CHAPTER-1:INTRODUCTION

Technical analysis is the term associated with stock market and is the most
widely used tool for analyzing and predicting the trend futuristic behavior of a
particulars top price or the market as a whole. It is the process of analyzing the
share price movements and involves the study of market generated data like prices
and volume to determine the future direction of price movements.
Technical analyzing helps in timing the entry or exit from a particular stock. It
holly depends on the historical trends for predicting future price movements based
on study of charts and graphs. It aims at determining the appropriate time to enter or
exit the market with the help of technical indicators and charts.
Although the technical analysis tools can be applied to other markets like
commodities, currencies, bonds etc the present study is restricted to the stock
market or the equity stock.
Hence, the present study undergone at KARVY STOCK BROCKING
LTD Kannur is made to analyze the direction of share price movements by using
various tools of technical analysis. To attain this objective of the study, four sectors
viz information technology pharmaceutical, oil and gas and banking has been
selected and analyzed.

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1.2 INDUSTRIAL PROFILE
The role of broking industry in the Indian Capital Market has undergone a
radical change during the last decade.

The process of liberalization and

globalization of the economy has a significant impact on the capital market and all its
constituents, especially brokers. Until 1988, stock exchanges your more or less selfregularity organizations supervised by the ministry of finance under the Securities
Contracts Regulations Act (SCRA).

However the stock exchanges were not

discharging their self-regularity role well as a result of which malpractices crept into
trading, adversely affecting investor’s interests.

Several comities examined and

made recommendations to reform the organizations of the stock exchange.
Security and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has been set up to ensure that
the stock exchanges discharge their self regulatory role properly. Ever since SEBI
began to monitor brokers, stock broking is emerging as a professional advisory
service, in tune with the requirements of a nature, sophisticated, screen based, ring
less, automated stock exchanges in the country in sharp contrast to the traditional,
closed character as inherited family business.
In the developed market US brokers have already upgraded themselves of
mere executioners and settlers of trades to personal financial planners who manage
the retail investor’s savings.
A similar transition is expected in India as well as in the not-too distant future.
Until the advent of the national stock exchange the broking industry was
largely confined to a few metros and operated as closed group, insulated from the
rest of the economy and largely unconcerned either about improving its working
practices of about the needs of retail investors.

2

From brokers to financial doctors
While seams involving some members have had a negative impact on
investor’s confidence from time to time, such black sheep constitute only a small part
of the broking community. Brokers who are primarily focused on proprietary trading
speculation arbitrage activities and are not offering broking services to wider clients
also can be excluded.
Concern for customers
This is clearly an attitude issue and its importance obvious to any practitioner
of professional management. However, many brokers need to put more attention to
this critical issue and enshrine it as the mother of all guiding principles in their
organizations.
Professional work culture:
This is essential to ensure compliance risk management and efficient delivery
of serve to investors across the country and going forward, even global.
Risk management
SEBI and stock exchanges are introducing risk management practices such
as margin collection from each client and the like; many brokers are still
accommodative and permit their clients to conduct business without adequate
discipline. This needs to change and the broking community as a whole should work
closely with the regulators and its clients to ensure overall lowering of risks in the
system.
Risk profiling
This is an important activity and needs to be done systematically using
computerized tools. Apart from helping the broker to understand the risk appetite of
each client, is also helps in customizing the advice and deciding on the client’s
portfolio restructuring and asset allocation.

3

Portfolio management:
Though this idea is not new for the Indian markets, its likely to emerge now as
an important and significant business opportunities for savings, which continue to
grow at a healthy 12% annum, but are still largely invested in bank deposits.
Professional management culture:
Today every aspect of modern financial markets can be commodities and in
some way transformed into an electronic process thereby encouraging a low margin
which volume business.
This makes the case stronger for working smarter and being able to offer
newer products and services beyond the current skill set of the majority of the
competitors and having global knowledge and information.
The broking industry also faces the challenge of providing value addition to
customers on an on going basis. Only those with ability to provide the right financial
solution to the clients at the right time will emerge stronger and better respected in a
society as financial doctors instead of continuing as a mere brokers !

4

Benefits to all Participants
Indian traditions each one to materialism that is considered a potential source
of suffering. A similar attitude applied to settlements of transactions in securities
help in material form as it created a lot of problems in the marketplace at the level of
each market participant.
SEBI has played a proactive role in the successful transiting from paper
based mode to electronic mode by making it mandatory to settle trades in certain
securities only in demit mode.
A depository is an information technology based service provider, which
requires healthy investment in hardware, software, networking and back-up facilities
to run the system on 24 / 7 basis.

Besides as per depository regulations,

depositories have to maintain a net worth Rs. 100 crores at all times. Depository
services are made available to investors through depository participants an
important link between the depository and the beneficial owner (investor).

The

broking firms to do these activities very effectively.
The BHAVE committee set up by SEBI on the issue of reduction of demit
costs has rightly recommended that companies have been making substantial
saving on share transfer work, printing postage and staff salary etc. Therefore ways
and means may found out to make these companies bear at least a substantial part
of the cost of dematerialization, which will provide some relief to the investors.
Once the securities are dematerialized it is not possible for the depositories to
stop transitions in respect of these securities even if other issuers fail to pay the fees
to the depositories.

Depositories will have no power to deactivate ISINs which

incase goes against the interest of the investors, as often happens in the case of
suspension of trading by stock exchange for non payment of listing fees.

5

1.3 A PROFILE OF KARVY STOCK BROKING LTD.
The birth of Karvy was on a modest scale in 1981. It began with the vision
and enterprise of a small group of practicing Chartered Accountants who founded
the flagship company. Karvy Consultants Limited. We started with consulting and
financial accounting automation, and carved inroads into the field of registry and
share accounting by 1985. Since then, we have utilized our experience and
superlative expertise to go from strength to strength…to better our services, to
provide new ones, to innovate, diversify and in the process, evolved Karvy as one of
India’s premier integrated financial service enterprise.
Thus over the last 20 years Karvy has traveled the success route, towards
building a reputation as an integrated financial services provider, offering a wide
spectrum of services. And we have made this journey by taking the route of quality
service, path breaking innovations in service, versatility in service and finally…
totality in service. Our highly qualified manpower, cutting-edge technology,
comprehensive infrastructure and total customer-focus has secured for us the
position of an emerging financial services giant enjoying the confidence and support
of an enviable clientele across diverse fields in the financial world.
6

Our values and vision of attaining total competence in our servicing has
served as the building block for creating a great financial enterprise, which stands
solid on our fortresses of financial strength - our various companies.
With the experience of years of holistic financial servicing behind us and
years of complete expertise in the industry to look forward to, we have now emerged
as a premier integrated financial services provider.
And today, we can look with pride at the fruits of our mastery and experience
– comprehensive financial services that are competently segregated to service and
manage a diverse range of customer requirements.

Achievements
 Among the top 5 stock brokers in India (4% of NSE volumes)
 India's No. 1 Registrar & Securities Transfer Agents
 Among the to top 3 Depository Participants
 Largest Network of Branches & Business Associates
 ISO 9002 certified operations by DNV
 Among top 10 Investment bankers
 Largest Distributor of Financial Products
 Adjudged as one of the top 50 IT uses in India by MIS Asia
 Full Fledged IT driven operations
Karvy Alliance
Karvy Computer share Private Limited is a 50:50 joint venture of Karvy
Consultants Limited and Computer share Limited, Australia. Computer share Limited

7

is world's largest -- and only global -- share registry, and a leading financial market
services provider to the global securities industry.
The joint venture with Computer share, reckoned as the largest registrar in
the world, servicing over 60 million shareholder accounts for over 7,000 corporations
across eleven countries spread across five continents. Computer share manages
more than 70 million shareholder accounts for over 13,000 corporations around the
world.
Karvy Computer share Private Limited, today, is India's largest Registrar and
Share Transfer Agent servicing over 300 corporates and mutual funds and 16 million
investors.

Quality Policy
To achieve and retain leadership, Karvy shall aim for complete customer
satisfaction, by combining its human and technological resources, to provide
superior

quality

financial

services.

In

the

process,

Karvy

will

strive

to

exceed Customer's expectations.
Quality Objectives
As per the Quality Policy, Karvy will :

Build in-house processes that will ensure transparent and harmonious
relationships with its clients and investors to provide high quality of
services.

Establish a partner relationship with its investor service agents and
vendors that will help in keeping up its commitments to the customers.

Provide high quality of work life for all its employees and equip them
with adequate knowledge & skills so as to respond to customer's
needs.

Continue to uphold the values of honesty & integrity and strive to
establish unparalleled standards in business ethics.
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Use state-of-the art information technology in developing new and
innovative financial products and services to meet the changing needs
of investors and clients.

Strive to be a reliable source of value-added financial products and
services and constantly guide the individuals and institutions in making
a judicious choice of same.

Strive to keep all stake-holders(shareholders, clients, investors,
employees, suppliers and regulatory authorities) proud and satisfied.

Key People in Karvy
Board of Directors – Karvy Consultants Ltd.



Parthasarathy C
Yugandhar M.
Ramakrishna M.S.
Prasad V Potluri

Board of Directors – Karvy Securities Ltd.
 Parthasarathy C
 Yugandhar M.
 Ramakrishna M.S.
Board of Directors – Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.
 Parthasarathy C
 Yugandhar M.
 Ramakrishna M.S.
Board of Directors – Karvy Investor Services Ltd.
 Parthasarathy C
 Yugandhar M.

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 Ramakrishna M.S.
Key Contacts at Head Office




G. Gopalakrishnamacharyulu
V. Ganesh
V.Mahesh
K Sridhar
S Gopichand

1.4

OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

 To analyze the share price movements of pharmaceutical industries, it
industries and banking sectors.
 To assess the price movements / randomness of scripts belongs to
Pharma, IT and Banking sector.
 To analyze the bullish and bearish trend of shares using the Japanese
candle stick.
 To analyze the trends & trend reversal of shares.

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1.5 SCOPE OF THE STUDY

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Technical analysis is the most widely used tool for analyzing and predicting
the trend of the stock market.

This approach is the oldest approach to equity

investment. Technical analysis helps to study the behaviour of the price of the stock
to determine the future prices of the stock. Hence the study conducted at KARVY
STOCK BROKING Ltd.. is made to analyze the price fluctuation in the stock market.
For this purpose four major sectors viz IT, Pharmaceuticals, Oil and gas and
Banking sector. The blue chip three companies are considered from among these
sectors for the study purpose.

1.6 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

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Only 6 months samples were taken for analysis. In case data spanning more than
this analysis may show yet another result.
Indepth and broad study and analysis of all the major and minor companies in each
of the selected sector were not possible with limited time of 45 days.
This analysis is based on the assumption that history repeats itself it may not be true
under the influence of some fundamental factors like economic, industrial and
companies factors.

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CHAPTER:2-RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Research methodology is a way to solve the research problem. In it the
various steps that are generally adopted by a researcher in studying his research
problem along with the logic behind them is explained. All this means that it is
necessary for the researcher to design his methodology for his problem as the same
may differ from problem to problem
2.1Research design
Research design is the frame work or plan or blue print based on which the
researcher is collecting data, analyzing data and providing solution to the problem.
This research study is based on exploratory research design.

The exploratory

research design does not deal with providing solution to the problem. It is only fact
finding approach.
2.2Data collection method:
The data needed for the research work is collected from various sources like;
websites, magazines, journals etc.
2.3Sampling
For the purpose of study the 6 months (1st January to 21st July 2006) stock
price of various companies are collected.

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2.4Statistical Technique
In order to find out the solution for the research problems, various statistical
tools are taken. They are
Moving average
Run Test
High, low, close chart
Candlestick
Up trend line
Down trend line

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2.5THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
The share price movements are analyzed broadly with two approaches
namely, fundamental approach and technical approach.

Fundamental approach

analysis the share prices on the basis of economy, industry and company statistics.
If the price of the share is lower than its intrinsic value investors buys it. But, if the
price is higher than the intrinsic value he sells and gets profits. The technical analyst
mainly studies the stock price movements of the security market. If there is an
upward trend in the price movements investors may purchase the slip with the onset
of fall in price. He may sell it and move from the strip. Basically, technical analyst
and the fundamental analyst aim at good return on investment.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The technical analyst belief that share prices are determined the demand and
supply forces operating in the market. These demand and supply forces in turn are
influenced by a number of fundamental factors as well as certain psychological or
imotional factors. Many of these factors cannot be quantified. The combined impact
of all factors is reflected in the share price movement. The technical analyst there
fore concentrate on this movement of share prices. He claims that by examing past
share price movement future share price can be accurately predicted
The rational behind technical analysis is that share price behaviour repeats
itself over time and the analyst’s attempts to derive methods to predict this repetition.
The technical analyst looks at the past share price data to establish any of pattern.
He then looks at current price data to see any of the established patterns are
applicable and, if so, extra – potation can be made to predict the future price
movement.

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ASSUMPTIONS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (BASIC PRINCIPLES)
The basic principles on which technical analysis is based may be summarised
as follows :
1) The market value of a security is related to demand and supply factors
operating in the market.
2) Supply and demand is influenced by variety of factors both rational and
irrational. These include fundamental factors as well as psychological factors.
3) The market always moves in trend except for minor deviation, the stock prices
moves in trends. The price may create definite pattern too, the trend may be
either increasing or decreasing. The trend continues for some time and then
it reverses.
4) Trend in stock prices have been seen to change when there is a shift in the
demand and supply factors.
5) The shift in demand and supply can be detected through charts prepared
specially to show market action.
6) Because of this persistence of trend and patterns, analysis of past market
data can be used to predict future price behaviour.
HISTORY OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (Dow Theory)
The Dow theory was formulated by Charls H Dow, who was the editor
of the ‘Valstreet’ journal in USA during 1900-1902.
Proponent of the Dow theory refers to the three movements.
a) Primary trends representing bull and bear of the market.
b) Secondary movements or corrections that may last for few weeks to some
months.
c) Daily fluctuations

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Primary Trend:
The Primary movements are the long range cycle that carries the entire
market up or down. This is the long term trend in the market. An upward Primary
trend represents a Bull market, where as a downward Primary trends represents a
Bear market. A major upward move is said to occure when the high point of each
rally is higher than the higher point of the proceeding value and the low point of each
decline is higher than the low point of the proceeding decline likewise. A major
downward move is said to occure then the high point of each rally is lower than the
higher point of the preceding decline.
The following graph shows that Primary trend of Bull Market.

p

ric

e

d

a

t e

The following graph shows the primary level of Bear Market.

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t e

p

ric

e

D

a

t e

Secondary Trend:
The secondary trend or intermediate trend moves against the main trends
and leads to correction. In the bull market the secondary trend would result in the
fall 33 – 66 % of the earlier rise. In the bear market the secondary trend carries the
price upward and correct the main trend. The correction would be 33 – 66 % of the
earlier fall.

Intermediate trend corrects over bought and over sold condition.

Compared to the time taken for the primary trend, secondary trend is shift and quick.
The following figure shows the secondary movement.

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D

a

t e

Minor Trend :
Minor trends are simply the daily price fluctuations. Minor trends tries to
correct the secondary trend movement. It is better for the investors to concentrate
on primary or secondary trends than on the minor trends.

CHARTS
Technical analysts use a variety of charting techniques. Charts are the
valuable and easiest tools in the technical analysis. The graphic presentation of the
data helps the investor to find out the trend of the price without any difficulty. The
charts also have the following uses.
1 Spot the current trend for buying and selling
2 Indicate the probable future action of the market by the projection
3 Show the past historic movement
4 Indicate the important areas of support and resistance

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Following are the important charts used by technical analyst.
Line Chart:
It is the simplest price chart. In this chart the closing prices of a share are
ploted on the XY graph on a day-to-day basis. The closing price of each day would
be represented by a point on the XY graph.
All these point would be connected by a straight line, which would indicate the
trend of the market. The following chart shows the line chart.
Bar chart:
It is the most popular chart used by technical analysts. In this chart the
highest price the lowest price and the closing price of each day are quoted on a dayto-day basis by fixing the highest price and lowest price of a particular day by a
vertical line. The top of bar represents the lowest price of the day and a small
horizontal line on the right of the bar is used to represent the closing price of the
day.an example of price bar chart shown in the following figure.
Point and figure chart:
Point and figure chart has the following features,
1) On a PFC only significant price changes are recorded. For example, for a
stock that has a price in the range of, say 30-50 Rs. price changes one rupee
or more only may be posted.
2) The vertical scale of PFC represents the price of the stock, the horizontal
scale does not represent the time scale in the usual sense.
3) Each column on the horizontal column of the PFC represents a significant
reversal of price movements and not a trading day.

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Japanies Candlestick Chart :
The Japanies candlestick chart shows the highest price, the lowest price, the
opening price and the closing price of shares on a day to day basis. The highest
price and lowest price of a day are joined by a vertical bar. The opening price and
closing price of the day, which would fall below the highest, and the longest price
would be represented by a rectangle.

So that the price bar chart look like a

candlestick. Thus each days of activity is represented by a candlestick.
There are mainly three types of candlestick – The white, the black, the dogi or
neutral candlestick. A white candlestick is used to present a situation. Where the
closing price of the day is higher than the opening price. A black candlestick is used
when the closing price of the day is lower than the opening price.

Thus white

candlestick indicates a bullish trend and a black candlestick indicates a bearish
trend. A dogi candlestick is the one where the opening price and the closing price of
the day are same. A Japanies candlestick stock is illustrated below.

TRENDS AND TREND REVERSAL
Trend is the direction of movement of share price in the market. When prices
move upwards, it is a rising trend or up trend. When the prices move down wards it
is a falling trend or down trend. There is a flat trend when the prices move with in a
narrow range.
The change in the direction of trend is referred to as trend reversal a share
that exhibits. A rising trend may start to more narrowly or fall after some time. This
change in the direction of movement represents a trend reversal. The reversal from
a rising trend to a falling trend is marked by the formation of lower top and lower
bottom.

In the same way the reversal from a falling trend to rising trend is

characterized by the formation of higher bottom and higher top.

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The technical analyst tries to identify trend reversal at an early stage so as to
trade profitable in the market. When the trend reverses and begins to raise the
technical analyst would recommend purchase of the share. When the trend begins
to fall, sale is indicated, during a flat trend the investor should stay away from the
market.
Support and resistance level
Support and resistance are price levels at which the down trend or up trend in price
movements are reversed. Support occurs when price is falling but reverses direction
every time it reaches a particular level. When all these low points are connected by
a horizontal line, it forms the support line. In other words support level is the price
level at which sufficient buying pressure, is exerted to half the fall in prices.
Resistance occurs when the share price moves upwards. The price may bounds
back every time it reaches a particular level. A horizontal line joining these tops
forms the resistance level. Thus resistance level is the price level were sufficient
selling pressure exerted to half the ongoing rise in the price of a share.
Support and resistance usually occurs when the turnover of large number of share
tend to be concentrated at several price level. When the stock touches a certain
level and hen drops, this is called resistance and if the stock reaches down to a
certain level and then rises there exist a support. The following figure shows support
and resistance level.
1 If the script where to break the support level and move downwards, it has
bearish implications signaling the possibility of a further fall in the prices.
2 Similarly if the scrips where to penetrate the resistance level it would be an
indicator of a bullish trend or a further rise in the price.

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Cart Pattern
1 Head and Shoulder formation
The most popular reversal pattern is the head and shoulder formation, which
usually occurs at the end of a long up trend. This formation exhibits a hump or
top followed by a still higher top or peak and then another hump or lower top.
This formation resembles the head and two shoulders of a man and the name
head and shoulder formation.
The first hump, known as the left shoulder, is formed when the prices reach the
top under a strong buying impulse. Then trading volume becomes less and there
is a short downward swing. This followed by another high volume advance,
which takes the price to a higher top known as the head. This is followed by
another reaction on less volume, which takes the price take to bottom near to the
earlier down swing. A third rally now occurs taking the price to a height less than
the fixed but comparable to the left shoulder.
This rally results in the formation of the right shoulder a horizontal line joining the
bottoms this formation is known as the neckline. As the price penetrates this
neckline the formation of head and shoulder is completed.
The H and S formation usually occurs at the end of bull phase and is indicative of
a reversal trend after breaking the neckline the price is exempted to decline
sharply.

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Inverse head and shoulder formation
This pattern is the reverse of the H and S formation. This occurs at the end of a
bear phase and consist of three distinct bottoms. The first bottom is the left
shoulder, and then comes a lower bottom, which forms the head followed by the
third bottom, which is termed as the right shoulder. The neckline is drawn by
joining the tops from which the head and right shoulder originate. When the price
raises above the neckline the formation of the pattern is considered to be
completed. The inverse head and shoulder pattern is also a reversal pattern
indicative of an oncoming bullish phase.
2 V Formation
The name it self indicated that the ‘V’ formation there is a long sharp decline and
fast reversal.

The V pattern occurs mostly in the popular stocks where the

market interest changes quickly from hope to fear and vice versa. In the case of
inverted ‘^’ the rise occurs first and declines.
In this pattern the investor has to buy after up trend has started and exit before
the tope is reached.
3 Double top and Bottom ( M and W pattern)
This type of formation signals the end of one trend and the beginning of another.
If the double top formed when a stock price rises to a certain level, falls rapidly,
again rises to same height or more and turns down. Its pattern resembles the
letter ‘M’ the double top may indicate the onset of the bear market.
In a double a bottom, the price of the stock falls to a certain level and increase
with diminishing activity then it falls again to the same or to a lower price and
turns up to a higher level.

The double bottom resembles the better ‘W’.

Technical analyst view double bottom as a sign for bull mark
4

Triangles

The triangle formation is easy to identify and popular in technical analysis. The
triangles are of a symmetrical ascending, descending etc.
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a) Symmetrical triangle :
This pattern is made up of series of fluctuations, each fluctuation smaller than
the previous one top do not attain the height of the previous tops like wise
bottoms are higher than the previous bottoms. Connecting the lower tops that
are standing downward forms a symmetrical triangle connecting rising
bottom, which is standing upward becomes the lower trend value. It is not
easy to predict the break away either way. The symmetrical triangle has any
bias towards the bull and bear operators.

It indicates the slow down or

temporary half in the directions of the original trend.
b) Ascending Triangle
Here up trend line is almost a horizontal trend line connecting the tops and
the lower trends line is a rising trend line connecting the rising bottoms.
Ascending triangle pattern shows the bullish trend. This pattern is generally
spotted during an up move and the probability of the upward move is higher
there.
c) Descending triangle
Here connecting the lower tops from the upper trend line. The upper trend
line would be a falling one. The lower line indicates the support line. The
pattern indicates that the bear operators are more powerful than the bull
operators and shows a bearish trend.
5 Flags
The flag formation looks like a parallelogram with the two trend lines from two
parallel lines.
The volume of trading is expected to fall during formation of the flag and again pick
up on breaking up in the pattern.

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Technical indicators
1 Volume of trading
Historical data analysis of price and volume movement indicates that in a normal
market, the price rise in accompanies by an expanding volume. Termination of
phase is often accompanied by a selling climax following a decline in prices; a heavy
volume of trade with little price change is indicative of accumulation and is normally
a bullish factor. A strong bull market can exist as long as buying pressure continuous
to be strong. These indications are to be studied carefully before a final decision is
taken on the state of the market, whether a bullish or bearish, the phase of the up
trend or downtrend and look for buy and sell signals at the start of the reversal
trends.
2 Breadth of the market
The breadth of the market is the term often used to study the advances and declines
that have occurred in the stock market. Advances mean the number of shares
whose price has increased from the previous days trading. Declines indicate the
number of shares whose price has fallen from the previous days trading. This is
easy to plot and watch indicator because that are available all business dailies. The
net difference between the numbers of advanced and declined during the same
period s the breadth of the market. A cumulative index of net differences measures
the market breadth.
3 Short Sale
Short selling is a technical indicator known as short interest. Short sales refer to the
selling of shares that are not own the bears are the short sellers who sell now in the
hope of purchasing at a lower price in the future to make profit. The short sellers
have to cover out their positions. Short positions of scrips are published in the
business newspapers. Short sales of a particular month is selected and compared
with the average daily volume of the preceding months.
defined as follows.

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Short interest ratio is

Short interest ratio

= Total number of shares sold short /
Average daily trading volume

This ratio shows how many days of trading it would like to user. If the ratio is less
than the one, market is said to be weak or over bought and a decline can be
expected. The value between 1 and 0.5 shows natural condition of the market
values above ‘1’ indicate bullish trend and if it is above 2 the market is said to be
oversold at market tops, short selling is high and at market bottom short selling is
low.
4

Odd lot trading

Shares are generally sold in a lot of 100 shares, sold in small lots less than 100 are
called odd lot. Such buyers and sellers are called odd loters. Odd lot purchases to
odd lot sales (purchase / sales) are the odd lot index. The increase in odd lot
purchase results in an increase in the index, relatively more selling leads to fall in the
index. It is generally considered that the professional investor is more informed and
stronger than the odd lots. When the professional investors dominate the market,
the stock market is technically strong. Of the odd loters dominate the market, the
market is considered to be technically weak. The notion behind is that odd lot
purchase is concentrated at the top of the market cycle and selling at bottom. High
odd lot purchase forecast fall in the market price and low purchase / selling ratio
presumed to occur towards the end of bear market.
Mathematical indicators
5

Moving Average

The market indicates do not rise or fall in straight line. The upward and downward
movements are interpreted by countermoves. The underline trend can be studied by
smoothening of the data. To smooth the data moving average technique is used.
The moving averages are used to study the movement of the market as well as the
individual script price. The moving average indicates the underlining trend in the
scrip. The period of average determines the period of trend that is being identified.

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For identifying short term trend, 10 days to 30 days moving average is used. In the
case of medium term trend 50 day to 125 day are adopted. 200 days moving
average is used to identify long term.
a)

Index and stock price moving average : Individual stock price is compared with
stock market indicates the moving average of stock and the index are plotted in
the same sheet and trends are compared. Of NSE or BSE index is above stock
moving average line, the particular stock has bullish trend.

The price may

increase above the market average. If the SENSEX or NIFTY is below the
stock moving average, the bearish market can be expected for the particular
stock.
If the moving average of the stock penetrates the stock market index from
above, it generalize sell signal, unfavourable market condition prevails for the
particular scrip if the stock line push up through the market average, it is buy signal.
b)

Stock price and stock prices moving average: Buy and sell signals are provided
by the moving averages. Moving averages are used along with the price of the
scrip. The stock price may intersect the moving average at a particular point.
Downward penetration of the rising average indicates the possibility of a further
fall.

5

Oscillators

Oscillators are mathematical indicators calculated with the help of closing price data.
They help to identify over bought and oversold conditions and also the possibility of
trend reversal. These indicators are called oscillators because they move across a
reference point. The two important oscillators are
i)

Rate Of Change Indicator (ROC)

ii)

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

i)

Rate of change indicator: It is very popular oscillator, which measures the rate
of change of the current price as compared to the price of certain number of
days or weeks back. To calculate seven days rate of change each day price

29

is divided by the price, which prevails seven days ago and then one, is
substracted from this price rates.
ROC = current price / price ‘n’ period ago
The ROC values may be positive, negative or zero. The ROC values are
plotted on a xy graph, where the 'x' axis represents the time and the 'y' axis
represents the values of ROC. ROC values oscillate across the zero line
when the ROC line is above the zero line, the price is rising when it is bellow
the zero line, the price is falling. An ROC chart is shown in the following
figure.
ii)

Relative strength index: This is a powerful indicator that signals buying and
selling opportunity. RSI for a share calculated by using the following formula.
RSI = 100 – (100 / 1+ Rs.)
RS = Average gain per day / Average loss per day

The most commonly used time period for the calculation of RSI is 14 days. For the
calculation of 14 days RSI, the gain per day or loss per day is arrived by comparing
a closing price of a day with that of the previous day for a period of 14 days. The
gains are added up and divided by 14 to get the average gain per day. Similarly, the
losses are added up and divided by 14 to get the average loss per day.

30

CHAPTER:3-ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE
SHOWING MOVING AVG FOR INFOSYS
Date
Close
Avg
1-Jun-06
2829.85
2-Jun-06
2886
5-Jun-06
2824.25
6-Jun-06
2765.4
7-Jun-06
2763.25
8-Jun-06
2703.8
9-Jun-06
2794.65
12-Jun-06
2763.2
13-Jun-06
2639.1
14-Jun-06
2485.2
15-Jun-06
2727.05
16-Jun-06
2801.15
19-Jun-06
2871.2
20-Jun-06
2844
21-Jun-06
2923.25
22-Jun-06
2951.85
23-Jun-06
2991.55
25-Jun-06
2989.65
26-Jun-06
2900.2

Date

2745.47
2735.19
2726.705
2731.4
2739.26
2755.26
2780.065
2799.755
2822.4
2848.51

31

Close
Avg
27-Jun-06
2967.45
456.955
28-Jun-06
2974.5
594.195
29-Jun-06
2993.65
893.56
30-Jun-06
3078.95 1201.455
3-Jul-06
3154.35
1516.89
4-Jul-06
3149.65 1831.855
5-Jul-06
3194.1 2151.265
6-Jul-06
3163.85
2467.65
7-Jul-06
3105
2778.15
10-Jul-06
3188.05 3096.955
11-Jul-06
3148.2
3115.03
12-Jul-06
3385.65 3156.145
13-Jul-06
1681.95 3024.975
14-Jul-06
1648.75 2881.955
17-Jul-06
1605.25 2727.045
18-Jul-06
1629.55 2575.035
19-Jul-06
1604.55
2416.08
20-Jul-06
1647.85
2264.48
21-Jul-06
1602.1
2114.19

MOVING AVERAGE FOR INFOSYS

E
C
I
R
P

3500
3300
3100
2900
2700
2500
2300
2100
1900
1700
1500

Clo se

b

Avg

a

6
0
0
2
/
1
/
6

6
0
0
2
/
8
/
6

6
0
0
2
/
5
/1
6

6
0
0
2
/
2
/2
6

6
0
0
2
/
9
/2
6

6
0
0
2
/
6
/
7

6
0
0
2
/
3
/1
7

6
0
0
2
/
0
/2
7

DATE

INTERPRETATION:
The moving averge for infosys shows that it has buy signal at a point a and a
sell signal at point b.

32

RUN TEST OF INFOSYS
Date

Close
Sign
1-Jun-06
2829.85
2-Jun-06
2886+
5-Jun-06
2824.256-Jun-06
2765.47-Jun-06
2763.258-Jun-06
2703.89-Jun-06
2794.65+
12-Jun-06
2763.213-Jun-06
2639.114-Jun-06
2485.215-Jun-06
2727.05+
16-Jun-06
2801.15+
19-Jun-06
2871.2+
20-Jun-06
284421-Jun-06
2923.25+
22-Jun-06
2951.85+
23-Jun-06
2991.55+
25-Jun-06
2989.65+
26-Jun-06
2900.2-

Runs

Date
1

2
3

4

5
6

7
8

33

Close
Sign
27-Jun-06
2967.45+
28-Jun-06
2974.5+
29-Jun-06
2993.65+
30-Jun-06
3078.95+
3-Jul-06
3154.35+
4-Jul-06
3149.655-Jul-06
3194.1+
6-Jul-06
3163.857-Jul-06
310510-Jul-06
3188.05+
11-Jul-06
3148.212-Jul-06
3385.65+
13-Jul-06
1681.9514-Jul-06
1648.7517-Jul-06
1605.2518-Jul-06
1629.55+
19-Jul-06
1604.5520-Jul-06
1647.85+
21-Jul-06
1602.1-

Runs

9
10
11
12
13
14
15

16
17
18
19
20

Run test=Z
Z=(R-X)/σ
R=No. of runs
R=20
n1=19
n2=19
X=(2n1n2)/(n1+n2)+1

σ

2

2
=[2n1n2(2n1n2-n1-n2)]/(n1+n2) (n1+n2-1)

X=(2*19*19)/(19+19)+1
X=20
2 =[2∗19∗19(2∗19∗19−19−19)]/(19+19)2 (19+19−1)

σ
σ =√34.94043
σ =5.9110

Z=(20-20)/5.9110
Z=0

INTERPRETATION:
Since the calculated value is 0 is less than 1.96 the runs are occurred by
chance.

34

TABLE SHOWING HIGH LOW CLOSE PRICE FOR INFOSYS
Date
Open
High
Low
Close
1-Jun-06
2949
2965
2805.1 2829.85
2-Jun-06
2850
2900
2810
2886
5-Jun-06
2918
2924 2810.25 2824.25
6-Jun-06
2800 2843.95 2745.55
2765.4
7-Jun-06
2754
2790
2700 2763.25
8-Jun-06
2785.4
2785.4 2605.35
2703.8
9-Jun-06 2683.15
2825 2683.15 2794.65
12-Jun-06
2800
2848
2725
2763.2
13-Jun-06
2747
2750 2620.35
2639.1
14-Jun-06
2694.7
2719
2450
2485.2
15-Jun-06
2560
2761
2540 2727.05
16-Jun-06
2761
2913.7
2761 2801.15
19-Jun-06
2800
2890
2775
2871.2
20-Jun-06
2858
2870
2801
2844
21-Jun-06
2825
2935
2810 2923.25
22-Jun-06
2994.7
2994.7 2931.05 2951.85
23-Jun-06 2931.05
3010
2890 2991.55
25-Jun-06
2995
3020
2980 2989.65
26-Jun-06
2999
2999
2890
2900.2

35

Date
Open
High
Low
Close
27-Jun-06
2905
2980
2842.1 2967.45
28-Jun-06 2931.25
2994
2880
2974.5
29-Jun-06
2994
3020 2985.25 2993.65
30-Jun-06
3084
3130
3025 3078.95
3-Jul-06
3085
3160 3062.35 3154.35
4-Jul-06
3160
3189.7
3135 3149.65
5-Jul-06
3180
3204.3 3111.05
3194.1
6-Jul-06
3146.1
3190
3125 3163.85
7-Jul-06
3190
3240 3092.05
3105
10-Jul-06
3189
3195
3101.1 3188.05
11-Jul-06
3199
3225
3135
3148.2
12-Jul-06
3300
3400
3205 3385.65
13-Jul-06
1748
1799
1666 1681.95
14-Jul-06
1650 1661.05
1620 1648.75
17-Jul-06
1641
1645.7
1600 1605.25
18-Jul-06 1610.35
1645
1605 1629.55
19-Jul-06
1661
1661
1597.1 1604.55
20-Jul-06
1698.7
1698.7
1633 1647.85
21-Jul-06
1634.8
1634.8
1580.5
1602.1

INTERPRIETATION:
The high low close chart shows the high,low,close price of an equity on
the trading day.

36

TABLE SHOWING HEAD
AND SHOULDER FOR
INFOSYS
Date
price
1-Jun-06
2-Jun-06
5-Jun-06
6-Jun-06
7-Jun-06
8-Jun-06
9-Jun-06
12-Jun-06
13-Jun-06
14-Jun-06
15-Jun-06
16-Jun-06
19-Jun-06
20-Jun-06

date
2829.85
2886
2824.25
2765.4
2763.25
2703.8
2794.65
2763.2
2639.1
2485.2
2727.05
2801.15
2871.2
2844

price
21-Jun-06
2923.25
22-Jun-06
2951.85
23-Jun-06
2991.55
25-Jun-06
2989.65
26-Jun-06
2900.2
27-Jun-06
2967.45
28-Jun-06
2974.5
29-Jun-06
2993.65
30-Jun-06
3078.95
3-Jul-06
3154.35
4-Jul-06
3149.65
5-Jul-06
3194.1
6-Jul-06
3163.85
7-Jul-06
3105

HEAD AND SHOULDER FOR INFOSYS
3050
3000
2950
E
IC2900
R
P2850

HEAD
LEFT
SHOULDER

2800

RIGHT

SELL SIGNAL
NECKLINE

2750

DATE

INTERPRETATION:
The breaking of the neck line on the right shoulder is a buy signal and the
breaking of the left shoulder is a sell signal.

37

TABLE SHOWING UP TREND OF INFOSYS
date

price

date

price

date

price

1-Mar-06

2905.15

31-Mar-06

2981.4

4-May-06

3211.3

2-Mar-06

2854.3

3-Apr-06

3142.15

5-May-06

3212.1

3-Mar-06

2824.35

4-Apr-06

3152.7

6-May-06

3228.25

6-Mar-06

2855

5-Apr-06

3114.75

7-May-06

3237.15

7-Mar-06

2819.5

7-Apr-06

3167

8-May-06

3256.25

8-Mar-06

2801.15

10-Apr-06

3189.3

9-May-06

3256.05

9-Mar-06

2843

12-Apr-06

3075.65

10-May-06

3242.3

10-Mar-06

2913.5

13-Apr-06

3018.85

11-May-06

3151.1

13-Mar-06

2935.2

17-Apr-06

3229.95

12-May-06

3150.05

14-Mar-06

2932.45

18-Apr-06

3336

13-May-06

3208.2

16-Mar-06

2921.8

19-Apr-06

3278.8

14-May-06

3033.95

17-Mar-06

2877.95

20-Apr-06

3276.6

15-May-06

2974.45

20-Mar-06

2966.9

21-Apr-06

3301.7

16-May-06

2823.7

21-Mar-06

2959.75

24-Apr-06

3204.8

17-May-06

2910.65

22-Mar-06

2920

25-Apr-06

3141.85

18-May-06

2860.95

23-Mar-06

2890.45

26-Apr-06

3224.95

19-May-06

2828.55

24-Mar-06

2896.35

27-Apr-06

3132.7

20-May-06

2934.25

27-Mar-06

2879.3

28-Apr-06

3139.65

21-May-06

2967.7

28-Mar-06

2960

29-Apr-06

3177.35

22-May-06

3026.5

29-Mar-06

3036.55

2-May-06

3164.25

23-May-06

2909.85

30-Mar-06

3043

3-May-06

3171.4

38

INTERPRETATION:
The up ward breaking of the up ward trend line is a buy signal and down ward
breaking is a sell signal.

39

TABLE SHOWING DOWN TREND FOR INFOSYS
Date
Close
1-Jun-06 2829.85
2-Jun-06
2886
5-Jun-06 2824.25
6-Jun-06
2765.4
7-Jun-06 2763.25
8-Jun-06
2703.8
9-Jun-06 2794.65

INTERPRETATION:
The up ward breaking of the downward trend line is a buy signal and
down ward breaking is a sell signal.

40

TABLE SHOWING OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE PRICE OF INFOSYS
Date

Open

High

Low

Close

1-Jun-06

2949

2965

2-Jun-06

2850

2900

5-Jun-06

2918

2924 2810.25 2824.25

6-Jun-06

2800 2843.95 2745.55

7-Jun-06

2754

8-Jun-06

2785.4

9-Jun-06 2683.15

Date

Low

Close

2980

28-Jun-06 2931.25

2994

29-Jun-06

2994

3020 2985.25 2993.65

2765.4

30-Jun-06

3084

3130

2700 2763.25

3-Jul-06

3085

3160 3062.35 3154.35

2703.8

4-Jul-06

3160

3189.7

2825 2683.15 2794.65

5-Jul-06

3180

3204.3 3111.05

2810

2785.4 2605.35

27-Jun-06

High

2905

2790

2805.1 2829.85

Open

2886

2880

2974.5

3025 3078.95
3135 3149.65
3194.1

12-Jun-06

2800

2848

2725

2763.2

6-Jul-06

3146.1

13-Jun-06

2747

2750 2620.35

2639.1

7-Jul-06

3190

3240 3092.05

14-Jun-06

2694.7

2719

2450

2485.2

10-Jul-06

3189

3195

15-Jun-06

2560

2761

2540 2727.05

11-Jul-06

3199

3225

3135

16-Jun-06

2761

2913.7

2761 2801.15

12-Jul-06

3300

3400

3205 3385.65

19-Jun-06

2800

2890

2775

2871.2

13-Jul-06

1748

1799

1666 1681.95

20-Jun-06

2858

2870

2801

2844

14-Jul-06

1650 1661.05

1620 1648.75

21-Jun-06

2825

2935

2810 2923.25

17-Jul-06

1641

1645.7

1600 1605.25

22-Jun-06

2994.7

18-Jul-06 1610.35

1645

1605 1629.55

2994.7 2931.05 2951.85

3190

2842.1 2967.45

3125 3163.85
3105

3101.1 3188.05
3148.2

23-Jun-06 2931.05

3010

2890 2991.55

19-Jul-06

1661

1661

1597.1 1604.55

25-Jun-06

2995

3020

2980 2989.65

20-Jul-06

1698.7

1698.7

1633 1647.85

26-Jun-06

2999

2999

2890

21-Jul-06

1634.8

1634.8

2900.2

41

1580.5

1602.1

INTERPRIETATION:
The candlestick diagram shows both the black,white and doby candle
stick also . It means that there is fluctuations in the price.

42

MOVING AVG FOR WIPRO
Date

Close

Avg

Date

Close

Avg

1-Jun-06

444.7

27-Jun-06

473.9

449.035

2-Jun-06

469.9

28-Jun-06

484.15

455.45

5-Jun-06

457.5

29-Jun-06

496.7

461.07

6-Jun-06

445.2

30-Jun-06

513.35

468.82

7-Jun-06

445.35

3-Jul-06

502.5

476.88

8-Jun-06

419.55

4-Jul-06

500.65

483.055

9-Jun-06

434.9

5-Jul-06

496.85

487.695

12-Jun-06

422.3

6-Jul-06

491.1

489.845

13-Jun-06

395.3

7-Jul-06

468.85

489.195

14-Jun-06

389.5

432.42

10-Jul-06

493.85

492.19

15-Jun-06

420

429.95

11-Jul-06

495.5

494.35

16-Jun-06

440.5

427.01

12-Jul-06

516.4

497.575

19-Jun-06

435.85

424.845

13-Jul-06

502.6

498.165

20-Jun-06

421.9

422.515

14-Jul-06

489.1

495.74

21-Jun-06

438.9

421.87

17-Jul-06

478.7

493.36

22-Jun-06

450.45

424.96

18-Jul-06

485.25

491.82

23-Jun-06

469.6

428.43

19-Jul-06

458.35

487.97

25-Jun-06

475.35

433.735

20-Jul-06

469.95

485.855

26-Jun-06

463.9

440.595

21-Jul-06

449

483.87

43

INTERPRETATION:
The moving averge for

shows that it has buy signal at a point a and a sell

signal at point b.

44

TABLE SHOWING RUN TEST FOR WIPRO

Date

Close

Sign

1-Jun-06

444.7

2-Jun-06

469.9

+

5-Jun-06

457.5

-

6-Jun-06

445.2

-

7-Jun-06

445.35

8-Jun-06

Run

Date

Close

Sign

Run

27-Jun-06

473.9

+

28-Jun-06

484.15

-

29-Jun-06

496.7

+

2

30-Jun-06

513.35

+

+

3

3-Jul-06

502.5

-

419.55

-

4

4-Jul-06

500.65

-

9-Jun-06

434.9

+

5

5-Jul-06

496.85

-

12-Jun-06

422.3

-

6-Jul-06

491.1

-

13-Jun-06

395.3

-

7-Jul-06

468.85

-

14-Jun-06

389.5

-

10-Jul-06

493.85

+

15-Jun-06

420

+

11-Jul-06

495.5

+

16-Jun-06

440.5

+

12-Jul-06

516.4

+

19-Jun-06

435.85

-

13-Jul-06

502.6

-

20-Jun-06

421.9

-

14-Jul-06

489.1

-

21-Jun-06

438.9

+

17-Jul-06

478.7

-

16

22-Jun-06

450.45

+

18-Jul-06

485.25

+

17

23-Jun-06

469.6

+

19-Jul-06

458.35

-

18

25-Jun-06

475.35

+

9

20-Jul-06

469.95

+

19

26-Jun-06

463.9

-

10

21-Jul-06

449

-

20

1

6
7
8

45

11
13

14

15

Run test=Z
Z=(R-X)/s
R=No. of runs
R=20
n1=17
n2=21
X=(2n1n2)/(n1+n2)+1
s2=[2n1n2(2n1n2-n1-n2)]/(n1+n2)2(n1+n2-1)
X=(2*17*21)/(17+21)+1
X=19.7895
s2=[2*17*21(2*17*21-17-21)]/(17+21)2(17+21-1)
s=Ö9.0339
s=3.0056
Z=(20-197895)/3.0056
Z=0.070

INTERPRETATION:
Since the calculated value is .070 is less than 1.96 the runs are
occurred by chance.

46

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE PRICE FOR WIPRO

47

Date
Open
High
Low
Close
Date
Open
High
Low
Close
1-Jun-06
452
467
433.1
444.7
27-Jun-06
465
484
454
473.9
2-Jun-06
447.05
474
439.8
469.9
28-Jun-06
468
490
457.3
484.15
5-Jun-06
472.4
479.9
452
457.5
29-Jun-06
484.15
500
482
496.7
6-Jun-06
455
469.55
436.2
445.2
30-Jun-06
500.1
519
500.1
513.35
7-Jun-06
442.4
453.8
434
445.35
3-Jul-06
517.4 517.4
496.6
502.5
8-Jun-06
441
442
413
419.55
4-Jul-06
506 514.6
499
500.65
9-Jun-06
420
440.6
410.05
434.9
5-Jul-06
509.9 509.9
489.55
496.85
12-Jun-06
432.1
437
419.1
422.3
6-Jul-06
494 497.9
485.55
491.1
13-Jun-06
420
420
391
395.3
7-Jul-06
493.5 499.4
465.15
468.85
14-Jun-06
391
421
381.25
389.5
10-Jul-06
471.3 498.4
465
493.85
15-Jun-06
407
424.4
400
420
11-Jul-06
504.95
506
481.1
495.5
16-Jun-06
425
457.4
425
440.5
12-Jul-06
495 517.8
481
516.4
19-Jun-06
435.15
450
420.65
435.85
13-Jul-06
517
519
500
502.6
20-Jun-06
432
434
418.15
421.9
14-Jul-06
498
500
480.95
489.1
21-Jun-06
425.9
444.9
425
438.9
17-Jul-06
487.95
492
475
478.7
22-Jun-06
445
460
445
450.45
18-Jul-06
476
488
471
485.25
23-Jun-06
449.1
485
430.35
469.6
19-Jul-06
491.15 498.7
452
458.35
25-Jun-06
489
489
472
475.35
20-Jul-06
470 478.4
465
469.95
26-Jun-06
480
481
460
463.9
21-Jul-06
465 469.9
444.1
449

INTERPRIETATION:

The high low close chart shows the high,low,close

price of an equity on the trading day.
.

TABLE SHOWING HEAD AND SHOULDER FOR WIPRO

48

DATE

PRICE

5-Jul-06

496.85

6-Jul-06

491.1

7-Jul-06

468.85

10-Jul-06

493.85

11-Jul-06

495.5

12-Jul-06

516.4

13-Jul-06

502.6

14-Jul-06

489.1

17-Jul-06

478.7

18-Jul-06

485.25

19-Jul-06

458.35

INTERPRETATION:
The breaking of the neck line on the right shoulder is a buy signal and the
breaking of the left shoulder is a sell signal.

49

TABLE SHOWING UP TREND OF WIPRO
date

price

date

price

21-Apr-06

548.9

19-May-06

474.15

24-Apr-06

532.4

22-May-06

454.4

25-Apr-06

526.95

23-May-06

486.25

26-Apr-06

548.9

24-May-06

475

27-Apr-06

547.25

25-May-06

470.65

28-Apr-06
29-Apr-06

537.15
538.55

26-May-06
27-May-06

471.1
449.7

2-May-06

539.3

1-Jun-06

444.7

3-May-06

539.2

2-Jun-06

469.9

4-May-06

540.85

5-Jun-06

457.5

5-May-06

539.45

6-Jun-06

445.2

8-May-06

538.5

7-Jun-06

445.35

9-May-06

538.7

8-Jun-06

419.55

10-May-06

542.6

9-Jun-06

434.9

11-May-06

544.85

12-Jun-06

422.3

12-May-06

544.55

13-Jun-06

395.3

13-May-06

534.6

14-Jun-06

389.5

14-May-06

534.15

15-Jun-06

420

15-May-06

543.95

16-Jun-06

440.5

16-May-06

507.55

19-Jun-06

435.85

17-May-06

487.7

20-Jun-06

421.9

18-May-06

441.8

21-Jun-06

438.9

50

INTERPRETATION:
The up ward breaking of the up ward trend line is a buy signal and down ward
breaking is a sell signal.

DOWN TREND DATA FOR
WIPRO
DATE
PRICE
DATE
PRICE
15-May-06
544.55
7-Jun-06
469.9
16-May-06
534.6
8-Jun-06
457.5
17-May-06
534.15
9-Jun-06
445.2
18-May-06
543.95
12-Jun-06
445.35
19-May-06
507.55
13-Jun-06
419.55
20-May-06
487.7
14-Jun-06
434.9
21-May-06
441.8
15-Jun-06
422.3
22-May-06
474.15
16-Jun-06
395.3
23-May-06
454.4
19-Jun-06
389.5
24-May-06
486.25
20-Jun-06
420
25-May-06
475
21-Jun-06
440.5
22-Jun-06
1-Jun-06
470.65
435.85
51
23-Jun-06
2-Jun-06
471.1
421.9
5-Jun-06
449.7
25-Jun-06
438.9
6-Jun-06
444.7
26-Jun-06
450.45

INTERPRETATION:
The up ward breaking of the downward trend line is a buy signal and
down ward breaking is a sell signal.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE PRICE FOR WIPRO
Date

Open

High

Low

Close

Date

52

Open

High

Low

Close

1-Jun-06
2-Jun-06
5-Jun-06
6-Jun-06
7-Jun-06
8-Jun-06
9-Jun-06
12-Jun-06
13-Jun-06
14-Jun-06
15-Jun-06
16-Jun-06
19-Jun-06
20-Jun-06
21-Jun-06
22-Jun-06
23-Jun-06
25-Jun-06
26-Jun-06

452
447.05
472.4
455
442.4
441
420
432.1
420
391
407
425
435.15
432
425.9
445
449.1
489
480

467
474
479.9
469.55
453.8
442
440.6
437
420
421
424.4
457.4
450
434
444.9
460
485
489
481

433.1
439.8
452
436.2
434
413
410.05
419.1
391
381.25
400
425
420.65
418.15
425
445
430.35
472
460

444.7
469.9
457.5
445.2
445.35
419.55
434.9
422.3
395.3
389.5
420
440.5
435.85
421.9
438.9
450.45
469.6
475.35
463.9

27-Jun-06
28-Jun-06
29-Jun-06
30-Jun-06
3-Jul-06
4-Jul-06
5-Jul-06
6-Jul-06
7-Jul-06
10-Jul-06
11-Jul-06
12-Jul-06
13-Jul-06
14-Jul-06
17-Jul-06
18-Jul-06
19-Jul-06
20-Jul-06
21-Jul-06

465
468
484.15
500.1
517.4
506
509.9
494
493.5
471.3
504.95
495
517
498
487.95
476
491.15
470
465

484
490
500
519
517.4
514.6
509.9
497.9
499.4
498.4
506
517.8
519
500
492
488
498.7
478.4
469.9

454
457.3
482
500.1
496.6
499
489.55
485.55
465.15
465
481.1
481
500
480.95
475
471
452
465
444.1

INTERPRIETATION:
The black candlestick means previous closing price is more than todays
open&white means opening price is greater than the previous closing price.

53

473.9
484.15
496.7
513.35
502.5
500.65
496.85
491.1
468.85
493.85
495.5
516.4
502.6
489.1
478.7
485.25
458.35
469.95
449

TABLE SHOWING MOVING AVEREGE FOR GLAXO
Date
1-Jun-06
2-Jun-06
5-Jun-06
6-Jun-06
7-Jun-06
8-Jun-06
9-Jun-06
12-Jun-06
13-Jun-06
14-Jun-06
15-Jun-06
16-Jun-06
19-Jun-06
20-Jun-06
21-Jun-06
22-Jun-06
23-Jun-06
25-Jun-06
26-Jun-06

Close
Avg
Date
1076.55
27-Jun-06
1121
28-Jun-06
1085.8
29-Jun-06
1053.25
30-Jun-06
1006
3-Jul-06
972.85
4-Jul-06
1042.8
5-Jul-06
1038.95
6-Jul-06
951.8
7-Jul-06
958.95 1030.795 10-Jul-06
1038.85 1027.025 11-Jul-06
998.15 1014.74 12-Jul-06
986.5 1004.81 13-Jul-06
971.95
996.68 14-Jul-06
984.9
994.57 17-Jul-06
1013.75
998.66 18-Jul-06
1011
995.48 19-Jul-06
1016.6 993.245 20-Jul-06
972.35
995.3 21-Jul-06

54

Close
966.1
974.2
985.2
1037.3
1054.15
1030
1037.6
1018.15
1026
1049.15
1062.7
1046.35
1032.9
1009.15
1006.1
1000.85
980.15
995.2
983

Avg
96.61
194.03
292.55
396.28
501.695
604.695
708.455
810.27
912.87
1017.785
1027.445
1034.66
1039.43
1036.615
1031.81
1028.895
1023.15
1020.855
1016.555

INTERPRETATION:
The moving averge for

shows that it has buy signal at a point a,c,e and a

sell signal at point b,d.

TABLE SHOWING RUN TEST FOR GLAXO
Date

Close

Sign

Runs

55

Date

Close

Sign

Runs

1-Jun-06
2-Jun-06
5-Jun-06
6-Jun-06
7-Jun-06
8-Jun-06
9-Jun-06
12-Jun-06
13-Jun-06
14-Jun-06
15-Jun-06
16-Jun-06
19-Jun-06
20-Jun-06
21-Jun-06
22-Jun-06
23-Jun-06
25-Jun-06
26-Jun-06

1076.55
1121
1085.8
1053.25
1006
972.85
1042.8
1038.95
951.8
958.95
1038.85
998.15
986.5
971.95
984.9
1013.75
1011
1016.6
972.35

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-

1

2
3
4
5

6
7
8
8

56

27-Jun-06
28-Jun-06
29-Jun-06
30-Jun-06
3-Jul-06
4-Jul-06
5-Jul-06
6-Jul-06
7-Jul-06
10-Jul-06
11-Jul-06
12-Jul-06
13-Jul-06
14-Jul-06
17-Jul-06
18-Jul-06
19-Jul-06
20-Jul-06
21-Jul-06

966.1
974.2
985.2
1037.3
1054.15
1030
1037.6
1018.15
1026
1049.15
1062.7
1046.35
1032.9
1009.15
1006.1
1000.85
980.15
995.2
983

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-

9

9
10
11
12

13

14
15
16

Run test=Z
Z=(R-X)/σ
R=No. of runs
R=16
n1=16
n2=22
X=(2n1n2)/(n1+n2)+1

σ

2
2
=[2n1n2(2n1n2-n1-n2)]/(n1+n2) (n1+n2-1)

X=(2*16*22)/(16+22)+1
X=19.5263

σ

σ

2

2
=[2*16*22(2*16*22-16-22)]/(16+22) (16+22-1)

=√ 8.7756

σ = 2.9624

Z=(16-19.5263)/2.9624
Z=-1.1904

INTERPRETATION:
Since the calculated value is -1.1904 is less than 1.96 the runs are occurred
by chance.
TABLE SHOWING HIGH LOW CLOSE PRICE FOR GLAXO
Date
High
Low
Close
Date
High
Low
Close
1-Jan-06
1179
1050 1076.55 27-Jun-06
980
936.2
966.1
2-Jun-06 1134.65
1036.1
1121 28-Jun-06
984
948
974.2
5-Jun-06
1166
1075
1085.8 29-Jun-06
1015
971.25
985.2
6-Jun-06
1080
1037 1053.25 30-Jun-06
1050
1009
1037.3
7-Jun-06 1054.75
995
1006 3-Jul-06
1063.9
1018 1054.15
8-Jun-06
1005
921
972.85 4-Jul-06
1057.8
1025
1030
9-Jun-06
1064
945.05
1042.8 5-Jul-06
1044
1022
1037.6
12-Jun-06
1074
975 1038.95 6-Jul-06
1035
1012 1018.15
13-Jun-06
996.95
935
951.8 7-Jul-06
1049
1019
1026
14-Jun-06
995
940
958.95 10-Jul-06
1054 1003.75 1049.15
15-Jun-06
1065
958 1038.85 11-Jul-06
1071.8
1028
1062.7
16-Jun-06
1095
901
998.15 12-Jul-06
1060.9
1031.2 1046.35
19-Jun-06
1087
961.15
986.5 13-Jul-06
1060
1028
1032.9
20-Jun-06
999
956.1
971.95 14-Jul-06
1038
1000 1009.15
21-Jun-06
999.8
970
984.9 17-Jul-06 1028.85
982.15
1006.1
22-Jun-06
1034
1005 1013.75 18-Jul-06
1034.9
991.2 1000.85
23-Jun-06
1020
962
1011 19-Jul-06
1019
978.25
980.15
25-Jun-06
1025
998
1016.6 20-Jul-06
1009
985.2
995.2
26-Jun-06
1030
962
972.35 21-Jul-06
1000
978
983

57

INTERPRIETATION:
The high low close chart shows the high,low,close price of an equity on the
trading day.
.

58

TABLE SHOWING HEAD AND SHOULDER FOR GLAXO
Date
Price
Date
Price
25-Jun-06
1016.6 11-Jul-06
1062.7
26-Jun-06
972.35 12-Jul-06 1046.35
27-Jun-06
966.1 13-Jul-06
1032.9
28-Jun-06
974.2 14-Jul-06 1009.15
29-Jun-06
985.2 17-Jul-06
1006.1
30-Jun-06
1037.3 18-Jul-06 1000.85
3-Jul-06 1054.15 19-Jul-06
980.15
4-Jul-06
1030 20-Jul-06
995.2
5-Jul-06
1037.6 21-Jul-06
983
6-Jul-06 1018.15 24-Jul-06
998.1
7-Jul-06
1026 25-Jul-06
1023.2
10-Jul-06 1049.15 26-Jul-06
1017

INTERPRETATION:
The breaking of the neck line on the right shoulder is a buy signal and the
breaking of the left shoulder is a sell signal.
TABLE SHOWING UP TREND FOR GLAXO

59

Date
Price
Date
Price
Date
Price
9-Dec-05 1128.05 30-Dec-05 1121.75 23-Jan-06 1191.85
12-Dec-05 1120.25 2-Jan-06
1111.6 24-Jan-06 1234.35
13-Dec-05
1121.2 3-Jan-06
1180.8 25-Jan-06
1220.6
14-Dec-05
1121.1 4-Jan-06 1211.85 27-Jan-06
1275.1
15-Dec-05
1080.8 5-Jan-06
1231.9 30-Jan-06 1279.45
16-Dec-05
1098.9 6-Jan-06 1221.55 31-Jan-06
1282.8
19-Dec-05 1115.95 9-Jan-06 1231.05 1-Feb-06
1260.7
20-Dec-05
1105.5 10-Jan-06 1215.95 2-Feb-06
1273.8
21-Dec-05 1099.15 12-Jan-06 1201.35 3-Feb-06 1332.15
22-Dec-05
1111.5 13-Jan-06
1202.3 6-Feb-06 1390.75
23-Dec-05 1081.35 16-Jan-06 1211.35 7-Feb-06 1363.85
26-Dec-05
1060.8 17-Jan-06 1210.75 8-Feb-06 1351.75
27-Dec-05
1089.2 18-Jan-06 1214.45 10-Feb-06 1383.85
28-Dec-05 1100.75 19-Jan-06 1220.75 13-Feb-06
1380.7
29-Dec-05
1098.8 20-Jan-06
1206 14-Feb-06
1358

INTERPRETATION:
The up ward breaking of the up ward trend line is a buy signal and down ward
breaking is a sell signal.

TABLE SHOWING DOWN TREND FOR GLAXO

60

Date
Price
Date
Price
Date
Price
2-May-06 1392.75 22-May-06 1031.85 9-Jun-06
1042.8
3-May-06
1412.3 23-May-06 1107.75 12-Jun-06 1038.95
4-May-06 1420.95 24-May-06
1177.7 13-Jun-06
951.8
5-May-06 1430.95 25-May-06
1157.2 14-Jun-06
958.95
8-May-06 1471.75 26-May-06
1160.5 15-Jun-06 1038.85
9-May-06 1468.15 29-May-06
1157.8 16-Jun-06
998.15
10-May-06
1450.4 30-May-06 1151.25 19-Jun-06
986.5
11-May-06
1418.7 31-May-06
1130 20-Jun-06
971.95
12-May-06 1413.25 1-Jun-06 1076.55 21-Jun-06
984.9
15-May-06
1307.5 2-Jun-06
1121 22-Jun-06 1013.75
16-May-06
1279.9 5-Jun-06
1085.8 23-Jun-06
1011
17-May-06
1315.5 6-Jun-06 1053.25 25-Jun-06
1016.6
18-May-06
1205.6 7-Jun-06
1006 26-Jun-06
972.35
19-May-06 1102.75 8-Jun-06
972.85 27-Jun-06
966.1

INTERPRETATION:
The up ward breaking of the downward trend line is a buy signal and
down ward breaking is a sell signal.

61

TABLE SHOWING OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE PRICE FOR GLAXO
Date
Open
High
Low
Close
Date
Open
High
Low
Close
1-Jan-06
1179
1179
1050 1076.55 27-Jun-06
971
980
936.2
966.1
2-Jun-06
1050 1134.65
1036.1
1121 28-Jun-06
966.1
984
948
974.2
5-Jun-06
1166
1166
1075
1085.8 29-Jun-06
988.9
1015
971.25
985.2
6-Jun-06
1040
1080
1037 1053.25 30-Jun-06
1013.9
1050
1009
1037.3
7-Jun-06
1049.9 1054.75
995
1006 3-Jul-06
1037.3
1063.9
1018 1054.15
8-Jun-06
999
1005
921
972.85 4-Jul-06
1047.1
1057.8
1025
1030
9-Jun-06
990
1064
945.05
1042.8 5-Jul-06
1036
1044
1022
1037.6
12-Jun-06
1045
1074
975 1038.95 6-Jul-06
1035
1035
1012 1018.15
13-Jun-06
976
996.95
935
951.8 7-Jul-06
1025
1049
1019
1026
14-Jun-06
977
995
940
958.95 10-Jul-06 1003.75
1054 1003.75 1049.15
15-Jun-06
966
1065
958 1038.85 11-Jul-06
1059.7
1071.8
1028
1062.7
16-Jun-06
1065
1095
901
998.15 12-Jul-06
1060.9
1060.9
1031.2 1046.35
19-Jun-06
1087
1087
961.15
986.5 13-Jul-06
1030.1
1060
1028
1032.9
20-Jun-06
999
999
956.1
971.95 14-Jul-06
1038
1038
1000 1009.15
21-Jun-06
970
999.8
970
984.9 17-Jul-06
1001.1 1028.85
982.15
1006.1
22-Jun-06 1011.25
1034
1005 1013.75 18-Jul-06
1005
1034.9
991.2 1000.85
23-Jun-06
1000
1020
962
1011 19-Jul-06
1011.1
1019
978.25
980.15
25-Jun-06
998
1025
998
1016.6 20-Jul-06
1000
1009
985.2
995.2
26-Jun-06
1016.6
1030
962
972.35 21-Jul-06
1000
1000
978
983

62

INTERPRIETATION:
The candlestick for shows a white and black candle stick . It means
the opening price and the closing price of the stock is fluctuating.

63

TABLE SHOWING MOVING AVERGE FOR RANBAXY

Date
1-Jun-06
2-Jun-06
5-Jun-06
6-Jun-06
7-Jun-06
8-Jun-06
9-Jun-06
12-Jun-06
13-Jun-06
14-Jun-06
15-Jun-06
16-Jun-06
19-Jun-06
20-Jun-06
21-Jun-06
22-Jun-06
23-Jun-06
25-Jun-06
26-Jun-06

Close
403.45
425.65
411.2
388.05
365.85
343.1
364.15
360.4
356.3
348.85
361.9
369.8
371.15
373.45
375.2
370.9
385.55
391.15
371.25

Avg

64

376.7
372.545
366.96
362.955
361.495
362.43
365.21
367.35
370.425
371.92

Date
27-Jun-06
28-Jun-06
29-Jun-06
30-Jun-06
3-Jul-06
4-Jul-06
5-Jul-06
6-Jul-06
7-Jul-06
10-Jul-06
11-Jul-06
12-Jul-06
13-Jul-06
14-Jul-06
17-Jul-06
18-Jul-06
19-Jul-06
20-Jul-06
21-Jul-06

Close
361.1
351.5
359.5
356.35
357.6
349.35
356.35
354.4
346.85
349.45
350.15
347.1
343.9
335.3
320.25
324.2
325.95
349.5
353.75

Avg
36.11
71.26
107.21
142.845
178.605
213.54
249.175
284.615
319.3
354.245
353.15
352.71
351.15
349.045
345.31
342.795
339.755
339.265
339.955

INTERPRETATION:
The moving averge shows the buy signal at point a and a sell signal at point
b.

65

TABLE SHOWING RUN TEST FOR RANBAXY
Date
1-Jun-06
2-Jun-06
5-Jun-06
6-Jun-06
7-Jun-06
8-Jun-06
9-Jun-06
12-Jun-06
13-Jun-06
14-Jun-06
15-Jun-06
16-Jun-06
19-Jun-06
20-Jun-06
21-Jun-06
22-Jun-06
23-Jun-06
25-Jun-06
26-Jun-06

Close
403.45
425.65
411.2
388.05
365.85
343.1
364.15
360.4
356.3
348.85
361.9
369.8
371.15
373.45
375.2
370.9
385.55
391.15
371.25

Sign

Runs

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-

1

2
3

4

5

6

66

Date
27-Jun-06
28-Jun-06
29-Jun-06
30-Jun-06
3-Jul-06
4-Jul-06
5-Jul-06
6-Jul-06
7-Jul-06
10-Jul-06
11-Jul-06
12-Jul-06
13-Jul-06
14-Jul-06
17-Jul-06
18-Jul-06
19-Jul-06
20-Jul-06
21-Jul-06

Close
361.1
351.5
359.5
356.35
357.6
349.35
356.35
354.4
346.85
349.45
350.15
347.1
343.9
335.3
320.25
324.2
325.95
349.5
353.75

Sign
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+

Runs
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

15

16

Run test=Z
Z=(R-X)/σ
R=No. of runs
R=16
n1=18
n2=20
X=(2n1n2)/(n1+n2)+1

σ

2
2
=[2n1n2(2n1n2-n1-n2)]/(n1+n2) (n1+n2-1)

X=(2*18*20)/(18+20)+1
X=19.94736842

σ

2

2
=[2*18*20(2*18*20-18-20)]/(18+20) (18+20-1)

σ =√9.190686531
σ = 3.031614509

Z=(16-19.95)/3.032
Z=-1.3028

INTERPRETATION:
Since the calculated value is -1.30 is less than 1.96 the runs are occurred by
chance.
TABLE SHOWING OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE PRICE OF RANBAXY

67

Date
1-Jun-06
2-Jun-06
5-Jun-06
6-Jun-06
7-Jun-06
8-Jun-06
9-Jun-06
12-Jun-06
13-Jun-06
14-Jun-06
15-Jun-06
16-Jun-06
19-Jun-06
20-Jun-06
21-Jun-06
22-Jun-06
23-Jun-06
25-Jun-06
26-Jun-06

High
420
429.9
432
402.5
392.95
361.8
371.7
386.3
361.6
366.9
364.4
381
375
382
380.5
386.4
389
395.35
396.95

Low
399
396.15
408
384.55
348.5
340
340.15
357.3
352.25
343
352.1
365
355.1
365.05
370
360
366.1
385.55
364.1

Close
403.45
425.65
411.2
388.05
365.85
343.1
364.15
360.4
356.3
348.85
361.9
369.8
371.15
373.45
375.2
370.9
385.55
391.15
371.25

Date
27-Jun-06
28-Jun-06
29-Jun-06
30-Jun-06
3-Jul-06
4-Jul-06
5-Jul-06
6-Jul-06
7-Jul-06
10-Jul-06
11-Jul-06
12-Jul-06
13-Jul-06
14-Jul-06
17-Jul-06
18-Jul-06
19-Jul-06
20-Jul-06
21-Jul-06

68

High
374.95
365.5
362.6
369
362
360.5
359.95
360.5
357
353.8
353.8
351
355.65
343
339.7
330
330
354
355.9

Low
358.5
348.1
354.25
353.25
355.7
348.55
342.35
351.1
345.1
345
347.1
343.3
342
334
317
318
323.05
329.25
346.3

Close
361.1
351.5
359.5
356.35
357.6
349.35
356.35
354.4
346.85
349.45
350.15
347.1
343.9
335.3
320.25
324.2
325.95
349.5
353.75

INTERPRIETATION:
The high low close chart shows the high,low,close price of an equity on
the trading day.
TABLE SHOWING HEAD AND SHOULDER FOR RANBAXY

69

Date
1-Jun-06
2-Jun-06
5-Jun-06
6-Jun-06
7-Jun-06
8-Jun-06
9-Jun-06
12-Jun-06
13-Jun-06
14-Jun-06
15-Jun-06
16-Jun-06
19-Jun-06
20-Jun-06
21-Jun-06
22-Jun-06
23-Jun-06
25-Jun-06
26-Jun-06

Close
403.45
425.65
411.2
388.05
365.85
343.1
364.15
360.4
356.3
348.85
361.9
369.8
371.15
373.45
375.2
370.9
385.55
391.15
371.25

Date
27-Jun-06
28-Jun-06
29-Jun-06
30-Jun-06
3-Jul-06
4-Jul-06
5-Jul-06
6-Jul-06
7-Jul-06
10-Jul-06
11-Jul-06
12-Jul-06
13-Jul-06
14-Jul-06
17-Jul-06
18-Jul-06
19-Jul-06
20-Jul-06
21-Jul-06

70

Close
361.1
351.5
359.5
356.35
357.6
349.35
356.35
354.4
346.85
349.45
350.15
347.1
343.9
335.3
320.25
324.2
325.95
349.5
353.75

INTERPRETATION:
The breaking of the neck line on the right shoulder is a buy signal and the
breaking of the left shoulder is a sell signal.

71

TABLE SHOWING UP TREND FOR RANBAXY

Date
Price
25-Apr-06
481.15
26-Apr-06
477.1
27-Apr-06
470.05
28-Apr-06
471.85
29-Apr-06
472.5
2-May-06
521.8
3-May-06
513.25
4-May-06
508.8
5-May-06
511.45
8-May-06
505.95
9-May-06
505.3

INTERPRETATION:
The up ward breaking of the up ward trend line is a buy signal and down ward
breaking is a sell signal.

72

TABLE SHOWING DOWN TREND FOR RANBAXY
Date
Price
Date
Price
29-Apr-06
472.5 16-May-06
477.55
2-May-06
521.8 17-May-06
489.65
3-May-06
513.25 18-May-06
459.4
4-May-06
508.8 19-May-06
429.7
5-May-06
511.45 22-May-06
428.3
8-May-06
505.95 23-May-06
446.6
9-May-06
505.3 24-May-06
433.7
10-May-06
505.1 25-May-06
419.3
11-May-06
493.5 26-May-06
425.45
12-May-06
491.9 29-May-06
422.2
15-May-06
480.2 30-May-06
419.45

INTERPRETATION:
The up ward breaking of the downward trend line is a buy signal and
down ward breaking is a sell signal.

73

TABLE SHOWING OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE PRICEFOR RANBAXY
Date
Open
High
1-Jun-06
420
420
2-Jun-06
400
429.9
5-Jun-06
429
432
6-Jun-06
400
402.5
7-Jun-06
390
392.95
8-Jun-06
361.1
361.8
9-Jun-06
360
371.7
12-Jun-06
369.35
386.3
13-Jun-06
355
361.6
14-Jun-06
359.45
366.9
15-Jun-06
354.9
364.4
16-Jun-06
365
381
19-Jun-06
371.3
375
20-Jun-06
370
382
21-Jun-06
370
380.5
22-Jun-06
383
386.4
23-Jun-06
372.9
389
INTERPRETATION:
25-Jun-06
390
395.35
26-Jun-06
395
396.95

Low
399
396.15
408
384.55
348.5
340
340.15
357.3
352.25
343
352.1
365
355.1
365.05
370
360
366.1
385.55
364.1

Close
403.45
425.65
411.2
388.05
365.85
343.1
364.15
360.4
356.3
348.85
361.9
369.8
371.15
373.45
375.2
370.9
385.55
391.15
371.25

Date
27-Jun-06
28-Jun-06
29-Jun-06
30-Jun-06
3-Jul-06
4-Jul-06
5-Jul-06
6-Jul-06
7-Jul-06
10-Jul-06
11-Jul-06
12-Jul-06
13-Jul-06
14-Jul-06
17-Jul-06
18-Jul-06
19-Jul-06
20-Jul-06
21-Jul-06

Open
365
358
354.25
365
357
359
347
355.35
356.5
346
349
348.65
348
340
339.7
318
325.2
332
352

High
374.95
365.5
362.6
369
362
360.5
359.95
360.5
357
353.8
353.8
351
355.65
343
339.7
330
330
354
355.9

Low
358.5
348.1
354.25
353.25
355.7
348.55
342.35
351.1
345.1
345
347.1
343.3
342
334
317
318
323.05
329.25
346.3

Close
361.1
351.5
359.5
356.35
357.6
349.35
356.35
354.4
346.85
349.45
350.15
347.1
343.9
335.3
320.25
324.2
325.95
349.5
353.75

The candlestick for shows a white and black candle stick . It means the
opening price and the closing price of the stock is fluctuating.

TABLE SHOWING MOVING AVEREGE FOR ICICI BANK

Date

Close

AVG

Date

Close

AVG

1-Jun-06 534.3

27-Jun-06 498.6

49.86

2-Jun-06 551.95

28-Jun-06 488.9

98.75

5-Jun-06 538.1

29-Jun-06 479.05

146.655

6-Jun-06

542.7

30-Jun-06

487.9

195.445

7-Jun-06

533.25

3-Jul-06

489.1

244.355

8-Jun-06

498.85

4-Jul-06

490.35

293.39

74

9-Jun-06

500.35

5-Jul-06

499.9

343.38

12-Jun-06

474.2

6-Jul-06

485.55

391.935

13-Jun-06
14-Jun-06
15-Jun-06
16-Jun-06
19-Jun-06
20-Jun-06
21-Jun-06
22-Jun-06
23-Jun-06
25-Jun-06
26-Jun-06

459.65
451.2
482.55
506.7
501
490.45
494.4
512.25
508.05
507.2
490.75

7-Jul-06
10-Jul-06
11-Jul-06
12-Jul-06
13-Jul-06
14-Jul-06
17-Jul-06
18-Jul-06
19-Jul-06
20-Jul-06
21-Jul-06

498.95
493
487.95
488.3
495.75
485.9
477.25
472.6
467.75
492.05
484.75

441.83
491.13
490.065
490.005
491.675
491.475
490.29
488.515
485.3
485.95
484.53

508.455
503.28
498.755
495.045
489.82
485.935
487.275
488.045
491.345
494.455

75

INTERPRETATION:
The moving average shows the buy signal at point a and sell signal at point b.

TABLE SHOWING RUN TEST FOR ICICI
Date
1-Jun-06
2-Jun-06

Close
534.3
551.95

Sign

Run

+

1

Date
27-Jun-06
28-Jun-06

76

Close
498.6
488.9

Sign
+
-

Run
10

5-Jun-06
6-Jun-06
7-Jun-06
8-Jun-06
9-Jun-06
12-Jun-06
13-Jun-06
14-Jun-06
15-Jun-06
16-Jun-06
19-Jun-06
20-Jun-06
21-Jun-06
22-Jun-06
23-Jun-06
25-Jun-06
26-Jun-06

538.1
542.7
533.25
498.85
500.35
474.2
459.65
451.2
482.55
506.7
501
490.45
494.4
512.25
508.05
507.2
490.75

+
+
+
+
+
+
-

2
3
3
4

5
6
7
8

9

29-Jun-06
30-Jun-06
3-Jul-06
4-Jul-06
5-Jul-06
6-Jul-06
7-Jul-06
10-Jul-06
11-Jul-06
12-Jul-06
13-Jul-06
14-Jul-06
17-Jul-06
18-Jul-06
19-Jul-06
20-Jul-06
21-Jul-06

Run test=Z
Z=(R-X)/σ
R=No. of runs
R=19
n1=15
n2=23
X=(2n1n2)/(n1+n2)+1

σ

2

σ

2

2
=[2n1n2(2n1n2-n1-n2)]/(n1+n2) (n1+n2-1)

X=(2*19*19)/(19+19)+1
X=19.16
2
=[2*19*19(2*19*19-19-19)]/(19+19) (19+19-1)

σ =√8.4203
σ = 2 . 9 0 18

Z=(19-19.96)/2.9018
Z=-0.0207

77

479.05
487.9
489.1
490.35
499.9
485.55
498.95
493
487.95
488.3
495.75
485.9
477.25
472.6
467.75
492.05
484.75

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-

11

12
13
14

15
16

17
18
19

INTERPRETATION:
Since the calculated value is -0.55 is less than 1.96 the runs are occurred by
chance.

TABLE SHOWING HIGH LOW CLOSE PRICE FOR ICICI
Date
1-Jun06
2-Jun06
5-Jun06
6-Jun06
7-Jun06
7-Jun06
8-Jun06
9-Jun06
9-Jun06
12-Jun06
13-Jun06
14-Jun06
15-Jun06
16-Jun06
19-Jun06
20-Jun06
21-Jun06
22-Jun06
23-Jun06
25-Jun06
26-Jun-

High

Low

Close

551

531.15

534.3

554

530

551.95

557

530

538.1

553.8

511.65

542.7

Date
28-Jun06
28-Jun06
29-Jun06
30-Jun06

543.7

524

533.25

544

544

531.55

High

Low

Close

506.05

485

488.9

498

498

498

502

465.7

479.05

505

475

487.9

3-Jul-06

518.35

485

489.1

544

4-Jul-06

499

488.05

490.35

490.25

498.85

5-Jul-06

503.7

488

499.9

511

479

500.35

5-Jul-06

498

498

498

485

485

485

6-Jul-06

495

482

485.55

505

465

474.2

504

477

498.95

465.9

435

459.65

498

487

493

480

441.1

451.2

495

485

487.95

486.65

460.9

482.55

496

464.95

488.3

524.9

490

506.7

498

482.2

495.75

509.7

493

501

492

472.5

485.9

494.7

481.1

490.45

500

475.2

477.25

499.9

488.25

494.4

478

467.45

472.6

521.5

499.9

512.25

481.9

465.1

467.75

509.8

488

508.05

494.9

477.2

492.05

514
513

505
486.55

507.2
490.75

7-Jul-06
10-Jul06
11-Jul06
12-Jul06
13-Jul06
14-Jul06
17-Jul06
18-Jul06
19-Jul06
20-Jul06
20-Jul06
21-Jul-

505
491.4

502
478.1

505
484.75

78

06

06

HIGH LOW CLOSE CHART FOR ICICI
600
550
High

E
C
I 500
R
P

Low
Close

450
400

DAT E

INTERPRIETATION:
The high low close chart shows the high,low,close price of an equity on
the trading day.

79

TABLE SHOWING HEAD AND SHOULDER FOR ICICI

Date
Price
Date
Price
Date
Price
19-Aug-05
498.2 16-Sep-05
546.15 14-Oct-05
506.25
22-Aug-05
491.55 19-Sep-05
555.4 17-Oct-05
500.35
23-Aug-05
480.45 20-Sep-05
582.3 18-Oct-05
496.65
24-Aug-05
488.25 21-Sep-05
576.5 19-Oct-05
497.6
25-Aug-05
484.5 22-Sep-05
573.15 20-Oct-05
496.9
26-Aug-05
481.6 23-Sep-05
574.55 21-Oct-05
506.55
29-Aug-05
467.95 26-Sep-05
575.85 24-Oct-05
497.6
30-Aug-05
477.1 27-Sep-05
590.35 25-Oct-05
503.95
31-Aug-05
481.8 28-Sep-05
599.4 26-Oct-05
510.8
1-Sep-05
483.85 29-Sep-05
598.95 27-Oct-05
479.9
2-Sep-05
481.5 30-Sep-05
601.7 28-Oct-05
485.5
5-Sep-05
484.5 3-Oct-05
593.4 31-Oct-05
498.6
6-Sep-05
488 4-Oct-05
590.35 1-Nov-05
498.65
8-Sep-05
505.25 5-Oct-05
562.1 2-Nov-05
499.45
9-Sep-05
513.55 6-Oct-05
534.5 7-Nov-05
499.55
12-Sep-05
516.45 7-Oct-05
529.95 8-Nov-05
504.7
13-Sep-05
518.5 10-Oct-05
531.4 9-Nov-05
505.5
14-Sep-05
527.25 11-Oct-05
538.55 10-Nov-05
503.65
15-Sep-05
533.15 13-Oct-05
525.65 11-Nov-05
515.1

80

INTERPRETATION:
The breaking of the neck line on the right shoulder is a buy signal and the
breaking of the left shoulder is a sell signal.

81

TABLE SHOWING UP TREND FOR ICICI
Date
Price
Date
Price
1-Sep-05
481.2 20-Sep-05
542.15
2-Sep-05
478.5 21-Sep-05
552
5-Sep-05
481.35 22-Sep-05
563.5
6-Sep-05
481.1 23-Sep-05
548.15
8-Sep-05
485 26-Sep-05
573.1
9-Sep-05
497.1 27-Sep-05
555.55
12-Sep-05
509 28-Sep-05
590.1
13-Sep-05
506.6 29-Sep-05
587
14-Sep-05
512.1 30-Sep-05
590.5
15-Sep-05
525 3-Oct-05
587.65
16-Sep-05
527 4-Oct-05
582
19-Sep-05
541 5-Oct-05
558.5

82

INTERPRETATION:
The up ward breaking of the up ward trend line is a buy signal and down ward
breaking is a sell signal.
TABLE SHOWING DOWN TREND FOR ICICI

Date
Price
Date
Price
2-May-06
621.95 21-May-06
568.9
3-May-06
649.1 22-May-06
558.95
4-May-06
659.9 23-May-06
563.75
5-May-06
638.2 24-May-06
569.3
8-May-06
634.55 25-May-06
569.9
9-May-06
639.15 1-Jun-06
537.5
10-May-06
660.75 2-Jun-06
534.3
11-May-06
662.55 5-Jun-06
551.95
12-May-06
636.05 6-Jun-06
538.1
13-May-06
619.3 7-Jun-06
542.7
14-May-06
618.6 8-Jun-06
533.25
15-May-06
626.05 9-Jun-06
498.85
16-May-06
593.75 12-Jun-06
500.35
17-May-06
555.45 13-Jun-06
474.2
18-May-06
553.15 14-Jun-06
459.65
19-May-06
577.35 15-Jun-06
451.2

83

INTERPRETATION:
The up ward breaking of the downward trend line is a buy signal and
down ward breaking is a sell signal.

TABLE SHOWING OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE PRICE FOR ICICI
Date
Open
High
Low
Close
Date
Open
High
Low
Close
1-Jun-06
542
551
531.15
534.3 25-Jun-06
514
514
505
507.2
2-Jun-06
532
554
530
551.95 26-Jun-06
507
513
486.55
490.75
5-Jun-06
553
557
530
538.1 27-Jun-06
500
505.85
481
498.6
6-Jun-06
532
553.8
511.65
542.7 28-Jun-06
497
506.05
485
488.9
7-Jun-06
524.1
543.7
524
533.25 28-Jun-06
498
498
498
498
7-Jun-06
544
544
544
544 29-Jun-06
493
502
465.7
479.05
8-Jun-06
531.55
531.55
490.25
498.85 30-Jun-06
494.4
505
475
487.9
9-Jun-06
496
511
479
500.35 3-Jul-06
499
518.35
485
489.1
9-Jun-06
485
485
485
485 4-Jul-06
495.4
499
488.05
490.35
12-Jun-06
502
505
465
474.2 5-Jul-06
492
503.7
488
499.9
13-Jun-06
465
465.9
435
459.65 5-Jul-06
498
498
498
498
14-Jun-06
465
480
441.1
451.2 6-Jul-06
494
495
482
485.55
15-Jun-06
464.05
486.65
460.9
482.55 7-Jul-06
491.2
504
477
498.95
16-Jun-06
490
524.9
490
506.7 10-Jul-06
496
498
487
493
19-Jun-06
498
509.7
493
501 11-Jul-06
490.5
495
485
487.95
20-Jun-06
493
494.7
481.1
490.45 12-Jul-06
485
496
464.95
488.3
21-Jun-06
494.7
499.9
488.25
494.4 13-Jul-06
488
498
482.2
495.75
22-Jun-06
499.9
521.5
499.9
512.25 14-Jul-06
482.2
492
472.5
485.9
23-Jun-06
509
509.8
488
508.05 17-Jul-06
500
500
475.2
477.25

84

25-Jun-06
26-Jun-06
27-Jun-06
28-Jun-06
28-Jun-06

514
507
500
497
498

514
513
505.85
506.05
498

505
486.55
481
485
498

507.2
490.75
498.6
488.9
498

85

18-Jul-06
19-Jul-06
20-Jul-06
20-Jul-06
21-Jul-06

477
476.1
477.2
502
491.4

478
481.9
494.9
505
491.4

467.45
465.1
477.2
502
478.1

472.6
467.75
492.05
505
484.75

INTERPRETATION:
The candlestick for shows a black candle stick . It means the opening
price of the stock is less than the previous closing price.

TABLE SHOWING MOVING AVERAGE FOR HDFC
Date

Close

avg

Date

86

Close

avg

1-Jun-06
2-Jun-06
5-Jun-06
6-Jun-06
7-Jun-06
8-Jun-06
9-Jun-06
12-Jun-06
13-Jun-06
14-Jun-06
15-Jun-06
16-Jun-06
19-Jun-06
20-Jun-06
21-Jun-06
22-Jun-06
23-Jun-06
25-Jun-06
26-Jun-06

738.65
765.05
739.4
722.6
720.75
692.65
712.7
692.25
651.65
638.95
697.7
734.5
736.3
708.95
709.05
730.95
749.4
741.45
761.6

707.465
703.37
700.315
700.005
698.64
697.47
701.3
704.97
709.89
720.885

27-Jun-06
28-Jun-06
29-Jun-06
30-Jun-06
3-Jul-06
4-Jul-06
5-Jul-06
6-Jul-06
7-Jul-06
10-Jul-06
11-Jul-06
12-Jul-06
13-Jul-06
14-Jul-06
17-Jul-06
18-Jul-06
19-Jul-06
20-Jul-06
21-Jul-06

741.05
726.65
749.35
795.95
778.5
787.25
807.4
800
779.3
778.6
761.55
761.2
746.35
729.3
707.45
710.25
697.2
726.45
709.85

74.105
146.77
221.705
301.3
379.15
457.875
538.615
618.615
696.545
774.405
776.455
779.91
779.61
772.945
765.84
758.14
747.12
739.765
732.82

INTERPRETATION:
The moving averge for

shows that it has buy signal at a point a and a sell

signal at point b.

87

TABLE SHOWING RUN TEST FOR HDFC
Date

Close

1-Jun-06
2-Jun-06
5-Jun-06
6-Jun-06
7-Jun-06
8-Jun-06
9-Jun-06
12-Jun-06
13-Jun-06
14-Jun-06
15-Jun-06
16-Jun-06
19-Jun-06
20-Jun-06
21-Jun-06
22-Jun-06
23-Jun-06
25-Jun-06
26-Jun-06

Sign

738.65
765.05
739.4
722.6
720.75
692.65
712.7
692.25
651.65
638.95
697.7
734.5
736.3
708.95
709.05
730.95
749.4
741.45
761.6

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+

Runs

1

2
3

4

5
6

Run test=Z
Z=(R-X)/σ
R=No. of runs
R=18
n1=15
n2=23
X=(2n1n2)/(n1+n2)+1

σ

2
2
=[2n1n2(2n1n2-n1-n2)]/(n1+n2) (n1+n2-1)

X=(2*15*23)/(15+23)+1
X=19.1579

σ

2

2
=[2*15*23(2*15*23-15-23)]/(15+23) (15+23-1)

σ =√8.4203
σ = 2 .9018
Z=(18-19.1579)/2.9018
Z=-0.3990

88

Date
27-Jun-06
28-Jun-06
29-Jun-06
30-Jun-06
3-Jul-06
4-Jul-06
5-Jul-06
6-Jul-06
7-Jul-06
10-Jul-06
11-Jul-06
12-Jul-06
13-Jul-06
14-Jul-06
17-Jul-06
18-Jul-06
7 19-Jul-06
8 20-Jul-06
9 21-Jul-06

Close
741.05
726.65
749.35
795.95
778.5
787.25
807.4
800
779.3
778.6
761.55
761.2
746.35
729.3
707.45
710.25
697.2
726.45
709.85

Sign
+
+
+
+
+
+
-

Runs

10
11
12
12

14
15
16
17
18

INTERPRETATION:
Since the calculated value is -0.55 is less than 1.96 the runs are occurred by
chance.

TABLE SHOWING HIGH LOW OPEN CLOSE PRICE FOR HDFC
Date
1-Jun-06
2-Jun-06
5-Jun-06
6-Jun-06
7-Jun-06
8-Jun-06
9-Jun-06
12-Jun-06
13-Jun-06
14-Jun-06
15-Jun-06
16-Jun-06
19-Jun-06
20-Jun-06

Open
760
740
763
735
721.7
711
687
717.9
671
648
644
710
704.5
720

High
772.5
775
774
735
729.7
725
720
727.85
677.85
672.8
724.8
766.5
740.1
727

Low
733
734
730.1
715.25
710
640
661.25
665.15
640
615.2
644
710
704.5
700.25

Close
738.65
765.05
739.4
722.6
720.75
692.65
712.7
692.25
651.65
638.95
697.7
734.5
736.3
708.95

89

Date
27-Jun-06
28-Jun-06
29-Jun-06
30-Jun-06
3-Jul-06
4-Jul-06
5-Jul-06
6-Jul-06
7-Jul-06
10-Jul-06
11-Jul-06
12-Jul-06
13-Jul-06
14-Jul-06

Open
750
775
740
755.1
800
780
780
800.5
802
771.1
775.05
680
756
746

High
759.9
775
761
814.8
800
789.95
816
804.95
809.95
780
775.05
772
765
746

Low
731
722.05
731.15
755.1
771
780
778.05
787
751
763
755.05
680
742.65
715.6

Close
741.05
726.65
749.35
795.95
778.5
787.25
807.4
800
779.3
778.6
761.55
761.2
746.35
729.3

21-Jun-06
22-Jun-06
23-Jun-06
25-Jun-06
26-Jun-06

715
744.8
704.8
762
725.25

717.1
760
750.5
762
772

702
725
702.6
734.5
725.25

709.05
730.95
749.4
741.45
761.6

17-Jul-06
18-Jul-06
19-Jul-06
20-Jul-06
21-Jul-06

730
705
712
711
715

730
714
719
740
727

702.25
701
692.1
711
705

707.45
710.25
697.2
726.45
709.85

INTERPRIETATION:
The high low close chart shows the high,low,close price of an equity on
the trading day.
TABLE SHOWING HEAD AND SHOULDER FOR HDFC
Date
3-Apr-06
4-Apr-06
5-Apr-06
7-Apr-06
10-Apr-06
12-Apr-06
13-Apr-06
17-Apr-06
18-Apr-06

Price

Date

773.85
832.85
841
817.7
825.3
809
803.95
814.6
834.45

19-Apr-06
20-Apr-06
21-Apr-06
24-Apr-06
25-Apr-06
26-Apr-06
27-Apr-06
28-Apr-06
29-Apr-06

90

Price
848.5
850
848.65
822.4
824.65
837.05
824.2
817.35
825.8

INTERPRETATION:
The breaking of the neck line on the right shoulder is a buy signal and the
breaking of the left shoulder is a sell signal.

TABLE SHOWING UP TREND FOR HDFC
Date

Price

3-Apr-06
4-Apr-06
5-Apr-06
7-Apr-06
10-Apr-06
12-Apr-06
13-Apr-06
17-Apr-06
18-Apr-06
19-Apr-06
20-Apr-06
21-Apr-06
24-Apr-06
25-Apr-06
26-Apr-06

Date

773.85
832.85
841
817.7
825.3
809
803.95
814.6
834.45
848.5
850
848.65
822.4
824.65
837.05

91

Price

29-Apr-06
2-May-06
3-May-06
4-May-06
5-May-06
8-May-06
9-May-06
10-May-06
11-May-06
12-May-06
13-May-06
14-May-06
15-May-06
16-May-06
17-May-06

825.8
851.3
863.2
883.75
878.65
876.1
852.65
871.05
870.5
875.3
843.55
847.7
844.3
819.65
809.65

27-Apr-06
28-Apr-06

824.2 18-May-06
817.35 19-May-06

786.95
781.2

INTERPRETATION:
The up ward breaking of the up ward trend line is a buy signal and down ward
breaking is a sell signal.
TABLE SHOWING DOWN TREND FOR HDFC
Date
27-Sep-05
28-Sep-05
29-Sep-05
30-Sep-05
3-Oct-05
4-Oct-05
5-Oct-05
6-Oct-05
7-Oct-05
10-Oct-05
11-Oct-05
13-Oct-05
14-Oct-05

Price
682.25
696
696
685.15
676.65
709.9
702.65
682.05
678.55
688.25
689.8
677.9
659.4

92

Date
17-Oct-05
18-Oct-05
19-Oct-05
20-Oct-05
21-Oct-05
24-Oct-05
25-Oct-05
26-Oct-05
27-Oct-05
28-Oct-05
31-Oct-05
1-Nov-05
2-Nov-05

Price
654.4
657.75
647.65
643.9
647.65
635.5
630.65
630.1
624.6
610.95
606.65
629.45
620.7

INTERPRETATION:
The up ward breaking of the downward trend line is a buy signal and
down ward breaking is a sell signal.
TABLE SHOWING OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE PRICE FOR HDFC
Date
1-Jun-06
2-Jun-06
5-Jun-06
6-Jun-06
7-Jun-06
8-Jun-06
9-Jun-06
12-Jun-06
13-Jun-06
14-Jun-06
15-Jun-06
16-Jun-06
19-Jun-06
20-Jun-06
21-Jun-06
22-Jun-06

Open
760
740
763
735
721.7
711
687
717.9
671
648
644
710
704.5
720
715
744.8

High
772.5
775
774
735
729.7
725
720
727.85
677.85
672.8
724.8
766.5
740.1
727
717.1
760

Low
733
734
730.1
715.25
710
640
661.25
665.15
640
615.2
644
710
704.5
700.25
702
725

Close
738.65
765.05
739.4
722.6
720.75
692.65
712.7
692.25
651.65
638.95
697.7
734.5
736.3
708.95
709.05
730.95

93

Date
27-Jun-06
28-Jun-06
29-Jun-06
30-Jun-06
3-Jul-06
4-Jul-06
5-Jul-06
6-Jul-06
7-Jul-06
10-Jul-06
11-Jul-06
12-Jul-06
13-Jul-06
14-Jul-06
17-Jul-06
18-Jul-06

Open
750
775
740
755.1
800
780
780
800.5
802
771.1
775.05
680
756
746
730
705

High
759.9
775
761
814.8
800
789.95
816
804.95
809.95
780
775.05
772
765
746
730
714

Low
731
722.05
731.15
755.1
771
780
778.05
787
751
763
755.05
680
742.65
715.6
702.25
701

Close
741.05
726.65
749.35
795.95
778.5
787.25
807.4
800
779.3
778.6
761.55
761.2
746.35
729.3
707.45
710.25

23-Jun-06
25-Jun-06
26-Jun-06

704.8
762
725.25

750.5
762
772

702.6
734.5
725.25

749.4 19-Jul-06
741.45 20-Jul-06
761.6 21-Jul-06

94

712
711
715

719
740
727

692.1
711
705

697.2
726.45
709.85

INTERPRETATION:
The candlestick for shows a white and black candle stick . It means
the opening price and the closing price of the stock is fluctuating.

CHAPTER:4-FINDINGS& SUGGESTIONS
FINDINGS
 The moving average of Infosys from the period 1st june 06 to 20st july
had shown the buy signal at 16th june and sell signal at 13 july.
 The run test for the Infosys shows that the runs are occurred by
chance.

95

 The high low close price for the Infosys is pointed through the high low
close chart.
 The sell and buy signal for the Infosys had shown through head and
shoulders.
 The up trend line for the Infosys shows an upward trend from 03/01/06
to 04/22/06.
 An Infosys shows a down ward trend from 06/02/2006 to 06/08/06 for
the study period.
 The candle sticks for the Infosys shows both the white, black and doby
candlesticks.
 The moving average for Wipro shows buy signal on 06/18/06 and a sell
signal at 06/25/06.
 The up trend line for the Wipro shows an upward trend from 04/15/06
to 06/24/06.
 A Wipro shows a down ward trend from 05/25/2006 to 06/12/06 for the
study period.
 The buy and sell signal for the Glaxo for the study period was shown
the moving average diagram.
 From the period 08/12/06 to 02/05/06 had shown an up trend for
Glaxo.
 A Glaxo shows a down ward trend from 05/03/2006 to 06/07/06 for the
study period.
 The moving average of Ranbaxy from the period 1st june 06 to 20st july
had shown the buy signal at 06/05/06 and sell signal at 06/25/06.
 From the period 04/26/06 to 05/21/06 had shown an up trend for
Ranbaxy.
96

 A Ranbaxy shows a down ward trend from 04/29/2006 to 05/31/06 for
the study period.
 The moving average of ICICI from the period 1st june 06 to 20st july had
shown the buy signal at 06/13/06 and sell signal at 06/22/06.
 The up trend line for the ICICI shows an upward trend from 09/11/06 to
10/06/06.
 An ICICI shows a down ward trend from 05/05/06 to 06/16/06 for the
study period.
 The moving average for HDFC shows buy signal on 06/17/06 and a
sell signal at 06/29/06.
 The up trend line for the HDFC shows an upward trend from 03/22/06
to 05/09/06.
 An HDFC shows a down ward trend from 09/13/06 to 10/28/06 for the
study period.

SUGGESTIONS

 When the moving average shows a flattening trend and the stock price
line falls through the moving average line the stock brokers or the

97

share holders should see that their should be sold off since it shows a
declining trend.
 In order to get an effective analysis it is better to prepare 200,400 days
moving average.
 If the up ward trend line is penetrating it better to sell the shares and if
the down ward trend line is penetrating it better to buy the shares.
 The breaking of the neckline on a decline from the right shoulder final
confirmation and completes head and shoulders top formation. This is,
there fore, a signal to sell short.

98

CONCLUSION

The equity share movements of the companies from the selected
sectors have been analysed hereby using the various tools of technical
analysis. Technical analysis has been very helpful in identifying and getting a
clear picture of the company’s equity price movements. It has also helped in
detecting the shift in demand and supply and as provided clues to future price
movements. Tools of technical analysis helped in identifying the trends of
price movements, which are helpful in aids in investment decision making.

CHAPTER:5-BIBILOGRAPHY
SECURITY ANALYSIS AND
PORTFOLIO MANAGENENT

:

PANDIAN PUNITHAVATHY
TIMING THE MAREKET”THE BIBLE FOR

99

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS “

: ARNOLD MOURTIS,RAHFELDTT DAN

SECURITY ANALYSIS AND
PORTFOLIO MANAGENENT

:FISHER E DONALD,JORDAN J

RONALD
www.nseindia.com
www.damodaran.com
business line
economic lines

100

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