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March 2015

BRS Monthly Market Report

BRS Monthly Market Report


Monthly Market Summary
Market Performance
Political woes affected market sentiment during the month of March, resulting in
both indices plummeting significantly. The ASPI came down by a staggering 480.95
points MoM while the S&P SL20 index dipped 263.45 points MoM.
The ASPI declined below 7,000 while the S&P SL20 index declined below the 4,000
mark during the month. The market capitalization fell below three trillion after
reaching it for the first time in September 2014.
The bourse moved on a slow pace throughout the month with most investors adopting a cautious approach. Activity was limited during the month with total volumes
contracting by 30% MoM to 652mn. Retail participation remained low throughout
the month. However, some interest was evident on low valued counters in the likes
of FLCH, SIRA, CIFL and PAP. FLCH contributed to ~9% of total volume for the month.

Exhibit 1: Monthly Market Snapshot

Closing

Opening

Change %

ASPI

6,820.34

7,301.29

6.60

S&P
SL 20

3,852.43

4,115.88

6.40

Exhibit 2: Monthly Index Performance


S&P SL20

ASPI
7,700

ASPI

4,300

S&P SL20

7,600

The market posted a turnover of LKR 17.27bn during the month with the highest
contribution coming from big wig JKH with a contribution of ~22%. The stock dipped
below the LKR 200 mark to LKR 196.20 towards the end of the month, albeit was
quick to recover. SEYB (N & X) collectively contributed ~14% of market turnover
aided by negotiated deals on the stock. Overall interest was evident on JKH and the
banking sector, albeit on thin volumes.

4,225

7,500
4,150
7,400
7,300

4,075

7,200

4,000

7,100

3,925

7,000
3,850
6,900

The construction and engineering sector declined by 22% MoM influenced by the
dip in price of AEL by LKR 8.00, which closed at LKR 19.20.

6,700
2-Mar-15

Foreigners were active for most part of the month, however a slowdown in activity
was witnessed at the end of March. Foreigners contributed ~31% to turnover and
~13% to volumes during the month. Foreigners were net buyers for the month
amounting to LKR 1.4bn. Average daily turnover for the month amounted to LKR
822mn (-42.2%) from a previous LKR 1.42bn.
Exhibit 4: Monthly Statistical Summary
Mkt.Turnover (LKR)
No. Trading Days
Avg. Daily Turnover (LKR)

17,271,652,394
21
822,459,638

3,775

6,800

3,700
7-Mar-15

11,961,372,352

Domestic Sales (LKR)

13,359,414,469

Foreign Purchases - (LKR)

5,310,280,044

Foreign Sales - (LKR)

3,912,237,927

Op.Index

Vol of turnover
% Vol of foreign turnover to vol of total turnover
Total No. of Trades
Market cap . - (LKR)(opening)
Market cap . - (LKR)(closing)

1,398,042,117
652,305,812
12.94%
100,581

22-Mar-15

27-Mar-15

Cl.Index

Chg %

Banks, Fin. & Ins.

18,982.14

17,735.31

-6.6%

Bev, Food & Tobacco

22,637.75

21,581.15

-4.7%

Chemicals & Phar.

7,367.99

6,880.29

-6.6%

Const. & Eng.

3,396.32

2,655.68

-21.8%

Diversified

1,928.77

1,790.48

-7.2%

Footwear & Textiles

1,005.57

998.34

-0.7%
-7.4%

Healthcare

IT
Inv. Trusts
Land & Prop.
Manufacturing

862.82

799.07

3,431.12

3,281.60

-4.4%

76.67

68.76

-10.3%

20,289.81

18,985.25

-6.4%

741.40

661.15

-10.8%
-5.2%

4,280.90

4,058.60

18,129.93

16,690.78

-7.9%

121,942.68

112,842.18

-7.5%

Plantations

814.76

757.03

-7.1%

Power & Energy

173.22

159.98

-7.6%

Services

27,101.48

26,150.98

-3.5%

Stores & Supplies

26,888.28

23,645.30

-12.1%

207.17

186.55

-10.0%

17,243.32

15,909.18

-7.7%

Motors

Net Foreign Inflow/(Outflow) (LKR)

17-Mar-15

Exhibit 3: Sector Indices

Hotels & Travels

Domestic Purchases (LKR)

12-Mar-15

Oil Palms

3,094,618,736,859

Telecommunications

2,891,168,282,342

Trading

Page 1

March 2015

BRS Monthly Market Report

Key Macroeconomic Indicators


TB Rates (as at 27.03.2015)
91 days

%
6.60

Commercial Bank
Lending Rate (AWPR) - monthly (02.04.2015)

%
6.90

182 days

6.70

Deposit Rate (AWDR) - monthly (31.03.2015)

5.83

364 days

6.80

SLIBOR (as at 31.03.2015)


Overnight

(%)
6.62

7 Days

6.87

1 Month

7.13

3 Months

7.31

6 Months

7.63

12 Months

7.94

Inflation Rate

March

Daily Money Market Rates (31.03.2015)


Market Repo Rate
Max
Min
WAR
Call Market Rate
Max
Min
WAR

%
7.50
6.15
6.40
6.70
6.55
6.64

February
Exchange Rates (27.02.2015)

Colombo Consumer Price Index


(CCPI) - 2006/07 = 100

178.1

178.9

Year on Year Change

0.1

0.6

Annual Average Change

2.5

2.9

Exhibit 5: Inflation

LKR

USD

134.73

GBP

200.03

EUR

146.65

JPY

1.13

Exhibit 6: Exchange Rate Movements

Index Number
(Base: 2006/07=100)

LKR
250

186

LKR./USD

184

230

182

210

LKR./Euro

LKR./BP

180
190

178
176

170

174

150

172
130

170
168

Headline

110

Core

166

90

164

Mar-13

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

Mar-15

Inflation, as measured by the CCPI decreased from 0.6% to 0.1% on


a YoY basis during the month of March. Annual average inflation
further declined to 2.5% in March from 2.9% in February. Core
inflation posted a decline in annual average change to 3.0% while
on a YoY basis core inflation increased to 1.4% from 0.8% a month
ago. The decline was due to the moderation of certain essential
food prices during the month. The decline in fuel and gas prices
also had a positive impact on the non food category during the
month.
Source: CBSL

Source: CBSL

Page 2

March 2015

BRS Monthly Market Report

Key Macroeconomic Indicators


Exhibit 7: Tourist Arrivals
No.

Tourist Arrivals 2012 to Date

200,000
180,000

2012

2013

2014

2015

160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Arrivals in March increased 18% YoY to 157,051, while the first quarter of 2015 depicted a overall growth of 13.6% to 478,838 arrivals. Latin America, Caribbean and Western Europe recorded the highest number of arrivals amounting to 57, 094 posting a 27.4%
growth YoY. UK and Germany were the highest contributors to this segment. South Asia was the second largest contributor of
34,343 arrivals topped by the arrivals from India amounting to 21,838. Arrivals from China (Including Hong kong and Macau) continued to grow steadily posting a YoY growth of 81.5% to 13,975 arrivals.
Source: SLTDA

Exhibit 8: Monthly Foreign Flows - CSE

900

700

500

300
Inflow
100

31-Mar

30-Mar

27-Mar

26-Mar

25-Mar

24-Mar

23-Mar

20-Mar

19-Mar

18-Mar

17-Mar

16-Mar

13-Mar

12-Mar

11-Mar

10-Mar

9-Mar

6-Mar

4-Mar

3-Mar

-100

2-Mar

Outflow

-300

-500

Source: CSE

Page 3

March 2015

BRS Monthly Market Report

Commodity Market Write-up


Exhibit 9: Crude Oil

Exhibit 10: Copper

USD/barrel

USD/MT

125

WTI

115

8750

BRENT

105

8250

95

7750

85

7250

75

6750
65

6250

55

5750

45
35

5250
Mar-13

Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15

Source: US Energy Information Administration, Reuters

Source: London Metal Exchange, www.metalbulletin.com, Indonesian Mining Association

Oil prices plummeted further in the month of March with Brent


prices falling 13% MoM to USD 53.69/bbl and WTI dropping 4%
MoM to USD 47.72/bbl. The drop was mainly due to six world
powers entering into negotiations with Iran for a nuclear deal
that could bring more of its oil to the market with the ease of
sanctions on Iran.

Copper prices were on a downward trend in the recent months


with declining property prices in China, the worlds largest copper consumer. However, the MoM surge in March by 3.9% to
USD 5,925.45/MT is due to supply shortages caused by disruptions to mining output in Chile, Indonesia and Australia.

Exhibit 11: Rubber

Exhibit 12: Tea

LKR/kg

High

LKR

Medium

Low

AVG.

550.00
635
TPC 1X

Skim

RSS 2

555

500.00

475

450.00

395

400.00
315

350.00

235

300.00

155
75
Mar-13

250.00
Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Mar-13

Jun-13

Sep-13

Dec-13

Mar-14

Jun-14

Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Source: Rubber Traders Association, indexmundi

Source: Sri Lanka Tea Board, forbes and walker

Rubber prices further weakened during the month of March


hitting its lowest since 2009. TPC 1X declined 2.0% MoM to LKR
245/kg, Skim rubber plummeted 9.0% MoM to LKR 101.00/kg
and RSS 2 dropped 13.1% MoM to LKR 225.00/kg. The drop in
price was a result of the over supply in top producing countries
leading to imports in to Sri Lanka while the decline in oil prices
led to the reduction in price for synthetic rubber. Rubber production decreased by 24.4% during the month.

Average tea price dipped marginally by 0.6% MoM to LKR


415.64/kg during the month of March. High and medium grown
tea prices dipped 1.9% and 1.1% MoM to LKR 404.54/kg and
LKR 386.26/kg respectively. Low grown tea prices showed some
resilience during the month appreciating 1.9% MoM to LKR
426.30/kg. During the month tea production marginally declined by 0.6% MoM.

Page 4

March 2015

BRS Monthly Market Report

Exhibit 13: BRS Stocks In Focus


MPS

MTD

YTD

Historical

Trailing

Forecasted

Forward

DPS

Dividend

NAV

PBV

(LKR)

change %

Change %

EPS (LKR)

PER (x)

EPS (LKR)

PER (x)

(LKR)

Yield (%)

(LKR)

(x)

Banks, Finance & Insurance


CFIN

250.10

-7.37%

0.04%

31.38

7.97

31.11*

8.04

3.00

1.20%

223.74

1.12

CINS

1,691.70

1.91%

22.69%

96.46

17.54

N/A

N/A

16.00

0.95%

671.02

2.52

CINS(X)

625.00

4.17%

13.64%

96.46

6.48

N/A

N/A

16.00

2.56%

671.02

0.93

COMB

165.40

-7.34%

-3.27%

13.01

12.71

N/A

N/A

6.50

3.93%

70.90

2.33

COMB(X)

131.20

-5.68%

4.88%

13.01

10.08

N/A

N/A

6.50

4.95%

70.90

1.85

DFCC

202.80

-9.46%

-7.40%

11.89

17.06

9.96*

20.36

5.00

2.47%

181.14

1.12

HASU

85.00

-4.49%

1.80%

8.35

10.18

N/A

N/A

3.75

4.41%

48.28

1.76

HNB

222.00

-5.25%

13.90%

24.50

9.06

N/A

N/A

8.50

3.83%

168.67

1.32

HNB(X)

165.00

-8.89%

7.91%

24.50

6.73

N/A

N/A

8.50

5.15%

168.67

0.98

NTB

100.10

-5.03%

3.20%

11.00

9.10

N/A

N/A

2.10

2.10%

60.25

1.66

NDB

248.00

-4.62%

-0.80%

16.04

15.46

N/A

N/A

10.00

4.03%

148.85

1.67

SAMP

252.10

-5.93%

6.69%

31.35

8.04

28.99

8.70

11.00

4.36%

205.53

1.23

SEYB

100.00

1.73%

5.26%

9.21

10.86

N/A

16.39

2.50

2.50%

73.04

1.37

SEYB(X)

63.40

-0.78%

10.26%

9.21

6.88

N/A

10.39

2.50

3.94%

73.04

0.87

JINS

22.50

#N/A

-3.02%

2.92

7.71

2.44

9.22

1.00

4.44%

14.34

1.57

CTC

999.50

-8.40%

-5.72%

46.01

21.72

N/A

39.50

3.95%

20.81

48.03

DIST

240.50

0.21%

14.52%

20.68

11.63

18.36

13.10

3.00

1.25%

201.35

1.19

NEST

2,295.00

-0.93%

9.03%

61.51

37.31

N/A

N/A

60.00

2.61%

77.20

29.73

CIC

76.00

-7.88%

-10.59%

(0.73)

N/M

4.40

17.27

0.00%

71.00

1.07

CIC(X)

57.60

-12.86%

-13.25%

(0.73)

N/M

4.40

13.09

0.00%

71.00

0.81

165.50

-10.54%

-14.25%

12.89

12.84

2.25

73.56

4.00

2.42%

152.65

1.08

CARS

366.40

-11.71%

-14.87%

19.05

19.23

16.89*

21.69

2.00

0.55%

236.79

1.55

HAYL

300.00

-11.76%

-11.74%

24.11

12.44

30.12*

9.96

5.00

1.67%

334.37

0.90

HHL

73.70

-7.53%

-0.81%

3.34

22.07

3.15*

23.40

0.75

1.02%

28.69

2.57

JKH

199.40

-2.59%

-20.24%

12.07

16.52

13.87

14.38

3.50

1.76%

132.21

1.51

SPEN

99.50

-5.33%

-3.86%

9.04

11.01

7.21*

13.80

2.00

2.01%

82.57

1.21

SUN

48.00

-11.93%

-11.11%

4.47

10.74

4.70

10.21

0.95

1.98%

38.35

1.25

Beverage, Food & Tobacco

Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals

Construction & Engineering


DOCK

Diversified

1. Please note that the historical EPS represents the EPS reported for the last financial year, adjusted for non-recurring items, share splits, bonuses and share consolidations.
2. * Annualized EPS
3. ** Companies who have paid both cash and scrip dividends, during the last FY. However, DPS here only represents cash dividend
4. DPS figures represent per share dividend paid during the last FY and are adjusted for splits , bonus issues and share repurchases.

Page 5

March 2015

BRS Monthly Market Report

Exhibit 13: BRS Stocks In Focus


MPS

MTD

YTD

Historical

Trailing

Forecasted

Forward

DPS

Dividend

NAV

PBV

(LKR)

change %

Change %

EPS (LKR)

PER (x)

EPS (LKR)

PER (x)

(LKR)

Yield (%)

(LKR)

(x)

Healthcare
CHL

113.90

3.55%

-2.98%

6.98

16.32

7.85*

14.51

2.00

1.76%

83.89

1.36

75.10

-6.13%

-6.13%

6.98

10.76

7.85*

9.57

2.00

2.66%

83.89

0.90

AHPL

63.00

-7.35%

-7.08%

5.39

11.69

3.88

16.24

4.00

6.35%

49.23

1.28

AHUN

67.00

-14.10%

-14.65%

6.91

9.70

7.60

8.82

1.00

1.49%

45.45

1.47

CONN

71.50

-10.63%

-15.88%

7.83

9.13

8.60

8.31

4.50

6.29%

57.03

1.25

EDEN

21.00

-20.75%

-18.29%

4.16

N/M

N/A

N/A

0.00%

44.94

0.47

KHL

14.30

-13.33%

-15.88%

1.08

N/M

1.34

10.67

0.30

2.10%

12.50

1.14

PALM

45.90

-18.04%

-42.63%

(17.08)

N/M

0.00%

153.78

0.30

SHOT

28.00

-11.95%

-14.63%

0.12

233.33

N/A

N/A

0.00%

17.84

1.57

STAF

56.90

1.07%

3.08%

1.53

37.19

3.59

15.85

1.50

2.64%

37.50

1.52

ACL

76.00

-6.52%

-0.52%

7.40

10.27

6.36*

11.95

1.00

1.32%

104.48

0.73

KCAB

80.00

-4.19%

-10.51%

9.83

8.14

8.80*

9.09

1.50

1.88%

110.21

0.73

LLUB

392.90

-3.94%

-1.68%

21.10

18.62

24.08

16.32

15.00

3.82%

49.57

7.93

LWL

95.80

-3.23%

-1.54%

10.65

9.00

15.59

6.14

2.50

2.61%

113.03

0.85

TJL

24.10

-2.82%

16.99%

1.76

13.69

1.89

12.75

1.30

5.39%

10.27

2.35

RCL

111.00

-6.64%

-5.05%

9.71

11.43

16.94

6.55

1.00

0.90%

103.43

1.07

TKYO

54.90

-8.50%

-15.41%

6.90

7.96

6.90

7.96

1.00

1.82%

28.92

1.90

TKYO(X)

37.40

-13.02%

-20.26%

6.90

5.42

6.90

5.42

1.00

2.67%

28.92

1.29

DIAL

10.40

-13.33%

-21.80%

0.76

13.68

N/A

N/A

0.29

2.79%

5.50

1.89

SLTL

45.50

-6.19%

-8.82%

3.32

13.70

N/A

N/A

0.85

1.87%

35.40

1.29

CHL(X)

Hotels & Travels

Manufacturing

Telecommunications

Plantations
AGAL

27.90

9.41%

2.95%

(9.15)

N/M

N/A

N/A

0.00%

39.82

0.70

KGAL

85.80

-4.67%

-8.72%

13.84

6.20

8.78*

9.77

1.50

1.75%

143.93

0.60

KOTA

24.70

-16.27%

-21.84%

(7.51)

(3.29)

(15.60)*

N/M

0.00%

64.88

0.38

KVAL

71.90

-1.37%

-2.84%

1.47

48.91

N/A

N/A

0.00%

79.55

0.90

MAL

3.70

-15.91%

-17.78%

0.39

9.49

N/A

N/A

0.00%

72.81

0.29

WATA

20.00

0.00%

6.38%

2.10

9.52

2.31*

8.66

0.50

2.50%

18.10

1.10

TPL

35.10

-5.65%

6.36%

7.51

4.67

N/A

N/A

0.00%

67.60

0.52

LIOC

40.30

-11.23%

-32.83%

9.04

4.46

7.37*

5.47

1.50

3.72%

36.03

1.12

HPWR

18.90

4.42%

4.42%

(2.07)

(9.13)

N/A

N/A

0.75

3.97%

19.44

0.97

Power & Energy

1. Please note that the historical EPS represents the EPS reported for the last financial year, adjusted for non-recurring items, share splits, bonuses and share consolidations.
2. * Annualized EPS
3. ** Companies who have paid both cash and scrip dividends, during the last FY. However, DPS here only represents cash dividend
4. DPS figures represent per share dividend paid during the last FY and are adjusted for splits , bonus issues and share repurchases.

Page 6

March 2015

BRS Monthly Market Report

Announcements - Dividends

Company

CODE

Mercantile Investments & Finance PLC


Regnis (Lanka) PLC

DPS (LKR)

Final/ Interim

XD

PD

MERC

17.00

Interim

11.03.2015

19.03.2015

REG

7.00

Final

12.03.2015

19.03.2015

Singer Sri Lanka PLC

SINS

2.50

Final

12.03.2015

19.03.2015

Colombo Dockyard PLC

DOCK

3.00

First & final

12.03.2015

23.03.2015

Sierra Cables PLC

SIRA

0.20

Interim

12.03.2015

23.03.2015

Asiri Hospitals PLC

ASIR

0.50

Interim

18.03.2015

27.03.2015

Asiri Surgical Hospital PLC

AMSL

0.40

Interim

18.03.2015

25.03.2015

Trans Asia Hotels PLC

TRAN

1.50

Interim

18.03.2015

27.03.2015

Sanasa Development Bank PLC

SDB

2.50

Interim

Sanasa Development Bank PLC

SDB

1 for 15.08 shares

Scrip dividend

Lanka Aluminium Industries PLC

LALU

1.50

Interim

19.03.2015

30.03.2015

Overseas Realty (Ceylon) PLC

OSEA

0.50

Interim

07.03.2015

15.05.2015

Asian Hotels & Properties PLC

Subject to approval
Subject to approval

AHPL

1.00

Interim

20.03.2015

31.03.2015

CINS (N & X)

20.00

Final

23.04.2015

05.05.2015

Ceylon Investment PLC

CINV

2.50

Interim

30.03.2015

08.04.2015

Alumex PLC

ALUM

0.42

Interim

02.04.2015

16.04.2015

Ceylinco Insurance PLC

Announcements - Scrip Dividends

Company
Si nha pu th ra Fi na nce PLC

Proportion

XD

1 i nto 10 ordi na ry a n d pre fe re nce


s h a re s

Subje ct to a p prova l

Announcements - Rights Issue

Company
Overseas Rea lty (Ceyl on) PLC

Proportion

Issue Price (LKR)

XR

1 for 19

33.00

Subject to approval

Page 7

March 2015

BRS Monthly Market Report

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315677838

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382239610

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275678995

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DISCLAIMER: In compiling this report, Bartleet Religare Securities (Pvt) Ltd has made every endeavour to ensure its accuracy but cannot hold ourselves responsible for any errors that may be found herein. We further disclaim all responsibility for any loss or damage which may be suffered by any person relying upon such
information or any options, conclusions or recommendations herein whether that loss or damage is caused by any fault or negligence in the part of Bartleet
Religare Securities (Pvt) Limited.
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