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New Zealand has a wide variety of Takeaway outlets.

These food outlets


provide NZ'ers with decent food which could be bought to satisfy those
families having a party, as a treat or those who have limited time to cook.
My Hypothesis/Predicton is: For the first quarter of the year 2013, the
Takeaway Sales would have a range between $thousands 500-600. I will
be using iNZight to prove whether my hypothesis is correct or not and
whether it is accurate or not. My variables will be time in X axis,
(measured in years starting from 2002 and will be measured every 2
years) and Takeaway sales measured in $thousands (on Y axis). The
purpose of my investigation is to predict what the projected sales for the
first quarter of 2013 would be.

Trend
Data:

and Raw

From
the raw data
of the
decomposed graph, we can see that from the raw data, it seems to
peak at $400k in the year 2012 and has a low of $180k. The trend shows
an increasing one from a low of $180k to a high $400k. The Long term
trend shows a gradual increase over a 5-6 year period. This represents
an increase in the amount of takeaway sales over the course of 5-6
years. I have calculated roughly the contributions of each component
and have displayed them on the table below:
DataType
and Units
Raw
Trend

Minimum

Maximum

Range

180
180

400
375

220
195

Seasonal
Residual

-10
-9

10
10

0
1

% - Raw
data
Approx
88.8%
0%
Approx
0.45

Every 2 years, the average increase of sales seems to be $50k. This


happens at a constant rate.

Seasonal:
The seasonal swing has a fairly
consistent rise and drop pattern.
From the Decomposition, we can
almost see that every start of the
new year, the Seasonal swing
starts on the low (-10) and half
way through that same year, it
peaks at (10). That means it is
almost possible to predict when the
Seasonal high and low values can occur
every year. There are a total of 2 seasonal variations per year. This can
be classified as low for the first half of the year and high for the second
half of that same year. Research suggests that this occurrence happens
because most people are away during the Summer months (start of the
year) therefore, Takeaway sales decrease. However, during the winter
months, the Takeaway sales increase. This could be the result of the
winter season where most people stay put.
Residuals:

Relative Contribution:

Seasonal Plot:

Estimated Seasonal Plot

Prediction
fit

upr

lwr

2012 Q1 382.5116 404.0810 360.9422


2012 Q2 392.2066 419.2089 365.2044
2012 Q3 408.5037 440.0157 376.9918
2012 Q4 425.8550 461.3076 390.4024
2013 Q1 410.4666 451.9650 368.9681
2013 Q2 420.1616 464.7262 375.5970
2013 Q3 436.4587 483.8917 389.0258
2013 Q4 453.8100 503.9475 403.6725

From
the Prediction
above, it
shows that
for the first
Quarter of
2013, the
Takeaway
Sales
have a low
of $368k
and a high
$451.9k.
Although I
have what I have
predicted was over
and
would be better suited for the fourth
quarter of the 2013 year, I
do believe this is an accurate prediction as the raw data and the trend
line both have a steady increasing function thus, there is evidence that
suggest that the prediction for the year 2013 would continue to have a
steady and increasing rate.