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Capital Budgeting Techniques

Presented by

Muhammad Khalid Sohail

Lecture 5

Review:

Present Value

**Present Value is the current value of a future amount of
**

money, or a series of payments (single, un-even, same,

infinite), evaluated at a given interest rate.

**1. General Present Value Formula
**

(single):

PV0 = C/Fn / (1+i)n

or

PV0 = C/Fn (PVIFi,n) -- See Table

**2. Present Value (un-even C/F):
**

6-2

DF = PVIFi,n = 1 / (1+i)n

**3. a. Present Value (Annuity):
**

PVAn

Or PVAn

= C/F (PVIFAi%,n)

= C/F * [(1-1/(1+i)^n) / i ]

b. PVADn = C/F (PVIFAi%,n)(1+i)

4. Present Value (infinite series):

PVp = CF / i = (1 / i) * CF = DFp * CF

5. Present Value (Mixed series):

solve according to above four

formulas.

6-3

0 10% PV0 6-4 1 2 3 4 5 $10.000 in 5 years at a discount rate of 10%. What will be the PV of $10.000 .1. PV of Single Value.

000 (.210. 5) = $10.6209 6209 6209 .683 0 5 10000 0.9091 0 2 0 0.10)5 = $6.21 Calculation based on Table: PV0 = $10.00 Year CF-AT 6-5 DF@10% [Rounding] PV 0 0 1 0 1 0 0.000 / (1+ 0.209.000 (PVIF10%.8264 0 3 0 0. Calculation based on general formula: PV0 = C/Fn / (1+i)n PV0 = $10.7513 0 4 0 0.621) = $6.

8264 165 3 300 0.2. PV of Un-even C/F What will be the PV of $100.7513 225 481 . 200. 0 6-6 100 200 300 1 2 3 Year C/F DF@10 PV 0 0 1 0 1 100 0.9091 91 2 200 0. 300 occurring in 3 years at a discount rate of 10%. a.

819 164 3 300 0.2. 200. 0 6-7 100 200 300 1 2 3 DF@10.7412 222 477 . Year CF 300 occurring in 3 years at a discount rate of 10.5% PV 0 0 1 0 1 100 0.5%. Un-even C/F when interest rate is in fraction What will be the PV of $100. b.905 91 2 200 0.

3. What is PV of this annuity at interest rate 10% (Ordinary Annuity) End of Period 1 0 1 $1000 Today 6-8 End of Period 2 End of Period 3 2 1000 3 1000 Equal Cash Flows Each 1 Period Apart . a.

n) PVA3 = $1.487 i n 0.PVAn = C/F (PVIFAi%.10 DFA 3 2.624316 Year CF-AT DF@10% PV 0 1-3 6-9 0 1 0 1000 2.3) = $1.000 (2.4869) = $2.486852 2487 2487 .000 (PVIFA10%.

465 Year CF-AT 0 1-3 6-10 DF@10.5% PV 0 1 0 1000 2.n) = $1.3) = $1.000 (PVIFA10.5% PVAn PVA3 = C/F (PVIFAi%.000 (2. b.5%. What is PV of this annuity at interest rate 10.3.2465) = $2.465123 2465 2465 .

Present Value of Infinite series What will be the PV of $70 occurring in infinite years at a discount rate of 10%. PV = CF * DFp PV = 70 * (1/.10) = 70 * (10) = 700 6-11 0 70 70 70 ….4. 1 2 3 …. .

..Find PV of this C/F 0 6-12 100 200 300 1000 1000 1000 70 70 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 …. ……….

0 0 481 6-13 100 200 300 1000 1000 1000 70 70 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 100 200 300 1000 1000 1000 70 70 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2487 700 ….. . ………. ……….

481 2487 0 1 Year 3 2 CF-AT 700 4 6 5 DF@10% PV 0 481 1 481 3 2487 0.7513 1868 6 700 0.5645 395 2744 6-14 7 .

8684 1868 70 5.6447 395 4-6 7-inf ……….7513 225 1000 1.3553 DFp 10 5.1 6 4.8684 Annuity i n 0.9091 91 2 200 0.8264 165 3 300 0.1 Perp i 6 n 0.1 inf Ann-prep-diff DFA 4.3553 0.0 100 200 300 1000 1000 1000 70 70 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Year CF-AT DF@10% PV 0 0 1 0 1 100 0.6447 .4869 1. 2744 Annuity Ann-diff 6-15 i n DFA 0.1 3 2.

Capital Budgeting Techniques 6-16 Project Evaluation and Selection Potential Difficulties Capital Rationing Project Monitoring Post-Completion Audit .

APV 6-17 . NTV.Project Evaluation: Alternative Methods Average Rate of Return Payback Period (PBP) Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Net Present Value (NPV) Profitability Index (PI) Advanced Techniques Discounted PBP. MIRR.

Project Types Independent A project whose acceptance (or rejection) does not prevent the acceptance of other projects under consideration. 6-18 . Best project is selected. “project do not compete with each other” Dependent The acceptance of one project also depends on the acceptance of other project ’(s). Mutually exclusive Compete against each other.

000. 6-19 .000. The initial cash outlay will be $40. BW.000. She has determined that the after-tax cash flows for the project will be $10.000.Proposed Project Data JM is evaluating a new project for her firm. respectively.000. $12. for each of the Years 1 through 5. $15. and $7.000. $10.

of year required to recover initial C/F from future C/F” PBP is the period of time required for the cumulative expected cash flows from an investment project to equal the initial cash outflow.Payback Period (PBP) 0 1 -40 10 2 12 3 4 15 10 5 7 “No. 6-20 .

a: year at which cumulative total does not exceed its ICO b: ICO c: Cumulative total discussed in step-1 d: C/F of following years of commutative total in single C/F column 0 1 2 -40 (-b) 10 10 12 22 Cumulative Inflows 6-21 PBP 3 (a) 15 37 (c) 4 10 (d) 47 =a+(b-c)/d = 3 + (40 .37) / 10 = 3 + (3) / 10 = 3.3 Years 5 7 54 .

[3.5 years. Should this project be accepted? Yes! The firm will receive back the initial cash outlay in less than 3. e.3 Years < 3.5 years for projects of this type.] 6-22 .5 Year Max.g. The management of BW has set a maximum PBP of 3.PBP Acceptance Criterion “Based upon the management”.

In case of annuity PBP = ICO / [CFi (single)] (years) PBP = 600 / 200 = 3 years 6-23 -600 200 200 200 200 0 1 2 3 4 .

PBP Strengths and Weaknesses Strengths: Weaknesses: Easy to use and understand Does not account for TVM Can be used as a measure of liquidity Does not consider cash flows beyond the PBP Easier to forecast ST than LT flows Cutoff period is subjective 6-24 .

Lecture 6: Net Present Value: NPV is the present value of an investment project’s net cash flows minus the project’s initial cash outflow.ICO +.+ n (1+k) NPV = PV of CFi – PV of CFo ... CF1 NPV = (1+k)1 6-25 + CF2 (1+k)2 CFn .

remain same expected rate of return. return will be less than the firm RRR. NPV→’0’. Firm value will . NPV is $ amount of change in the value of firm as a result of undertaking the project. return exceeds the firm RRR. as a result MPS will also increase. Firm value will not change. 6-26 .e. NPV→’-’. the project will add value to the firm. Firm value will ↓. Maximization of wealth of owners. NPV→’+’. More consistent with the goal i. NPV positive means.

885 8850 2 12000 0.5428 3800 NPV -1423 .7831 9397 3 15000 0. -40000 40000 0 10000 12000 15000 10000 7000 1 2 3 4 5 PV of C/Fo ? PV of C/Fi ? Year 6-27 CF-AT 38577 DF@13% PV 0 -40000 1 -40000 1 10000 0.6133 6133 5 7000 0.6931 10397 4 10000 0.NPV Solution BW has determined that the appropriate discount rate (k) for this project is 13%.

6-28 * For M.E projects: rank according to higher NPV .NPV Acceptance Criterion The management of BW has determined that the required rate is 13% for projects of this type. Project: accept NPV>=0. [Reject as NPV < 0 ] * For Ind. This means that the project is reducing shareholder wealth. Should this project be accepted? No! The NPV is negative.

. Accounts for TVM. Considers all cash flows. 6-29 May not include managerial options embedded in the project.NPV Strengths and Weaknesses Weaknesses: Strengths: Cash flows assumed to be reinvested at the hurdle rate.

10 5 IRR NPV@13% 0 -4 6-30 Sum of CF’s 0 3 6 9 12 Discount Rate (%) 15 .Net Present Value Profile Net Present Value $000s 15 Plot NPV for each discount rate.

PI = Benefits / Cost = PV of CFi / PV of CFo Method #1: CF1 PI = (1+k)1 + CF2 CFn +.+ 2 (1+k) (1+k)n << OR >> Method #2: 6-31 PI = 1 + [ NPV / ICO ] ICO . OR BCR : Benefit Cost Ratio.Profitability Index (PI) PI is the ratio of the present value of a project’s future net cash flows to the project’s initial cash outflow...

[Reject as PI < 1.9644 (Method #2) Should this project be accepted? No! The PI is less than 1.000 = .00. This means that the project is not profitable.9644 (Method #1) PI = 1 + (-1423)/ 40.000 = .00 ] 6-32 .PI Acceptance Criterion PI = $38.577 / $40.

PI Strengths and Weaknesses Strengths: Weaknesses: Same as NPV Same as NPV Allows comparison of different scale projects Provides only relative profitability Potential Ranking Problems 6-33 .

OR “The rate at which NPV becomes zero” CF1 CF2 + ICO = (1+IRR)1 (1+IRR)2 6-34 +.+ CFn (1+IRR)n .Internal Rate of Return (IRR): IRR is the discount rate that equates the present value of the future net cash flows from an investment project with the project’s initial cash outflow...

000 + + (1+IRR)3 (1+IRR)4 (1+IRR)5 Find the interest rate (IRR) that causes the discounted cash flows to equal $40.000.000 $40.000 $10. 6-35 .IRR Solution $10.000 = + + (1+IRR)1 (1+IRR)2 $15.000 $12.000 $7.

4 n= CFi CFo IRR 2 3 4 30000 10000 0.1 -10000 0 6-36 30000 1 P:6. IRR = (CFi / CFo)^(1/n) .316074 4 .IRR : Single Value For single value in CFi.

Locate two DFs close to DF in PVIFA table under year n iii. 6-37 .For Annuity Calculate DF = CFo / Annuity ii. Interpolate IRR as: LDR + (∆DRs) (LDF – DF) / (LDF – HDF) or HDR .(∆DRs) (DF – HDF) / (LDF – HDF) i.

4 HDR IRR = 0.3 LDR 2.3524 = 35.5237) = 0.30 + (0.24% .000 HDF 6-38 2.4763) = 0.166 Rate IRR 1.849 0.IRR: Annuity Case: Problem 6.4 -10000 5000 5000 5000 5000 0 1 2 3 4 PVIFA LDF (i) DF Or 0.10) (0.3524 = 35.24% IRR = 0.10) (0.40 – (0.

6-39 it is near to i n Annuity Year 0. Now we Check. Yes 0.349 CF-AT 0 1-4 n DFA 4 2.90%.24% 1. at this rate. at 35. Now. with the help of computer program.9894 PV -10000 1 -10000 5000 1. whether NPV becomes 0.9894 9947 1-4 NPV -53 i Annuity Year 0.24%.24% PV -10000 1 -10000 5000 2.0001 DF@35. whether NPV becomes 0.0001 10001 NPV 1 . IRR is 34.3524 CF-AT 0 DFA 4 DF@35. again we check.

Lecture 7 • IRR : Mixed Stream of C/F. one ‘+’ & other ‘-’ • Interpolate IRR as: LDR + (∆DRs) (|NPVLDR|) / (|NPVLDR|+ |NPVHDR|) Or HDR . with the help of NPV • Calculate Two NPVs.(∆DRs) (|NPVHDR|) /(|NPVLDR|+ |NPVHDR|) 6-40 .

9998 9999 -1 .1662 10831 NPV i Annuity 831 n 4 Diff 0.35 LDR HDR 1.i n Annuity Year DFA 0.91% PV 1 -10000 1.05 IRR 0.9969 9985 NPV 6-41 i PV -15 Annuity Year 0.3491 Check Year CF-AT 0 1-4 DF@35% -10000 1 -10000 5000 1.35 Fraction 0.1662 PV -10000 1 -10000 5000 2.01773 0.9969 Diff 0.05 IRR 0.3 Fraction 0.3491 CF-AT 0 1-4 n -10000 5000 NPV DFA 4 1.3 CF-AT 0 1-4 4 DF@30% 2.3491 OR DFA 0.9998 DF@35.98227 0.

Adjustment in k=Rough IRR [if required] If CFi >FA in earlier years: k=Rough IRR+1… If CFi <FA in earlier years: k=Rough IRR-1… Calculate NPV at k rate (step-iv). v. iv. 6-42 Get Fake Annuity : FA = ΣCFi / n Calculate DF = CFo / FA Find DF in PVIFA table under year n. then IRR = k.IRR : Mixed Stream of C/F i. iii. Then calculate another NPV at (k-5) rate: If NPV>0. Then calculate another NPV at (k+5) rate: [Make sure you have two NPVs. ii. If NPV=0. this will give rough IRR = k. [you are lucky]. . otherwise: If NPV<0 (step-v). vii. one +ve and other-ve]: Interpolate IRR. vi.

11 0.11 .696 Rate=k= 0.7037 step 3 in PVIFA step 4 Adjustment in k= 0 step 5 Find NPV at k= 3.IRR: solution with the help of 7-steps 6-43 -40000 10000 12000 15000 10000 7000 0 1 2 3 4 5 step 1 FA 10800 step 2 DF 3.

+ Find NPV at k= 0.6407 9611 0.8116 9739 0.7212 10818 4 10000 0.6468 6468 5 7000 0.11 NPV 458 HDR 0.8042 9650 3 15000 0.16 NPV -3994 LDR 6-44 Diff 0.8621 8621 0.11 PV Check 0.11 Fraction 0.5935 4155 0.8968 8968 2 12000 0.4761 3333 0.58 4060 NPV 458 NPV -3994 NPV -36 step 6 Now NPV.1151 PV 0 -40000 1 -40000 1 -40000 1 -40000 1 10000 0.9009 9009 0.102875 IRR 0.7312 10968 0.7432 8918 0.16 step 7 LDR 0.step 5 Year step 6 CF-AT 0.5523 5523 0.05 0.1151 .6587 6587 0.16 PV 0.

51% for each dollar invested in this project at a cost of 13%. [ IRR < Hurdle Rate ] 6-45 .IRR Acceptance Criterion The management of BW has determined that the hurdle rate is 13% for projects of this type. Should this project be accepted? No! The firm will receive 11.

3 Year 6-46 Net C/F .2169 step 3 in PVIFA step 4 Adjustment in k 0 step 5 Find NPV at k= 0.14 4.14 . C/F 1 8000 5600 2400 816 7184 2 8000 8960 -960 -326 8326 3 8000 5376 2624 892 7108 4 8000 3226 4774 1623 6377 5 8000 3226 4774 1623 6377 6 8000 1612 6388 2172 5828 7 8000 0 8000 2720 5280 step 1 FA 6640 step 2 DF 4.P:6.Tax Inc.288 rate = k = 0.Depr. = CF_BT .

14 Fraction 0.361798 IRR 0.5921 3776 0.7456 6208 3 7108 0. + Find NPV at k= 0.19 PV 0.419 2672 0.1581 PV 0 -28000 1 -28000 1 -28000 1 -28000 1 7184 0.14 PV 0.3579 1890 NPV 1360 NPV -2399 NPV -101 step 6 Now NPV.19 NPV -2399 LDR 6-47 Check Diff 0.4556 2655 0.7062 5880 0.3521 2052 0.2959 1562 0.5559 3545 5 6377 0.4987 3180 0.1581 .48 3061 6 5828 0.8772 6302 0.3996 2110 0.8403 6037 0.5194 3312 0.6438 4576 4 6377 0.8635 6203 2 8326 0.5934 4218 0.14 NPV 1360 HDR 0.7695 6407 0.step 5 step 6 Year CF-AT .05 0.19 step 7 LDR 0.4145 2416 7 5280 0.675 4798 0.

but overall do not change firm value. Difficulties with project rankings and Multiple IRRs .IRR Strengths and Weaknesses Strengths: 6-48 Accounts for TVM Considers all cash flows Less subjectivity Weaknesses: Assumes all cash flows reinvested at the IRR smaller project may have higher IRR.

51% 13% Reject NPV -$1.3 3.96 1.423 $0 Reject PI .00 Reject .5 Accept IRR 11.Evaluation Summary BW Independent Project Method Project Comparison Decision 6-49 PBP 3.

Potential Problems

Under Mutual Exclusivity

Ranking of project proposals may

create contradictory results.

A. Scale of Investment

B. Cash-flow Pattern

C. Project Life

6-50

A. Scale Differences

Compare a small (S) and a

large (L) project.

END OF YEAR

6-51

**NET CASH FLOWS
**

Project S

Project L

0

-$100

-$100,000

1

0

0

2

$400

$156,250

Scale Differences

Calculate the PBP, IRR, NPV@10%,

and PI@10%.

Which project is preferred? Why?

6-52

Project

IRR

S

100%

L

25%

NPV

$

PI

231

3.31

$29,132

1.29

END OF YEAR 6-53 NET CASH FLOWS Project D Project I 0 1 -$1.000 -$1.B. Cash Flow Pattern Let us compare a decreasing cash-flow (D) project and an increasing cash-flow (I) project.200 1.200 100 2 500 600 3 100 1.080 .

17 I 17% $198 1. NPV@10%.Cash Flow Pattern Calculate the IRR.17 . and PI@10%. Which project is preferred? Project 6-54 IRR NPV PI D 23% $198 1.

375 0 .C.000 2.000 2 0 0 3 3.000 0 -$1. END OF YEAR 6-55 NET CASH FLOWS Project X Project Y 0 1 -$1. Project Life Differences Let us compare a long life (X) project and a short life (Y) project.

Project Life Differences Calculate the PBP.82 . and PI@10%.536 2. Which project is preferred? Why? 6-56 Project IRR NPV PI X 50% $1. NPV@10%.54 Y 100% $ 818 1. IRR.

Capital Rationing Capital Rationing occurs when a constraint (or budget ceiling) is placed on the total size of capital expenditures during a particular period.. 6-57 Example: JM must determine what investment opportunities to undertake for BW Co. She is limited to a maximum expenditure of $32.500 only for this capital budgeting period. .

000 7.000 2.500 25.10 6.500 1.000 1.24 .000 1.04 21.10 5.500 15.67 500 1.500 2.000 IRR 18% 25 37 20 26 28 19 15 NPV $ PI 50 1.40 7.Available Projects for BW Project A B C D E F G H 6-58 ICO $ 500 5.500 2.000 17.000 5.500 12.43 6.30 5.

000 37% 28 26 25 $ 5.500 outlay.000 12.500 21. 6-59 .000 500 6.04 2. F. The resulting increase in shareholder wealth is $27. and E have the three largest IRRs.10 2.000 with a $32.500 5.Choosing by IRRs for BW Project C F E B ICO IRR NPV PI $ 5.40 1.000 15.500 2.30 Projects C.

The resulting increase in shareholder wealth is $28.000 IRR NPV PI 28% 19 25 $21.500 outlay.Choosing by NPVs for BW Project F G B ICO $15.000 7. 6-60 .40 1.000 17.500 2.30 Projects F and G have the two largest NPVs.500 with a $32.500 5.43 2.500 6.

500 28% 25 37 20 19 $21.10 1. and D have the four largest PIs.000 7.000 with a $32.500 outlay.500 5.43 Projects F.Choosing by PIs for BW Project F B C D G ICO IRR NPV PI $15. 6-61 .000 7. The resulting increase in shareholder wealth is $38.500 2.500 5.40 2.000 6. C.30 2. B.67 1.000 5.500 17.000 5.

and D $38.000 NPV F and G $28. and E $27. B.000 PI generates the greatest increase in shareholder wealth when a limited capital budget exists for a single period. 6-62 . C. F.Summary of Comparison Method Projects Accepted Value Added PI F.500 IRR C.

Identify any project weaknesses Develop a possible set of corrective actions Provide appropriate feedback Result: Making better future decisions! 6-63 .Post-Completion Audit Post-completion Audit A formal comparison of the actual costs and benefits of a project with original estimates.

Multiple IRR Problem* Let us assume the following cash flow pattern for a project for Years 0 to 4: -$100 +$100 +$900 -$1. 6-64 .000 How many potential IRRs could this project have? Two!! There are as many potential IRRs as there are sign changes.

8 4000 2 -5000 0.04 -200 NPV 6-65 0 0 .64 -3200 NPV Year CF-AT DF@400% PV 0 -800 1 -800 1 5000 0.2 1000 2 -5000 0.Multiple IRR example P:6-10 Year CF-AT DF@25% PV 0 -800 1 -800 1 5000 0.

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