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Tightening credit, jittery markets — but is it really 2003 all over again?
By Matthew Saltmarsh One of the most important reasons for global sales at ¤200 billion in top-end again this month. And there are reports
the relatively positive outlook, analysts High-end spending fashion, accessories and jewelry. of slower sales of top end U.S. property
PARIS said, is the continued growth in high net Since the 2002 to 2004 slowdown, an- in places like Long Island in New York.
f purveyors of the fine things in worth individuals — the consumers of Annual sales growth of luxury goods Consumers of luxury goods, nual growth has been 8 percent and 10 Cynics also point to warning signs of
25
by country/region of origin, 2006
United States
Japan
24%
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percent. For coming years, a similar
trend is expected, even if today’s turmoil
produces just a moderate slowdown.
Huang Sun was encouraged by the
most recent comments from compa-
a bubble in luxury like the recent intro-
duction of faddish investment tools
from new mutual funds to indexes
from banks and exchanges to follow
their progress; these often coincide
ury company Richemont fell by about brand strength and trust, rather than 20 2007 FORECAST: Europe 21 nies like Bulgari, the watchmaker with a top in a market.
12.5 percent. price. And the inhabitants of the king- +11.1% Swatch and Richemont, which all gave Marc Cohen, director of the London
It was not the end of the world; de- dom of Richistan, a term coined by the China 15 ‘‘quite strong’’ assessments of July and luxury goods research agency Ledbury
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mand recovered. But for a sector that journalist Robert Frank, have an in- August sales. Research, is upbeat overall, but he high-
had become used to almost seamless creasingly separate economy from the Russia 6 MasterCard Advisors, the services lighted potential weaknesses to watch.
growth, it was a reality check and rest of society. 10 arm of the card issuer, compiles a broad Firstly, the bonuses that are given out by
Middle East 5
showed specific events could conspire Datamonitor, the business intelli- survey based on aggregate U.S. retail banks tend to be decided in the fall.
to turn sales on their head. gence firm, estimates that the growth of 5 South Korea 3 sales activity. Kamalesh Rao, its direc- Based on the market’s performance over
Richemont, which owns Cartier, Al- high net worth individuals and their tor of research, cited a softening of de- the summer, these will be far smaller
fred Dunhill, Chloé and Montblanc, holdings in Britain and the United States 0 India 1 mand after what he called an ‘‘unsus- than the bumper handouts of early 2007.
was not alone. Sales at competitors was 10 percent to 11 percent a year from tainable’’ summer peak. In July, retail Other analysts, like Bryan Roberts of
from Hermès to Hugo Boss lurched 2002 to 2006. It defines such individuals ’97 ’99 ’01 ’03 ’05 ’07 Other 1 spending on luxury surged 11 percent, the Planet Retail consultancy in Lon-
from comfortable double-digit growth as those with ¤300,000, or $423,000, or Source: Ledbury Research, Merrill Lynch slowing to 6 percent in August, although don, said that the brands that have
rates to static, or worse. The main cul- more in liquid, onshore assets. the figure is much less, only around 2 traded down, albeit inadvertently,
prit then was the downturn in tourism, A similar rate was seen for what percent, if you exclude jewelry. Septem- might be vulnerable to belt-tightening.
triggered by the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist Datamonitor calls the ‘‘liquid wealthy’’ manual jobs, particularly in Europe. decade earlier; the Americans are 17 ber, Rao said, is on course to see growth A corollary of this trend has been
attacks and the outbreak of SARS in — those with ¤50,000 in such assets. In Britain, the gender pay gap has percent, down from 23 percent, and Ja- of 5 percent — a good month, but far that real wealth has become far more
Asia, although the dot-com hangover From now until 2010, Datamonitor been narrowing over the last decade. pan is fairly stable at 21 percent. But the from the blockbuster of July. discerning and seeks exclusivity, expe-
and a sluggish economy in Europe also estimates, growth might slow to 2.5 Measured by the median hourly pay of rest of Asia is 19 percent, up from 12 While all of these factors represent rience, value and originality. This phe-
played their parts. percent to 3 percent, before picking up. full-time employees, the gap closed in percent; and the Middle East and oth- strengths, there are still nagging doubts nomenon has been called ‘‘stea lth
Fast forward to the fall of 2007. Meanwhile, demographics and soci- 2006 to 12.6 percent, its lowest since re- ers are at 6 percent, from 5 percent. amid signs that the most conspicuous of wea lth,’’ or inconspicuous consump-
Tightening credit, edgy equity markets etal changes also augur well. The baby cords began, from 13.0 percent the pre- For Morisset, travel and tourism are consumption in Richistan, emboldened tion. That has prompted some buyers to
and the anticipation of declining prop- boomer generation, those born between vious year, according to the country’s more salient barometers of industry by rising asset prices, has peaked. turn away from the High Street in favor
erty prices are casting a pall. Could it World War II and the mid-1960s, are Office for National Statistics. health than are growth rates or equity Take hedge funds, which have driven of more distinctive brands. In men’s
be 2003 all over again, with purchases now approaching retirement and reach- A slowdown in the U.S. and Euro- prices as so many luxury goods are much of the recent splurge. In August, watches, it might mean a Vacheron
of jewelry, high-end fashion and ac- ing their prime earning age. ‘‘Genera- pean economies, meanwhile, should bought in hotels, airports or exclusive these funds showed a negative return of Constantin, or a wacky design con-
cessories taking a knock? tion X,’’ born in the 1960s to early 1970s, not be as critical as it would have been a shopping districts frequented by tour- 2.5 percent, the largest monthly fall ceived at Franck Muller’s Watchland
The answer is unclear but it is early and ‘‘Generation Y,’’ born since the mid- decade ago, according to Denis Moris- ists. ‘‘For the moment it’s nothing like since 2000, according to the HRFX in- chateau in Genthod, Switzerland.
days in this new financial cycle. 1970s, appear to be more ‘‘aspirationa l,’’ set, executive director of the master’s the situation after 2000,’’ Morisset said. dex of leading funds compiled by Overall, said Huang Sun of Clariden
‘‘It’s a complicated period we’re go- seeking more and better luxury goods if degree program in International Lux- Offering reliable data for the indus- Hedge Fund Research. Leu, the medium-term outlook remains
ing through now,’’ said Marc-André they have the means to acquire them. ury Brand Management at ESSEC Busi- try is not an exact science; it all de- And the most recent auctions of strong, albeit volatile. ‘‘There will be
Kamel, a partner and head of European The closing of the gap in men’s and ness School in Cergy-Pontoise, France. pends on which companies, services trophy wines and art have not fetched bumps in the road, but the risk is
retail at the consultancy Bain & Co. women’s employment and pay rates also A breakdown of sales at the jeweler and sectors are included. Scilla Huang the prices seen early in the year or last mostly on the company level.’’
here. ‘‘I feel you have to keep the faith. is a trend that could favor purchases of Bulgari shows the importance of newer Sun, who manages the $400 million year. An index that shows prices for the ‘‘As long as people remain vain, the
There are reasons to hope that this fashion, jewelry and luxury services as markets. Europe now represents 37 per- Luxury Goods Equity Fund at Clariden best wine vintages, the Liv-ex 100, sector will still be strong. And I don’t
time, things would be less severe.’’ women take more high-skilled, non- cent of all sales, down from 41 percent a Leu Bank in Zurich, estimates annual dropped in August and looks set to fall think human nature is changing.’’