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Marc 31 2015

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Volume 5, Issue I
Daily Exclusive

ORYZA Rice
Newsletter

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Brazil Rice Stocks Decline Sharply in


February 2015
Mar 30, 2015

Brazil rice stocks have declined sharply to around 135,717 tons in February 2015, down about
44% from around 240,544 tons in January 2015 and down about 77% from around 582,298 tons
in February 2014, according to the country's national grain supplying agency Conab.

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According to Conab, rice stocks with the Selling Option Contract of Agricultural Products
(OPCAO) have declined to around 81,671 tons in February 2015, down about 40% from around
137,089 tons in January 2015 and down about 77% from around 361,050 tons in February 2014.
Rice stocks with Federal Government Acquisition (AGF) stood at around 53,193 tons in
February 2015, down about 48% from around 102,519 tons in January 2015 and down about
76% from around 218,302 tons in February 2014. Rice stocks with farmers (Agricultural
Familiar) stood at around 853 tons in February 2015, down 9% from around 936 tons in January
2015 and about 71% from around 2,946 tons in February 2014.CONAB has forecasted the
country's 2014-15 paddy rice production at around 12.152 million tons (around 8.26 million tons,
basis milled), slightly up from around 12.122 million tons (around 8.24 million tons, basis
milled) in 2013-14. USDA estimates Brazil MY 2014-15 (April March) paddy rice production
at around 12.206 million tons (around 8.3 million tons, basis milled), unchanged from MY 201314.

FAO Forecasts Bangladesh 2014-15 Rice


Imports at 700,000 Tons, Down 36% from
Last Year
Mar 30, 2015

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In its latest country brief on Bangladesh, the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization
(FAO) forecasts Bangladesh rice imports to decline to around 700,000 Tons in 2014-15 (July June), down about 36% from an estimated 1.1 million tons in the previous year due to an
expected increase in production in during the year.The FAO estimates the South Asian nation's
total 2014-15 cereal imports to decline about 3.7% to around 3.68 million tons from last year's
3.82 million tons.
The UN agency estimates Bangladesh 2014 paddy production from all three crops - Aman (April
- December), Aus (February - August) and Boro (October - May) - at around 52.2 million tons
(around 34.97 million tons, basis milled), up about 1.3% from an estimated 51.539 million tons
(around 34.531 million tons, basis milled). Aman, Aus and Boro account for around 38%, 7%
and 55% respectively, of Bangladesh's annual paddy production.
Harvesting of the 2015 Boro rice crop will start shortly and will continue till the end of May.
Adequate water supplies, coupled with overall good inputs availability, including fertilizer, seeds
as well as power and diesel for irrigation, benefited planting operations and crop development,
according to the FAO. However, localized crop losses are expected in some northern districts
where civil protests have led to disruptions in supply of fertilizers and fuel. The 2015 Boro rice
acreage increased slightly y/y to around 4.83 million hectares, according to the FAO.
Domestic rice prices, which have been declining since March 2014 had reversed
in August 2014 and reached a high of about 31,697 Taka (around $410) per ton in September
2014. They again started declining from November 2014 and currently they stand at about
26,463 Taka (around $340) per ton, down about 5% from about 27,750 Taka (around $357) per
ton in February 2015 and down about 16% from their year-ago levels.
Meanwhile, the government of Bangladesh is planning to procure one million tons of 2015 Boro
paddy and 100,000 tons of Boro rice between May 1, 2015 and August 31, 2015. It has fixed the
procurement price for paddy at Tk 22 per kilogram (around $283 per ton) and that for rice at Tk
32 per kilogram (around $412 per ton).USDA estimates Bangladeshs MY 2014-15 (July 2014
June 2015) milled rice production to slightly increase to about 34.6 million tons from an
estimated 34.39 million tons in MY 2013-14. It estimates Bangladesh to import 678,000 tons of
rice in 2014 and around 500,000 tons of rice in 2015.

India Average Wholesale Rice Prices Increase


in March 2015
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Mar 30, 2015

India average wholesale rice prices, which increased in January 2015 and declined in February
2015 due to increased supplies and declining export demand, have again increased in March
2015 due expected lower production from ongoing Rabi secondary rice crop (November - May),
according to official sources. Planting for the current Rabi crop is lagging by about 412,000
hectares, or about 9.5% from the same time last year.Average monthly wholesale rice prices in
India declined to around Rs.2,746.16 per quintal in March 2015, up about 1.2% from around
Rs.2,714 per quintal in February 2015, and down about 2.7% from their year-ago levels of
around Rs.2,821 per quintal.
In terms of USD per ton, wholesale rice prices in India stand at around $444 per ton (using
current exchange rates) in March 2015, up about 1.4% from around $438 per ton (using
historical exchange rates) in February 2015, and down about 5.5% from around $470 per ton
(using historical exchange rates) in March 2014. The government of India, in its second
advance estimates for major crops, has estimated India's rice production for 2014-15 marketing
year (October 2014 - September 2015) at around 103.04 million tons, down about 3% from an
estimated 106.65 million tons in 2013-14, according to a statement from the Agriculture
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Ministry. It estimates around 88.02 million tons from kharif rice crop and around 15.02 million
tons from rabi rice crop.
USDA estimates India's 2014-15 (October - September) production at around 102.5 million
tons, down about 4% from an estimated 106.54 million tons in 2013-14. It estimates Indias rice
exports to decline about 11% y/y to around 9 million tons in 2015 from an estimated 10.15
million tons in 2014.

Government of Sri Lanka Plans to Revive


Small, Medium Rice Mills
Mar 30, 2015

The government of Sri Lanka has decided to revive the small and medium scale rice mills, which
were closed down few years back, through a concessionary loan scheme, according to a news
release on the official news portal of Sri Lanka.The government has introduced the
concessionary loan scheme from March 27, according to the news release. The Food Security
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Minister was quoted as saying that the loan would be provided to small and medium rice mill
owners through the Bank of Ceylon and the Peoples Bank under the supervision of the Central
Bank.
The Minister noted that the small mills revival plan is part of the efforts to stabilize price during
the festive season by revitalizing the closed mills and enabling them to supply sufficient rice
stocks to meet the local demand. He added that the move would bring down the prices, which
were pushed up recently due to the manipulation of supply and demand by some market
players.Local rice prices, which reached a high or about Rs.78,560 (around $600) per ton in
September 2014, have already started coming down and stood at about Rs.73,770 (around $550)
per ton in March 2015, according to data from the UNs Food and Agriculture Organization
(FAO). However, they are about 9% higher than their year-ago prices.

IPAB Adjourns Hearing On Pakistan Petition


Against Indias GI Application for Basmati
Rice
Mar 30, 2015

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The Basmati Growers Association (BGA) of Pakistan has challenged the application filed by
India's Agricultural and Processed Food Products Exports Development Authority (APEDA)
with the Intellectual Properties Appellate Board (IPAB), which has accepted its petition last
month.
However, the IPAB has reportedly adjourned the hearing on the application filed by the BGA
challenging the grant of geographical indication (GI) tag for basmati rice grown in India, which
came for hearing in the last week of February 2015. The IPAB had adjourned the hearing to July
8, 2015.The BGA noted in its application that "basmati was name for slender, aromatic and long
grain variety of rice grown in specific geographical areas in the foothills of Himalayas in
Pakistan" and granting a GI tag for India's basmati would affect basmati rice farmers in Pakistan.
It also noted that basmati rice grown in Pakistan is already protected under section 24 (9) of
Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) under the World
Trade Organization (WTO).
A GI label certifies the geographical origin of a product and confirms adherence to some
production standards. It also prevents producers who aren't covered by the tag from using the
same thereby providing a legal protection to the cultivation and use of the specific product.
India's petition to grant a legal protection to basmati rice is being delayed since 2009, when the
APEDA applied for the GI protection for the first time.

Oryza Overnight Recap Chicago Rough


Rice Futures Little Changed, Despite
Rallying Grains
Mar 30, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery are currently seen 1.5 cents per cwt (about $0.33 per
ton) lower at $10.975 per cwt (about $242 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The
other grains are seen trading higher: soybeans are currently seen about 0.8% higher, wheat is
listed about 3% higher and corn is currently noted about 0.4% higher.U.S. stocks rebounded on
Monday, encouraged by talks of stimulus in Asia, as investors eyed the week's economic data.
European stocks climbed amid encouraging euro zone economic reports. China's benchmark
Shanghai Composite index hit a fresh seven-year high as markets interpreted weekend comments
from Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People Bank's of China, as indication of further stimulus.

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Zhou warned on Sunday that the world's second-largest economy needs to be vigilant for signs of
deflation.
The Dow Jones industrial average leaped more than 250 points in the minutes following the
open. Personal income in February was mostly in-line with consensus, posting a gain of 0.4%,
above expectations of 0.3%. Consumer spending rose 0.1%. Pending homes sales were up
3.1%.The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 226 points, or 1.30%, at 17,942. The S&P
500 traded up 19 points, or 0.94%, at 2,080, as energy led gains across all sectors. The Nasdaq
traded up 44 points, or 0.90%, at 4,935. Gold is currently trading about 1.2% lower, crude oil is
seen trading about 0.6% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.6% higher at
9:00am Chicago time.

Thai Rice Panel Allots $18 Million to


Subsidize Interest Costs of Millers
Mar 30, 2015

The Rice Policy Committee in Thailand has approved a budget of about 582 million baht (around
$18 million) to subsidize interest costs of millers, Bloomberg quoted the Permanent Secretary for
Commerce as saying.The military government is encouraging millers to store rice during the
harvest season in order to curb price falls due to increased supplies by providing low interest

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loans.The government allotted around 315 million baht (around $9.7 million) in the last cropping
season in September last year to store 2 million tons of rice for six months.

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Little


Trading ahead of USDA Projected Acres
Mar 30, 2015

The U.S. cash market was slightly firmer today however most buyers and sellers were on the
sidelines today waiting to see the results of the USDA projected acreage report due out tomorrow
morning.Analysts note that overwhelming consensus in the industry is that the USDA will show
a decrease in next years acreage however guesses range from a 2% reduction to as much as
10%.

Thailand Develops Pest and Cold Resistant


Rice Variety
Mar 30, 2015

Thailand's Pathum Thani Rice Research Center has developed a new rice variety - called Thani
200 or Kor. Khor.57 - that can withstand colder climates as well as resistant to pests, according
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to local sources.The Director of the Rice Center, a unit of the Rice Department, noted that the
new rice variety is a hybrid of the popular Suphanburi 1 and IR 64 strains. He added that the
researchers of the Rice Center have taken more than a decade to develop this variety.He also
noted that the new hybrid variety is resistant to brown planthopper and is suitable for growing in
provinces with colder climatic conditions. The Director said the new variety is also suitable for
making by-products such as rice flour. He noted that the Department is planning to produce the
new variety as rice seed before distributing it to farmers.
According to the Director, the Rice Department currently faces a shortage of rice seeds by about
500,000 tons annually and fills the demand from private companies. He noted that the
introduction of the new variety also may not reduce the problem of seed shortfalls. The Rice
Department currently spends about 5 baht per kilogram (around $153 per ton) for Hom Mali rice
seed, 16-17 baht per kilogram (around $491-$522 per ton) for white rice seed and 22 baht per
kilogram (around $675 per ton) for glutinous rice seed.

TREA Foresees Low Export Demand for


Thai Rice to Continue in Second Quarter of
2015

Mar 30, 2015

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The Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA) expects low export demand for Thai rice to
continue in the 2015 second quarter as well due to a tougher competition, according to local
sources. The TREA President told local sources last week that the association is expecting
Thailand to export around 750,000 - 800,000 tons of rice in March 2015 as many of its
traditional importers are shifting to India and Pakistan due to lower prices. He also noted that
increasing supplies from Vietnam's winter-spring crop are likely to further bring down the export
prices of Vietnamese rice consequently putting a pressure on the volume of Thai rice exports. He
added that most of the rice importers are holding on their purchase decisions in expectation of
price falls.
The Association President also noted that most of the African countries, which are traditional
buyers of Thai rice have been facing sluggish economies due to oil price declines. As most of
these nations trade in euro, depreciation of euro against dollar has been forcing them to place
orders for a short period. These developments may affect Thailands plans to export 11 million
tons of rice this year, say local sources.
Thai rice exporters have also urged the government to postpone the third rice auction to avoid a
further downward pressure on rice prices. The Thai government sold about 1.18 million tons of
rice from five auctions raising around 17.21 billion baht (around $528 million) since it seized
power in May 2014. The government received bids for around 780,000 tons of around one
million tons auctioned on March 6, 2014. It approved sale of 700,000 tons at about $367.45 per
ton raising about 8.37 billion baht ($257.22 million), Reuters quoted the Director General of the
Foreign Trade Department as saying.
The Thai government is currently holding over 17 million tons of rice in its stockpiles and is
planning to sell around 10 million tons of rice this year and around 7 million tons next year.
Thailand recently won a tender to supply 200,000 tons of rice to the Philippines and has signed a
deal to export 2 million tons of rice to China this year.
Domestic prices of Thai 5% rice fell below 11,600 baht (around $363) per ton compared to
around 12,300 baht (around $379) per ton last month, according to local sources. Export prices
of Thai 5% rice currently stands at around $390 per ton compared to export prices of India 5%
rice, Pakistan 5% rice and Vietnam 5% rice at around $380 per ton, $355 per ton and $368 per
ton respectively.Separately, the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) is likely to consider an
impeachment motion this week against the former Commerce Minister, former Deputy
Commerce Minister and former Department of International Trade Chief for alleged corruption
in rice scheme.

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Vietnam Exports About 719,171 Tons Rice


During January 1 March 26, 2015
Mar 30, 2015

Vietnam exported about 719,171 tons of rice in January 1 - March 26, 2015, down about 41%
from about 1.22 million tons of rice exported in in first three months of 2014, according to data
from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA). Average rice export price so far in this year stands at
about $426 per ton (FOB), down about 1.6% per ton from same time last year.
During March 1-26, 2015, Vietnam exported about 294,449 tons of rice, down about 50% from
about 583,294 tons rice exported in full month of March 2014, and up about 47% from about

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200,814 tons rice exported in full month of February 2015. Average export prices in March stand
at about $389 per ton, down about 11% per ton from a year ago, and down about 15% per ton
from a month ago.

About 1.01 Million Tons of Italy's 2014-15


Paddy Crop Sold as of March 24, 2015; Up
9% from Last Year

Mar 30, 2015

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About 1.01 million tons, or about 71.54% of total Italian 2014-15 (September 2014 - August
2015) paddy crop has been sold out as of March 24, 2015, up about 9% from around 915,740
tons sold during the same period last year, according to data from the Ente Nazionale Risi, the
National Agency for Rice.Around 436,350 tons of Long-A varieties; 292,069 tons of Long-B
varieties; 259,594 tons of round paddies and 22,338 tons of medium varieties have been sold
since the beginning of this crop year. Loto-Ariete, with 158,859 tons and Arborio-Volano, with
65,670 tons remained the best sold varieties year to date.
During the week March 17, 2015 - March 24, 2015, a total of around 35,915 tons of paddy were
sold. The week's sales included about 14,207 tons of Long A, about 9,770 tons of Long B, about
11,557 tons of round paddy and 381 tons of medium paddy. Loto-Ariete, with 7,680 tons and
Arborio-Volano, with 2,385 tons remained the best sold varieties during the week.
A total of around 1.412 million tons of paddy are available as beginning stocks for 2014-15,
down about 4% from around 1.466 million tons available last year. Around 401,978 tons or
about 28.46% of total stocks are yet to be sold. Italian rice growers have ended ploughing rice
fields and seeding is likely to begin for the 2015 paddy crop, according to Ente Nazionale Risi,
the National Agency for Rice.

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough


Rice Futures Recover Friday's Losses as
Traders Prepare for Tomorrow's Planting
Intentions Report
Mar 30, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery settled 13 cents per cwt (about $3 per ton) higher at
$11.120 per cwt (about $245 per ton). Rough rice futures retraced losses sustained on Friday
after dipping just below Fridays low as the market charted an outside day. Overall the market
has been trapped in a sideways back-and-forth trading pattern over the last five trading sessions
as traders made last minute adjustments to their positions ahead of tomorrows planting
intentions report.
Technically todays action is seen as a positive development as prices managed to close back
above the psychologically significant $11.000 per cwt (about $243 per ton) level. However
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before an extended bullish move will get underway traders would like to see a breaking and close
above overhead resistance at $11.160 per cwt (about $246 per ton) as confirmation. The other
grains also closed higher, led by a big rally in wheat; Soybeans closed about 0.1% higher at
$9.6775 per bushel; wheat finished about 4.4% higher at $5.3025 per bushel, and corn finished
the day about 0.9% higher at $3.9450 per bushel.
U.S. stocks rebounded on Monday, amid encouraging talk of stimulus in Asia, as investors eyed
the week's economic data. Personal income in February was mostly in-line with consensus,
posting a gain of 0.4%, above expectations of 0.3%. Consumer spending rose 0.1%. Pending
homes sales were up 3.1% in February, driven primarily by sales in the West and Midwest.
Tuesday marks the end of the first quarter, and few earnings are expected in the abbreviated
trading week.
The primary data point for the week is the key March employment report, which comes out on
Friday when markets are closed for Good Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up
280 points, or 1.58%, at 17,992. The S&P 500 traded up 25 points, or 1.26%, at 2,087, as energy
led gains across all ten sectors. The Nasdaq traded up 52 points, or 1%, at 4,943. Gold is trading
about 1.3% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 0.4% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading
about 0.7% lower at about 2:00pm Chicago time.Friday, there were 407 contracts traded, up
from 343 contracts traded on Thursday. Open interest the number of contracts outstanding on
Friday increased by 8 contracts to 8,952.

Vietnam Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their


Quotes; Pakistan Rice Sellers Lower Some of
Their Quotes Today
Mar 30, 2015

Vietnam rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice and 100% broken rice by about $5
per ton each to around $365 - $375 per ton and $310 - $320 per ton respectively today. Pakistan
rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5% broken , 25% broken rice and 100% broken rice by
about $15 per ton, $10 per ton and $5 per ton to around $350 - $360 per ton, $320 - $330 per ton
and $280 - $290 per ton, respectively, today. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly
unchanged today.
5% Broken Rice

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Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton, about a $20 per ton premium on
Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $365 - $375 per ton, up about $5 per ton from Friday. India
5% rice is indicated at around $375 - $385 per ton, about a $25 per ton premium on Pakistan 5%
rice shown at around $350 - $360 per ton, down about $15 per ton from Friday.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $370 - $380 per ton, about a $30 per ton premium on
Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $340- $350 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around
$340 - $350, about a $20 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $320 - $330
per ton, down about $10 per ton from Friday.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton. India parboiled rice is
indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton, about a $15 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice
shown at around $385 - $395 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $320 - $330 per ton, about a $10 per ton
premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $310 - $320 per ton, up about $5 per
ton from Friday. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $275 - $285 per ton, about a $5
per ton discount to Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $280 - $290 per ton, down
about $5 per ton from Friday.

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