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Main Topics

1. Short Introduction, Reliability Parameters: Failure Rate, Failure

Probability, etc.

2. Some Important Reliability Distributions

3. Component Reliability

4. Introduction, Key Terms, Framing the Problem

5. System Reability I: Reliability Block Diagram, Structure Analysis (Fault

Trees), State Model.

6. System Reability II: State Analysis (Markovian chains)

7. System Reability III: Dependent Failure Analysis

8. Static and Dynamic Redundancy

9. Advanced Methods for Systems Modeling and Simulation (Petri Nets,

network theory, object-oriented modeling)

10. Software Reliability, Fault Tolerance

11. Human Reliability Analysis

12. Case study: Building a Reliable System

HS 10 / ETH Zürich

Reliability of technical Systems

2

HS 10 / ETH Zürich

Reliability of technical Systems

3

**• The calculation of the system reliability is of particular
**

importance when it cannot be measured directly – for

example, when a new system has to be designed from

existing components.

• It must be noticed that the presented methods only apply if the

failures of the components are stochastically independent. In

reality, it is approximately the case if the main fault

mechanisms are independent from each other. However,

when faults propagate from a component to another one, the

independence assumption is strongly violated.

HS 10 / ETH Zürich

Reliability of technical Systems

4

HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 5 .

• Other nodes represent the binary random variable of a component (stating whether "faultless" or "faulty"). HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 6 . • Additional virtual nodes H help to simplify the representation. Notice that multiple nodes are allowed for a single component. exactly one terminal node A.Reliability Block Diagram Directed graph: • Exactly one starting node E. Semantics: The system is faultless if and only if there exists a path from E to A solely via faultless components.

A reliability diagram illustrates a system function. because special monotony conditions must be satisfied (see next slide). nearly all reasonable systems can be modeled by a system function without negation. it must be put in a corresponding number of parallel paths of the reliability diagram. In the reliability diagram there is no means to express negation. In principle. Some properties of the modeling by a reliability diagram are: • Arranging several components along a path means connecting them by an "and" operation • Arranging several components in parallel paths represents an "or" operation. we can learn from the motivation of the monotony conditions. • If a component appears in several expressions of the Boolean system function. its modeling power is somewhat smaller than the Boolean representation of the system function. HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 7 . However.

HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 8 .

which can be interpreted in various ways: • The components form static redundancy. all components are connected by an "and" operation. HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 9 . • The components form dynamic redundancy. In the example the "or" operator between components K2 and K3 indicated redundancy. All components must be faultless to form a faultless system. where K2 is the primary and K3 is the spare component.In the system function of a non-redundant system.

Rules for Boolean Functions : φ(x) If we use this method to calculate the system function probability. Thereby the following rules have to be obeyed: HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 10 . then the probability of "or"-connected "and" expressions must be determined.

this rule must be applied for the “or “ connection of the cut expression. The rule for the "or" operation can cause a very high computation overhead. two expressions may be not independent if they contain the same variable. the following calculation for φ(X) = 0. It must be applied accordingly there. In this method.9 is not valid: The rule for the "and" operation is also part of the rule for the "or" operation. HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 11 . Therefore. As an example.The rules for the "and" operations only apply in case of stochastically independence.

HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 12 .

HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 13 .

.…. For convenience the completely faultless case C = (true. For a system consisting of n components there are exactly 2n fault cases. true) is also called a fault case in this context.A fault case is a combination of the possible values of the binary random variables indicating which components are faultless and which are not. Two different fault cases cannot occur at a time. HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 14 . It should be noticed that two fault cases are always disjoint.

HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 15 .

HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 16 .

_ HS 10 / ETH Zürich _ Reliability of technical Systems 17 .

k j =1 j j • Multiplication theorem for probabilities ( ) Pr ( Θ j ∩ X= ) Pr ( Θ j ) ⋅ Pr X Θ j= Pr ( X ) ⋅ Pr ( Θ j X ) . Pr(X): Probability of the event X („impact“) Pr(Θi): Probability of the „cause“ j Pr(XIΘi): probability of the impact X assuming cause Θi. Pr(ΘiIX): according to Pr(XIΘi) HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 18 .Basic equations • Theorem of the total likelihood Pr (= X) ∑ Pr ( Θ ) ⋅ Pr ( X Θ ) .

Recursive Binary Distinction of Fault Cases: Example K2 E K1 A K3 HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 19 .

Recursive Binary Distinction of Fault Cases: Split for K2 K2 E K1 A K3 _ _ ϕ(S)=ϕ(K2)*ϕ(K1∧ (K2∨K3)| K2) + ϕ(K2)* ϕ(K1∧ (K2∨K3)| K2) HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 20 .

Recursive Binary Distinction of Fault Cases K2 is faultless E K1 A K3 ϕ(K2)*ϕ(K1∧ (K2∨K3)| K2) = ϕ(K2)* ϕ(K1∧ (1 ∨ K3)) = ϕ(K2)*ϕ(K1) HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 21 .

ϕ(K2))* ϕ(K1 ∧ K3) HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 22 .ϕ(K2))* ϕ(K1 ∧ (0 ∨ K3))= (1.Recursive Binary Distinction of Fault Cases K2 is faulty E K1 A K3 _ _ ϕ(K2)* ϕ(K1 ∧ (K2 ∨ K3)| K2) = (1.

HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 23 .

RD/RBD Minimal Cut Sets Minimal Path Sets _ Variable: x Parameters: Failure probabilities Variable: x Parameters: Survival probabilities. availabilities HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 24 .Negative Logic Question: When is system Positive Logic Question: When is system faulty? Methodes: Fault tree faultless? Methodes: CDFC. RBDFC.

Method of Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 25 .

HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 26 .

HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 27 .

HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 28 .

hence. After ten minutes (set by a timer). HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 29 . The switch is first closed and then the contact will be closed to allow the tank to be filled. an alarm goes off and the operator opened the switch to prevent a tank failure due to overfilling. If this mechanism fails. a complete cycle takes 1 hour.Example from industry: pumping system In a pumping system. the contact will be opened to allow the tank to be emptied. a tank is filled in 10 minutes and emptied in 50 minutes.

.Example from industry: pumping system Boolean Function Failure: y = ( x1 ∨ x2 ∨ x3 ) ∧ ( x4 ∨ x5 ) ∨ ( x6 ∨ x7 ) multiply y = x1x4 ∨ x1x5 ∨ x2 x4 ∨ x2 x5 ∨ x3 x4 ∨ x3 x5 ∨ x6 ∨ x7 This is a serial-parallel and serial system: Reliability Block Diagram 1 E 1 A 6 4 7 5 Computation: 6 FSP =− 1 ∏ (1− q1i q2i ) = 1− (1 − q1q4 )(1 − q1q5 ) ..0227 ⋅ 10−4 HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 30 .etc i =1 Fs = 1 − (1 − q6 )(1 − q7 ) F =FSP + Fs =. =1....

HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 31 .

Negative Logic Positive Logic Fault tree Reliability Block Diagram Question: When is system Question: When is system faulty? faultless? _ S K2 E _ _ _ K1 K2 K3 _ _ _ K1 A K3 _ S = K1 ∨ (K2 ∧ K3) HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 32 .

HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 33 .

HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 34 .

HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 35 .

HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 36 .

Negative Logic HS 10 / ETH Zürich Positive Logic Reliability of technical Systems 37 .

HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 38 .

HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 39 .pi is a probability of a state i.

conditional state of system.Application of the State Modell: Unrepairable System Z1 (1.1) λ Z2 (0. Λ . p 2 (t ) ) = ( p1 (t ). S. p2 (t ) ) ⋅ 0 0 To be solved unter conditions: p1(t)+p2(t)=1 and p1(0)=1 Solution (via Laplace transformation if necessary): HS 10 / ETH Zürich p1 (t ) = e − λ ⋅t and p2 (t ) = 1 − e − λ ⋅t Reliability of technical Systems 40 .S). where Ki state of component.failure rate − λ λ Homogenous system of equalities: ( p 1 (t ).0) Zi(Ki.

p 2 (t ) ) = ( p1 (t ). where Ki state of component.conditional state of system. S.Application of the State Modell: Repairable System λ Z1 (1.1) Z2 (0. Λ . μ – repair rate − λ Homogenous system of equalities: ( p 1 (t ). p2 (t ) ) ⋅ µ λ −µ To be solved unter conditions: p1(t)+p2(t)=1 and p1(0)=1 Solution: HS 10 / ETH Zürich p1 (t ) = µ λ+µ + λ λ+µ ⋅ e −( λ + µ )⋅t Reliability of technical Systems It is the time dependent Availability V(t)! 41 .S).failure rate.0) μ Zi(Ki.

HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 42 .

Application of the State Modell: Example System K2 E K1 A K3 Number of states 23=8 HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 43 .

1.1.0) Stationary availability is calculated by V=p1+p3+p4 HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 44 .1) Z5 (0.1.0) Z6 (1.1.Z2 (0.0.0) λ2 Z7 (0.1.1.0.0.1.1) λ3 λ2 Z4 (1.0) λ1 λ3 λ1 Z8 (0.0.0) λ1 Z1 (1.0.1) Application of the State Modell: Example System λ2 λ3 λ1 Z3 (1.0.0.0.1.

HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 45 .

HS 10 / ETH Zürich Reliability of technical Systems 46 .

the complementis p2 = Reliability of technical Systems λ λ+µ 47 .1) Z2 (0.0) μ Z1: λ*p1=μ*p2 Z2: λ*p1=μ*p2 p1+p2=1 Stationary availability (steady-state availability) V is calculated by p1 = HS 10 / ETH Zürich µ λ+µ .Application of the State Modell: Repairable System λ Z1 (1.

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