You are on page 1of 150

Post#1

Hi Guys!
In this thread i would share some of my Systems and Strategies and free Resources on Commodities.
Commodities I would request you
all to just co-operate
operate and add to the thread constructively because TIME is precious to each one of us.
Just Keep on tracking it for few months and keep practicing analysis and reading good books and you should be bettering your
skills each day.
Kamlesh
Post#2
PREPARATION before placing the trade on Daily basis:
I already have Weekly charts, Support/Resistance levels memorized on all 4 commodities and know what it is doing.
1. Read Weekly (on Sunday) and Daily TA on the following link.
http://www.oilngold.com/ong-focus/technical/
focus/technical/
2. Check economic
conomic calender here and note the times when important news can affect my market. Also US markets Open times.
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
3. Determine the 'TREND to trade With'
h' on my time frame 5 min.
Dow Theory(HH-HL/LH-LL)/Trendlines/SMA
4. Apply my SYSTEM/Strategies to Crude, Gold, Silver and look for opportunities here.
http://quotes.esignal.com/esignalpro...chart.studies=
5. Now i watch live international charts here.
http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html
6. Now i wait for the opportunity to satisfy me completely to place the Entry order always along with a Stop Loss order. If i am
scalping the breakout etc.
c. i would place a profit booking order too.
Kamlesh
Post#4
OPPORTUNITY TYPE - 01 : Trend Reversal.
Tools:
(a) Trend lines any time frame(TF) >=5 min. Higher the TF better.
(b) Dow Theory: HH-HL => Uptrend, LH-LL
LL => Downtrend established in the same TF.
Read as much as possible on how to draw valid Trendlines/Channels and Practice them. This is the Foundation for
Thinking among traders.
Suggested Book: Edward n Magee's 'Technical Analysis of Stock Trends'

Post#5
In the chart attached (10 min):
Dow Theory LH-LL told me that trend has changed (Self-Sufficient
(
condition for trend reversal).Now I Waited for the market to rise further so
that my Risk-Reward ratio becomes brighter.
My Stop Loss: 2-ticks above LH point.
Entry Point: As close as possible to the down-trendline
trendline (For closer look i entered on 3 min TF).
Profit booking by Parabolic SAR.
Simpler Trading, Happier Trading!

Post#7
Hi Guys!....Plz save your TIME and MONEY on charting from data from MCX as any conclusion about support/resistance,
candlesticks patterns or trendline, etc. would be WRONG. MCX trades for 13.5 hrs whereas international markets trade for 23.5
hrs a day.
Why? Because MCX trading follows international prices from NYMEX, COMEX, LME, etc.
Follow international charts only and don't ever pay a rupee to anybody either for software or data or trading system. That's not
even needed leave being worth it.
For STOCKS best and most accurate charting facility along with all basic TA tools is available on Reuters website(for free).
Suppose you want to analyze SBI click on the link:
http://in.reuters.com/finance/stocks...?symbol=SBI.NS
For COMMODITIES: Suppose you want Silver at your desktop:
http://quotes.esignal.com/esignalpro...chart.studies=
Reuters, eSignal.com, Quote.com all are among the best data vendors in the world. Just their free service is 10-12 min delayed
with real time data. Highest accuracy is what i want, which is here, no doubts.
If you want just 30 seconds delayed data for Crude Oil, Gold, Silver go to this link.
http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html
'Higher the TF better the profitability' so 10-12 min delay doesn't affect my trade plan. So where is the need for paying a single
paisa to any vendor?
For expert technical analysis also on daily basis here are the links:
http://www.reuterstechnicals.com/cat...ls/daily-nifty
http://www.oilngold.com/ong-focus/technical/
Plz don't ask anybody for tips, check out above links and plan your trade and be self-reliant.
Also you may track my thread and start practicing TA, it's all in the books and out of secret boxes. Anyone can read and learn
and trade profitably.
We don't have to discover the Wheel again and again.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#8
For the New traders let me detail my abbreviations.
TF: Time Frame
LH: Lower High
HH: Higher High
LL: Lower Low
HL: Higher Low
LME: London Metal Exchange
COMEX: Commodity Exchange, Inc., USA
NYMEX: NewYork Mercantile Exchange
TA: Technical Analysis.
SL: Stop Loss order
For any other query, post it. Any of the fellow brothers would answer it as soon as possible.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#9
US Markets Open times in IST:
COMEX : 5:50 PM Indian Standard Time (IST)
S&P500: 7:00 PM IST
NYMEX: 8:00 PM IST
Due to 'day light saving' theses times would get delayed by one hour after last Sunday of October.
All these market open and have effect on Gold, Silver, Crude prices.
Later we would discuss how to exploit these times.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#12
Quote:

Originally Posted by amanfree


well kamlesh what commodities are u trading??
Hi Aman, I am trading all 4 in the title of the thread.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#13
My basic AIM is: To help new guys become winners. I know it pains a lot on loosing money. Also, i have learnt a lot from
traderji.com so contributing my bit.
That's why keeping things as simple as possible and talking from basics. I think after few months this thread would be very rich
by knowledge and no. of traders contributing to it.
Kamlesh Uttam

Post#16
This is my Trade of the Year!
I waited patiently market kissing the trendline and was rewarded handsomely.
Theorem 01: During a Downtrend Highs/SwingHighs are to be watched first. (Similarly for an Uptrend)
Corollary of Theorem 1: If Highs/SwingHighs have been carefully treaded by the traders, take a note of this weakness in you
analysis.
Well...Fibonacci Levels are there in the chart. Note that at the Equillibrium Point of 50% Values matched exactly. That boosted
my confidence about my line of thinking.
OABC is my own line of thinking and terminology.
Theorem-02 " Price Momentum can not be killed abruptly where masses are involved. Every MOVE shall have a FOLLOW-UP
move"
OA - MOVE
BC - FOLLOW-UP
Profit Booking by Heikin-Ashi candles- 1 candle back.
Market Action:
Before O : It was BUYING
O to B : SELLING for profit Booking on Long Positions
B to A : Short SELLING then
A to B : Short COVERING, exhausts at B
From 'Confirming' to C: Fresh Short SELLING
It is very important to know what the Market's Activity is.
Kamlesh Uttam

Post#17
Favorite Trade Set Up: 02/08/2011
(5 min Crude chart)
(a) Fantastic Reward/Risk ratio
(b) HH
(c) Trendline Support
Market made me smile:
Volume increased immediately in my direction.
Kamlesh Uttam

Post#24
Originally Posted by amanfree
i hope u r enjoying gold and silver bull run
Yup! but time for consolidation is not far as on weekly charts it has already met its upper channel line. So it's time
for trailing SL profit booking.
Great news is that S&P 500 has done all the wrong things in the last few days broken 200 DMA for the first time after a long
timeincluding a LH-LL.. So, I think Gold still has a lot to go Higher. May be silver too will be dragged UP.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#25
Originally Posted by uttamkamlesh
Yup! but time for consolidation is not far as on weekly charts it has already met its upper channel line. So it's time
for trailing SL profit booking.
Great news is that S&P 500 has done all the wrong things in the last few days broken 200 DMA for the first time after a long
time including a LH-LL.. So, I think Gold still has a lot to go Higher. May be silver too will be dragged UP.
Kamlesh Uttam
It all happened today.....
Post#27
Well....See how without any complex indicators you can make Entry and Exit in Gold. Beauty is that Gold is in well Established
Establishe
Bull market, THE
E GREAT TREND. It would shout like anything before reversing no matter double dip recession or triple dip
recession surfaces.
Theorem 03: A TREND IS INTACT UNLESS PROVED OTHERWISE.
OTHERWISE
Corollary:: or in other words (Jesse Livermore even says): When in doubt, assume
sume that the trend is intact. TREND would save
you from any big trouble.

Post#28
MY TRADE OF THE YEAR - 02
Hi Guys!....Enjoy the chart.
Note the Reasons of Entry (as usual):
(a) Bearish Trendline
(b) LH-LL

Post#30
Hi Guys....
Look at the chart:
Why i did not enter the trade.

Post#31
Quote:

Originally Posted by amanfree


I m not able to find theorem No. 2
In the same post as Theorem - 01
Kamlesh Uttam

Post#32
Hi Guys,
These are the two trades i took in the last week. Second one turned out to be MASSIVE one due to recession fears.

I find trading commodities a lot easier as they TREND too often and keep on trending unless proved otherwise.
And there are not daily Gap open/down issues, no CEOs getting arrested. No inquiries for Gold or Silver. No
financial results etc.
Well it's up to you if you can benefit from the GREAT TREND.
Kamlesh Uttam

Post#33
Guys....Check out this trade of mine.
27/06/2011 : (05 min)

KEEP on REPEATING THE SAME THING AGAIN and AGAIN and become a winner. Best Wishes!

Kamlesh Uttam
Post#34
Hi Guys!.....meanwhile let me introduce myself.
I am a day-jobber, an IITian, employed in a PSU, R&D division. Have done teaching too so i try to simplify complicated things
.
Well.... i heard the word 'Technical Analysis' on TV then googled it and came to know that markets provide information which can
be processed to benefit from it. There are tools and a huge experience of legendary traders.
I kept on reading and reading. I attacked Dow Theory first and then Elliot Wave theory. Then so many books. I always wanted to
be a well-read person as an edge is necessary for long term survival. It's all in the books. Thanks to The Internet.
Well... It takes time, hard work and perseverance to become a surgeon, a lawyer, a player, and also a TRADER. But
beauty with the trading business is that It is SCALABLE. which inspired me to work hard and harder.
That's up for now. Later we 'll talk other things.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#36
These are the two trades i took on Crude yesterday.
05/08/2011 - (05 min)

Post#37
Quote:

Originally Posted by vjy_in


i really appreciate the efforts that u r takin !!!! thnks...
suggest some good books & software to learn TA.....
Well....
I use websites i mentioned earlier for trading plans. I can access live international charts on my mobile and call and trade with
the broker.
Software is ODIN-Diet
Diet provided by AngelBroking when i am trading 5 min charts in the evening.
Books...Well....I am going to mention few of them hoping that you would read them cover to cover....religiously.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

CANDLESTICK CHARTING EXPLAINED - Greg Morris


High Probability Trading Strategies Robert C. Miner
High Probability Trading - Marcel Link
Street Smarts Linda Raschke and Laurence Connors
Connor
Trade Chart Patterns like the Pros Suri Duddella - Check this man's Bibiliography

I would suggest Practice PATIENCE to master TRADING.


Believe me market is the Mother of Opportunities,
Opportunities it would feed you too.
Your opportunity would too come sooner orr later.
Kamlesh Uttam

Post#38
This is the TRADE i will be waiting for the next 2-3
2
months.

I hope it to become another TRADE of THE YEAR.


Kamlesh Uttam

Post#39
Guys....Check out this LINE of THINKING.

Kamlesh Uttam

Post#40
Theorem - 04: Market follows the 'Path of Least Resistance' just like current.
(a) When market is loaded with Short positions (OverSold) and cannot go further down and there are signs of stabilization, stay
alert a single trigger can surprise the market to the upside. As today is the status. Similarly for long positions.
(b) If market has formed a Resistance/Support line for itself, it pays attention to it in its next visit, It rebounds unless there is a
great force (High ADX) to penetrate it successfully.
(c) If a market becomes constrained within two opposite type of Trend lines /bull-bear forces, it expands in the direction of least
resistance. Driving force may be Risk/Reward ratio or one-sided market positions, HTF trend or whatever.
Theorem - 05 More Breakouts to the Upside are False than to the Downside.
It is a statistical fact so be cautious and always wait for confirmation. Refer Marcel Link's discussion on this.
Theorem - 06 SHORT SELLING is thrice faster in making MONEY than GOING LONG.
Just because of Gravity (Mass Mentality) working for it.
Check this out.

Post#41
Guys...Let's wait for this one too.
Trendlines: Lesser the angle with the Horizontal, Stronger the TRENDLINE is. and vice versa.

Post#47
Hey Guys....I would love to see guys contributing to this thread. That is Post the chart where the idea did/did not work..
Those who don't believe in it may plz spare this thread getting strayed away. Idea is not to waste anybody's TIME.
I would be posting my trades during the week on this idea. Also live trades in the making.. Keep on tracking this thread.
My Weekly trades for Gold, SILVER, NIFTY, Crude Oil are in the waiting.
I am confident we can repeat the same success again and again.
Kamlesh Uttam

Post#48
Quote:

Originally Posted by pannet1


Hello Utham Kamlesh,
How to get charts for other symbols like Zinc Mini from website esignal dot com. I tried various techniques to get it, but failed.
Of course the search returns symbol name and exchange.
Also which exchange is closely followed by MCX. Please confirm. Thanks.
For Zinc, Copper, etc. i have no idea.
Post#49
Guys! check this one out. If at all Silver touches this red Bullish Support Line i am going to BUY it.

Post#50
Guys! this one was my second big call on NIFTY when it made 5177.
I just drew the Bearish Resistance Line somewhere into the future and now i smile that it gave me a great trade and is still
making me wait for another great trade.

Note: As per the statistical work done by Greg Morris on candlesticks. It is written that if 'Two Black Crows (CNR)'
pattern forms after a run up (Over-bought Market) then there is no need for any further confirmation just Go Short
and both the times it worked great.
CNR: Confirmation Not Required

Kamlesh Uttam
Post#51
THE END OF A BULL MARKET
(a) A very large IPO comes, masses participate in frenzy and it drags and soaks all the money from weak hands/retailers into the
market.
(b) People are over-leveraged.
If at all Institutional selling starts due to any trigger there is no further supply of losers' money buying this selling.
It gets pronounced day by day. And finally people come to believe it after second leg of selling called 'Washout'.
Next Time whenever NIFTY approaches 6300, and ADX is not above 30 it's time to close all long positions in the
market.

Post#57
Theorem 07: EVERY CLIMAX VOLUME FALL ALMOST ALWAYS RETESTS ITSELF BEFORE RISING.
COVER YOUR SHORTS & GO LONG.........Dr. Alexander Elder

In this case Crude Retested $89 and and moved to $100.


Guys...Check this one out.

Post#58
Quote:

Originally Posted by NANDAMAD


I want to read these books.Hope I will get them in Goa.
Nanda
I doubt they are available easily in bookshops. Just download them from
www.4shared.com
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#59
Quote:

Originally Posted by pannet1


Kamlesh Uttam,
1) Did I miss your discussion on how to exploit this.
2) Which of these exchanges is followed by MCX tick by tick (leaving out the currency change).
NYMEX: Crude Oil
COMEX: Gold & Silver
Discussion is yet to come.
But arbitrageurs do the balancing act.
All market trend and trade in UNISON.
You can follow any one for a trade on more than 3 min chart.
Kamlesh Uttam

Post#63
Hi All...
I would love to see those who are visiting this thread to mark their presence here.
Feeling that my work is benefiting someone would certainly drive me.

Kamlesh Uttam

Post#64
This one is for S&P 500...

Post#65
Theorem-08: Low Volumes and Volatility are Often precursor to High Volatility in Price Action (PA).
Just because markets are dynamic place and their primary job is To churn money from weak hands to strong hands.
Theorem - 09: Every MOVE in the market has 'AT
'
LEAST' 3 legs.
AT LEAST is a rare word when used in trading just because trading is a game of probability and
and markets are a chaotic place. So

take a note of it.


This was the most precious fact (Secret) to me analyzing markets. Thanks to Robert Miner!
Well....as mentioned earlier it is important to know what the market MOVE is, i.e., what the market is doing basically
....BUYING or SHORT COVERING,
....SELLING or SHORT-SELLING.
As in the chart below you can see there are three legs OA-AB-BC. Those guys who don't use this fact just use indicators often
get whipsawed and blame it to the markets or operators. What happens is that indicator may be finally right but due to
emergence of BC leg they get confused and book losses or enter with wrong timing.
Corollary of Theorem - 09:
(a) If BC is weaker than OA (weaker means 1. Lower Volume 2. Sharpness (angle with the horizontal), 3. Price distance moved,
4. Not making new Low/High, )
Correction is over and MajorTrend shall resume eventually. BUY/SELL above/below B.
(b) If BC is stronger than OA (stronger means 1. Higher volume 2. Sharpness (angle with the horizontal) 3. Price distance
moved, 4. Making new Low/High)
A short term Trend may be in the making so a further FOLLOW-UP is most likely event.
If it again makes a new High/Low or better if it Closes there, a new Trend is born at least in the short term, i.e., immediate TF in
the analysis.

Post#67
Quote:

Originally Posted by tradersilver


Dear kamlesh
thanks a lot for guiding us newcomers in commodity. Is it possible to place pre market opening orders in mcx.I have seen that
one can't place orders between 9.45 am to 9.59 am. In the remaing 1 min even if i place my order and quote the highest on
buying side
ide my order will not get thro. Pls . shed some light on this. Once again thanks a lot for starting this thread
Before 10:00:00 AM MCX cannot accept any orders. Any orders you place will be with the broker. Then after 10:00:01 AM
broker's terminal transmits it to the exchange. There are market makers whom we retailers cannot compete just because they
have better access,
ess, better technology, bigger orders, @market orders.
@market orders always get preference.
Kamlesh Uttam

Post#69
NIFTY50 ANALYSIS:

Guys! TA is not a Rocket Science.


We apply the same well-known
known fundas again and again
because Markets (crowds) do the same thing again and again.
Just apply KISS (Keep It Simple Silly!...).

Post#72
Hi Guys,
Today i got this opportunity to trade.
Just look what the difference two charts have.
(a) One is international chart (from eSignal website) - telling there is a clear Opportunity.
(b) Other one is from MCX, confusing and saying the opposite.

That's why i Keep on watching/confirming from eSignal/cxportal.com charts every 2-3


2 3 minutes.

Post#74
Today's Trade:
Crude Oil....

While i am editing this post after MCX closed at 11:30 PM hourly charts SELL at C started performing and hit
at $79.25 and finally $77.6 to test B while we were sleeping in India.

Post#75
Quote:

Originally Posted by ashwani chadha


dear pav thanks for sending complete details of sar,the information provided was so complete it is a must read for all and
parabolic sar is a complete mechnical trading sistem
Dear Ashwini,
There is a very effective system called Wilder's ADX system along with Parabolic SAR. We shall discuss it later
lat on. I use it
almost always.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#76
WHEN I DO NOT TRADE ANY COMMODITIES:
Friday Close (MCX) at 11:30 PM to

Monday 5:50 PM (COMEX OPEN)


Volumes must be high for technical trading to succeed and save yourself from any kind of manipulation of markets.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#79
Quote:

Originally Posted by nagarjuna13


Hi Kamlesh,
I have couple of questions.
1) What are the time horizons of your trades? Do you day trade or across days. The reason for my question is that some of your
charts show multiple days and others show minutes. I think the time horizon depends on your chart and corresponding trend
line/signal. I just wanted to confirm with you.
2) How do you choose time frame to draw trend lines and other indicators?
tc
nag
Hi Nag,
I may trade any TF: 03 min, 05 min, 10 min, 15 min, 60 min, 240 min, Daily, Weekly.
Basically, Opportunity is the KING wherever i find it i embrace it.
I should feel convinced that i can repeat the same old fundas & success again.
There are two types of markets: Trending or Ranging.
Trending markets are easy to trade and perform faster, less prone to news / manipulation.
Theorem 10: A market which is Ranging in one time frame is a Trending market in another TF.
So, if i am comfortable with the risk of the trade i would trade that trend, be it weekly or 3 min.
That's why i keep on playing with different time frames in the chart, it's fun man!!!....
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#83
Quote:

Originally Posted by prst


hi friends,
please let me know about some sites that provide eod charts on commodities for free, along with some basic indicators (like rsi,
stochs)
eSignal.com is my favourite.....All the popular indicators are there, most accurate, international data and free.
I can adjust parameters, fine smoothening concept in Stochastics, in all a wonderful experience.
Check out 2nd post of the thread to click on the links.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#86
Guys! check out the following link for a factory of Trading Systems.
Then you can do back-testing and paper-trading and make one of them click for you!
These guys in the forum talk a lot of sense.
http://www.forexfactory.com/forumdisplay.php?f=71
Kamlesh Uttam

Post#87
Guys!
Following links you may click for Silver, Gold and Crude
SILVER:
http://quotes.esignal.com/esignalpro...chart.studies=
GOLD:
http://quotes.esignal.com/esignalpro...chart.studies=
CRUDE:
http://quotes.esignal.com/esignalpro...chart.studies=
Kamlesh Uttam

Post#90
Quote:

Originally Posted by hills_5000


Guys,
Google GCI MT4. Once you select the website then open a demo trading account there. You will have to down load MT4 /MT5
from there. Install it. Choose 50k/100K USD demo trading money in your account.
Therefater you will have access to gold , silver , crude , copper live 24 hrs charts. Lots of features. Ask if any query. You also
have nifty , RIL, SBIN , TataMotors , Wipro , etc . Plus US indices and European indices.
Good Luck.
Thanks Hills_5000, it is a wonderful free resource..!!!
Will it get blocked after 1 month?
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#93
Guys! today was a huge SHORT COVERING day on NIFTY.
Also fresh longs have opened.
As predicted NIFTY found support in Band-1
Band
@4720
Now let's wait for our opportunity to sell-short.
short.

Kamlesh Uttam

Post#94

Monday morning NIFTY should either open at 4940 or should crash to this value later on by Tuesday.
This is Rising Wedge formation.
Trade: GO SHORT if market opens +ve/Gap Up.
STOP LOSS: 5175
TARGET 4940.

Post#95

This is the Daily Chart:


Reasons for the Trade:
(a) Bearish Engulfing ...Confirmation for trend change to come on Monday.
(b) Over Bought Stochastics(14,3,3)
(c) Resistance below equilibrium Fibonacci value of 50%
(d) Gap at 5250-5300
5300 as great Resistance
NIFTY should either go down or turn choppy. Very limited upside.
If at all it goes up in the next leg it will come down eventually.
Trade:
I have bought few October(to avoid time decay) OTM Puts at 4600 and 4700.
I expect by October end markets would give me multifold profits.
I would post any adjustments to my trades on this thread on Daily or Intraday (if needed) basis. So you can take
the trade if you get the idea.
Kamlesh Uttam

Post#97

This Trade was on 30 min GOLD.


Same funda:
(a) One HL and one HH implies Trend got established => BUY on every decline.
(b) BUY and Book profits in the channel established with trailing SL order.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#102
Quote:

Originally Posted by prst


Hi uttam,
I have a query regarding the attached chart.
It says profit booked at point B.
but it is on the verge of breakout of the channel to the upper side.
is it wise to hold for higher breakout or book profits in such a stage?
thanks
prashanth
(a) Unload 50% positions right at B.
(b) Rest 50% move with Trailing SL order.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#103
Quote:

Originally Posted by kuldipsoni


sir many-2 thanks for how to trade commodity.sir sugges any site for mcx commoditis chart rate in form rupee[india]
Please take my words:
No use in using MCX charts for analysis, AT ALL. It's wrong to get pivot points etc. from MCX data.
Our markets are followers of international markets. Leaders are LME & NYMEX etc. FOLLOW only leaders and they open for 23.5
hrs X 5 days.
Reread posts in this thread for resources etc. It's all there already.
Regarding conversion of $ price to Rupee. Use proportion logic.
Suppose live international price of Gold is $1850 and that of our contract on MCX at the same time(live) is 28000.
Then at $Y international price, MCX price would be(28000/1850) x (Y)
Kamlesh Uttam

Post#106

Guys! By this time NIFTY has already crossed the target to 4911.2.
I have covered my short positions. So you do.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#110
Quote:

Originally Posted by kuldipsoni


sir i want good tips in mcx commodities like gold,silver etc.please suggas me about it
Plz don't think of making Big money by someone else's Tips unless it is a paid service of a proven (which is rare) organisation
organisati
which i at least don't know any.
Unless you are for Big money no use of so much hard work & stress in trading.
Firstly, Try to pick a suitable trading system.
Demo trade it, analyse your trades, refine trading rules.
Triple your money thrice in a row.
Then you are somewhat ready to make some money.
Man! It is very difficult to take money out of the markets.
Brightest brains work for you to ensure that!
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#111
Quote:

Originally Posted by chanduanu2007


Please anyone suggest me how to trade in commodities? I have Dmat account with Sharekhan, am I eligible invest my money in
gold MCX in sharekhan site, please advise me

For investing in Gold you need Commodity trading account not demat account.
Regarding how to trade - read at least all the posts of this thread
thre
especially previous one.
Best Wishes!
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#118
Quote:

Originally Posted by mdrafi67


HI ,
thanks for ur wonderful contribution............can u pls throw some light in detail about the chart u have listed
above.......pls be in little bit detail....hope u will post it so that many members here will be benefitted.....waiting for ur
post...........once again thank u..........
Hi Rafi,
In this set up:
The idea is catching the immediate trend established.
For that i just need a HL and a Higher HH then on next pullback i am a buyer. Better are the odds if that swing happens at a
trend line support.
It becomes a highly probable trade.
Earlier, a news spike has already made it public what the intent of the market is:
is: to the upside, because
becau price
immediately retraced back.

Post#119
Quote:

Originally Posted by pkamalesh


Kamlesh....I thought the res line was a good line to short..added some puts..Unfortunately by the time i edited the pic and
posted the market already tanked...

Uploaded with ImageShack.us


I too went short. Good to see you here!

Kamlesh Uttam

Post#120
Quote:

Originally Posted by pkamalesh


I think the Honeymoon period is quite over for Nifty..
1. RSI close to 51
2.Prices almost touching the top BB
3.The Upper Res TL adding up more shorts at the level without convincingly holding the 5100 mark..
Kamlesh Sir: Have been observing the thread for some time and absolutely convincing rules/methods..Plz Guide us through from
what we post..Thanks a ton..Seeing a valuable thread after long in TJ..

I am too short on NIFTY with SL at 5176.


Kamlesh Uttam
Post#121
[QUOTE=pkamalesh;586397]Hi Kamlesh sir..As per your posts tried to check if the following was a okay kind of
interpretation..and i think this could happen in the next week itself or probably 10 days...Just have a look and guide plz..

This is incorrect.
Actually what i do is Wolfe Wave pattern.
Google it out for yourself.

Kamlesh Uttam
Post#123
Quote:

Originally Posted by KID_of_MARKET


Is this Inverted H & S ??? (on eod chart of nifty as on 16/09/2011)

Seniors Pls Guide.

Looks like to me too. But it will confirm itself very soon if NIFTY closes above 5170. Then Target goes to 5550 to 5600. Let's see
how it unfolds.
Plz check neckline it asks some correction.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#124
Quote:

Originally Posted by myamit


Hi Kamlesh,
This is little contradicting to your post #30. Trendline kiss is there but there is no LL which you felt to give a miss in example
posted at #30.
Am I missing something? I very well understand that there are no fixed rule for all situation but am curious if I'm missing
something here.
Regards,
Hi Amit!
No! you are not missing anything. This trade was not as per the system.
1. I was trading the news. RBI came as per market expectation.
There was nothing for the market to explode to the upside due to hawkish commentary. So limited upside.
2. It was Friday's second half and last hour. Traders rarely take home long positions on holidays at least in these volatile
times.
3. I had SL just above resistance at 5136 and shorted at 5129. Risk was in total 7+3(brokerage). So Reward/Risk ratio made it
attractive.

Kamlesh Uttam
Post#127
Guys! check out this chart of INFY...

Reasons of Trade:
(a) HH-HL means uptrend established. LH-LL means downtrend established.
(b) BUY or SELL with Stoch crossover.
This week NIFTY has made bullish engulfing pattern. Now, let's wait for SELL signal.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#128
Quote:

Originally Posted by myamit


Thank you, Kamlesh.
I really appreciate your frank & straight forward approach.
BTW, have you tried making an AFL for this setup? Back-testing such pattern based trading method will be real fun.
No dear! i am a simple chemical engineer, no programming expertise here

Believe me This IDEA works just because it is supported by classical Dow Theory.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#130
Quote:

Originally Posted by KID_of_MARKET


I can't understand statement abt neckline !!!

(As I am kid in these concepts pls bare with me.

Post#131

As per the pattern if at all silver takes away the swing Low then it should see $36-37
$36
levels.
Kamlesh Uttam

Post#132

If you want to invest in Gold for few years then $1700 is the right price.
I am going to invest. I shall inform the day. I am waiting for time correction.
Gold is not a bubble. It is duly supported by central banks.
Post#135
Guys! may be you know it or not but i am now a days keeping S&P500 live open before me while trading Crude Oil.
Just because now a days Gold, Silver are taking a lot of cues from there.

Post#136
Quote:

Originally Posted by KID_of_MARKET


Ok. Got It. Sir !!! (Correction means continuation of upward rally (i.e. towards 5150-5170) in overall downtrend, I hope I
understand the right thing. )

No man! i meant your neckline should have passed from the point i have arrowed.
Post#140
Quote:

Originally Posted by v_karthikk


Hi Kamlesh , what charting software is this ??
This is free reuters chart for INFOSYS.
http://in.reuters.com/finance/stocks...symbol=INFY.NS
Kamlesh Uttam

Post#141

Rules: Always draw both lines: one on closing basis at LH another with the peak point at LH.

Kamlesh Uttam

Post#142
Guys! after a long wait finally our Trade on Crude has come.
You may SELL crude with SL at $91.12
Potential is at least up to $83 then to $79.
I am going to short it if S&P500 on Monday gives red candle as further confirmation.
Kamlesh Uttam
Quote:

Originally Posted by uttamkamlesh


Guys...Let's wait for this one too.
Trendlines: Lesser the angle with the Horizontal, Stronger the TRENDLINE is. and vice versa.

Weekly chart

Daily Chart

Post#144
Quote:

Originally Posted by priceaction


what time frame you use for crude
High probability opportunity decides my TF.
It may be 3 min to Weekly. Same fundas on different TFs.

Post#145

Post#147

Post#148
Quote:

Originally Posted by mdrafi67


-------------------------------------------------------------HI kamalesh sir,
gud observation and wonderful analysis considering the S&P500
S&P500 market.............how long are they in correlation with each
other. have u back tested it on any strategy............i hope to do paper trading on these two correlations and will come up with a
software with an integration of S&P500 and crude oil.............if
oil.............if it works gud under stable market conditions just have a look at
these and provide with further observation and comments ...........which will provide help me in building a correlation system.
syste
thanks ton...........fr8 work sir...............cheers!!!!!!!!!!
sir...............chee
Watch daily charts for both and you will see the correlation more visibly...
Post#149

Another instance of correlation between Crude Oil and S&P500.


(This Friday Closing session: 05 min chart)
Post#151
Quote:

Originally Posted by vol-trader


Dear Uttam Kamlesh Sir,
This is an amazing thread with lots of learning opportunities. I do not know much about about technical analysis but I will learn
l
before entering into markets. On previous instances I have lost money only.
This time I shall learn about commodities markets and participate in the market. There is lot to learn from your thread. Do keep
posting learning articles about technical analysis and commodities trading.
I have 2 queries:
Are there any sites which offer dummy commodities
commo
trading opportunities.
Can u suggest brokers which charge lower brokerages.
Thanking You for amazing contribution.
Check out
http://www.traderji.com/commodities/...ral--gas-9.html
.............Post number 88....
I would suggest you go through all the posts in this thread. Many requisites are already there.
Before trading live triple your money thrice in a row on Demo Account.

Kamlesh Uttam
Post#154
Quote:

Originally Posted by KID_of_MARKET


Sir, How $1700 is right price ?? Plz elborate
I think It is 50% retracement of last upswing.(1477-1921)
upswing.(1477
Yup!..Price has immediately retraced from 1703.1 once already.

Post#156
Quote:

Originally Posted by mdrafi67


---------------------------------------------------------------------hi sir,
thank u for ur wonderful posts...............i would like to know how do u write in side the chart ur comments before posting ...i'm
using mt5 right now................pls share this................thank u very much....................
I am using MT4.
There are tool buttons for that as [A] and [T] just below [New Order].
By the way from where you got MT5?....which broker sends data on it.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#160
Quote:

Originally Posted by calic


Sir
Where can I get these charts?
Please read all the posts of this thread.
It's already been discussed.
Post#163
Guys! ......Crude trade is already in profits..
You can also enter if $85 breaks!....

Kamlesh Uttam
Post#166
Quote:

Originally Posted by maxg


shorted at 4162. Do I get out today or hold on ?
Hold On....it is an ideal breakdown...just sit tight!.....
I shall update daily about any untoward signals.....stay cool....it shall hit at least $83 then ahead...that we have to trail with SL
order.....

Post#170

Guys! You may take the trade.

Post#171
Quote:

Originally Posted by vivek266


thanks for what you are sharing its a good thread and i am tracking from the starting.i want to ask about breakouts means when
we can say it is holdig a certain level or it is breaking down that level is there any rules for that .bcos i can draw the support and
Resistance line on chart but cant say wheather it is holding breaking that level
thanks
Breakout is to the upside.
Breakdown is to the downside.
1.
2.
3.
4.

If market bounces off the trend line implies it is respecting and recognizing it.
If it penetrates it again and gain or it trades nearby for more time means trend line is likely to be broken.
Lesser the angle with the horizontal stronger the trend line is.
On first kiss market almost always responds to a trendline/level. But how much that only market would tell.

Only market confirms everything.


Kamlesh Uttam
Post#173
Quote:

Originally Posted by mdrafi67


----------------------------------------------------------------hi Mr.kamlesh,
Thanks for ur suggestions. i would like to know that how much fall can be expected before its back on the retracement path. sir
will there be any correction about 50 per of fibonacci or just a minor correction is expected.sir do u use just trendline or any
other strategy. i'm paper trading SH-315, SH -534........along with trendlines. if u hv any idea regarding these strategies being
traded on commodities then pls let me know. can u pls post the crude oil and gold,silver charts with the valid trendline
indicators.......hope u will reply soon. thank u.............
Theorem 11: After a breakout/breakdown market is very likely to retrace back and get bounced off
the Trendline/Level which it broke/conquered. That is the confirmation action for surer move ahead.
Trade any method but know it fully. Frame the rules and follow them religiously when you go live.. That's it.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#174
Quote:

Originally Posted by myamit


You mean short crude with a target of $78 or so. I could not understand this chart... could you please elaborate?
Yes! Target is $83 first then $78.
Please Google out Wolfe Waves and read and practice as much as you can.
Post#176
Quote:

Originally Posted by myamit


Dear Kamlesh,
It may be too early to say but would you consider this as failed trade. As it seems most SL at 88 may have hit. Or you suggest
to keep SL little wider.
Regards,
SL is still at $91.12 to negate the trade.
Trade should close in the coming week.
Crude would sink with S&P500 and faster.
Post#182
Quote:

Originally Posted by uttamkamlesh


SL is still at $91.12 to negate the trade.
Trade should close in the coming week.
Crude would sink with S&P500 and faster.
Guys!...by now a Low of $82.63 has been made.
SL comes to $85.12.
Those who want to exit may do so now .
I have exited 2/3 of my positions. Cleaned the table!!!

Post#183
Quote:

Originally Posted by pkamalesh


Looked like more of a Channel BD than anything else...
Not a good one. Trade only the best ones which are obvious to other traders even if you don't speak to them.
Post#184
Quote:

Originally Posted by prate40


Hi Kamlesh,
I have not touched commodities so far. But now i want to have some gold in my portfolio, and book some profits at Diwali. Will it
be a safer bet and how much amount should i put in and would i be able to make some decent profits...???
Buy Gold at $1700 to $1710 if you can get. Buy December contract. Then renew it later on. You will make money.
If you can buy two contracts of Gold-M then buy 1 right now. You know it's bull market in Gold it may not go to $1700 levels.
Post#188
Quote:

Originally Posted by myamit


Kamlesh,
Why have you exited this so early? I understood that second target is 78.
Sorry if this question is too personal. I'm just curious that after all your prediction are going right, why have you exited so soon
and that too 100%.
Regards,
I still have 1/3rd of my positions that i shall target $78. Let's see.
Well...sometimes trading events do occur at night when we are sleeping in India. Then reactions may come so locked partial
profits.
No issues! many such opportunities come. Let's wait n trade.

Post#189
Quote:

Originally Posted by uttamkamlesh


I still have 1/3rd of my positions that i shall target $78. Let's see.
Well...sometimes trading events do occur at night when we are sleeping in India. Then reactions may come so locked partial
profits.
No issues! many such opportunities come. Let's wait n trade.
A Low of 78.36 has been made in crude.
Now is the time to close the short positions.
Congratulations to all those who participated.
Let me know who cleaned the table nicely.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#195
Quote:

Originally Posted by amanfree


Well i dont agree here no point catching a falling knife
But i agree with you!
Post#196

...

Quote:

Originally Posted by NANDAMAD


Uttam Kamlesh sir,
I had entered @4192 and exited @3935. But I went short 2 times and covered.
I earned Rs.23k in 2 trades. since I am working cd not make most of the opportunity. Thank you for your guidance.
Regards
Nanda
Congrats Nanda!.....Next time we 'll make it better.
Post#197
Guys! My name is Kamlesh...surname is Uttam....just for your convenience of choice.....just wanted to inform....
Post#199
Guys! plz post here your returns from the trades.
It would help new guys a lot in many ways.
Well i made 68k for 3 contracts in this crude trade equal to one month salary in hand.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#200

. Cheers!....

Silver Future:
Bullish view: It should consolidate for along time first before moving up.
Bearish view: It may touch lower levels.
Suggestion: no fresh trades on daily/weekly charts.

Kamlesh Uttam

Post#201
Quote:

Originally Posted by myamit


Kmalesh,
I have rarely seen such precision (that too as you have said in 2000 mins). I was really missing your posts for last 20+ hours ;-)
By the way, could you please share your outlook on Gold & Silver?
Regards,
Hi Amit....
I am happy that you read my posts so minutely. I liked it.
I expect everyone here to go through the posts, theorems, rules and line of thinking, when, why, etc. of the
analysis at least twice. It would help becoming independent.
Kamlesh Uttam

Post#202
Guys! This is today's Wolfe Wave on NIFTY on 05 min chart.
....a Perfect one....i loved it...

Post#203

Post#205
Post-Martem of CRUDE OIL: WW nailed $77.55

Post#207
Quote:

Originally Posted by amardeep singh


Dear Kamlesh ji
I seek your valuable advise for mid term (3-6
6 months)
investment in the commodities.
Thanks in advance.
Soon i shall post when to enter Gold....wait for a week or two...
Post#209
Quote:

Originally Posted by prst


kamlesh,
need ur view on entering long/short positions on gold with a far contract ( for ex, buying nov or dec contract now)
will it be helpful , or will its price move at a very slow rate ( just like our nifty call options of next month) ?

thanks
prashanth
Gold would whisper in a week or two for a long position.
I will buy Gold contract of December.

Post#216

Trade: Short LnT if it closes below 1380.


Target: Sub-1000 levels are possible.
Stop Loss: Above neckline (1550 around)
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#219
Quote:

Originally Posted by KID_of_MARKET


Thanks for your valuable opinion.
But..
Sir, How 1380 ???
I think it has already broke down its neckline.
1390 is Lower point of Neckline let that be taken with a filter of 10.
Then go bearish on LnT and short it....That's the idea.
You can short it today itself but 1390 may provide support to it.
Ya! neckline has been broken but i would like to wait for NIFTY to crack with it. Then LnT would be on perfect downhill....
Post#220
Quote:

Originally Posted by cpt.rajesh14


kamalesh je,
How to find out the target for trend line based trading?
Advanced thanks
Regards,
M.R.K
It's case by case, nothing in general....
Post#221

Let's see how gold pans out....


This is what i anticipate...as per Wave Theory and Trendlines and Fibonacci Analysis.
Post#222

Post#223

Post#224
Guys! Gold has broken all support lines.
Right now @1545.
So we have to wait n watch for our entry.
Let's see how it responds to 1478.3
Post#224
Quote:

Originally Posted by uttamkamlesh


Guys! Gold has broken all support lines.
Right now @1545.
So we have to wait n watch for our entry.
Let's see how it responds to 1478.3

In this Gold Weekly chart, i think it's Hammer forming up. Good!
Let us wait on closing basis.
Post#226
http://stocata.org/sp500analysis_en/daily.html
Guys you may short S&P500 on NSE @1130 around.
Post#229
Quote:

Originally Posted by myamit


Are you thinking for target of 4980+ for Nifty (maybe by EOD today)
Btw... how would calculate time to reach the target? Like last crude trade, you mentioned 2000 mins.
Regards,
No! NIFTY has rejected 5000 levels already in the morning by making Open=High before expiry tomorrow. So very feeble
chances for 4980+ levels again.
Well....This is a very poor WW, untradable.
Time is a difficult variable to predict.
For crude i told on a funda that i read in Jeffrey Kennedy's classroom lectures for Elliot Wave Theory.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#231
Guys! Who are new to Wolfe Waves to first paper trade at least 100 such waves. Then only put your hard earned
money at risk.Making money from Wolfe Waves is fast but needs expert's touch. Please paper trade first.
Google out, read everything about them available and frame your rules. Before a trade ensure that you are following the rules
exactly without compromise.
================================================
To earn 1-2% in commodities daily just master Pride's Intraday Strategy. It has a great combination of settings, dual TF,
momentum.
The idea originates from Robert C Miner. http://www.traderji.com/day-trading/...-everyday.html
Tweaks i suggest:

1. Just Go with the trend because 'trend is your friend' as they say but only if you are with it.
it
2. Commodities trend a lot.
3. Check economic calender first for any forthcoming NEWS. Systems perform well in the absence of news..
news.
4. Take [240 min - 30 min - 5 min] all momentums together for intraday trade on 05 min chart. Highly probable trade.
5. Look for and draw valid trendlines on all TF.
Paper trade first at least 30 such trades. That you can finish in 2 weeks.
Then analyse the results. Frame rules and then trade with them.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#235
...no take dear.
Post#236
Quote:

Originally Posted by VJAY


Dear Uttam,
Nice thread today only checked your thread....feeling sad about missing this thread from begining...as am trade price actions
this thread give new arsenal to me
...thanks a lot.....
I want to know is your all trading activities in 5 min trf ?if no please explain little bit.....
Welcome Vijay....Please go through all posts. You would love it.
Well...Opportunity and Risk decide my TF. From 03 min to Weekly.
Post#240
Quote:

Originally Posted by KID_of_MARKET


Is it right time to short L&T ?
As already discussed best price was 1380 to short LnT.
I think you missed it. Look for another opportunity now.
Today LnT fell on strong volumes in a rising market.
That shows its weakness.
Post#241
Guys! This is Today's WW on 10 min chart. Only point 5 was needed today.
Yesterday i thought in office to post it in the evening but forgot at home. Sorry!

Post#243
Guys! You may take this trade tomorrow. It is well-structured
well
Wolfe Wave.
I shall take it..................Kamlesh Uttam

Post#244
Guys! This the trade i am presently in today.
Same old fundas.

Post#246
Quote:

Originally Posted by uttamkamlesh


Guys! You may take this trade tomorrow. It is well-structured Wolfe Wave.
I shall take it..................Kamlesh Uttam

Follow-up of the above trade:


Nifty spot has by now made a low of 4952.75.
4952.75
I will be closing my trade at around 4903.
4903
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#247
Quote:

Originally Posted by myamit


hello...
could you please let me know how to draw trendline at esignal charts? Thanks.
Hi Amit:
Open the chart on eSignal -->
> Print Screen by Key Board ---> Open Paint Window --->
> Paste the content ---->
Select the chart area ---> Cut it ---->
> Open new window on Paint --->
> Paste the selected chart ---> Now do all the
sketching at your will....and save.
Post#248
Guys! Please assume all the trades that i post here are for illustration on how to apply the techniques.
Don't open any trade unless i say so specifically in the post because for only those trades (where i suggest you to
take the trade) i would able to provide the follow-up.
follow up. Finally, though i am making money for myself with my
analysis
is but please take due care of your funds yourself.
I hope you all would cooperate.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#251
Quote:

Originally Posted by uttamkamlesh


Follow-up of the above trade:
Nifty spot has by now made a low of 4952.75.
4952.75
I will be closing my trade at around 4903.
4903
Kamlesh Uttam

Finally, 4924.3 has been made on NIFTY Spot. Time is 2:46 PM now.
Now trail your SL order on one 15 min candle back.
Make sure that you close the positions before markets close.
Congrats! to those who made profits. I made 4999 - 4931 - 3 = 65 points per lot
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#253
Quote:

Originally Posted by vinodjaiswal


Hi Kamlesh valuable information you have provided. I use some chart those are free to download. They prices are in dollar. They
are on real time chart. So doing any technical study on it help me to take position in local market. Can u provide your contact
number so that we can share the things.
Hi Vinod....Please go through all the posts in the thread.
You would love it!....i hope.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#254
Quote:

Originally Posted by srinivas_rao


Hi i need tips on commodities trading.. i have already into commodities trading for gold and silver... but got huge loss in silver..
please anyone suggest me the technical analysis how to make money in commodities trading please...
Please go through all the posts in the thread and keep a track of it.
I hope in a few months you would do much better with some hard work, of course.

Kamlesh Uttam
Post#256

Post#257
CRUDE OIL : 60 min

Post#258
Guys! this is the trade i would be waiting to take.
Let's hope it does not happen while we are sleeping in India.

Post#259

Gold became a victim of Hedge fund selling which has a feature 'when they sell they sell at any cost'.
Post#261
Quote:

Originally Posted by KID_of_MARKET


In this scenario Where to book profits?
At every lower low ?
or at last when trend line break upside ?
And suppose I have taken position at first kiss when to exit it??.... at next lower low or add in to when next lower high forms
for
and
exit all the trades at trend line break?
Best way is to lock profits first by a trailing Stop Loss order.
Initially two candles back then one candle back.
By experience we get a better feel where to exit after we have already locked in some profits.
(a) LL
(b) at Number support like $80, $75, $70 etc.
(c) Bullish Stoch crossover.
(d) HH-HL in immediate lower TF.
(e) Descending channel by BRL and a parallel line passing through LL.
(f) Fibonacci projections
Wherever there is a chance of good support, or market gets bullish news etc. we exit.
I think Stochastics crossover is a better choice
oice for a beginner.
Remember picking the bottom is not what we try.
Finally, i don't do pyramiding in this method. I don't find any place to do so.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#262
Guys! I have two more books to recommend, a must read for a genuine trader.
1. Reminiscences of a Stock Operator - American author Edwin Lefvre
2. Trading for a Living - Dr. Alexander Elder (Classic Book, almost everyone successful has read it)
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#265
Guys! Yesterday i thought of summarizing my system of BRL-[LH-LL] in the thread itself first and then later on
preparing a .pdf booklet with all the rules, exceptions & numerous examples and uploading it
at www.4shared.com so that it can be disseminated to traders community.
commun
This method is my brainchild (Bearish Resistance Line is free of copyrights, LH-LL
LH LL of course belongs to Dow Theory,
but hybridizing the two for simple trading decisions is solely my idea) and hence i reserve all the copyrights and
name it as "Uttam's Method of SELLING"
"
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#266
Quote:

Originally Posted by kk82


Hi kamlesh,
I really appreciate you sharing all your knowledge..Great stuff and i hope you continue doing so as i am sure a lot of people are
getting benefited by this !!
I read all the posts in this thread and they were very informative..I have subscribed to this thread ..Thanks again Friend..

Kiran
Welcome to the thread Kiran. I am happy to hear that you read all the posts, which is what i want from all the new joinees to
this thread. That ensures smooth continuity in the discussions.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#267
Guys! In this post i am going to discuss something very important about Stop Loss orders.
There are two usage of Stop Loss orders:
1. To Enter into the trade
2. To Exit out of the trade.
Stop Loss orders may be with Limit Price/@Market Price while Entering into the trade but must be @Market Price
while Exiting -- Richard Donchian
...............Just because while exiting, the reason for being into the trade vanishes. For example, if you have entered
into the trade to profit from momentum with a bullish stochastic crossover. Now trade goes into profit and
Stochastics finally makes bearish crossover. Now you MUST exit the trade without your order being skipped by the
market as bullish momentum has already vanished from the market.
Now look at the two cases:
(a) Suppose you have a limit price in the Stop Loss order and there comes a big order at your limit price or market
has low liquidity at that price your order may get skipped and your profits may disappear and if it is a losing trade
losses may swell. You never know how much damage market can do to you.
I have once suffered a big loss due to skip of SL order in the very liquid market of NIFTY where my gap between
Limit price and Trigger price was 1 point. I was in office and had opened a trade over phone and put a SL order and
was relaxed that if i am proved wrong my losses would be limited to my SL Limit price.
(b) Now if you have Stop Loss order as: Trigger price: (value) and Limit Price as '0' (zero). Then you don't have to
worry about liquidity etc. your order will get executed @market price and there is no danger of it being skipped
which is a must while EXIT. When you SHOULD exit (either with profit or loss) you MUST exit at any cost just
because the reason of the trade has vanished by then.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#273
Quote:

Originally Posted by sanblue


Commodity Trading is not the easy Task, when we are constantly keep watch on market Trends, Market Trend Prices on that
basis we can start trading. for that we have to check market watch reports of commodities.
visit here Crude Oil Market Watch Report to find the best Place for finding Latest Market Watch report for Crude oil, Gold, silver
and many more.
Dear Member,
1. I think trading itself it not easy task.
2. What you want to say is trading with fundamental analysis (FA).
3. We are making money from technical analysis (TA) here in this thread.
Just go through all the posts if you have that much patience. I am sure you will feel better about TA.
If not now, please revisit this thread after 6 months.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#274
Quote:

Originally Posted by kk82


Hi kamlesh,
I am just starting with commodities..And i had a basic question that i hope you would help me with..My account is in sharekhan
and they provide mcx charts for the various contracts in the commodities..Somewhere along this thread you had mentioned that
the data from mcx is not reliable..So do you recommend to follow international charts from esignal etc..? If that's the case then
aren't those prices spot prices..So how do you decide on the entry price ? Can you please help me understand this...Thanks a
lot..
Download MT4 from GCI Financials, open a demo account. Use MT4 live quotes charts along with eSignal charts for
your analysis. That much only i use now a days.
Since you are new to trading, i would suggest you to go slow and open a small account and paper trade for 3-4
months.
Much of the stuff that is required for a beginner has been already included in the thread, be it resources or
suggestions or books etc....
You may re-look at the posts whenever needed.
It takes around 3-5 years at least for a newbie to be ready for the long race in this business.....Marcel Link
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#277
Quote:

Originally Posted by NANDAMAD


uttam kamlesh sir,
waiting for a trade like last you gave in crude.
regards
Well......i think we both should have carried that short till today and our margin money would have again doubled
by now

But i got Rs. 4000/- per lot within an hour so i said thank you to crude and forgot about it.
Next day you said you also had opened the trade. I could not recall which trade.. That's why i immediately told you
to square it off.
I don't want you to lose any money because of me at least.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#278
Quote:

Originally Posted by kk82


Thanks a lot Kamlesh..do you check mcx prices too and then convert the international prices to mcx before entry....
I keep on making observations on real time MT4 prices and some drawing etc on eSignal.com then when i am satisfied with
the opportunity i place the order in MCX. No conversion etc. Just market price. For Stop Loss order i would
find corresponding place (swing Low etc.) in the MCX live chart.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#279
Guys! Today NIFTY has nailed this EPA line too. Cheers!

Post#280
Guys! Check this out ...........NIFTY Today

Post#284
Quote:

Originally Posted by VJAY


Dear uttam,
Here you took nf short trade ...how you trail s/l using 5 min trf?or you stick to your inetial s/l?
Hi Vijay,....pl. visit post number 261.
Everyone who wants to know how to book profits with BRL-[LH-LL]
BRL
should re-look
look at 261st post.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#285
Quote:

Originally Posted by shekharinvest

But the Nifty futures had gone in the opposite direction. To hit an SL here is not the
issue.
Would it not be prudent to follow the charts for what we intends to trade. In the instant
case NF instead of NS.

SHEKHAR
I find it better to assume NIFTY Spot as primary chart....Futures as secondary.....
Post#286
Quote:

Originally Posted by kk82


Kamlesh, are the prices in gci real time ie without any delay? Thanks again for all the help..
Prices in GCI MT$ are perfectly real time...no delay....for free
Post#288
Guys! This is the post-martem
martem of NIFTY Sell Yesterday.
I had sold NF at 4870 and at open itself covered at 4832.
Net Gain 38 -3 points.
Covered due to a support at 4800-4810.
4810.

Post#289
Quote:

Originally Posted by shekharinvest


Thanks for response.
In that case how do you manage SL's.
One has to trade NF. It was in 18 pts premium yesterday and considering 10-15 pts SL on NS aprox. 30 pts isn't a too large a SL
for 5 min TF.
SHEKHAR
Dear Shekhar, take decision with NS (Entry & Exit both).....and place the order in NF @market.....place SL a little wide for run
away cases. If NIFTY spot holds LH then square off the trade.
You can paper trade for 10 times then you will feel comfortable with it.
This is what i am doing.....
Post#290
Guys! This is the WW which achieved target in the morning session.

Post#292
Quote:

Originally Posted by shekharinvest


Your BRL seems to hold yet again.
NS made a LL in the morning.
I believe it is a Sell now @ 4860 NS.
SHEKHAR
You got it Shekhar.....BRL as well as LH-LL.
Opportunity should always be just perfect. no junk Trades. Let's be Royal....
There are so many opportunities out there. Believe me.

kamlesh Uttam
Post#296
Quote:

Originally Posted by rajgreenpeace


M not commodity trader but i will join soon..........can v trade with out chart...........like eqity 30 mnt high low method.........

I cannot do that.
Post#297
Quote:

Originally Posted by adityasaraf007


Kamlesh ji... please look at it.... is it a valid Wolfe Wave (Gap based).... but the problem is that the lines 1-3-5
1
& 2-4 would
never converge....
Regards
Aditya
Hi Aditya, This is not a valid WW.
Convergence of the two lines is the secret of success of any WW.
Price compression is exhibited as convergence of two
t
lines.
Try to work for six months on WW. You would not regret your time.

Kamlesh Uttam

Post#298
Quote:

Originally Posted by srinivas_rao


Hi Kamlesh,
I need to speak to you directly can you please give me your contact number.... i need ur help. Thank you in advance.
Srinivas
Hi Srinivas, i can understand you need help,
but i too can not afford to give my phone number to any body.
I can help only through this thread right now.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#300

This was a not an easy trade as market was coming off a Number Support of $75.
But i bet on at least a retracement to make a HL and captured sufficient money.
Post#302
Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigbear


Dear Kamlesh Uttam,
I am a believer of S&R's & Dow Theory(HH-HL/LH
HL/LH-LL)
I have one basic question, Why do you say Trendlines & patterns like WW work? because you said
Read as much as possible on how to draw valid Trendlines/Channels and Practice them. This is the Foundation for
Thinking among traders
I'm not against your method.
d. I want to know your view as a beginner .
My research of one year on WW in NIFTY as well as S&P500 says so.
I have completed a course on WW by Bill Wolfe himself for which he charges $3000 and
i have traded around 150 Wolfe waves live till now....and have a huge collection of WWs.
For Trend-lines - no need to comment.
Please go through all the posts in the thread.
You may find something new and useful.

Kamlesh Uttam
Post#305
Quote:

Originally Posted by winsomecapital


Dear Uttam
You are really doing very good work for new traders. could you please tell me that pride strategy work on commodities or not
because I am applying this strategy in Gold. But did not get any trade.
many thanks for your thread
It works and and gives more trades than NIFTY.
Be patient and apply it on Crude, Silver, Gold, NIFTY simultaneously.....
I keep open all windows in MT4........5 min 30 min for each scrip.....
Include the tweaks i have suggested along with LH-LL.....
Kamlesh Uttam

Post#307
Guys! This is today's trade in Crude with BRL-[LH-LL]

Post#309
Quote:

Originally Posted by kk82


Hi Kamlesh ji,
Is this a 5 min chart?
Each chart has this info at....Bottom right
Post#311
Quote:

Originally Posted by kk82


oh sorry had missed that..
Also kamlesh ji will the gci guys block the application after the demo trading money is over? or is there a time limit like 1
month..

I have been using it since more than 1 month...........Don't lose all your money in demo account...i think then they may block
it.....
Post#314
Happy Dussera to all of you!!!
Today i am going to publish my first major contribution to Traderji.com
Uttam's Method of SELLING v1.0
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#315

Uttam's Method of SELLING v1.0


Idea:
Sell Strength in Weakness

Set Up:
1. If market is coming off making a LH-LL (Weakness)
2. Kiss to BRL ( Strength)
3. Time symmetry between LH, LL & Kiss to BRL

Betting on:
Market has to bounce back from BRL, for a while at least, to either make a HL/ LL.

Entry:______ Kiss to BRL


Stop Loss:___ LH
Exit:________ Always with a Trailing Stop Loss

Guidelines:
1. Time symmetry between LH, LL and BRL Kiss is important for the success of the Set-up.
__(Ideally, equal time interval, range 0.5-2.0).
2. Stay cautious if the market is coming off Double/Triple Bottom, Number Support, etc.
3. Ensure that LL happens on a Closing basis.
4. Method excels in Bear markets, Ranging markets, Over-bought markets.
5. Lesser the angle of BRL with the horizontal, stronger it will act.
__Better Reward/Risk ratio for the trade means more market participants would sell with you.
6. Regarding exit/profit booking please read post #261 too.
7. Beauty in this set-up is that you know your approximate entry Price & Time way back.
__This reduces stress of tracking market's each candle.
Finally, it's the practice and experience gained which would better you at it day by day.

Best Wishes!
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#319
Quote:

Originally Posted by kuldipsoni


sir i want detail about techenical indicator please sugges me any site or book
Hi Kuldip...Plz go through all the posts in the thread....Everything you need has been discussed already.
Post#320
Quote:

Originally Posted by myamit


Hello Uttam,
(sorry I'm confused whether your first name is Uttam or Kamlesh)
Great initiative!
More than results this method can generate, I like simple approach.
Let me see if I can make an AFL based upon your methodology. Ill keep you updated.

Regards,
My first name is Kamlesh....surname is Uttam.....choice is at your convenience....
Plz tell me if you know....How can we add a new indicator in MT4 if we have the program file.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#321
Quote:

Originally Posted by myamit


Hello Kamlesh,
Could you please provide more details about WW course? I've been told that we first are provided with study material. After this
we are given 10 days fax tutorials by Bill Wolfe. Also do let me know how useful it would be if somebody is strictly trading Indian
markets.
Also could you please share your experience about Gartley & Butterfly patterns. These patterns look interesting as they are
based on fib retracements.
Thank you.
I think course is costly.....I would help all people who genuinely want to master WW....but i 'll do it gradually.....
WWs happen in all markets.....including commodities.

I have tried butterfly & gartley.....but calculations in Excel spreadsheet seemed of no use. Then i dropped it....This effort was
done in bull market in NIFTY...and i was making money with Elliot wave so i left the work there itself....I think you need some
software to do the calculations for you.
Please read Suri Duddela's Book - -Trade chart Patterns like the Pros.....
Post#322
Quote:

Originally Posted by vivek266


Uttam sir Here is 240 min chart of copper i draw a Wolfe wave on it but i have doubt that this a valid Wolfe wave or not please
tell me .
Vivek...This is not a valid WW.....
Convergence of the lines is there....
but point 3 should be below point 1 and
at point 5 volume should have a spike.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#326
Quote:

Originally Posted by myamit


Hello Uttam,
I understand the price but I guess in a market where you can cover your money in few days, it is not a bad investment.
Anyway, I just wanted to know methodoloy for training rather than taking a course.
About Gartley & butterfly, I do have software (and I've developed AFL for mu use) that can help me. Something like GTL has
developed Gartley pattern with a low on 29/Sep. Hoping to see first target of 65 soon.
Also SBI has made gartley on hourly time frame & hoping to see small bounce back in coming days. Let's see.
Lastly, Suri Duddela's book just defines patterns. Actually I need something more.. something like confirmation after pattern
develops, chances of success & ratios etc.
Regards,
Course methodology is same as you know....first booklet...then faxes....but i did mistakes in exuberance...i thought i got a
secret to markets....it was my own research later and experience that made me click finally....
I asked you how to load an indicator in MT4 if i have the program file....Plz tell the steps....
Post#327
Guys! Right now this is the only link available to download Wolfe Wave manual from internet ....As soon as a link
comes up the site is forced to delete it as the material is copyrighted...so you never know when it will get blocked...
plz download it as soon as possible....take print and read at least twice...

http://forexcoach.ru/1ongamenet/Trad...fe%20Waves.pdf
Kamlesh Uttam

Post#330
SHEKHAR....Time symmetry is little poor.....Continuous charts are preferred...
When in doubt just paper trade....i would have though taken the trade for scalping at least as 4700 is a good support from Daily
analysis....
Take decision from NIFTY Spot only....4950 would provide resistance....
Post#332
Bullish Wolfe Waves have been set up and running in S&P 500 as well as our NIFTY....120 min charts....in the evening i would
post the charts....
Don't go short on NIFTY....
Post#334
Quote:

Originally Posted by myamit


Hello Uttam,
I could not understand your comment here. I do not use MT4 but AmiBroker.
Btw, do you have WW indicator for MT4?
Regards,
I thought you would be knowing how to load a new indicator in MT4.
Well i don't have WW indicator...
Post#335
Quote:

Originally Posted by Royce


Hi Mr.Uttam. I was just experimenting with a few wolfe indicators based on ZZ's in MT4.Could you check if this was a valid trade
based on WW?

Yes it is WW man!....also try to ensure you have a volume spike at point 5....
Post#341
Quote:

Originally Posted by KID_of_MARKET


I have found with one such indicator in gold 30 Min,
Is it valid one ?
Yes KID you have got it right....In fact i had planned to post this chart....
Please share the indicator application....how to do it.....stepwise....It looks beautiful....
Post#343
Quote:

Originally Posted by adityasaraf007


Kamleshji... have a look at it.... I don't trade Commodities... just trying to follow you... Paper trading it...

Here's the Crude 240 mins Chart... Sold at 82.48... SL at 84 (previous LH was 83.98).... Inserted a Take Profit level at 80.08
(good support around that area)....
Market is coming off Double Bottom on Daily chart....(Highter TF events are more powerful)...Well....BRL should be capturing
peaks at least at origin (far left end) ....
Post#345
KID ....Special thanks to you!!!!
Your help opens new horizon to my use of MT4....
Post#347
S&P500 ...180 min

Post#348
NIFTY 180 min....WW

Post#349
Gold 60 min WW...

Post#350

Post#351
NIFTY WW Today....Pin Point Accuracy....Wow!!!

Post#352

Post#354
Quote:

Originally Posted by kk82


Hi ,
I have a very basic question kamlesh..I have never used MT4 and custom indicators. I just added the wolfe indicator and by
checking the chart of silver i see a few wolfe waves in the historical data.Now my question is in real time data if i add the
indicator..as soon as the wave is formed will it be shown in MT4 or will it be shown only after the full wave is formed?
I am also new to this indicator ....Let's see how it does it.
I expect as soon as point 4 has been made and price is going to make point 5 it should appear....to be traded....because we
enter at point 5....
Post#355
Quote:

Originally Posted by hills_5000


there is a wolfe formed on nifty from sep todate ..with target at 6200+ ?...just eye balling ..
I have seen that but point 2, 4 can not be located.....correctly.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#356
Gold WW has nailed it's EPA line with pin-point accuracy.

Post#357
Quote:

Originally Posted by adityasaraf007


Kamleshji... have a look at it.... I don't trade Commodities... just trying to follow you... Paper trading it...
Here's the Crude 240 mins Chart... Sold at 82.48... SL at 84 (previous LH was 83.98).... Inserted a Take Profit level at 80.08
80.0
(good support around that area)..
Hi Aditya!....your trade is also showing profit......
Crude has made a Low of $81.36 by now....
But had your BRL been better you could have sold even higher.

Post#364
Quote:

Originally Posted by hills_5000


Hi Uttam... it would be nice if you post the charts when point 5 is reached and not after the wolfe is complete... lots of times in
hindsight wolfe patterns look perfect but its diff when one has to take a call on them with real money.
thanks
Hi....If you go through all the posts in this thread you would notice that my effort has been the same wherever possible. Please
Pl
refer posts #94, #142, #170, #182, #200, #202, #205, #241, #243, #251, #279, #350, #356.
Gradually, I am going to divulge everything i know about WW and I expect very soon you would do the same for all of us what
you are asking from me

Man!...i am a day jobber 8:30-5:00,


5:00, a family man, also physician told 'early to bed & early to rise...'...and to refrain from PC
screen as much as possible.....some restrictions in office too....i hope you can understand
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#365
Quote:

Originally Posted by adityasaraf007


Yes... but the SL of 84 was saved by a whisker... the high was 83.99
Closed this trade in profit.... BTW, MetaTrader is a lovely platform....

....

Hi Aditya!....For this trade your Stop Loss should have been...$84.06. A filter is always a good thing. Since $84 was
already a Number resistance so SL must be a little above it.
Post#366
Quote:

Originally Posted by adityasaraf007


@Kamlesh ji
The WW that you had drawn is not a valid one.... as the lines 1-3-5 & 2-4 are parallel & so would not converge with each
other.... Please clear the doubt, as the same scenario was there in the chart of Nifty which I had posted on 4th Oct...
Regards
Diverging lines are never allowed in WW pattern.
Parallel lines also succeed but that success can be attributed to market holding 1-3-5 line, not WW pattern.
I think in this case lines are converging.
Volume spike at point 5 is the most important confirmation of it being WW.

Post#367
Quote:

Originally Posted by uttamkamlesh


Guys! Right now this is the only link available to download Wolfe Wave manual from internet ....As soon as a link
comes up the site is forced to delete it as the material is copyrighted...so you never know when it will get blocked...
plz download it as soon as possible....take print and read at least twice...

http://forexcoach.ru/1ongamenet/Trad...fe%20Waves.pdf
Kamlesh Uttam
Guys!....I hope by now all of you have downloaded Wolfe Wave manual by Bill Wolfe. If not please do so as soon as
possible.
It would improve our quality of WW discussions.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#368
Guys!...Today i went through all the posts in my thread. I felt very good.
You too may do so. It should benefit you even more.
Happy reading!
Post#370
Quote:

Originally Posted by hills_5000


Hi Uttam,
I learnt WW quite sometime back from one of the threads here or in Saint's forum , I dont remember. There was a ppt also for

beginners with ratios. ( I wish I could post that , but my old HD crashed and with that went all of that). But what I did realise
rea
was
as that sometimes even if the ratios were right , the W did not work AND there were times when even if the ratios weren't right
rig
it worked out. What was needed was a swing high and a swing low , plus the symmetry should look right. In my experience it
would then work out.
Not withstanding that I mostly use W to identify an impending move and then look for confirmations through various other
oscillators , fundamentals etc.
Which is why I had asked you about the nifty bullish W yesterday. Murtaza is a much more experienced trader and who has a
good strike rate with W.
regards
Hey Hills_5000!...Plz imbibe the real WW trading from the original manual.
Then in NIFTY (being Index) you can hit more than 95%, believe me.
Post#377
Quote:

Originally Posted by mdrafi67


hi Kamleshji,
thanks for ur post. I would like to know does a bigger WW with a smaller WW pattern within it attracts more importance n more
of confirmation of getting EPA. About ETA Bill Wolfe himself explained in his course that ETA holds lesser
lesse importance when
compared to EPA.....is there any other view of urs about WW study regarding ETA.....more light on this will be of more help as
a
"TIME" plays a key role in any trading strategy......bcoz holding period and margin are two most important things
thin
while trading
in commodities.......hope u will reply................thank u very much....................
1. I would like to know does a bigger WW with a smaller WW pattern within it attracts more importance n more of confirmation
of getting EPA.
-----99.9% of the time. I personally have never seen such a case.
2. ETA...no need to take into account if lines are converging.
converging

Post#378
[QUOTE=KID_of_MARKET;594388]is this copper ww?
Always look for a volume spike @ Point 5.
In this case it was not there.
Post#379
Quote:

Originally Posted by arjit


Dear Kamlesh,Which mobile you use to see live chart?Your view on crude?
Nokia C5 00
Post#382
Quote:

Originally Posted by emailkailash


Hi Uttam,
Can you check if Bharti Airtel is developing a Bearish WW in Daily Timeframe.
Please let me know asap as I have taken a short position based on this and also res @ 200 DMA of 368, but today's telecom
policy looks positive for Telecom companies.
Let me know about your views.
Thanks in advance
Kailash
It's a falling wedge buddy! bullish WW.
Go Long with a SL @339 for targets of 400+.
Post#384
Quote:

Originally Posted by myamit


Hi Uttam,
This looks great. Btw, do you have any method that calculates times (days) by when target can be reached?
Also I could spot one with denabank chart with a target of 81+? Would you please have a look & confirm? Thank you.
Regards,
Dena Bank doesn't have volume spike @ point5. Stay away.
For Bharti Airtel too i would say stay smart with trailing SL order - 1 candle back.....I
...I like continuous markets and Indexes far
better for WW.

Post#385
Quote:

Originally Posted by KID_of_MARKET


Kamlesh Sir,
Crude is again touching bearish trend line.
No LL kid....let it go....
Post#387
Quote:

Originally Posted by sredhar


Hi Uttam,
Attached Gold daily chart. Prices today touching the BRL. Is it a point to go short?
Is this a valid setup? Pls comment.

For This trade Stop Loss is 1691.6.


Option 1. Sell as high as possible near 1675-80 is you get the price. That would better your Reward/Risk ratio.
Option 2. Sell when Gold comes out of the wedge and again retraces back to kiss the lower support trend line.
Post#389
Quote:

Originally Posted by uttamkamlesh


It's a falling wedge buddy! bullish WW.
Go Long with a SL @339 for targets of 400+.
Guys!...Airtel has hit today 380.2...so stay alert.
Move Stop Loss to 364 now.
Post#390
Quote:

Originally Posted by VJAY


Dear kamalesh,
How you convert these figures to (international gold price)...to our mcx as we trade in indian markets...pls through some
views....how you exactly trade MCX with international chart......
I hope you have access to live data from MCX as well as international broker.
Both prices move in sync....A High here would be in resonance with a High there. No need to convert at all for day trading.
For position trading use proportion logic.
I have already replied this in one post.

Post#391
Three SELLS today as per Uttam's Method of SELLING

Post#393
Quote:

Originally Posted by VJAY


Dear kamalesh,
If youexplain it (pr0poration logic) it would be nice....I checked that post but am not clear about it......
At 7:00 PM MCX made a High of 4196 in Crude.
Corresponding peak at the same time in $ is 85.07.
Now To convert $ price to Rupee i have a ratio (4196/85.07) to multiply with.
Now $86 would be equivalent to ....(4196/85.07)*86 = 4241.
Always use a filter of 3-5 points in your calculations.
Post#394

Post#396
WHEN A TRENDLINE GETS BROKEN....

Post#398
Guys! Uttam's Method of SELLING has not given me a single loss trade since the start of this thread. Patience is the Key i think.
th
If you still make losses....i am sorry for you!......
Post#399
Quote:

Originally Posted by adityasaraf007


Looks like WW is developing on 30min Chart of Gold...
Yes!....Refer #387 as well.....
Draw all important Trendlines to get better picture.
Thanks to MT4.....
Post#401
Quote:

Originally Posted by mdrafi67


-------------------------------------------------------------------HI Mr.Aditya great effort thank u.................i think as told by Mr.kamlesh for a WW pattern to form the VOLUME at point-5
point is
important.......can we confirm it even before its volume is expected............think ONLY Mr.kamlesh can clarify this
doubt........................once again thank u for the chart............
can we confirm it even before its volume is expected...........?????????//what
expected...........?????????//what do you mean/...
Post#407
Quote:

Originally Posted by VJAY


but still not made point 5 my view.....
Dear kamalesh,
Are we enter here using lower tf's?
Guys! INFY is making HH-HLs
HLs beautifully....
1. That means an uptrend got established.
2. In the morning [Open=High] in both Exchanges.
3. Very high volumes to support the move.

TREND is a much bigger pattern than WW.


My Experience 1 on WW:
Wolfe waves excel in the following market psychology.
(Markets don't know where to go):
1. Choppy markets
2. Near the end of a trend
3. Consolidations
Here NIFTY is clear to go up....driven by IT sector....(bullish WW).
So no way to short INFY.
Also stocks are discontinuous charts, big operators at work....so i feel little uncomfortable with them..
WW is basically movement of price through EPA line to achieve price equilibrium from a state of non-equilibrium
@Point 5.
Kamlesh Uttam

Post#408
Trade Coming: Apply Uttam's Method of SELLING on INFY on Weekly charts
I think shorting opportunity would come next week when NIFTY starts fighting 5200.
Post#413
TRADE COMING....CRUDE 60 min

Post#414
SaiVenkat is right....
Please learn to post good quality charts.
Now no need to enter NGas trade. Cream is already out.

Post#415

Post#417
Quote:

Originally Posted by VJAY


Dear kamalesh,
With normal bars crude chart(60) not showing HH...last trough.......Pls throw some light
I can see both ways....on MT4.
eSignal chart supports your observation.
eSignal is final.
Post#421
Quote:

Originally Posted by saivenkat


Dear Kamalesh..
From the charts that you posted.. i could see that you are using Heiken Ashi, and Trade sentiment index.. are involved.. now my
question to you is friend, how you make your entry.. as you used FIVE minute TF charts.. since the HA indicator repaints on
lower TF's and TDI sentiment index.. i feel lag the price movement greatly.. Is it that you confirm with Higher TF's before making
entries or Just Scalp based on 5 min TF itself or else use other indicators to confirm entry signals..
Just out of curiosity i ask.. and nothing beyond it.. Thanks
I use TDI & Stochastics for trading momentum along with HA,
of course with HTF, 05 min with 30 min......
I have not discussed any indicator on this thread till now.
I want guys using Trendlines and HH, HL etc...effectively as in
(a) WW and (b) UMS.
For entry in the chart you quoted please have a look at my summary of Uttam's Method of Selling(UMS)
It's the same thing all the time.
Post#423
Uttam's Method of SELLING.....Stop Loss HIT!!!....Hurrey!!!

Post#425
Quote:

Originally Posted by mdrafi67


-----------------------------------------------------------------------hello kamleshji.....thanks for the post...can we re-enter
re enter the trade once the price is below BRL...........or just exit the
trade...........once again thank u
I would leave the trade ...may be market has something else in the mind....
Be generous man...

..

Post#426
This Trade has hit $86.03...i am scaling out.....Thanx Crude....

Post#434
Today's volume action on INFY Daily charts conveys profit booking on longs has already started.
You may SELL it...with SL @ 3051.

Post#435
Quote:

Originally Posted by KID_of_MARKET


WW in INR JPY 30 Min (one that is traded in nse)
Kamlesh Sir, Is this volume spike enough?

1. We want to see spike at the candle which makes point 5...i.e. extreme in that area. Here it's not the case, even if
you compress the chart to 60 min.
2. More the convergence of 1-3-5 & 2-4
4 lines more is the profit potential and faster EPA progress......
Post#436
Quote:

Originally Posted by KID_of_MARKET


Gold weekly touching upper channel as well resistance at 1700
Gold Daily many resistances and overbought on daily
Also Uttam's method of selling comes in to play
Are gold tu to gaya kamse
Hey KID!.......your
your Gold trade is running into profits.....
Post#438
Quote:

Originally Posted by KID_of_MARKET


Sir It's Your method, which is running in profit.
I am just paper trading, No actual trades in commodities.
Keep a record of your paper trading in a diary. Include everything even your emotional description just like Jesse
Livermore did.
If we stay here in this thread with the same enthusiasm for 6 more months you would be quite ready with a solid
base for the long race.
Post#440
Quote:

Originally Posted by KID_of_MARKET


Sir, If we calculate money at risk for one lot from today's close then it will be (2684-3051)*125=45875
(2684 3051)*125=45875
Any solution ?
See..... INFY has cut its guidance for next quarter.
There is very little chance it would hit SL without making a HL, at least.
(a) Shorting tomorrow will be aggressive trading. You may sell it on Stochastics reversal as well. Also watch open
interest for big guys for a relaxed entry.
(a) Now if a Stop Loss is too much....we must leave
lea
the trade.
Paper trade it. It only adds to your experience.
There are numerous trades available.
Post#441

Today's TRADE in CRUDE OIL : 05 min


Blue spike (pre-penultimate
penultimate candle) that you can see is due to release of US Crude oil inventories.

Post#442
By now Crude has made a Low of 83.50....
Trail with a Stop Loss order and completely exit at approximately 83.35......
Post#444
Quote:

Originally Posted by mdrafi67


hi kamleshji,
Its good to see u ......actually we were missing ur posts since morning.........any how today traded ur method in commodities
and YOU wont believe it that the results were mind blowing....................used NO INDICATOR........JUST TL and ofcourse WW
W
patterns...........u r a GEM like thing.........this credit goes to u..........MAY GOD BLESS U ....n i from the bottom of my heart
WISH U A VERY HAPPY TRADING LIFE AHEAD.......keep ROCKING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!CHEERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!A LL THE BEST!!!!!!!!!

'used NO INDICATOR'.............i like that

.....anyways Think of yourself after six more months....That should inspire you to work harder for each trade and
practice more Patience

Post#445
Quote:

Originally Posted by uttamkamlesh


By now Crude has made a Low of 83.50....
Trail with a Stop Loss order and completely exit at approximately 83.35......
Guys! Finally $83.35 exactly was made (coincidence) which i told to book profits....

Post#446

Post#452
Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleOne

@kamlesh
I am afraid your guess isn't correct. The above losing trade happened because you missed the rising bottom of the
wedge.
Please illustrate with a chart....i still can't see that way.
You are welcome to the thread.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#453
Quote:

Originally Posted by adityasaraf007


Crude 30min WW... Again it was posted earlier and time for Ex-Post Analysis...
However, there is some data difference between GCI MT4 and eSignal... GCI shows that Point 5 did take out the high of Point
3... Anyways, eSignal's data is final...
Kamleshji... your views on it...

Yes! it is Rising Wedge (Price Compression) and that too in an Overbought market. That's why the success.
Rising Wedge in an Overbought market is also called Three Little Indians as in Linda Raschke's Street Smarts book.
Without volume confirmation @5 let us not call it as WW.

Post#454
TODAY's WW in NIFTY

Post#456
HOW A POTENTIAL TRADE HAPPENS

Post#457
Aditya ....you should have included 1-3-5 BRL line from 4 hr chart which is the cause for price going south along
with the BRL coming from $1923 peak.
Your WW is also correct but larger picture gives you more confidence. Your Point 1 is at A.

Post#460
Quote:

Originally Posted by adityasaraf007


Thank you Kamleshji... We should also look at a Higher Time Frame.... As I was already looking at the 30min TF, I completely
forgot that Higher TFs do exist.... I am generally a 2min or 5min TF guy
more questions:

.... Anyways, learned something.... Okay, now a few

1. Have you previously observed, what I had mentioned in the 30min Chart regarding reducing our Target Price in case point 5
doesn't touch the 1-3 Trendline.... I have a gut feeling that this should serve well in the Long Run.....
2. The 180min Chart that you posted, doesn't have the Time Symmetry at all.... I have seen such charts in the manual by Bill
Wolfe that you had posted earlier.... But what has been your experience regarding the success ratio of such WW which doesn't
depict the Time Symmetry well enough
Hope you don't mind me asking such questions.... I am not new to WW... Had tried learning it earlier, but somehow couldn't
grasp it well enough..... Now that you are an experienced WW practitioner yourself, I would like to know and understand the
intricacies of this phenomenon well enough.....
Regards
1. That's good and subjective. You can practice it. But i wait for EPA hit only when other things support, market psychology etc.
Otherwise point 4 starts putting resistance unless it is a well-structured WW.
2. Time symmetry is essential. Otherwise success ratio becomes poor. I don't take those approximated trades. There are plenty
of trades to make money if you track 5-6 markets. Why to take junk ones?
Post#461
Quote:

Originally Posted by maknil


Hi Kamlesh,
In nifty, what do u figure out or analyse between 9.00 to 9.15 am session??

By 9:12 AM you get the open price of NIFTY.


Now analyze bull case as well as bear case.
If something fits in your strategy ?
Post#466
Quote:

Originally Posted by mdrafi67

Kamlesh Bhai..............IS IT A VALID WW PATTERN...............NEED UR VIEWS........THANK U

This is a channel Rafi.....Go through the manual 5 times...at least.


Post#467
Quote:

Originally Posted by KID_of_MARKET


L&T H&S
Which Neckline is correct? Orange one or Blue one?
IF Blue one is correct, then does L&T has broken trend line (a while ago) and completed pullback up to neckline? (then shorting
candidate now ?)

Orange one is the neckline.


We have discussed LnT earlier.
1380 was the entry price.
It had previous Low at 1300 and when NIFTY started recovering short covering in LnT started after hitting 1300 and now to
1400.
Still LnT is very weak stock. If at all NIFTY starts failing 5200 one may sell it.
Post#468
Quote:

Originally Posted by KID_of_MARKET


Infosys TL 1 (pink one) is far, TL 2 (orange one ) is crossed today,
and TL 3 (Blue one) is just touched today.
Whether TL 3 is valid or not ?
If it is not, then due to TL 2 Crack, does Infy travel to TL 1 ?

Drawing all should be a habit.


Now TL 2 has failed to hold on weekly basis, let us wait for the TL3 Then finally TL1.
KID...stay cool....market would itself whisper what to do in a week or two.....
Post#469
These are the four types of Trend lines and when each one is important.
Please note BRL-T2 (Overbought market) is important for Bearish WW
and BSL-T2 (Oversold market)) is for Bullish WW.

Post#471

Post#473

Post#475
Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleOne


Sorry, Kamlesh. I was just going through various threads last night, and came upon yours. I don't trade in
commodities, nor do I follow them. Just saw your chart and your comment on it. Couldn't resist to butt in (and now
I am paying for the trespassing!

I am aware that most of us have standard 'wedge' patterns in mind. No wonder you guys didn't see the one I was
talking about. What is wedge anyway? Well, by rough definition, any two continuing lines in a plane, moving in the
same direction, will create one if their angles are converging. As simple as that.
I am afraid I don't have access to crude oil chart, so I drew the one I saw (in green) in yours.
In 'trading' wedges, candles keep getting squeezed from either or both sides. That is, no room for high amplitude
waves. Decision point. If you are familiar with median lines (check two parallel, and one bisecting, white lines),
Demark's seq (or power of 9), then shooting through the trendline was on the cards anyway after getting the
supply side almost dried in previous two sharp down moves. Hence, the rising of the bottom within the boundry of
drawn wedge.
For confirmation, you can check the Stochs or RSI for positive divergence buildup. Also you may find huge volume
spikes under the drawn wedge. Normally this kind of drama happens when the big players decide to shoot through
the SLs or book profits on the high. And I guess the price must have sharply plunged later as the bearish Wolfe
pattern would have formed, leaving both small-time bulls and bears high and dry! Typical...
PS. Alright then. Paid for my last night's 'transgression'. Carry on with your good, selfless work. Best of luck.
"Well, by rough definition, any two continuing lines in a plane, moving in the same direction, will create one if their angles are
converging." ...........
Please check upper green line is Downwards and lower green line is Upwards.
Also, i believe definition should not be 'rough' otherwise it would not be defining anything, which is what it should
do.
In this instance also rough approximation lead to incorrect pattern recognition.
Following is the link to access crude oil chart for your convenience.
http://quotes.esignal.com/esignalpro...chart.studies=
Please see if "And I guess the price must have sharply plunged later as the bearish Wolfe pattern would have formed, leaving
both small-time bulls and bears high and dry! Typical." came true. as i cannot see any bearish WW set up.
Anyways...Best Wishes!.

Post#476
@Saivenkat and
@Rafi
Dear friends, Please get the original manual for Wolfe Waves from Bill Wolfe himself. There is a lot more to WW.
I have already provided the link.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#478
Theorem 12: TREND is the BIGGEST pattern. Trend lines the BIGGEST indicator.
Theorem 13: Trend REVERSAL takes multifold force as compared to Trend CONTINUATION.

Post#479
CRONIMET is in full momentum....Made a high of 135....i bought at 104.

Post#480
DISH TV has started moving up....I bought it at 74.......made a high of 83.7

Post#481

Post#483
Quote:

Originally Posted by asoka_2009


Sir plz. suggest the latest free software available in charting TA in excel format.
I do not get your query..
Excel itself is a software but not the latest.
I use MT4 and MT5.
Post#491
Quote:

Originally Posted by adityasaraf007


Copper 30min Conservative WW:
Yes! and it's working too....right now Copper is weaker than Gold, Silver or crude....
Post#495
Quote:

Originally Posted by winsomecapital


Thanks dear
But in GCI, I am unable to set Stochastic Setting - (8,3,4) as per pride strategy.
Please tell me demo id link which have above said settings.
thanks
Double click on the indicator and put your parameters.
Read Pride's thread, it has all been discussed there.
Post#496
Quote:

Originally Posted by sredhar


Hi Kamlesh,
Is this still a valid sell? Today Gold is at $ 1685.
Rgds
Yes! Gold is now at 1664.
See no trade can be 100% only highly probable trades.
Post#497

@Aditya
Take extreme points while choosing 1, 2, 3 and 4 as shown above.
Post#499

Post#500

Post#505
Quote:

Originally Posted by myamit


Hello Friends,
See below daily chart of Uniphos. Is this valid WW?
Regards,
Yes! it is a valid WW. Its has a mini-WW
WW from 3-4.
3
So, highly likely to hit EPA line.
Post#506
Quote:

Originally Posted by myamit


Hello Uttam,
Is this a valid WW formed on nifty 5 min chart?
Regards,
No! This is not a WW.
Go through the manual thoroughly.
Post#507

Post#509
Quote:

Originally Posted by myamit


See below MCX version of above chart. As I could not draw 150 min, I took 30 min chart.
Uttam: Please see if this is correct.
Regards,
Yes!..it is correct.
Post#511
Quote:

Originally Posted by VJAY


Dear kamalesh,
Today I got strange problem in my DEMO trading inGold on MT4 of GCI...let me explain it...
I shorted gold 1659.04 @time23.55(GCI terminal time)....then put stop @1661.83(5 tf pivot high+filter of .10)...but my stop hit
@ time00.02 ...but that price never came as per chart ...only came after 25 min after my stop hit
...now am confused...how
this big stop taken when price never came near it ?
Then how can we put stops if these things happen.....I hope this problem not comes in our commodity market...
Throw some light on this
Also please explain how you came this stoploss of 91.16 for Crude?
Stop loss problem is from broker's side, GCI people.
Please post a mail to them. They would reply to that how this happens.
Regarding 91.16.
See on 13-09-2011 crude made a high of $90.52. Now add 0.5 to it as filter = 91.02. since 91 is a number resistance give more
filter to it 91.16.
Now if crude hits this SL means we have to turn bullish on it.
Post#512

Post#513

Post#517
Quote:

Originally Posted by Easytrader


Hi Kamlesh,
Please suggest a broker of online trading for Gold I am new to live trading for Gold and i am following Gold on paper for quiet
long time so what will be your suggestion for choosing a good broker. There are lot of them in the market and i am confused so
please let me know your opinion which one you think is good as far as customer support ease of trading software & brokerage
etc.
Your suggestion is always welcome.
Thanks
I have found Angel Broking (currently with) better than Motilal Oswal(Previously with).

Post#518

Covered at 4251.
Net Profits: (4399-4251-2) x 3= 44k....while i was sleeping!.
Post#519

Post#521

Guys! This is the updated diagram.


Memorize it.
WW and UMS/UMB are enough to give you 5 trades a week at least.
Abbreviations:
UMS/UMB are Uttam's Method of Selling/Buying
WW is Wolfe Wave.
Post#527
Quote:

Originally Posted by mdrafi67


SPOT SILVER HAS FORMED A WW PATTERN...............NEED
PATTERN...............NEED MORE VALIDATION FROM PRACTIONERS...........................
CHEERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MR
-------------------------------------------------------------"IF I FALL MAY NOT BOUNCE BACK BUT MARKET ALWAYS DOES"
DOES
WW Rule: Rafi...Out of EPA line and 1-3--5
5 line one should be making +ve angle with the horizontal and the other
one negative.
Check red line. poor drawing!....Though trade is correct and it's success is supported by a double bottom on HTF.
HTF
Post#531

Post#533
Quote:

Originally Posted by hills_5000


Hi Uttam.. I hope you didnt mind replying to a question posed to you about the EPA line query...
Next...do explain the magic bit.. how much of a target should we expect..
Is any question pending?....Pl. quote again.
We enter with any indicator (i use Stochastics) and keep on trailing SL order (2-candles back at least) and wait for
the market to near next resistance/support and tighten our stop. In this case BSL-2 (arrow down) is my target or
market hitting SL.
Maximizing profits is equally important as a right entry.
I think my profit booking is also improving with time and safety margin.
All thanks to Robert Miner!...
Post#534
Guys! This is Version 1.0 of this important diagram.
Few examples already posted.

Post#536
Quote:

Originally Posted by VJAY


Dear kamalesh,
Educomp on buy?....Now if it's ok then how can we enter ...it's @ exact point or on smaller tf's ?
Please guide how we enter when we got any of your patterns ....
Dear Vijay....It's a SELL not a BUY.....
First Question is What's the Weekly Trend?
You Got it..

...

When Weekly and Daily both TF's match we trade....


It's a bear market man....also Educomp has to fix some fundamental problems.
Post#537

Crude has made a Low of 85.04 on MT4......


Post#553

Post#554
Quote:

Originally Posted by vivek266

Copper 60 min shows inverse Head & shoulders pattern


Draw BRL on Closing basis. That would help you.
Post#555
Quote:

Originally Posted by adityasaraf007


Ex-Post Analysis of WW on Copper:
Although we would have been Stopped out earlier.... But still for academic purposes... WW achieved the Target within a
reasonable Time...
For someone who didn't trail his stops.... this WW made him richer by a whooping 10% in a span of just 4 days..

Aditya...i have shown already at least thrice that when a trend line breaks market reverses back to it to get
bounced off again to confirm its action of trend line break , so why should anyone put SL order to get stopped out
which is the right time to enter in fact. The upper tail of the candle you are seeing in enclosed box there is the
handiwork of Big Boys.....This phenomenon is very frequent one.
Post#556
Quote:

Originally Posted by adityasaraf007


Update on Gold 60min Bullish WW:
BSL is still holding up... Copper Bearish WW achieved its target today.... Crude Bearish WW achieved its Target yesterday....
Bearish Sentiments have come to a pause/halt.... Stage looks set for Gold to achieve the Bullish WW Target of ~1670....

Your trade is going great guns..$1647 achieved with HH-HL


HH
patterns...promising..
Post#557
Quote:

Originally Posted by VJAY


EPA=expected achievable price......dioganal line shows on WW pattern is EPA line
one more is there but not using it ...
ETA=expected achievable time......
@VJAY and all......
It's Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) and Estimated Price at Arrival
(EPA).
Please go through the manual again.
Buddy! you must be razor sharp in concentration while learning trading.
I read the manual 7 times in two days and drank all of it!!
Why should anyone else not do the same if aspiring for a million dollar job ahead?

Post#558
Quote:

Originally Posted by Kenn6eth78


I don't trade any of these commodities as of now but it is really heartening when you see someone put up a post like this
explaining their system instead of the "Buy XXX at 1234" posts you usually see on the commodities section.
Please go through the whole thread. You would enjoy it more.
Post#559
Quote:

Originally Posted by adityasaraf007


Rafi Sahab..... we cannot say anything about what would happen after the Target of WW is achieved...
achieved I have seen
some of the Trades which have continued in the direction of the Trend even after the Target is achieved.... So, nothing can be
said for certainty if there would be Short Term Correction or not.... However, in some the recent WWs I have observed that price
pr
tends to reverse after hitting the Target.... Anyways, Kamleshji is in a better position to discuss
discuss his observation about this....
Regarding a new WW after the break of TL.... I cannot see it....
.... Can you please post the Chart with markings...
You are absolutely right and i like your 'Sanyam'(balance)
'
in the analysis.
that means say only what you can prove with logic not a single letter extra.

In trading accuracy and discipline matters, otherwise years of profits vaporize in few months.
Post#560
Quote:

Originally Posted by adityasaraf007


Kamleshji... in the recent past we have seen the action of Wolfe Waves and now I guess everyone following this Thread would
appreciate its power....
However, I would like you to please discuss about where to place the Initial Stops and how should we trail it.... You had earlier
posted this about trailing SL...
Aditya...Pl. go through the WW manual again and get Bill's idea on Stop Loss.
Also, go through the book Street Smarts and see what Linda Raschke says about Stop Loss on WW.
Then we can discuss it better.

Post#561
Quote:

Originally Posted by VJAY


Thanks kamalesh,
So we look trades only in line with higher trend?..eg.here educomp down on weekly...but in daily now made HH & HL...so we
avoid that bullish TL?so we avoid buying here.....Please throw some loght more

....

So we look trades only in line with higher trend?....YES!!.....always


but in daily now made HH & HL........They all would die down soon....
For BUYING stocks in bear market you need charts like Dish TV and Cronimet in Weekly charts.......That is High
Amplitude Swings on HTF....Bull markets of their own.
Post#562
Quote:

Originally Posted by NANDAMAD


Gold is traded in troy ounce which is +31.1034 gm. Sir can you tell me what is
the silver unit traded and where to find equivalent to it. Is it the same as
31.1034 gms. pl explain.
No idea...you may Google it out.
Post#564

Post#566
Quote:

Originally Posted by adityasaraf007


Yes!!!!! I get your point..... When we get the Retest... it does make the move more meaningful and does gives us more

confidence about its success.... I am still in learning stages, so these points do sometimes slip off my mind.... You won't find me
repeating the same mistake again....Thank You!
But... we did get an unfavourable move to the extent of almost 5%.... This is a huge move.... If you did trade it.(did not take)..
Please share how did you handle it...
Did you close the position after the break of sideways move and re-entered again after successful retest?..........Answered
below

No luck... Just paper trading and making virtual money... Don't have a Commodities Account yet

......I know that already

Let me guess what you are referring to Bill's idea... Are you referring to drawing the lines from point 3 and point 1 which are
parallel to the line 2-4.....
So, do you place the Stops around the line drawn from point 1........No comments now!
No idea about Linda Raschke's book.... Is it freely available on the internet?....YES!!
Regards
(a) First way to enter:
In a highly Overbought (All bulls tired) market sell above 1-3-5 line itself.
(b) Second way to Enter:
Let point 5 be made above 1-3 line then in the next candle in the same TF volume must reduce. Then after volume
confirmation you may enter.
(c) Third way to enter:
After 2-4 line is broken....but here you need to trail your SL order because market has to retest the Trendline 24 (assume by default).
(d) Fourth way to Enter:
When retest of the Trendline 2-4 occurs.
and vice-versa for Oversold markets......but I am more comfortable beaing a bear

!....

Post#568
Quote:

Originally Posted by adityasaraf007


So... Just take the example of recent WW on Copper..... we got a huge move of 5% just to retest the trendline of 2-4.....
Now... suppose we enter as soon as point 5 is made (I guess this is the way you enter)..... so do you let that unfavourable move
of 5% happen to you.... You keep the initial SL intact...
.....
Copper Case:
See Point 4 is already a Resistance for the EPA line as discussed by Bill... so here i start unloading and only 1/3rd
positions i carry for EPA hit.
Since for me TREND is the biggest pattern of them all (WW is not a Trend changer pattern at all) and i assume a
trend to be in tact unless proved otherwise so a strong rebound is very likely, assumed by default (See what crude
did just now).
So trailing SL order on rest of the positions is the only way forward.
Crude Case:
See what crude did, after the trendline break it made a Low of 84.22 but then comes back to bang the trendline at
88.88
.
So, I have closed all my positions yesterday morning itself at 85.6.
Now, i have entered again, idea is trend line break not WW...Stop Loss $90.16 is enough.
Post#571
Quote:

Originally Posted by mdrafi67


--------------------------------------------------------------------

Hi kamleshji,
when the trendline is broken should we look in the same TF or move on the HTF to see weather the broke is a fake
or real one. Are there any chances of "FAKE" break of the TL.. If so is any any possibility to check its confirmation.
Just being a learner asked out of curiosity as question may seem a little bit stupid. hope u will
reply..........THANQ........CHEERS!!!!!
FAKE or REAL only market would tell later on....HTF is always welcome and draw all valid trendlines then make
decision.
Experience would make you better day by day.

Post#573

Post#574

Now, Crude Oil has got trapped between a Bullish Support Line (BSL-T1, white) and a Bearish Resistance Line (BRL(BRL
T2).

More interesting thing is that both lines are converging

...Now, you guess what should happen.....Let's see!!

Post#575
Guys! You must be wondering why in my posts i am more focussed towards Crude Oil.
(a) Crude Oil market is the biggest (less manipulable), most liquid (a TA trader's delight) market in commodities.
(b) It's weight-age on commodity indexes is highest approx. 35%, making it a leader.
(c) It has good volatility(a TA trader's delight). Billionaire traders are active in it.
All the above reasons make it the most desirable market for learning Technical Analysis which works best in the
less manipulable markets.
Now, as there is always a Bear Camp and a Bull camp of Big Boys in the markets.
We try to trade with the winning camp.
Post#577
In this post i am going to discuss importance of Reward/Risk ratio and proper profit booking to make trading
profitable.
What is Trading?.............Trading is a statistical Business.
Any average trading system or pattern can perform with 60-70% probability in the hands of an average trader. That means out
of 100 trades that he makes he gets profit in 60 trades rest 40 are in loss.
For example, trading 05 min chart of Crude Oil at MCX, he has a rule that 'if my SL is more than Rs. 2000 away from my entry I
would not take a trade', so maximum losses that he would accumulate would be (2000+100)x40 = 84000. Now, table below
shows how profit booking plays the most crucial factor in making you profitable.

That means even if you hit 60% of the time right but if you book 1000 for 2000 at risk, you would blow up your account sooner
or later.
Conclusions:
1. Follow the system where you can figure out your Risk and Reward before entering the trade.
For Example For WW (Target is Point 4 [at least] and then EPA line) and UMS (Target at least previous LL).
2. Reward/Risk ratio must be more than 2. Less than 2, trade is junk one!!
3. Try trading with at least 2 units, i.e. one for Short term(Exit at point 4, previous LL) and
one for Long Term (Trail with SL order and wait for EPA line and further crack in UMS)........More illustrations in Robert Miner's
book.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#579
Quote:

Originally Posted by krab


I am eagerly waiting for PDF compilation of your methods
balaji
That would take time. Please go through the thread regularly.
That would help you always.
Post#580
Quote:

Originally Posted by KID_of_MARKET


Sir, can't understand 1-3-5 line of WW, I think it is 2-4 line of previous ww
and how can it be resistance ? (after completion of ww)

All lines 1-3-5 and 2-4 lines are at first Trendlines.


Resistance is provided by red Trendline which was 2-4 line of previous WW (bearish one).
Post#581
@ KID
1. have you shorted INFY?....
2. Pl. collect all theorems of this thread along with corollaries at one place.
Post#583
Quote:

Originally Posted by KID_of_MARKET


@Kamlesh sir
1.
No, didn't have confidence for shorting infy.
I think, it has crossed the second BR trendline as well.
Sir, What is your view?
2.
I go through all the posts in this thread once in 15 days.
1. It's fate would be similar to NIFTY.
Better we leave it because a LL as target is not probable, making our Reward/Risk ratio poor. It is coming off its 50%
retracement of it's previous bull move.
2. I thought you would post the collection here for all of us.
Post#584

Post#585

@Aditya,
1. Could you find out Nickel chart on eSignal.com?
2. Let us find out source of Open Interest on Crude Oil on daily closing basis, at least.
Post#587
Quote:

Originally Posted by KID_of_MARKET


I can try to do that, but if images is copied in word then quality of that image does not remain good , sometimes a person can't
see the details of the chart.
No images required.
Just copy-paste all sentences and post. That's it.
Post#595

Post#596

Post#597

Post#598
Quote:

Originally Posted by sheethas0471


Hi Kamlesh
For the last six months I lost money in commodity market due to lack of awareness about international market and lost my hope
in trading. Recently I noticed your post and following it. Now making decent profit from commodities especially from crude oil
because of you. From the bottom of the heart I am thanking you for the support. You are one among the rare persons in open
forums.Pls continue the support to people like me
They say,
Abhi to ibtada hai rota hai kya...Aage Aage dekh hota hai kya...
......
Let the bull market come some day then we will rock with Elliot Wave.
Dear Friends, i am enjoying sharing knowledge here and have vision to create a team of at least five guys on this

thread who would consistently update about upcoming high probability trades in NIFTY, Crude Oil, Gold, Silver,
Copper, Stocks etc..with solid reasoning and clarity.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#604
Quote:

Originally Posted by VJAY


Dear kamalesh,
Thanks for sharing your methods and all insights for the method also hints&trades giving us before that trades....I know its not
enough only a thanks...Realy you are giving good teachings to us....
May be its silly Q ...but am still ahave doubt thats why am asking it....you said when you take trades took it with line with
HTF...here you took 5 min trf trade selling....Which higher tf you look when trade 5?...
VJAY.... When i said that in earlier post it was regarding Educomp. HTF momentum is no doubt mandatory variable
to look at while trading stocks. We need more variables supporting while trading stocks than commodities e'g.
Daily and Weekly Momentum together.
This set up was self sufficient but check 1 hr chart of Crude Oil @post 574.... Red line was the immediate resistance
at $88.88 (here Point O) and hence the extra confidence. Having an eye on HTF is the best way to Filter your
trades.

Post#605
Quote:

Originally Posted by adityasaraf007


Kamleshji.... most of the times.... Charts speak better than words...
That is no doubt true but question is who would bell the cat?..
Post#606
Quote:

Originally Posted by adityasaraf007


For someone using eSignal... click this link and then navigate to "Symbol Directory and Reference List" in the lower right
column.....
This provides the symbols of the securities available from various exchanges...
Somehow link is not working for me. Pl. help.
Post#607
@VIJAY
Please use Reuters charts. They are clearer and more accurate than MT4 data.
Also write your arguments etc.
All charts are conceptually correct/going right but i am most of the times afraid of stocks
just because they are prone to news and operators manipulations.
Post#610

Post#611

Post#612

Post#613

Post#617
Quote:

Originally Posted by Easytrader


Hi Kamlesh,
Please look into this chart and see if the LH LL is on the right side as i was tracking the crude. Am still trying to make things look
better practise and paper drawing going on things will be better next time.

No Dear....it's poor labeling right now we need rhythm in price and time.
Collect all examples on this method in this thread and watch them in slide show then you would get your eyes set better.....
Post#618
Quote:

Originally Posted by KID_of_MARKET


Is this WW on Reliance 60 min chart ?
Yes! KID ...you got it right....
Post#619
For Trendlines the convention i am going to follow would be:
1.
2.
3.
4.

White lines :.....Weekly TF


Yellow Lines:....Daily
Red.....04 hr TF
Green Lines:.......01 hr TF

Post#621

Post#622
Quote:

Originally Posted by KID_of_MARKET


I have not shorted yet, If price opens nearer to close , can it be shorted tomorrow?
Sell it at 849 approx....It is a very good SELL...follow up move is highly likely.
Stop Loss 855.6.
Post#624
Guys!...on Saturday and Sunday i have played with Trendlines on different charts and was bowled over by the findings which has
lead me to further my research on Trendlines. Reading text book by John Magee Chapter 14 and 15....
From now onwards i shall be purely Price Action trader. No secondary indicators on my charts. Straight lines only

Post#626

...

Post#627
Quote:

Originally Posted by adityasaraf007


Kamleshji, have you ever played with Horizontal Lines..... I have been drawing horizontal lines on Minifty Chart for about 4-5
months and the accuracy is awesome.... According to me, the definition of Support or Resistance is the place from where
aMAJOR activity begins or halts..... And those Horizontal Lines, capture these spots on a consistent basis.... And the funny part
in case of Horizontal Lines is that I don't have to update them often.... I don't even remember the last time when I drew a new
Horizontal Line
later on....

..... I would post some of the charts of Minifty if you want..... I don't have them right now, would post them

Regards
Surely, i would wait for you to unfold the magic before all of us.

Post#629

Post#632
Quote:

Originally Posted by hills_5000


is there a W on crude hrly chart jjust completed? EPA 86.5 ? Uttam would you pls confirm?
Plz don't take any trade ever unless i give you Stop Loss.
Loss
Well it's not a WW...stay
stay away from shorting a TREND......Crude
TREND......Crude is making HHs....Let the bulls tire first....
Post#633
Quote:

Originally Posted by mdrafi67


-----------------------------------------------------------------------kamlesh bhai,
copper broke its major resi@3.42 and made a high of 3.467..........so can we expect the price to track back again to
the trendline as shown above.................so from this can we conclude that copper has assumed BULL
RUN..........need ur views...........thank
iews...........thank u.......cheers!!!!!!
Copper has formed double bottom on Daily charts.
No point in shorting further. Only trade long if at all.
S&P500, DJIA have crossed resistance and rallying due to strategic short-covering.
short
I think if RBI raises rates by 25 bps then we are going to rally tomorrow in NIFTY in second half just to match
international markets.
5200 is nearly certain to be conquered......Let's
.....Let's see.
Post#639
Quote:

Originally Posted by abhi_neth


Sir. Can you pls tell me which broker is offering Copper charts.
Thanks
Pl. go through the whole thread.
It all has been covered already.
Post#640
[QUOTE=mdrafi67;599819]copper
copper on daily charts , think has formed an WW pattern......and
......and the "double bottom" gives
more confirmation about this and with "fibo retracement" also it give yet another confirmation.............need WW
practitioners views regarding this........................CHEERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This is a poor WW. It has very
ry little probability of hitting EPA line.
Why?...........Read Bill's discussion on Sweet Zone.
Post#661
@ Aditya...
Develop the whole idea as a system to make high probability trades. Frame rules and then explain to all of us.
Right now not able to comprehend well.
Post#662

Quote:

Originally Posted by uttamkamlesh


Copper has formed double bottom on Daily charts.
No point in shorting further. Only trade long if at all.
S&P500, DJIA have crossed resistance and rallying due to strategic short-covering.
I think if RBI raises rates by 25 bps then we are going to rally tomorrow in NIFTY in second half just to match
international markets.
5200 is nearly certain to be conquered......Let's see.
Yesterday's post got validated by NIFTY as imagined with a High of 5211
Post#672
Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleOne


Nah, man, You made my day - thank you! I use H-lines myself. They are not very s*xy to look at like trendlines crisscrossing
hither and thither, but they give you the most flexible and hasslefree trading.
Funny, Uttam says in his post that he can't 'comprehend' the idea. Well...the bloody idea is simplicity itself!
I might have missed your post, Aditya, but for the few spare minutes I had late last night to check for PMs and surf the TJ a bit.
Came upon Kid's post regarding shorting Reliance, duly approved by Uttam. I was amused - thinking: Expiry day, all volatility,
trendlines would get torn like paper...on top, Reliance is the favourite kicking boy of the market operators. The picture is
complete. God save the Kid!
I object to your language/intention mentioning me in the post.
Please run at least one thread for a while (you have 0 threads started) before being a cause for closure.
1. "Came upon Kid's post regarding shorting Reliance, duly approved by Uttam."
You explanation is AFTER THE FACT......it's anybody's guess, nothing special in it.
My call was BEFORE THE FACT and in a stock in which a call on 1 hr TF was to be traded next day(discontinuous
chart).
I said to short it @849. It made Open=High at 853 and finally made a Low of 842.3. Not that bad.
I already have stated i don't like trading stocks unless they are trending in weekly TF making High Amplitude
Swings, HH-HL etc.
I supported KID knowing the fact he is paper trading and often more interested in stocks.
Note my 'BEFORE THE FACT' call on NIFTY in post #633. It came true word by word.
So, when NIFTY is crossing all crucial 5200 mark how can one sleep on Reliance.
Quote:

Originally Posted by uttamkamlesh


Copper has formed double bottom on Daily charts.
No point in shorting further. Only trade long if at all.
S&P500, DJIA have crossed resistance and rallying due to strategic short-covering.
I think if RBI raises rates by 25 bps then we are going to rally tomorrow in NIFTY in second half just to match
international markets.
5200 is nearly certain to be conquered......Let's see.
2. "Funny, Uttam says in his post that he can't 'comprehend' the idea. Well...the bloody idea is simplicity itself!
"
......Now, i request you to please run a fresh thread on it and produce a Comprehensive System capable of making
positive money with 'before the fact' calls. Let everyone including me 'comprehend the 'simplicity' of the idea
better.
FINALLY, i invite you for a healthy and open competition.
1. You give 10 live calls, i give 10 live calls, (minimum TF 60 min) all before the fact, with well defined Stop Loss,
Entry and Exit.
2. Reasoning optional for you, though i would explain everything.
3. All of these trades we will produce within 10 weeks.
4. Then we will calculate the percentage returns.
5. If you win you take the responsibility of the thread.
These 20 trades would benefit everyone following this thread
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#673

Wish You a very HAPPY DIWALI!!!....


Post#682

Post#690
@EagleOne
I hope you would agree that we are wasting our and others' time if we talk anything other than trading here. So, let the calls do
the talking.
I am concerned about the thread more than anything else. I have put a lot of time to it. Just want everybody, including you, to
enrich it.
Post#691

Post#692

Post#703
@Abhi_neth,
You are going good. I liked your posts.
Can your candles be slimmer, so that chart covers more candles and trend-lines.
Post#706
Quote:

Originally Posted by emailkailash


Hi Uttam,
If I remember correctly and observed then Nifty 5350-5400 should be the level where the Weekly Bearish trendline from last
Diwali is present, now there are bright chances that we see that level in next few sessions.
Now my question is, should shorts be considered as we approach the level or should we wait and see if that line is crossed with
strength.
A post to highlight the present trading opportunities will be highly helpful and appreciated.
Thanks
Kailash
Kailash...welcome to the thread.
well....Today's volume is very high that means huge short covering was the major feature of today's trading on US
GDP data more than expected and EU deal done to save Greece.
Well....Technically, NIFTY has crossed all the hurdles right now, its path to 5500 is clear now. It would hit that
mark sooner or later. But the Gap it has created today needs to be filled or retested by NIFTY only. When let's see
how it follows.
Regarding Bearish Resistance Line i would say should not hold for long as market has formed a double Bottom (so
UMS does not apply here) and remained stable in 5200 and 4700 range for three months. There is good support at
4700, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's fundamental analysis says so.
NIFTY Trade i would post in the coming posts.
Post#707
Guys!...Please create Google Alerts in your Gmail account about:
1. Warren Buffet
2. Jim Rogers
3. George Soros
4. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala
I have been following them since last one year, extremely beneficial activity.

You get news, articles, interviews etc.. on time, for free.


They talk sense and we must learn from them as much as we can.

Kamlesh Uttam

Post#708

Post#710

Post#714

Post#715
Quote:

Originally Posted by sheethas0471


Hi kamlesh

I am unable to see firt 5 bids and ask (total buyers and sellers) in GCI mt4.Could you help me?
I think not available.
Post#716
Quote:

Originally Posted by emailkailash


I was talking about the scenario which was posted in this message, Part-I has been played exactly, now it's INTERMISSION
time
Line"

, can you guide what happens next - "as per this scenario we are to go blw 4700 after kissing the Bearish Resistance

Kailash...i think now breaking 4700 would only be possible if at all recession becomes a reality. Probability for Part-II does not
appeal me now.
Post#718
Quote:

Originally Posted by emailkailash


So it means that final washout to 3800-4200 will not happen now and we will enter a fresh BULL MARKET once 5500 is cleared
on the upside.
Yes! you are right....move may be a roller-coaster ride, not very swift one but we should be bulls after the next correction, which
should halt before 5200.
Post#719

Post#720
Thread Statistics:
Start Date: 30 July
Views: 27000+
Posts: 700+
9000 views per month. Not bad. Cheers!...
Post#721
Why Trendlines are the Best Indicator?
There are numerous indicators for each category, Trend, Momentum, Oscillators and Volume indicators. Every
trader has his/her own on the chart.
But Trendlines are UNIQUE because they need only two points to draw and when market CONFIRMS it with point 3,
It becomes a must TRENDLINE present in chart of nearly every effective trader.
And where there is consensus among the traders there is a move in the market.

Post#725
Quote:

Originally Posted by vivek266


This is weekly chart of nifty and i used andrew's pitchfork in it and worked well.
Vivek...which software you are using?...
Post#726
Quote:

Originally Posted by pritam.obi


Now in NSEL trading is done in E-Gold
Gold ,Silver Copper and other commodities.Is there any Graph /tools to explorate the bull or
bear run.
Download MT4 from GCI Financial Ltd.

Post#727
Quote:

Originally Posted by mdrafi67


THIS IS A GOLD M-81 CHART...........IS GOLD STILL ON ITS BULL RUN???? THROW UR VIEWS AND
COMMENTS.....................

CHEERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MR
Good to see that green line in your chart.
Well ...Gold may slow down it's speed for a while and bounce off from a less steep trendline (see my posted chart
on Gold) but i think Trend is clearly up.
1662 is the first target.

Post#732
Quote:

Originally Posted by abhi_neth


In the chart the TL's have not been drawn correctly, they should always connect the swing lows in an uptrend. And the smaller
RED TL cannot be validated until there is an higher high.
In any case the larger TL is broken & at present it is a pullback rally to the broken TL. If there is a close above the broken TL &
the next bar doesn't break below it, then it is a bullish signal.
Seniors pls. confirm
You are absolutely correct.
Can you summarize all the rules you know about Trendlines.
I am working on it so that we have a comprehensive knowledge about Trendlines.
Post#733
Quote:

Originally Posted by murthyavr


Thanks Vivekji for the chart.
The above chart with timeline included would have been more revealing.. Please try to include that also in your future posts..
Thanks..
Murthy, i would like you to contribute all your knowledge about timelines.
I have very little insight in this tool but curious to learn it soon.
Post#734
Quote:

Originally Posted by hills_5000


So is this a valid W Uttam ?

Well i would not say it is a WW due to ambiguity of points 2, 4 but the idea of success of WW is present,
i.e., Price Compression and Falling Wedge in a Bullish Chart.
Post#736

Post#738
Quote:

Originally Posted by sredhar


Hi Uttam,
See attached Ranbaxy chart. Is this a valid WW developing? Even the 60m charts confirm this also the volume pattern isnt it?.
Thanks for your reply.
Hi Sredhar,
Compare your chart with this one from Reuters.

Yes!...this WW would give best trade at around 550 with volume confirmation.

Post#745
Quote:

Originally Posted by KID_of_MARKET


Uttam Sir,
If one can buy 5600 call now (one can get it cheap) and short 5500 call when nifty kiss BRL
what would be pros and cons of the same with the trade suggested by you ?
(For Education purpose only)
Both trades are different.
Your trade is more directional one, i.e. it needs NIFTY going up then coming down, but my trade only needs NIFTY expiring
below 5500, and both my calls expire worthless, i retain the initial premium collected.
Post#746
Quote:

Originally Posted by mdrafi67


-------------------------------------------------------------------hi Mr. abhi,
yes u r right, the TL was NOT drawn correctly, actually i was in a hurry to post it, as what i have drawn is a
COMMON SENSE TL not TOM DEMARKS TL...........missed the swing low.....any how later it became a useless TL as it
was broken, and where as the smaller RED line is concerned it denotes the TOM DEMARKS TL , it signifies
signi
the most
recent swing lows in an UPTREND. and for that it to be validated there is no need to form higher highs as its formed
during an UPTREND....ACTUALLY I WAS MORE CONCERNED HERE ABOUT THE CONJUCTION OF TWO TLs which
according to DEMARK was an significant
ificant SIGNALLING POINT.........any how need to wait till markets are opened till
monday, to confirm its trend............thanx for sharing.........CHEERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:th umb:-------------------MR
umb:
Which book by TOM D Mark is in discussion?...

Post#749

Post#750

This market Psychology is of confusion (Overbought markets)


and Big Boys are not going to buy more unless very supportive reasons are there.
Post#752
Quote:

Originally Posted by timepass


Excellent analysis, Uttambhai
and I am still looking at the M's and W's that you had posted earlier. I had always thought that an M with higher right shoulder
shoul
may mean a weak downtrend..
I am happy to see what you have quoted
Welcome to the thread.
Post#754
Quote:

Originally Posted by hills_5000


HI Uttam,

The last W. you would have shorted at point 5 , right ? it then went down and retraced all the way to point 7. Would have been a
failed W right since SL would have been hit seeing the price reverse and head towards point 7.......YES! this is a loss making
trade. But volume spike at Point 7 would again give a trade and when WW forms with 1-3-5-7 it has higher chances
of hitting EPA, very common in commodities (e.g. latest WW on Crude, overnight trade.)
So with real money I dont think it would have worked for sure. It would have been a losing trade.
Next. Isnt there a W formed ( bullish one) and as of today the price is on its way upto the EPA?
just my observations

Post#757
@Kavima,
Welcome to the thread.
In one post i have provided a link to download the original Wolfe Wave manual. Please download it and go through it. That would
make things very clear.
Well this is not correct WW as 1-3-5 and 2-4 lines are not converging.
Your point 1 should be swing Low.
Post#758

Post#759
Guys!...Crude Oil is the best market to practice TA, i again stress it.
Please always keep a vigil on it.
Recently i finished a chapter on 'Trendlines in Action' from Edwards and Magee's Technical Analysis of Stock Trends,
9th Edition. It is a paisa-vasool chapter.
Post#760

Post#764
Quote:

Originally Posted by mdrafi67


----------------------------------------------------------------------GOLD VIEW..................
GOLD FORMED A SMALL WW PATTERN ON M-15 CHARTS...........OUR EPA GOT NAILED @1710$..........WHILE WE
WERE SLEEPING IN INDIA..........COOL.......
[/B]
I started smiling seeing your post, congratulations!....feeling happier than when i make profits for myself. Good going Rafi!...
Post#766

Post#767
Quote:

Originally Posted by hills_5000


Hi Uttam,
This valid? Nifty 4H chart. its coming down from a point 7.
Yes it is valid WW pattern with volume confirmation and also today island reversal signal given. But the problem is where to
place Stop Loss. Reward/Risk is poor.
Post#768

Post#769
Guys!
This is the new thread i have started for a query on long term investing.
Please share your thoughts in it.
http://www.traderji.com/equities/616...njhunwala.html
es/616...njhunwala.html
Post#770

Note: Hammer is just forming, let it close to confirm it.


Guys!...I have been able to locate every important turning point of Crude since it's move from $75 to $95 through Trendlines
alone.
(a) Trendlines Type-1 and Type-2.
(b) Important Swing High/Lows......That's it!!!
Post#773
Quote:

Originally Posted by rjpatil


Hi Mr Kamlesh,
Excellent thread. All good learning stuff here.
Can you please guide, how to input the data from international commodities in Amibroker ? As you said in earlier posts, data
from MCX is not useful, then how to get international market data in our TA software ?
Regards
I use MT4....and eSignal.com charts.
Post#774
Quote:

Originally Posted by comworld


Thanks KamleshJi, for your fantastic view for Crude oil.
I made good amount in crude yesterday and it is all by you only.
Keep up the good work and we need your guidance always.
Congrats!...and please work even harder to keep your profits with you.
Keep on tracking the thread.
Yesterdays long is already in 3%+ profits.
Post#775

Post#776

Post#778
Quote:

Originally Posted by data_pradeep


Hi,
Any body plz tell me where can I get Commodities past data.
Use MT4 and eSignal.com charts. Read the thread from start.
Post#781
Quote:

Originally Posted by myamit


Hello Uttam,
Could you please give these levels in MCX terms? Also is this trade materlized?
Regards

Whenever price hits my required level in MT4, i execute market order in MCX. Place SL from Swing/High Low in
MCX. That's it. No calculations etc.
Post#787
Quote:

Originally Posted by mdrafi67


SILVER VIEW.....................
SILVER ON M-240
240 CHARTS HAS HOPEFULLY FORMED AN ELLIOT WAVE PATTERN AND THE NEXT C-IMPULSIVE
C
WAVE IS ON ITS WAY.............HAVE A LOOK AT IT AND THROW UR COMMENTS............THANK
U............CHEERS!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dear Rafi....In EW point 2 can never be below point 1.


Post#788
Quote:

Originally Posted by vivek266


Wolfe wave in SBI
It should be better seen in weekly TF, conclusions from there would be better.
Post#791

Post#795
Quote:

Originally Posted by adityasaraf007


Crude 30min WW:
At last found something to post..... Couldn't spot any WW after Diwali
Did you notice it is well structured WW?...
Post#797
Quote:

Originally Posted by adityasaraf007


Are you talking about Time Symmetry.... Although it's not that good but overall I think it should work..... Also look at the
symmetry in the price structure of Wave 1 and Wave 3
When there is a mini-WW between point 3 to 4 , we call it well structured one.
Post#799
Crude move has been too fast 1.5%....I am exiting....
Post#800

Post#803
Quote:

Originally Posted by hills_5000


Guys,
Google GCI MT4. Once you select the website then open a demo trading account there. You will have to down load MT4 /MT5
from there. Install it. Choose 50k/100K USD demo trading money in your account.
Therefater you will have access to gold , silver , crude , copper live 24 hrs charts. Lots of features. Ask if any query. You also
have nifty , RIL, SBIN , TataMotors , Wipro , etc . Plus US indices and European indices.
Good Luck.
Guys!...From the bottom of my heart i want to thank Hills_5000 for introducing MT4 to this thread and me. Seeing
previous posts i think he thought that i am missing this free resource and without anybody asking for it he made
the post, thank you man!!. Trendlines from all TFs simultaneously present in the chart is a boon to me, only because
of MT4.
MT4 has tremendously increased my performance. Before the start of the thread i was using 5 min delayed data on
cx-portal.com and 10 min delayed data on eSignal.com.
Thanks to all of you Guys visiting/participating in the thread!..helping you i organized my thoughts and got a lot
more clarity than ever on UMS, which is creation of this thread itself and i have got validation for UM of SELLING in
the Edwards and Magee's book. I would soon compile the method.
One more lesson i have learn't (rather revised), Sharing knowledge only enhances it. Earlier i had different
thoughts you know what...

Cheers Guys!...keep on working...i love your success.


Kamlesh Uttam
Post#817
Quote:

Originally Posted by myamit


Important question here is how do we know with relative surity about reversal (to enter in trade).... Also it may go to altogether
different high and make these WW invalid...
Yes it can do that anytime. Trading WW needs more experience than any other pattern like H&S but yes it performs very well in
NIFTY (being index), i know that. Also for it Reward/Risk ratio is very good.
For me Psychology of the market is very important to get WW right. When market is trending no pattern would
work because no pattern is stronger than TREND. When it is not trending WWs would have far more probability to
succeed.
Since crude had been able to defend its long term channel since $75 at around $89-90 it was likely to test at least $95 before
drawing any conclusions that is why i exited yesterday.
Pl. check my this week's charts of Crude.

Post#820
Quote:

Originally Posted by mdrafi67


COPPER VIEW.....................................
COPPER ON M5 CHARTS HAS FORMED AN WW PATTERN.............AND A WELL-STRUCTURED ONE................FORMED
ANOTHER SMALLER WW INSIDE IT................EPA CAN BE HIGH PROBABLY BE ACHIEVED...........VOLUME
CONFIRMATION, PRICE COMPRESSION AND EVEN FIBO LEVELS CONFIRMS IT...............

Rafi...If you join 1-3 with Swing Lows you would not get WW.
Post#822
Quote:

Originally Posted by mdrafi67


kamleshji, r u talking about the bigger ww or the smaller one....yes smaller one needs some more correction i hope,
but the bigger one is right at its place..............
Yes i am talking about the smaller one. Always consider Swing High or Lows for points 1 and 3.....
Post#824
Quote:

Originally Posted by comworld


Kamleshji, what is your view on copper?
Is it good to buy at these level for one month?
In these volatile times i cannot BUY anything for positional.
'No' from my side.
Post#827

Post#828
@Aditya,
I liked all your analysis, it's flawless in the post. Keep it up dear!
Post#829
Guys! Let us search for a very good head and shoulder indicator for MT4.
Post#832

Post#849
Quote:

Originally Posted by timepass


Uttambhai, SL hit in crude ?? I just saw nymex crude high of 95.29 ??
Yes dear!...SL hit....
Lesson: Trend is the strongest pattern.
(actually TREND channel was still intact which defeated even dual WW with a number resistance at $95 and Daily
BRL)....Anyways, it was a high probability trade, we take them courteously.
Post#852
Quote:

Originally Posted by adityasaraf007


Kamlesh ji..... a bouncer from me...... give your suggestions....
The following is the WW on 300min Chart of Crude:
We see that there is no symmetry w.r.t time, however there is a little bit of symmetry in terms of Structure of the Waves....
Personally, I don't like to trade such WW's where Time Symmetry is as poor as this one....
Now, some points which are compelling me to take this trade:
1. We had a WW within the Waves 4 & 5... It's target is almost around 89.....
2. We had a good run up from the levels of 75 and 38% Retracement comes around 89 too....
3. Look at the daily charts.... 96 has been the Strong Support in the months of March & May.... Break of this Support in the
Month of August took the Crude to the levels of 75 and it gave a Double Bottom there....
Kamleshji.... tackle this bouncer from me......
Just because of the above mentioned points I have not yet done the ex-post analysis of 30min WW on Crude, who knows we
might just learn something about placing SL....
PS: I am just paper trading Commodities
Aditya,
1. TREND channel is at work, so we need to be friend with it.

2. Also, market psychology is that now it is active buying that is driving crude. Bulls should tire at around $100
now.

3. Well pattern is poor as a WW.

4. We see mini-WW from point 3-4 not 4-5.

Post#853
Quote:

Originally Posted by NTrader42


Hello Kamlesh
I have started reading your thread from the first post. I have completed 47 pages i.e first 450 posts, so more 400 plus posts to
go
Hope soon I can complete the rest and join the current discussions.
Thanks very much for such a nice resource for trading commodities on indian markets.
Welcome to the thread!...Good to hear that you are going through the whole thread.
Post#854
Quote:

Originally Posted by atulas1


Hey would anybody like to have all of Kamlesh Sirs' Posts in Word or Pdf???
I am compiling the same if anyone is interested do let me know. If anyone has already compiled please let me know so there is
no repetition.

Please upload it at some place like 4shared.com and provide us the link.
I myself need the compilation.

Post#855
Quote:

Originally Posted by NTrader42


Hello Kamlesh
Very Nice thread, I will be reading few important posts from you once again. Meanwhile will try to practice few of the things you
have given on this thread. Thanks for great work.
Is this a Valid WW on Copper Hourly Charts?
Current state, it has got support on BSL (type 1)
Thanks
PS: This is for MCX now will also try to see if similar pattern exists on the eSignal charts.
Yes it was a WW (as shown) but we don't always expect it to hit EPA line.
First Resistance to EPA : Trend line 2-4
Second Resistance to EPA : Point 4
Target : 1-4 line
We remain vigilant in booking profits. Go through the manual on WW.
Post#857
Quote:

Originally Posted by abhi_neth


Crude had been giving WW pattern on 30 min & 240 min. Twice there was reversal from 95 levels & both the times price found
support at 100 HEMA. So, IMHO, we should wait for breakdown of 100HEMA prior taking position to trade WW. Would like to
know Kamleshji's view on it.
Thanks
My view is: Now Crude is TRENDing up.
So we do not trade any WW against it. If we get any WW in any TF WITH the TREND we get a high probability opportunity.
Post#859
How to draw correct and precise Trendlines?
1. Draw a trendline as usual with two points of importance.
2. Now double click on the trend line.
3. Now put third point of trendline by dragging it to point 2 precisely.
Similarly you can draw horizontal lines for important swing Highs/Lows precisely by checking the level by putting
cursor on the line for few seconds at far left and at far right.
If you have got horizontal and trend lines correctly, you would be fascinated to see the market action

Post#860
Guys! you may download Trendline indicator from here.
TrendLines.mq4
It does not give exhaustive trendlines but i cross check my lines with it so that i do not miss any important one which others
may be considering.
Trendlines of type-02 are not given by it. That we have to draw.