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# Binomial random variable

## Toss a coin with prob p of Heads n times

X : # Heads in n tosses

X is Bin(n, p)

## An X that counts the number of successes in many

independent bernoulli trials is called a binomial random
variable. The two parameters are
I

n trials

## Sampling with and without replacement

If there is a large dichotomous population and a sample is
drawn from it, and we look at X the number of success in the
sample.
If the sample is drawn without replacement then clearly X is not
binomial. However, if the sample size is small relative to
population size, binomial probabilities provide a good
approximation. In this case, in practice X is modeled as a
binomial.

n
x

px (1 p)nx

P(X = x) =

## E(X ) = np, V (X ) = np(1 p)

p
s.d (X) = (np(1 p)

Binomial table

Problem 4.4

## Use the table to find the following probabilities

1. P( x =2) for n=10, p =.4
2. P(x 5) for n = 15, p = .6
3. P(x > 1) for n = 5, p =.1
4. P(x 10) for n=15, p =.9

tophat 4.54

Problem 4.5

1. n=25, p =.5
2. n=80, p= .2

problem 4.48

## Among guests in a hotel 66% were aware of its Green program

and among those who were aware of the program 72%
participated in it. Let x be the number of guests in a random
sample of 15 who were aware of the Green program and
participated in it.

problem 4.48
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## n identical trials. Although the trials are not exactly

identical, they are close. Taking a sample of size n = 15
from a very large population will result in trials being
essentially identical.

## Two possible outcomes. The hotel guests are either aware

of and participate in the conservation efforts or they do not.
S = hotel guest is aware of and participates in conservation

## P(S) remains the same from trial to trial. If we sample

without replacement, then P(S) will change slightly from
trial to trial. However, the differences are extremely small
and will essentially be 0.

## Trials are independent. Again, although the trials are not

exactly independent, they are very close.

## The random variable x = number of hotel guests who are

aware of and participate in conservation efforts in n =15
trials. Thus, x is very close to being a binomial. We will

problem 4.48

## Among guests in a hotel 66% were aware of its Green program

and among those who were aware of the program 72%
participated in it. Let x be the number of guests in a random
sample of 15 who were aware of the Green program and
participated in it.
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determine p

problem 4.48

## Define the following events: A: hotel guest is aware of

conservation program
B: Hotel guest participates in conservation efforts

## assume p=.4 and find the probability that x is at least 10

from table 1-.966 =0.034

problem 4.58
The engineers forecast that 10% of all Denver bridges will have
ratings of 4 or below
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## Find the probability that in a random sample of 10 bridges

at least 3 will have a ratings below 4

problem 4.58

## Since the probability of seeing at least 3 bridges out of 10 with

ratings of 4 or less is so small, we can conclude that the
forecast of 10% of all major Denver bridges will have ratings of
4 or less in 2020 is too small. There would probably be more
than 10%.

Problem 4.58
You have purchased 5 million switches and your supplier has
guaranteed that there will be no more that .1% defectives. You
randomly sample 500 switches and find 4 defectives. Do you
think the supplier has complied with the guarantee?
Assuming the suppliers claim is true,

= np = 500(.001) = .5

Problem 4.58

## If the suppliers claim is true, we would only expect to find .5

defective switches in a sample of size 500. Therefore, it is not
likely we would find 4. Based on the sample, the guarantee is
probably inaccurate.
z-value of observed result is

4.5
.707

= 4.95

## This is an unusually large z-score.

Poisson
A Poisson random variable takes values x = 0, 1, 2, . . .. It has
one parameter .

## X is a Poisson() variable if, for > 0,

P(X = x) = e

E(X ) =

V (X ) =

x
for x = 0, 1, 2, . . .
x!

Poisson distribution

## Why study Poisson? If X is binomial(n, p) with n large and p

small then with = np,

P(X = x)
= e
x!

0.0

0.0

0.8

40

x
80

0.4

0.8

ppois(x, 50)

0.4

## pbinom(x, 500, p = 0.1)

0
0
40
x

80

Poisson distribution

variable?

## Poisson Distribution Example

Customers arrive at a
rate of 72 per hour.
What is the probability
of 4 customers arriving
in 3 minutes?
1995 Corel Corp.

## Poisson Distribution Solution

72 Per Hr. = 1.2 Per Min. = 3.6 Per 3 Min. Interval

p( x)

x e
x!

3.6
p (4)

e 3.6
.1912
4!
4

## Poisson Probability Table (Portion)

.02
:
3.4
3.6
3.8
:

0
.980
:
.033
.027
.022
:

x
3

:
:
.558 .744
.515 .706
.473 .668
:
:

:
.997
.996
.994
:

Cumulative Probabilities

## p(x 4) p(x 3) = .706 .515 = .191

Problem 4.70

Over the last ten years the average number of bank failures per
year was 45. Assume that X , the number of bank failures per
year follows a Poisson distribution
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## E(X) = 45, s.d(X) =

45 = 6.71

In 2011, 360 banks failed. How far does this value lie
above the mean?

z=

36045
671

= 47

## The experiment consists of randomly drawing n elements

without replacement from a set of N elements, r of which
are Ss (for success) and (N - r) of which are Fs (for failure)

.
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## The hypergeometric random variable x is the number of Ss

in the draw of n elements.

p(x) =

nr
N

2 =

r
x

(Nr
nx

N
n

r (N r )n(N n)
N 2 (N 1)

## Sampling with and without replacement

If there is a large dichotomous population and a sample is
drawn from it, and we look at X the number of success in the
sample.
If the sample is drawn without replacement then X is
Hypergoemetric. However, if the sample size is small relative to
population size, binomial probabilities provide a good
approximation. In this case, in practice X is modeled as a
binomial.

## probability density, mean, s.d.

Normal distribution

interval [0, 1]

## But Probability X falls in an interval is equal to the length of

the interval,and is nonzero.

picture

0.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

## Continuous Probability Density

Function
The graphical form of the probability distribution for a
continuous random variable x is a smooth curve

Density curves
A density curve is a mathematical model of a distribution.
The total area under the curve, by definition, is equal to 1, or 100%.

The area under the curve for a range of values is the probability of all
observations for that range.

## Histogram of a sample with the

smoothed, density curve
describing theoretically the
population.

## Density curves come in any

imaginable shape.

## Some are well known

mathematically and others arent.

## Our interest is in a special type of density called Normal density

or Normal Distribution