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You are on page 1of 38

X : # Heads in n tosses

X is Bin(n, p)

independent bernoulli trials is called a binomial random

variable. The two parameters are

I

n trials

If there is a large dichotomous population and a sample is

drawn from it, and we look at X the number of success in the

sample.

If the sample is drawn without replacement then clearly X is not

binomial. However, if the sample size is small relative to

population size, binomial probabilities provide a good

approximation. In this case, in practice X is modeled as a

binomial.

n

x

px (1 p)nx

P(X = x) =

p

s.d (X) = (np(1 p)

Binomial table

Problem 4.4

1. P( x =2) for n=10, p =.4

2. P(x 5) for n = 15, p = .6

3. P(x > 1) for n = 5, p =.1

4. P(x 10) for n=15, p =.9

tophat 4.54

Problem 4.5

1. n=25, p =.5

2. n=80, p= .2

problem 4.48

and among those who were aware of the program 72%

participated in it. Let x be the number of guests in a random

sample of 15 who were aware of the Green program and

participated in it.

problem 4.48

I

identical, they are close. Taking a sample of size n = 15

from a very large population will result in trials being

essentially identical.

of and participate in the conservation efforts or they do not.

S = hotel guest is aware of and participates in conservation

without replacement, then P(S) will change slightly from

trial to trial. However, the differences are extremely small

and will essentially be 0.

exactly independent, they are very close.

aware of and participate in conservation efforts in n =15

trials. Thus, x is very close to being a binomial. We will

problem 4.48

and among those who were aware of the program 72%

participated in it. Let x be the number of guests in a random

sample of 15 who were aware of the Green program and

participated in it.

I

determine p

problem 4.48

conservation program

B: Hotel guest participates in conservation efforts

from table 1-.966 =0.034

problem 4.58

The engineers forecast that 10% of all Denver bridges will have

ratings of 4 or below

I

at least 3 will have a ratings below 4

problem 4.58

ratings of 4 or less is so small, we can conclude that the

forecast of 10% of all major Denver bridges will have ratings of

4 or less in 2020 is too small. There would probably be more

than 10%.

Problem 4.58

You have purchased 5 million switches and your supplier has

guaranteed that there will be no more that .1% defectives. You

randomly sample 500 switches and find 4 defectives. Do you

think the supplier has complied with the guarantee?

Assuming the suppliers claim is true,

= np = 500(.001) = .5

Problem 4.58

defective switches in a sample of size 500. Therefore, it is not

likely we would find 4. Based on the sample, the guarantee is

probably inaccurate.

z-value of observed result is

4.5

.707

= 4.95

Poisson

A Poisson random variable takes values x = 0, 1, 2, . . .. It has

one parameter .

P(X = x) = e

E(X ) =

V (X ) =

x

for x = 0, 1, 2, . . .

x!

Poisson distribution

small then with = np,

P(X = x)

= e

x!

0.0

0.0

0.8

40

x

80

0.4

0.8

ppois(x, 50)

0.4

0

0

40

x

80

Poisson distribution

variable?

Customers arrive at a

rate of 72 per hour.

What is the probability

of 4 customers arriving

in 3 minutes?

1995 Corel Corp.

72 Per Hr. = 1.2 Per Min. = 3.6 Per 3 Min. Interval

p( x)

x e

x!

3.6

p (4)

e 3.6

.1912

4!

4

.02

:

3.4

3.6

3.8

:

0

.980

:

.033

.027

.022

:

x

3

:

:

.558 .744

.515 .706

.473 .668

:

:

:

.997

.996

.994

:

Cumulative Probabilities

Problem 4.70

Over the last ten years the average number of bank failures per

year was 45. Assume that X , the number of bank failures per

year follows a Poisson distribution

I

45 = 6.71

In 2011, 360 banks failed. How far does this value lie

above the mean?

z=

36045

671

= 47

without replacement from a set of N elements, r of which

are Ss (for success) and (N - r) of which are Fs (for failure)

.

I

in the draw of n elements.

p(x) =

nr

N

2 =

r

x

(Nr

nx

N

n

r (N r )n(N n)

N 2 (N 1)

If there is a large dichotomous population and a sample is

drawn from it, and we look at X the number of success in the

sample.

If the sample is drawn without replacement then X is

Hypergoemetric. However, if the sample size is small relative to

population size, binomial probabilities provide a good

approximation. In this case, in practice X is modeled as a

binomial.

Normal distribution

interval [0, 1]

the interval,and is nonzero.

picture

0.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Function

The graphical form of the probability distribution for a

continuous random variable x is a smooth curve

Density curves

A density curve is a mathematical model of a distribution.

The total area under the curve, by definition, is equal to 1, or 100%.

The area under the curve for a range of values is the probability of all

observations for that range.

smoothed, density curve

describing theoretically the

population.

imaginable shape.

mathematically and others arent.

or Normal Distribution

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