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Practice Midterm

formed by picking 5 members randomly from this group of 12 individuals:

(a) (5pts) What is the probability that the committee has exactly 2 women and 3

men?

(b) (10pts) Two men, Mr. Jones and Mr. Chen, are sworn enemies. What is the

probability that the committee has two women and 3 men, but not both Mr

Jones and Mr. Chen?

(c) (5pts) Given that the randomly picked committee has 2 women and 3 men,

what is the conditional probability that the committee does not have both

Mr Jones and Mr. Chen?

Problem 2 (total: 25 pts) A bin contains three different types of disposable flashlisghts. The

probability that a type 1 flashlisght will give over 100 hours of use is 0.7; the corresponding

probabilities for type 2 and and 3 flashlisghts being 0.4 and 0.3, respectively. Suppose that 20%

of the flashlights in the bin are type 1, 30% are type 2, and 50% are type 3.

(a) (10pts) What is the probability that a randomly chosen flashlight will give more than

100 hours of use?

(b) (15 pts) Given that a randomly picked flashlight lasts over 100 hours, what is the

conditional probability that that it is of type j flashlight for j= 1, 2, and 3?

Problem 3. (15pts) A laboratory blood test is 95% effective in detecting a certain disease when it

is in fact present. (That is, if a person with the disease is tested then with probability 0.95 the test

will come out positive). However, the test also yields a false positive result for 1% of the

healthy persons tested. (That is, if a healthy person is tested, then with probability 0.01, the test

will imply he or she has the disease, i.e., the test will be positive.)

If 0.5% of the population actually has the disease, what is the probability a randomly tested

person actually has the disease given that the test result is positive.

Problem 4. (total: 30 pts) The game of craps is played as follows:

A player rolls two fair dice. If the sum of the dice is either 2, 3, or 12, the player loses;

if the sum is either a 7 or an 11, he or she wins.

If the outcome is anything else, the player continues to roll the two dice until he or she

rolls either the initial outcome or a 7. If the 7 comes first, the player loses; whereas if the initial

outcome reoccurrs before the 7, the player wins.

(a) (5 pts) What is the probability of winning on the first roll of the two dice?

(b) (5 pts) What is the probability of losing on the first roll of the two dice?

EE131A - Probability

Instructor: Professor Roychowdhury

Practice Midterm

(c) (8 pts) Suppose that the first roll of the two dice yields a sum of 5. What is the

probability that the player wins? [Hint: use a geometric law]

(d) (7 pts) Suppose that the first roll of the two dice yields a sum of 6. What is the

probability that the player wins? [Hint: use a geometric law]

(e) (5 pts) Provide a strategy (not necessarily a complete solution) for computing the

winning probability of aa player at the game of craps.

Problem 5. (total: 15 pts) In a randomly shuffled full deck (i.e., comprising all 52 cards), a

player flips through the deck until the Ace of spades shows up.

(a) (8 pts) What is the probability that the very next card is a Two of clubs?

(b) (7 pts) What is the probability that the very next card is an Ace of clubs?

Problem 6. (total: 15 pts) A binary information source (e.g.,a document scanner)

generates very long strings of 0s followed by occasional 1s. Suppose that symbols are

independent and that p = P[symbol = 0] is very close to one. Consider the following

scheme for encoding the run X of 0s between consecutive 1s:

1) If X = n, express n as a multiple of an integer M = 2m and a remainder r, that is,

find k and r such that

, where

;

2) The binary codeword for n then consists of a prefix consisting of k 0s followed

by a 1, and a suffix consisting of the m-bit representation of the remainder r. The

decoder can deduce the value of n from this binary string.

a. Find the probability that the prefix has k zeros, assuming that

.

b. Find the average codeword length when

.

c. Find the compression ratio, which is defined as the ratio of the average run

length to the average codeword length when

.

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