhindrer det
samfundets praktiske funktionalitet. 18.775 byer vil vre
Genkai shuraku i 2020

Kilde: DS, 2012

Danmarks vkst drevet af to metropoler


9 ud af 10 danskere bor i
byerne

Metropol regioner

Korridorer

Byer kombineret med


forstder for at danne
regioner.

De korridorer, der
forbinder to strre byer
eller metropol regioner

Befolkningsvkst fra 2012 til 2020

Kilde: Danmarks Statisk

Kan udviklingen bremses

Flyttemnster - skvvridningen fortstter


362.000 flytter fra een kommune til en anden 2009-2011

I job:193.000
Beskftiget,
flytter til
resten af
landet;
68.000

Ikke i job
169.000

Beskftiget,
flytter til Kbh
og stjylland;
125.000

85%
15%
91%
9%
78%
22%

28%
72%

Kilde: Arbejderbevgelsens Erhvervsrd

I job

Arbejdslse,
folke- og frtidspensionister

Kbenhavn by

90,9

9,1

stjylland

85,3

14,7

Fyn
Vest- og
Sydsjlland

77,7

22,3

72

28

Hele landet

83,3

16,7

Kan Skandinavien undg at vre udkants Europa?

I dag: "Pentagonen": London, Hamburg,


Mnchen, Milano og Paris.

I 2040: Pentagonen trukket mod st:


London, Paris, Hamburg og Warszawa.

resundsregionens infrastruktur
(jernbane og vej) til Europa allerede
mttet.
Det danske jernbanenet er under den
standard, der findes i nabolande.

Hvilke konsekvenser har bningen


af Berlin Brandenburg lufthavn for CPH
Lufthavns fremtid?

Source: EPSON 2006, IDA, 2009, NISA 2010

Bestseller: Indkb til vores butikker i London og Newcastle i


nord er lige s forskelligt som at kbe ind til to forskellige lande

Gennemsnitlig husstandsindkomst 2014 i pund


25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0

20059
16034

London

vrige Storbritannien

Storbritannien gennemsnitsalder 2014


60
40

34

39,7

42,9

vrige Storbritannien

South West (Bristol)

20

0
London-regionen

FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY

The world has 23 megacities metropolitan areas


with populations in excess of 10 million. The
household names of the urban world, these firsttier cities produce some 14 percent of global GDP.
Between now and 2025, as the urban world shifts
south and east, these traditional megacities are set
to be joined by 13 new ones seven of them in
China, and only one (Chicago) in the developed
world.

Feminization of society - the evolution of authority

Kvinderne er fremtidens vindere


Kvindernes andel af kandidater voksede 2,5
gange hurtigere end mndenes

Kvindernes andel af nordiske


kandidater ISCED 5+6

Ingenir og naturvidenskab
uforandret
60,00%

100000
50,00%
90000
40,00%

80000
30,00%

70000

20,00%

60000

10,00%

50000

0,00%

40000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

30000

3. Social science, business and law


4. Natural science, mathematics and computing

20000

5. Engineering, manufacturing and construction

10000

0
1999

2000

2001
Men

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Women

Kilde: Nordstat, 2011

Liner (

3. Social science, business and law)

Liner (

4. Natural science, mathematics and computing)

Liner (

4. Natural science, mathematics and computing)

She-conomy
The average American woman is
expected to earn more than the average
American male by 2028.
Women account for 85% of all consumer
purchases :

91% of New Homes


66% PCs
92% Vacations
80% Healthcare
65% New Cars
89% Bank Accounts
93% Food
93 % OTC Pharmaceuticals

Sources: She-conomy.com

Think new business platforms understanding and targeting women

Follow the money

Megatrends

Network society

Demographic
development

Sustainability
Knowledge society

Focus on health
Polarization

Immaterialization

Globalization

Democratization

Commercialization

Acceleration and
complexity
Technologic
development

Individualization
Economic growth

Individualisering

Brn af tiden
1940

Baby
Boomers

1950

Silent
generation

1960

1970 1980

Generation
x

1990

Generation
Y

2000

2010

Generation
z

Generation
Alpha

Investment in product development


45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
C
u
er
m

ct

ct

n
el

p.
ex

an
ch

o
st

es
al

du

du

e
oc
pr

el
od

ce
em
vi
st
er
sy

ro

ra
B

ro

e
or

ce
ro

k
or

es

.P

w
et

n
si

up

u
B

Larry Keeley. www.doblin.com. 3000 projects examined.

45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

Value Creation due to product


development

C
u
er
m

ct

ct

n
el

p.
ex

an
ch

o
st

es
al

du

du

e
oc
pr

el
od

ce
em
vi
st
er
sy

ro

ra
B

ro

e
or

ce
ro

k
or

es

.P

w
et

n
si

up

u
B

Larry Keeley. www.doblin.com. 3000 projects examined.

Thank you!

Claus Kjeldsen
Ck@cifs.dk